It is crunch time in the NL Central.
Today's standings:
Cubs 83-66
Brewers 80-70 3.5 GB
Cardinals 77-72 6 GB
The Cubs and Cards have 13 games to play; Brewers 12.
The Cubs have a 97.1 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Brewers have 14.8%. The Cardinals only 4.0%.
But what will it take to win the division?
The Brewers are currently on an 8-2 streak. At that pace to the end of the season, the Brewers would win 88 games. So really, the mark to take the crown is 88 wins.
The Cardinals are currently on a 5-5 streak. They would have to win 11 of their last 13 games to reach 88 wins. That is highly unlikely.
The Cubs would have to go 5-8 to reach 88 games.Considering the Cubs have been good in their last ten games (7-3), they should easily reach 88 wins. The Cubs current winning percentage projects 90 wins which means the Brewers would have to win every remaining game to tie the Cubs.
The Cubs appear to be on the cusp of repeating their NL Central championship. The only potential spoiler remains the pesky Brewers.
Showing posts with label standings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label standings. Show all posts
September 19, 2017
August 24, 2017
5 & 7
Barring an epic collapse, the rule of thumb is that a team can realistically make up one game per week in the standings.
There are approximately 5 weeks left to go in the season.
The Brewers are 3.5 games behind the Cubs. The Cardinals are 4.5 games behind.
The NL Central rivals may be looking more toward a tightening wild card race than a division win.
But the Cubs still have 7 games left with each of the Brewers and Cardinals. That means that the Brewers and Cardinals are not out of the race even if they trail by 7 games before meeting the Cubs.
Another rule of thumb is that a team needs to take care of business in its own division. The only two teams left with an above .500 record are the Brewers and Cardinals. The Cubs still need to play well against division teams in order to avoid a bitter September surprise.
There are approximately 5 weeks left to go in the season.
The Brewers are 3.5 games behind the Cubs. The Cardinals are 4.5 games behind.
The NL Central rivals may be looking more toward a tightening wild card race than a division win.
But the Cubs still have 7 games left with each of the Brewers and Cardinals. That means that the Brewers and Cardinals are not out of the race even if they trail by 7 games before meeting the Cubs.
Another rule of thumb is that a team needs to take care of business in its own division. The only two teams left with an above .500 record are the Brewers and Cardinals. The Cubs still need to play well against division teams in order to avoid a bitter September surprise.
July 11, 2016
AT THE BREAK
The Cubs finished the first "half" of the season with a tight win against the Pirates.
At the All-Star Break, the Cubs are in the first place in the NL Central with a 53-35 record, with a 7 game lead. The lead was built by a torrent 25-6 start, and then nose dive 6-15 finish.
As the season began, the Cubs were comfortable with the top three starters: Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and newly acquired John Lackey, a big game playoff pitcher. The Cubs hoped that Jason Hammel would rebound and Kyle Hendricks would be a serviceable 5th starter.
The world thought the Cubs would be able to hit with a line up of young and old bangers: Dexter Fowler is an offense minded lead off hitter; Kyle Schwarber has a pure contact swing, rookie of the year Kris Bryant would get better, Anthony Rizzo is always solid and newcomer Ben Zobrist would solidify the infield. The Cubs came out gangbusters to have a historic run differential during the first 30 games.
But Schwarber got hurt in an outfield collision. It was a serious knee injury (of the football type). He is gone for the season. That put the Cubs one lefty bat short. But Zobrist has come through in the clutch and the season streamed along victory lane. But then Fowler hurt his hamstring in June and he has been gone nearly a month. He DH'd on Saturday in South Bend, but did not play on Sunday. He won't play in the All-Star game. His return is indefinite.
The highlights:
Rizzo, .299 BA, 21 HR, 63 RBI
Bryant, .286 BA, 25 HR, 65 RBI
Zobrist, .283 BA, 13 HR, 47 RBI
Fowler, .290 BA, 7 HR, 28 RBI
The concerns:
Montero, .201 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI
Heyward, .243 BA, 4 H$, 28 RBI
Russell, .237 BA, 11 HR, 51 RBI
People wonder if Russell is going to be a career .235 hitter with a great glove. But others point out that he has 51 RBIs for a shortstop, which is far above average.
