Chalk up 2020 as baseball's Lost Season.
Nothing the owners and players will do going forward will salvage the lingering bitterness of money issues in the middle of an economic crushing pandemic.
MLB will take this messed up world to screw with the game's rules and traditions. Some of the projected changes:
All teams will now use the Designated Hitter. The lack of the DH was the National League's last bastion of tradition - - - and baseball strategy of a manager thinking ahead in a game to use his bullpen and field players in a winning combination. The DH eliminates much of the manager's decision process: pinch hitting, pitching around hitters, double switches, etc.
There will be the realignment that sees
each team play only within its own division and against the five teams
of the corresponding division in the other league. The exact
permutations of that scheduling arrangement could take a variety of
forms (e.g. a pair of three-game series and one four-game series against
divisional opponents, plus one four-game series against each of the
five teams in the opposing league’s corresponding division), but the
goal will be to generally limit travel schedules to the extent possible,
not that it’s a perfect setup for all clubs. In the past many owners have sought realignment by geography to reduce travel expenses. This may be an opportunity to put that new framework in place, but to the potential cost of current rivalries.
A major change is to begin extra innings
with a runner on second base in an alleged effort to avoid marathon games.
(Pitchers would not be charged with an earned run if said runner
scores.) This is a terrible option. It fundamentally changes the purpose of fundamentals of the game: rewarding a team without getting a double. It penalizes a pitcher who at the start of an inning with a runner in scoring position. It also messes up the most sacred thing: statistics. A player's stats need to be fully earned.
If MLB and teams are so concerned that this short season will wreck havoc on pitching staffs because of extra inning games: allow bigger pitching rosters or ALLOW TIES. There is nothing wrong with a tie (it happens in many other sports, including the early history of baseball).
They have also discussed the possibility of allowing already
subbed-out players to reenter the game once it reaches extras. Is this Little League??!!! It gives managers an unlimited Get Out of Jail free card for his line up mistakes.
Since the owners and players have been at odds for the entire year, it is doubtful that any meaningful agreement can be reached by the sides. Health and safety issues are still up in the air. Major league facilities were closed down within weeks after positive tests from players and staff. No one will address what will happen if a player tests positive during the season. Does he go on the DL? Does all his teammates have to be quarantined as being in contact with him? If more than 4 or 5 players test positive, will the club be suspended from play? Do they then forfeit games to get the season to the playoffs? What about umpires and coaches health issues?
There is no guarantee that MLB will get all this right, but substantially changing rules is wrong.
Showing posts with label union. Show all posts
Showing posts with label union. Show all posts
June 23, 2020
May 12, 2020
SHOW US THE MONEY
The salvage show that is the 2020 baseball non-season continues to get strange.
MLB owners had been steadfast against revenue sharing (frequent in other sports). But since the 2020 season now seems to be getting shorter and shorter (if at all), owners have gone back to the union with another re-start proposal.
Prior to his proposal, the union had agreed to a $170 million player fund if the season was canceled. It was a way to settle any litigation over payment of guaranteed contracts, etc. In addition, the plan was to prorate existing player contracts over the number of games actually played in 2020.
But the roadblock to even this negotiated solution is the crippling effect of the shutdown. Individual states have different stay-at-home orders. Science cannot keep up with virus explanations or mathematical models of the contagion. Baseball has no revenue. The golden goose, broadcast TV, has gone sterile as advertising has dried up with most businesses closed or doing poorly.
The owners now want to change the plan to share 48 percent of the "revenue" with the players once the season starts. It is a significant change to the existing baseball payroll structure; a nullification of existing 2020 contract obligations. There is always been multiple account ledgers in baseball. Most teams now consider baseball "revenue" as only what the team pulls in from local TV rights, ticket sales (approx. 30 percent) and concessions. Owners believed that national TV rights, MLB.com and the development of alternative venue sources outside the ball park do not count.
Even if both sides could agree on what counts as "revenue," the owners must have determined that it will be exceptionally low. If you have no revenue, you share zero. If you receive only a fraction of the past revenue, then the players would only get a fraction of a fraction.
