Kris Bryant today makes his major league debut. He was drafted two years ago by the Cubs, a move that I endorsed before the draft because Bryant was the best player in the draft. He has not disappointed in his short minor league career. Last season, in 138 games, he hit 43 HR, 110 RBI, 15 SB, .325 BA, .438 OBP and .661 SLG.
The "excuse" to call him up today is that injuries to Mike Olt and Tommy LaStella created a need to promote a third baseman. It happens to fall on the cut off date which allows the Cubs to hold onto Bryant for another contract year.
There is so much hype about Bryant's debut, it harks back to only two short years ago when the last great prospect, Brett Jackson, arrived at Wrigley. Jackson had hit 15 HR, 47 RBI, stole 27 bases, hit .256 with .338 OBP and .479 SLG prior to his call-up, but he was touted as a five-tool player. In his 44 game debut, Jackson failed. It started a quick fall out of the organization for the team's #1 prospect.
Or in 2008, Micah Hoffpauir in 71 games in AAA hit 25 HR, 100 RBI and hit .362. His major league career bloomed for a half season (with an All Star selection), then faded faster than a shooting star.
We expect Bryant to be different than Jackson or Hoffpauir. The front office hopes Bryant will be different. The business side of the team needs Bryant to be different.
Fans salivate that the "final" piece of the puzzle is now on the team. But this glosses over a growing issue - - - the stellar bullpen is starting to come a part with injuries (Grimm, now Ramirez). But for now, in a suddenly warm day in Chicago, the sunshine spotlight will fall on Bryant.
How Maddon uses him in the lineup is going to be interesting. Maddon continues to move people around the order. I would prefer that he settle in a set lineup card. By moving the traditional #2 hitter to the 9th spot, he is giving Rizzo and Soler an extra at-bat or two during a series. With Bryant in the middle of the order, Soler will have some greater protection.
1. Fowler cf
2. Rizzo 1b
3. Soler rf
4. Bryant 3b
5. Castro ss
6. Montero c
7. Coghlan lf
8. Pitcher p
9. Alcantara 2b
Showing posts with label BJackson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BJackson. Show all posts
April 17, 2015
August 25, 2014
HERALDED PROSPECTS
When rookie shortstop Gordon Beckham arrived on the South Side, he had a quick start which propelled him into the "can't miss" category. In 2009, he hit .270, 14 HR and 63 RBI with a 2.1 WAR. Sadly, that was his best major league season. He went to play second full time, and was a Gold Glove caliber defender.
But after 5.5 years with the Sox, Beckham batted only .244, 61 HR, 276 RBI and 5.9 WAR. The "can't miss" prospect with the confidence to be an All-Star turned into a "can't hit" major leaguer.
Beckham's case is not unusual. Less than six percent of all minor leaguers make it to the majors, and very few have All-Star caliber careers. Beckham is the latest example of how an accomplished minor league prospect can make an initial splash in the Show, but fail to have a good career.
So the White Sox traded Beckham to the Angels for a player to be named or cash.
Beckham lasted longer than the Cubs Brett Jackson, who was also traded this summer for nominal return. Jackson was a highly anticipated five tool centerfielder who could be a cornerstone player for the Cubs for a decade. His major league career lasted only 44 games.
Even today, highly regarded prospect Javy Baez is wowing the crowds with massive home runs. But Baez also is a strike out mess (being punched out more than 43 percent). In his first 17 games, Baez has hit 5 home runs, but struck out 30 times. He is only hitting .214. It is feast of famine. It is almost an exact repeat of Jackson's struggles.
Even players who have a good track record can begin to falter for no apparent reason. Travis Wood's last outing against the rain soaked Giants was termed "an Edwin start," a Cub term of art for a bad performance. Wood's performance has become to noticeably slide from his excellent 2013 season (4.4 WAR) to this year (negative 0.4 WAR).
Even the best prospects may only give a team a slight, one year jolt in performance. The lesson is clear: there is still a major leap from AAA to the majors. More than 90 percent of those prospects don't make a long term career out of their opportunity.
But after 5.5 years with the Sox, Beckham batted only .244, 61 HR, 276 RBI and 5.9 WAR. The "can't miss" prospect with the confidence to be an All-Star turned into a "can't hit" major leaguer.
Beckham's case is not unusual. Less than six percent of all minor leaguers make it to the majors, and very few have All-Star caliber careers. Beckham is the latest example of how an accomplished minor league prospect can make an initial splash in the Show, but fail to have a good career.
So the White Sox traded Beckham to the Angels for a player to be named or cash.
Beckham lasted longer than the Cubs Brett Jackson, who was also traded this summer for nominal return. Jackson was a highly anticipated five tool centerfielder who could be a cornerstone player for the Cubs for a decade. His major league career lasted only 44 games.
Even today, highly regarded prospect Javy Baez is wowing the crowds with massive home runs. But Baez also is a strike out mess (being punched out more than 43 percent). In his first 17 games, Baez has hit 5 home runs, but struck out 30 times. He is only hitting .214. It is feast of famine. It is almost an exact repeat of Jackson's struggles.
Even players who have a good track record can begin to falter for no apparent reason. Travis Wood's last outing against the rain soaked Giants was termed "an Edwin start," a Cub term of art for a bad performance. Wood's performance has become to noticeably slide from his excellent 2013 season (4.4 WAR) to this year (negative 0.4 WAR).
Even the best prospects may only give a team a slight, one year jolt in performance. The lesson is clear: there is still a major leap from AAA to the majors. More than 90 percent of those prospects don't make a long term career out of their opportunity.
August 16, 2014
BEWARE VAULTED PROSPECTS
MLBTR reports that the Diamondbacks have acquired Cubs former first-round pick and top prospect Brett Jackson for minor league reliever Blake Cooper.
Jackson, 26, rated as one of the game’s top 100 prospects from
2010-12, according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus (he
topped out at No. 32 on BA’s list and No. 44 on BP’s list). Jackson was sold as a "five tool" player - - - hit for average, power, with speed and very good defensive skills. When his
stock was at its highest, BA likened him to Jim Edmonds,
noting that he had that type of ceiling at the plate, if not that type
of Gold Glove caliber defense in center field.
However, Jackson’s swing-and-miss tendencies caused his stock to plummet, as a problem he looked to have eliminated at the Double-A level resurfaced in Triple-A and still has yet to be corrected. Jackson was batting just .210/.298/.348 with a 37.3 percent strikeout rate for Triple-A Iowa this season and will look to deliver on some of his once sky-high potential in a new organization.