Heyward has gotten a lot of grief for his offensive woes, but the catching has been weak hitting until the call up of Willson Contreras (.305 BA, 5 HR, 16 RBI in 83 AB). Maddon was using Contreras like Schwarber, mostly in LF to get his bat into a struggling line up.
It also appears that Maddon has overmanaged more games this season (costing the Cubs a few games such as running out of bench players early). The critics still do not like Maddon playing players outside their natural position, such as Bryant in LF (who bruised his knee colliding with Almora on a play similar to the Schwarber injury incident). But Maddon justifies it by saying having players play multiple positions "extends" his short bench (which it does not because the number of players is the same).
It is hard to say that one player makes a line up purr, but Fowler is the catalyst for the Cubs. His nagging hamstring issue was a major reason for the Cubs first half offense woes. With his return still uncertain, the Cubs will have to rely more heavily on their prospects.
Maddon believes that it is the starting pitching that pilots this team. In the first half of the first half, the Cubs starters sported a combined ERA under 2.70. In the last 10 games, it is more than 5.70. The Cubs have gone 0 for 10 in quality starts in July.
Despite the horrible last starts of most of the starters, their overall records are very good:
Lackey: 7-5, 3.70 ERA, 1.106 WHIP
Arrieta: 12-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.093 WHIP
Lester: 9-4, 3.01 ERA, 1.084 WHIP
Hammel: 7-5, 3.96 ERA, 1.131 WHIP
Hendricks: 7-6, 2.55 ERA, 1.034 WHIP
Opponents have turned the table on the Cubs. Teams are taking more pitches from the starters (including biting sliders bending just out of the strike zone). By taking more pitches, batters are working deeper counts and putting more stress on the starters to be more precise. With a wildly variable umpire strike zone night to night, ultra competitive starters like Lester and Lackey can easily lose their cool and focus. And once they have to throw one into the zone, batters pounce.
That was the formula for the Cubs hot opening streak. Working long counts, getting to the opponent's bullpen early, "earning" walks and putting up big innings. That is how the Cubs became the talk of the league, the juggernaut.
Good teams adapt to changing conditions. Bad teams find excuses instead of solutions. Maddon hinted that the ending 24 straight days without a game break was grueling, but the Cubs only had Adam Warren stretched out for one spot start. Since mid-June, the bullpen has been taxed (especially for those few pitchers Maddon "trusts" in tight situations).
In 88 games, Travis Wood has pitched in 44, Justin Grimm 40, and Pedro Strop 38. Much of the stressful work load has come in the last 6 weeks.So far, Wood has compiled a 0.3 WAR, Grimm a negative 0.3 WAR and Strop a 0.5 WAR. Closer Hector Rondon has only 14 saves (4 blown saves) for a 1.1 WAR.
The consensus is that the Cubs need to go out and acquire bullpen help. Every contender is looking to improve their pens. A few have questioned whether the Cubs need to go out and get another quality starter (a harder task) because Hammel's history of poor second halves. Part of the issue is that the starters have failed to get through 6 IP. There have been no real rest days for the pen in a month. The quality of the bullpen is directly related to the quality starts of the rotation.
Arrieta's mechanics are messed up. Lester is getting squeezed by umpires. Lackey is old and looks tired at times. Hammel will be Hammel. Hendricks is poised to have a career year if he continues to pitch to his spots. Can the rotation turn it around after the Al-Star break? That may be the key to the entire season.
The trade market appears to be a tight one this year. Most teams are still within the realm of a wild card spot. The Yankees are the potential big Seller at the deadline, but ownership seems to have clamped down on making any major moves this year. The Yankees do not want to be perceived as "rebuilding" or quitting on a season. So big relief arms like Miller or Chapman may not be available if ownership thinks the team could have a second half run.
If you asked a Cub fan in spring training would they be happy if the Cubs were 7 games ahead of the Cardinals and Pirates at the All-Star break, they would have said "yes." But it was the roller coaster ride to get to that point that has some fans worried about the team's direction since the tailspin is the most recent turn.
At the All-Star Break, the Cubs are in the first place in the NL Central with a 53-35 record, with a 7 game lead. The lead was built by a torrent 25-6 start, and then nose dive 6-15 finish.
