WHY PROSPECT LISTS ARE TENUOUS

Baseball America, the publication guru of all things baseball prospects, has revised its current Cub top prospect list:


1. Kris Bryant
2. Addison Russell
3. Jorge Soler
4. Kyle Schwarber
5. C.J. Edwards
6. Billy McKinney
7. Albert Almora
8. Gleyber Torres
9. Pierce Johnson
10. Duane Underwood

Compare to the 2013 list:

1. Baez, on major league roster, potential starter at 2B
2. Bryant
3. Edwards, starting to fall
4. Almora, falling for a #1 pick
5. Soler, on major league roster, RF starter
6. Johnson, falling
7. Alcantara, must no longer a prospect but average CF in 2015
8. Jeimer Candelario, fallen
9. Dan Vogelbach, fallen and blocked by Rizzo
10. Arodys Vizcaino, out of the organization.

Only three of the top prospects made it to the Cubs roster (30%), perhaps a higher percentage than normal because the Cubs 25 Man Roster was nothing more than AAA talent for the last three years.

PROSPECT LISTS

Prospect lists are merely speculative exercises to project talent two, three, four or five years down the road. They may cause instant happiness to a fan base, but all such lists should be taken with a grain of salt.

Baseball America announced their annual Top 100 baseball list. Seven Cubs made the 2014 Top 100:

#5-- SS Javier Baez

#8-- 3B Kris Bryant

#28-- RHP C.J. Edwards

#36-- OF Albert Almora

#41-- OF Jorge Soler

#87-- RHP Pierce Johnson

#100-- 2B Arismendy Alcantara

Last year, the Cubs had only four players on the list: Baez, Almora, Soler, and Arodys Vizcaino.

In 2012, the Cubs had Brett Jackson, Anthony Rizzo, Baez and Matt Szczur on the list.

In 2011, the Cubs had only Brett Jackson and pitcher Trey McNutt on the list.

As a further cautionary tale, the last time the Cubs had seven players on the Top 100 list was 2002:

#2 -- P Mark Prior

#6 -- P Juan Cruz

#40 -- 1B Hee Seop Choi

#45 -- 3B David Kelton

#48 -- 2B Bobby Hill

#68 -- OF Nic Jackson

#80 -- P Carlos Zambrano

Only two of those prospects on the 2002 list had any long major league careers: Zambrano, as a starter, and Cruz, who was merely a bullpen arm. Choi and Hill were used as chips to acquire Aramis Ramirez and Derek Lee, but as prospects Choi and Hill were busts.

Under current management, there have been 12 Cub prospects listed in the Top 100 lists, but only 1 (Rizzo) has made it to the majors in the last three years. And of those 12 prospects, 4 have dropped off the list without making any contribution to the Cubs major league roster (that is 1/3 of the total). And if 2002 is a guide, only 2 players on the current list will probably make it to the majors with some success. Only two of the prospects listed were drafted by the current front office (Bryant, Johnson). The rest were in the system or acquired by trade, which shows that after concentrating on drafting pitching the last two seasons, only one has made the good prospect radar.