There is an earthquake type shift in front offices. The glory days of "ace" starting pitchers are going to start to fade . . . fast. Just like the NFL has caused the running back position to become a generic commodity in its pass-happy offenses, baseball is soon going to put less emphasis on starting rotations to win games.
The trend has been accelerating this year. A report indicated that the amount of innings pitched by MLB starters is down 37 percent. It means that starters are pitching more than 2 innings less than they did a decade ago. It is apparent when you watch games. It is now a rarity for a starter to pitch into the 7th inning. A generation ago, starters all took the mound with the one goal of tossing a complete game. Today, starters are content with finishing just 5 innings.
Teams are constructing their bullpens not as emergency help for faltering starters but as a machine to win games. During Kansas City's World Series runs, it developed a killer bullpen of three dominant, "shut down" arms in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. If the Royals were winning after 6, the game was over. The emphasis began to shift to the back three or four innings and not the front five.
Stats gurus have allegedly found that starting pitchers get hammered more when a batter sees them for the third time during a game. The logic is that the batter has now seen all the pitches of the starter so he can better anticipate what he will see. Also, the stat men found that the key innings in a game for a starter are the 2nd to 7th. Therefore, the Padres developed the concept of an "opener," a relief pitcher who would throw the first inning then give way to the starting pitcher. That means the starter will see the top of the opponent's order one less time during the game. This is how odd pitching metrics have gotten.
Closers used to be just mop up guys. Now, they are the highest paid bullpen pieces because for some mental reason, not every relief pitcher can get the last three outs in a game. Closers typically have one lights-out pitch; a 100 mph fastball, or a devastating fork ball. They are strike out pitchers. Teams now set up their bullpens just to get to the closer.
With starters only covering 5 innings, they are really no different than traditional "long" relievers who can spot start or throw 3 innings in a game. Long relievers are not paid as well as starters or closers. But in the new pitching playbook, they may become even more valuable.
Some teams without a decent fifth starter will result to having a "bullpen" day where long relievers will try to get 6 innings in the book before turning it over to the last three bullpen arms. In the near future, all teams may employ bullpen days for every game.
Teams are already carrying 12 or 13 pitchers on the 25 man roster. That is why so many teams, especially the Cubs, try to find bench players who can play multiple positions because they have very limited substitutes. The idea of expanding the roster to 26 players does not mean an extra bat will be added to help managers. Some teams are now employing the dual role of a pitcher/position player. The Reds have a relief pitcher who also can bat well and play the outfield. It is not usual for star pitchers to be the best player on their youth, high school or college teams. And it is not usual that they used to be the best hitter and fielder at multiple positions. But they lose part of the skill set when they just concentrate on pitching.
Even colleges are now concentrating on developing relief pitchers such as closers. In the past, Steve Stone remarked that all relief pitchers were "failed" starter. College World Series teams often have designated closers. Minor league systems now quickly separate prospects into starters and relievers as it is now just as important to find closers and long relievers.
Ownership has a vested stake in this new pitching philosophy. It should cost less payroll. the age of the $20-30 million starter will be over. Relief pitchers salaries have been going up recently, but closers usually top out around fifth starter money. If a team can save half of the starters annual salary, that is pure profit to the owners.
Showing posts with label rotation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rotation. Show all posts
August 3, 2019
July 27, 2018
MORE COLE IN YOUR STOCKING
The Cubs were forced to make a move. Tyler Chatwood had another aggravating outing of walking 6 batters and putting the team into an early, big deficit. Yu Darvish has been slow in his recovery to the point the team is now counting on a TJ-rehabber in Drew Smyly to make an impact in September.
So the Cubs made a trade for a second or third tier veteran starter in Cole Hamels. He has a no-hitter and a WS ring on his resume, but he has struggled for the Rangers this season. As MLBTR reports, the 34-year-old Hamels isn’t the ace that he once was, and he’s had his share of struggles in 2018 — albeit nearly all of them coming at his homer-happy home stadium in Arlington. Hamels is surrendering home runs at a career-worst rate, but it’s somewhat telling that 16 of the 23 round-trippers he’s yielded have come at Globe Life Park. Hamels has a 6.41 ERA, a 6.16 FIP and a 4.49 xFIP when pitching at home this season but a 2.93 ERA, 4.17 FIP and 3.83 xFIP on the road.
This is the same logic Theo used to justify signing Chatwood to a three year deal. Get him out of the hitter friendly Coors Field climate, and he will do great. It is apparent that throwing strikes or allowing home runs is not solely dependent on the climate.
The Cubs rotation, except for Lester, cannot get through five innings in any consistent manner. Hamels has to fit into the fourth or fifth starter role with the mentality of six plus innings in order to save the bullpen. Hendricks had another iffy outing, Quintana has had one quality start and two good ones in his last three, and Montgomery is hitting the wall by the fifth inning.
I suspect that Montgomery will move back into the bullpen as the long relief, emergency closer role from 2016. Hamels will be in the rotation until Darvish returns. Then the real decision has to be made: keep sending Chatwood out to the mound to wet the bed, or go to a six man rotation (which Lester opposes.) You cannot trust the lack of command in Chatwood to be a leveraged relief pitcher. You can't waste Hamels potential for eating early innings in the bullpen.
In 20 starts this year, Hamels is 5-9, 4.72 ERA, 1.373 WHIP, 0.8 WAR. He is averaging 5 2/3 IP per start. If he fits into the rotation, the Cubs could probably count on 10-12 more starts from him (which would be slightly better than Chatwood's numbers).
The Cubs gave up two minor league pitchers and a possible player-to-be-named later for Hamels. The Rangers will still eat most of the money owed to Hamels. Whether Hamels has anything left in the tank is the value of this trade.
So the Cubs made a trade for a second or third tier veteran starter in Cole Hamels. He has a no-hitter and a WS ring on his resume, but he has struggled for the Rangers this season. As MLBTR reports, the 34-year-old Hamels isn’t the ace that he once was, and he’s had his share of struggles in 2018 — albeit nearly all of them coming at his homer-happy home stadium in Arlington. Hamels is surrendering home runs at a career-worst rate, but it’s somewhat telling that 16 of the 23 round-trippers he’s yielded have come at Globe Life Park. Hamels has a 6.41 ERA, a 6.16 FIP and a 4.49 xFIP when pitching at home this season but a 2.93 ERA, 4.17 FIP and 3.83 xFIP on the road.
This is the same logic Theo used to justify signing Chatwood to a three year deal. Get him out of the hitter friendly Coors Field climate, and he will do great. It is apparent that throwing strikes or allowing home runs is not solely dependent on the climate.
The Cubs rotation, except for Lester, cannot get through five innings in any consistent manner. Hamels has to fit into the fourth or fifth starter role with the mentality of six plus innings in order to save the bullpen. Hendricks had another iffy outing, Quintana has had one quality start and two good ones in his last three, and Montgomery is hitting the wall by the fifth inning.
I suspect that Montgomery will move back into the bullpen as the long relief, emergency closer role from 2016. Hamels will be in the rotation until Darvish returns. Then the real decision has to be made: keep sending Chatwood out to the mound to wet the bed, or go to a six man rotation (which Lester opposes.) You cannot trust the lack of command in Chatwood to be a leveraged relief pitcher. You can't waste Hamels potential for eating early innings in the bullpen.
In 20 starts this year, Hamels is 5-9, 4.72 ERA, 1.373 WHIP, 0.8 WAR. He is averaging 5 2/3 IP per start. If he fits into the rotation, the Cubs could probably count on 10-12 more starts from him (which would be slightly better than Chatwood's numbers).
The Cubs gave up two minor league pitchers and a possible player-to-be-named later for Hamels. The Rangers will still eat most of the money owed to Hamels. Whether Hamels has anything left in the tank is the value of this trade.
July 25, 2018
SECOND HALF ISSUES
The Cubs surged into first before the AS break, but now have begun to wobble in the heat of July.
Kyle Hendricks is not the old Hendricks, a pinpoint professor in the art of pitching. Teams have finally figured him out. An 88 mph fastball is not his out pitch. Batters are now sitting on change ups that are in the hitting zone. As Hendricks relies more on off-speed stuff on the corners, umpires are taking away is major advantage by calling more balls. Patient hitters and smaller strike calls is making Hendricks an average pitcher. It could change if he uses his fastball more to keep the batters honest and off-guard.
Kris Bryant was pulled from the line-up because of his shoulder issue. He said before the ASG that it was an injury that he will have to deal with throughout the season. But word is that he cannot even swing the bat. That means a probable DL stint and the return of Bote at third. Having Bryant out of the line-up puts more pressure on Rizzo, who is trying to hit his way out of his own personal slump by leading off. But Maddon will have to move Rizzo out of the #1 spot to increase scoring chances if Bryant goes on the DL.
