One of the core philosophies of the new front office was stated that they were not going to pay "for past performance." Well, Epstein and Hoyer need to update their subscriptions to Baseball Digest, because they continue to sign players who had good years, maybe four years ago.
Current example is your new Cubs catcher, Dioner Navarro. I really never heard of him before this week. And there are plenty of reasons for that. Navarro is 28. He has kicked around for bits and pieces of nine seasons with 6 different teams.Journeyman, right. He landed in Tampa in 2007 and hit .227 in his first full year. But in 2008,in a contract year where he was paid the minimum, he suddenly hit .295, 7 HR, 54 RBI andgot an All Star selection from a very good Rays team.
That one season got him a payday: $2.1 million for 2009. After getting the deal, his batting average tanked to .218.His career average is .245. But he has only caught three seasons in the majors, the last being three years ago.
Now, he is also small, 5'9". I checked with a Tampa fan site who said he is both a below average hitter (problem with contact) AND a bad defensive catcher. In 2011 Tampa cut him. The Dodgers picked him up as a back up. He hit worse, .193 and was out of baseball in the minors for most of 2012 in the Reds system.
So, everyone is asking why in the hell did the Cubs pay Navarro, who only had a minimum minor league deal in 2012, $1.75 million guaranteed major league contract for 2013??
There is absolutely no evidence that Navarro is back to his 2008 batting form. Some people compare him to Koy Hill, which is pretty spot on for another below .200 hitting back slug. So why the huge contract for someone who punched his own ticket out of baseball?
Here are some troublesome alternatives:
First, Epstein has no concept of player value.
Second, Epstein cannot project a player's recent play into future play with any accuracy.
Third, Ricketts is not minding the cash register.
Or worse, fourth, that Epstein sees Navarro as the Cubs opening day catcher.
Most people pencil in Beef Castillo as the Cub catcher. He hit .265 in 52 games with 5 HR, 22 RBI. He had a 1.2 WAR. But his fielding was below average at .981. And he has the curse mark of being a Hendry draft choice. It is hard to fathom why the Cubs would pay a back-up catcher to Castillo more than three times what Beef will make in 2013 unless Navarro is going to be the starter.
November 16, 2012
WAR ON STATS
A favorite stat for people to debate the value of baseball players is WAR. WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement. A player's WAR number is supposed to represent the number of team wins the player has added to the team total above that of a AAA-AAAA replacement player. The calculation includes factors for defensive support and value for high leverage or more difficult positions and situations.
The components in the WAR calculation track how much above "average" a player was during a season. But the WAR number itself is Wins Above Replacement. It has been said that the difference between an average player and a replacement level player is about 20 runs during a full season. The runs-to-wins is put through a conversion formula (typically, 10 runs equals 1 win).
This is fine to attempt the judge the value of individual players in an average talent pool. But baseball is still a team sport relying upon individuals to get wins.
Which led me to check on the 2012 season from a team perspective.
The San Francisco Giants won the World Series. The regular season record was 94-68. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
28.9 hitter WAR + 5.5 pitcher WAR = 34.4 team WAR.
Then the question, what is an "average" baseball team? In a 162 game season, it is simple. A team that goes .500 (81-81) is average. Two teams ended 2012 at .500: Arizona and Philadelphia.
The Diamondbacks season record was 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
17.7 hitter WAR + 13.3 pitcher WAR = 31.0 team WAR.
The Phils also finished the season 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
15.0 hitter WAR + 10.8 pitcher WAR = 25.8 team WAR.
If we compare the World Series champion Giants to the Diamondbacks and Phils team WARS, the Giants team was +3.4 WAR better than Arizona and +8.6 WAR better than Philadelphia.
Since we have "two" average teams, if we average the team WARs (56.8/2) the average team WAR is 28.4. If you compare the average team WAR of 28.4 to the Giants team 34.4, one can calculate that the Giants as a team were 21 percent better than an average major league team in 2012.
If you compare that to victories, the Giants were +13, or 16 percent above an average .500 team.
