One of the main objectives of any sports' general manager is to take an objective view of his team's performance, then spend the off-season to upgrade positions lost or of need.
Objectively, 2017 Cubs fell down the sink hole with inconsistent hitting, poorer defense than 2016 and worn out pitching down the stretch.
The team lost two starting pitchers, a closer, bullpen arms and back up catcher.
The team has major needs in the pitching department (2 starters, a closer and relievers).
The team also needs to find consistent .300 hitters to balance out the feast-or-famine hitters. A traditional lead off hitter would be nice, too.
As it currently stands, Tyler Chatwood was signed to be a starting pitcher. He projects to be a back of the rotation arm. So does he replace Arrieta in the rotation? No. Does he replace Lackey? Maybe. But the other starter on the depth chart is AAA Eddie Butler. He does not appear to replace or upgrade either Arrieta or Lackey.
The Cubs signed reliever Brandon Morrow. He is projected to be either the set up man or closer. Is he an upgrade over Wade Davis? Probably not. Morrow was the workhorse for the Dodgers in the playoffs, throwing in 14 of 15 games. As we have seen in the recent past, managers who abuse pitchers at the end of their contracts usually have a bad next season (example, Chapman).
Drew Smyly was signed to a two year deal, but he had Tommy John surgery last July so he may not even pitch in 2018. (The current Cubs philosophy of signing injured pitchers and pay for a year of rehab without production is very odd.) You really cannot count on Smyly being a starter or reliever.
The Cubs acquired reliever Dario Alvarez. Is he an upgrade from Hector Rondon? No. Alvarez has only 56 major league appearances.
As we stand today, none of the Cubs off-season moves have objectively upgraded the roster.
What still bothers many is that the Cubs could have made a major upgrade by trading for Giancarlo Stanton. Objectively, Stanton would have been the best outfielder on the Cubs roster. He would have only cost one 25 man roster player (Baez or Russell) and two minor leaguers.
Unless the front office believes that they have internal solutions to their roster problems. But just counting on a player to have a "rebound" year is more hope and an position upgrade.
A Stanton trade would have opened up second base to be platooned by Happ and Zobrist. Heyward would have been moved to center with a platoon with Almora. Schwarber and Happ could platoon in left field. And Stanton would have anchored the line up at clean up spot, protecting Rizzo.
It is still early on a slow hot stove winter, but clearly the Cubs still need to upgrade several positions.
Showing posts with label runs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label runs. Show all posts
December 13, 2017
July 27, 2015
RUNS PRODUCED
(R +
RBI - HR) is known as "runs produced" and has been around for years.
Bill James is generally credited with inventing this stat back in the
late 1970s, an early foray into his statistical work. IBut he abandoned it long ago because many better
methods and algorithms came along which we call sabermetrics.
Runs produced is a statistic that describe a hitter's overall effectiveness by measuring his ability to produce runs for team either by scoring them himself or driving them in at the plate. I think it still have value in player analysis because the basic object of baseball is to score runs.
Historically, the all time leaders in runs produced are:
Ty Cobb 4,066
Hank Aaron 3,716
Babe Ruth 3,673
Cap Anson 3,501
Barry Bonds 3,461
Stan Musial 3,425
Honus Wagner, 3,367
It does help show players who get on base, get in scoring position, and get across the plate by all means (hits, walks, stolen bases and home runs). It is a good measure of hitter's productivity.
For example, if one is asked who is the most productive hitter in the Cubs line up, most people would probably say Anthony Rizzo.
But in the R+RBI-HR = RP for starting position players (as of 7/23/15):
Bryant 92
Rizzo 86
Fowler 75
Castro 65
Russell 46
Coghlan 46
Soler 46
Montero 41
Two surprising things about Cubs current RP:
1. Fowler is the third most productive starter in the line up.
2. Russell, Coghlan and Soler (and Montero) give you the same production even though public perception is that Coghlan is having a career type season while Russell is struggling at the plate.
By comparison, with only 13 games player, Schwarber's RP is 18. That is less than one third the games played for the ranked players above. The average Cub starter has played 83 games. If you multiply that factor to Schwarber's RP he would project to 115. Clearly, Schwarber is the most productive Cub player since his call up.
