The baseball columnists mock drafts have a near unanimous grouping for the top three picks in the June MLB draft: pitchers Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray and third baseman Kris Bryant.
The Rockies pick third. Reports have them focusing in on Bryant. Which is ironic, since I have been pushing for the Cubs to replace Ian Stewart with Bryant for some time now.
Cubs GM Hoyer has recently stated that the team is now going to follow the Nationals blueprint. Many people believe that means drafting the best ace possible (Strasburg) and play him right away.
However, the Nats also selected a position player (Harper) who has not been too bad.
Pitchers are more boom or bust type selections than position players. Position players have a longer body of work and less mechanical movements at the plate to worry about. The Cubs drafted 17 pitchers last year, but only one (Pierce Johnson) gets some fair comments in this year's minor league reports.
Cubs President Epstein has whined that baseball has changed the rules after he started his rebuilding plan. He can no longer have an unlimited budget to sign international free agents. He has a strict slotted draft budget with serious financial and pick penalties. Further, the free agent market has changed significantly with the qualifying offer player who would cost a team a first round draft choice in compensation. The Cubs have failed to adapt to these rules changes to improve their minor league system. On the other end, the Blue Jays have ramped up their AAA team by aggressively using the waiver wire to pick talent off other team rosters.
It comes down to trust. Do you trust a high mileage college pitcher who is looking for "over-slot" compensation more than a potential ten year starter in your infield?
Bryant is the best power bat in the draft. He is also an average third baseman with a plus arm. He could be moved to first or left field for some team (like the Rockies who have a very good, 22 year old third baseman in Nolan Arenado). Bryant will be gone with the third pick.
My gut feeling is that Appel could be the next Mark Prior. He has the stuff of an ace, but he will have an expensive chip on his shoulder after not signing last season (he dropped from first pick to eighth because of signability issues). Many scouts believe Gray as better mechanics, but again the world said the same thing about Prior and Kerry Wood.
Then you have to project ahead. The free agent market is going to be thin in the next few years. The top free agents are going to get qualifying offers of $14 million. That is the floor for their own valuation which is probably too high for clubs to meet, which further restricts the market. Teams will continue to avoid qualifying offers for their own free agents if they have younger, cheaper talent in their system.
So if the Cubs plan was to be competitive by 2016, who projects to be the "core" group of players?
Position players: Castro, Rizzo
Pitchers: E. Jackson, T. Wood, Russell
So the Cubs are still 20 players short with two off-seasons to go. It is a long shot to have even four players in the current system to be ready to play in 2016: Soler, Baez, Watkins and Pierce. Even in the best case, the Cubs are still 16 players short. A lot of money is going to be coming off the books soon, so the possibility that the Cubs will sign second tier free agents to fill out their roster is probable. But there is a drought in available third base talent. The Cubs have no viable candidate in the minors (Josh Vitters possibly gets one more chance; Christian Villaneuva is struggling in minors).
There is a basic philosophical question: do you believe it is better to take the best position player on your board first, or take the best available player no matter the position?
From a raw number sense:
A starting position player will play 150 games a season or 1500 for a decade career.
A starting pitcher will throw 33 games a season or 330 games for a decade career.
One could argue that a star position player is worth five times more than a starting pitcher.
Tempering the discussion is the fact that Epstein-Hoyer have yet to develop for the Cubs a starting quality pitcher. We don't know if they have the ability to hire the right people or supervise in such a way as to develop an entire staff of quality arms.
That is why Bryant still makes the most sense for the Cubs if he is available at the #2 pick.
May 17, 2013
May 15, 2013
DOWN ON THE FARM
There have been reports that Iowa Cubs pitching is really, really bad.
A quick check of the PCL standings shows Iowa with a 14-22 record, with a team ERA of 5.51 and a team WHIP of 1.59. As a team, those pitching cums are terrible.
Here is a list of the Iowa pitching stats to date (note Chapman is on the DL):
A quick check of the PCL standings shows Iowa with a 14-22 record, with a team ERA of 5.51 and a team WHIP of 1.59. As a team, those pitching cums are terrible.