Now for the other end of the standings.
The Chicago Cubs had a bad rebuilding season. The team 2012 record was 61-101. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers for the Cubs you will find:
11.8 hitter WAR + (0.1) pitcher WAR = 11.7 team WAR.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the Giants team WAR of 34.4, the Cubs are -22.7 WAR. That means the Cubs were 66 percent worse than the Giants.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the average .500 club WAR of 28.4 WAR, the Cubs are -16.7. That means the Cubs were 58.8 percent worse than an average team in 2012.
So how far are the Cubs away from being a competitive ball club?
The WAR scale for players indicates that one who is 8.0 WAR plus is an MVP type player; 5.0 WAR plus is an All-Star caliber player; 2.0 WAR plus is a starter; 0-2 WAR is a bench player; and below 0 is replacement level.
The highest WAR player on the roster is Darwin Barney at 4.6, then Starlin Castro at 3.5, then Ryan Dempster at 3.3 (who is no longer on the team) and then Anthony Rizzo at 2.2. Barney's WAR has to be skewed by his defense error less streak. Even so, based on the WAR player scale, the Cubs only have three starters on their 25 man roster, and not one is of All-Star caliber.
In order for the Cubs to competitive, the team needs double digit WAR numbers for hitting and pitching. The team needs to add 11 players of 2.0 WAR and above (6 fielders and 5 starters) just to become an average team in 2013.
The components in the WAR calculation track how much above "average" a player was during a season. But the WAR number itself is Wins Above Replacement. It has been said that the difference between an average player and a replacement level player is about 20 runs during a full season. The runs-to-wins is put through a conversion formula (typically, 10 runs equals 1 win).
This is fine to attempt the judge the value of individual players in an average talent pool. But baseball is still a team sport relying upon individuals to get wins.
Which led me to check on the 2012 season from a team perspective.
The San Francisco Giants won the World Series. The regular season record was 94-68. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
28.9 hitter WAR + 5.5 pitcher WAR = 34.4 team WAR.
Then the question, what is an "average" baseball team? In a 162 game season, it is simple. A team that goes .500 (81-81) is average. Two teams ended 2012 at .500: Arizona and Philadelphia.
The Diamondbacks season record was 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
17.7 hitter WAR + 13.3 pitcher WAR = 31.0 team WAR.
The Phils also finished the season 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
15.0 hitter WAR + 10.8 pitcher WAR = 25.8 team WAR.
If we compare the World Series champion Giants to the Diamondbacks and Phils team WARS, the Giants team was +3.4 WAR better than Arizona and +8.6 WAR better than Philadelphia.
Since we have "two" average teams, if we average the team WARs (56.8/2) the average team WAR is 28.4. If you compare the average team WAR of 28.4 to the Giants team 34.4, one can calculate that the Giants as a team were 21 percent better than an average major league team in 2012.
If you compare that to victories, the Giants were +13, or 16 percent above an average .500 team.
Now for the other end of the standings.
The Chicago Cubs had a bad rebuilding season. The team 2012 record was 61-101. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers for the Cubs you will find:
11.8 hitter WAR + (0.1) pitcher WAR = 11.7 team WAR.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the Giants team WAR of 34.4, the Cubs are -22.7 WAR. That means the Cubs were 66 percent worse than the Giants.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the average .500 club WAR of 28.4 WAR, the Cubs are -16.7. That means the Cubs were 58.8 percent worse than an average team in 2012.
So how far are the Cubs away from being a competitive ball club?
The WAR scale for players indicates that one who is 8.0 WAR plus is an MVP type player; 5.0 WAR plus is an All-Star caliber player; 2.0 WAR plus is a starter; 0-2 WAR is a bench player; and below 0 is replacement level.
The highest WAR player on the roster is Darwin Barney at 4.6, then Starlin Castro at 3.5, then Ryan Dempster at 3.3 (who is no longer on the team) and then Anthony Rizzo at 2.2. Barney's WAR has to be skewed by his defense error less streak. Even so, based on the WAR player scale, the Cubs only have three starters on their 25 man roster, and not one is of All-Star caliber.
