BACK UP THE MOVING VAN

 The Cubs 11 game losing streak has changed the team's view of the playoffs and off-season programs.

The remaining core and recent additions are pending free agents: Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Pedersen. Kimbrel and Contreras have one more year of potential control. 

With the CBA expiring at the end of the season, there is great uncertainty on what will happen to the free agent market and whether the FA compensation rules will change. Currenty, only those who turn down the one-year qualifying offer from their clubs will have compensation attached to them. Those offers must be made by the club within the first five full days after the World Series ends, and players then have 10 days to accept or decline the offer, during which time they can negotiate with other teams

Under the current rules, if the team that loses the free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2019 MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.

The following 16 teams currently qualify for these picks: A's, Braves, Brewers, D-backs, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers and Twins.

If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. The 12 clubs that fall into this category are the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox and Yankees.

The Cubs have several options with their pending free agents:

1. Keep them through the season. Let the core group have a final swan song together. Then let me go on their merry way.

2. Keep them through the season. Then offer them a qualifying offer (last year was $17.6 million) or even arbitration. If the player rejects the QO, then potential draft compensation may attach. If rejects arbitration, then no draft comp.

3. Try to negotiate an extension with the players. We have only heard crickets this season on any extension talk. With Ricketts claiming poverty and Hoyer trading his best starter in a clear salary dump, ownership has not signaled any willingness to commit large dollars to their old players.

4. Think about trades. If you think your scouting department can pick gems in compensatory rounds (picks from 48 to 100), then waiting to draft someone could be more valuable than trading a rental player for a low minor league prospect. Trading partners this year are highly unlikely to part with any of their Top 15-20 prospects for a two month rental player. Only if two or more teams fight over player will the value rise. 

5. Have a fire sale. Try to squeeze as much value as you can from your current roster. Everybody has a chance to get on the moving van. Trade deadline contenders usually want closers, starters and specialty hitters/defenders to fill in bench role. Kimbrel probably has the most trade value because he has had a solid year. Contreras is probably the second most valuable trade chip. He has one more year of control and is a top NL catcher. A team like the White Sox could use him now. Hendricks has already signed a team friendly extension so I doubt he will be moved but he has as much value as Contreras. Bryant is purely a rental who will hit the FA market. His up and down little injuries year does not help. Unless a contender loses a middle of the line up bat, market interest may be thin for KB. Baez has less market value than Bryant. He is too inconsistent at the plate and lately in the field (14 errors). He has the personality and PR appeal that could help some clubs sell tickets but not at a great trade cost. Pedersen fits into the Schwarber mode (DH more than OF) which limits thinking to AL teams. 

6. Let them test the free agent market, then negotiate a new deal in the wild. It is possible to try to reel back in one of your players. The Cubs did it with pitcher Hamel. But it is rare. And the Cubs would have to dramatically change its small market mind set. Also, free agents want a chance to win now and it is clear the Cubs do not have the organizational depth to field a championship caliber contender in the next few years.

If the Cubs stumble into the All Star break, the fire sale is the most likely option. But look at the Darvish trade as the bitter cough medicine fans will have to swallow. The Cubs received nothing of value in return and only one marginal major leaguer (Davies). At the trade deadline, I would expect only Class A ball players in return for any one except maybe Kimbrel or Contreras. But even then, most teams would rather see how the new CBA financial terms will be set before parting with any of their controllable (i.e. cheap) minor league players. Teams have learned their is more value in developing and promoting their draft choices to keep them for 7 years than trading away good prospects for an illusory chance at the pennant or World Series.

If I were to guess on who will be traded I think Kimbrel, Baez and Bryant are the candidates. I think the team will keep Rizzo to the end of the year because he is still the face of their franchise and the Cub house leader. I think the strong push to eliminate the 2016 team is apparent as the championship has been an actual anchor drag on the team as the players generally did not improve and scouting and operations departments failed to draft and develop their replacements.

TEAR DOWN

 Part of the MLB Trade Rumors live chat from December 29:

Cubs (Comment)

2:01

Seems they just gave away Darvish. Also are Cubs in rebuild now.

 

Steve Adams (Response)

2:03

They pretty much did. They're a worse team now with Davies than with Darvish and Caratini, and no one else they acquired will help them before 2023. This team won the division and went to the playoffs -- and despite the fact that no one else in the NL Central is trying, the Cubs are content to just deliberately get worse. I'd be furious if I were a Cubs fan.

 

 "I'd be furious if I were a Cubs fan."

The Cubs are not in a rebuild. They are in a tear down. Epstein left early because he did not want the terrible job to trade away or cut his "friends" (players he signed). One commentator said of the Darvish deal, he did not realize that Jed Hoyer was still working for the Padres.

It does send an awful message to Cub Land.

It was reported that the Cubs lost $200 million in 2020. However, if you look closely, that is an exaggeration. And most of the losses were self-inflicted by ownership.

The Cubs biggest problem was its television deal. Or lack of one. The Marquee Network was a first year failure. Comcast did not pay the Cubs network until October.  The national TV revenue was probably cut to a third. The Cubs current radio rights deal is very small when it burned itself by leaving WGN in a bumbling fashion. The Cubs probably had total broadcast revenue of $25 million.

But the Cubs payroll of $214 million was prorated down to $71 million. Plus, the Cubs saved on not funding any minor league affiliates. Plus, early in the year, the Cubs laid off most of its scouting and development staff. In reality, the "baseball operations" may have lost $50 million in 2020.

But the Ricketts biblical horror has to do with the fact no fans came to games. They claim that 67 percent of their revenue comes from fans attending games. Again, there is no way to know if that is true.  But the argument is mixing apples and oranges as a great portion of Ricketts family revenue comes from non-baseball operations. Wrigley Field is a separate revenue entity. Ricketts lost all extra concert revenues. The bars and restaurants in Gallagher Way had no thirsty fans to spend big money pre and post games. There were several tenants in Ricketts buildings that went out of business, including Joe Maddon's restaurant, meant that rental revenues were seriously down. The hotel was closed for the entire year, so no revenue from that property. The other ancillary businesses, such as the parking lot revenue, also evaporated. But part of the problem of Ricketts financial cries is that they overbuilt the neighborhood, relied on public support at inflated prices, and bombed at creating their own cash cow network. If Ricketts lost $200 million, it is fair to guess that most of it is from bad ancillary business operations.