As the season began, the Cubs were comfortable with the top three starters: Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and newly acquired John Lackey, a big game playoff pitcher. The Cubs hoped that Jason Hammel would rebound and Kyle Hendricks would be a serviceable 5th starter.
The world thought the Cubs would be able to hit with a line up of young and old bangers: Dexter Fowler is an offense minded lead off hitter; Kyle Schwarber has a pure contact swing, rookie of the year Kris Bryant would get better, Anthony Rizzo is always solid and newcomer Ben Zobrist would solidify the infield. The Cubs came out gangbusters to have a historic run differential during the first 30 games.
But Schwarber got hurt in an outfield collision. It was a serious knee injury (of the football type). He is gone for the season. That put the Cubs one lefty bat short. But Zobrist has come through in the clutch and the season streamed along victory lane. But then Fowler hurt his hamstring in June and he has been gone nearly a month. He DH'd on Saturday in South Bend, but did not play on Sunday. He won't play in the All-Star game. His return is indefinite.
The highlights:
Rizzo, .299 BA, 21 HR, 63 RBI
Bryant, .286 BA, 25 HR, 65 RBI
Zobrist, .283 BA, 13 HR, 47 RBI
Fowler, .290 BA, 7 HR, 28 RBI
The concerns:
Montero, .201 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI
Heyward, .243 BA, 4 H$, 28 RBI
Russell, .237 BA, 11 HR, 51 RBI
People wonder if Russell is going to be a career .235 hitter with a great glove. But others point out that he has 51 RBIs for a shortstop, which is far above average.
Heyward has gotten a lot of grief for his offensive woes, but the catching has been weak hitting until the call up of Willson Contreras (.305 BA, 5 HR, 16 RBI in 83 AB). Maddon was using Contreras like Schwarber, mostly in LF to get his bat into a struggling line up.
It also appears that Maddon has overmanaged more games this season (costing the Cubs a few games such as running out of bench players early). The critics still do not like Maddon playing players outside their natural position, such as Bryant in LF (who bruised his knee colliding with Almora on a play similar to the Schwarber injury incident). But Maddon justifies it by saying having players play multiple positions "extends" his short bench (which it does not because the number of players is the same).
It is hard to say that one player makes a line up purr, but Fowler is the catalyst for the Cubs. His nagging hamstring issue was a major reason for the Cubs first half offense woes. With his return still uncertain, the Cubs will have to rely more heavily on their prospects.
Maddon believes that it is the starting pitching that pilots this team. In the first half of the first half, the Cubs starters sported a combined ERA under 2.70. In the last 10 games, it is more than 5.70. The Cubs have gone 0 for 10 in quality starts in July.
Despite the horrible last starts of most of the starters, their overall records are very good:
Lackey: 7-5, 3.70 ERA, 1.106 WHIP
Arrieta: 12-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.093 WHIP
Lester: 9-4, 3.01 ERA, 1.084 WHIP
Hammel: 7-5, 3.96 ERA, 1.131 WHIP
Hendricks: 7-6, 2.55 ERA, 1.034 WHIP
Opponents have turned the table on the Cubs. Teams are taking more pitches from the starters (including biting sliders bending just out of the strike zone). By taking more pitches, batters are working deeper counts and putting more stress on the starters to be more precise. With a wildly variable umpire strike zone night to night, ultra competitive starters like Lester and Lackey can easily lose their cool and focus. And once they have to throw one into the zone, batters pounce.
That was the formula for the Cubs hot opening streak. Working long counts, getting to the opponent's bullpen early, "earning" walks and putting up big innings. That is how the Cubs became the talk of the league, the juggernaut.
Good teams adapt to changing conditions. Bad teams find excuses instead of solutions. Maddon hinted that the ending 24 straight days without a game break was grueling, but the Cubs only had Adam Warren stretched out for one spot start. Since mid-June, the bullpen has been taxed (especially for those few pitchers Maddon "trusts" in tight situations).
In 88 games, Travis Wood has pitched in 44, Justin Grimm 40, and Pedro Strop 38. Much of the stressful work load has come in the last 6 weeks.So far, Wood has compiled a 0.3 WAR, Grimm a negative 0.3 WAR and Strop a 0.5 WAR. Closer Hector Rondon has only 14 saves (4 blown saves) for a 1.1 WAR.