Runs produced is a statistic that describe a hitter's overall effectiveness by measuring his ability to produce runs for team either by scoring them himself or driving them in at the plate. I think it still have value in player analysis because the basic object of baseball is to score runs.
Historically, the all time leaders in runs produced are:
Ty Cobb 4,066
Hank Aaron 3,716
Babe Ruth 3,673
Cap Anson 3,501
Barry Bonds 3,461
Stan Musial 3,425
Honus Wagner, 3,367
It does help show players who get on base, get in scoring position, and get across the plate by all means (hits, walks, stolen bases and home runs). It is a good measure of hitter's productivity.
For example, if one is asked who is the most productive hitter in the Cubs line up, most people would probably say Anthony Rizzo.
But in the R+RBI-HR = RP for starting position players (as of 7/23/15):
Bryant 92
Rizzo 86
Fowler 75
Castro 65
Russell 46
Coghlan 46
Soler 46
Montero 41
Two surprising things about Cubs current RP:
1. Fowler is the third most productive starter in the line up.
2. Russell, Coghlan and Soler (and Montero) give you the same production even though public perception is that Coghlan is having a career type season while Russell is struggling at the plate.
By comparison, with only 13 games player, Schwarber's RP is 18. That is less than one third the games played for the ranked players above. The average Cub starter has played 83 games. If you multiply that factor to Schwarber's RP he would project to 115. Clearly, Schwarber is the most productive Cub player since his call up.
July 8, 2015
RUNS
The trend is pitching. Pitching defeats hitting. So we are told this season.
As of Tuesday, runs scored has a wide berth among MLB teams.
Blue Jays are first in runs with 462 in 85 GP (5.44/Runs per game). The Astros are second with 388 runs scored.
At the bottom the White Sox at 275 runs in 80 GP (3.44 R/GP). The Mariners are at No. 29 with 283 runs. The White Sox are a full 2 runs behind the Blue Jays in run production.
The mean team, No. 15, is the Brewers at 339 runs.
The high flying, best record Cardinals are 22nd with 326 runs. The Cubs are 24th with 314 runs.
The differential between No. 1 and No. 30 is 368.5 runs scored. Only seven teams surpass that differential: Blue Jays, Astros, Yankees (379), D'backs (374), Orioles (327), A's (372) and Tigers (371).
There is some correlation between runs scored and position in standings is not clear.
Blue Jays (4th in AL East)
Astros (1st AL West)
Yankees (1st AL East)
D'backs (3rd NL West)
Orioles (2nd AL East)
A's (5th AL West)
Tigers (3rd AL Central)
Only one National League team is in top run scorers, which means that the DH does have some impact on AL scoring. But only 2 of the 7 teams (28.5%) are in first place in their division.
Does team ERA leaders shed any light on the runs scored to standings?
The Cardinals led the majors in team ERA at 2.56. The Rockies are in last with 4.88 ERA.
How the run leaders stack up in team ERA:
Blue Jays (23rd)
Astros (10th)
Yankees (20th)
D'backs (26th)
Orioles (12th)
A's (7th)
Tigers (25th)
Four of the seven run leaders (57.1%) are below the 15th club in team ERA. However, the two first place clubs are on either side of the 15th club (10th and 20th) while the best team ERA of top run scorers, the A's, are 7th in team ERA. One would expect the A's to be a lot better than last place in the AL West.
In this analysis, it seems that pitching does seem to tip the balance in favor of clubs who do not score as much as the average team as the No. 1 pitching club, the Cardinals, rank 22nd in run production.
As of Tuesday, runs scored has a wide berth among MLB teams.
Blue Jays are first in runs with 462 in 85 GP (5.44/Runs per game). The Astros are second with 388 runs scored.
At the bottom the White Sox at 275 runs in 80 GP (3.44 R/GP). The Mariners are at No. 29 with 283 runs. The White Sox are a full 2 runs behind the Blue Jays in run production.
The mean team, No. 15, is the Brewers at 339 runs.