Jackson only had a brief stint in the majors. In 2012, he was called up and played in 44 games. In 142 plate appearances, he hit .175, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 59K, 22 BB for a 0.1 WAR. His strike out rate of 41.6 percent led to his permanent demotion. Jackson quickly faded off the Cubs top prospects list, and at one point was further demoted to AA. Like many other touted "can't miss" prospects, Jackson never filled his potential. This appears to be a change of scenery move to clear a 40 man roster space for the Cubs.
Cooper, also 26, was a 12th-round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2010 and reached Triple-A for the first time in 2014. Though he’s struggled to a 6.00 ERA in 24 innings there, Cooper was excellent at Double-A this year, posting a 1.85 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 34 frames. His command has faltered since moving up to the top minor league level, as he’s walked 17 hitters in his 24 innings at Reno. The 5’11″, 190-pound righty has never ranked among Arizona’s top 30 prospects, according to BA, and he didn’t rank on MLB.com’s midseason list of the D’Backs’ top 20 prospects either. In parts of five minor league seasons, Cooper has a 3.27 ERA with a 217-to-98 K/BB ratio (seven of those free passes were intentional) in 236 2/3 innings.
There is caution in this trade story. Javy Baez continues to rack up strike outs. In 45 plate appearances, he has 17 Ks for a rate of 37.8 percent, which is too high for a major league player. The pressure to conform and adjust to major league pitching doomed Jackson's fate. He could not cut down on his strikeouts which torpedoed his value as a hitter. Baez is currently in the same audition mode as Jackson had in 2012.
However, Jackson’s swing-and-miss tendencies caused his stock to plummet, as a problem he looked to have eliminated at the Double-A level resurfaced in Triple-A and still has yet to be corrected. Jackson was batting just .210/.298/.348 with a 37.3 percent strikeout rate for Triple-A Iowa this season and will look to deliver on some of his once sky-high potential in a new organization.
Jackson only had a brief stint in the majors. In 2012, he was called up and played in 44 games. In 142 plate appearances, he hit .175, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 59K, 22 BB for a 0.1 WAR. His strike out rate of 41.6 percent led to his permanent demotion. Jackson quickly faded off the Cubs top prospects list, and at one point was further demoted to AA. Like many other touted "can't miss" prospects, Jackson never filled his potential. This appears to be a change of scenery move to clear a 40 man roster space for the Cubs.
Cooper, also 26, was a 12th-round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2010 and reached Triple-A for the first time in 2014. Though he’s struggled to a 6.00 ERA in 24 innings there, Cooper was excellent at Double-A this year, posting a 1.85 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 34 frames. His command has faltered since moving up to the top minor league level, as he’s walked 17 hitters in his 24 innings at Reno. The 5’11″, 190-pound righty has never ranked among Arizona’s top 30 prospects, according to BA, and he didn’t rank on MLB.com’s midseason list of the D’Backs’ top 20 prospects either. In parts of five minor league seasons, Cooper has a 3.27 ERA with a 217-to-98 K/BB ratio (seven of those free passes were intentional) in 236 2/3 innings.
There is caution in this trade story. Javy Baez continues to rack up strike outs. In 45 plate appearances, he has 17 Ks for a rate of 37.8 percent, which is too high for a major league player. The pressure to conform and adjust to major league pitching doomed Jackson's fate. He could not cut down on his strikeouts which torpedoed his value as a hitter. Baez is currently in the same audition mode as Jackson had in 2012.
May 9, 2014
PROSPECTING FOR GOLD
It was like watching one of those overhyped gold mining reality shows . . . there are hours of episodes but at the end of the season the miners crap out.
Last season, more fans spent their time researching, watching and following the Cubs vaulted minor league prospects. Several, including Javier Baez and Kris Bryant, were tearing the cover off the ball. It was more enjoyable to invest time and resources in tracking the development of those prospects than watch the major league team stumble from series to series.
But all reality shows get stale real fast.
So far, word from down on the farm is that those golden prospects have tarnished to brass.
No one at AAA Iowa is so far above the fray as to demand a call-up to the major league roster. And that is a bad sign. The Cubs front office signed a bunch of young prospects and put them in the low minors because they had "high ceilings." The question becomes when do the prospects actually "hit" their ceilings. If it is at the AAA level, then those prospects have crapped out like the gold miners.
The season is still young, but slow starts seem to compound on young players. Take Brett Jackson for example. After his blazing AAA season, he earned a call-up to the majors at the end of the season. He struggled badly. The next year, he was back at AAA, and he struggled so badly he was demoted to AA by the end of the year. He is back in AAA, but only hitting .198.
Jackson is the poster boy for prospect gold. He was the five tool outfield prospect that was the "can't miss" Kid. Now at age 25, he is not even on the radar for a major league job.
But it is not that unusual. Most prospects have the fate of Jackson. But when the major league team is so poor, it can only sell one thing: the future. But the future may not be as bright as presented; and if the vaulted prospects don't pan out, the Cubs may be in store for decades of poor teams. I don't think the current fan base will support a second "ten year" rebuild plan for this organization.
Last season, more fans spent their time researching, watching and following the Cubs vaulted minor league prospects. Several, including Javier Baez and Kris Bryant, were tearing the cover off the ball. It was more enjoyable to invest time and resources in tracking the development of those prospects than watch the major league team stumble from series to series.
But all reality shows get stale real fast.
So far, word from down on the farm is that those golden prospects have tarnished to brass.
No one at AAA Iowa is so far above the fray as to demand a call-up to the major league roster. And that is a bad sign. The Cubs front office signed a bunch of young prospects and put them in the low minors because they had "high ceilings." The question becomes when do the prospects actually "hit" their ceilings. If it is at the AAA level, then those prospects have crapped out like the gold miners.
The season is still young, but slow starts seem to compound on young players. Take Brett Jackson for example. After his blazing AAA season, he earned a call-up to the majors at the end of the season. He struggled badly. The next year, he was back at AAA, and he struggled so badly he was demoted to AA by the end of the year. He is back in AAA, but only hitting .198.
Jackson is the poster boy for prospect gold. He was the five tool outfield prospect that was the "can't miss" Kid. Now at age 25, he is not even on the radar for a major league job.
But it is not that unusual. Most prospects have the fate of Jackson. But when the major league team is so poor, it can only sell one thing: the future. But the future may not be as bright as presented; and if the vaulted prospects don't pan out, the Cubs may be in store for decades of poor teams. I don't think the current fan base will support a second "ten year" rebuild plan for this organization.
September 13, 2013
COUNTDOWN
Even the most die hard Cub fans are only willing to give the team one more year to turn things around. Ticket sales have plummeted since August. No shows are dramatically increased in September. The concept of a minor league tear down to bring in a pipeline is a fine concept, but now people begin to realize that it is not a guaranteed process. If it was, every team would have done it. There would be no free agent market. Every team would be equal, on par, in talent. People are realizing how much a crap shoot it is in finding major league talent, especially the performance gap from Class A ball to even Class AA ball.