The consensus is that the Cubs need to go out and acquire bullpen help. Every contender is looking to improve their pens. A few have questioned whether the Cubs need to go out and get another quality starter (a harder task) because Hammel's history of poor second halves. Part of the issue is that the starters have failed to get through 6 IP. There have been no real rest days for the pen in a month. The quality of the bullpen is directly related to the quality starts of the rotation.
Arrieta's mechanics are messed up. Lester is getting squeezed by umpires. Lackey is old and looks tired at times. Hammel will be Hammel. Hendricks is poised to have a career year if he continues to pitch to his spots. Can the rotation turn it around after the Al-Star break? That may be the key to the entire season.
The trade market appears to be a tight one this year. Most teams are still within the realm of a wild card spot. The Yankees are the potential big Seller at the deadline, but ownership seems to have clamped down on making any major moves this year. The Yankees do not want to be perceived as "rebuilding" or quitting on a season. So big relief arms like Miller or Chapman may not be available if ownership thinks the team could have a second half run.
If you asked a Cub fan in spring training would they be happy if the Cubs were 7 games ahead of the Cardinals and Pirates at the All-Star break, they would have said "yes." But it was the roller coaster ride to get to that point that has some fans worried about the team's direction since the tailspin is the most recent turn.
April 20, 2016
THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY
The early season has had its share of good, bad and ugly moments.
The good: the Cubs pitching staff leads the NL in ERA and WHIP. Quality starts have not taxed the bullpen. The Cubs are the first team this year to 11 wins. The Cubs have the largest lead, 4 games, in any division after 14 games. The Cubs 11-3 start is the best since 1970.
More good: it appears the Cubs have overcome any mental block on playing the rival Cardinals. Last night's victory was the 5th in a row over the Redbirds. As such, the Cubs now know that they can beat any of the teams in their division.
The bad: the Cubs core continue to struggle at the plate. Players like Heyward, Rizzo and Zobrist have had oh-for-20 stretches. But the only saving grace has been patience st the plate and getting walks. They have had solid starting pitching to win close, low scoring games.
More bad: Jorge Soler crashed into the left field wall to give slow footed Cardinal catcher Molina a triple. Even the Cubs announcers had to admit that the ball "could" have been caught. The Cubs defense has been spotty at times. If not for pitcher Jason Hammel's two-run single, the Soler defensive lapse would have cost the Cubs the game.
The ugly: Kyle Schwarber's knee and leg injury was so severe that he had the Dallas Cowboys team physician do his reconstructive surgery. It is rare for a baseball player to have a "football" type injury. The Cubs statement on the surgery said the team was "hopeful" that Schwarber would be back in 2017 for spring training. But that is not a guarantee. As beat reporters indicate, the under-reported aspect of Schwarber's injury was the severe high ankle sprain. Schwarber could not get his shoe on because of the massive swelling. The surgery had to be delayed until all the swelling went down.
More ugly: there is no guarantee that Schwarber can come back to his pre-injury levels. Ligament tears can be painful and debilitating. They can even permanently change your lifestyle.
The cruciate ligaments -- ACL and PCL -- cannot be repaired. Once they are completely torn or stretched beyond their limits, that's it. The only option is a reconstruction. In this procedure, tendons are taken from other parts of your leg or a cadaver to replace the torn ligament. Reconstructive surgery may not give complete stability to the knee. It is usually a long recovery process which may have some patients not being able to return to their pre-injury activities.
During the long season ahead, the Cubs may miss Schwarber's bat more than expected if the middle of the order has prolonged hitting slumps.
The good: the Cubs pitching staff leads the NL in ERA and WHIP. Quality starts have not taxed the bullpen. The Cubs are the first team this year to 11 wins. The Cubs have the largest lead, 4 games, in any division after 14 games. The Cubs 11-3 start is the best since 1970.
More good: it appears the Cubs have overcome any mental block on playing the rival Cardinals. Last night's victory was the 5th in a row over the Redbirds. As such, the Cubs now know that they can beat any of the teams in their division.
The bad: the Cubs core continue to struggle at the plate. Players like Heyward, Rizzo and Zobrist have had oh-for-20 stretches. But the only saving grace has been patience st the plate and getting walks. They have had solid starting pitching to win close, low scoring games.
