September 11, 2012

100

With 21 games left in the season, the Cubs sole goal is not to lose 100 games. The "magic" number is 8 more wins. Playing the Astros helps that goal.

The Cubs have the reputation of being the Lovable Losers. But how many awful 100-loss seasons have there been in the franchise history? Surprisingly, only two.

In 1966, the Cubs went 59-103. In 1962, the Cubs also went 59-103.

Now, if those are rock bottom falls from grace, what happens in the next season? In 1967, the Cubs rebounded with a 87-74 record. In 1963, the Cubs improved to 82-80. In the financial world, one could call the next season success like a stock's "dead cat bounce."  It does not last very long.

On the flip side, how many 100 win seasons for the Cubs? The answer is five. But you have to go way back in a time machine to find them.

In 1935, the Cubs went 100-54, losing the World Series 4-2. The next year, the Cubs faded to 87-67.

In 1910, the Cubs went 104-50, losing the World Series 4-1. The next year, the Cubs went 92-62.

In 1909, the Cubs went 104-49.

In 1907, the Cubs won a record 107 games (107-45) and the World Series. The next year, 1908, the Cubs repeated as World Series champions with a record of 99-55.

In 1906, the Cubs went 116-36 but lost the World Series 4-2).

It is clear that a team that wins 100 games is more likely to continue its success in the next year. That makes sense since a team that wins 100 games must have a wealth of talented players performing well.  When a team loses 100 games, there is also a rebound but for a different reason. Players are a 100 loss club are not very good, and management needs "real" change in order to get fans into the stands. Roster turnover is probably the main reason for improvement for 100 loss clubs.

So when Cub players focus in on NOT losing 100 games, they are fighting against the perception of being on a 100-loss team (and probable loss of employment for the next season). But in order to improve a club, it must hit rock bottom.