Yu Darvish is becoming a real bad issue. The Cubs were happy that Darvish yesterday threw 16 pitches off the mound after three weeks of rest. Sixteen pitches is not a start. It seems that Darvish's progress has been painstakingly slow. The front office is counting more on Drew Smyly coming off Tommy John surgery than Darvish. Montgomery was great when he first took Darvish's spot in the rotation, but now after a half dozen starts, he is falling back into being an average starter (which ironically is better than the Cubs original 4th and 5th starters).
Javy Baez is trying to do too much. He got throw out again for aggressive baserunning. He needs to calm down and let the team win games. Baez is the Cubs current MVP. He is the only true five tool player on the roster who can make exciting plays at the plate and in the field. But Baez has a history of coming unglued at the bat. Let us see if he has matured enough to adjust to his new leader-by-example role.
The bullpen was re-tooled in order to be ready for the post-season. Brandon Morrow was the new closer, and Maddon kept him on the light work load. But Morrow got hurt anyway (which is his M.O.). The rotation has been sub-par all year, with very few quality starts. More times than not, starters are barely throwing five innings - - - which taxes the bullpen to the extreme that now four different position players have thrown in relief. Jesse Chavez acquisition was needed to find a "rubber" arm veteran who can do long relief, short relief, close and spot start. But asking Chavez to be the bullpen godsend is asking too much.
The Cubs offense still runs in feast or famine mode. They score a lot of runs, or they score very little. Consistency in the batting order could be blamed for the hot and cold mentality, but Maddon would disagree. He wants to use his entire roster to keep them fresh and in the game. But since the ASG, he has literally given up midway through 2 games (for losses).
The Cubs probably need to make a big move at the trade deadline, but they do not have any great minor league prospects to trade. And Theo and Jed are in love with "their" guys to trade away Happ, Schwarber or Almora.
Kyle Hendricks is not the old Hendricks, a pinpoint professor in the art of pitching. Teams have finally figured him out. An 88 mph fastball is not his out pitch. Batters are now sitting on change ups that are in the hitting zone. As Hendricks relies more on off-speed stuff on the corners, umpires are taking away is major advantage by calling more balls. Patient hitters and smaller strike calls is making Hendricks an average pitcher. It could change if he uses his fastball more to keep the batters honest and off-guard.
Kris Bryant was pulled from the line-up because of his shoulder issue. He said before the ASG that it was an injury that he will have to deal with throughout the season. But word is that he cannot even swing the bat. That means a probable DL stint and the return of Bote at third. Having Bryant out of the line-up puts more pressure on Rizzo, who is trying to hit his way out of his own personal slump by leading off. But Maddon will have to move Rizzo out of the #1 spot to increase scoring chances if Bryant goes on the DL.
Yu Darvish is becoming a real bad issue. The Cubs were happy that Darvish yesterday threw 16 pitches off the mound after three weeks of rest. Sixteen pitches is not a start. It seems that Darvish's progress has been painstakingly slow. The front office is counting more on Drew Smyly coming off Tommy John surgery than Darvish. Montgomery was great when he first took Darvish's spot in the rotation, but now after a half dozen starts, he is falling back into being an average starter (which ironically is better than the Cubs original 4th and 5th starters).
Javy Baez is trying to do too much. He got throw out again for aggressive baserunning. He needs to calm down and let the team win games. Baez is the Cubs current MVP. He is the only true five tool player on the roster who can make exciting plays at the plate and in the field. But Baez has a history of coming unglued at the bat. Let us see if he has matured enough to adjust to his new leader-by-example role.
The bullpen was re-tooled in order to be ready for the post-season. Brandon Morrow was the new closer, and Maddon kept him on the light work load. But Morrow got hurt anyway (which is his M.O.). The rotation has been sub-par all year, with very few quality starts. More times than not, starters are barely throwing five innings - - - which taxes the bullpen to the extreme that now four different position players have thrown in relief. Jesse Chavez acquisition was needed to find a "rubber" arm veteran who can do long relief, short relief, close and spot start. But asking Chavez to be the bullpen godsend is asking too much.
The Cubs offense still runs in feast or famine mode. They score a lot of runs, or they score very little. Consistency in the batting order could be blamed for the hot and cold mentality, but Maddon would disagree. He wants to use his entire roster to keep them fresh and in the game. But since the ASG, he has literally given up midway through 2 games (for losses).
The Cubs probably need to make a big move at the trade deadline, but they do not have any great minor league prospects to trade. And Theo and Jed are in love with "their" guys to trade away Happ, Schwarber or Almora.
June 21, 2018
MODIFIED ROTATION
The Cubs continue to dance around first place in the NL Central without having consistent starting pitching from the back of the rotation.
Yu Darvish's injury has created multiple issues. Darvish was supposed to be the 1A or 1B starter this season. However, he has gotten off to a rocky start. Some people believe he is trying too hard to justify his large free agent contract. Others believe that the fan culture of a big American city is so different than in Japan that it has affected Darvish in a negative way.
Jon Lester has been the best pitcher on the staff, and maybe in the NL. In 15 starts , he is 9-2, 2.10 ERA in 90 IP with a stellar 2.6 WAR. He is averaging 6 IP/ start.
Darvish is on the opposite end of the spectrum. He has 8 starts with a 1-3 record, 4.95 ERA in 40 IP with a negative 0.3 WAR. He is only averaging 5 IP/start.
Kyle Hendricks has not had a breakout season. In his 14 starts, he is 5-6, 3.55 ERA in 83.2 IP with a 0.9 WAR. He is averaging just under 6 IP/start.
Jose Quintana is hovering around his White Sox stats: in 14 starts, he is 6-5 with 4.06 ERA and 0.0 WAR in 75 IP. He is only averaging 5 1/3 IP/start.
Tyler Chatwood is an enigma. He was an early signing for a lot of money to be a 5th starter. In his 14 starts, he is 3-5, 3.95 ERA in 68.1 IP. He is averaging 4 2/3 IP/start. His WHIP is an outrageous 1.727. He leads the league in walks allowed with 63 (Lester led the team in 2017 with 60 for an entire season).
However, swingman Mike Montgomery has been great as a starter. In his 5 starts, he has gone 2-1, with 1.21 ERA in 29.2 IP. He is 6th in strikeout rate, and 1st in not allowing walks. In his 23 appearances as a starter and reliever, he is 2-2, 3.11 ERA in 55 IP with a 0.9 WAR. He is averaging 6 IP/start.
Montgomery has earned a starting rotation spot. The question is what happens when Darvish gets back from the DL. Does Monty move back into the bullpen or does he stay as a permanent 6th starter. The front office is against having a 6 man rotation. But Maddon does not have Morrow who has back issues. The bullpen is getting burned out because starters cannot go deep into games.
This is the disturbing rotational fact. The starters are not eating innings:
Lester 6 IP/start
Hendricks 6 IP/start
Montgomery 6 IP/start
Quintana 5.1 IP/start
Darvish 5 IP/start
Chatwood 4.2 IP/start
The latter three starters bring into play using 4 relief pitchers in back to back games.
The Cubs still have several make-up games in this summer. A 6th starter like Montgomery is needed, but he needs to remain sharp and stretched out.
Maddon could use his match-up style and put Montgomery into a hybrid 6-man rotation. Keep Lester and Hendricks on their normal 5 day routine, but alternate an extra day for Darvish and Chatwood to plug in Montgomery against a left hand hitting lineup.
Yu Darvish's injury has created multiple issues. Darvish was supposed to be the 1A or 1B starter this season. However, he has gotten off to a rocky start. Some people believe he is trying too hard to justify his large free agent contract. Others believe that the fan culture of a big American city is so different than in Japan that it has affected Darvish in a negative way.
Jon Lester has been the best pitcher on the staff, and maybe in the NL. In 15 starts , he is 9-2, 2.10 ERA in 90 IP with a stellar 2.6 WAR. He is averaging 6 IP/ start.
Darvish is on the opposite end of the spectrum. He has 8 starts with a 1-3 record, 4.95 ERA in 40 IP with a negative 0.3 WAR. He is only averaging 5 IP/start.
Kyle Hendricks has not had a breakout season. In his 14 starts, he is 5-6, 3.55 ERA in 83.2 IP with a 0.9 WAR. He is averaging just under 6 IP/start.
Jose Quintana is hovering around his White Sox stats: in 14 starts, he is 6-5 with 4.06 ERA and 0.0 WAR in 75 IP. He is only averaging 5 1/3 IP/start.
Tyler Chatwood is an enigma. He was an early signing for a lot of money to be a 5th starter. In his 14 starts, he is 3-5, 3.95 ERA in 68.1 IP. He is averaging 4 2/3 IP/start. His WHIP is an outrageous 1.727. He leads the league in walks allowed with 63 (Lester led the team in 2017 with 60 for an entire season).