Here is a list of the Iowa pitching stats to date (note Chapman is on the DL):
| Player | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | SHO | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | HB | BB | SO | WHIP | HLD | GF |
| Kyuji Fujikawa | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Guillermo Moscoso | 2 | 0 | 1.69 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16.0 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 1.13 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Parker | 0 | 1 | 2.63 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13.2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 1.02 | 0 | 11 |
| Yoanner Negrin | 0 | 1 | 2.66 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23.2 | 27 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 1.44 | 2 | 3 |
| Matt Garza | 0 | 0 | 2.70 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Putnam | 0 | 1 | 3.52 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15.1 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 1.37 | 2 | 6 |
| Casey Coleman | 0 | 0 | 4.15 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.0 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1.46 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Rusin | 2 | 3 | 4.37 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45.1 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 1.21 | 0 | 1 |
| Hisanori Takahashi | 0 | 0 | 5.00 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0.89 | 2 | 0 |
| Brooks Raley | 3 | 3 | 5.30 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.1 | 49 | 22 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 1.58 | 0 | 0 |
| Esmailin Caridad | 3 | 1 | 5.74 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.2 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 1.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Drew Carpenter | 1 | 4 | 6.19 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32.0 | 36 | 23 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 23 | 1.59 | 0 | 0 |
| Rafael Dolis | 0 | 0 | 6.52 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9.2 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 1.55 | 2 | 7 |
| Nick Struck | 1 | 3 | 6.67 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29.2 | 41 | 22 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 1.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Cory Wade | 0 | 2 | 7.88 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16.0 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 2.19 | 0 | 3 |
| Barret Loux | 2 | 2 | 8.22 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23.0 | 37 | 21 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 22 | 2.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaye Chapman | 0 | 0 | 17.05 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.1 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2.84 | 0 | 1 |
| Jensen Lewis | 0 | 1 | 17.18 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3.55 | 0 | 3 |
May 14, 2013
PLEASE! KNOCK ON WOOD
The Cubs broadcast crew was fawning over Travis Wood. Wood had just thrown his eighth consecutive "quality start" (which is an inflated and nebulous statistic). The announcers were calling Wood the greatest pitcher since Hippo Vaughn.
Really?
Vaughn pitched 13 major league seasons (1908-1921). He compiled a career record of 178-137, in 390 games pitched; he had 214 complete games and threw 2730 IP. His career ERA was 2.49. His career WHIP 1.201. His career WAR was 24.9.
In 1918, Vaughn was the NL pitcher of the year, leading the league in wins (22), ERA (1.74) and strikeouts (148).
Wood is 4-2, with a 2.03 ERA for 2013. But Wood still only has a career WAR of 0.8 in his four big league seasons.
Wood is having a nice season so far, but broadcasters on bad teams get carried away trying to find a positive spin. Wood is the #4 starter on a bad team. He is not the reincarnation of Hippo Vaughn.
Really?
Vaughn pitched 13 major league seasons (1908-1921). He compiled a career record of 178-137, in 390 games pitched; he had 214 complete games and threw 2730 IP. His career ERA was 2.49. His career WHIP 1.201. His career WAR was 24.9.
In 1918, Vaughn was the NL pitcher of the year, leading the league in wins (22), ERA (1.74) and strikeouts (148).
Wood is 4-2, with a 2.03 ERA for 2013. But Wood still only has a career WAR of 0.8 in his four big league seasons.
Wood is having a nice season so far, but broadcasters on bad teams get carried away trying to find a positive spin. Wood is the #4 starter on a bad team. He is not the reincarnation of Hippo Vaughn.
May 13, 2013
ANOTHER EARLY EXTENSION
The cornerstone of the New Cubs Way is to overspend. It is like a person who earns one dollar but then has an uncontrollable urge to immediately spend two dollars.