A recent example is Brett Jackson. He was the next five tool superstar in the Cubs system. He had power, average, speed and defense. He was projected to be the center fielder for the future. He got his chance last season in a late year call up. And he fell flat on his face. He was a strike out king. He looked overwhelmed at the plate. His major league line: in 44 games, .175 BA, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB, .303 OBP. In 2013, he fell a part in the minors. He was demoted from Iowa to Tennessee (AA) after an injury. His total minor league stat line: 95 games played, .210 BA, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 9 SB, .296 OBP.
At age 25, Jackson is a broken player. He is no longer a prospect but just a minor league player.
So when the heralded prospects crash and burn, fans should not be surprised by those events. But now, the fans has started a doomsday clock on the Cubs. Be competitive in a year or it will be extremely difficult to retain our loyalty.
It could be a Waterloo watershed moment in 2015. Most experts believe the Cubs will not be ready to compete by then, especially when they have taken the tack of keeping all their best prospects in Class A ball. Fans expect Baez, Bryant, Almora to be starting right away - - - but that is not the new Cubs way. Delay. Develop. Sell hope. Believe in the process.
But then again, the Cubs may not care too much about the loss in attendance. The focus has been on bringing in new revenue sources which are not dependent on how well the team actually plays on the field: new scoreboard with advertising, new advertising signage inside and outside the ball park, commercial and retail real estate development outside the ball park, more corporate events and concerts inside Wrigley, and more bars and restaurants open to the public year round inside Wrigley. And the prize in their eyes is the new broadcast contract revenue which should see a quick bump up next season, toward the goal of a Dodger like cable network billion dollar bonanza.
You still need fans to generate ratings which sets the price for advertising. But you don't need paying ball park fans to generate ratings on television. You can still market nice guys that finish last like Darwin Barney in a soap opera way. You can pare back the payroll to $50 million which is still a cheap entertainment budget for 162 episodes of content. It is all about number crunching.
The Cubs front office is a big believer in Numbers. They must realize that the power in numbers of prospects will enhance the chance that one or more will become impact players. Of all prospects signed to pro contracts, only 3 to 7 percent ever become major league players. Approximately half never make it to Class A, another half drop at Class A, another half at Class AAA, and you have the old AAAA talent pool, and the small percentage that become one of the 750 major league roster regulars. With approximately 3,750 minor league players a season, and a development cycle of five seasons, the major league opening day rosters at most only take in four percent of the five year development talent pool.
So within the numbers of the Class A prospects, only 4 or 5 players have a statistical chance of making it to the majors. Even if it is the usual suspects, Bryant, Almora, Vogelbach, Soler, that leaves 21 other roster spots to fill by the time they make the opening day roster. That means 84 percent of the roster needs to be filled by a source other than one's internal minor league system. Is the Cubs AAA roster going to fill 4 spots in the meantime? Highly doubtful. Will the Cubs AA roster going to fill 4 spots in the meantime? Baez has the best chance, then maybe OF Rubi Silva, SS Arismendy Alcantara, and possibly pitchers Kyle Hendricks or Eric Jokisch. So, the Numbers would say at best, the Cubs could have 9 home grown prospects on the team. That means 64 percent of the roster needs to be filled by sources other than the Cub's farm system.
The Cubs are about to close the window on the second year of the five year development time line. For every small surprise like Junior Lake or Chris Rusin pitching well enough to be considered maybe a 5th starter next season, we have regressions by Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo, the "core" players of this rebuilding plan. If one looks objectively at the Cubs current roster, there is not one position that does not need to be upgraded by either new personnel or better player performance.
Theo Epstein's contract ends in October, 2016. Fans inferred that the man who lifted the curse of the Bambino would celebrate a contract extension with a World Series title. But Epstein took over a Boston club that was on the cusp of winning; as of the present, the Cubs are no where near a .500 ball club. Epstein has never built an organization from the ground up. Ricketts has confidence in Epstein's vision. But the narrow sightedness of just rebuilding one way may be the team's ultimate downfall.
Fans have given the team plenty of time to make over the team. But fans have grown weary about adding prospects by subtracting wins at the major league level. In the past two seasons, the Cubs have traded away two quality starting pitching staffs in a business where starting pitching is hard to come by. The culture of losing has not changed because the Cubs are mired in historic back to back losing seasons. And the major league product on the field is becoming unwatchable. All signs point to a Cub apocalypse.
A recent example is Brett Jackson. He was the next five tool superstar in the Cubs system. He had power, average, speed and defense. He was projected to be the center fielder for the future. He got his chance last season in a late year call up. And he fell flat on his face. He was a strike out king. He looked overwhelmed at the plate. His major league line: in 44 games, .175 BA, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB, .303 OBP. In 2013, he fell a part in the minors. He was demoted from Iowa to Tennessee (AA) after an injury. His total minor league stat line: 95 games played, .210 BA, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 9 SB, .296 OBP.
At age 25, Jackson is a broken player. He is no longer a prospect but just a minor league player.
So when the heralded prospects crash and burn, fans should not be surprised by those events. But now, the fans has started a doomsday clock on the Cubs. Be competitive in a year or it will be extremely difficult to retain our loyalty.
It could be a Waterloo watershed moment in 2015. Most experts believe the Cubs will not be ready to compete by then, especially when they have taken the tack of keeping all their best prospects in Class A ball. Fans expect Baez, Bryant, Almora to be starting right away - - - but that is not the new Cubs way. Delay. Develop. Sell hope. Believe in the process.
But then again, the Cubs may not care too much about the loss in attendance. The focus has been on bringing in new revenue sources which are not dependent on how well the team actually plays on the field: new scoreboard with advertising, new advertising signage inside and outside the ball park, commercial and retail real estate development outside the ball park, more corporate events and concerts inside Wrigley, and more bars and restaurants open to the public year round inside Wrigley. And the prize in their eyes is the new broadcast contract revenue which should see a quick bump up next season, toward the goal of a Dodger like cable network billion dollar bonanza.
You still need fans to generate ratings which sets the price for advertising. But you don't need paying ball park fans to generate ratings on television. You can still market nice guys that finish last like Darwin Barney in a soap opera way. You can pare back the payroll to $50 million which is still a cheap entertainment budget for 162 episodes of content. It is all about number crunching.
The Cubs front office is a big believer in Numbers. They must realize that the power in numbers of prospects will enhance the chance that one or more will become impact players. Of all prospects signed to pro contracts, only 3 to 7 percent ever become major league players. Approximately half never make it to Class A, another half drop at Class A, another half at Class AAA, and you have the old AAAA talent pool, and the small percentage that become one of the 750 major league roster regulars. With approximately 3,750 minor league players a season, and a development cycle of five seasons, the major league opening day rosters at most only take in four percent of the five year development talent pool.
