This post was written prior to the Cubs trade.
Many believe that Theo Epstein "loves" his prospects to the point where he cannot part with them. It is a common problem some general managers have in drafting and developing players. Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry was famous for hanging on to his prospects to the point where they had no trade value (or were poor major league players). In a trade market, you try to exchange gold for silver; veterans for quality prospects.
So when Theo took over the Cubs, he had no loyalty to Hendry-era players. Here are some notable players from the Hendry days:
Notable Drafted players:
2003 – Jake Fox, Sean Marshall, Casey Mcgehee, Sam Fuld (unsigned)
2004 – Fuld, Sean Gallagher
2006 – Tyler Colvin, Jeff Samardjiza, Steve Clevenger
2007 – Josh Donaldson, Darwin Barney, Brandon Guyer, Josh Vitters
2008 – Andrew Cashner, Ryan Flaherty, Josh Harrison, Jeff Beliveau, and an unsigned Sonny Gray
2009 – Brett Jackson, DJ LeMahieu, Chris Rusin, Wes Darvill, Brooks Raley, Justin Bour, Trey McNutt, and an unsigned Colin Kaepernick (SF QB)
2010 – Matt Szczur, Erick Jokisch, Elliot Soto, Dustin Geiger, Dallas Beeler
2011 – Javy Baez, Dan Vogelbach, Tayler Scott, Shawon Dunston, Jr., Daniel Lockhart, Trey Martin, Dillon Maples, John Andreoli, James Pugliese, Andrew McKirahan, Michael Jensen, PJ Francescon.
Notable International signings:
2010_ OF Rubi Silva (Cuba), SS Carlos Penalver (Venezuela), 3B Jeimer Candelario (Dominican Republic), OF Jeffrey Baez, C Alberto Mineo
(Italy), RHP Daury Torrez (Dominican Republic)
2009- C Willson Contreras (Venezuela), Pin-Chieh Chen (Taiwan), RHP Felix Pena
2008 – INF Hak-Ju Lee (South Korea), RHP, INF Arismendy Alcantara (Dominican Republic), Frank Batista RHP, Dominican Republic
2007 – OF Kosuke Fukudome (Japan), IF Junior Lake (Dominican Republic)
2006 – SS Starlin Castro (Dominican Republic)
2005 – RHP Alberto Cabrera (Dominican Republic)
2004 – RHP Rafael Dolis (Dominican Republic), C Welington Castillo (Dominican Republic).
As you can tell, many of the Hendry signings did make it to the major leagues. Several have been used by Theo as trade chips to acquire other players. In 4.5 years, Theo has turned over most the organizational roster.
So if you are trying to predict which current Cubs prospects or players could be used in a trade deadline trade, look at who is left in the Cubs organization from the Hendry era:
Contreras #2 prospect, Candelario #8 prospect, and Vogelbach #20 prospect.
Contreras and Candelario have both played with the Cubs major league team this season. Vogelbach has gotten some of his power back in AAA Iowa.
Since the Cubs will not trade Kyle Schwarber, who some project to be worth more than 21 WAR in his rookie control period, for a relief pitcher, that means it is really down to Candelario and Vogelbach to make a trade. For a top line reliever like Andrew Miller, this probably will not get it done. For a rental player like A. Chapman, maybe, but there will be other suitors.
Addendum:
The Cubs acquired left handed swingman Mike Montgomery and minor leaguer Jordan Pries from Seattle in exchange for 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach and minor league starter Paul Blackburn. With Montgomery, the Cubs get a power pitcher from the left side that holds lefties to a .146 BA. He also has the ability to spot start.
Like discussed above, the Cubs parted with Vogelbach, a player who would blocked by Rizzo and Schwarber on the major league roster. Vogelbach was rumored to have been in the Yankee discussions for Andrew Miller, but the Yanks wanted Schwarber.
Of note, Theo and Hoyer did part with one of their "guys," a 2012 draft pick in Blackburn. Blackburn, 22, is 6-4 in AA with a 3.17 ERA. In Pries, the Cubs get a 26 year old AAA reliever who was promoted from AA as a marginal starter.
July 21, 2016
July 19, 2016
GREAT MOVES
Dave Dombrowski has always been regarded as a good GM.
But in a few days, he has baffled the baseball world.
He acquired All-Star starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz from the Padres in exchange for an 18-year-old pitching prospect. Straight up.
Then he acquired Diamondbacks closer Zeigler, who owns the team record of 43 consecutive saves, for two low level prospects.
So, the Red Sox acquired an All-Star starter and proven closer for basically nothing.
Wow.
Other GMs question how Dombrowski got away with such a haul for nothing. But then again, he got the deal done with suspect GM Dave Stewart in Arizona (remember, he overpaid for Shelby Miller who is now in AAA), and a friendship with President Tony LaRussa, and then dealt the hapless, rutterless Padres.
