The talk shows are buzzing about this season's the golden age of golden arms. No one can decide who is the "best" pitcher in baseball.
The nominees each have put up some long term staggering numbers.
Chris Sale, 27, has been perfect this season. He is 9-0, 1.58 ERA, 3 complete games, 0.717 WHIP and 3.1 WAR. Being "9-0 in Nine
Starts/ERA Under 2.00 Club"puts him ahead of Pedro Martinez in 1997 and Fernando Valenzuela in 1981, when they went 8-0 in their first eight starts. Sale's start win total is the best in franchise history since 1919.
Clayton Kershaw, 28, is currently 6-1, 1.67 ERA, 2 shout outs, 0.700 WHIP and 2.8 WAR. Kershaw has
faced 253 hitters this year -- and walked four of them. That is an unheard-of 88-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Kershaw has six
straight double-figure strikeout games that have included a TOTAL of two
walks. The man who bears the weight of his franchise every time he goes
out there, averages more outs per start (23) than any pitcher in the
sport and owns the late innings like no other starter alive. He has now
faced 54 hitters from the seventh inning on. Seven have somehow reached
base. Not a one has scored.
Jake Arrieta, 30, is 7-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.839 WHIP and 2.4 WAR. His team has won his last 21 regular game starts, the most in the history of baseball. He has pitched two no hitters in less than a year. In between no hitters, Arrieta was 15-0 with a 0.65 ERA. If you look back 24 starts, his record gets better at 20-1. 0.86 ERA with 91 hits allowed over
178 innings, 173 strikeouts, 33 walks and 0.697 WHIP.
There is one thing in common with all three of these outstanding pitchers. Each has a funky delivery. Sale buggy whips his entire lean frame into every pitch. Kershaw has a jerky arm motion. Arrieta teeters then throws across his body. And the unorthodox deliveries may be the key to their collective success.
Hitters need to locate each pitch as quick as possible. Fractions of seconds count when a baseball is spinning 90 mph at you. Hitters need to find a pitcher's release point, then the rotation on the seems to instantaneously determine if it is a fastball, or a curve. Any delay in recognition means the pitcher has a greater advantage over the hitter.
Another factor is that these pitchers have learned not be "throwers" trying to blow away hitters for strike outs. They are "pitchers" who have mastered their craft to conserve energy, locate pitches, pitch to contact and find hitter weaknesses.
We are less than a third through the 2016 season and the press is in awe with the quality of starting pitching with more stories about the Cy Young races.
Showing posts with label Kershaw. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kershaw. Show all posts
May 21, 2016
June 19, 2014
PUBLIC RELATIONS
Multiple reports state that Jeff Samardzija has turned down the Cubs latest contract extension, approximately $85 million for five years. Supposedly, the Cubs prior offer was around $65-70 million.
Samardzija's camp believes that he is "worth" more than Homer Bailey, the Reds starter who earned a six year $105 million extension.
Bailey, 28, is in his 8th major league season. He has made 157 starts. His record: 56-48, 4.29 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, 5.9 career WAR.
Samardzija, 29, is in his 7th major league season. He has made 81 starts (in 204 GP). His record: 31-41, 3.96 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 5.4 career WAR.
Yes, some of the statistics are similar.
But, Bailey has made more career starts. Bailey has a better record, including career WAR. Bailey's new deal pegs his value at $17.5 million per season.
The Cubs peg Samardzija's value at $17.0 million per season.
If Samardzija is thinking that he has "ace" value like Clayton Kershaw, who just threw a complete game 15 K no hitter, he is delusional. Kershaw signed a 7 year $215 million Dodger mega-deal. That is $31.7 million per season.
Kershaw, 26, is also in his 7th major league season. He has made 192 starts. His record: 84-48, 2.60 ERA, 1.083 WHIP and career 34.2 WAR.
By the "ace" measure, Kershaw is at least "worth" 5.33 times more than Samardzija (because of a plus 28.8 WAR differential). By this objective measure, Samardzija is only worth $5.96 million per season.