However, swingman Mike Montgomery has been great as a starter. In his 5 starts, he has gone 2-1, with 1.21 ERA in 29.2 IP. He is 6th in strikeout rate, and 1st in not allowing walks. In his 23 appearances as a starter and reliever, he is 2-2, 3.11 ERA in 55 IP with a 0.9 WAR. He is averaging 6 IP/start.
Montgomery has earned a starting rotation spot. The question is what happens when Darvish gets back from the DL. Does Monty move back into the bullpen or does he stay as a permanent 6th starter. The front office is against having a 6 man rotation. But Maddon does not have Morrow who has back issues. The bullpen is getting burned out because starters cannot go deep into games.
This is the disturbing rotational fact. The starters are not eating innings:
Lester 6 IP/start
Hendricks 6 IP/start
Montgomery 6 IP/start
Quintana 5.1 IP/start
Darvish 5 IP/start
Chatwood 4.2 IP/start
The latter three starters bring into play using 4 relief pitchers in back to back games.
The Cubs still have several make-up games in this summer. A 6th starter like Montgomery is needed, but he needs to remain sharp and stretched out.
Maddon could use his match-up style and put Montgomery into a hybrid 6-man rotation. Keep Lester and Hendricks on their normal 5 day routine, but alternate an extra day for Darvish and Chatwood to plug in Montgomery against a left hand hitting lineup.
February 12, 2018
YU ASKED FOR IT
The Cubs have now replaced starters Jake Arrieta and John Lackey with Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood.
Is it good enough?
The Astros won the World Series with a starting rotation that had the following performance:
Fiers 8-10, 5.22 ERA, -0.6 WAR
Morton 14-7, 3.62, 1.8 WAR
Kuechel 14-5, 2.90 ERA, 3.9 WAR
Peacock 13-2, 3.00 ERA, 3.0 WAR
McCullers 7-4, 4.25 ERA 0.9 WAR
Verlander 5-5, 1.06 ERA, 1.8 WAR.
Astros rotation core: 63 wins (of 101 total), 9.8 WAR.
The Cubs new rotation:
Lester, 13-8, 4.33 ERA, 1.0 WAR
Darvish 10-12, 3.86 ERA, 3.8 WAR
Hendricks 7-5, 3.03 ERA, 3.3 WAR
Quintana 11-11, 4.15 ERA, 2.2 WAR
Chatwood 8-15, 4.69 ERA, 2.1 WAR.
The Cubs rotation core: 49 wins, 12.4 WAR.
The key to the Astros success was the fact that they had four bullpen pitchers with ERAs under 3.00 who could close out games.
As for the Darvish contract, under the old WAR valuation standard, his 3.8 WAR equates to a value of $20.9 million/season. The Darvish contract averages $21 million per season. Apparently, the Cubs offered the 6th year to get under the luxury cap and to get the deal done. One could suspect that the Brewers and/or Twins offered Darvish $125 million so the Cubs upped the ante by only a small amount.
The Darvish deal does help stabilize the pitching rotation which is still extremely thin in the minors. Eddie Butler, who is out of options, may have to kept in the bullpen or be lost after spring training.
The Darvish signing keeps the Cubs as expected divisional champs in the NL Central.
Is it good enough?
The Astros won the World Series with a starting rotation that had the following performance:
Fiers 8-10, 5.22 ERA, -0.6 WAR
Morton 14-7, 3.62, 1.8 WAR
Kuechel 14-5, 2.90 ERA, 3.9 WAR
Peacock 13-2, 3.00 ERA, 3.0 WAR
McCullers 7-4, 4.25 ERA 0.9 WAR
Verlander 5-5, 1.06 ERA, 1.8 WAR.
Astros rotation core: 63 wins (of 101 total), 9.8 WAR.
The Cubs new rotation:
Lester, 13-8, 4.33 ERA, 1.0 WAR
Darvish 10-12, 3.86 ERA, 3.8 WAR
Hendricks 7-5, 3.03 ERA, 3.3 WAR
Quintana 11-11, 4.15 ERA, 2.2 WAR
Chatwood 8-15, 4.69 ERA, 2.1 WAR.
The Cubs rotation core: 49 wins, 12.4 WAR.
The key to the Astros success was the fact that they had four bullpen pitchers with ERAs under 3.00 who could close out games.
As for the Darvish contract, under the old WAR valuation standard, his 3.8 WAR equates to a value of $20.9 million/season. The Darvish contract averages $21 million per season. Apparently, the Cubs offered the 6th year to get under the luxury cap and to get the deal done. One could suspect that the Brewers and/or Twins offered Darvish $125 million so the Cubs upped the ante by only a small amount.
The Darvish deal does help stabilize the pitching rotation which is still extremely thin in the minors. Eddie Butler, who is out of options, may have to kept in the bullpen or be lost after spring training.
The Darvish signing keeps the Cubs as expected divisional champs in the NL Central.
May 3, 2017
THE ROTATION
Pitching coaches will often say in spring training that you have to wait five regular season games to tell how well your starting pitchers are going to be for the season.
The Cubs have reached that point. It is not pretty.
The starting rotation after 16% of their season complete is not on pace to be an average starter.
Lackey: 2-3, 5.10 ERA, 30 IP, 9 BB, 1.333 WHIP -0.3 WAR
Lester: 0-1, 3.68 ERA, 29.1 IP, 9 BB, 1.432 WHIP 0.3 WAR
Arrieta: 3-1, 4.66 ERA, 29 IP, 8 BB, 1.310 WHIP, -0.1 WAR
Hendricks: 2-1, 4.18 ERA, 28 IP, 12 BB, 1.214 WHIP, 0.2 WAR
Anderson: 2-1, 6.23 ERA, 21.2 IP, 12 BB, 1.846 ERA, -0.5 WAR
The starting rotation has accumulated a total negative 0.4 WAR.
It is the high ERA and high walk totals that is killing the rotation.
The Cubs have reached that point. It is not pretty.
The starting rotation after 16% of their season complete is not on pace to be an average starter.
Lackey: 2-3, 5.10 ERA, 30 IP, 9 BB, 1.333 WHIP -0.3 WAR
Lester: 0-1, 3.68 ERA, 29.1 IP, 9 BB, 1.432 WHIP 0.3 WAR
Arrieta: 3-1, 4.66 ERA, 29 IP, 8 BB, 1.310 WHIP, -0.1 WAR
Hendricks: 2-1, 4.18 ERA, 28 IP, 12 BB, 1.214 WHIP, 0.2 WAR
Anderson: 2-1, 6.23 ERA, 21.2 IP, 12 BB, 1.846 ERA, -0.5 WAR
The starting rotation has accumulated a total negative 0.4 WAR.
It is the high ERA and high walk totals that is killing the rotation.
March 9, 2017
PITCHING STAFF
The only key spot left for discussion is the Cubs' fifth starter.
The main rotation is set: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey.
The fifth starter spot will go to Mike Montgomery or Brett Anderson. Montgomery showed his versatility coming out of the bullpen in different situations. But at the end of the season, he was semi-promised to return to the rotation. But with the Cubs organizational starting depth weak, the Cubs signed oft-injured Anderson to compete for a position.
It is still early in camp, but the numbers after 2 games played:
Montgomery: 0-1, 2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP
Anderson: 1-0, 3 IP, 6.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Joe Maddon has said that he could use both Montgomery and Anderson in hybrid pitching roles.
"The big thing with both of them (is) neither one has really been stretched out anywhere close to 200 innings over the last couple years. So we're thinking it's almost like a hybrid moment. Maybe fold one back into the bullpen while the other one starts. And vice versa. Or just jump a sixth guy in there now and then to keep the other guys from being overworked too early," Maddon said.
"It's in theory right now. We haven't actually laid it down on paper. We feel pretty fortunate. If everybody stays healthy, you got six guys that you like right there. It's hard for anybody to say that. That's the point. These guys have not been really satisfactorily stretched out over the last couple years," Maddon concluded.
Because of the amount of work the five starters did last season, Maddon has been cautious with his front line arms. It is possible that he will break camp with 6 starting pitchers, and keeping one as a long reliever-spot starter to control the number of pitches and innings for his veterans like Lester and Lackey. A spot start could add a "rest" day for each starter.
The bullpen seems set with Wade Davis the new closer. He will be joined by Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards, Koji Uehara, Justin Grimm and Brian Duensing.
That means the Cubs will probably break camp with an extra pitcher on a 13 man staff. Which means that the final roster battle will be on the last bench player, whether it be a utility infielder or 5th outfielder.
The 12 position players would appear to include Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javy Baez, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Miguel Montero, John Jay, and Jason Heyward. That would leave 2 spots between Matt Szczur (who is out of options), Tommy LaStella or Albert Almora. With Schwarber, Bryant and Zobrist able to handle outfield duties, it would be surprising if both Szczur and Almora would make the final cut.