A few teams grumbled that they offered more for Zeigler than what the Red Sox gave up . . . .
But would not the Cubs or Cardinals or any other team have taken both Pomeranz and Zeigler for three Class A prospects?!!
Of course they would.
But for some reason, only Dombrowski got the deals done.
Quickly. Early. Cheaply.
There have been many writers now thinking that Theo may be too enamored with his own prospects
to trade them for bullpen help. If prospects are the true assets in today's trade market, you have
to part with value in order to get back value.
Except if you are Dombrowski.
He acquired All-Star starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz from the Padres in exchange for an 18-year-old pitching prospect. Straight up.
Then he acquired Diamondbacks closer Zeigler, who owns the team record of 43 consecutive saves, for two low level prospects.
So, the Red Sox acquired an All-Star starter and proven closer for basically nothing.
Wow.
Other GMs question how Dombrowski got away with such a haul for nothing. But then again, he got the deal done with suspect GM Dave Stewart in Arizona (remember, he overpaid for Shelby Miller who is now in AAA), and a friendship with President Tony LaRussa, and then dealt the hapless, rutterless Padres.
A few teams grumbled that they offered more for Zeigler than what the Red Sox gave up . . . .
But would not the Cubs or Cardinals or any other team have taken both Pomeranz and Zeigler for three Class A prospects?!!
Of course they would.
But for some reason, only Dombrowski got the deals done.
Quickly. Early. Cheaply.
There have been many writers now thinking that Theo may be too enamored with his own prospects
to trade them for bullpen help. If prospects are the true assets in today's trade market, you have
to part with value in order to get back value.
Except if you are Dombrowski.
July 18, 2016
EXTENDING THEORIES
Hanley and Haugh were on this morning's sports talk discussing the question of Theo Epstein's contract extension which continues to be going no where.
They indicated that writer Jon Heyman speculates that since Andrew Friedman got $7 million plus bonuses from the Dodgers, Epstein is worth $10 to $12 million. If true, the question is whether any baseball executive is worth that kind of money.
Hanley and Haugh opined that since the Cubs "are printing" money with all the new construction and revenue sources inside and outside of Wrigley, making Epstein the highest paid executive is basically a no brainer.
But their premise is incorrect. The Cubs are not building the new plaza building or McDonald's block commercial spaces. Those real estate development projects are owned and controlled by different Ricketts family business entities. The Cubs are basically only a tenant in Wrigley Field (also owned by a different legal entity). The Cubs main revenue sources are ticket sales, concessions and broadcast revenues. The rest of the revenue generating business ventures goes directly to the Ricketts family.
Then, Haugh confirmed that Ricketts told him last year the most "undervalued" person in the Cubs organization was Crane Kenney. Kenney is in charge of the "business" side of the Cubs. He is the one who sets the baseball budget, not Epstein. Haugh said that Kenney recently got his contract extension from Ricketts.
Which gets back to earlier posts on this blog.
The Ricketts have used broad brush strokes of the Cubs and the team's continued success relying upon new revenue sources from outside the park real estate and business ventures. But those ventures are separate and legally distinct from the Cubs baseball team.
Epstein has said that he has had to get create and pull teeth in order to make last off-season's moves to sign Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward and John Lackey. The business side of the organization has put the brakes on what Epstein really wants to do with the Cubs. Since day one, there has been this conflict.
At least the radio hosts recognize that Epstein may be fed up with the office politics and penny pinching budgeting of Kenney so Epstein does not sign a contract extension with the Cubs.
Then what happens?
Ricketts and Kenney could still claim their leadership and business skills were part and parcel to the success of the Cubs. They are the ones who approved all the major moves Epstein made during his tenure. It seems like the Red Sox situation all over again, when Epstein was tossed aside due to upper management and ownership wanted the spotlight on them for the championships.
It comes down to these theories:
1. Epstein will only sign an extension if he gets FULL control of all Cubs operations, including business side and budget.
2. Epstein does not want to sign an extension so he can get a better deal as a "free agent," which in my mind could include an equity stake in a franchise.
3. Ricketts does not want to pay $60 million for a President of baseball operations when there are costly overruns on his dream real estate projects.
4. Ricketts and/or Kenney may believe that since the minor league foundation of success is in place, they don't need Epstein or Hoyer to lead the franchise in the future. They can find someone else to be the General Manager under their control.
5. At the last minute, both sides will come to a compromise agreement.
However, if Epstein really wants to stay, and Ricketts really wants Epstein to stay, a contract extension should have been worked out a year ago.