So within the numbers of the Class A prospects, only 4 or 5 players have a statistical chance of making it to the majors. Even if it is the usual suspects, Bryant, Almora, Vogelbach, Soler, that leaves 21 other roster spots to fill by the time they make the opening day roster. That means 84 percent of the roster needs to be filled by a source other than one's internal minor league system. Is the Cubs AAA roster going to fill 4 spots in the meantime? Highly doubtful. Will the Cubs AA roster going to fill 4 spots in the meantime? Baez has the best chance, then maybe OF Rubi Silva, SS Arismendy Alcantara, and possibly pitchers Kyle Hendricks or Eric Jokisch. So, the Numbers would say at best, the Cubs could have 9 home grown prospects on the team. That means 64 percent of the roster needs to be filled by sources other than the Cub's farm system.
The Cubs are about to close the window on the second year of the five year development time line. For every small surprise like Junior Lake or Chris Rusin pitching well enough to be considered maybe a 5th starter next season, we have regressions by Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo, the "core" players of this rebuilding plan. If one looks objectively at the Cubs current roster, there is not one position that does not need to be upgraded by either new personnel or better player performance.
Theo Epstein's contract ends in October, 2016. Fans inferred that the man who lifted the curse of the Bambino would celebrate a contract extension with a World Series title. But Epstein took over a Boston club that was on the cusp of winning; as of the present, the Cubs are no where near a .500 ball club. Epstein has never built an organization from the ground up. Ricketts has confidence in Epstein's vision. But the narrow sightedness of just rebuilding one way may be the team's ultimate downfall.
Fans have given the team plenty of time to make over the team. But fans have grown weary about adding prospects by subtracting wins at the major league level. In the past two seasons, the Cubs have traded away two quality starting pitching staffs in a business where starting pitching is hard to come by. The culture of losing has not changed because the Cubs are mired in historic back to back losing seasons. And the major league product on the field is becoming unwatchable. All signs point to a Cub apocalypse.
July 13, 2013
CATCHING IANITIS DISEASE
Oh, this is hard to take but easy to explain.
The Des Moines Register reports that the Cubs No. 5 prospect, Brett Jackson, is missing in action.
The paper reports that Jackson, 24, landed on the disabled list late last month with a quad strain. He has been missing from the team since then, and now is "no longer listed on the Iowa team roster."
The Iowa Cubs manager is quoted as saying all he knows is that Jackson is not here with the team. Unless granted permission by the club, a player is AWOL. Normally, disabled players stay with the team to continue their supervised rehab with the team's medical staff.
It has been a horrible, regressive year for Jackson. He was hitting just .223 (48-for-215) with seven doubles, three home runs and 23 RBIs in 61 games in AAA.
Jackson has struck out 77 times in 215 at-bats this season. He fanned 158 times at the plate last year, one shot of tying Iowa’s team record for a single season.
Jackson made his major league debut last season, hitting just .175 with six doubles and four home runs in 44 games with Chicago. He was also a strike out machine. He was once considered to be the Cubs center fielder of the future. A potential middle of the order, five tool player.
It may be speculation, but this seems out of character for Jackson. But he may have picked up this new behavior from the last frustrated and disgruntled Iowa Cub, Ian Stewart. Stewart whined, moaned and pouted his way to a suspension then eventual release (with pay) after batting a miserable .194 in AAA this season. Stewart was a bust when the Cubs traded for him. He was an injured bust when the Cubs, for no apparent reason, re-signed him this spring to a multimillion dollar contract.
It may be a ploy by Jackson for the Cubs to trade or release him. The writing may be on the wall that the new front office sees no major league future for him. But his current performance may leave doubt in other clubs what Jackson's future is going to be this year or next. A change of scenery or organization may do him good. Or not. Stewart caught on with the Dodgers AAA team. He continues to hit around .200.
The Des Moines Register reports that the Cubs No. 5 prospect, Brett Jackson, is missing in action.
The paper reports that Jackson, 24, landed on the disabled list late last month with a quad strain. He has been missing from the team since then, and now is "no longer listed on the Iowa team roster."
The Iowa Cubs manager is quoted as saying all he knows is that Jackson is not here with the team. Unless granted permission by the club, a player is AWOL. Normally, disabled players stay with the team to continue their supervised rehab with the team's medical staff.
It has been a horrible, regressive year for Jackson. He was hitting just .223 (48-for-215) with seven doubles, three home runs and 23 RBIs in 61 games in AAA.
Jackson has struck out 77 times in 215 at-bats this season. He fanned 158 times at the plate last year, one shot of tying Iowa’s team record for a single season.
Jackson made his major league debut last season, hitting just .175 with six doubles and four home runs in 44 games with Chicago. He was also a strike out machine. He was once considered to be the Cubs center fielder of the future. A potential middle of the order, five tool player.
It may be speculation, but this seems out of character for Jackson. But he may have picked up this new behavior from the last frustrated and disgruntled Iowa Cub, Ian Stewart. Stewart whined, moaned and pouted his way to a suspension then eventual release (with pay) after batting a miserable .194 in AAA this season. Stewart was a bust when the Cubs traded for him. He was an injured bust when the Cubs, for no apparent reason, re-signed him this spring to a multimillion dollar contract.
It may be a ploy by Jackson for the Cubs to trade or release him. The writing may be on the wall that the new front office sees no major league future for him. But his current performance may leave doubt in other clubs what Jackson's future is going to be this year or next. A change of scenery or organization may do him good. Or not. Stewart caught on with the Dodgers AAA team. He continues to hit around .200.
April 19, 2013
PASS THE BORBON
The Cubs have turned to flea market aspect of the waiver wire to fill widening gaps in its major league roster.
The Cubs claimed outfielder Julio Borbon off waivers from Rangers. To make room for Borbon, the Cubs designated back up infielder Alberto Gonzalez for assignment. Gonzalez batted .217 in 11 games for the Cubs.
Borbon, 27, is a career .283 hitter who spent parts of four seasons with the Rangers. He was designated for assignment on April 9 and the Rangers had 10 days to try to trade him.
Borbon made the Rangers after batting .317 in 32 games in spring training. But he he wound up in third position in center field depth chart. Borbon, who was selected by Texas in the supplemental first round (35th overall) of the 2007 June draft, played in just one game for the Rangers this season.
Borbon, 27, is a left handed hitter who has not played in the majors in 2012. In 2011, he played in only 32 games for the Rangers, hitting .270, 0 HR, 11 RBI, 6 SB in 89 AB. He spent all of 2012 in the minors at Triple A. In 2010, he played in 137 games for the Rangers and had 468 PA, batting .276, 3 HR 42 RBI, 15 SB, .309 OBP.