The main rotation is set: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey.
The fifth starter spot will go to Mike Montgomery or Brett Anderson. Montgomery showed his versatility coming out of the bullpen in different situations. But at the end of the season, he was semi-promised to return to the rotation. But with the Cubs organizational starting depth weak, the Cubs signed oft-injured Anderson to compete for a position.
It is still early in camp, but the numbers after 2 games played:
Montgomery: 0-1, 2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP
Anderson: 1-0, 3 IP, 6.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Joe Maddon has said that he could use both Montgomery and Anderson in hybrid pitching roles.
"The big thing with both of them (is) neither one has really been stretched out anywhere close to 200 innings over the last couple years. So we're thinking it's almost like a hybrid moment. Maybe fold one back into the bullpen while the other one starts. And vice versa. Or just jump a sixth guy in there now and then to keep the other guys from being overworked too early," Maddon said.
"It's in theory right now. We haven't actually laid it down on paper. We feel pretty fortunate. If everybody stays healthy, you got six guys that you like right there. It's hard for anybody to say that. That's the point. These guys have not been really satisfactorily stretched out over the last couple years," Maddon concluded.
Because of the amount of work the five starters did last season, Maddon has been cautious with his front line arms. It is possible that he will break camp with 6 starting pitchers, and keeping one as a long reliever-spot starter to control the number of pitches and innings for his veterans like Lester and Lackey. A spot start could add a "rest" day for each starter.
The bullpen seems set with Wade Davis the new closer. He will be joined by Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards, Koji Uehara, Justin Grimm and Brian Duensing.
That means the Cubs will probably break camp with an extra pitcher on a 13 man staff. Which means that the final roster battle will be on the last bench player, whether it be a utility infielder or 5th outfielder.
The 12 position players would appear to include Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javy Baez, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Miguel Montero, John Jay, and Jason Heyward. That would leave 2 spots between Matt Szczur (who is out of options), Tommy LaStella or Albert Almora. With Schwarber, Bryant and Zobrist able to handle outfield duties, it would be surprising if both Szczur and Almora would make the final cut.
January 24, 2017
A LEFTY QUESTION MARK
The Cubs signing lefty Brett Anderson for $3.5 million with incentives to make a $10 million pitcher is another exhibit on how desperate the team is to get starting pitching depth.
In 8 big league seasons, Anderson has only started 30 games twice. And in his 8 big league seasons, he has only had one good year, in 2015, when he went 10-9 3.69 ERA. He has a career 7.3 WAR (0.9125 career average WAR). He is a career 38-43, 3.86 ERA, 1.318 WHIP.
He is injury prone. He only was in a few games last season. Anderson, who’ll turn 29 on February 1st, made just four major league starts last year after missing the bulk of the season due to back surgery.
Reports indicate that Anderson, if he is healthy, will compete with Mike Montgomery for the 5th starter spot. Montgomery looks to be the clubhouse leader by a wide margin due to his end of season and post-season record. Back injuries are tricky conditions as they tend to flare up over time. Anderson is just 28 but is coming off his second back surgery in three years, having undergone an arthroscopic procedure during spring training last year.
The Cubs need to have eight quality starters in camp. They only will have six actively seeking a 25 man roster spot. With the pitching market must be so thin, it is still strange that Jason Hammel has not received any offers. Hammel went 15-10 in 30 starts, with an 3.83 ERA and 1.1 WAR for the Cubs. He was bought out of his option in November. Hammel struggled at the end of last season (which was his habit) so he was not on the post-season roster. But considering the lack of experienced starters on the market, the Cubs selecting an injured pitcher over Hammel puts a label "damaged" goods on his back (is it a clubhouse attitude issue? a mechanical breakdown issue? a financial issue?) From an objective analysis, Hammel appears to be a more reliable pitcher than Anderson.
In 8 big league seasons, Anderson has only started 30 games twice. And in his 8 big league seasons, he has only had one good year, in 2015, when he went 10-9 3.69 ERA. He has a career 7.3 WAR (0.9125 career average WAR). He is a career 38-43, 3.86 ERA, 1.318 WHIP.
He is injury prone. He only was in a few games last season. Anderson, who’ll turn 29 on February 1st, made just four major league starts last year after missing the bulk of the season due to back surgery.
Reports indicate that Anderson, if he is healthy, will compete with Mike Montgomery for the 5th starter spot. Montgomery looks to be the clubhouse leader by a wide margin due to his end of season and post-season record. Back injuries are tricky conditions as they tend to flare up over time. Anderson is just 28 but is coming off his second back surgery in three years, having undergone an arthroscopic procedure during spring training last year.
The Cubs need to have eight quality starters in camp. They only will have six actively seeking a 25 man roster spot. With the pitching market must be so thin, it is still strange that Jason Hammel has not received any offers. Hammel went 15-10 in 30 starts, with an 3.83 ERA and 1.1 WAR for the Cubs. He was bought out of his option in November. Hammel struggled at the end of last season (which was his habit) so he was not on the post-season roster. But considering the lack of experienced starters on the market, the Cubs selecting an injured pitcher over Hammel puts a label "damaged" goods on his back (is it a clubhouse attitude issue? a mechanical breakdown issue? a financial issue?) From an objective analysis, Hammel appears to be a more reliable pitcher than Anderson.
January 9, 2017
THE SIXTH MAN
The Cubs are planning to go with a partial six-man rotation in 2017.
In 2016, resting the veteran starters in the second half helped in the playoffs.
But the problem to be addressed in spring training is that lack of starter depth.
The current rotation of Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey and Montgomery is solid, but many of these veterans logged personal maximum innings in 2016. How fresh or sharp will they be in 2017?
The problem continues to be that the Cubs have failed to develop their own starting pitching.
Rob Zastryzny is slated to start in AA Iowa as the emergency starter. He went 1-0, 1.13 ERA in 8 games with the Cubs in 2016 (1 start). He is a lefty who went 10-5 in the minors with a 4.31 ERA. He may project to be a Travis Wood long relief/spot starter candidate.
The Cubs are also counting on Jake Buchanan. He went 1-0, 1.50 ERA in 2 games for the Cubs in 2016 (1 start). In AAA, he went 12-8, 4.34 ERA in 22 starts.
Also in the mix is Aaron Brooks. The ex-Royal, 26, went 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA in limited AAA action. His career MLB record is 3-5, 8.38 ERA.
Montgomery's promotion to the rotation does cause a weakness in the bullpen. Monty was a long reliever who could be spotted for work in any inning. If the Indians use of Andrew Miller in the playoffs will be a blueprint copied by many other teams, Montgomery seems comfortable in that role. He has not gone a full season as a starter.
The other unknown is the durability of Lester, Arrieta and Lackey. Will Maddon ease up on them in spring training and in the early part of the season? Is that why the Cubs will break camp with an 8 man bullpen? Probably.
Zaztrynzy, Buchanan and Brooks do not instill confidence in case of a starting rotation fail.
There are two guys currently on the market that would fit the bill as stop-gap starters: Travis Wood and Jason Hammel. In a pitching market devoid of quality starters, both Wood and Hammel have not gotten much free agent love. The Cubs bought out Hammel's option so he is not really on the radar to return. Wood wants to return to being a full time starter, with a better command of his fastball. Remember, starters make more money than relievers.
The Cubs will still have to make at least one off-season move to add depth to the rotation. The Cubs continue to harp about acquiring young, controllable arms. A player with quality stats and 4 years of control is sitting on the White Sox fire sale inventory, Jose Quintana, but the price the Cubs would have to pay stops the discussion before it even begins. Quintana, 13-12, 3.20 ERA with a 5.2 WAR in 2016, is the type of player the Cubs would need if either Lester or Arrieta goes down with a serious injury.
The six-man rotation concept is good in theory. However, if you don't have the pieces to make it work, it messes up the entire pitching staff.
In 2016, resting the veteran starters in the second half helped in the playoffs.
But the problem to be addressed in spring training is that lack of starter depth.
The current rotation of Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey and Montgomery is solid, but many of these veterans logged personal maximum innings in 2016. How fresh or sharp will they be in 2017?
The problem continues to be that the Cubs have failed to develop their own starting pitching.
Rob Zastryzny is slated to start in AA Iowa as the emergency starter. He went 1-0, 1.13 ERA in 8 games with the Cubs in 2016 (1 start). He is a lefty who went 10-5 in the minors with a 4.31 ERA. He may project to be a Travis Wood long relief/spot starter candidate.
The Cubs are also counting on Jake Buchanan. He went 1-0, 1.50 ERA in 2 games for the Cubs in 2016 (1 start). In AAA, he went 12-8, 4.34 ERA in 22 starts.