They indicated that writer Jon Heyman speculates that since Andrew Friedman got $7 million plus bonuses from the Dodgers, Epstein is worth $10 to $12 million. If true, the question is whether any baseball executive is worth that kind of money.
Hanley and Haugh opined that since the Cubs "are printing" money with all the new construction and revenue sources inside and outside of Wrigley, making Epstein the highest paid executive is basically a no brainer.
But their premise is incorrect. The Cubs are not building the new plaza building or McDonald's block commercial spaces. Those real estate development projects are owned and controlled by different Ricketts family business entities. The Cubs are basically only a tenant in Wrigley Field (also owned by a different legal entity). The Cubs main revenue sources are ticket sales, concessions and broadcast revenues. The rest of the revenue generating business ventures goes directly to the Ricketts family.
Then, Haugh confirmed that Ricketts told him last year the most "undervalued" person in the Cubs organization was Crane Kenney. Kenney is in charge of the "business" side of the Cubs. He is the one who sets the baseball budget, not Epstein. Haugh said that Kenney recently got his contract extension from Ricketts.
Which gets back to earlier posts on this blog.
The Ricketts have used broad brush strokes of the Cubs and the team's continued success relying upon new revenue sources from outside the park real estate and business ventures. But those ventures are separate and legally distinct from the Cubs baseball team.
Epstein has said that he has had to get create and pull teeth in order to make last off-season's moves to sign Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward and John Lackey. The business side of the organization has put the brakes on what Epstein really wants to do with the Cubs. Since day one, there has been this conflict.
At least the radio hosts recognize that Epstein may be fed up with the office politics and penny pinching budgeting of Kenney so Epstein does not sign a contract extension with the Cubs.
Then what happens?
Ricketts and Kenney could still claim their leadership and business skills were part and parcel to the success of the Cubs. They are the ones who approved all the major moves Epstein made during his tenure. It seems like the Red Sox situation all over again, when Epstein was tossed aside due to upper management and ownership wanted the spotlight on them for the championships.
It comes down to these theories:
1. Epstein will only sign an extension if he gets FULL control of all Cubs operations, including business side and budget.
2. Epstein does not want to sign an extension so he can get a better deal as a "free agent," which in my mind could include an equity stake in a franchise.
3. Ricketts does not want to pay $60 million for a President of baseball operations when there are costly overruns on his dream real estate projects.
4. Ricketts and/or Kenney may believe that since the minor league foundation of success is in place, they don't need Epstein or Hoyer to lead the franchise in the future. They can find someone else to be the General Manager under their control.
5. At the last minute, both sides will come to a compromise agreement.
However, if Epstein really wants to stay, and Ricketts really wants Epstein to stay, a contract extension should have been worked out a year ago.
July 14, 2016
PITCHING WEAKNESS
The philosophy that you draft the best bat available and buy pitching on the free market may come to haunt the Cubs in the future.
Most organizations have a balanced approach to player development: you draft both pitchers and hitters high in drafts, and develop all players in the same manner. You use trades and free agency to fill in development gaps on a major league roster. Only a few teams, like the Yankees in the past, have used free agency as the major building blocks for a major league roster.
The myth is that the Cubs's draft strategy was hitter-heavy. More than 47 percent of Theo's Cub draft choices have been pitchers. And the real problem with the Cubs farm system is that it has not developed one starting pitcher in the Theo tenure.
It is possible to draft and develop star pitching talent. Prime example is the White Sox (who have a reverse problem of being unable to draft and consistently develop position players).
The Cubs have relied on a five man rotation. Luckily, the pitchers have not gotten hurt. Adam Warren has made on spot start to give the rotation a day breather, but that did not help much.
If any starter breaks down, there is no help in AAA Iowa.
Pitcher/Games Started/Win-Loss/ERA
Drew Rucsinski 18/5-8/5.83
Jack Buchanan 14/7-5/4.77
Rob Zastryzny 9/42/4.83
Ryan Williams 9/4-1/3.27
Pierce Johnson 9/1-4/7.24
Of the Iowa rotation, Johnson was the former #1 pitching prospect in the organization. But his stock has fallen. Badly.
On the Cubs Top Ten Prospects, only three pitchers are in that list:
#4 Duane Underwood, who is at AA with an 0-5, 4.91 ERA.
#8 Dylan Chase, who is in low A with a 1-0, 3.18 record in 4 starts.
#9 Oscar De La Cruz, who is low A but has not pitched all year.
An objective look at the talent in AAA and the top pitching prospects, the Cubs pitching pantry is pretty barren.
The lack of organizational pitching depth has been a concern for several years. The second half of 2016 may show its glaring weakness affecting a playoff race.
Most organizations have a balanced approach to player development: you draft both pitchers and hitters high in drafts, and develop all players in the same manner. You use trades and free agency to fill in development gaps on a major league roster. Only a few teams, like the Yankees in the past, have used free agency as the major building blocks for a major league roster.