The Cubs signed another young player to a long term extension. Several reports state that Anthony Rizzo will receive a $41 million extension covering 2013-2019 with two club options. The total value of the contract is approximately $70 million. The two options for 2020 and 2021 are for $14.5 million each.
This is the second major long term commitment made by the Cubs. Last season, the Cubs signed Starlin Castro is a seven year deal that locks him up through 2019. That deal was worth $60.5 million with a $16 million club option in 2020. Castro made the jump from the minimum salary to $5 million this year.
Is Rizzo worth an average of $6.83 million per year?
When Castro got his pay day, he had played in 445 games. He had hit 27 HR, 185 RBI, 57 SB and .296 BA in three seasons. He had a career 8.0 WAR.
Rizzo only has 173 career games. He has hit 25 HR, 85 RBI, .253 BA, 9 SB and a career 3.2 WAR.
Castro had a better track record before his extension. But in the year after, Castro's production has dropped to 3 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB, .272 BA in 37 games of 2013. It is not surprising that often young players who get early big money extensions have their performance drop off. It is human nature. They have been rewarded for a massive increase in future performance, but there is no incentive to continue to hone one's skills. Castro has not improved his game; some would say his defense continues to be troublesome.
The Cubs are trying to play the Tampa Bay game of signing their young stars to long term contracts. Except, that is still a minority view point. These extensions are guaranteed and more costly than the stair step contract increases that arbitration grants players.
Fans can debate whether this is a good move to sign a young player without a full season of major league experience to a deal that locks him up to 2020. Other factors in the decision could be the marketing fingerprint of having a program cover boy year after year. But again, the counterbalance is a simple two words: Micah Hoffpauir. He had an All-Star first half in 2009, and was out of the majors less than a year later.
But this really signals that there will be no competition for Rizzo at first base. That means the Cubs best power hitter, Dan Vogelbach (in Class A ball) should start playing LF if the front office has any plans for him.
The Cubs signed another young player to a long term extension. Several reports state that Anthony Rizzo will receive a $41 million extension covering 2013-2019 with two club options. The total value of the contract is approximately $70 million. The two options for 2020 and 2021 are for $14.5 million each.
This is the second major long term commitment made by the Cubs. Last season, the Cubs signed Starlin Castro is a seven year deal that locks him up through 2019. That deal was worth $60.5 million with a $16 million club option in 2020. Castro made the jump from the minimum salary to $5 million this year.
Is Rizzo worth an average of $6.83 million per year?
When Castro got his pay day, he had played in 445 games. He had hit 27 HR, 185 RBI, 57 SB and .296 BA in three seasons. He had a career 8.0 WAR.
Rizzo only has 173 career games. He has hit 25 HR, 85 RBI, .253 BA, 9 SB and a career 3.2 WAR.
Castro had a better track record before his extension. But in the year after, Castro's production has dropped to 3 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB, .272 BA in 37 games of 2013. It is not surprising that often young players who get early big money extensions have their performance drop off. It is human nature. They have been rewarded for a massive increase in future performance, but there is no incentive to continue to hone one's skills. Castro has not improved his game; some would say his defense continues to be troublesome.
The Cubs are trying to play the Tampa Bay game of signing their young stars to long term contracts. Except, that is still a minority view point. These extensions are guaranteed and more costly than the stair step contract increases that arbitration grants players.
Fans can debate whether this is a good move to sign a young player without a full season of major league experience to a deal that locks him up to 2020. Other factors in the decision could be the marketing fingerprint of having a program cover boy year after year. But again, the counterbalance is a simple two words: Micah Hoffpauir. He had an All-Star first half in 2009, and was out of the majors less than a year later.
But this really signals that there will be no competition for Rizzo at first base. That means the Cubs best power hitter, Dan Vogelbach (in Class A ball) should start playing LF if the front office has any plans for him.
May 11, 2013
BITTER PILL TO SWALLOW
Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald reported that after Ian Stewart returned to Iowa, he has spent his time on the bench. Miles infers that the Cubs front office is not happy with Stewart or his attitude:
The Cubs' handling of the Ian Stewart situation was the first real indication of how this organization will deal with a player it's unhappy with.