In order for the Cubs to competitive, the team needs double digit WAR numbers for hitting and pitching. The team needs to add 11 players of 2.0 WAR and above (6 fielders and 5 starters) just to become an average team in 2013.
November 15, 2012
MIAMI MESS
There is almost universal outrage over the Miami Marlins trading away most of their veteran players only after one season in a brand new, state of the art public ball park.
The baseball team got a sweetheart new stadium. It got a 46% boost in attendance in 2012. More revenue. Big market dreams. All which imploded by mid-season.
Then the owner dumps $185 million in salaries of high priced veterans. By the end of next year, the Marlins will have no guaranteed contracts on their books.
It is not the first time owner Jeff Loria ruined a franchise. He killed the Montreal Expos,which led to the league taking over the team and moving it to Washington D.C. But Loria was rewarded by the league with a new Florida franchise.
Many people call the whole South Florida timeline a fraud, a scam and a sham. The taxpayers are on the hook for $2.4 billion in bond expenses for what is morally bankrupt team. But the public officials entrusted with tax dollars never had to give the Marlins a dime. The vast majority of sports economists will state that public subsidized stadiums are really bad deals for taxpayers. It does not help the local economy. It does not spur redevelopment. It merely lines the pockets of the team ownership. There is plenty of blame to go around Miami.
But the public is told that a pro team cannot be competitive or survive without a huge amount of corporate welfare. But look at the San Francisco Giants situation: that owner built his own new stadium with his own money. It was hard, but he survived. And the Giants just won the World Series. So it is possible that win without massive government subsidies.
The baseball team got a sweetheart new stadium. It got a 46% boost in attendance in 2012. More revenue. Big market dreams. All which imploded by mid-season.
Then the owner dumps $185 million in salaries of high priced veterans. By the end of next year, the Marlins will have no guaranteed contracts on their books.
It is not the first time owner Jeff Loria ruined a franchise. He killed the Montreal Expos,which led to the league taking over the team and moving it to Washington D.C. But Loria was rewarded by the league with a new Florida franchise.
Many people call the whole South Florida timeline a fraud, a scam and a sham. The taxpayers are on the hook for $2.4 billion in bond expenses for what is morally bankrupt team. But the public officials entrusted with tax dollars never had to give the Marlins a dime. The vast majority of sports economists will state that public subsidized stadiums are really bad deals for taxpayers. It does not help the local economy. It does not spur redevelopment. It merely lines the pockets of the team ownership. There is plenty of blame to go around Miami.
But the public is told that a pro team cannot be competitive or survive without a huge amount of corporate welfare. But look at the San Francisco Giants situation: that owner built his own new stadium with his own money. It was hard, but he survived. And the Giants just won the World Series. So it is possible that win without massive government subsidies.
November 14, 2012
EPIC DEAL
The Blue Jays own website called the proposed deal "epic."
Blue Jays General ManagerAlex Anthopoulos has never been afraid to make the big deals, but the one with the Marlins suddenly catapults Toronto to near the top of the AL East.
Toronto's general manager appears to have orchestrated a 12-player deal with the reeling Miami Marlins that provides a major boost to the club's chances of reaching the postseason. In one quick strike, the Blue Jays filled their holes in the starting rotation and acquired an elite hitter to place at the top of their lineup.
The blockbuster trade was first reported by Foxsports.com and sees shortstop Jose Reyes, right-hander Josh Johnson, left-hander Mark Buehrle, catcher John Buck and utility player Emilio Bonifacio headed to the Blue Jays.
The demolition Marlins are to receive seven young players in return: shortstop Yunel Escobar, right-hander Henderson Alvarez, Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechavarria, outfield prospect Jake Marisnick, pitching prospects Anthony Desclafani and Justin Nicolino and veteran backup catcher Jeff Mathis.
The deal is pending player physicals and MLB approval of money to be exchanged between the teams.