National broadcasters have had cable subscriber losses and huge ad revenue declines. There is no time frame for advertisers to return to baseball. Networks will demand concessions due to revenue losses. Owners have had their accountants flip their calculators around to find that prorated 2020 contracts with no significant revenue means massive losses to the owners. It would be better not to open the season.
We know that there are several clubs that were in a financial mess before the virus crisis. The Mets have been a mess for a long time. It is so bad that a vanity couple, A-Rod and J-Lo and their investors, quickly passed at buying the Mets because the financials were so bad. Playing a season could tip one or more clubs into bankruptcy, something that MLB fears the most since it would lose control over who would join their elite ownership club.
The union had stated that it already has a revised 2020 agreement in place with the owners. The union does not have to change its position. It is the owners who are scrambling to find a way to make a profit (and lessen operating expenses - - - salaries, travel costs, etc.).
The Illinois governor has hinted that the "peak" of infections may last through June 15. That means Illinois will remain in lock-down for another month. That would push the Cubs and White Sox back to a late July season start, if at all.An 80 game schedule turns into 65 games. The longer the wait, the closer it is to a point of no return.
It is assumed that there a pent up demand from fans for baseball's return. But I am not so sure. People have been living without "live" sports for two months. They have found other things to occupy their time, including parents who are working from home AND trying to teach their children homework lessons since virtual classrooms are nearly non-existent in elementary schools. Steaming services have been doing well, but there has been a reported peak in new subscribers and a slow down in viewers. Cabin fever has turned into media burnout.
Even if baseball returns, there is no guarantee that fans will jump on board. There is no guarantee that fans will come back to the ball parks. There is no guarantee that TV ratings will be anything close to respectable numbers. The great unknown is harsh. The epidemic is going to gut the middle class; mom and pop businesses that have been closed may never re-open. People want to go back to work, but cannot. People are confused, angry and in choking debt. A surge a bankruptcies will happen. People will not have the disposable income (the shock of the value of their retirement account balances).
It is still a 50-50 chance that this year there will be any professional baseball.
MLB owners had been steadfast against revenue sharing (frequent in other sports). But since the 2020 season now seems to be getting shorter and shorter (if at all), owners have gone back to the union with another re-start proposal.
Prior to his proposal, the union had agreed to a $170 million player fund if the season was canceled. It was a way to settle any litigation over payment of guaranteed contracts, etc. In addition, the plan was to prorate existing player contracts over the number of games actually played in 2020.
But the roadblock to even this negotiated solution is the crippling effect of the shutdown. Individual states have different stay-at-home orders. Science cannot keep up with virus explanations or mathematical models of the contagion. Baseball has no revenue. The golden goose, broadcast TV, has gone sterile as advertising has dried up with most businesses closed or doing poorly.
The owners now want to change the plan to share 48 percent of the "revenue" with the players once the season starts. It is a significant change to the existing baseball payroll structure; a nullification of existing 2020 contract obligations. There is always been multiple account ledgers in baseball. Most teams now consider baseball "revenue" as only what the team pulls in from local TV rights, ticket sales (approx. 30 percent) and concessions. Owners believed that national TV rights, MLB.com and the development of alternative venue sources outside the ball park do not count.
Even if both sides could agree on what counts as "revenue," the owners must have determined that it will be exceptionally low. If you have no revenue, you share zero. If you receive only a fraction of the past revenue, then the players would only get a fraction of a fraction.
National broadcasters have had cable subscriber losses and huge ad revenue declines. There is no time frame for advertisers to return to baseball. Networks will demand concessions due to revenue losses. Owners have had their accountants flip their calculators around to find that prorated 2020 contracts with no significant revenue means massive losses to the owners. It would be better not to open the season.
We know that there are several clubs that were in a financial mess before the virus crisis. The Mets have been a mess for a long time. It is so bad that a vanity couple, A-Rod and J-Lo and their investors, quickly passed at buying the Mets because the financials were so bad. Playing a season could tip one or more clubs into bankruptcy, something that MLB fears the most since it would lose control over who would join their elite ownership club.
The union had stated that it already has a revised 2020 agreement in place with the owners. The union does not have to change its position. It is the owners who are scrambling to find a way to make a profit (and lessen operating expenses - - - salaries, travel costs, etc.).