As it stands today, the Cubs projected 2021 payroll is $122 million. If the Cubs trade of Darvish is any indication, the pending free agents of Bryant (owed $18.6 M), Rizzo ($16.5 M) and Baez ($11 M) are also trade targets (but at much lesser value than Darvish). You might as well add Hendricks ($14 M) to the fire sale bargain bin. If you trade those players, Ricketts lops off another $60.1 million in payroll. NOW, YOU CAN BOAST you are at $62 million, small market level which means you may be able to break even on the baseball side in 2021.

It is obvious that Ricketts and the front office do not care about the fans. The Cubs WON the division this year. The Reds and Brewers already signaled that they were giving up on 2021. The Pirates are already in the early stages of a complete rebuild. The Cardinals lost veterans and seem to be willing to stay pat this off-season. The NL Central is going to be a weak and crappy division that the Cubs could win again if the team stayed as is. 

To say that Davies, Mills, Alzolay and Rea are just as good as Darvish, Lester, Chatwood and Quintana is an insult. The Cubs currently only have TWO outfielders listed on their 40 man roster. It speaks to the fact that the 2021 roster will be filled in with cheap, journeymen players at the end of their careers. It stinks like the teams Epstein pulled together during his rebuild (the ones he wanted losses from to get high, no risk first round draft picks).

The one elephant in the room that the Ricketts cannot see is that the great Cub fandom is not going to pay premium prices to watch a crappy, tear down AAA team play at Wrigley Field. Fans do not have to - - - they have their World Series Championship and those memories. The Cubs lost their "lovable loser" badge in favor of dynasty championship franchise. The latter did not materialize even though the Cubs did make the playoffs. The bitter taste is that the young core that has aged out underperformed (sat on their laurels) with only one World Series appearance.

This tear down will be brutal and further be financially destructive to ownership who still thinks owning the "Cubs brand" is like printing money. The pandemic may not be under control until July, 2021 when the vaccines will be readily available to the general public. The middle class that lost their businesses due to lock down closures, bankruptcies and lack of employment opportunities is not going to be season ticket holders or even cable subscribers as the season starts. 

No one is going to shed a "tear" for ownership during the tear down because the Ricketts are not very well liked in Chicago. The family politics and relationship with Sinclair still irks some fans. People will not pay premium dollars for an inferior product when there is a young and exciting baseball team on the South Side of town.

REBUILDS

The White Sox made another big trade, getting rid of three major league players for three prospects and a relief pitcher.

The White Sox are following the Cubs tear down style of rebuilding their organization.

The Sox may have the best farm system in the game with 9 Top 100 prospects.

But if you look at what these rebuilds represents a key level: failure.

Failure of a team's existing draft and developmental skills of players they targeted for the minor leagues.

Only 2 of the Sox Top 10 prospects were drafted by the team (SP Fulmer and C Collins). The rest of the top prospects have been acquired through trade or international free agency.

This style of burn down the major league roster to acquire a boat load of prospects is a risky venture because not all prospects pan out to be major league players. In addition, the team is going to have a rough time winning at the major league level. Sox attendance has been historically tied to the team winning games.

This plan also is couched as a long term solution to correct mediocrity but it is a short term hit or miss operation. If the prospects you acquired do not become All-Star caliber players (or even good major league players), your major league roster is devoid of trade assets to try and second rebuild operation.

The Dodger way has been to draft well, have exceptional development programs in the minors, to create the ability to promote every season  a rookie-of-the-year candidate. In the last few years, the Dodgers called up impact players Corey Seager, Joc Pedersen and Cody Bellinger. Add a home grown ace like Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers have the luxury to trade veterans or pick up key free agents on an annual basis to meet specific needs.

The Cubs reaped the highest reward from its rebuild: a championship. But now a year removed, the Cubs have struggled to maintain the championship caliber. Last year's players are not hitting, fielding or pitching like they did last season.  Was 2016 an fluke? Is 2017 more the norm?

And the Cubs now find themselves with their prized prospects on the major league roster, and their farm system weak after trading away the remaining high prospects for needs such as a closer in Chapman last season and a starter in Quintana this year.  The Cubs have been caught in a trap of their own making; the team was built to win with the existing roster for the next few years. If they cannot perform up to the front office expectations, then this would be a huge set back for the organization.

AFFORDABLE STARTERS (REVISED POST)

The following column was to be posted tomorrow. It was a discussion on why the White Sox could not trade starter Jose Quintana, since he is the most affordable starting pitcher in baseball.  But game changing news today:

CHICAGO (ESPN) The Cubs and White Sox pulled off a blockbuster deal with the White Sox sending lefty Jose Quintana to their crosstown rivals for Cubs top hitting prospect Eloy Jimenez as well as top pitching prospect Dylan Cease.

The Cubs are also sending Single-A infielders Matt Rose and Bryant Flete to the White Sox to complete the deal.

Jimenez, a 20-year-old outfielder, is the No. 5 prospect in baseball, according to ESPN's Keith Law.
Quintana, 28, is 4-8 with a 4.49 ERA this season after going 13-12 with a 3.20 ERA last year. He has a career 3.51 ERA and fills an immediate and long-term need for the Cubs as they're short on starting pitching. They rank eighth in the National League in starter's ERA plus employ pending free agents John Lackey and Jake Arrieta.


"It is always extremely difficult to trade a person and player like Jose Quintana," White Sox general manager Rich Hahn said in a statement, "but difficult as it was, this deal moves us closer to our goal of building a team capable of contending for multiple championships over an extended period of time. Jose, our scouts and coaches throughout the organization deserve a tremendous amount of credit for his development from a minor league free agent signee to one of the most sought-after talents in the game."

The Cubs have been looking to add to their pitching staff, which has performed much worse this season that in last year's World Series run, but they did not want a rental. Quintana is under contract through 2020, earning $8.85 million, $10.5 million and $11.5 million in 2018-20.

The following post still discusses the concept of affordable starters. The Cubs acquisition of Quintana is a huge deal for the defending champs. And it was quite unexpected since the Cubs had been discussing affordable pitchers with the Tigers.