Also in the mix is Aaron Brooks. The ex-Royal, 26, went 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA in limited AAA action. His career MLB record is 3-5, 8.38 ERA.
Montgomery's promotion to the rotation does cause a weakness in the bullpen. Monty was a long reliever who could be spotted for work in any inning. If the Indians use of Andrew Miller in the playoffs will be a blueprint copied by many other teams, Montgomery seems comfortable in that role. He has not gone a full season as a starter.
The other unknown is the durability of Lester, Arrieta and Lackey. Will Maddon ease up on them in spring training and in the early part of the season? Is that why the Cubs will break camp with an 8 man bullpen? Probably.
Zaztrynzy, Buchanan and Brooks do not instill confidence in case of a starting rotation fail.
There are two guys currently on the market that would fit the bill as stop-gap starters: Travis Wood and Jason Hammel. In a pitching market devoid of quality starters, both Wood and Hammel have not gotten much free agent love. The Cubs bought out Hammel's option so he is not really on the radar to return. Wood wants to return to being a full time starter, with a better command of his fastball. Remember, starters make more money than relievers.
The Cubs will still have to make at least one off-season move to add depth to the rotation. The Cubs continue to harp about acquiring young, controllable arms. A player with quality stats and 4 years of control is sitting on the White Sox fire sale inventory, Jose Quintana, but the price the Cubs would have to pay stops the discussion before it even begins. Quintana, 13-12, 3.20 ERA with a 5.2 WAR in 2016, is the type of player the Cubs would need if either Lester or Arrieta goes down with a serious injury.
The six-man rotation concept is good in theory. However, if you don't have the pieces to make it work, it messes up the entire pitching staff.
June 22, 2016
THE SIXTH MAN
In the dead ball era of baseball, teams had two or three starters. In the 1960s-1970s, there were four man rotations. Today, the norm is a five starters on pitch counts.
The Cubs will soon buck the trend to add Adam Warren as the sixth starter.
The Cubs will soon go on a stretch of 24 straight games without a day off. With the heat of the summer upon the team, and Jake Arrieta scuffling to get through 5 innings recently, the front office is making a preemptive move by getting another pitcher available.
AAA Iowa does not have any quality major league ready starters to hold the fort in case of an injury or sore arm regular. That is why Warren, who made 17 starts last season with the Yankees as a long reliever, was sent to Iowa - - - to stretch out for a new role.
And because of recent high pitch counts, the Cubs have called up a platoon of fresh, young arms: C.J. Edwards (when Fowler went on the DL), Spencer Patton returns (to take Clayton Richard's spot) and Geraldo Concepcion (for Warren's slot).
Richard went to the DL for a "blister." He has been horrible and invisible this season, with a 7.30 ERA and a 2.19 WHIP. With no options left, this could be a way to buy time to see if they can get him straightened out before releasing him.
Warren was chosen to stretch out over Travis Wood because Wood is one of the few relief arms that Joe Maddon really trusts in any situation. Wood has become a force in the bullpen (2.30 ERA in 27 IP, 0.95 WHIP).
Patton has been good in Iowa, compiling eight (8) saves with a 1.04 ERA in 26 innings of work.
Concepcion will be the other lefty in the pen alongside Wood. This year in Iowa, he has worked just 17 1/3 innings to the tune of a 2.60 ERA. He’s allowed 7.8 H/9, but has managed to keep runners from crossing the plate. But Concepcion is the first Jed Hoyer pitcher to make it to the major league roster. A large bonus contract signed the Cuban exile in 2012, the first major move by the new regime. But Concepcion was horrible in rookie, A, and AA ball. From one of the best organizational prospects, he fell off the list. Some did not realize that he was still with the organization until his call-up yesterday.
The reason the Cubs will shuffle the bullpen with more arms is that Maddon believes the versatility of his regulars who play multiple positions effectively gives him a 28 man roster. However, that is really not true since a player cannot play two positions at the same time.
Another concern is that even though they have debuted in style, the Cubs are starting to regularly play three players with less than one year service time (catcher Willson Contreras, OF Alberto Almora, and IF Javy Baez.) Each has shown tremendous defense skills, but the Cubs need to produce more offense during this long stretch of upcoming games.
It is expected that Warren will throw a short start (3 IP), then a couple of normal outings (5 IP or 80 pitches) before returning to the Cubs. Once he returns, the rotation will go to six starters, meaning that each regular will have an extra day off during July and August. There was a concern last year that Arrieta's work load drained his tank in the post season. Lester and Lackey have a lot of innings pitched on their arms as well. It is a prudent move to try to conserve the best starting rotation in the majors for the playoffs.
The Cubs will soon buck the trend to add Adam Warren as the sixth starter.
The Cubs will soon go on a stretch of 24 straight games without a day off. With the heat of the summer upon the team, and Jake Arrieta scuffling to get through 5 innings recently, the front office is making a preemptive move by getting another pitcher available.
AAA Iowa does not have any quality major league ready starters to hold the fort in case of an injury or sore arm regular. That is why Warren, who made 17 starts last season with the Yankees as a long reliever, was sent to Iowa - - - to stretch out for a new role.
And because of recent high pitch counts, the Cubs have called up a platoon of fresh, young arms: C.J. Edwards (when Fowler went on the DL), Spencer Patton returns (to take Clayton Richard's spot) and Geraldo Concepcion (for Warren's slot).
Richard went to the DL for a "blister." He has been horrible and invisible this season, with a 7.30 ERA and a 2.19 WHIP. With no options left, this could be a way to buy time to see if they can get him straightened out before releasing him.
Warren was chosen to stretch out over Travis Wood because Wood is one of the few relief arms that Joe Maddon really trusts in any situation. Wood has become a force in the bullpen (2.30 ERA in 27 IP, 0.95 WHIP).
Patton has been good in Iowa, compiling eight (8) saves with a 1.04 ERA in 26 innings of work.
Concepcion will be the other lefty in the pen alongside Wood. This year in Iowa, he has worked just 17 1/3 innings to the tune of a 2.60 ERA. He’s allowed 7.8 H/9, but has managed to keep runners from crossing the plate. But Concepcion is the first Jed Hoyer pitcher to make it to the major league roster. A large bonus contract signed the Cuban exile in 2012, the first major move by the new regime. But Concepcion was horrible in rookie, A, and AA ball. From one of the best organizational prospects, he fell off the list. Some did not realize that he was still with the organization until his call-up yesterday.
The reason the Cubs will shuffle the bullpen with more arms is that Maddon believes the versatility of his regulars who play multiple positions effectively gives him a 28 man roster. However, that is really not true since a player cannot play two positions at the same time.
Another concern is that even though they have debuted in style, the Cubs are starting to regularly play three players with less than one year service time (catcher Willson Contreras, OF Alberto Almora, and IF Javy Baez.) Each has shown tremendous defense skills, but the Cubs need to produce more offense during this long stretch of upcoming games.
It is expected that Warren will throw a short start (3 IP), then a couple of normal outings (5 IP or 80 pitches) before returning to the Cubs. Once he returns, the rotation will go to six starters, meaning that each regular will have an extra day off during July and August. There was a concern last year that Arrieta's work load drained his tank in the post season. Lester and Lackey have a lot of innings pitched on their arms as well. It is a prudent move to try to conserve the best starting rotation in the majors for the playoffs.
February 11, 2016
CHEAP OPTION
The White Sox continue to shore up the roster for a 2016 fight.
The White Sox have officially added free agent righty Mat Latos to a one-year, $3 million deal. It’s a straight guaranteed deal with no incentives or options.
Latos had his best year with the Reds in 2014, going 14-7, 3.16 ERA.. But in 2015 he kicked around to three teams and had a poor 4-10 record, 4.95 ERA, average 1.305 WHIP but a negative 0.5 WAR. There are reports that Latos has become a clubhouse issue.
For the White Sox, it is a cheap alternative to shore up the back of the rotation. Chris Sale, Joe Quintana and Carlos Rodon are the top three starters. After that, Erik Johnson and John Danks are penciled in at #4 and # 5. Carson Palmer and Spencer Adams, the #2 and #3 prospects in the organization, appear to start the season in AAA Charlotte but probably will make the team sometime in 2016.
Latos, 28, can give you 30 starts. He is right hander on a staff dominated by lefties. He is a cheap option for a fifth starter.
It really puts Danks White Sox career on the end platform. In 2015, he went 7-15, 4.71 ERA, 1.413 WHIP. Danks, 30, is owed $15.7 million in the last year of his contract. Danks has been underperforming since signing his big deal contract.
GM Hahn is giving lame duck manager Robin Ventura more tools to try to win now.
The White Sox have officially added free agent righty Mat Latos to a one-year, $3 million deal. It’s a straight guaranteed deal with no incentives or options.
