April 27, 2012

PRODUCTIVE OUTS

A team only has 27 outs per game. An out is a valuable commodity. Thirty years ago, managers and players stressed the value of a "productive out," something on the field which helped the team as a whole score runs.

But in the statistic era of the sport, players are more concerned about individual stats for their arbitration hearings or free agency market comparisons. Outs are not considered good leverage at the bargaining table.

In theory, a team can score 9 runs per game without getting a single hit.
Walk. Stolen Base. Fielder's choice or sacrifice to move runner to third. Sacrifice fly scores runner at third. It is counter intuitive to have a team batting average zero but score 9 runs.

There is less emphasis on moving runners along or sacrifice hits. Bunting is a lost art.

If a team has an offense that averages .300, that equates to around 8 hits per 9 innings. That is why some managers try to stress bunching hits in one inning and hope for the Earl Weaver mantra: the three run HR.
But most teams do not have .300 hitters and power hitters throughout the line up. More like .250 hitters, which means between 6 or 7 hits per game. Timely hits needed, indeed.

In today's modern specialization, a newer productive out category could be the "long at-bat." With starting pitchers corralled at 100 pitches per game, a productive at bat would mean any series of more than 10 pitches (a full count equals minimally five pitches; the decider would be the sixth pitch). A batter that fouls off a series of pitches wears down the pitcher, most physically and mentally. If a team is patient and can make a starter throw 25-30 pitches in the first inning(s), they will be seeing a weaker bullpen pitcher by the fourth inning.  However, we rarely see long at-bats in the majors. Most players are looking to rip away at the first two pitches because mentally, they think the pitcher needs to get ahead in the count.

We only see glimpses of this philosophy in the late inning(s) in a one run game, where the team that is behind attempts to "manufacture" the tying run.  In most cases it does not work, because you are asking the hitters to dramatically change gears on their strategy in the batter's box that they had used he last 8 innings. Baseball is all about making little adjustments, not major leaps of faith or character.

It makes more sense to "manufacture" a run in the first inning than the 9th. How many teams have a lead off hitter willing to bunt for a base hit out of the gate? How many teams then have a number two batter willing to sacrifice himself (an out) to move the lead off man into scoring position? Not very many. Instead, teams just allow the players to go up and hack, not realizing that managing outs is just as important has getting hits.