The Illinois governor has hinted that the "peak" of infections may last through June 15. That means Illinois will remain in lock-down for another month. That would push the Cubs and White Sox back to a late July season start, if at all.An 80 game schedule turns into 65 games. The longer the wait, the closer it is to a point of no return.
It is assumed that there a pent up demand from fans for baseball's return. But I am not so sure. People have been living without "live" sports for two months. They have found other things to occupy their time, including parents who are working from home AND trying to teach their children homework lessons since virtual classrooms are nearly non-existent in elementary schools. Steaming services have been doing well, but there has been a reported peak in new subscribers and a slow down in viewers. Cabin fever has turned into media burnout.
Even if baseball returns, there is no guarantee that fans will jump on board. There is no guarantee that fans will come back to the ball parks. There is no guarantee that TV ratings will be anything close to respectable numbers. The great unknown is harsh. The epidemic is going to gut the middle class; mom and pop businesses that have been closed may never re-open. People want to go back to work, but cannot. People are confused, angry and in choking debt. A surge a bankruptcies will happen. People will not have the disposable income (the shock of the value of their retirement account balances).
It is still a 50-50 chance that this year there will be any professional baseball.
April 9, 2019
CONTRACT EXTENSIONS
Everyone is trying to figure out the dynamics of a weak free agent market and the rash of player extensions. It may be a simple conversion of complex rational behaviors.
First, for the past several years, front offices have gone off the deep end on Big Data. Teams have figured out new statistics on spin rates, hit ball velocity and motion capture mechanics. Teams can break down their players into computer data. Now teams have more stats (good and bad) on their players to justify lower arbitration offers or free agency passes on veterans who used to be paid on past performance.
Second, while baseball is still generating record revenues, there are storm clouds on the horizon as attendance is down, TV ratings are down, TV advertising (and associated broadcast fees) have hit a plateau and demographics are trending to age out. Kids today would rather spend four hours playing Fortnite than watching a baseball game. In order to keep profit margins, teams are relying more on young, cheap and controllable players to fill major league rosters.
Third, the age of the super-agent is fading away. In the last two off-seasons, agents have missed the market trends, especially for the second tier free agents. Teams were armed with weaponized stats proving that older veterans decline in value after age 30. Teams were only going to pay for future performance, hence lower average annual salaries and contract years. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado got their deals because they were both 26, in their prime production years. Other veterans, including pitchers, still sit on the side lines without a job.
Fourth, veteran players and union officials are mad about the free agency market. They whisper collusion but cannot prove it. They are thinking about striking when the current collective bargaining agreement is over. But the prospect of a strike or a lock out does not sit well with a majority of baseball players. Hence, the surge in player extensions (usually at team friendly rates.)
Mid-February 25 contract extensions have been signed, notably by many young players including Ronald Acuña Jr., Blake Snell, and Eloy Jiménez, who had yet to have a major league at-bat. Acuña Jr. and Snell were last year’s Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Award winners while Jiménez could be this year’s ROY.
Acuña, Snell, and Jiménez’s teams locking them up this early in their
careers has a two-fold effect: given how good they are (or, in
Jiménez’s case, could be), they stand to potentially set salary records
going through arbitration. Acuña, for example, was set to become
eligible for arbitration for the first time in 2022. His extension is
for eight years and $100 million, meaning he won’t become a free agent
until after the 2026 season at the earliest. He will earn $15 million in
2022, and $17 million from 2023-26.First, for the past several years, front offices have gone off the deep end on Big Data. Teams have figured out new statistics on spin rates, hit ball velocity and motion capture mechanics. Teams can break down their players into computer data. Now teams have more stats (good and bad) on their players to justify lower arbitration offers or free agency passes on veterans who used to be paid on past performance.
Second, while baseball is still generating record revenues, there are storm clouds on the horizon as attendance is down, TV ratings are down, TV advertising (and associated broadcast fees) have hit a plateau and demographics are trending to age out. Kids today would rather spend four hours playing Fortnite than watching a baseball game. In order to keep profit margins, teams are relying more on young, cheap and controllable players to fill major league rosters.