The high flying, best record Cardinals are 22nd with 326 runs. The Cubs are 24th with 314 runs.
The differential between No. 1 and No. 30 is 368.5 runs scored. Only seven teams surpass that differential: Blue Jays, Astros, Yankees (379), D'backs (374), Orioles (327), A's (372) and Tigers (371).
There is some correlation between runs scored and position in standings is not clear.
Blue Jays (4th in AL East)
Astros (1st AL West)
Yankees (1st AL East)
D'backs (3rd NL West)
Orioles (2nd AL East)
A's (5th AL West)
Tigers (3rd AL Central)
Only one National League team is in top run scorers, which means that the DH does have some impact on AL scoring. But only 2 of the 7 teams (28.5%) are in first place in their division.
Does team ERA leaders shed any light on the runs scored to standings?
The Cardinals led the majors in team ERA at 2.56. The Rockies are in last with 4.88 ERA.
How the run leaders stack up in team ERA:
Blue Jays (23rd)
Astros (10th)
Yankees (20th)
D'backs (26th)
Orioles (12th)
A's (7th)
Tigers (25th)
Four of the seven run leaders (57.1%) are below the 15th club in team ERA. However, the two first place clubs are on either side of the 15th club (10th and 20th) while the best team ERA of top run scorers, the A's, are 7th in team ERA. One would expect the A's to be a lot better than last place in the AL West.
In this analysis, it seems that pitching does seem to tip the balance in favor of clubs who do not score as much as the average team as the No. 1 pitching club, the Cardinals, rank 22nd in run production.
April 14, 2015
LESTER'S PICK OFFS
In the first Cubs game, the world first learned of Jon Lester's "issue" with throwing the ball to first base. He had not done so in almost two seasons. Why? Some say he has a mental block or "the yips," which the dictionary has no origin but credits it to golfers who miss hit putts.
This is a major cause of concern for an "ace" pitcher. Even though baser unners did not have a marked historical advantage against Lester, we don't know if that was their leads were cut down because Lester is left handed (and looking in their direction which equates to a quicker throw to first) or if the teams did not really appreciate Lester's fear of throwing to first.
The last Cub pitcher who had defensive issues was Matt Garza. He could not field his position. At all. When a team bunted on him, he would field the ball and most likely it would land in the bullpen beyond first base or in the opponent's dugout. Garza had the command to throw strikes in and out of the zone to home, but on flat ground he was a throwing trainwreck.
In the opener with the Reds, Lester soft tossed a throw to Rizzo who had to leap to his right to catch the lob. Then, Lester quickened his toss and the ball landed beyond the RF bullpen. But for Soler gunning down the runner at third, it would have been a complete disaster.
Scouts and teams create "books" on opposing players showing their strengths and weaknesses. Teams are supposed to exploit a player's weakness. In Lester's case, his inability to keep runners close at first is a huge advantage to an opponent. Some runners have a lead beyond the infield cut circle, almost a third of the way to second base before Lester would pitch home. There is no way a catcher can overcome that kind of lead in a steal situation.
We should expect teams facing Lester will continue to make him throw to the bases. I would not be surprised if a team comes into the game and bunts like crazy to Lester in order to get infield base hits. If nothing else, it gets Lester's mindset out of whack. Frustrating a pitcher is also a means of altering a game in one's favor. There is nothing wrong with playing mind games when your opponent has a mental block in one part of his game.
This is a major cause of concern for an "ace" pitcher. Even though baser unners did not have a marked historical advantage against Lester, we don't know if that was their leads were cut down because Lester is left handed (and looking in their direction which equates to a quicker throw to first) or if the teams did not really appreciate Lester's fear of throwing to first.
The last Cub pitcher who had defensive issues was Matt Garza. He could not field his position. At all. When a team bunted on him, he would field the ball and most likely it would land in the bullpen beyond first base or in the opponent's dugout. Garza had the command to throw strikes in and out of the zone to home, but on flat ground he was a throwing trainwreck.
