The Cubs stand 18-17 record, 3.5 GB the Cardinals in the NL Central.
Some pundits believe that there is no reason to panic. Everything will be fine. The Cubs will come around. The team has too much talent to fail.
Except that is mere hope and expectation. An objective view of the 2017 season finds:
1. 22.8% of the season has been completed.
2. The Cubs record is upside down from last season.
3. The 2016 Cubs had two starters who hit over .290, hit 30 HRs and drove in 100 RBIs.
4. The 2017 club has only one player hitting over .290 or on pace to hit 30 HR (with 7, Bryant).
5. No current player is on pace to drive in 100 RBI.
6. No Cub starting pitcher is on pace to win 20 games, let alone 18 (accomplished by 2 last year).
7. The only starter on pace to exceed his win total from 2016 is Lackey (on +1 pace to win 12 games).
8. There is no current starter on the team who can replace Hammel's 15 win total from 2016.
The 2016 Cubs had a winning percentage of .640 (103 wins). If the Cubs "turn it around," as the bandwagon drivers claim, in the next 125 games, the Cubs would win 80 games for a season total of 98 (5 games worse than last year). However, that means that the Cubs have to win every series played for the rest of the season.
As the team has played, it is more realistic to divide the remaining 125 games by three. 42 games at 66 winning percent; 42 games split; 41 games at 33 percent equals 66 more wins (or a total of 84 wins). The Cubs have not had a long win streak this season. The starting pitching and lack of hitting is the reason. Even if you factor in a 9 game win streak, but a third (33%), third (50%) and third (55%), you project only to 63 more wins or a .500 season.
The major excuse is that Kyle Schwarber will eventually hit and drive base runners from the lead off position. Except, his post season legend is more than his current track record. In 106 major league games, 370 AB, he is only hitting .219 with 21 HR and 57 RBI. In a full 162 game season, that only projects to 32 HR, 87 RBI. In 2017, he is only on pace for 20 HR, 56 RBI.
He may not get more dramatic contact. In 2016, his strike out ratio was 33.2 %. In 2017, his strike out rate is 32.8%. In the next 500 AB, he has a projected chance to make bat-to-ball contact 20 more times, and at his current BA pace - - - 4.38 more hits. Can all four be game winners? Probably not.
Schwarber is not the only player to blame. It is systemic. And if fans do not want to accept that their team is not the same as last season, then you will have something in common with the Giants fans after their post-championship seasons of despair.
Then, there is another view that the Cubs' front office will right the ship by acquiring new starting pitching with all the young talent in their organization. It is clear that the Cubs tried to show case 3B Candelario, but he went 1-7 but showed some above average defense. Happ was brought up and hit a home run in his first game, solidifying the minor league Baby Schwarber bat legend. But the problem with Theo and Jed is that they have fallen in love with their young players so much they won't trade them easily. Especially when they view them as insurance against veteran injury (such as the current MASH unit of Heyward (thumb), Russell (shoulder), Zobrist (back), Jay (back).
The last beef is the remark that the season is still early. People oddly place more significance in late season wins than early season wins. But in a 162 game schedule, wins in April count equally with wins in September. There is no "bonus" fraction for winning games at the end of the season. It is a clouded perception because most fan interest peaks after August when the pennant races come into view.
What were the preseason expectations?
100 win season: need to play .656 baseball (better than last year) to achieve goal
95 win season: need to play .616 baseball to achieve goal
90 win season: need to play .567 baseball to achieve goal
Those figures show how far behind the Cubs currently are in their goal to repeat in the NL Central and contend for a second championship.
If the front office, the fans and commentators are not concerned about the state of the Cubs, then they are a mild state of denial.
