Even before throwing an actual or simulated game, manager Dale Sveum announced the Cubs starting 2013 rotation.
The top of the rotation are the two guys that are healthy: Jeff Samardzija and Edwin Jackson.
The third man in the staff is Matt Garza, who appears healthy after missing half of last season with an elbow injury.
Sveum gave the fourth spot in the rotation to Scott Feldman. Now, Feldman told the media when he signed with the Cubs that GM Hoyer had "promised" him a starting rotation spot after his demotion to the bullpen by the Rangers in 2012. I guess that promise was truly a binding obligation.
And the final starter role appears to go to Travis Wood, the only left hander starter in camp, by default. That moves swingman Carlos Villanueva to the bullpen for long relief and spot starter duties.
But the real news is that the other big free agent signing, Scott Baker, will not be ready for opening day. Baker is coming off Tommy John surgery. That is disappointing because Baker had the most WAR upside from his prime with the Twins.
So the opening day rotation is set (2012 stats):
1. Samardzija, 9-13, 3.81 ERA, 28 GS, 174.2 IP, 180 K, 80 BB, 79 RA, 1.219 WHIP, 1.6 WAR
2. E. Jackson, 10-11, 4.03 ERA, 31 GS, 189.2 IP, 168 K, 58 BB, 90 RA, 1.218 WHIP, 1.6 WAR
3. Garza, 5-7, 3.91 ERA, 18 GS, 103.2 IP, 96 K, 32 BB, 48 RA, 1.177 WHIP, 1.0 WAR
4. Feldman, 6-11, 5.09 ERA, 21 GS, 123.2 IP, 96 K, 32 BB, 79 RA, 1.383 WHIP, 0.0 WAR
5. T. Wood, 6-13, 4.27 ERA, 26 GS, 156 IP, 119 K, 54 BB, 80 RA, 1.199 WHIP, 0.6 WAR
From a WAR prospective, all these players are below a starter threshold of 2.0. Except for Feldman, they all fit into the WAR category of being a "reserve" player, which for pitchers are bullpen arms. Feldman projects out as a AAA replacement player.
So when the Cubs are saying that the goal for this season is to be a .500 ball club, a 33% improvement (20 more wins) from last season, it is hard to believe that this starting rotation can make up that much ground. The only saving grace is that four out of five pitchers last year had excellent control as stated in their WHIPs. But that did not translate well into wins, including Jackson, who was on a division championship caliber team last season on the Nationals.