In the opener with the Reds, Lester soft tossed a throw to Rizzo who had to leap to his right to catch the lob. Then, Lester quickened his toss and the ball landed beyond the RF bullpen. But for Soler gunning down the runner at third, it would have been a complete disaster.
Scouts and teams create "books" on opposing players showing their strengths and weaknesses. Teams are supposed to exploit a player's weakness. In Lester's case, his inability to keep runners close at first is a huge advantage to an opponent. Some runners have a lead beyond the infield cut circle, almost a third of the way to second base before Lester would pitch home. There is no way a catcher can overcome that kind of lead in a steal situation.
We should expect teams facing Lester will continue to make him throw to the bases. I would not be surprised if a team comes into the game and bunts like crazy to Lester in order to get infield base hits. If nothing else, it gets Lester's mindset out of whack. Frustrating a pitcher is also a means of altering a game in one's favor. There is nothing wrong with playing mind games when your opponent has a mental block in one part of his game.
July 22, 2014
A'S RUNAWAY
The Athletics are dominating the AL West. With 61 victories, they are cruising ahead of the competition. The Rangers are already 22 games behind in the standings!
What is remarkable is that the A's runs differential is an outlandish +150. This is more than double the next highest team.
Baseball is a simple game with one simple rule: score more runs and you win the game.
Oakland is the master of that rule.
The A's starting pitching staff has been outstanding in ERA. The bullpen has been solid with closer Sean Doolittle.
And the A's can manufacture runs and put up crooked numbers, even though they play in a pitcher friendly ball park.
But can the A's success turn into post-season victories?
One study concluded that the most important factors in the post season are:
a) power arms in the starting rotation;
b) plus defensive fielding.
Great power arms can shut down great hitters.
A good defensive team can save a run a game.
In short series which usually are fairly even in talent, the better pitching staff and defensive team will usually win close contests.
The funny thing is that the team with the most regular season wins does not equate to World Series championships. More and more wild card teams are getting to the Series. Whether it is part underdog status or the ability to win "one and done" games, wild card teams position themselves with at least a mental advantage.
The A's traded into the team's strength when they picked up Samardzija and Hammel from the Cubs. It would appear that Oakland wants to make a deeper run in the playoffs.
What is remarkable is that the A's runs differential is an outlandish +150. This is more than double the next highest team.
Baseball is a simple game with one simple rule: score more runs and you win the game.
Oakland is the master of that rule.
The A's starting pitching staff has been outstanding in ERA. The bullpen has been solid with closer Sean Doolittle.
And the A's can manufacture runs and put up crooked numbers, even though they play in a pitcher friendly ball park.
But can the A's success turn into post-season victories?
One study concluded that the most important factors in the post season are:
a) power arms in the starting rotation;
b) plus defensive fielding.
Great power arms can shut down great hitters.
A good defensive team can save a run a game.
In short series which usually are fairly even in talent, the better pitching staff and defensive team will usually win close contests.
The funny thing is that the team with the most regular season wins does not equate to World Series championships. More and more wild card teams are getting to the Series. Whether it is part underdog status or the ability to win "one and done" games, wild card teams position themselves with at least a mental advantage.
The A's traded into the team's strength when they picked up Samardzija and Hammel from the Cubs. It would appear that Oakland wants to make a deeper run in the playoffs.
March 11, 2014
HIT PRODUCTION
There is a correlation between hits and runs scored; the more, the better.
In 2013, the Cubs had 1307 hits and scored 602 runs. In essence, it took the Cubs 2.17 hits to score a run.
In contrast, the champion Red Sox had 1566 hits and scored 853 runs. Boston took 1.84 hits to score a run, at least an 18 percent improvement than the Cubs.
Taking the AL DH out of the discussion, the Cardinals had 1494 hits to score783 runs. St. Louis took 1.91 hits to score a run, at least 14 percent better than the Cubs.
Another way of looking at it is that the Cubs needed another .30 hit to score a run versus a quality competitor like the Red Sox or Cardinals.
Dividing hits by wins, the Red Sox has 16.15 hits/win. The Cardinals 15.40 hits/win. The Cubs had 19.80 hits/win. The range of hits/win is 5.40 to 3.75.