The myth is that the Cubs's draft strategy was hitter-heavy. More than 47 percent of Theo's Cub draft choices have been pitchers. And the real problem with the Cubs farm system is that it has not developed one starting pitcher in the Theo tenure.
It is possible to draft and develop star pitching talent. Prime example is the White Sox (who have a reverse problem of being unable to draft and consistently develop position players).
The Cubs have relied on a five man rotation. Luckily, the pitchers have not gotten hurt. Adam Warren has made on spot start to give the rotation a day breather, but that did not help much.
If any starter breaks down, there is no help in AAA Iowa.
Pitcher/Games Started/Win-Loss/ERA
Drew Rucsinski 18/5-8/5.83
Jack Buchanan 14/7-5/4.77
Rob Zastryzny 9/42/4.83
Ryan Williams 9/4-1/3.27
Pierce Johnson 9/1-4/7.24
Of the Iowa rotation, Johnson was the former #1 pitching prospect in the organization. But his stock has fallen. Badly.
On the Cubs Top Ten Prospects, only three pitchers are in that list:
#4 Duane Underwood, who is at AA with an 0-5, 4.91 ERA.
#8 Dylan Chase, who is in low A with a 1-0, 3.18 record in 4 starts.
#9 Oscar De La Cruz, who is low A but has not pitched all year.
An objective look at the talent in AAA and the top pitching prospects, the Cubs pitching pantry is pretty barren.
The lack of organizational pitching depth has been a concern for several years. The second half of 2016 may show its glaring weakness affecting a playoff race.
July 11, 2016
AT THE BREAK
The Cubs finished the first "half" of the season with a tight win against the Pirates.
At the All-Star Break, the Cubs are in the first place in the NL Central with a 53-35 record, with a 7 game lead. The lead was built by a torrent 25-6 start, and then nose dive 6-15 finish.
As the season began, the Cubs were comfortable with the top three starters: Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and newly acquired John Lackey, a big game playoff pitcher. The Cubs hoped that Jason Hammel would rebound and Kyle Hendricks would be a serviceable 5th starter.
The world thought the Cubs would be able to hit with a line up of young and old bangers: Dexter Fowler is an offense minded lead off hitter; Kyle Schwarber has a pure contact swing, rookie of the year Kris Bryant would get better, Anthony Rizzo is always solid and newcomer Ben Zobrist would solidify the infield. The Cubs came out gangbusters to have a historic run differential during the first 30 games.
But Schwarber got hurt in an outfield collision. It was a serious knee injury (of the football type). He is gone for the season. That put the Cubs one lefty bat short. But Zobrist has come through in the clutch and the season streamed along victory lane. But then Fowler hurt his hamstring in June and he has been gone nearly a month. He DH'd on Saturday in South Bend, but did not play on Sunday. He won't play in the All-Star game. His return is indefinite.
The highlights:
Rizzo, .299 BA, 21 HR, 63 RBI
Bryant, .286 BA, 25 HR, 65 RBI
Zobrist, .283 BA, 13 HR, 47 RBI
Fowler, .290 BA, 7 HR, 28 RBI
The concerns:
Montero, .201 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI
Heyward, .243 BA, 4 H$, 28 RBI
Russell, .237 BA, 11 HR, 51 RBI
People wonder if Russell is going to be a career .235 hitter with a great glove. But others point out that he has 51 RBIs for a shortstop, which is far above average.
Heyward has gotten a lot of grief for his offensive woes, but the catching has been weak hitting until the call up of Willson Contreras (.305 BA, 5 HR, 16 RBI in 83 AB). Maddon was using Contreras like Schwarber, mostly in LF to get his bat into a struggling line up.
It also appears that Maddon has overmanaged more games this season (costing the Cubs a few games such as running out of bench players early). The critics still do not like Maddon playing players outside their natural position, such as Bryant in LF (who bruised his knee colliding with Almora on a play similar to the Schwarber injury incident). But Maddon justifies it by saying having players play multiple positions "extends" his short bench (which it does not because the number of players is the same).
It is hard to say that one player makes a line up purr, but Fowler is the catalyst for the Cubs. His nagging hamstring issue was a major reason for the Cubs first half offense woes. With his return still uncertain, the Cubs will have to rely more heavily on their prospects.
Maddon believes that it is the starting pitching that pilots this team. In the first half of the first half, the Cubs starters sported a combined ERA under 2.70. In the last 10 games, it is more than 5.70. The Cubs have gone 0 for 10 in quality starts in July.