Stewart did not start again Thursday for Class AAA Iowa, one day after the Cubs took him off the 40-man roster by outrighting him after he cleared waivers.
General manager Jed Hoyer expressed his disappointment earlier this week that Stewart took the full 72 hours allowed to report to Iowa after the Cubs optioned him there. What seemed to rankle the Cubs was Stewart already was with Iowa on a rehab assignment, and he needed at-bats.
In addition to taking Stewart off the 40-man, they're giving playing time at third to Josh Vitters. So Epstein and Hoyer essentially have told Stewart that if he wants to collect his $2 million, he can do it as a Triple-A player on the bench.
At the time, I never thought the Cubs trade for Stewart was a good one. It was a knee jerk reaction by the new bosses to fill a huge line up gap when Aramis Ramirez left the team. The Cubs have up two major league ready prospects, Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu for Stewart, whose last good season was in 2009. Stewart continued with more injuries, only playing 55 games for the Cubs in 2012. Colvin and LeMahieu contributed to the Rockies last season.
Despite getting no production from Stewart, the Cubs doubled down on their bet and re-signed Stewart to a $2 million contract. Stewart immediately got hurt in spring training. But instead of cutting him before opening day (and saving $1.5 million), the Cubs put him on the disabled list, guaranteeing his full salary. (Note: Esptein said that the baseball team had "maxed" out its budget by the beginning of the year. The one move cost the Cubs a serviceable FA bench player.) Then Stewart went to his rehab assignment and was horrible, batting a weak .096, and playing poor defense.
Colvin is a much better player than Stewart. He could play all three outfield positions and first base (a position that still has no real back up for Rizzo). Even though he got off to a poor spring, Colvin is batting .290 with 4 HRs, 15 RBI, 2 SB at AAA. In addition, LeMahieu is batting .376, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 5 SB in AAA.
It is clear that both Colvin and LeMahieu make it back to the majors with Colorado before Stewart is recalled to any major league team. It is doubtful that Stewart will return to the Cubs lineup since Valbuena and Ransom seem to have locked down third base for Sveum. The whole Stewart saga continues to raise the question on how well is the new front office in spending payroll dollars.
The Cubs' handling of the Ian Stewart situation was the first real indication of how this organization will deal with a player it's unhappy with.
Stewart did not start again Thursday for Class AAA Iowa, one day after the Cubs took him off the 40-man roster by outrighting him after he cleared waivers.
General manager Jed Hoyer expressed his disappointment earlier this week that Stewart took the full 72 hours allowed to report to Iowa after the Cubs optioned him there. What seemed to rankle the Cubs was Stewart already was with Iowa on a rehab assignment, and he needed at-bats.
In addition to taking Stewart off the 40-man, they're giving playing time at third to Josh Vitters. So Epstein and Hoyer essentially have told Stewart that if he wants to collect his $2 million, he can do it as a Triple-A player on the bench.
At the time, I never thought the Cubs trade for Stewart was a good one. It was a knee jerk reaction by the new bosses to fill a huge line up gap when Aramis Ramirez left the team. The Cubs have up two major league ready prospects, Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu for Stewart, whose last good season was in 2009. Stewart continued with more injuries, only playing 55 games for the Cubs in 2012. Colvin and LeMahieu contributed to the Rockies last season.
Despite getting no production from Stewart, the Cubs doubled down on their bet and re-signed Stewart to a $2 million contract. Stewart immediately got hurt in spring training. But instead of cutting him before opening day (and saving $1.5 million), the Cubs put him on the disabled list, guaranteeing his full salary. (Note: Esptein said that the baseball team had "maxed" out its budget by the beginning of the year. The one move cost the Cubs a serviceable FA bench player.) Then Stewart went to his rehab assignment and was horrible, batting a weak .096, and playing poor defense.
Colvin is a much better player than Stewart. He could play all three outfield positions and first base (a position that still has no real back up for Rizzo). Even though he got off to a poor spring, Colvin is batting .290 with 4 HRs, 15 RBI, 2 SB at AAA. In addition, LeMahieu is batting .376, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 5 SB in AAA.