Latos had his best year with the Reds in 2014, going 14-7, 3.16 ERA.. But in 2015 he kicked around to three teams and had a poor 4-10 record, 4.95 ERA, average 1.305 WHIP but a negative 0.5 WAR. There are reports that Latos has become a clubhouse issue.
For the White Sox, it is a cheap alternative to shore up the back of the rotation. Chris Sale, Joe Quintana and Carlos Rodon are the top three starters. After that, Erik Johnson and John Danks are penciled in at #4 and # 5. Carson Palmer and Spencer Adams, the #2 and #3 prospects in the organization, appear to start the season in AAA Charlotte but probably will make the team sometime in 2016.
Latos, 28, can give you 30 starts. He is right hander on a staff dominated by lefties. He is a cheap option for a fifth starter.
It really puts Danks White Sox career on the end platform. In 2015, he went 7-15, 4.71 ERA, 1.413 WHIP. Danks, 30, is owed $15.7 million in the last year of his contract. Danks has been underperforming since signing his big deal contract.
GM Hahn is giving lame duck manager Robin Ventura more tools to try to win now.
November 27, 2015
TOP PITCHERS FOR CUBS
In the realistic post-season crystal ball of the Cubs off-season, there are several hard truths:
One, the Cubs baseball front office has less to spend than most people realize. I estimate that from press reports and current contract obligations, the Cubs can only spend around $25 million on new players. The acquisition of three AAA relievers prior to the 40 man deadline does not mean that the Cubs bullpen and pitching issues have been resolved for 2016.
Two, with a tight payroll cap, the Cubs are extremely unlikely to find a good CF/lead off hitter on the open market. The internal solution of either Albert Almora or Billy McKinney are years off in the future. The most likely scenario now is that the Cubs will have to move veteran salary off the books in order to free up cash to sign free agents to fill more urgent needs.
Three, as the post-season clearly showed, pitching is a priority for the Cubs to compete in 2016. The Cubs need to find two good starting pitchers to compliment Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta.
On the free agent pitching front, the Cubs cannot and will not throw hundreds of millions of dollars on Price, Zimmerman, Greinke or Cueto. In fact, more teams are going to stray away from the top tier guys to bid up second tier veteran arms. The Cubs really cannot afford a bidding war in this market.
The Cubs offer a young club with upswing potential and playoff experience is a benefit to some free agents looking for a good landing spot.
In culling the lists, I believe the two best fits of free agent pitchers for the Cubs this off-season are J.A. Happ and Mike Leake. Their acquisition basically eats up the payroll budget as it current stands without other roster moves.
Happ, 33, was traded at the deadline to the Pirates. He helped stabilize their rotation. He went 11-8 in 32 starts with a 3.41 ERA and 3.0 WAR. He made $6.7 million last season. He is projected to sign for either 2 years/$20 million or 3 years/$30 million.
Leake, 28, was traded by the Reds to the Giants at the deadline. He struggled a little in San Francisco. In 30 starts, he compiled a 11-10 record, 3.70 ERA and 2.9 WAR. He made $9.775 million last season. He is projected to sign for 5 years/$80 million.
Happ and Leake would offer a consistent #3 and #4 starters for a rotation that would consist of LHP Lester, RHP Arrieta, LHP Happ, RHP Leake and RHP Hendricks.
UPDATE: Happ signed a three-year deal valued at $36 million to return to Toronto, where he pitched for two-plus seasons from 2012-14. While far from a model of consistency throughout his nine-year Major League career, Happ boosted his stock with a strong finish to his 2015 campaign. After being traded from Seattle to Pittsburgh in July, Happ went 7-2 with a 1.85 ERA over his final 11 starts. He signed for about $2 million/ per season more than projected but he appears to take the place of Price in the rotation.
One, the Cubs baseball front office has less to spend than most people realize. I estimate that from press reports and current contract obligations, the Cubs can only spend around $25 million on new players. The acquisition of three AAA relievers prior to the 40 man deadline does not mean that the Cubs bullpen and pitching issues have been resolved for 2016.
Two, with a tight payroll cap, the Cubs are extremely unlikely to find a good CF/lead off hitter on the open market. The internal solution of either Albert Almora or Billy McKinney are years off in the future. The most likely scenario now is that the Cubs will have to move veteran salary off the books in order to free up cash to sign free agents to fill more urgent needs.
Three, as the post-season clearly showed, pitching is a priority for the Cubs to compete in 2016. The Cubs need to find two good starting pitchers to compliment Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta.
On the free agent pitching front, the Cubs cannot and will not throw hundreds of millions of dollars on Price, Zimmerman, Greinke or Cueto. In fact, more teams are going to stray away from the top tier guys to bid up second tier veteran arms. The Cubs really cannot afford a bidding war in this market.
The Cubs offer a young club with upswing potential and playoff experience is a benefit to some free agents looking for a good landing spot.
In culling the lists, I believe the two best fits of free agent pitchers for the Cubs this off-season are J.A. Happ and Mike Leake. Their acquisition basically eats up the payroll budget as it current stands without other roster moves.
Happ, 33, was traded at the deadline to the Pirates. He helped stabilize their rotation. He went 11-8 in 32 starts with a 3.41 ERA and 3.0 WAR. He made $6.7 million last season. He is projected to sign for either 2 years/$20 million or 3 years/$30 million.
Leake, 28, was traded by the Reds to the Giants at the deadline. He struggled a little in San Francisco. In 30 starts, he compiled a 11-10 record, 3.70 ERA and 2.9 WAR. He made $9.775 million last season. He is projected to sign for 5 years/$80 million.
Happ and Leake would offer a consistent #3 and #4 starters for a rotation that would consist of LHP Lester, RHP Arrieta, LHP Happ, RHP Leake and RHP Hendricks.
UPDATE: Happ signed a three-year deal valued at $36 million to return to Toronto, where he pitched for two-plus seasons from 2012-14. While far from a model of consistency throughout his nine-year Major League career, Happ boosted his stock with a strong finish to his 2015 campaign. After being traded from Seattle to Pittsburgh in July, Happ went 7-2 with a 1.85 ERA over his final 11 starts. He signed for about $2 million/ per season more than projected but he appears to take the place of Price in the rotation.
November 14, 2015
QUINTANA THE KEEPER
The White Sox have a wealth of pitching. Pundits want to trade Jose Quintana for missing offensive pieces. But does that make sense? No.
Quintana, 26, is signed through 2020 on a team friendly deal: 5 years/$43.5 million.
Quintana had a 4.0 WAR last season, and a career 15.3 WAR. As such, he has outperformed his past contract value.
If the White Sox ever gave him even normal run support, Quintana could have been an easy 18 game winner.
With Jeff Samardzija set to reject the qualifying offer, the White Sox rotation is still good but not as great as it was last spring: Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Danks and Erik Johnson (with rookie Frankie Montas or new pick up but often injured Jacob Turner in the mix for the 6th starter spot).
This shows that Quintana is an extremely valuable #2 starter to bridge to Rodon, who may have a sophomore slump as the league adjusts to him, and Danks, who still is on a career downward spiral.
Quintana, 26, is signed through 2020 on a team friendly deal: 5 years/$43.5 million.
Quintana had a 4.0 WAR last season, and a career 15.3 WAR. As such, he has outperformed his past contract value.
If the White Sox ever gave him even normal run support, Quintana could have been an easy 18 game winner.
With Jeff Samardzija set to reject the qualifying offer, the White Sox rotation is still good but not as great as it was last spring: Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Danks and Erik Johnson (with rookie Frankie Montas or new pick up but often injured Jacob Turner in the mix for the 6th starter spot).
This shows that Quintana is an extremely valuable #2 starter to bridge to Rodon, who may have a sophomore slump as the league adjusts to him, and Danks, who still is on a career downward spiral.
October 28, 2015
TURNING A PAGE
The White Sox made a move for a reclamation pitcher that normally the Cubs grab on to . . . and in this case, had on their roster.
MLBTR reported that:
The White Sox have claimed right-hander Jacob Turner off waivers from the Cubs, according to the club’s transactions page at MLB.com. Turner, 24, didn’t pitch in the Majors this season, spending most of the year on the 60-day disabled list due to a strained right flexor tendon and right shoulder inflammation.
Turner, who was considered a top-30 prospect for a few years running, received steady MLB work after the Tigers traded him to Miami as the centerpiece in the trade package that sent Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to Detroit. He posted a 3.74 ERA over 118 innings in 2013, which is
pretty good for a 22-year-old, even with unconvincing peripherals.
Then the wheels came off the following year -- a 5.98 ERA and a .328/.371/.480. Turner was out of options so he was traded in a minor league deal to the Cubs in August of 2014. But Turner pitched even worse for the Cubs for 34 innings over the remainder
of 2014, then missed almost all of 2015 with the aforementioned
injuries.