But most observers will say that the "market" for starting pitching is very high. It is not unreasonable for marginal starters who have large paydays (ex., Edwin Jackson's $52 million deal).
Samardzija by all accounts is willing to risk two more arbitration years with the Cubs to get to his goal of a $20 million plus salary per season when he is 31.
The Cubs public play for a last minute extension for a popular player is just that: public relations. It was clear since spring training that Samardzija wants to test free agency. He hates the constant losing of the Cubs. He has been upset with management trading away 40 percent of the rotation every year. Now, this year is his turn to be traded for prospects. He is okay with that move. It would give him a chance to play for a better team, and improve his statistics for his eventual free agency.
So the Cubs have the excuse "we tried to re-sign The Shark," when they go to beg season ticket holders to renew this November. But it a hollow message.
The Cub fan base has grown tired of the veteran trade for prospects mantra of the front office. With winning now out of sight for most, out of sight is out of mind.
The Cubs hope that a close AL East race between the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees will create a bidding war for Samardzija and Jason Hammel. Kansas City is also mentioned as a trade candidate as the Royals have had a perpetual crop of prospects to promote or trade. But none of these clubs are going to trade their best pitching prospects for a 29 year old veteran who would project to a #4 or #5 starter in their current rotations.
The Cubs asking price for Samardzija may be as delusional as Samardzija's own self worth.
Samardzija's camp believes that he is "worth" more than Homer Bailey, the Reds starter who earned a six year $105 million extension.
Bailey, 28, is in his 8th major league season. He has made 157 starts. His record: 56-48, 4.29 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, 5.9 career WAR.
Samardzija, 29, is in his 7th major league season. He has made 81 starts (in 204 GP). His record: 31-41, 3.96 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 5.4 career WAR.
Yes, some of the statistics are similar.
But, Bailey has made more career starts. Bailey has a better record, including career WAR. Bailey's new deal pegs his value at $17.5 million per season.
The Cubs peg Samardzija's value at $17.0 million per season.
If Samardzija is thinking that he has "ace" value like Clayton Kershaw, who just threw a complete game 15 K no hitter, he is delusional. Kershaw signed a 7 year $215 million Dodger mega-deal. That is $31.7 million per season.
Kershaw, 26, is also in his 7th major league season. He has made 192 starts. His record: 84-48, 2.60 ERA, 1.083 WHIP and career 34.2 WAR.
By the "ace" measure, Kershaw is at least "worth" 5.33 times more than Samardzija (because of a plus 28.8 WAR differential). By this objective measure, Samardzija is only worth $5.96 million per season.
But most observers will say that the "market" for starting pitching is very high. It is not unreasonable for marginal starters who have large paydays (ex., Edwin Jackson's $52 million deal).
Samardzija by all accounts is willing to risk two more arbitration years with the Cubs to get to his goal of a $20 million plus salary per season when he is 31.
The Cubs public play for a last minute extension for a popular player is just that: public relations. It was clear since spring training that Samardzija wants to test free agency. He hates the constant losing of the Cubs. He has been upset with management trading away 40 percent of the rotation every year. Now, this year is his turn to be traded for prospects. He is okay with that move. It would give him a chance to play for a better team, and improve his statistics for his eventual free agency.
So the Cubs have the excuse "we tried to re-sign The Shark," when they go to beg season ticket holders to renew this November. But it a hollow message.
The Cub fan base has grown tired of the veteran trade for prospects mantra of the front office. With winning now out of sight for most, out of sight is out of mind.
The Cubs hope that a close AL East race between the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees will create a bidding war for Samardzija and Jason Hammel. Kansas City is also mentioned as a trade candidate as the Royals have had a perpetual crop of prospects to promote or trade. But none of these clubs are going to trade their best pitching prospects for a 29 year old veteran who would project to a #4 or #5 starter in their current rotations.
The Cubs asking price for Samardzija may be as delusional as Samardzija's own self worth.
January 21, 2014
ROTATION
When Clayton Kershaw broke the bank with his new contract, which pays him an average annual salary of $30 million, that is the "ace" of ace money.