The Cubs are now carrying mostly outfielders: Soriano, DeJesus, Schierholtz, Hairston, Sappelt and now Borbon. Unless Soriano has nagging knee issues, one could expect Sappelt to be moved if and when Ian Stewart ever comes back.
This also means that the Cubs did not look for Brett Jackson to help the club any time soon. Jackson's stock continues to fall under new management.
The Cubs claimed outfielder Julio Borbon off waivers from Rangers. To make room for Borbon, the Cubs designated back up infielder Alberto Gonzalez for assignment. Gonzalez batted .217 in 11 games for the Cubs.
Borbon, 27, is a career .283 hitter who spent parts of four seasons with the Rangers. He was designated for assignment on April 9 and the Rangers had 10 days to try to trade him.
Borbon made the Rangers after batting .317 in 32 games in spring training. But he he wound up in third position in center field depth chart. Borbon, who was selected by Texas in the supplemental first round (35th overall) of the 2007 June draft, played in just one game for the Rangers this season.
Borbon, 27, is a left handed hitter who has not played in the majors in 2012. In 2011, he played in only 32 games for the Rangers, hitting .270, 0 HR, 11 RBI, 6 SB in 89 AB. He spent all of 2012 in the minors at Triple A. In 2010, he played in 137 games for the Rangers and had 468 PA, batting .276, 3 HR 42 RBI, 15 SB, .309 OBP.
The Cubs are now carrying mostly outfielders: Soriano, DeJesus, Schierholtz, Hairston, Sappelt and now Borbon. Unless Soriano has nagging knee issues, one could expect Sappelt to be moved if and when Ian Stewart ever comes back.
This also means that the Cubs did not look for Brett Jackson to help the club any time soon. Jackson's stock continues to fall under new management.
September 29, 2012
IT'S ALREADY NEXT YEAR
The muted slogan, "wait to next year," is already happening before the season ends, as writers and fans begin the 2012 autopsy of the Cubs.
As it stands, the Cubs will to into the winter with 10 players who have contracts or will be offered arbitration: Soriano, Marmol, Garza, DeJesus, Samardzija, Concepcion, Castro, Russell, Barney, Valbuena. The base salary for these ten players is around $53.47 million, with the arbitration eligible players of Garza, Samardzija, Russell and Valbuena will probably get moderate raises so the team will be at around $55 million with 15 positions to fill on the opening day roster.
If the remaining roster is filled with non-arbitration eligible players like Castillo, Clevenger, Dolis or Campana, those 15 prospects would add only $7.5 million to the base payroll, for a total of $62.5 million. Cot's Baseball contracts pegged the Cubs 2012 payroll at $109.4 million. So it is possible that the Cubs payroll will decrease by $46.9 million or 42.9 percent.
Even though Hoyer has told the press the Cubs will be in the free agent market, it is doubtful that the Cubs will want to spend money on premiere free agents for a club that may lose another 100 games in 2013. And what kind of free agent would be willing to join the Cubs when the team is hitting rock bottom?
The two glaring holes to fill are at third base and center field. It is doubtful that the new front office will be patient with Jim Hendry prospects Josh Vitters or Brett Jackson. But is less likely that the Cubs will go out and spend tens of millions of dollars on a veteran third baseman or center fielder when they will not be around when the blueprint of the turnaround comes in 2015.
So fans should brace themselves for another 2012 season in 2013.
As it stands, the Cubs will to into the winter with 10 players who have contracts or will be offered arbitration: Soriano, Marmol, Garza, DeJesus, Samardzija, Concepcion, Castro, Russell, Barney, Valbuena. The base salary for these ten players is around $53.47 million, with the arbitration eligible players of Garza, Samardzija, Russell and Valbuena will probably get moderate raises so the team will be at around $55 million with 15 positions to fill on the opening day roster.
If the remaining roster is filled with non-arbitration eligible players like Castillo, Clevenger, Dolis or Campana, those 15 prospects would add only $7.5 million to the base payroll, for a total of $62.5 million. Cot's Baseball contracts pegged the Cubs 2012 payroll at $109.4 million. So it is possible that the Cubs payroll will decrease by $46.9 million or 42.9 percent.
Even though Hoyer has told the press the Cubs will be in the free agent market, it is doubtful that the Cubs will want to spend money on premiere free agents for a club that may lose another 100 games in 2013. And what kind of free agent would be willing to join the Cubs when the team is hitting rock bottom?
The two glaring holes to fill are at third base and center field. It is doubtful that the new front office will be patient with Jim Hendry prospects Josh Vitters or Brett Jackson. But is less likely that the Cubs will go out and spend tens of millions of dollars on a veteran third baseman or center fielder when they will not be around when the blueprint of the turnaround comes in 2015.
So fans should brace themselves for another 2012 season in 2013.
September 19, 2012
CRACKED CRYSTAL BALL
They cannot be confused as the Cubs' Three Wise Men. But if there is a crystal ball for the end of the bad season showcase of talent, three Cubs with high expectations and a potential future seem to be fading away faster than a chunk of space debris falling through the ozone layer.
All Star Bryan LaHair has fallen off Planet Cub. Ever since Rizzo was called up to be the Epstein-Hoyer cornerstone franchise pick at first base, LaHair has been riding the bench like a splinter. Since August 1st, he has only had 50 AB, 12 H, .240 BA, 1 HR and 4 RBI. It is clear that management has put LaHair out to pasture.
But just as bothersome is the two AAA rookies with high expectations for fans. They had been told for years that these two guys had major league talent, and that they would be pieces of the turnaround puzzle. But these are not Epstein-Hoyer guys. And their showcases after their early call-ups have fallen flat.
With no third baseman on the roster, one would think Josh Vitters would get an extended look in the field and at the plate. But no. Since September 1st, he has only 25 AB, 4 H,.160 BA, 1 HR and 1 RBI. There is even some talk that the Cubs should tender injured failure Ian Stewart a 2013 contract. Really? Or maybe the Cubs should just give Luis Valbuena third for 2013 until the rebuilding demolition work is complete. Those rumors clearly mean that Vitters has not won any backers in the front office.
And even more surprising is five tool outfielder Brett Jackson. He did not have the "savior" label attached to his call-up, but he was supposed to anchor the outfield for the next five years. He has some speed, and can make some difficult catches in the outfield. But his arm is less than touted. But his batting and strike out ratio is what people grimace about since his call-up. Since September 1st, Jackson has 26 AB, 2 H, .076 BA 0 HR 0 RBI. September is showcase month for rookies. This has turned into an opening night theater flop.