Despite the horrible last starts of most of the starters, their overall records are very good:
Lackey: 7-5, 3.70 ERA, 1.106 WHIP
Arrieta: 12-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.093 WHIP
Lester: 9-4, 3.01 ERA, 1.084 WHIP
Hammel: 7-5, 3.96 ERA, 1.131 WHIP
Hendricks: 7-6, 2.55 ERA, 1.034 WHIP
Opponents have turned the table on the Cubs. Teams are taking more pitches from the starters (including biting sliders bending just out of the strike zone). By taking more pitches, batters are working deeper counts and putting more stress on the starters to be more precise. With a wildly variable umpire strike zone night to night, ultra competitive starters like Lester and Lackey can easily lose their cool and focus. And once they have to throw one into the zone, batters pounce.
That was the formula for the Cubs hot opening streak. Working long counts, getting to the opponent's bullpen early, "earning" walks and putting up big innings. That is how the Cubs became the talk of the league, the juggernaut.
Good teams adapt to changing conditions. Bad teams find excuses instead of solutions. Maddon hinted that the ending 24 straight days without a game break was grueling, but the Cubs only had Adam Warren stretched out for one spot start. Since mid-June, the bullpen has been taxed (especially for those few pitchers Maddon "trusts" in tight situations).
In 88 games, Travis Wood has pitched in 44, Justin Grimm 40, and Pedro Strop 38. Much of the stressful work load has come in the last 6 weeks.So far, Wood has compiled a 0.3 WAR, Grimm a negative 0.3 WAR and Strop a 0.5 WAR. Closer Hector Rondon has only 14 saves (4 blown saves) for a 1.1 WAR.
The consensus is that the Cubs need to go out and acquire bullpen help. Every contender is looking to improve their pens. A few have questioned whether the Cubs need to go out and get another quality starter (a harder task) because Hammel's history of poor second halves. Part of the issue is that the starters have failed to get through 6 IP. There have been no real rest days for the pen in a month. The quality of the bullpen is directly related to the quality starts of the rotation.
Arrieta's mechanics are messed up. Lester is getting squeezed by umpires. Lackey is old and looks tired at times. Hammel will be Hammel. Hendricks is poised to have a career year if he continues to pitch to his spots. Can the rotation turn it around after the Al-Star break? That may be the key to the entire season.
The trade market appears to be a tight one this year. Most teams are still within the realm of a wild card spot. The Yankees are the potential big Seller at the deadline, but ownership seems to have clamped down on making any major moves this year. The Yankees do not want to be perceived as "rebuilding" or quitting on a season. So big relief arms like Miller or Chapman may not be available if ownership thinks the team could have a second half run.
If you asked a Cub fan in spring training would they be happy if the Cubs were 7 games ahead of the Cardinals and Pirates at the All-Star break, they would have said "yes." But it was the roller coaster ride to get to that point that has some fans worried about the team's direction since the tailspin is the most recent turn.
At the All-Star Break, the Cubs are in the first place in the NL Central with a 53-35 record, with a 7 game lead. The lead was built by a torrent 25-6 start, and then nose dive 6-15 finish.
As the season began, the Cubs were comfortable with the top three starters: Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and newly acquired John Lackey, a big game playoff pitcher. The Cubs hoped that Jason Hammel would rebound and Kyle Hendricks would be a serviceable 5th starter.
The world thought the Cubs would be able to hit with a line up of young and old bangers: Dexter Fowler is an offense minded lead off hitter; Kyle Schwarber has a pure contact swing, rookie of the year Kris Bryant would get better, Anthony Rizzo is always solid and newcomer Ben Zobrist would solidify the infield. The Cubs came out gangbusters to have a historic run differential during the first 30 games.
But Schwarber got hurt in an outfield collision. It was a serious knee injury (of the football type). He is gone for the season. That put the Cubs one lefty bat short. But Zobrist has come through in the clutch and the season streamed along victory lane. But then Fowler hurt his hamstring in June and he has been gone nearly a month. He DH'd on Saturday in South Bend, but did not play on Sunday. He won't play in the All-Star game. His return is indefinite.
The highlights:
Rizzo, .299 BA, 21 HR, 63 RBI
Bryant, .286 BA, 25 HR, 65 RBI
Zobrist, .283 BA, 13 HR, 47 RBI
Fowler, .290 BA, 7 HR, 28 RBI
The concerns:
Montero, .201 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI
Heyward, .243 BA, 4 H$, 28 RBI
Russell, .237 BA, 11 HR, 51 RBI
People wonder if Russell is going to be a career .235 hitter with a great glove. But others point out that he has 51 RBIs for a shortstop, which is far above average.
Heyward has gotten a lot of grief for his offensive woes, but the catching has been weak hitting until the call up of Willson Contreras (.305 BA, 5 HR, 16 RBI in 83 AB). Maddon was using Contreras like Schwarber, mostly in LF to get his bat into a struggling line up.