Clearly, the Marlins have been in salary dump mode since their touted season in a new publicly financed stadium under a new world series pedigree manager Ozzie Guillen crashed and burned on take off. The small market Marlins suddenly spent huge sums on free agents such as Buerhle, Reyes, Heath Bell - - - cracking the $100 million payroll for the first time. But the team quickly fell to the bottom, and ownership was arguing with team executives at the end. The fire sale started before the end of last season with the trade of unhappy Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers. Now, the completion of the dismantling of the team is apparent with the Blue Jays deal.
With the deal, the Blue Jays will take on upwards of $165 million in salaries. It's by far the highest guaranteed salary trade the Blue Jays have made during their existence in Major League Baseball.
Toronto was always interested in Reyes, who has five years remaining at a total of $96 million. He would give the Blue Jays a traditional leadoff hitter for the first time in recent memory and will allow the club to move third baseman Brett Lawrie down in the order.
Reyes is coming off a season in which he hit .287 with 11 homers and 57 RBIs in 160 games. He is just one season removed from winning the National League batting crown with a .337 average and would now play a pivotal role in Toronto's lineup by attempting to get on base for sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.
The presence of Johnson and Buehrle in the deal would fill a couple of glaring holes in Toronto's starting rotation. The two proven arms would join Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero in the starting five, while J.A. Happ would become the early favorite to win the final spot.
Johnson has just one year and $13.75 million remaining on his contract and is set to hit free agency following the 2013 campaign. Last year, Johnson went 8-14 with a 3.81 ERA during a somewhat inconsistent campaign, but he has the type of potential to be a bonafide front-of-the-rotation starter. From 2009-2011, Johnson went 29-12 with a remarkable 2.64 ERA in 70 starts.
Buehrle, 33, is the former White Sox ace. He is a consistent innings eater. He signed a four-year free agent contract worth $58 million with the Marlins to follow his manager, Guillen, to Miami, but now finds himself relocating for the second time in just two years. Last season, Buehrle went 13-13 with a 3.74 ERA in 31 starts.
The Marlins are to receive quality prospects. Marisnick (No. 2) and Hechavarria (No. 7) were both ranked among the Blue Jays top 20 prospects by MLB.com, while DeSclafani would have been a candidate to crack that list in 2013.
Alvarez, 22, was once considered one of Toronto's best pitching prospects, but he took a noticeable step back in 2012. He went just 9-14 with a 4.85 ERA and the lack of a consistent third pitch helped offset an otherwise overpowering fastball in the high 90s and a changeup combination.
The deal also provides a fresh start to Escobar, who received a three-game suspension for a racial slur, which only added to the disappointment of a frustrating season that saw him hit just .253 in 145 games. However, he is an above average defensive shortstop.
Mathis' inclusion in the deal had as much to do with Toronto's catching depth than anything else. The Blue Jays already have J.P. Arencibia entrenched as the club's starting catcher, while top prospect Travis d'Arnaud is waiting in the wings at Triple-A.
Buck could help the Blue Jays remain even more patient with d'Arnaud while backing up Arencibia, but there's an even stronger likelihood that Anthopoulos isn't done dealing and will eventually move another catcher. Or Buck could be moved in a trade to restock the Toronto farm system at a later time.
For the past couple of years, the Blue Jays front office talked at great length about the upside of Toronto's baseball market. President Paul Beeston envisioned one day of having a payroll around $150 million, but it always came with the caveat that attendance would have to increase first.
That finally happened in 2012, as Toronto increased its ticket sales by more than 3,000 per game. The Blue Jays ranked third in attendance with 2,099,663, which was their highest total since 2008.
Clearly, the Blue Jays are going "all in" in 2013 with the aging Yankees losing several players in the off-season and the Red Sox still in turmoil (after their blockbuster salary dump trade with the Dodgers). The Blue Jays now project to be #2 in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays.
Blue Jays General ManagerAlex Anthopoulos has never been afraid to make the big deals, but the one with the Marlins suddenly catapults Toronto to near the top of the AL East.