The writing was on the wall that LaHair would not be a starter in 2013. The question was whether he had enough to power his way to a bench position. But apparently not. The Cubs may try to deal him to Japan this off-season. Japan, home of the AAAA ball player.
Vitters is still too young to export to Japan. But he may have lost his one opportunity to make a case for a real competition this spring for the opening day third base position. His main minor league rival, Christian Villanueva, BA #100 prospect, is hitting .250 with 4 HR and 9 RBI in high A Daytona as a Cub (and for 2012 total since the Rangers trade: .279 BA, 14 AB, 68 RBI, .353 OBP). Villanueva is years away from a major league chance so Vitters has to beat out the likes of a Joe Mather, Jose Cardenas or another journeyman free agent like Stewart. Third base will not be kind to the Cubs in 2013.
Jackson may not be long in the majors, either. The Cubs brought in their two top picks, Almora and Soler, to take some batting practice at Wrigley during the last home stand. It is now believed that Almora is management's pick to be the centerfielder of the future, not Jackson. And the team may fast track Soler to the majors to play right field (which would move DeJesus to CF). And that would displace Jackson to trying to capture a 5th outfielder bench role with a Tony Campana or Dave Sappelt.
LaHair, Vitters and B Jackson are all in the same boat with the Cubs, a very small life boat for their careers.
All Star Bryan LaHair has fallen off Planet Cub. Ever since Rizzo was called up to be the Epstein-Hoyer cornerstone franchise pick at first base, LaHair has been riding the bench like a splinter. Since August 1st, he has only had 50 AB, 12 H, .240 BA, 1 HR and 4 RBI. It is clear that management has put LaHair out to pasture.
But just as bothersome is the two AAA rookies with high expectations for fans. They had been told for years that these two guys had major league talent, and that they would be pieces of the turnaround puzzle. But these are not Epstein-Hoyer guys. And their showcases after their early call-ups have fallen flat.
With no third baseman on the roster, one would think Josh Vitters would get an extended look in the field and at the plate. But no. Since September 1st, he has only 25 AB, 4 H,.160 BA, 1 HR and 1 RBI. There is even some talk that the Cubs should tender injured failure Ian Stewart a 2013 contract. Really? Or maybe the Cubs should just give Luis Valbuena third for 2013 until the rebuilding demolition work is complete. Those rumors clearly mean that Vitters has not won any backers in the front office.
And even more surprising is five tool outfielder Brett Jackson. He did not have the "savior" label attached to his call-up, but he was supposed to anchor the outfield for the next five years. He has some speed, and can make some difficult catches in the outfield. But his arm is less than touted. But his batting and strike out ratio is what people grimace about since his call-up. Since September 1st, Jackson has 26 AB, 2 H, .076 BA 0 HR 0 RBI. September is showcase month for rookies. This has turned into an opening night theater flop.
The writing was on the wall that LaHair would not be a starter in 2013. The question was whether he had enough to power his way to a bench position. But apparently not. The Cubs may try to deal him to Japan this off-season. Japan, home of the AAAA ball player.
Vitters is still too young to export to Japan. But he may have lost his one opportunity to make a case for a real competition this spring for the opening day third base position. His main minor league rival, Christian Villanueva, BA #100 prospect, is hitting .250 with 4 HR and 9 RBI in high A Daytona as a Cub (and for 2012 total since the Rangers trade: .279 BA, 14 AB, 68 RBI, .353 OBP). Villanueva is years away from a major league chance so Vitters has to beat out the likes of a Joe Mather, Jose Cardenas or another journeyman free agent like Stewart. Third base will not be kind to the Cubs in 2013.
Jackson may not be long in the majors, either. The Cubs brought in their two top picks, Almora and Soler, to take some batting practice at Wrigley during the last home stand. It is now believed that Almora is management's pick to be the centerfielder of the future, not Jackson. And the team may fast track Soler to the majors to play right field (which would move DeJesus to CF). And that would displace Jackson to trying to capture a 5th outfielder bench role with a Tony Campana or Dave Sappelt.
LaHair, Vitters and B Jackson are all in the same boat with the Cubs, a very small life boat for their careers.
August 27, 2012
JACKSON CAMERON
The weekend revealed a random bit of opinion in some Cub circles.
The expectation and comparison game is fraught with danger, especially when dealing with young rookies early in their careers.
But when I heard someone favorably compare Brett Jackson to Mike Cameron, my stomach churned and my head said, "really, Mike Cameron is all you expect?"
Some aspects of the comparison are easy to see:
both are speedy left hand hitting outfielders.
Cameron played 17 major league seasons. His career stat line: 278 HR, 968 RBI, 297 SB, .249 BA, .338 OBP, .986 Field percentage. His career followed a normal path: starter, to journeyman to bench reserve with seven teams (White Sox, Mariners, Mets, Padres, Brewers, Red Sox and Marlins).
If you average Cameron's stats, he was a .249 hitter (which is not very good), 16.35 HR (okay for a center fielder), 57 RBI (marginal for a starting OF), 17.4 SB (probably above average in today's station to station hitting philosophy) and .986 fielding percentage (which is good but not exceptional).
Cameron's average WAR/season is 2.54 which equates to being a starter, but not an All-Star caliber player.
You would think that Cub fans would expect MORE from Jackson since the hype had been that he was a "five tool" player that could hit for power - - - a 3-4-5 hitter in the order, with the advantage of speed to steal bases. The projection would be more like .290 BA, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 20 SB per season.
But the downgrade in expectations may be tempered by the fact that Jackson has been a strike out machine at AAA, and has a large hole in his swing so far in the majors. He has started to adjust, hitting two home runs recently, but how he fits into the Epstein rebuilding plan is unknown. He looks like a younger version of current David DeJesus, who is impersonating the old Koskie Fukudome Cub right fielder. DeJesus current Cub campaign: .269 BA, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 6 SB, .357 OBP, in 118 games. In Fukudome's three Cub seasons, he averaged. 259 BA, 11.3 HR, 52 RBI, 8.3 SB. One cannot argue that either Fukudome or DeJesus have been successful Cub acquisitions. Both played good defense, but underwhelmed in offensive production (especially in the power numbers normal for a corner outfielder).
So the Jackson to Cameron comparison may come true over time, but at present it is not an acceptable goal for a rookie with years of press glowing about his potential. Cub fans should expect more than a Cameron career from Jackson.
The expectation and comparison game is fraught with danger, especially when dealing with young rookies early in their careers.
But when I heard someone favorably compare Brett Jackson to Mike Cameron, my stomach churned and my head said, "really, Mike Cameron is all you expect?"
Some aspects of the comparison are easy to see:
both are speedy left hand hitting outfielders.