The original post:

MLB general managers favorite buzz phrase is "affordable starters." Every team is looking to acquire affordable, young (cheap), controllable (years on contract before free agency) starters (who can throw 200+ innings per season).

It is like trying to find unicorns in the local forest preserve.

Traditionally, teams developed their own rotations from drafting quality pitchers. However, many teams have abandoned this hit or miss strategy to buy or trade for starting pitchers. A free agent veteran costs more money because there is a proven track record. A minor league prospect also has a track record but no major league experience to determine if his stuff will make it long term in the majors. The best hitters often feast on the weakest pitchers.

Contending teams are always looking to upgrade their pitching staffs in late summer as insurance against injury or dry spells. But teams that are out of contention now want a King's ransom for any pitcher who may have a promising career.

The White Sox are still looking to get two Top 10 prospects and at least one major league ready position player in trade for Jose Quintana. Quintana had been a solid #2 starter behind Chris Sale. He has not gotten the run support from Sox during his career, but he has been a solid performer.

Quintana, 28, in 172 games has a career 50-54, 3.51 ERA, 1.250 WHIP and 21.1 WAR.

This year is stats are down (but lately improving.) He is 4-8, 4.49 ERA, 1.323 WHIP and 0.9 WAR.

The most important feature about him is his team friendly contract. He is signed through the 2020 season for $31.9 million. That is less than 5th starter money these days. His average WAR salary value per season is $20 million. Clearly, he is a bargain starter.

So the White Sox are justified in asking for the moon to trade Quintana. It seems to be a done deal except for a trade partner.

But should the White Sox trade their #1 starter?

Only if you believe Carlos Rodon can be your #1 in the future. Rodon, 24, in 2.5 years has a 19-18 record, 3.93 ERA and 1.414 WHIP and 3.0 WAR.

The saving grace is that the White Sox have built up a massive amount of quality pitching arms in the minors. Of their top 20 prospects, 10 are pitchers: Kopech (2), Giolito (4), Lopez (5), Fulmer (6), Burdi (8), Hansen (10), Dunning (11), Adams (12), Stephens (14) and Flores (19).  Beck and Holmberg have already been promoted to the major league roster.

Kopech, Giolito, Lopez and Fulmer will be promoted to the bigs within two years as starters. Burdi's 100 mph stuff projects as the new closer. By 2019, the White Sox could have a 9+ deep starting staff.

But that presumes that none of the prospects have arm injuries or the yips when they face major league hitters. The White Sox coaching staff does have a track record of developing starting pitchers so there is hope very soon for a pitching windfall.

But the Sox could be even stronger if they kept the durable Quintana in the rotation. That way the team does not have to rush a prospect to the major league club. And Quintana is THE affordable, controllable pitcher that any team, including the White Sox, will always look for their roster.

REVERSE COURSE FULL SPEED AHEAD

In the previous two off-seasons, White Sox GM Hahn was credited as winning the winter by the moves he made to bring major league talent in an effort to win now. But all those acquisitions underperformed to the point of discontent both in the locker room and stands.

At mid-season, Hahn said he was unhappy with the performance of his club. He said the off-season would signal which direction the team was going to take. It is apparent this is a total, painful, four year rebuild process.

Ace Chris Sale had worn out his welcome with President Kenny Williams. The Sox could not win with him, so with his three year $48 million ownership friendly deal, the White Sox acquired four Red Sox prospects, including the #1 overall position prospect in Yoan Moncada.

Boston also sent highly touted pitching prospect Michael Kopech, outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe and right-hander Victor Diaz to Chicago. Moncada is the #1 ranked in the game, according to MLBPipeline.com. The deal marks the first time in at least 25 years that baseball's No. 1 prospect has been traded, based on the rankings done by MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.

If that was not enough, Hahn stunned the winter meetings by trading OF Adam Eaton to the Nationals for their three best prospects, including the #1 pitching prospect in the game.

Eaton, 28, is under contract for the next 5 years. He had a freak 6.0 WAR last season after moving from CF to RF. He had been one of the most productive outfielders in the Majors during the past three years even though he has flown a bit under the radar. Since 2014, he has accumulated a 12.7 WAR according to FanGraphs, which ranks 10th among all Major League outfielders. The locals who watched Eaton play on a daily basis were underwhelmed by his play, especially in CF. But the Nationals are going to play him in center so to move their best prospect, Trea Turner, to shortstop. Some believe that Eaton will wind up in RF in Washington because their home park has a large CF area that Eaton cannot cover. Bryce Harper, who is looking for a $400 million extension, could move to center. The Nationals clearly believe that their championship window is closing so they had to make a deal for an affordable, multiple tool center fielder.

In order to acquire Eaton, the Nationals traded Lucas Giolito (#1 prospect), Reynaldo Lopez (#2 prospect) and  and Dane Dunning (#6 prospect, last year's first round pick). The three right-handed pitchers are very young, but Gilolito and Lopez have tasted limited major league action. Lopez was stellar in some of his starts with a plus fastball and killer curve.  Giolito is baseball's number 3 overall and Lopez comes in at No. 38, but some scouts believe Lopez may have more upside.

So in a matter of 24 hours, the White Sox have turned their bottom quarter farm system into a Top 5 organization. The minors are now loaded with Top 100 prospects: 1., Moncada, 3.Giolito, 30 Kopech, 38 Lopez, 58 Carson Fulmer, 80 Zack Collins. The Top 10 Sox prospects are now 1 Moncada, 2, Giolito, 3 Kopech, 4 Lopez, 5. Fulmer, 6. Collins, 7 Spencer Adams, 8 Zack Burdi, 9 Luis Basabe, and 10 Dunning. Six of the Top Ten White Sox prospects have arrived in the past 24 hours.

The crazy thing is that the White Sox had good quality pitching prospects before the two deals. On the prospect list are pitchers Alec Hansen (14), LHP Jordan Guerreo (16), Jordan Stephens (17), Tyler Danish (21), LHP Brian Clark (22), and Chris Beck (24). No wonder no one blinks at the prospect that Hahn could pull the trigger and trade SP Jose Quintana to reap the same type of return as Chris Sale.

It is true that most prospects to not pan out to be impact major league players. But the Sox now have so much pitching depth that it is more probable than not that in the near future they will field a home grown, dominating starting rotation which would be the envy of the league.