In six major league seasons, Kershaw has amassed an amazing record. He is 77-46, 2.60 ERA and 32.3 WAR. In 2013, his WAR was 7.8.
If one uses the range of player value of being $5.5 million per win above replacement, Kershaw's 2013 value would have been $42.9 million.
In contrast, the Cubs "ace" last season was Jeff Samardzija. However, he only had a 1.0 WAR in 2013. That would mean his value would be around $5.5 million. He has asked in arbitration for $6.2 million. This may be a little high, but starting pitching is a premium position. However, the Cubs definitely low balled him with their arbitration figure of $4.4 million. If the Cubs win the arbitration, it would be much easier to trade a 200 IP player at that lower salary figure.
But what is truly the realistic value of a starting rotation? Unless you have an unlimited budget, you can't stack five All-Star quality (5.0 WAR plus) pitchers.
Realistically, a starting rotation would be like this:
1. Pitcher A with a 5.0 WAR, an All-Star caliber player
2. Pitcher B with a 4.0 WAR, a very good pitcher.
3. Pitcher C with a 3.0 WAR, a solid starter.
4. Pitcher D with a 2.0 WAR, a starter who has consistency issues to be around a .500 pitcher.
5. Pitcher E with a 1.0 WAR, just above AAA replacement level.
If you look at it this way, Samardzija would fit the "value" of a 5th starter and not a staff "ace."
Many people believe Travis Wood had a better year than Samardzija, and the stats would back that up. Wood had a 2013 WAR of 4.4, which would make him a rock solid #2 starter.When Edwin Jackson was a National his last season, he had a 2.0 WAR which put him as a #4 starter on a good Nat team which was about right. The Cubs paid him a premium to be the #3 starter, but last season Jackson's WAR was a negative 1.3, which would have been below a #5 starter.
If Samardzija is the Cubs ace at 1.0 WAR, then the Cubs would be fielding four other starters at replacement level, which actually could happen in 2014 if the Cubs trade Wood. But of the two, Wood is more valuable than Samardzija.
In six major league seasons, Kershaw has amassed an amazing record. He is 77-46, 2.60 ERA and 32.3 WAR. In 2013, his WAR was 7.8.
If one uses the range of player value of being $5.5 million per win above replacement, Kershaw's 2013 value would have been $42.9 million.
In contrast, the Cubs "ace" last season was Jeff Samardzija. However, he only had a 1.0 WAR in 2013. That would mean his value would be around $5.5 million. He has asked in arbitration for $6.2 million. This may be a little high, but starting pitching is a premium position. However, the Cubs definitely low balled him with their arbitration figure of $4.4 million. If the Cubs win the arbitration, it would be much easier to trade a 200 IP player at that lower salary figure.
But what is truly the realistic value of a starting rotation? Unless you have an unlimited budget, you can't stack five All-Star quality (5.0 WAR plus) pitchers.
Realistically, a starting rotation would be like this:
1. Pitcher A with a 5.0 WAR, an All-Star caliber player
2. Pitcher B with a 4.0 WAR, a very good pitcher.
3. Pitcher C with a 3.0 WAR, a solid starter.
4. Pitcher D with a 2.0 WAR, a starter who has consistency issues to be around a .500 pitcher.
5. Pitcher E with a 1.0 WAR, just above AAA replacement level.
If you look at it this way, Samardzija would fit the "value" of a 5th starter and not a staff "ace."
Many people believe Travis Wood had a better year than Samardzija, and the stats would back that up. Wood had a 2013 WAR of 4.4, which would make him a rock solid #2 starter.When Edwin Jackson was a National his last season, he had a 2.0 WAR which put him as a #4 starter on a good Nat team which was about right. The Cubs paid him a premium to be the #3 starter, but last season Jackson's WAR was a negative 1.3, which would have been below a #5 starter.
If Samardzija is the Cubs ace at 1.0 WAR, then the Cubs would be fielding four other starters at replacement level, which actually could happen in 2014 if the Cubs trade Wood. But of the two, Wood is more valuable than Samardzija.
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