Cameron played 17 major league seasons. His career stat line: 278 HR, 968 RBI, 297 SB, .249 BA, .338 OBP, .986 Field percentage. His career followed a normal path: starter, to journeyman to bench reserve with seven teams (White Sox, Mariners, Mets, Padres, Brewers, Red Sox and Marlins).
If you average Cameron's stats, he was a .249 hitter (which is not very good), 16.35 HR (okay for a center fielder), 57 RBI (marginal for a starting OF), 17.4 SB (probably above average in today's station to station hitting philosophy) and .986 fielding percentage (which is good but not exceptional).
Cameron's average WAR/season is 2.54 which equates to being a starter, but not an All-Star caliber player.
You would think that Cub fans would expect MORE from Jackson since the hype had been that he was a "five tool" player that could hit for power - - - a 3-4-5 hitter in the order, with the advantage of speed to steal bases. The projection would be more like .290 BA, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 20 SB per season.
But the downgrade in expectations may be tempered by the fact that Jackson has been a strike out machine at AAA, and has a large hole in his swing so far in the majors. He has started to adjust, hitting two home runs recently, but how he fits into the Epstein rebuilding plan is unknown. He looks like a younger version of current David DeJesus, who is impersonating the old Koskie Fukudome Cub right fielder. DeJesus current Cub campaign: .269 BA, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 6 SB, .357 OBP, in 118 games. In Fukudome's three Cub seasons, he averaged. 259 BA, 11.3 HR, 52 RBI, 8.3 SB. One cannot argue that either Fukudome or DeJesus have been successful Cub acquisitions. Both played good defense, but underwhelmed in offensive production (especially in the power numbers normal for a corner outfielder).
So the Jackson to Cameron comparison may come true over time, but at present it is not an acceptable goal for a rookie with years of press glowing about his potential. Cub fans should expect more than a Cameron career from Jackson.
May 1, 2012
CALL UPS
There are various rumblings from fans when will the Cubs 2.0 management call up hot prospects Rizzo and B. Jackson. The simple answer is in 2013. That is not a joke.
The new breed of general manager is more focused on controlling their prospects free agency time line than quickly promoting a player to the major league roster. The reason is simple: after a certain time period, a good prospect can turn into a Super Two ( two plus years of ML service) as being the top 17 percent of the rookie crop, which means one less year of arbitration (one year earlier for free agency). The status also means a bump in pay, too. So cost conscious teams want to limit the amount of Super Twos on their roster.
The Cubs rank last in power stats. LaHair has half of the team's total HR total. The current starting outfield (Soriano, Campana and DeJesus) have zero. Statistically, LaHair may be the second best NL hitter behind LA's Kemp. LaHair's fast start is another reason that Rizzo will remain in Iowa for the full season.
Another reason is that the Cubs are on pace to lose 106 games. An 8-15 April does not show the team is ready to compete for the division. Why start the free agency clock when the team is not going to contend?
A third reason may be marketing. By leaving Jackson and Rizzo at Iowa to build up monster numbers, the Cubs PR machine will use them as new hope for 2013 (in an attempt to get season ticket renewals from an exhausted fan base). Yes, it is a cheap and unrealistic ploy on the team's part.
Another reason Jackson and Rizzo will not be called up soon is that they are effectively blocked by current players. Manager Sveum has stated that Campana is going to play 80% of the remaining games as his center fielder. That blocks Jackson from playing every day. Campana is a one dimensional player (speed) compared to a five tool prospect like Jackson. But Sveum thinks he can use Campana in the second hole and create some offensive, steals and scoring chances for the middle of the order.
LaHair's fast start blocks the need for Rizzo to be called up to play first. LaHair has no other natural position to go to; playing him in LF instead of Soriano makes the team weaker, since Soriano is still the number one HR power source on the club. Playing RF instead of DeJesus would be a stretch because LaHair is not fast to cover that corner. It would also highlight a potential mistake in signing DeJesus in the first place, a thing that the new administration would loath to give the media fodder to criticize the Theocracy.
Rizzo and Jackson are part of the Cubs future. But the Future is still a long ways away.
The new breed of general manager is more focused on controlling their prospects free agency time line than quickly promoting a player to the major league roster. The reason is simple: after a certain time period, a good prospect can turn into a Super Two ( two plus years of ML service) as being the top 17 percent of the rookie crop, which means one less year of arbitration (one year earlier for free agency). The status also means a bump in pay, too. So cost conscious teams want to limit the amount of Super Twos on their roster.
The Cubs rank last in power stats. LaHair has half of the team's total HR total. The current starting outfield (Soriano, Campana and DeJesus) have zero. Statistically, LaHair may be the second best NL hitter behind LA's Kemp. LaHair's fast start is another reason that Rizzo will remain in Iowa for the full season.
Another reason is that the Cubs are on pace to lose 106 games. An 8-15 April does not show the team is ready to compete for the division. Why start the free agency clock when the team is not going to contend?
A third reason may be marketing. By leaving Jackson and Rizzo at Iowa to build up monster numbers, the Cubs PR machine will use them as new hope for 2013 (in an attempt to get season ticket renewals from an exhausted fan base). Yes, it is a cheap and unrealistic ploy on the team's part.
Another reason Jackson and Rizzo will not be called up soon is that they are effectively blocked by current players. Manager Sveum has stated that Campana is going to play 80% of the remaining games as his center fielder. That blocks Jackson from playing every day. Campana is a one dimensional player (speed) compared to a five tool prospect like Jackson. But Sveum thinks he can use Campana in the second hole and create some offensive, steals and scoring chances for the middle of the order.
LaHair's fast start blocks the need for Rizzo to be called up to play first. LaHair has no other natural position to go to; playing him in LF instead of Soriano makes the team weaker, since Soriano is still the number one HR power source on the club. Playing RF instead of DeJesus would be a stretch because LaHair is not fast to cover that corner. It would also highlight a potential mistake in signing DeJesus in the first place, a thing that the new administration would loath to give the media fodder to criticize the Theocracy.
Rizzo and Jackson are part of the Cubs future. But the Future is still a long ways away.
January 30, 2012
NEWS AND RUMORS
News and rumors from the weekend papers:
(1) An AL GM who is not associated with the Red Sox or Cubs believes that Commissioner Bud Selig will give Boston a significant player in the compensation agreement: "I don’t think MLB wants executives leaving their teams before their contracts are up and therefore he will try to deter teams from doing that again."
>>>> Whoa. That means the Cubs interest in Cuban OF defectors Cespedes and Soler may be because #1 prospect Brett Jackson may be that compensation. That would send a message; but one has to realize that Epstein was on the way out anyway with the conflict with the team owners and president. But will Selig realize that? Probably not.