A basic element of the game, such as getting a base hit, in all of the sabermetrics, is still a simple key statistic to show run efficiency and correlation to victories.
In 2013, the Cubs had 1307 hits and scored 602 runs. In essence, it took the Cubs 2.17 hits to score a run.
In contrast, the champion Red Sox had 1566 hits and scored 853 runs. Boston took 1.84 hits to score a run, at least an 18 percent improvement than the Cubs.
Taking the AL DH out of the discussion, the Cardinals had 1494 hits to score783 runs. St. Louis took 1.91 hits to score a run, at least 14 percent better than the Cubs.
Another way of looking at it is that the Cubs needed another .30 hit to score a run versus a quality competitor like the Red Sox or Cardinals.
Dividing hits by wins, the Red Sox has 16.15 hits/win. The Cardinals 15.40 hits/win. The Cubs had 19.80 hits/win. The range of hits/win is 5.40 to 3.75.
A basic element of the game, such as getting a base hit, in all of the sabermetrics, is still a simple key statistic to show run efficiency and correlation to victories.
March 5, 2014
PITCHER COMMAND
ActaSports Stat of the Week recently published a study on pitcher control. When scouts talk about a pitcher's command of his pitches, they usually mean the ability to use them to throw strikes.
The report found that there is a direct correlation between a pitcher throwing strikes and ERA.
It seems like basic common sense that has been lost in batter hitting squares and defense shift charts plotted by statistical data. If pitchers throw more strikes, they allow fewer runs. The report stated that the 21 starters who threw the most pitches in the strike zone (Grade A Control Pitchers) allowed more than half a run less per nine innings than the 20 starters who threw the fewest pitches in the zone (Grade D). The best pitchers in the game throw the most strikes.
Throwing more strikes also means that a pitcher is more efficient. Pitching coaches will preach that it is important to get ahead of the count early in an at-bat. A batter that is down in the count is more defensive at the plate. Pitchers tend to forget that the best hitters in the game only get a hit 30 percent of the time. Pitchers who tend to nibble on the corners throw more pitchers (which leads to higher pitch counts and less innings pitched). All teams have gone mental on pitch counts in order to protect pitchers from injury. A batter that is ahead in the count is better able to judge where the next pitch is coming in the zone - - - as to increase the chances for contact.
Throwing strikes does not mean grooving batting practice pitches down the heart of the plate. Major league pitching is still an art form. A pitcher with a 100 mph fastball can throw the pitch by the hitter. A pitcher with an 88 mph fastball can get the pitch past the hitter if it has movement through spin.
It is easier for a pitcher to set up a hitter if he can hit his catcher's spots consistently. The strike zone has shrunk to belt to knees, but that should not stop a pitcher from throwing a letter high pitch in order to set up a slider later in the count.
There are three ways for a pitch to be called a strike. The batter must swing and miss; hit a foul ball; or not swing at a pitch in the strike zone. For the set up pitch, the pitcher must "freeze" the hitter who is guessing what type of pitch is coming next. Good hitters always say that they always prepare that the next pitch will be a fastball, so they can adjust if it off-speed (since it is extremely difficult to do the opposite). Hitting is series of split second decisions of eye to hand coordination. A pitcher who can mask the type of pitch longer (by hiding the ball or by pitching motion) can have an advantage.
Good quality pitchers really have no fear of throwing strikes. Basic math is on their side. Sabermetric managers want hitters to be more selective, take pitches and work a count to improve OBP via walks. But a pitcher with command knows that a hitter will swing probably only half the time. And if he gets a hit only 30 percent of his swings, then there really is only a 16.5 percent effective contact rate at play.
A pitcher who does not have command has efficiency issues. It takes 4 balls for a batter to get a walk versus 3 strikes to get a batter out. The rules provide a pitcher with a 25 percent advantage at the start of an at-bat.
In a 2008 post at Baseball ThinkTank, the idea of pitcher efficiency was further researched to conclude that the real purpose of a pitcher is to get outs (not necessarily strike outs) in the most efficient manner. It is called Pitching Toward Outs.