FOR SALE USED PARTS

After losing 3 of four to the Royals, the White Sox was 13 games behind dead last in the AL central. Some one will have to pull the life support cord on this season. Whether GM Rick Hahn has the authority to do so is another question.

In all likelihood, Jeff Samardzija will be moved. The best-case scenario for the White Sox is that clubs who are looking for starting pitching, primarily in the National League where Samardzija has been a good fit, start upping the ante by bidding against each other.

But Samardzija doesn’t figure to be the only regular the White Sox can use to make deals. Jose Quintana, Alexei Ramirez, Adam LaRoche, Zach Duke and Adam Eaton all figure to find themselves mentioned in rumors over the next 12 days.

The Cardinals lost their first baseman. It has a talented farm system, so a team like that would be a fit for LaRoche.

Any team looking at Cole Hamels and his $84 million contract burden would see more value in Quintana to shore up their rotation.

Teams looking for a lead off hitter could see Eaton as an upgrade or defensive bench player for the long September grind.

Teams are constantly trying to upgrade worn down bullpens, so Duke could have an easy landing spot elsewhere.

Pundits claim it will be a Seller's market (more teams looking to buy parts than sell assets). If the White Sox want to move players, it is better to do it sooner than later.

CAUGHT IN BETWEEN

The expectations were high for the 2015 White Sox, ten years removed from a World Series title. GM Rick Hahn plugged all the holes in the 2014 roster. The team won the off-season.

But the regular season has been an irregular disaster.

The White Sox could dismantle the team by the trade deadline, but Sr. VP Kenny Williams has been telling the media that is not an option. The team is on a three year window and plan, which to some seems contradictory. Williams told the USA Today:

“It’s important that we not lose sight of what our organization goal was, and that was to give us the best three-year window. And we’re not going to abandon that completely with only three months to play,” Williams said.  “I think [Rick Hahn’s] done one hell of a job. Everyone wants to put the blame on [manager] Robin [Ventura], too, but all he can do is put the players in position to succeed. They’re the ones who have to look in the mirror and execute. If we do anything, it will be consistent with trying to maximize this three-year plan or window that we set out originally.”

“We’ve always had that mind-set that we will listen to anyone who wants to make an offer for our players,” Williams said in response to a question about Chris Sale.  “How else do you know what the value is? Something may bowl you over. But we can’t envision anything happening along those lines.”

While Sale is locked up on a team-friendly deal that could run through the 2019 season, Jeff Samardzija is a different story, as he’s set to hit free agency this winter.  Bob Nightengale mentions that “every club with an urgent pitching need” has expressed an interest in Samardzija, and that the Blue Jays in particular have “strongly pursued” the righty.

If Samardzija signed an extension to remain on the south side, that would obviously change things. But Samardzija has said in the past he has wanted to hit the free agent market to prove his worth to all bidders. This is probably his one big pay day and he knows it. And the White Sox do too.

 “We just have to get some sort of indication it’s possible or not to sign him. We have to also see if it’s realistic given our resources and the other obligations we have,” Williams said.

It is hard to say what has gone wrong for the White Sox since just about everything has been inconsistent to bad (fielding, base running, hitting, crucial pitching, scoring, managerial moves, etc.) It would be easy to trade away the new pieces, but then the White Sox would be back to a total rebuild when the franchise likes merely to "re-tool" the roster since that is what the fan base wants, a competitive team. 

It is not that the White Sox have to add anything to the current roster. It just needs to have the current players actually perform as expected. But since the Sox are double digits behind the Royals, it is doubtful that a major second half improvement is going to change the Sox fortunes.

A FLAW IN THE PLAN

When Theo Epstein was hired to be the Cub baseball operations guru, he said he had a plan to make the Cubs a consistent contender. Part of that plan was to blow up the organization by rebuilding the farm system so every season new talent could be promoted to the Cubs roster.

As part of the plan, the Cubs tanked for three seasons in a row. The teams were dreadful and unbearable to watch. But the pain of losing seasons allowed the Cubs to draft higher to collect a couple potentially great hitters. The Cubs stayed away from the big deal free agent market until this year when Jon Lester was signed for $155 million.

The Cubs front office has spoken about having a "core" group of players who will be together for a long time. However, after the St. Louis series, ESPN's Buster Olney thinks he found a flaw in the Cubs rebuilding plans.


After being swept over the weekend by the St. Louis Cardinals, the Cubs had lost five in a row while starting pitchers gave up 17 runs in 23.1 innings during that stretch. And when one looks at the farm system for help, there is nothing to be found.

Olney believes the Cubs don't have enough starting pitching, and finding some will be tough to do in the trade market.

Olney notes that there may not be many starting pitchers available and those who may end up on the market come with red flags for the Cubs, whether it is a divisional rival (e.g. the Reds) or a player who has spurned the Cubs before (e.g. Jeff Samardzija).

The bigger problem for the Cubs is that they can't turn to their minor league system for help, and that lack of depth in starting pitching was by design as the Cubs focused in on hitters while other teams balanced with top pitchers and position players. Of the Cubs' top eight prospects, only one is a pitcher.

Olney believes most MLB teams have subscribed to the theory that pitching wins championships and there are two ways to acquire pitching talent. Teams can either overspend on aging arms and hope they can stay healthy and effective, or teams can hoard a ton of young pitching prospects and hope a few of them pan out and become talented big leaguers who don't take up a lot of payroll space. The New York Mets are a prime example of developing four or five really good young starters that are controllable assets for the next five years. The Cubs have yet to draft and develop a quality starting pitcher.  And that is the flaw in the rebuilding plan.

WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT

Even with a daily dose of Deadspin commentary and a few photographs, the callers on local sports talk radio on the evening commute made it clear that the situation at Wrigley on Opening Night was worse than previously reported.

The Cubs continue to sugar coat the situation as being opening night jitters, construction delays and that it will have fixed for tonight's game with portable toilets.

And the city officials have been silent on the issues that plagued the fans.

As more than one caller said it was a health and safety hazard. The concourse was packed for the entire night with people not moving, a crushing situation. The lines backed up into the stands, causing many sections to be blocked from viewing the game. The men's restroom floor was a soaked with standing urine. People began urinating in cups and discharging themselves on the walls in the concourse. Wrigley was a crowded and open sewer.  If you were any other Chicago business, you would have been red tagged, closed down, and not allowed to open for business.