Turner has never had the eye popping performance with the Cubs to even get a whiff that he could be the next Jake Arrieta turnaround story. Chris Bosio is like Don Cooper, pitcher whisperers, who get the most out of cast-off pitchers. But there is no current body of work that shows that Turner is a salvageable or serviceable starting pitcher.
Turner, 24 years
old, is a "low-risk-high-reward" move for the White Sox. The Sox have a strong starting rotation, but no starter depth in the minors. Erik Johnson will get a chance at the fifth
rotation spot behind lefties Sale, Quintana, Rodon, and Danks.
Whether Turner will get the chance
is an open question. First, the White Sox will have to protect him offseason of 40-man
roster churn (or an outrighting, which the Sox prevented the Cubs from
doing here by making a waiver claim). After that, since Turner is out of options, the Sox will need to
keep him on the 25-man roster or risk losing him through waivers should
they want to get him to Charlotte.
March 27, 2015
EDWIN PROBLEM
The fallout from not getting Anibal Sanchez continues to haunt the Cubs since the front office knee jerked a long term free agent deal with Edwin Jackson. Jackson has been a major disappointment, and the butt of fan remarks, most recently in his ability to find the Cubs old spring training facility on the day he was supposed to start against the A's.
The rotation appears to be set. Lester, Arrieta, Hammel, T. Woods and Hendricks. Jackson is clearly the odd starter out. Whether he will take the old Carlos Villaneuva role of being a long reliever-spot starter is unclear since he has said in the past that he is only a starting pitcher.
The Cubs still owe Jackson $26 million for the next two years. That is a huge dead money contract if the team cuts him. The Cubs cannot mysteriously DL him since he a veteran and the union does not teams messing with veterans under contract. The pressure is on the Cubs to keep him on the 25 man roster. The problem is that the bullpen is already filled with better arms. Justin Grimm is out of options so he has to stay in middle relief. Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop and Jason Motte are the back end of the pen, along with Neil Ramirez and probably lefties Phil Coke and Felix Doubront, who is also out of options.
With the Cubs apparently keeping Welington Castillo, who is also out of options, as the third catcher, there is no space to keep Jackson on the 25 man roster. Even in an era of more pitchers having arm issues, there has been no buzz lately in the trade rumor department on Jackson.
The Cubs have claimed the Kris Bryant situation is not about the money, but in reality it is. Adding one year of control means one year more without having to pay a large free agency deal at Bryant's peak earning years. However, if Bryant is a superstar player, play him now and pay him in due course since baseball history is littered with teams missing the playoffs by a single game.
If it is about "not" eating the money, Jackson will be shoehorned on the roster at the expense of another pitcher. That will not sit well with Cub fans.
The rotation appears to be set. Lester, Arrieta, Hammel, T. Woods and Hendricks. Jackson is clearly the odd starter out. Whether he will take the old Carlos Villaneuva role of being a long reliever-spot starter is unclear since he has said in the past that he is only a starting pitcher.
The Cubs still owe Jackson $26 million for the next two years. That is a huge dead money contract if the team cuts him. The Cubs cannot mysteriously DL him since he a veteran and the union does not teams messing with veterans under contract. The pressure is on the Cubs to keep him on the 25 man roster. The problem is that the bullpen is already filled with better arms. Justin Grimm is out of options so he has to stay in middle relief. Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop and Jason Motte are the back end of the pen, along with Neil Ramirez and probably lefties Phil Coke and Felix Doubront, who is also out of options.
With the Cubs apparently keeping Welington Castillo, who is also out of options, as the third catcher, there is no space to keep Jackson on the 25 man roster. Even in an era of more pitchers having arm issues, there has been no buzz lately in the trade rumor department on Jackson.
The Cubs have claimed the Kris Bryant situation is not about the money, but in reality it is. Adding one year of control means one year more without having to pay a large free agency deal at Bryant's peak earning years. However, if Bryant is a superstar player, play him now and pay him in due course since baseball history is littered with teams missing the playoffs by a single game.
If it is about "not" eating the money, Jackson will be shoehorned on the roster at the expense of another pitcher. That will not sit well with Cub fans.
March 5, 2015
GOING TO WAR
Depending on what era in history, a general has to count on one element of his army in order to achieve victory.
In baseball, that is the starting rotation. So much emphasis and money is put into five arms.
The Cubs are probably going to war with these five starters: Lester, Arrieta, Hammel, Hendricks and T. Wood.
The Cubs rotation, if they match last year's production, would generate 14 WAR.
Lester: 3.6
Arrieta: 5.3
Hammel: 3.1
Hendricks: 2.9
T. Wood: -0.9
______________
Total: 14.0 WAR
In contrast, the champion Giants starting rotation accumulated 8.1 WAR.
Bumgarten: 4.0
Hudson: 1.5
Vogelsong: 1.2
Peavy: 2.1
Cain: -0.7
______________
Total: 8.1 WAR
The Giants had several starters with injuries so it cobbled together a 6th, 7th and 8th starter. But it was the timely offense that made up the slack in SF's championship run, with a 22.3 oWAR to a pitching staff total 15.2 WAR. The Giants win percentage above average was .505.
It is debatable what is replacement value for a starting pitcher (a .500 record? or more tied to run production .300?) as a factor of team wins. A GM would like a replacement pitcher to win at least half their starts; but realistically a third is probably a better gauge (since the burden falls more to the bullpen).
Each team has 162 games to start. Each rotation pitcher probably, on average, will take the mound around 31 times. So a set rotation covers about 155 games. A replacement team would average around 65 wins. The Giants patched together an 88 win season, meaning the offense carried at least 15 games above pitcher replacement (almost double value than the starters).
The Cubs won 73 games with batting WAR of 7.7 and pitching WAR of 15.7, almost a mirror image of the Giants. The Cubs primary starting five had a collective 7.2 WAR. Again, if one thinks that the 2015 rotation will be much better (by 7 games), this gets the Cubs projected to an 80 win season if the offense remains the same (which may be the case with the young players and league adjustments).
So the Cubs will really have to rely on their starters to carry the team.
In baseball, that is the starting rotation. So much emphasis and money is put into five arms.
The Cubs are probably going to war with these five starters: Lester, Arrieta, Hammel, Hendricks and T. Wood.
The Cubs rotation, if they match last year's production, would generate 14 WAR.
Lester: 3.6
Arrieta: 5.3
Hammel: 3.1
Hendricks: 2.9
T. Wood: -0.9
______________
Total: 14.0 WAR
In contrast, the champion Giants starting rotation accumulated 8.1 WAR.
Bumgarten: 4.0
Hudson: 1.5
Vogelsong: 1.2
Peavy: 2.1
Cain: -0.7
______________
Total: 8.1 WAR
The Giants had several starters with injuries so it cobbled together a 6th, 7th and 8th starter. But it was the timely offense that made up the slack in SF's championship run, with a 22.3 oWAR to a pitching staff total 15.2 WAR. The Giants win percentage above average was .505.
It is debatable what is replacement value for a starting pitcher (a .500 record? or more tied to run production .300?) as a factor of team wins. A GM would like a replacement pitcher to win at least half their starts; but realistically a third is probably a better gauge (since the burden falls more to the bullpen).
Each team has 162 games to start. Each rotation pitcher probably, on average, will take the mound around 31 times. So a set rotation covers about 155 games. A replacement team would average around 65 wins. The Giants patched together an 88 win season, meaning the offense carried at least 15 games above pitcher replacement (almost double value than the starters).
The Cubs won 73 games with batting WAR of 7.7 and pitching WAR of 15.7, almost a mirror image of the Giants. The Cubs primary starting five had a collective 7.2 WAR. Again, if one thinks that the 2015 rotation will be much better (by 7 games), this gets the Cubs projected to an 80 win season if the offense remains the same (which may be the case with the young players and league adjustments).
So the Cubs will really have to rely on their starters to carry the team.
February 13, 2015
TRADING PLACES
In 2014, the Cubs put a waiver claim on Cole Hamels. It is customary that a team place all its players on revocable waivers after the trade deadline in order to judge potential trade partners. The Cubs surprised many as being a "buyer" on Hamels. The Phils pulled back the ace pitcher and no trade happened.
But this week, Bruce Levine was on the radio talking about the Cubs and Hamels. He believes the Cubs, who lost out on James Shields, are still interested in Hamels. However, the Phillies are looking for a bunch of young prospects from the Cubs in order to move Hamels.
Hamels is owed $98 million. Levine believes the Cubs have the money to do anything at this point. (Which is an cloudy statement considering the Cubs have huge outlays on Wrigley reconstruction, new litigation fees and the unlikely hope that all the big prospects will turn to gold in 2015). The Cubs were second in the Shields free agency bidding, offering three years, $60 million. The Padres won with four years, $75 million. If the Cubs had no barriers on money, then another $5 million per year would have gotten Shields.