It also appears that Maddon has overmanaged more games this season (costing the Cubs a few games such as running out of bench players early). The critics still do not like Maddon playing players outside their natural position, such as Bryant in LF (who bruised his knee colliding with Almora on a play similar to the Schwarber injury incident). But Maddon justifies it by saying having players play multiple positions "extends" his short bench (which it does not because the number of players is the same).
It is hard to say that one player makes a line up purr, but Fowler is the catalyst for the Cubs. His nagging hamstring issue was a major reason for the Cubs first half offense woes. With his return still uncertain, the Cubs will have to rely more heavily on their prospects.
Maddon believes that it is the starting pitching that pilots this team. In the first half of the first half, the Cubs starters sported a combined ERA under 2.70. In the last 10 games, it is more than 5.70. The Cubs have gone 0 for 10 in quality starts in July.
Despite the horrible last starts of most of the starters, their overall records are very good:
Lackey: 7-5, 3.70 ERA, 1.106 WHIP
Arrieta: 12-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.093 WHIP
Lester: 9-4, 3.01 ERA, 1.084 WHIP
Hammel: 7-5, 3.96 ERA, 1.131 WHIP
Hendricks: 7-6, 2.55 ERA, 1.034 WHIP
Opponents have turned the table on the Cubs. Teams are taking more pitches from the starters (including biting sliders bending just out of the strike zone). By taking more pitches, batters are working deeper counts and putting more stress on the starters to be more precise. With a wildly variable umpire strike zone night to night, ultra competitive starters like Lester and Lackey can easily lose their cool and focus. And once they have to throw one into the zone, batters pounce.
That was the formula for the Cubs hot opening streak. Working long counts, getting to the opponent's bullpen early, "earning" walks and putting up big innings. That is how the Cubs became the talk of the league, the juggernaut.
Good teams adapt to changing conditions. Bad teams find excuses instead of solutions. Maddon hinted that the ending 24 straight days without a game break was grueling, but the Cubs only had Adam Warren stretched out for one spot start. Since mid-June, the bullpen has been taxed (especially for those few pitchers Maddon "trusts" in tight situations).
In 88 games, Travis Wood has pitched in 44, Justin Grimm 40, and Pedro Strop 38. Much of the stressful work load has come in the last 6 weeks.So far, Wood has compiled a 0.3 WAR, Grimm a negative 0.3 WAR and Strop a 0.5 WAR. Closer Hector Rondon has only 14 saves (4 blown saves) for a 1.1 WAR.
The consensus is that the Cubs need to go out and acquire bullpen help. Every contender is looking to improve their pens. A few have questioned whether the Cubs need to go out and get another quality starter (a harder task) because Hammel's history of poor second halves. Part of the issue is that the starters have failed to get through 6 IP. There have been no real rest days for the pen in a month. The quality of the bullpen is directly related to the quality starts of the rotation.
Arrieta's mechanics are messed up. Lester is getting squeezed by umpires. Lackey is old and looks tired at times. Hammel will be Hammel. Hendricks is poised to have a career year if he continues to pitch to his spots. Can the rotation turn it around after the Al-Star break? That may be the key to the entire season.
The trade market appears to be a tight one this year. Most teams are still within the realm of a wild card spot. The Yankees are the potential big Seller at the deadline, but ownership seems to have clamped down on making any major moves this year. The Yankees do not want to be perceived as "rebuilding" or quitting on a season. So big relief arms like Miller or Chapman may not be available if ownership thinks the team could have a second half run.
If you asked a Cub fan in spring training would they be happy if the Cubs were 7 games ahead of the Cardinals and Pirates at the All-Star break, they would have said "yes." But it was the roller coaster ride to get to that point that has some fans worried about the team's direction since the tailspin is the most recent turn.
July 6, 2016
SLIPPING
The Cubs fast start spoiled many of their fans.
After going a fireball 25-6 to start the season, the Cubs have since "struggled" with a 27-25 mark.
The Cubs are still 9 games ahead of second place Cardinals in the NL Central. But many feel that there is something really wrong.
The objective evidence is that the vaulted starting rotation cannot get through 6 innings.
The objective evidence is that the bullpen is not as solid as last season.
The objective evidence is that opponents have adjusted to the Cubs - - - being more patient at the plate, getting pitchers into high pitch counts and stressful innings.
The objective evidence that the Cubs have been relying more on the home run than the congo-line big inning run production.
And the stellar defense has had a few big errors in recent weeks.
The Cubs have lost 5 of the last 6; 6 of the last 10; and 12 of the last 20 games.
Part of the problem may stem from the fact that the Cubs are starting so many prospects.