As other callers stated, this is more evidence of the incompetence of Cubs management. Half of the restrooms were going to be out of commission before the season opened so management should have known there would be an issue for 35,000 fans (the Cubs knew the attendance in advance of opening the gates.) When the upper deck restrooms failed, the Cubs did nothing except adding to the confusion by directing patrons down the jammed and stopped ramps to the lower level two functioning restrooms. It was so bad, callers indicated that they stood in line for one to one and half HOURS. Many of them just quit and left the park to use facilities of neighboring businesses.

The Cubs said that once the bleachers are finished, the restroom capacity will be expanded under the left field area. But that is no comfort for a couple of callers who said they were very concerned about bringing their young children to tonight's game. No one knows whether the Cubs had a top to bottom Hazmat cleaning of the concourses and restrooms. Parents are concerned for the safety and welfare of bringing their children to Wrigley Field. There is no public relations spin today that can change that objective parental concern. Considering the Cubs fan price index puts the cost for a family of four to see a game at more than $300 (third in the MLB in cost), it is probably not worth subjecting children to sardine concourses, urine soaked restrooms and people peeing on stadium walls.

The Cubs also stated that they don't think it will be a problem tonight because they expect less people. But that is not the point. Even if they put in portable toilets inside Wrigley (which are actually made to be outside for ventilation purposes), the damage has been done. The team touted the improvements as enhancing "the fan experience." It was a total fail in the national spotlight.

Neither Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, Crane Kenney or Tom Ricketts have stepped up to the podium and admitted this failure of epic proportions. This shows the problem in how the Cubs are organized: Epstein is in charge of the baseball team while Kenney is in charge of the business side. But the business of the Cubs is baseball which includes ticket sales, concessions and fan service. In essence, no one is in charge of this mess. The idea to focus the night on how great the Jumbotron looked while looking away as their customers waded their way through urine soaked concourses is going to negatively affect any future fan goodwill.

A BRAVE NEW WORLD

The biggest story of Opening Night was along the scroll bar.

The Padres made another blockbuster move.

New Friar general manager A.J. Preller acquired closer Craig Kimbrel, and OF  Melvin Upton from the fire sale Braves.

The Braves acquired veteran outfielders Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin,  pitching prospect Matt Wisler, outfielder Jordan Paroubeck and the 41st pick in the upcoming draft.
 

YahooSports reports that with Kimbrel, the Padres acquire arguably the most dominant reliever in the game over the past five seasons. The 26-year-old is coming off a season in which he posted a 1.61 ERA over 61 2/3 innings. He saved 47 games and struck out 97 batters. Kimbrel is under contract for at least the next three seasons. He's guaranteed $33 million over that period. Kimbrel also has a $13 million club option for 2018.

For Preller and the Padres, the move doubles-down on the all-in philosophy of the offseason. Kimbrel should combine with Joaquin Benoit, Kevin Quackenbush and Shawn Kelly to wreck havoc on opposing hitters in the late innings. 

The 30-year-old Upton has not performed well in Atlanta, and the move is perceived as a salary dump for the Braves. Upton hit just .208/287/.333 last season, and is still owed $46.35 million over the next three seasons. He'll likely be a fourth outfielder with San Diego.

On the Braves side, both Quentin and Maybin should provide outfield depth. Quentin isn't regarded as highly for his defense, and had been used at first base during camp. Freddie Freeman is firmly entrenched in that spot, so it appears as if Quentin will continue to play the outfield. It is possible that Quentin may be DFA'd.

Wisler, 22, rated as the top prospect in San Diego's system, according to Baseball America. His stats in the minors have been strong up until he was promoted to Triple-A last season. He considered relatively close to major-league ready, and profiles as a No. 3 starter, according to BA. 

Paroubeck was considered a minor-league sleeper to watch by Baseball America, but did not rank among the Padres' top-30 prospects. After being selected in the second round of the 2013 draft, Paraoubeck hit .286/.346/.457 over 157 plate appearances in rookie ball. He's just 20, and remains a few seasons away from the majors.

The Padres have been the most aggressive team this off season. Last year, Oakland's Billy Beane sold the future for a run at the present, and lost that bet. It should be an interesting year in the NL West.

CONTINGENCY PLAN?

The Cubs will announce soon "contingency" plans if the bleachers are not completed by
Opening Night.

I thought, maybe that contingency plan is to move the games to the Cell.

Because, based upon the construction photographs I have seen, the brick outfield walls
are not structurally sound - - - meaning an outfielder racing to catch a deep fly ball
may actually bend, break or tumble through the bricks like an old Charlie Chaplin movie.

And since the brick and ivy is THE most important landmark feature at the park,
why risk it? Perhaps the Ricketts do not believe any damage to the brick facade will
do any more damage to their own reputations as gravediggers, oh, caretakers, of Wrigley Field.

And what city inspector is going to approve games in an active "construction site?"

Construction safety standards require fencing and hard hat areas to be secure from
the general public, which during games would include the players on the field.
It has all the foresight of the failed Northwestern football game at Wrigley, where the
conference and officials on game day said the field was unsafe to play because the end zones
were too small (and players could get hurt running into the brick walls).

With the harsh aspects of Winter in Chicago bearing outdoor construction to a crawl, it is really doubtful that the debut of the "new" Wrigley on national television is going to be the glittering success that the Cubs PR department had hoped for. . . and as I had said before, and now confirmed by a few die hard baseball fans who visited the site during the holiday season, that the gut fan reaction is going to be negative.

A SURPRISE MOVE

The Cubs went against conventional wisdom and signed the best free agent on the market. The Cubs clearly overpaid for Jon Lester, and made a move prior to the team is ready to win the division. Lester takes the role of Jeff Samardzija, the opening day starter (and possibly the pitcher with the least run support).

By many reports, the Red Sox botched their dealings with Lester. First, the team insulted him last year with a weak $70 million/3 year extension offer. Second, the team traded Lester to Oakland, but told the press that the team wanted Lester back. You don't trade away somebody you really want. Third, the Red Sox final offer was $20 million short of the Cubs (also meaning that the Cubs overpaid the market for Lester).