Toronto's general manager appears to have orchestrated a 12-player deal with the reeling Miami Marlins that provides a major boost to the club's chances of reaching the postseason. In one quick strike, the Blue Jays filled their holes in the starting rotation and acquired an elite hitter to place at the top of their lineup.
The blockbuster trade was first reported by Foxsports.com and sees shortstop Jose Reyes, right-hander Josh Johnson, left-hander Mark Buehrle, catcher John Buck and utility player Emilio Bonifacio headed to the Blue Jays.
The demolition Marlins are to receive seven young players in return: shortstop Yunel Escobar, right-hander Henderson Alvarez, Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechavarria, outfield prospect Jake Marisnick, pitching prospects Anthony Desclafani and Justin Nicolino and veteran backup catcher Jeff Mathis.
The deal is pending player physicals and MLB approval of money to be exchanged between the teams.
Clearly, the Marlins have been in salary dump mode since their touted season in a new publicly financed stadium under a new world series pedigree manager Ozzie Guillen crashed and burned on take off. The small market Marlins suddenly spent huge sums on free agents such as Buerhle, Reyes, Heath Bell - - - cracking the $100 million payroll for the first time. But the team quickly fell to the bottom, and ownership was arguing with team executives at the end. The fire sale started before the end of last season with the trade of unhappy Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers. Now, the completion of the dismantling of the team is apparent with the Blue Jays deal.
With the deal, the Blue Jays will take on upwards of $165 million in salaries. It's by far the highest guaranteed salary trade the Blue Jays have made during their existence in Major League Baseball.
Toronto was always interested in Reyes, who has five years remaining at a total of $96 million. He would give the Blue Jays a traditional leadoff hitter for the first time in recent memory and will allow the club to move third baseman Brett Lawrie down in the order.
Reyes is coming off a season in which he hit .287 with 11 homers and 57 RBIs in 160 games. He is just one season removed from winning the National League batting crown with a .337 average and would now play a pivotal role in Toronto's lineup by attempting to get on base for sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.
The presence of Johnson and Buehrle in the deal would fill a couple of glaring holes in Toronto's starting rotation. The two proven arms would join Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero in the starting five, while J.A. Happ would become the early favorite to win the final spot.
Johnson has just one year and $13.75 million remaining on his contract and is set to hit free agency following the 2013 campaign. Last year, Johnson went 8-14 with a 3.81 ERA during a somewhat inconsistent campaign, but he has the type of potential to be a bonafide front-of-the-rotation starter. From 2009-2011, Johnson went 29-12 with a remarkable 2.64 ERA in 70 starts.
Buehrle, 33, is the former White Sox ace. He is a consistent innings eater. He signed a four-year free agent contract worth $58 million with the Marlins to follow his manager, Guillen, to Miami, but now finds himself relocating for the second time in just two years. Last season, Buehrle went 13-13 with a 3.74 ERA in 31 starts.
The Marlins are to receive quality prospects. Marisnick (No. 2) and Hechavarria (No. 7) were both ranked among the Blue Jays top 20 prospects by MLB.com, while DeSclafani would have been a candidate to crack that list in 2013.
Alvarez, 22, was once considered one of Toronto's best pitching prospects, but he took a noticeable step back in 2012. He went just 9-14 with a 4.85 ERA and the lack of a consistent third pitch helped offset an otherwise overpowering fastball in the high 90s and a changeup combination.
The deal also provides a fresh start to Escobar, who received a three-game suspension for a racial slur, which only added to the disappointment of a frustrating season that saw him hit just .253 in 145 games. However, he is an above average defensive shortstop.
Mathis' inclusion in the deal had as much to do with Toronto's catching depth than anything else. The Blue Jays already have J.P. Arencibia entrenched as the club's starting catcher, while top prospect Travis d'Arnaud is waiting in the wings at Triple-A.
Buck could help the Blue Jays remain even more patient with d'Arnaud while backing up Arencibia, but there's an even stronger likelihood that Anthopoulos isn't done dealing and will eventually move another catcher. Or Buck could be moved in a trade to restock the Toronto farm system at a later time.
