The Cubs stand 18-17 record, 3.5 GB the Cardinals in the NL Central.
Some pundits believe that there is no reason to panic. Everything will be fine. The Cubs will come around. The team has too much talent to fail.
Except that is mere hope and expectation. An objective view of the 2017 season finds:
1. 22.8% of the season has been completed.
2. The Cubs record is upside down from last season.
3. The 2016 Cubs had two starters who hit over .290, hit 30 HRs and drove in 100 RBIs.
4. The 2017 club has only one player hitting over .290 or on pace to hit 30 HR (with 7, Bryant).
5. No current player is on pace to drive in 100 RBI.
6. No Cub starting pitcher is on pace to win 20 games, let alone 18 (accomplished by 2 last year).
7. The only starter on pace to exceed his win total from 2016 is Lackey (on +1 pace to win 12 games).
8. There is no current starter on the team who can replace Hammel's 15 win total from 2016.
The 2016 Cubs had a winning percentage of .640 (103 wins). If the Cubs "turn it around," as the bandwagon drivers claim, in the next 125 games, the Cubs would win 80 games for a season total of 98 (5 games worse than last year). However, that means that the Cubs have to win every series played for the rest of the season.
As the team has played, it is more realistic to divide the remaining 125 games by three. 42 games at 66 winning percent; 42 games split; 41 games at 33 percent equals 66 more wins (or a total of 84 wins). The Cubs have not had a long win streak this season. The starting pitching and lack of hitting is the reason. Even if you factor in a 9 game win streak, but a third (33%), third (50%) and third (55%), you project only to 63 more wins or a .500 season.
The major excuse is that Kyle Schwarber will eventually hit and drive base runners from the lead off position. Except, his post season legend is more than his current track record. In 106 major league games, 370 AB, he is only hitting .219 with 21 HR and 57 RBI. In a full 162 game season, that only projects to 32 HR, 87 RBI. In 2017, he is only on pace for 20 HR, 56 RBI.
He may not get more dramatic contact. In 2016, his strike out ratio was 33.2 %. In 2017, his strike out rate is 32.8%. In the next 500 AB, he has a projected chance to make bat-to-ball contact 20 more times, and at his current BA pace - - - 4.38 more hits. Can all four be game winners? Probably not.
Schwarber is not the only player to blame. It is systemic. And if fans do not want to accept that their team is not the same as last season, then you will have something in common with the Giants fans after their post-championship seasons of despair.
Then, there is another view that the Cubs' front office will right the ship by acquiring new starting pitching with all the young talent in their organization. It is clear that the Cubs tried to show case 3B Candelario, but he went 1-7 but showed some above average defense. Happ was brought up and hit a home run in his first game, solidifying the minor league Baby Schwarber bat legend. But the problem with Theo and Jed is that they have fallen in love with their young players so much they won't trade them easily. Especially when they view them as insurance against veteran injury (such as the current MASH unit of Heyward (thumb), Russell (shoulder), Zobrist (back), Jay (back).
The last beef is the remark that the season is still early. People oddly place more significance in late season wins than early season wins. But in a 162 game schedule, wins in April count equally with wins in September. There is no "bonus" fraction for winning games at the end of the season. It is a clouded perception because most fan interest peaks after August when the pennant races come into view.
What were the preseason expectations?
100 win season: need to play .656 baseball (better than last year) to achieve goal
95 win season: need to play .616 baseball to achieve goal
90 win season: need to play .567 baseball to achieve goal
Those figures show how far behind the Cubs currently are in their goal to repeat in the NL Central and contend for a second championship.
If the front office, the fans and commentators are not concerned about the state of the Cubs, then they are a mild state of denial.
Showing posts with label slow start. Show all posts
Showing posts with label slow start. Show all posts
May 16, 2017
May 2, 2017
IT'S NOT EARLY
"It's still early."
That is the catch phrase from those who want to put pink lipstick on a pig.
The sample size is too small to make accurate projections.
But a month into the season with 25 games played does give one pause to reflect on one's team.
The Cubs are in first place with a meager 13-12 record. The .520 pace is only good for a projected 84 wins, a significant decrease from 2016's 103 victories.