More bad: Jorge Soler crashed into the left field wall to give slow footed Cardinal catcher Molina a triple. Even the Cubs announcers had to admit that the ball "could" have been caught. The Cubs defense has been spotty at times. If not for pitcher Jason Hammel's two-run single, the Soler defensive lapse would have cost the Cubs the game.
The ugly: Kyle Schwarber's knee and leg injury was so severe that he had the Dallas Cowboys team physician do his reconstructive surgery. It is rare for a baseball player to have a "football" type injury. The Cubs statement on the surgery said the team was "hopeful" that Schwarber would be back in 2017 for spring training. But that is not a guarantee. As beat reporters indicate, the under-reported aspect of Schwarber's injury was the severe high ankle sprain. Schwarber could not get his shoe on because of the massive swelling. The surgery had to be delayed until all the swelling went down.
More ugly: there is no guarantee that Schwarber can come back to his pre-injury levels. Ligament tears can be painful and debilitating. They can even permanently change your lifestyle.
The cruciate ligaments -- ACL and PCL -- cannot be repaired. Once they are completely torn or stretched beyond their limits, that's it. The only option is a reconstruction. In this procedure, tendons are taken from other parts of your leg or a cadaver to replace the torn ligament. Reconstructive surgery may not give complete stability to the knee. It is usually a long recovery process which may have some patients not being able to return to their pre-injury activities.
During the long season ahead, the Cubs may miss Schwarber's bat more than expected if the middle of the order has prolonged hitting slumps.
May 26, 2015
FIRST TURN SURPRISES
Memorial Day usually marks the date where teams start to evaluate their seasons. Sportswriters will sharpen their pens to begin to write their updated "buyer" and "seller" trade deadline stories. GMs will begin to see if their teams are over-achieving or under-performing so far this year.
What have been the biggest surprises so far this year?
Tampa Bay in first place in the AL East was something no one saw coming at the end of spring training. It was supposed to be a Boston runaway rebuild and the Yankees sneaking around second.
Kansas City itself believes its last year playoff run was real so it is not a surprise that the Royals are in first place. But the Tigers being in third place is more of a surprise. But not as bad as the White Sox being in last place in the division when on paper Chicago had the best off-season.
Houston is the biggest surprise with best 29 wins and a 5.5 game lead in the AL West.
The Mets hot start was a surprise with its young rotation, but being in second is still better than expected for this underachieving team.
The Cubs being in second place for most of the season is a surprise. Being four games over .500 (24-20) and 4.5 games behind the Cardinals is better than most people expected from the young Cubs.
The biggest downside surprise may be the Padres. An aggressive off-season has yielded a weak fourth place (7 games behind) in the NL West.
Based on these surprises, there may be less "sellers" this year as teams that should not have been so competitive (Rays, Astros, Cubs, Mets) won't be looking to next year.
What have been the biggest surprises so far this year?
Tampa Bay in first place in the AL East was something no one saw coming at the end of spring training. It was supposed to be a Boston runaway rebuild and the Yankees sneaking around second.
Kansas City itself believes its last year playoff run was real so it is not a surprise that the Royals are in first place. But the Tigers being in third place is more of a surprise. But not as bad as the White Sox being in last place in the division when on paper Chicago had the best off-season.
Houston is the biggest surprise with best 29 wins and a 5.5 game lead in the AL West.
The Mets hot start was a surprise with its young rotation, but being in second is still better than expected for this underachieving team.
The Cubs being in second place for most of the season is a surprise. Being four games over .500 (24-20) and 4.5 games behind the Cardinals is better than most people expected from the young Cubs.
The biggest downside surprise may be the Padres. An aggressive off-season has yielded a weak fourth place (7 games behind) in the NL West.
Based on these surprises, there may be less "sellers" this year as teams that should not have been so competitive (Rays, Astros, Cubs, Mets) won't be looking to next year.
March 2, 2014
MOST/LEAST IMPROVED
Fangraphs takes a stab at guessing which team will be the most improved in 2014. It also rates the teams likely to fall the most. It is based upon estimated WAR, and last season success/failure weighs heavily into the rankings.
The ten most-improved teams:
It also speculates that teams not mentioned will remain basically the same, like the Cardinals (division winners) and the Cubs (division bottom feeder).