Third, the age of the super-agent is fading away. In the last two off-seasons, agents have missed the market trends, especially for the second tier free agents. Teams were armed with weaponized stats proving that older veterans decline in value after age 30. Teams were only going to pay for future performance, hence lower average annual salaries and contract years. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado got their deals because they were both 26, in their prime production years. Other veterans, including pitchers, still sit on the side lines without a job.
Fourth, veteran players and union officials are mad about the free agency market. They whisper collusion but cannot prove it. They are thinking about striking when the current collective bargaining agreement is over. But the prospect of a strike or a lock out does not sit well with a majority of baseball players. Hence, the surge in player extensions (usually at team friendly rates.)
Mid-February 25 contract extensions have been signed, notably by many young players including Ronald Acuña Jr., Blake Snell, and Eloy Jiménez, who had yet to have a major league at-bat. Acuña Jr. and Snell were last year’s Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Award winners while Jiménez could be this year’s ROY.
Compare that to Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado (who also signed an extension). Arenado earned a $26 million salary going through his final year of arbitration eligibility. Arenado avoided all the potential drama and cross currents of a broken free agent system by taking the familiar guaranteed money of the Rockies. There is some value in the stability of staying with your current team (professionally and family situations).
Agent Scott Boras, who has had many clients getting paid less than he projected, is not happy with these young prospect extensions:
"Great young players are getting what I call snuff contracts. And a snuff contract is that they’re trying to snuff out the market. They know the player is a great player, and he’s exhibited very little performance. So they’re coming to him at 20 and 21, and I’m going to snuff out your ability to move, to go anywhere, to do anything, and your value. And I’m going to pay you maybe 40 cents on the dollar to do it. What’s my risk?"
Ken Rosenthal recent reported that the players believe team representatives are even circumventing the player and his agent by appealing to the players’ families, especially for players with poor and/or Latin American backgrounds. That may help explain why many young players are taking the guaranteed money. Contract negotiations do not happen in a vacuum. A multimillion dollar guaranteed contract is life changing for most families.
By taking themselves out of the picture, Acuña and Snell cannot set the bar for the industry for players of their caliber, age, and service time, which makes agents jobs much harder to push the boundaries of free agent money. Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel have been caught on the other side looking in as the season started. By testing the free agent waters, Kimbrel and Keuchel have been swept away by teams signing younger players earlier.
But there still are puzzling aspects to contract extensions. The Cubs extended utility infielder David Bote for 5 years, $15 million. Bote is not even a starting player! He is a career .240 hitter. His career WAR is 1.0, not even the level of a AAAA replacement. Yet, Bote went to management and begs for some job security. The 24th man on the roster got his wish with a cash strapped club paying him five times what he was projected to earn in the next 5 years. Teams can still spend oddly in this new era of extensions.
May 13, 2015
THE BONDS THAT BREAK
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that Barry Bonds will file a grievance against baseball owners for allegedly blacklisting him from baseball.
Bonds claims collusion by teams that prevented him from obtaining a playing job following the 2007 season. He has long contended that a collusion of MLB owners effectively ended his career after the 2007 season when he set the career home run record with 762 homers.
However, Bonds was 42 years old during the 2007 season. He was well beyond the normal age for a productive baseball player. And he was under extreme scrutiny both inside and outside of baseball for allegations of PED use.
In 2003, Bonds' name came up during the BALCO scandal when his personal trainer, Greg Anderson was indicted by the U.S. and charged with supplying illegal anabolic steroids to athletes, including baseball players. This led to speculation that Bonds had used performance-enhancing drugs during a time when there was no mandatory testing in Major League Baseball. Bonds declared his innocence, attributing his changed physique and increased power to a strict regimen of bodybuilding, diet and legitimate supplements.
During grand jury testimony on December 4, 2003, Bonds said that he used a clear substance and a cream that he received from his personal strength trainer, Greg Anderson, who told him they were the nutritional supplement flaxseed oil and a rubbing balm for arthritis. Later reports on Bonds’ leaked grand-jury testimony contend that he admitted to unknowingly using "the clear" which was reportedly a form of the designer steroid THG and "the cream" which was reportedly a concoction designed to mask certain hormone ratios helping the user to beat drug tests.