The 2016 Cubs started off to a blazing 25-6 record and never looked back.
So, what is the difference?
One could argue the Cubs are still in championship hangover mode. Spring training was more like spa days for the veterans. There was no competition for starting jobs. The players knew they were good because they had bathed in champagne.
The Cubs returned 4 of the 5 starting pitchers who combined to have an exemplary season. But Brett Anderson, the often injured, new #4 starter replacing Jason Hammel has been a disappointment. He looks a little like Travis Wood, but he throws like an arthritic old man.
But none of the other starters have been very sharp. Velocity has been down. The coaching staff is not worried thinking April would be the month to get past any "dead arm" problems.
The bullpen is currently 4-5 with 4 blown saves. Wade Davis seems to be a good closer when he is on, but there is still times his set up men (Uehara, Strop, Montgomery, Rondon) get lit up.
The defense has been disappointing. Javy Baez has made 3 errors in 39 attempts at second base. It may affect his hitting as he is only at .222 BA, .275 OBP, 2 HR, 6 RBI with 21 strikeouts. But Baez is not the leader in Ks. Contreras has 22K/70 AB; Bryant has 27K/99 AB; and Schwarber has 35 K/97 AB.
The team is 7th in the NL with a team BA of .251 but 12th with 227 strikeouts.
Len Casper said that Joe Maddon believes that putting players in "uncomfortable" defensive positions, i.e. playing outside their natural position, helps them relax at the plate. The concentration on defense takes the pressure off their hitting. In a crazy blow out last night, Maddon had all three of his catchers play new positions: Schwarber made his debut at catcher; Montero played first base; and Contreras played third base. Maddon will be shaking up the line up to get his players to believe the game is still "fun."
When one says it is too early to worry, just remember that games played in April count as much as those played in September. A win is a win and a loss is a loss. Everyone expects the Cubs to play better, especially in a weak division. But April has put the spot light on the team's weaknesses.
That is the catch phrase from those who want to put pink lipstick on a pig.
The sample size is too small to make accurate projections.
But a month into the season with 25 games played does give one pause to reflect on one's team.
The Cubs are in first place with a meager 13-12 record. The .520 pace is only good for a projected 84 wins, a significant decrease from 2016's 103 victories.
The 2016 Cubs started off to a blazing 25-6 record and never looked back.
So, what is the difference?
One could argue the Cubs are still in championship hangover mode. Spring training was more like spa days for the veterans. There was no competition for starting jobs. The players knew they were good because they had bathed in champagne.
The Cubs returned 4 of the 5 starting pitchers who combined to have an exemplary season. But Brett Anderson, the often injured, new #4 starter replacing Jason Hammel has been a disappointment. He looks a little like Travis Wood, but he throws like an arthritic old man.
But none of the other starters have been very sharp. Velocity has been down. The coaching staff is not worried thinking April would be the month to get past any "dead arm" problems.
The bullpen is currently 4-5 with 4 blown saves. Wade Davis seems to be a good closer when he is on, but there is still times his set up men (Uehara, Strop, Montgomery, Rondon) get lit up.
The defense has been disappointing. Javy Baez has made 3 errors in 39 attempts at second base. It may affect his hitting as he is only at .222 BA, .275 OBP, 2 HR, 6 RBI with 21 strikeouts. But Baez is not the leader in Ks. Contreras has 22K/70 AB; Bryant has 27K/99 AB; and Schwarber has 35 K/97 AB.
The team is 7th in the NL with a team BA of .251 but 12th with 227 strikeouts.
Len Casper said that Joe Maddon believes that putting players in "uncomfortable" defensive positions, i.e. playing outside their natural position, helps them relax at the plate. The concentration on defense takes the pressure off their hitting. In a crazy blow out last night, Maddon had all three of his catchers play new positions: Schwarber made his debut at catcher; Montero played first base; and Contreras played third base. Maddon will be shaking up the line up to get his players to believe the game is still "fun."
When one says it is too early to worry, just remember that games played in April count as much as those played in September. A win is a win and a loss is a loss. Everyone expects the Cubs to play better, especially in a weak division. But April has put the spot light on the team's weaknesses.