It is clear that both Colvin and LeMahieu make it back to the majors with Colorado before Stewart is recalled to any major league team. It is doubtful that Stewart will return to the Cubs lineup since Valbuena and Ransom seem to have locked down third base for Sveum. The whole Stewart saga continues to raise the question on how well is the new front office in spending payroll dollars.
May 10, 2013
May 9, 2013
ENOUGH IS ENOUGH
Ian Stewart has been a problem since the Cubs acquired him in a trade with Colorado.
He came to the Cubs to replace Aramis Ramirez at third base. We were told that he had left handed power and played good defense. But he had spent most of that season prior to the trade in the minors. He also had injury issues. But the Cubs dealt for him anyway.
In Stewart's first season, he was terrible. He hit only .201, 5 HR, 18 RBI in 55 games. He was sidelined with a wrist injury. It was not well reported that Stewart did most of his rehab work not with the Cubs but on his own at home. In retrospect, that was a bad sign.
Despite having no production in 2012 and his injury history, the Cubs signed the free agent to a $2 million contract. When he got hurt in spring training and never played well, the Cubs could have cut him with a 25 percent termination fee. But no, the Cubs kept him on the roster. His recovery from his new injury was slow.
He played 13 games at AAA Iowa. He hit .091, 0 HR, 4 RBI in 13 games. He committed 4 errors at third base and had a woeful .852 fielding percentage. So when his rehab assignment was done, the Cubs had to make a move. Either promote him or assign him to the minors. In taking the tact that Stewart was staying at Iowa, Stewart left the team for 72 hours (which is the reporting time under the CBA). But since he was already on the Iowa roster, it seemed like a petty move on his part.
Today, we learn that the Cubs put Stewart on waivers in order to outright him to Iowa. This removes him from the 40 man roster. This means the Cubs have only 39 protected players. The Cubs still have to pay Stewart his $2 million salary for 2013. But at this point in time, it is dead money.
It is hard to justify keeping Stewart around in Iowa. Will he take playing time away from Josh Vitters at third? Vitters still has a hope of potential left. Stewart has not been a major league player in three years. Instead of assigning him to Iowa, the Cubs should have cut ties with Stewart.
He came to the Cubs to replace Aramis Ramirez at third base. We were told that he had left handed power and played good defense. But he had spent most of that season prior to the trade in the minors. He also had injury issues. But the Cubs dealt for him anyway.
In Stewart's first season, he was terrible. He hit only .201, 5 HR, 18 RBI in 55 games. He was sidelined with a wrist injury. It was not well reported that Stewart did most of his rehab work not with the Cubs but on his own at home. In retrospect, that was a bad sign.
Despite having no production in 2012 and his injury history, the Cubs signed the free agent to a $2 million contract. When he got hurt in spring training and never played well, the Cubs could have cut him with a 25 percent termination fee. But no, the Cubs kept him on the roster. His recovery from his new injury was slow.
He played 13 games at AAA Iowa. He hit .091, 0 HR, 4 RBI in 13 games. He committed 4 errors at third base and had a woeful .852 fielding percentage. So when his rehab assignment was done, the Cubs had to make a move. Either promote him or assign him to the minors. In taking the tact that Stewart was staying at Iowa, Stewart left the team for 72 hours (which is the reporting time under the CBA). But since he was already on the Iowa roster, it seemed like a petty move on his part.
Today, we learn that the Cubs put Stewart on waivers in order to outright him to Iowa. This removes him from the 40 man roster. This means the Cubs have only 39 protected players. The Cubs still have to pay Stewart his $2 million salary for 2013. But at this point in time, it is dead money.
It is hard to justify keeping Stewart around in Iowa. Will he take playing time away from Josh Vitters at third? Vitters still has a hope of potential left. Stewart has not been a major league player in three years. Instead of assigning him to Iowa, the Cubs should have cut ties with Stewart.
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