The Giants GM said he was not given a chance to give his best or final offer. This means that Lester preferred to not be on the West Coast (he lives in Atlanta). But in the end, respect equals money and the Cubs flashed the most green. This sudden spending spree may be a public relations reaction to what the White Sox had accomplished in the off-season: adding players like Samardzija, LaRouche, Robertson, Duke. It would be hard to sell tickets if the White Sox are charging to the top of the AL Central.

The $15 million vesting option for Year 7 of the deal should be no problem if the Cubs in 2020 get their golden Cub channel television deal (like the Dodgers). But since the Cubs still don't even have a local TV in place, the dramatic change in cable and entertainment distribution and the Dodgers disaster of unable to sell their channel to distributors, the Cubs are banking on money the team may never get.

Lester will receive six years and $155 million, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reports.  The contract will make Lester one of baseball’s richest pitchers, with an average annual value of $25.8 million, that ranks just ahead of Detroit Tiger Justin Verlander's  $25.7 million/year but behind only Clayton Kershaw's  $30.7 million.

Despite what Cubs management says, the team is still not close to winning a pennant.

Lester will lead a staff of starters that breaks down as follows:
1. LHP Lester
2. RHP Hammel
3. RHP Arrieta
4. RHP Hendrick
5. LHP Wada

The two pitchers immediately out of the rotation are Travis Wood and Edwin Jackson. Jackson has a bad contract, but there has been some reported interest in other teams, like Atlanta, who would swap bad deals. A Brave deal Jackson for B.J. Upton has the potential to upgrade LF over a Coghlan/Ruggiano platoon if Upton's two year funk can be corrected. Wood's 2014 slide is of some concern, which is why Wada was re-signed for 2015.

Lester pitched for Boston and Oakland last year, compiling a 16-11 record, 2.46 ERA, 1.102 WHIP and 4.6 WAR. In his 9 seasons, Lester is 116-67, 3.58 ERA, 32.6 WAR.

From a valuation standpoint, Lester's current WAR equates to $23 million/ year. If one projects out Lester, who will be 31, over the 6 seasons with a 10 percent decline in effectiveness, it is expected that he will contribute another 21.52 WAR, which would put the contract value of the deal at $107.6 million. Therefore, the Cubs paid a 44 percent premium over the expected value of Lester in the next 6 years.

In order for the Lester deal to work out, the Cubs need to score more runs. A lot more runs. This will push the team to promote Kris Bryant earlier than expected, which should appease the fans.

2016 PITCHER MARKET

The Cubs real look at solid starting pitching is best viewed in the reality that if the prospects pan out in 2015, then the Cubs will look to shore up the rotation in 2016.

MLBTR lists the current 2016 FA class:

Starting Pitchers
Clay Buchholz (31) – $13MM club option with a $245K buyout
Mark Buehrle (37)
Trevor Cahill (28) – $13MM club option with a $300K buyout
Jhoulys Chacin (28)
Bartolo Colon (43)
Ross Detwiler (30)
R.A. Dickey (41) – $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Marco Estrada (32)
Doug Fister (32)
Jaime Garcia (29) – $11.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Jeremy Guthrie (37) – $10MM mutual option with a $3.2MM buyout
Tim Hudson (40)
Scott Kazmir (32)
Ian Kennedy (31)
Mat Latos (28)
Mike Leake (28)
Tim Lincecum (32)
Kyle Lohse (37)
Corey Luebke (31) – $7.5MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout
Kris Medlen (30)
Bud Norris (31)
Ross Ohlendorf (33)
Mike Pelfrey (32)
Rick Porcello (27)
David Price (30)
Ricky Romero (31) – $13.1MM club option with a $600K buyout
Jeff Samardzija (31)
Alfredo Simon (35)
Jordan Zimmermann (30)

There is clearly more good quantity in this list than in the 2015 free agent class.

Price, Zimmerman, Latos, and Fister are top tier candidates.
Samardzija, Kennedy, Leake, Lincecum, Porcello, Buchholz and Kazmir are second tier candidates that would probably interest the Cubs more than the top liners (in terms of long term investment).
Short term flyers would inlcude Chacin, Detwiler, Medlin and Pelfrey.

If the Cubs are going to spend, this is the market more suitable for their financial restrictions.

THE DRUM BEAT

The constant drum beat of upbeat Cubs euphoria is getting on some people's nerves. The cheerleading about the great Cubs turnaround for 2015 is loud, clear and ridiculous.  The bandwagon drivers are spouting off that the Cubs great farm system is going to produce great All Star caliber players right out of the gate because Epstein and Hoyer are boy geniuses who had a plan, and made it work.

The reality check is that the Cubs are following the path of the weakest sister. By putting all one's eggs in the minor league system, and needing home grown talent to be scouted, evaluated, drafted, signed, and most critically, developed, is not an easy task. The Royals have had a good farm system for a long time. But despite those awards, it took the Royals 29 years to get to the post season.

But desperate Cub fans are literally dying for the post season after watching the last terrible four years. There has been some progress in the win column, but the team still finished last in the NL Central. And there has been no commitment that the Cubs are going to veer off this minor league only rebuilding plan by splashing into the deep end of the free agent pool.

With the new tender amount at $15.3 million, even second tier free agents are going to be too expensive in a "small market" rebuild program.

The delusion is even more apparent when the bandwagon claims that the Cubs have Cy Youngsters in Arrieta and Hendricks to take the team to the next level. Arrieta was a touted Orioles prospect who has more bad innings in his career than good ones. Hendricks has not had a full season in the majors, and he has yet to adjust to the league that will learn his pitching technique. Even the solid bullpen may have had concurrent career years - - - Rondon could be the next Riveria or the Next Marmol.

There just is not enough evidence to say that the new Cubs are going to be good next year or the year after.  There is more evidence that the big bat prospects have fundamental problems at the plate (an alarming strike out rate). A line up composed mainly of .210 hitters is going to lose 100 games.

Besides the fundamental baseball issues, 2015 cheerleaders have not factored in the probability of injuries. Soler has had an injury every year of his professional career. Hendricks has not pitched a full major league season. Baez has a high torque swing which could lead to back problems. Rizzo has had a bad back at the end of the season. Castro has dinged himself. Castillo has had a heavy workload behind the plate and has had injuries. The Cubs are not deep at any position to sustain a run to be competitive in 2015.