April 17, 2017
THE HANGOVER
Last season, it took the Cubs 31 games to lose their 6th game of the season.
In 2017, it took 12 games.
A 19 game swing even early in the season is a huge red flag.
There is probably a huge championship hangover, with all the celebrations and
spring press expectations for a repeat.
The players off-seasons were probably quite different than seasons past in having to deal with the celebrity interaction with fans about the championship.
The Cubs were only swept once last season. The Pirates took that honor over the weekend when the Cubs re-tooled bullpen blew up.
Most people believe the Cubs will be fine. The Reds are not sustainable in first place in the NL Central. The Cardinals are in panic mode after dropping to dead last without a pulse. The early season is not a prediction of October. But, every game counts the same in the end. The Cubs are only on pace to win 81 games, which would be a huge nuclear meltdown if it would occur.
There was no drama, no real competition in spring training. It was a quiet, professional work out. The pundits believed that it would take 5 appearances before the pitchers would get into their groove.
The concern about new closer Davis was wrong. He is off to a good start; 1-0, 6 G, 2 SV, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP.
It is the middle of the bullpen that has been surprisingly bad.
Grimm: 6 G, 9.53 ERA, 1.59 WHIP
Strop: 6 G, 0-1, 9.00 ERA , 2.00 WHIP
Uehara: 7 G, 3.18 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
Montgomery, 0-2, 4 G, 3.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
The WHIP numbers indicate control issues which have led to half of the team's current losses.
It looks like the back end of the pen is set with Davis at closer, and Edwards and Rondon as 8th inning set up men. But since Maddon does not want to overtax his starters early in the season, long relievers like Montgomery and Grimm have to step it up. The bridge to the back end of the pen is broken.
What will cure a weak middle bullpen? An explosive offense.
The Cubs team batting average of .240 ranks 7th of 15 in the NL.
The Cubs 47 runs scored is 11th in the NL.
The Cubs 9 HR is last in the NL.
The Cubs OBP of .366 is 3rd in the NL.
The Cubs can get on base, but cannot get timely hitting to score adequate runs.
The tipping point will be May 1. That is when you will really know if your team is a contender or a pretender.
In 2017, it took 12 games.
A 19 game swing even early in the season is a huge red flag.
There is probably a huge championship hangover, with all the celebrations and
spring press expectations for a repeat.
The players off-seasons were probably quite different than seasons past in having to deal with the celebrity interaction with fans about the championship.
The Cubs were only swept once last season. The Pirates took that honor over the weekend when the Cubs re-tooled bullpen blew up.
Most people believe the Cubs will be fine. The Reds are not sustainable in first place in the NL Central. The Cardinals are in panic mode after dropping to dead last without a pulse. The early season is not a prediction of October. But, every game counts the same in the end. The Cubs are only on pace to win 81 games, which would be a huge nuclear meltdown if it would occur.
There was no drama, no real competition in spring training. It was a quiet, professional work out. The pundits believed that it would take 5 appearances before the pitchers would get into their groove.
The concern about new closer Davis was wrong. He is off to a good start; 1-0, 6 G, 2 SV, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP.
It is the middle of the bullpen that has been surprisingly bad.
Grimm: 6 G, 9.53 ERA, 1.59 WHIP
Strop: 6 G, 0-1, 9.00 ERA , 2.00 WHIP
Uehara: 7 G, 3.18 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
Montgomery, 0-2, 4 G, 3.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
The WHIP numbers indicate control issues which have led to half of the team's current losses.
It looks like the back end of the pen is set with Davis at closer, and Edwards and Rondon as 8th inning set up men. But since Maddon does not want to overtax his starters early in the season, long relievers like Montgomery and Grimm have to step it up. The bridge to the back end of the pen is broken.
What will cure a weak middle bullpen? An explosive offense.
The Cubs team batting average of .240 ranks 7th of 15 in the NL.
The Cubs 47 runs scored is 11th in the NL.
The Cubs 9 HR is last in the NL.
The Cubs OBP of .366 is 3rd in the NL.
The Cubs can get on base, but cannot get timely hitting to score adequate runs.
The tipping point will be May 1. That is when you will really know if your team is a contender or a pretender.
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