PTO% = (SO*3)+SH+SF+(AB-SO-H)/Total Pitches
The formula takes the number of pitches that go directly into getting strikeouts (three strikes) and inducing outs in play (one pitch each) and divides that by the total number of pitches. The end result is the percentage of pitches used directly towards outs. The three strikes needed to get a strikeout are figured in, which allows strikeout pitchers to get a fair shake in this test of efficiency. The remaining pitches not used towards out are “wasted pitches” or negative outcomes (walks or hits). Therefore, a pitcher who goes to a 3-2 count on every batter before getting an outcome would not be looked at as being very efficient under this line of thinking.
A quality pitcher should not have the mindset of "wasting" pitches especially when pitch counts are the new norm. A quality pitcher is one who throws 75 percent of his first pitches for strikes. With an 0-2 count, a pitcher can use a "trick" pitch to get a batter out because the batter is trying to protect the zone from a called strike three. The most effective pitch in that sequence would be the off-speed change which looks at release as a fastball which disrupts a batters eye to hand coordination and swing speed. A three-pitch at bat is much more efficient than a 7 pitch full count for a pitcher.
If a pitcher "saves" just one pitch per out batter per inning for five innings to qualify for a win, that would yield 15 extra pitches against the pitch count, which at the major league level is another full inning of work. A starter who can pitch 6 full innings is more valuable than one who can only manage a pitch count through 5. The latter would add an additional 33 innings to the team's bullpen staff.
And the key to a successful pitcher is the ability to throw strikes early and often.
The report found that there is a direct correlation between a pitcher throwing strikes and ERA.
| 2013 ERA Qualifiers Grouped by Control | |||
| Control | Strike Zone % | ERA | |
| Grade A | 47.6% | 3.27 | |
| Grade B | 44.8% | 3.52 | |
| Grade C | 43.4% | 3.70 | |
| Grade D | 40.8% | 3.91 | |
It seems like basic common sense that has been lost in batter hitting squares and defense shift charts plotted by statistical data. If pitchers throw more strikes, they allow fewer runs. The report stated that the 21 starters who threw the most pitches in the strike zone (Grade A Control Pitchers) allowed more than half a run less per nine innings than the 20 starters who threw the fewest pitches in the zone (Grade D). The best pitchers in the game throw the most strikes.
Throwing more strikes also means that a pitcher is more efficient. Pitching coaches will preach that it is important to get ahead of the count early in an at-bat. A batter that is down in the count is more defensive at the plate. Pitchers tend to forget that the best hitters in the game only get a hit 30 percent of the time. Pitchers who tend to nibble on the corners throw more pitchers (which leads to higher pitch counts and less innings pitched). All teams have gone mental on pitch counts in order to protect pitchers from injury. A batter that is ahead in the count is better able to judge where the next pitch is coming in the zone - - - as to increase the chances for contact.
Throwing strikes does not mean grooving batting practice pitches down the heart of the plate. Major league pitching is still an art form. A pitcher with a 100 mph fastball can throw the pitch by the hitter. A pitcher with an 88 mph fastball can get the pitch past the hitter if it has movement through spin.
It is easier for a pitcher to set up a hitter if he can hit his catcher's spots consistently. The strike zone has shrunk to belt to knees, but that should not stop a pitcher from throwing a letter high pitch in order to set up a slider later in the count.
There are three ways for a pitch to be called a strike. The batter must swing and miss; hit a foul ball; or not swing at a pitch in the strike zone. For the set up pitch, the pitcher must "freeze" the hitter who is guessing what type of pitch is coming next. Good hitters always say that they always prepare that the next pitch will be a fastball, so they can adjust if it off-speed (since it is extremely difficult to do the opposite). Hitting is series of split second decisions of eye to hand coordination. A pitcher who can mask the type of pitch longer (by hiding the ball or by pitching motion) can have an advantage.
Good quality pitchers really have no fear of throwing strikes. Basic math is on their side. Sabermetric managers want hitters to be more selective, take pitches and work a count to improve OBP via walks. But a pitcher with command knows that a hitter will swing probably only half the time. And if he gets a hit only 30 percent of his swings, then there really is only a 16.5 percent effective contact rate at play.