The higher expectations is to draw fans back into the Cubs world - - - i.e., to sell tickets. The expensive Wrigley renovations need cash flow. By marketing to potential season ticket holders "the wait is over" will bring in a few fence sitters. But not enough to make Ricketts borrow money to build the New Wrigley or spend a hundred million dollars on a free agent pitcher.

When the cheerleaders tout the rebuilding plan as a success, they still condition it on the fact that the team needs to fill in the gaps with free agents. Free agents to fill LF, CF and two starting spots. Possibly wanting to upgrade at catcher. Suddenly, you start adding up the "gaps" and you objectively see you still have half the starting positions that are not being adequately filled from within. This is classic double talk. When Ricketts bought the team, he announced it was only one or two players away from a championship. How wrong he was. But it the same story we are hearing now: one or two or three free agents away from a divisional title.

But any free agent will think twice about the Cubs. Recent history shows that quality free agent stars would rather take the money and sign with a real contender (Dodgers, Yankees, Tigers, Rangers, Angels) than a last place rebuilding club like the Cubs. Quality free agents are at the peak of their careers, and want to add to their legacy by getting into the postseason now. If the money is the same, who honestly believes Jon Lester is going to sign with the Cubs over the Yankees? Or the Dodgers? Or the Angels? Big market teams that can spend for talent are a bigger drawing card to a free agent than small market  who are counting on prospects to win now.

The real expectation for the 2015 Cubs is around 72 wins. And that should not move the fan-o-meter very far toward being "all in" next year.

28

CHICAGO (AP) -- The mob arrived as soon as Salvador Perez squeezed that final foul popup, officially bringing Kansas City's playoff drought to an end.

Yes, the Royals are going back to the postseason.

Kansas City clinched a playoff spot Friday night for the first time in 29 years, beating the Chicago White Sox  3-1 behind seven scoreless innings from Jeremy Guthrie.

Kansas City secured at least a wild card and ended the longest active postseason drought among the major North American sports leagues. The last time the Royals made it to the playoffs, George Brett led Kansas City to a World Series victory over St. Louis in 1985.

''It feels better than expected,'' said Billy Butler, a 2004 draft pick and eight-year veteran. ''It's a great thing. I'm proud to bring this organization something they envisioned when they drafted me.''

>>>>  It took the Royals 28 years to get back to the post season, even though:

A. They continually drafted high each year in the amateur drafts.

B. They had a consistently good farm system of prospects.

C. They promoted their valued home grown prospects on a regular basis.

As a small market team, the Royals did not have the financial standing to compete on the major free agent market. Therefore, the team had to rely on its scouting and development departments in order to build a winning organization. This is the classic small market approach.

Which is exactly the approach the Cubs have been using the past four years. The emphasis on home grown talent (which is cheaper and under 6 years of cost control) is a noble quest, but it does not mean instant or continuous success. The Royals are the perfect example; it took almost three decades to achieve the minimum goal of each spring training - - - to make the playoffs. 

So when the Cub media cheerleaders are jumping up and down this winter, saying that the Cubs are going to be in the wild card hunt, don't believe them. Remember the Royals journey to success. 

  

THE TIME LINE IS NOT HERE

Cubs president Theo Epstein told reporters that the team will have the financial wherewithal to add to the payroll in the coming years due to its young core of prospects playing at the major league level. The core prospects are on team friendly deals, several years away from arbitration or free agency.  Epstein said he never looks at one off-season and decides that he has to get something done that year, but he expects to add impact starting pitching from outside the organization in the next 18 to 24 months.

The latter part of the story is the key element. As media columnists and radio pundits "expect" that the core will ramp it up next year in collective production, they also "expect" the Cubs to pull the trigger and go out and sign two "impact" players, like a Jon Lester (who may cost $140 million or more). But Epstein is foreshadowing the opposite.

He is not going to commit to spending money this off-season. Eighteen months brings the Cubs to the trade deadline in 2016. And the outer limit is spring of 2017. But these goal posts can continue to move, farther away to 2020 (when the old local media deals expire).

So Epstein is quietly signaling that the front office is not convinced (rightly so) that the core will actually perform at a high enough level in the next two years to "justify" spending hundreds of millions of dollars on quality, proven starting pitchers.

 The Cubs rebuilding program has this built in Catch-22. The team does want to grow cheap, controllable players through their minor league system. In order to draft the best talent, the major league team needs to lose. Losing does not help sign talent in the free agent market. Once the prospects arrive at Wrigley, there is no guarantee if any or all will become impact major leaguers. If the team's new core does not pan out, then there is no reason for Ricketts to approve spending millions for pitching for a bad club.

Besides, the concept that the "business side" needs to catch up with the "baseball side" is another built-in diversion in case the Cubs rebuilding program falters. Epstein claims there is plenty of money in the future, but any idea that the payroll savings are being banked in the past three years is an illusion. Ricketts has a highly expensive real estate project to build in and around Wrigley. That is the business side priority, not the baseball team. The hundreds of millions to be spent on pitching more likely will be spent on brick and mortar projects.

HOW THINGS PLAY OUT

The excitement continues to swell like an Off-Broadway production in dress rehearsal as Jorge Soler is promoted to the major league roster.

The Cubs Way is nearly ready to debut.

There are many ways to look at the new way.

First, in the best light, the prospects and young players the Cubs have acquired will play beyond expectations like the championship caliber teams like the Marlins or Rays. Those clubs came out of small market nowhere and won pennants. But even those teams could not sustain themselves purely on their own home grown talent (since most left prior to free agency).

Second, the prospects and young players give us a reasonable expectation of being good, but not great, ball players. Over time, they may gel into the 2005 White Sox, and push through to a championship.

Third, the prospects and young players have statistically average careers. The team can hover around .500 if its pitching holds up. This is like the Kansas City Royals, who are just getting out of another 15 year rebuild cycle. They had touted prospects that got to the majors and did not excel to a juggernaut line up like the big market, big spending teams like the Red Sox or Yankees.

Fourth, the prospects and young players mostly play below average. They follow the cursed string of recent prospects like Brett Jackson, Josh Vitter, Junior Lake. For all the hype, the team as constructed only ebbs and flows around 75 wins per season.