(2) The Cardinals are actively shopping pitcher Kyle McClellan ($2.5 million salary) in order to free up payroll to sign Roy Oswalt to a one year deal. McClellan, 27, is under team control for 2012-2013.
>>>> This is a type of player Espstein and Hoyer would like to pick up: young pitchers under control for several seasons. McClellan would be a fine middle rotation guy. He went 12-7 last year with a 4.19 ERA. However, I don't think the Cubs have the money or the player(s) to make a deal with the Cardinals.
(3) The Rays are looking for a veteran catcher, and Geo Soto's name has come up in the discussion as one of three veteran catchers on Tampa's radar.
>>>> Since the Cubs will not be competitive in 2012, you might as well just trade Soto for prospects (maybe some of those the Cubs sent for Garza) and run with the two high level catchers that are ready for major league duty (Castillo and Clevenger).
>>>> Whoa. That means the Cubs interest in Cuban OF defectors Cespedes and Soler may be because #1 prospect Brett Jackson may be that compensation. That would send a message; but one has to realize that Epstein was on the way out anyway with the conflict with the team owners and president. But will Selig realize that? Probably not.
(2) The Cardinals are actively shopping pitcher Kyle McClellan ($2.5 million salary) in order to free up payroll to sign Roy Oswalt to a one year deal. McClellan, 27, is under team control for 2012-2013.
>>>> This is a type of player Espstein and Hoyer would like to pick up: young pitchers under control for several seasons. McClellan would be a fine middle rotation guy. He went 12-7 last year with a 4.19 ERA. However, I don't think the Cubs have the money or the player(s) to make a deal with the Cardinals.
(3) The Rays are looking for a veteran catcher, and Geo Soto's name has come up in the discussion as one of three veteran catchers on Tampa's radar.
>>>> Since the Cubs will not be competitive in 2012, you might as well just trade Soto for prospects (maybe some of those the Cubs sent for Garza) and run with the two high level catchers that are ready for major league duty (Castillo and Clevenger).
December 28, 2011
TRADING CHIPS
Cub President Theo Epstein has gone on the record that his move of trading "assets" for
more assets is not over with the Sean Marshall deal.
But what real "trading" chips do the Cubs still have on their roster?
1. Matt Garza, starting pitcher, two years left of control, arb eligible, Cubs #1 starter, projects to #3 starter with contending teams. Garza may be the last ace in the hole for the Cubs to deal for 2 pitchers and 2 prospects (hopefully a third base and first base power hitter). The type of pitcher you would get in return would be a #4 type (like Travis Wood), with a AAA ready pitcher. Trading Garza would also further dump payroll, something which is more than apparent under this new administration.
2. Carlos Zambrano, starting pitcher, one year left at $18 million, Cubs headcase, projects as #3 starter on contending teams. Z has worn out his welcome in Chicago, and everyone in the league knows it. So there will be no line of takers for a pitcher that may be past his prime, physically and mentally. Some think Miami with friend Ozzie Guillen would be the perfect landing spot, but the Marlins already spent big money on Mark Buehrle and other free agents. Even with quality pitching in short supply, there won't be any takers unless the Cubs eat 75% or more of Z's salary. In return, you may get a low prospect or two so it may not pay to trade him, since there are no AAA Cub pitchers capable of starting in 2012.
3. Marlon Byrd, centerfielder, one year left on deal. Byrd's contract is not that hard to swallow for a team looking for a veteran back up outfielder. And that is what Byrd's production tells other teams; back-up role player. Therefore, there will be no great prospects in return in trading Byrd. He would have to be packaged with other players in order to get some viable prospects in return. He should be moved because he is blocking Brett Jackson, the only Cub farmhand in Baseball America's top 100 prospects.
4. Geo Soto, catcher, still under club control. The majors are devoid of power hitting catchers. Soto's skills are diminishing with more nagging injuries. He is at the point of his best trade value. The Cubs have two catching prospects (Castillo and Clevenger) who are major league ready. Trading Soto could land a major league player and a low prospect.
5. Brett Jackson, Iowa AAA outfielder. The only possible player the new management could consider keeping, but more likely would trade all the Hendry known prospects and re-set the rosters with their own signees. If that is the case, Jackson would return two or three lower prospects in return. This would also signal a much longer "rebuilding" time frame for the Cubs; something that Ricketts and season ticket holders would be denial about . . . the turnaround would be put off for an additional two or three years, or 2016. No one knows whether ownership can wait that long.
more assets is not over with the Sean Marshall deal.
But what real "trading" chips do the Cubs still have on their roster?
1. Matt Garza, starting pitcher, two years left of control, arb eligible, Cubs #1 starter, projects to #3 starter with contending teams. Garza may be the last ace in the hole for the Cubs to deal for 2 pitchers and 2 prospects (hopefully a third base and first base power hitter). The type of pitcher you would get in return would be a #4 type (like Travis Wood), with a AAA ready pitcher. Trading Garza would also further dump payroll, something which is more than apparent under this new administration.
2. Carlos Zambrano, starting pitcher, one year left at $18 million, Cubs headcase, projects as #3 starter on contending teams. Z has worn out his welcome in Chicago, and everyone in the league knows it. So there will be no line of takers for a pitcher that may be past his prime, physically and mentally. Some think Miami with friend Ozzie Guillen would be the perfect landing spot, but the Marlins already spent big money on Mark Buehrle and other free agents. Even with quality pitching in short supply, there won't be any takers unless the Cubs eat 75% or more of Z's salary. In return, you may get a low prospect or two so it may not pay to trade him, since there are no AAA Cub pitchers capable of starting in 2012.
3. Marlon Byrd, centerfielder, one year left on deal. Byrd's contract is not that hard to swallow for a team looking for a veteran back up outfielder. And that is what Byrd's production tells other teams; back-up role player. Therefore, there will be no great prospects in return in trading Byrd. He would have to be packaged with other players in order to get some viable prospects in return. He should be moved because he is blocking Brett Jackson, the only Cub farmhand in Baseball America's top 100 prospects.
4. Geo Soto, catcher, still under club control. The majors are devoid of power hitting catchers. Soto's skills are diminishing with more nagging injuries. He is at the point of his best trade value. The Cubs have two catching prospects (Castillo and Clevenger) who are major league ready. Trading Soto could land a major league player and a low prospect.
5. Brett Jackson, Iowa AAA outfielder. The only possible player the new management could consider keeping, but more likely would trade all the Hendry known prospects and re-set the rosters with their own signees. If that is the case, Jackson would return two or three lower prospects in return. This would also signal a much longer "rebuilding" time frame for the Cubs; something that Ricketts and season ticket holders would be denial about . . . the turnaround would be put off for an additional two or three years, or 2016. No one knows whether ownership can wait that long.
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