A pitcher who does not have command has efficiency issues. It takes 4 balls for a batter to get a walk versus 3 strikes to get a batter out. The rules provide a pitcher with a 25 percent advantage at the start of an at-bat.
In a 2008 post at Baseball ThinkTank, the idea of pitcher efficiency was further researched to conclude that the real purpose of a pitcher is to get outs (not necessarily strike outs) in the most efficient manner. It is called Pitching Toward Outs.
There is a stereotype given to strikeout pitchers that says they use more pitches (which they do) and somehow aren’t as efficient as pitchers who pitch to contact. But, have you ever wondered which pitchers achieve their positive outcome (an out in play or a strikeout) in the most efficient manner? Example: A pitcher who struck out every batter he faced on three pitches and induced outs in play on the first pitch would be considered extremely efficient.The formula was devised to measure pitcher towards outs efficiency:
PTO% = (SO*3)+SH+SF+(AB-SO-H)/Total Pitches
The formula takes the number of pitches that go directly into getting strikeouts (three strikes) and inducing outs in play (one pitch each) and divides that by the total number of pitches. The end result is the percentage of pitches used directly towards outs. The three strikes needed to get a strikeout are figured in, which allows strikeout pitchers to get a fair shake in this test of efficiency. The remaining pitches not used towards out are “wasted pitches” or negative outcomes (walks or hits). Therefore, a pitcher who goes to a 3-2 count on every batter before getting an outcome would not be looked at as being very efficient under this line of thinking.
A quality pitcher should not have the mindset of "wasting" pitches especially when pitch counts are the new norm. A quality pitcher is one who throws 75 percent of his first pitches for strikes. With an 0-2 count, a pitcher can use a "trick" pitch to get a batter out because the batter is trying to protect the zone from a called strike three. The most effective pitch in that sequence would be the off-speed change which looks at release as a fastball which disrupts a batters eye to hand coordination and swing speed. A three-pitch at bat is much more efficient than a 7 pitch full count for a pitcher.
If a pitcher "saves" just one pitch per out batter per inning for five innings to qualify for a win, that would yield 15 extra pitches against the pitch count, which at the major league level is another full inning of work. A starter who can pitch 6 full innings is more valuable than one who can only manage a pitch count through 5. The latter would add an additional 33 innings to the team's bullpen staff.
And the key to a successful pitcher is the ability to throw strikes early and often.
April 17, 2013
A REAL PROBLEM
The Cubs futility in driving runners in scoring position continues this season. Last night, Barney lines out to centerfield with the bases loaded to end the game.
After 13 games (8 percent of the season), the Cubs clean-up hitter, Soriano has 0 HR and 0 RBI.
And many other team broadcasters have remarked that the Cubs line-up from the 5th hitter on is "not intimidating" or "weak."
The team only has three hitters batting over .300: W. Castillo, Castro and Schierholtz. That's two starters and a platoon outfielder.
The only hope at Triple AAA would be Ryan Sweeney, the ex-Red Sox player. He is batting .382 with 3 HR and 8 RBI. Brett Jackson continues to struggle with strike outs. He is batting .244 with 15 strikeouts in 41 AB. Ian Stewart has played in two games is 0-for-7 at the plate. Josh Vitters has played one game, one AB, no hit.
After 13 games (8 percent of the season), the Cubs clean-up hitter, Soriano has 0 HR and 0 RBI.
And many other team broadcasters have remarked that the Cubs line-up from the 5th hitter on is "not intimidating" or "weak."
The team only has three hitters batting over .300: W. Castillo, Castro and Schierholtz. That's two starters and a platoon outfielder.
The only hope at Triple AAA would be Ryan Sweeney, the ex-Red Sox player. He is batting .382 with 3 HR and 8 RBI. Brett Jackson continues to struggle with strike outs. He is batting .244 with 15 strikeouts in 41 AB. Ian Stewart has played in two games is 0-for-7 at the plate. Josh Vitters has played one game, one AB, no hit.
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