Part of the problem may stem from the fact that the Cubs still carry 13 pitchers which means the bench is small. Nothing is worse than having both Travis Wood and Jason Hammel pinch hit in the same game.
Part of the problem is that the Cubs line up is still triggered by Dexter Fowler in the lead off position. Fowler has a hamstring issue. There is no word when he will return. The Cubs want to be careful with Fowler so as not to rush him back in the line up.
Maddon knows something is a miss. He has been juggling lineups as strangely as Lou Piniella in his melt down year. He sent down Adam Warren to AAA to stretch out to start a six man rotation because the Cubs are on a 24 game without a day off schedule (but Warren comes back to start one game prior to the All-Star break). There may be more fear in the five starters continually to be average to poor pitchers after the break as to demote one (Hammel is a candidate).
Maddon keeps moving players around to keep them engaged in the team concept. With no set lineups, it is an adventure every day. He wants to keep his team loose. But it almost cost him when Albert Almora and Kris Bryant collided Monday in the outfield. Bryant left the game with a leg bruise, but it could have been worse. (The Schwarber injury was on a similar play.) Maddon likes his rookies aggressive play, but they still need to learn to adapt to major league circumstances. The veterans also need to get their baseball IQ refreshed like when John Lackey put his hands on his head after a passed ball, but failed to cover home plate allowing speedy Billy Hamilton to score from second base!
The baseball season is the longest and most grueling test in American sports. There will be times when players are physically and mentally tired. But good teams find a way to push through and grind out the tough streaks in the schedule. The most critical point of the Cubs season will be the first 10 games after the All-Star break. Will the Cubs return to their favored sons status, or will the fear meter continue to creep up to crisis mode?
After going a fireball 25-6 to start the season, the Cubs have since "struggled" with a 27-25 mark.
The Cubs are still 9 games ahead of second place Cardinals in the NL Central. But many feel that there is something really wrong.
The objective evidence is that the vaulted starting rotation cannot get through 6 innings.
The objective evidence is that the bullpen is not as solid as last season.
The objective evidence is that opponents have adjusted to the Cubs - - - being more patient at the plate, getting pitchers into high pitch counts and stressful innings.
The objective evidence that the Cubs have been relying more on the home run than the congo-line big inning run production.
And the stellar defense has had a few big errors in recent weeks.
The Cubs have lost 5 of the last 6; 6 of the last 10; and 12 of the last 20 games.
Part of the problem may stem from the fact that the Cubs are starting so many prospects.
Part of the problem may stem from the fact that the Cubs still carry 13 pitchers which means the bench is small. Nothing is worse than having both Travis Wood and Jason Hammel pinch hit in the same game.
Part of the problem is that the Cubs line up is still triggered by Dexter Fowler in the lead off position. Fowler has a hamstring issue. There is no word when he will return. The Cubs want to be careful with Fowler so as not to rush him back in the line up.
Maddon knows something is a miss. He has been juggling lineups as strangely as Lou Piniella in his melt down year. He sent down Adam Warren to AAA to stretch out to start a six man rotation because the Cubs are on a 24 game without a day off schedule (but Warren comes back to start one game prior to the All-Star break). There may be more fear in the five starters continually to be average to poor pitchers after the break as to demote one (Hammel is a candidate).
Maddon keeps moving players around to keep them engaged in the team concept. With no set lineups, it is an adventure every day. He wants to keep his team loose. But it almost cost him when Albert Almora and Kris Bryant collided Monday in the outfield. Bryant left the game with a leg bruise, but it could have been worse. (The Schwarber injury was on a similar play.) Maddon likes his rookies aggressive play, but they still need to learn to adapt to major league circumstances. The veterans also need to get their baseball IQ refreshed like when John Lackey put his hands on his head after a passed ball, but failed to cover home plate allowing speedy Billy Hamilton to score from second base!
The baseball season is the longest and most grueling test in American sports. There will be times when players are physically and mentally tired. But good teams find a way to push through and grind out the tough streaks in the schedule. The most critical point of the Cubs season will be the first 10 games after the All-Star break. Will the Cubs return to their favored sons status, or will the fear meter continue to creep up to crisis mode?
July 4, 2016
HALF WAY HOME
The Cubs are in a bad 4-10 streak after being swept by the Mets in a four game series. Ironically, before the series, NY media called the Mets "done" because of their struggles and potential bone spur issues with two of their young pitchers.
The Cubs have been dragging themselves through a long road trip. The starting pitching, the key to the brilliant start, has faltered to a level of real concern. Jake Arrieta cannot get through 6 innings. Jon Lester just had the worst start of his entire career. Jason Hammel is turning into his own personal second half Frankenstein of bad.