In August 2005, all four defendants in the BALCO steroid scandal trial, including Anderson, struck deals with federal prosecutors that did not require them to reveal names of athletes who may have used banned drugs.
On November 15, 2007, a federal grand jury returned an indictment against Bonds. He was charged with four counts of perjury and one count of obstruction of justice. "During the criminal investigation, evidence was obtained including positive tests for the presence of anabolic steroids and other performance enhancing substances for Bonds and other athletes," the indictment reads. The charges focus on Bonds' responses to the grand jury in his 2003 testimony, specifically his denials when asked if he had used steroids, and whether Anderson had administered steroids to him.
The case went to trial, with Bonds being convicted on one count of obstruction of justice (the jury was hung on other counts) for lying to a grand jury about his alleged steroid use. His conviction was recently overturned on appeal.
Since the BALCO matter is now completed, it appears Bonds is ready to move ahead against MLB.
Bonds and his agent have said that Bonds, despite having a good season (.276 BA, 28 HR, 66 RBI) he received no offers to play in the 2008 season. His reputation of being difficult with the media, aloof from the fans, and caught up in baseball's steroid scandal hurt his chances to becoming a Hall of Fame inductee despite being the game's greatest home run hitter.
It is unclear that Bonds' grievance against the owners will have any traction. Did a 43 year old player with baggage worth a contract offer?
Bonds claims collusion by teams that prevented him from obtaining a playing job following the 2007 season. He has long contended that a collusion of MLB owners effectively ended his career after the 2007 season when he set the career home run record with 762 homers.
However, Bonds was 42 years old during the 2007 season. He was well beyond the normal age for a productive baseball player. And he was under extreme scrutiny both inside and outside of baseball for allegations of PED use.
In 2003, Bonds' name came up during the BALCO scandal when his personal trainer, Greg Anderson was indicted by the U.S. and charged with supplying illegal anabolic steroids to athletes, including baseball players. This led to speculation that Bonds had used performance-enhancing drugs during a time when there was no mandatory testing in Major League Baseball. Bonds declared his innocence, attributing his changed physique and increased power to a strict regimen of bodybuilding, diet and legitimate supplements.
During grand jury testimony on December 4, 2003, Bonds said that he used a clear substance and a cream that he received from his personal strength trainer, Greg Anderson, who told him they were the nutritional supplement flaxseed oil and a rubbing balm for arthritis. Later reports on Bonds’ leaked grand-jury testimony contend that he admitted to unknowingly using "the clear" which was reportedly a form of the designer steroid THG and "the cream" which was reportedly a concoction designed to mask certain hormone ratios helping the user to beat drug tests.
In August 2005, all four defendants in the BALCO steroid scandal trial, including Anderson, struck deals with federal prosecutors that did not require them to reveal names of athletes who may have used banned drugs.
On November 15, 2007, a federal grand jury returned an indictment against Bonds. He was charged with four counts of perjury and one count of obstruction of justice. "During the criminal investigation, evidence was obtained including positive tests for the presence of anabolic steroids and other performance enhancing substances for Bonds and other athletes," the indictment reads. The charges focus on Bonds' responses to the grand jury in his 2003 testimony, specifically his denials when asked if he had used steroids, and whether Anderson had administered steroids to him.
The case went to trial, with Bonds being convicted on one count of obstruction of justice (the jury was hung on other counts) for lying to a grand jury about his alleged steroid use. His conviction was recently overturned on appeal.
Since the BALCO matter is now completed, it appears Bonds is ready to move ahead against MLB.
Bonds and his agent have said that Bonds, despite having a good season (.276 BA, 28 HR, 66 RBI) he received no offers to play in the 2008 season. His reputation of being difficult with the media, aloof from the fans, and caught up in baseball's steroid scandal hurt his chances to becoming a Hall of Fame inductee despite being the game's greatest home run hitter.
It is unclear that Bonds' grievance against the owners will have any traction. Did a 43 year old player with baggage worth a contract offer?
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