In politics, the term is called "spin." Candidate handlers tout explanations to the media to get a favorable reaction in the press. In baseball, the same management spin is used to propagandize organizational moves as being needed to great.
When Epstein and Hoyer made their first collective moves, a large portion of the fan base was supportive. However, the key explanation on why they acquired David DeJesus and Ian Stewart is wrong. They said they acquired these two players to improve overall team defense. This statement was to direct attention away from the fact that both DeJesus and Stewart were coming off career WORST seasons.
The Cubs made their point that the team had to upgrade their defense in order to be competitive. But how important is defense at the major league level?
Tampa Bay led the majors in fielding percentage at .988 (committing only 73 errors). The median team, Detroit, was 15th with 103 errors or fielding percentage of .983. Dead last was the Cubs, committing 134 errors for a .978 fielding percentage. The difference between the Rays and Cubs is a mere .010 (one percent).
The minimum differential between the best team and the worst team is a mere fraction. The reason is simple: pro athletes can catch and throw the baseball once they hit the majors. There is no substantial difference between 25 man rosters over a season. And from the average, the Cubs were only .005, or one-half of one percent worse.
The perception was that the Cubs made errors at the wrong time and cost them games. Let us test this thesis:
In 2011, 8.6 percent of the runs scored in the majors were "unearned." The MLB team average for runs scored was 694. 694 times .086 equals approximately 60 unearned runs/season for an average team. If you divide 60 errors over 162 games, you get .370 unearned runs/game.
The MLB average for team errors was 102. 102 divided by 162 games equals .630 errors/game.
The ratio between E/G to UNR/G is .587, or 58.7 percent of the errors created an unearned run.
Based upon this error to unearned run ratio, the Cubs made 134 errors times .587 equals 78.65 or an expected 79 unearned runs charged to the Cubs in 2011. However, the actual runs allowed (756) minus actual earned runs allowed (690) equals only 66 unearned runs. This is 16.45 percent below the expected average.
Therefore, the Cubs "poor" defense did not lead to more unearned runs being scored.
The Cubs new players were labeled as improvements to "increase defensive" play. This is also not true. A comparison of last season's fielding statistics will show:
DeJesus RF Oak .983 replaces Fukudome RF .987
OF Oak . 984 Colvin RF .987 (all OF .991)
DeJesus is an average fielder, while Fukudome and Colvin were both above average outfielders.
Stewart 3B Colo .929 replaces A. Ramirez 3B .953
(6 E in 85 chances) (14 E in 298 chances)
Stewart and Ramirez were both below average fielders, but Ramirez was .024 better.
So, DeJesus and Stewart are not defensive upgrades over last year's Cub players.
And the final point, fans were told that "defense" wins championships. World Series champion St. Louis made 116 errors and ranked 27th with a .982 fielding percentage. Pitching and hitting are more important than defense because the major league differential between teams is so small to not be consequential over a season.