- Astros, +18 WAR
- Phillies, +12
- Mariners, +11
- Marlins, +8
- Yankees, +8
- Blue Jays, +8
- Padres, +8
- White Sox, +6
- Twins, +5
- Brewers, +4
- Red Sox, -16 WAR
- Tigers, -14
- Rays, -8
- Braves, -8
- Athletics, -8
- Reds, -7
- Rangers, -7
- Royals, -6
- Orioles, -6
- Pirates, -5
It also speculates that teams not mentioned will remain basically the same, like the Cardinals (division winners) and the Cubs (division bottom feeder).
July 9, 2012
MID SEASON STANDINGS
The standings at the All-Star break usually determine the buyers and sellers as the trade deadline nears at the end of the month.
AL East:
Yankees turned a slow start into a 52-33 record and a 7 game lead on Baltimore. The Rays are 7.5 games behind and the Red Sox are 9.5 games behind. Unless the Red Sox get on a post break hot streak, they may be Sellers like the Blue Jays. The Yankees need a starting pitcher or two to balance their strong offense. The Orioles are just happy to be near the top, but may not have the financial footing to make any big moves.
AL Central:
The White Sox used a squad of unheralded rookie pitchers to shore up their rotation and bullpen to grind out a 47-38 record and a 3 game lead on Cleveland. The favored Tigers are 3.5 games behind and the Royals and Twins are far off the pace. Cleveland is looking for a serious bat for their weak line up. The Tigers are scouting pitching and infield help. The White Sox deal for Youklis has had outstanding returns (14 RBI in 13 games and good defense at third). The Royals may be sellers for the right price and the Twins have a high priced core of underperforming stars so it hard to say if the Twins will do anything except stand pat and try again next season with the same cast.
AL West:
The Rangers have been the dominate team, from the pre-season moves to the present. At 52-34, Texas has a 4 game lead on the Pujols-Wilson big free agent payroll Angels. Oakland and Seattle are not in contention and could be major "blow up the roster" trade partners for prospects. The Rangers appear to only want to tweak their roster with upgrades in the bullpen or bench role players. The Angels have promoted from within with rookie Mike Trout as a potential superstar in the making so they may not have to make deals.
NL East:
The Nationals had been so bad for so long their high draft picks are finally panning out in a big way. The Nats are in first with a 49-34 record, 4 games ahead of Atlanta. The Nationals overstocked on starting pitching and may have a nice trade piece in Lannan (LHP) for a line-up changer. The Braves pitching has been inconsistent and their line up has been re-tooled to be better defensively. The Braves could make a move for another starter or may think ahead to replace the retiring Chipper Jones at third. The Mets are 3.5 games behind and are on the fence. They could use help in the line up, especially in power numbers, and on the pitching staff. The Marlins are 9 games out and potentially the biggest pre-season bust in the league after spending lavishly in the off season. However, that title may go to the Phils, who are mired 14 games behind Washington with little hope for a turnaround. The Phillies are actively seeking to trade FA Cole Hamels, which could lead to a fire sale of their other veterans like Victorino.
NL Central:
This division was always slated to be the weakest in the majors. The Pirates are in rarified air, in first, with a 48-37 record, one game up on Cincinnati. The Pirates have been looking to upgrade hitting in the infield and are always looking for another starter. Pittsburgh does not have the money to add a big money contract to the payroll which should limit their trade options. The Reds have a pretty solid line up, so pitching upgrades are a possibility. The Cardinals have been racked with injuries, but only 2.5 games out means they could trade for a veteran starter and hope for a Pittsburgh fade. The Brewers are on the fence at 8 games out. The team could ship Greinke for high level prospects in the right deal, or try to extend Greinke and trade Marcum to the pitching starved AL. The Cubs and the Astros are out of it, but the Cubs have the most trade bait (Dempster, Garza, Soriano, LaHair, Soto, DeJesus, etc. - - - everyone except Rizzo and Castro.) The Cubs should be the most active trade partner this year.
NL West:
In a traditional close boxing match most pundits predicted, the Giants and the Dodgers are battling it out for first. The Dodgers have a slim half game lead over their rivals. The Dodgers have been scouting Cubs starter Dempster for weeks. The Dodgers could also use a first base bat (LaHair?) and bullpen help. The Giants starting pitching has been less than expected (Lincecum has the worst ERA in the league) but San Francisco is always in need of a bat or two. The Diamondbacks are another team on the fence; 4 games behind the leader but as a small market team may pursue neutral small deals to ride out the season. The Padres and the Rockies are out of contention and should be aggressive sellers. The Padres have had much interest in Headley and Quentin so one would expect new ownership to allow management to pull the trigger on such deals.
