Cubs GM Hoyer said today in the local papers that the Cubs have the budget flexibility to be active players in the free agent market this off season. The contracts of Zambrano, Dempster, Soto, Byrd and Maholm are off the books. There is estimated about a $30 million decrease in obligations heading into 2013.
But don't buy the statement that the Cubs will be active participants in big money free agents. There is nothing to gain by going for broke in the free agent market during a long rebuilding process. The idea that Hoyer is floating is a trial balloon to keep season ticket holders interested and renewing their packages. For an empty Wrigley Field will never draw the attention of would-be free agents.
The free agents the Cubs may sign are the second tier, journeymen types that they will attempt to flip at the trade deadline for more prospects. Maholm is a good example of a player acquired on a reasonable two year contract, traded to the Braves at the deadline for a younger starter (though coming off surgery).
The other reason the Cubs will not be big in free agency this winter is that the free agent class is thin. Besides the Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke or BJ Upton bidding, the market is weak. For example, here are the list from MLBR of the non-option free agent starting pitchers (age):
Erik Bedard (34)
Joe Blanton (32)
Bartolo Colon (40)
Aaron Cook (34)
Kevin Correia (32)
Ryan Dempster (36)
Jeff Francis (32)
Freddy Garcia (37)
Zack Greinke (28)
Jeremy Guthrie (34)
Rich Harden (31)
Edwin Jackson (29)
Hiroki Kuroda (38)
Francisco Liriano (29)
Kyle Lohse (34)
Derek Lowe (40)
Shaun Marcum (31)
Jason Marquis (34)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (32)
Brandon McCarthy (29)
Kevin Millwood (38)
Jamie Moyer (50)
Roy Oswalt (35)
Carl Pavano (37)
Anibal Sanchez (29)
Jonathan Sanchez (30)
Joe Saunders (32)
Ben Sheets (34)
Carlos Villanueva (29)
Chien-Ming Wang (33)
Kip Wells (36)
Randy Wolf (36)
Chris Young (34)
Carlos Zambrano (32)
There are very few $5 million/year middle starters in the list. And the Cubs will certainly not bring back Dempster or Zambrano.