For the past couple of years, the Blue Jays front office talked at great length about the upside of Toronto's baseball market. President Paul Beeston envisioned one day of having a payroll around $150 million, but it always came with the caveat that attendance would have to increase first.
That finally happened in 2012, as Toronto increased its ticket sales by more than 3,000 per game. The Blue Jays ranked third in attendance with 2,099,663, which was their highest total since 2008.
Clearly, the Blue Jays are going "all in" in 2013 with the aging Yankees losing several players in the off-season and the Red Sox still in turmoil (after their blockbuster salary dump trade with the Dodgers). The Blue Jays now project to be #2 in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays.
November 13, 2012
NEW BAKER MAN
The Cubs have gone back to scrap heap of injured pitchers to try to find lightning in a bottle.
The Cubs signed Scott Baker to a one-year contract. Baker sat out all of the 2012 season due to Tommy John surgery.
Before 2012, he spent time with the Minnesota Twins.
Baker, 31, has career numbers over 7 years of 63 wins, 48 losses, 4.15 ERA in 159 starts. He has a career 1.264 WHIP and 3.44 K/BB ratio.
His best season was 2009, when he went 15-9, 4.37 ERA in 200 IP.
In 2012, on the DL, he made $6.5 million.
Twins fans believed that it was a foregone conclusion that the Twins would decline Baker's contract option, but quickly re-sign him to a new contract. The Twins are in need of pitching, and have a known quantity with Baker. The only way Baker would leave the Twins, fans thought, was if he was offered a 2 or 3 year contract elsewhere. Apparently, the Twins front office decided not to match Baker's 1 year offer from the Cubs, which may not raise a red flag, but put it on the rope of the flag pole.
Baker is automatically penciled in to take Volstad's slot in the rotation. A rotation that is still in the state of flux. Matt Garza is the default number one, pending recovery from injury. Jeff Samardzija is slated as the number two starter. Travis Wood is the only lefty with experience so he moves up to the number three starter. Baker becomes your default number four pitcher, pending recovery from injury. And the Cubs are praying that Adrodys Vizcaino can recover from his injury to join the rotation sooner than later. So the Cubs have 3 of their 5 starting pitchers (60%) coming back from significant injuries. That appears to be the new team pitching standard.
Baker is the second Twin pitcher taken by the Cubs. Earlier, the Cubs claimed injured AAA reliever Carlos Gutierrez.
The Cubs signed Scott Baker to a one-year contract. Baker sat out all of the 2012 season due to Tommy John surgery.
Before 2012, he spent time with the Minnesota Twins.
Baker, 31, has career numbers over 7 years of 63 wins, 48 losses, 4.15 ERA in 159 starts. He has a career 1.264 WHIP and 3.44 K/BB ratio.
His best season was 2009, when he went 15-9, 4.37 ERA in 200 IP.
In 2012, on the DL, he made $6.5 million.
Twins fans believed that it was a foregone conclusion that the Twins would decline Baker's contract option, but quickly re-sign him to a new contract. The Twins are in need of pitching, and have a known quantity with Baker. The only way Baker would leave the Twins, fans thought, was if he was offered a 2 or 3 year contract elsewhere. Apparently, the Twins front office decided not to match Baker's 1 year offer from the Cubs, which may not raise a red flag, but put it on the rope of the flag pole.
Baker is automatically penciled in to take Volstad's slot in the rotation. A rotation that is still in the state of flux. Matt Garza is the default number one, pending recovery from injury. Jeff Samardzija is slated as the number two starter. Travis Wood is the only lefty with experience so he moves up to the number three starter. Baker becomes your default number four pitcher, pending recovery from injury. And the Cubs are praying that Adrodys Vizcaino can recover from his injury to join the rotation sooner than later. So the Cubs have 3 of their 5 starting pitchers (60%) coming back from significant injuries. That appears to be the new team pitching standard.