The week started with the Las Vegas bookies not taking any more bets that the Cubs would win the NL Central. They called it a foregone conclusion. The Cubs were 11 games up on the Cardinals at the time. But now, that deficit is down to 8.
The Cubs have had injuries. But all clubs have injuries. Anthony Rizzo slumped in May, but was on a tear in June. Hitters have ups and downs. The Cubs are playing a lot of prospects the last few weeks due to nagging injuries to starters. For the most part, Willson Contreras and Albert Almora have played well. Joe Maddon needed hitting and the youngsters were giving him contact so the manager rode the hot lumber.
But the bullpen was in a slumber which may have put more pressure on the starters. But in reality, the league has caught up with the Cubs pitching philosophy. More teams are taking pitches and working a count against the starters. By increasing the pitch counts, the Cubs starters have no easy innings. It exposes the weakness of the bullpen earlier in games. By teams taking more pitches and not swinging at sliders diving away or fastballs high in the zone, starters have to work harder to paint the corners. With the umpire strike zone all over the map this year, a starter will get frustrated when he is not getting border line calls. Steve Stone calls these long "stress" innings (with men on base, hitters driving in runs) more damaging than just an increased pitch count.
The rest of the league is using the Cubs offensive blueprint. Cubs hitters have worked counts and will except walks to keep the hitting line moving down the order. This lead to a lot of big innings and the high run differential the Cubs had on their peers.
But there is a silver lining in the current tails spin: the Cubs are still 51-30. An observer can tell that the Cubs are still on pace to win 102 games. If the Cubs just play .500 ball for the rest of the season, they would win 92 games (which in most minds would be a disappointment after winning 97 last season.)
ESPN has reminded us that the current season has ghostly flashback to 1977.
The Cubs current record of 51-30 is its best mark at the season’s midway point since the 1977 team.
But the 1977 Cubs are not a pleasant memory. They started 47-22 and led the NL East by as much as 8½ games. These are the Cubs of Bill Buckner, 20-game winner Rick Reuschel and future Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter. But the team cratered in the second half of the year, going 34-59 in the last 93 games to finish 81-81, good for fourth place.
Despite the current woes, the Cubs have to be proud of their first half accomplishment. Now, the hard part: to build upon their success and break the Cubs longest losing streak of the season.
The Cubs have been dragging themselves through a long road trip. The starting pitching, the key to the brilliant start, has faltered to a level of real concern. Jake Arrieta cannot get through 6 innings. Jon Lester just had the worst start of his entire career. Jason Hammel is turning into his own personal second half Frankenstein of bad.
The week started with the Las Vegas bookies not taking any more bets that the Cubs would win the NL Central. They called it a foregone conclusion. The Cubs were 11 games up on the Cardinals at the time. But now, that deficit is down to 8.
The Cubs have had injuries. But all clubs have injuries. Anthony Rizzo slumped in May, but was on a tear in June. Hitters have ups and downs. The Cubs are playing a lot of prospects the last few weeks due to nagging injuries to starters. For the most part, Willson Contreras and Albert Almora have played well. Joe Maddon needed hitting and the youngsters were giving him contact so the manager rode the hot lumber.
But the bullpen was in a slumber which may have put more pressure on the starters. But in reality, the league has caught up with the Cubs pitching philosophy. More teams are taking pitches and working a count against the starters. By increasing the pitch counts, the Cubs starters have no easy innings. It exposes the weakness of the bullpen earlier in games. By teams taking more pitches and not swinging at sliders diving away or fastballs high in the zone, starters have to work harder to paint the corners. With the umpire strike zone all over the map this year, a starter will get frustrated when he is not getting border line calls. Steve Stone calls these long "stress" innings (with men on base, hitters driving in runs) more damaging than just an increased pitch count.
The rest of the league is using the Cubs offensive blueprint. Cubs hitters have worked counts and will except walks to keep the hitting line moving down the order. This lead to a lot of big innings and the high run differential the Cubs had on their peers.
But there is a silver lining in the current tails spin: the Cubs are still 51-30. An observer can tell that the Cubs are still on pace to win 102 games. If the Cubs just play .500 ball for the rest of the season, they would win 92 games (which in most minds would be a disappointment after winning 97 last season.)
ESPN has reminded us that the current season has ghostly flashback to 1977.
The Cubs current record of 51-30 is its best mark at the season’s midway point since the 1977 team.
But the 1977 Cubs are not a pleasant memory. They started 47-22 and led the NL East by as much as 8½ games. These are the Cubs of Bill Buckner, 20-game winner Rick Reuschel and future Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter. But the team cratered in the second half of the year, going 34-59 in the last 93 games to finish 81-81, good for fourth place.
Despite the current woes, the Cubs have to be proud of their first half accomplishment. Now, the hard part: to build upon their success and break the Cubs longest losing streak of the season.
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