trade rumors or free agent negotiations?
I heard last week on the radio that one reason may be that
Theo "borrowed" from this year's baseball budget to pay for
Darvish, Morrow and Chatwood. So that may be a bitter pill
on any future spending because it was already spent.
Plus, Darvish, Morrow and Chatwood represent $41.5 million
in 2019 payroll. Add in Heyward, it jumps to 61.5 million
or almost a third of 2019 total payroll budget.
The Cubs are on the hook for $158 million on 13 signed players.
The Cubs still have to sign 27 other players to make the 40 man
roster - - - with some expensive arbitration players like Bryant
in the mix.
The projected salaries for the arb players:
- Kris Bryant (3.171) – $12.4MM
- Kyle Hendricks (4.081) – $7.6MM
- Javier Baez (3.089) – $7.1MM
- Addison Russell (3.167) – $4.3MM
- Kyle Schwarber (3.086) – $3.1MM
- Mike Montgomery (3.089) – $3.0MM
- Carl Edwards Jr. (2.134) – $1.4MM
That leaves another 20 players, even at the minimum of $555,000
or $11.1 million creating a current projected payroll of
$208.00 which is dead on the luxury tax number.
This is the corner that Theo has painted himself in.
And last week, he admitted that 2019 is going to be difficult.
On Thursday, Epstein called the 2019 season a year of ‘‘reckoning’’ for the organization.
As the SunTimes reported, Epstein made it
clear that, barring moves that free up significant payroll space, the
Cubs won’t be adding a nine-figure commitment to their books for the
fourth time in five years.
The big, problematic contracts with large balances are clear: Jason Heyward’s $184 million deal Yu Darvish’s $126 million contract, and
the $25.5 million owed to right-hander Tyler Chatwood the next two
years.
‘‘You can’t just keep shopping without
making things fit for your roster and for your payroll and the situation
that you’re in,’’ Epstein said. ‘‘I understand the desire for a big
name every winter, and there are winters where we do acquire a big name
and there will be winters where we don’t acquire a big name. I don’t know what category this winter will fall into yet, but there’s a chance that it’s going to be a winter where we don’t acquire a big name from outside the organization.’’
Nothing is more telling that the Cubs are up against the payroll wall than:
1. Having to trade Smyly's $7 million contract in order to exercise the $20 million option on Hamels.
2. Not having $4 million extra to spend to re-sign Chavez to stabilize a bullpen that will now not have Morrow at the start of the season (he had late elbow surgery in November after sitting out the second half of the season).
Other media outlets outside of Chicago have reported that other teams have heard that the Cubs do not have money to spend to sign top tier free agents.
Adding to the problem is that the Cubs have very little trade capital. The Cubs farm system is near the lower ranks in MLB. On a scouting scale of 20-80, the Cubs best prospect rates 50. And the Cubs best prospects are at the Class A level. The only trading chips then are on the major league roster, but those candidates (besides Baez) had very down years.
The Cubs overspent in the past years after they tanked to stockpile high draft choices. The plan worked and a championship was won. But the plan was unsustainable when ownership was directing massive resources ($750 million) on non-baseball improvements and business enterprises. The Cubs team is left high and dry with their old roster and bad contract decisions.