Baker is the second Twin pitcher taken by the Cubs. Earlier, the Cubs claimed injured AAA reliever Carlos Gutierrez.
November 12, 2012
DODGER DAWGS
The Dodgers won the expensive ($25.7 million) posting fee for Korean LHP Ryu. The Dodgers have 30 days to reach a deal with Ryu's agent, Scott Boras.
The Dodgers have spent like drunken sailors since the new owners came on board after the McCourt bankruptcy/MLB litigation. The engine for the spending is a new multi-billion local television deal.
But are the Dodgers spending themselves into "baseball bankruptcy?" The team is saddled with high price, multi-year contracts for aging veterans.
In 2013, the Dodgers are already committed to spend $189 million on 18 players. Add in the buyout numbers for Manny Ramirez, Andrew Jones, H. Kuroda , Gwynn Jr. and other players, the 2013 payroll stands at a lofty $204.5 million.
Adding an expensive Ryu to the equation (Boras is looking for a "short term" deal, 2 year contract, which makes the posting fee proration giagantic) raises financial concerns. How can the Dodgers continue to add big money players?
Starting pitchers under contract (salary plus * multiyear): Josh Beckett (17*), Chad Billingsly (11*), Chris Capuano (6*), Clayton Kershaw (11 *), Aaron Harang (7 *) and Ted Lilly (13.5). The team already has six starting pitchers making $65.5 million. To sign Ryu, the 2013 starting staff pushes past $100 million.
Some will argue that the Dodgers are pitcher rich in a market that seeks out starting pitcher. The
Dodgers could always trade their surplus pitching for prospects. Except, most general managers today do not want to trade for pitchers with long term contracts, especially veteran starters who tend to break down with age and IP. Billingsly, Capuano and Harang seem to be possible trade bait at the winter meetings. It depends on whether Lilly has recovered from his injury.
There are some reports that the Dodgers may also make an offer for free agent Zach Greinke. It would seem nuclear overload to try to sign Greinke and Ryu in the same month.
The players and their agents like when one team decides it will try to buy a championship. It raises the salary structure for the entire league. But at some point in the near future, the team will be hampered by dead money contracts like Carl Crawford's.
The Dodgers have spent like drunken sailors since the new owners came on board after the McCourt bankruptcy/MLB litigation. The engine for the spending is a new multi-billion local television deal.
But are the Dodgers spending themselves into "baseball bankruptcy?" The team is saddled with high price, multi-year contracts for aging veterans.
In 2013, the Dodgers are already committed to spend $189 million on 18 players. Add in the buyout numbers for Manny Ramirez, Andrew Jones, H. Kuroda , Gwynn Jr. and other players, the 2013 payroll stands at a lofty $204.5 million.
Adding an expensive Ryu to the equation (Boras is looking for a "short term" deal, 2 year contract, which makes the posting fee proration giagantic) raises financial concerns. How can the Dodgers continue to add big money players?
Starting pitchers under contract (salary plus * multiyear): Josh Beckett (17*), Chad Billingsly (11*), Chris Capuano (6*), Clayton Kershaw (11 *), Aaron Harang (7 *) and Ted Lilly (13.5). The team already has six starting pitchers making $65.5 million. To sign Ryu, the 2013 starting staff pushes past $100 million.
Some will argue that the Dodgers are pitcher rich in a market that seeks out starting pitcher. The
Dodgers could always trade their surplus pitching for prospects. Except, most general managers today do not want to trade for pitchers with long term contracts, especially veteran starters who tend to break down with age and IP. Billingsly, Capuano and Harang seem to be possible trade bait at the winter meetings. It depends on whether Lilly has recovered from his injury.
There are some reports that the Dodgers may also make an offer for free agent Zach Greinke. It would seem nuclear overload to try to sign Greinke and Ryu in the same month.
The players and their agents like when one team decides it will try to buy a championship. It raises the salary structure for the entire league. But at some point in the near future, the team will be hampered by dead money contracts like Carl Crawford's.
November 10, 2012
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