Fifth, the prospects and young players don't pan out long term, due to inability to adapt or being plagued by injury. The total fail scenario is something that no one wants to talk about - - - especially ownership and the front office. If this happens, the risk-reward bet will probably crater the franchise in a huge hole.

It is highly unlikely that the Cubs will hit on all their prospects. It is likely that one or two will be very good players if healthy. But a team needs a balance between veterans and young players, skill and luck, and ways to avoid a culture of losing. Final success will only be objectively measured by the number of wins, number of pennants, and number of championships.

ASSUMPTIONS

A recent Grantland piece attempted to counter long time worn baseball expressions like "pitching wins World Series," "you cannot have enough pitching," and "good pitching beats good hitting."

The author takes the view that the Cubs, by rebuilding their farm system with dynamic hitters instead of golden arm pitchers, are doing the right thing. The article fails to make the post-season point that "pitching and defense" wins championships.

Current case in point is the Kansas City Royals. In their current decade long rebuilding process, they have stumbled into first place in the AL Central not by hitting, but by the best outfield defense in the majors and solid pitching from starters and the pen. The Tigers have a powerful hitting line up, but fell out of first place when their starting pitchers began to get hurt.

Also, with the rash of TJ injuries early in the season, many teams were scrambling to find pitchers. Teams with pitching prospects kept them instead of using them as trade bait. The Cubs were able to get two premium prospects from the A's for two proven starters.

The article assumes that a great hitting team will take down an army of pitchers during the season and better quality staff in the playoffs.  But the numbers show that even the best hitters today only get a hit every 3 out of 10 at bats. Home run hitters ring up a dinger maybe once in every 16 plate appearances.

To assume the Cubs are doing their rebuild "the right way" because it is different begs the question: if it is right, why are the other teams doing the opposite?

For every Clayton Kershaw, there are 40 Edwin Jacksons. There are only 4 aces in a deck of cards (7.7 percent) which is good analogy because even if every club has its "ace" Number One starter,  that is 20 percent; but in reality, the bottom teams don't have the same type of dominate pitchers so overall it is really around 10 percent of starters are aces.

It is not to say that the Cubs were wrong in obtaining as many bats as they could. The team has been an offensive offense for years. Taking the best college hitter in Kris Bryant is what I suggested before the draft. Taking Kyle Schwarber was a reach for a catching prospect, but he was another top college hitter. But one must realize that in the first two drafts, Epstein and Hoyer took mostly pitchers - - - and none of them have panned out so far.

NEXT YEAR

Wait until Next Year.

The wait has been a long, long time.

The wait may almost be over, some say.

Some say, that the Cubs pipeline of prospects will be this century's gold rush.

Some say, that the Cubs  are only a few pitchers away from being truly competitive.

Some say, that is what the team says every year.

No one truly knows what the time line for the Plan is, but we can make an educated guess on what the front office and the fans would like to see in 2015:

An infield of the "core" players:

3B: Bryant
SS: Castro
2B: Baez
1B: Rizzo
C: Castillo

An outfield infused with new young players:

CF: Alcantara
RF: Soler

More likely, Bryant will wind up in LF, Baez at 3B, and Alcantara at 2B. That will still leave hole in CF which Almora is supposed to fill by 2017. Or, by 2016, Baez stays at second, with Russell playing third with Alcantara still in CF.

It seems the starting rotation is not going to land an "ace" free agent due to the prohibitive cost and years in such a deal. The plan has been to cut down the payroll, not spend like a drunken sailor.

The rotation seems to be falling into this shape for 2015:

1. Arrieta
2. Hendricks
3. T. Wood
4. E. Jackson
5. Doubront or J. Turner (with the other becoming a long reliever/spot starter).

It is not an overpowering rotation. However, collectively it is fairly cheap.

So despite all the expected roster churn, the 2015 Cubs don't seem to be that much different than the current 2014 club.

ID THE CORE

Here is the Cubs current roster:

ROTATION:

RHP Jake Arrieta

RHP Edwin Jackson

LHP Travis Wood

RHP Kyle Hendricks

LHP Tsuyoshi Wada

BULLPEN:

RHP Hector Rondon (closer)

LHP Wesley Wright

RHP Justin Grimm

RHP Brian Schlitter

RHP Carlos Villanueva

RHP Pedro Strop

LHP Chris Rusin

CATCHERS:

John Baker

Welington Castillo

INFIELDERS:

1B Anthony Rizzo

2B Arismendy Alcantara

SS Starlin Castro

3B Luis Valbuena

INF Chris Valaika
INF Javy Baez
OUTFIELDERS:
LF Chris Coghlan

CF Junior Lake

OF Ryan Sweeney

OF Justin Ruggiano

Objectively, which players will be part of the team during transition to competitve team and which players are CORE starters?

ROTATION: Arrieta, Jackson and Wood are going to be around for the next few years, but by the time the Cubs are competitive (maybe in 2018), they may not be still on the roster. Wada is a transition veteran pitcher. Perhaps Hendricks may be considered as a core rotation guy but he still needs to learn a steady out pitch since he does not have a dominate fast ball.

BULLPEN: Villaneuva, Schlitter, and Rusin are all AAAA guys holding a spot on a bad team. Strop and Grimm were acquired by the front office, but are replaceable as well as Wright. Maybe one could stay on as a bullpen specialist for the next few years. Rondon is being groomed as a closer so he appears to be potential core player.

CATCHER: Castillo is the core catcher by default since the Cubs organization had no catching depth until the draft. The Cubs paid a ton for Brave prospect Caratini so he may be the core catcher of the future.

INFIELDERS: The Cubs have used a vast collection of bench utility players to man the infield. Castro and Rizzo have been deemed core players for the future, however more and more Castro trade rumors will circle the press this off season. Alcantara started off fast but is returning to Earth, batting .255. He may be a transition player until Addison Russell and Javy Baez both hit the majors, for whom the front office has identified as core players.  Baez has arrived like the team savior, which is overhyped expectation. Valbuena and Valaika may be supersubs on a competitive team, likely not the Cubs down the road.

OUTFIELDERS: Not one outfielder listed is considered a core player.

So maybe, at best, there are 5 "core" players on the Cubs 25 man major league roster (20%).

This shows that there still is a long way to go in the competitive rebuilding process.