AL East:
Yankees turned a slow start into a 52-33 record and a 7 game lead on Baltimore. The Rays are 7.5 games behind and the Red Sox are 9.5 games behind. Unless the Red Sox get on a post break hot streak, they may be Sellers like the Blue Jays. The Yankees need a starting pitcher or two to balance their strong offense. The Orioles are just happy to be near the top, but may not have the financial footing to make any big moves.
AL Central:
The White Sox used a squad of unheralded rookie pitchers to shore up their rotation and bullpen to grind out a 47-38 record and a 3 game lead on Cleveland. The favored Tigers are 3.5 games behind and the Royals and Twins are far off the pace. Cleveland is looking for a serious bat for their weak line up. The Tigers are scouting pitching and infield help. The White Sox deal for Youklis has had outstanding returns (14 RBI in 13 games and good defense at third). The Royals may be sellers for the right price and the Twins have a high priced core of underperforming stars so it hard to say if the Twins will do anything except stand pat and try again next season with the same cast.
AL West:
The Rangers have been the dominate team, from the pre-season moves to the present. At 52-34, Texas has a 4 game lead on the Pujols-Wilson big free agent payroll Angels. Oakland and Seattle are not in contention and could be major "blow up the roster" trade partners for prospects. The Rangers appear to only want to tweak their roster with upgrades in the bullpen or bench role players. The Angels have promoted from within with rookie Mike Trout as a potential superstar in the making so they may not have to make deals.
NL East:
The Nationals had been so bad for so long their high draft picks are finally panning out in a big way. The Nats are in first with a 49-34 record, 4 games ahead of Atlanta. The Nationals overstocked on starting pitching and may have a nice trade piece in Lannan (LHP) for a line-up changer. The Braves pitching has been inconsistent and their line up has been re-tooled to be better defensively. The Braves could make a move for another starter or may think ahead to replace the retiring Chipper Jones at third. The Mets are 3.5 games behind and are on the fence. They could use help in the line up, especially in power numbers, and on the pitching staff. The Marlins are 9 games out and potentially the biggest pre-season bust in the league after spending lavishly in the off season. However, that title may go to the Phils, who are mired 14 games behind Washington with little hope for a turnaround. The Phillies are actively seeking to trade FA Cole Hamels, which could lead to a fire sale of their other veterans like Victorino.
NL Central:
This division was always slated to be the weakest in the majors. The Pirates are in rarified air, in first, with a 48-37 record, one game up on Cincinnati. The Pirates have been looking to upgrade hitting in the infield and are always looking for another starter. Pittsburgh does not have the money to add a big money contract to the payroll which should limit their trade options. The Reds have a pretty solid line up, so pitching upgrades are a possibility. The Cardinals have been racked with injuries, but only 2.5 games out means they could trade for a veteran starter and hope for a Pittsburgh fade. The Brewers are on the fence at 8 games out. The team could ship Greinke for high level prospects in the right deal, or try to extend Greinke and trade Marcum to the pitching starved AL. The Cubs and the Astros are out of it, but the Cubs have the most trade bait (Dempster, Garza, Soriano, LaHair, Soto, DeJesus, etc. - - - everyone except Rizzo and Castro.) The Cubs should be the most active trade partner this year.
NL West:
In a traditional close boxing match most pundits predicted, the Giants and the Dodgers are battling it out for first. The Dodgers have a slim half game lead over their rivals. The Dodgers have been scouting Cubs starter Dempster for weeks. The Dodgers could also use a first base bat (LaHair?) and bullpen help. The Giants starting pitching has been less than expected (Lincecum has the worst ERA in the league) but San Francisco is always in need of a bat or two. The Diamondbacks are another team on the fence; 4 games behind the leader but as a small market team may pursue neutral small deals to ride out the season. The Padres and the Rockies are out of contention and should be aggressive sellers. The Padres have had much interest in Headley and Quentin so one would expect new ownership to allow management to pull the trigger on such deals.
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