In order to acquire Hamels, the Phillies would probably want a catcher, Welington Castillo, an impact middle infielder, Addison Russell, a young ready starter, Kyle Hendricks and another prospect like Albert Almora or Arismendy Alcantara. The radio hosts immediately turned down that package on behalf of the Cubs organization.
Clearly, the speculation is that Castillo and LHP Travis Wood is not enough to pry Hamels away from Philadelphia, which is going to go through a major rebuild. Castillo has an average annual WAR of 1.54 (1.8 last year), Wood an average annual WAR of 1.0, and Alcantara 0.6 for a benchmark group WAR of 3.1 WAR. Hamels average WAR is 4.4. Hendricks had a 2.9 WAR last year. Hendricks, Castillo and Alcantara is probably a good enough package to acquire Hamels from a neutral observation point-of-view. But the Phils will demand more and the Cubs really covet their own prospects so any deal is a long shot.
Hamels, 31, has played 9 seasons. In 274 career starts, he is 108-83, 3.27 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 3.77 K/BB ratio and 40.4 WAR.
He has been compared to Shields, 33, 11 years career 26.7 WAR and Zack Greinke, 31, 9 years career 39.4 WAR.
Would Hamels help the Cubs rotation? Of course. And with the current front office's fascination with lefties, a rotation of Lester, Hamels, Arrieta, T. Wood and Hammel would be an upgrade over 2014.
Perhaps the $98 million budget would be better held in reserve for David Price's free agency in 2015.
But this week, Bruce Levine was on the radio talking about the Cubs and Hamels. He believes the Cubs, who lost out on James Shields, are still interested in Hamels. However, the Phillies are looking for a bunch of young prospects from the Cubs in order to move Hamels.
“Eight teams have kicked the tires,” general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told CSNPhilly.com.The Cubs are apparently one of the tire kickers.
How many teams have made offers?
“Real offers?” Amaro said.
“Four.”
Hamels is owed $98 million. Levine believes the Cubs have the money to do anything at this point. (Which is an cloudy statement considering the Cubs have huge outlays on Wrigley reconstruction, new litigation fees and the unlikely hope that all the big prospects will turn to gold in 2015). The Cubs were second in the Shields free agency bidding, offering three years, $60 million. The Padres won with four years, $75 million. If the Cubs had no barriers on money, then another $5 million per year would have gotten Shields.
In order to acquire Hamels, the Phillies would probably want a catcher, Welington Castillo, an impact middle infielder, Addison Russell, a young ready starter, Kyle Hendricks and another prospect like Albert Almora or Arismendy Alcantara. The radio hosts immediately turned down that package on behalf of the Cubs organization.
Clearly, the speculation is that Castillo and LHP Travis Wood is not enough to pry Hamels away from Philadelphia, which is going to go through a major rebuild. Castillo has an average annual WAR of 1.54 (1.8 last year), Wood an average annual WAR of 1.0, and Alcantara 0.6 for a benchmark group WAR of 3.1 WAR. Hamels average WAR is 4.4. Hendricks had a 2.9 WAR last year. Hendricks, Castillo and Alcantara is probably a good enough package to acquire Hamels from a neutral observation point-of-view. But the Phils will demand more and the Cubs really covet their own prospects so any deal is a long shot.
Hamels, 31, has played 9 seasons. In 274 career starts, he is 108-83, 3.27 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 3.77 K/BB ratio and 40.4 WAR.
He has been compared to Shields, 33, 11 years career 26.7 WAR and Zack Greinke, 31, 9 years career 39.4 WAR.
Would Hamels help the Cubs rotation? Of course. And with the current front office's fascination with lefties, a rotation of Lester, Hamels, Arrieta, T. Wood and Hammel would be an upgrade over 2014.
Perhaps the $98 million budget would be better held in reserve for David Price's free agency in 2015.
December 10, 2014
A SURPRISE MOVE
The Cubs went against conventional wisdom and signed the best free agent on the market. The Cubs clearly overpaid for Jon Lester, and made a move prior to the team is ready to win the division. Lester takes the role of Jeff Samardzija, the opening day starter (and possibly the pitcher with the least run support).
By many reports, the Red Sox botched their dealings with Lester. First, the team insulted him last year with a weak $70 million/3 year extension offer. Second, the team traded Lester to Oakland, but told the press that the team wanted Lester back. You don't trade away somebody you really want. Third, the Red Sox final offer was $20 million short of the Cubs (also meaning that the Cubs overpaid the market for Lester).
The Giants GM said he was not given a chance to give his best or final offer. This means that Lester preferred to not be on the West Coast (he lives in Atlanta). But in the end, respect equals money and the Cubs flashed the most green. This sudden spending spree may be a public relations reaction to what the White Sox had accomplished in the off-season: adding players like Samardzija, LaRouche, Robertson, Duke. It would be hard to sell tickets if the White Sox are charging to the top of the AL Central.
The $15 million vesting option for Year 7 of the deal should be no problem if the Cubs in 2020 get their golden Cub channel television deal (like the Dodgers). But since the Cubs still don't even have a local TV in place, the dramatic change in cable and entertainment distribution and the Dodgers disaster of unable to sell their channel to distributors, the Cubs are banking on money the team may never get.
Lester will receive six years and $155 million, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reports. The contract will make Lester one of baseball’s richest pitchers, with an average annual value of $25.8 million, that ranks just ahead of Detroit Tiger Justin Verlander's $25.7 million/year but behind only Clayton Kershaw's $30.7 million.
Despite what Cubs management says, the team is still not close to winning a pennant.
Lester will lead a staff of starters that breaks down as follows:
1. LHP Lester
2. RHP Hammel
3. RHP Arrieta
4. RHP Hendrick
5. LHP Wada
The two pitchers immediately out of the rotation are Travis Wood and Edwin Jackson. Jackson has a bad contract, but there has been some reported interest in other teams, like Atlanta, who would swap bad deals. A Brave deal Jackson for B.J. Upton has the potential to upgrade LF over a Coghlan/Ruggiano platoon if Upton's two year funk can be corrected. Wood's 2014 slide is of some concern, which is why Wada was re-signed for 2015.
Lester pitched for Boston and Oakland last year, compiling a 16-11 record, 2.46 ERA, 1.102 WHIP and 4.6 WAR. In his 9 seasons, Lester is 116-67, 3.58 ERA, 32.6 WAR.
From a valuation standpoint, Lester's current WAR equates to $23 million/ year. If one projects out Lester, who will be 31, over the 6 seasons with a 10 percent decline in effectiveness, it is expected that he will contribute another 21.52 WAR, which would put the contract value of the deal at $107.6 million. Therefore, the Cubs paid a 44 percent premium over the expected value of Lester in the next 6 years.
In order for the Lester deal to work out, the Cubs need to score more runs. A lot more runs. This will push the team to promote Kris Bryant earlier than expected, which should appease the fans.
By many reports, the Red Sox botched their dealings with Lester. First, the team insulted him last year with a weak $70 million/3 year extension offer. Second, the team traded Lester to Oakland, but told the press that the team wanted Lester back. You don't trade away somebody you really want. Third, the Red Sox final offer was $20 million short of the Cubs (also meaning that the Cubs overpaid the market for Lester).
The Giants GM said he was not given a chance to give his best or final offer. This means that Lester preferred to not be on the West Coast (he lives in Atlanta). But in the end, respect equals money and the Cubs flashed the most green. This sudden spending spree may be a public relations reaction to what the White Sox had accomplished in the off-season: adding players like Samardzija, LaRouche, Robertson, Duke. It would be hard to sell tickets if the White Sox are charging to the top of the AL Central.
The $15 million vesting option for Year 7 of the deal should be no problem if the Cubs in 2020 get their golden Cub channel television deal (like the Dodgers). But since the Cubs still don't even have a local TV in place, the dramatic change in cable and entertainment distribution and the Dodgers disaster of unable to sell their channel to distributors, the Cubs are banking on money the team may never get.
Lester will receive six years and $155 million, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reports. The contract will make Lester one of baseball’s richest pitchers, with an average annual value of $25.8 million, that ranks just ahead of Detroit Tiger Justin Verlander's $25.7 million/year but behind only Clayton Kershaw's $30.7 million.
Despite what Cubs management says, the team is still not close to winning a pennant.
Lester will lead a staff of starters that breaks down as follows:
1. LHP Lester
2. RHP Hammel
3. RHP Arrieta
4. RHP Hendrick
5. LHP Wada
The two pitchers immediately out of the rotation are Travis Wood and Edwin Jackson. Jackson has a bad contract, but there has been some reported interest in other teams, like Atlanta, who would swap bad deals. A Brave deal Jackson for B.J. Upton has the potential to upgrade LF over a Coghlan/Ruggiano platoon if Upton's two year funk can be corrected. Wood's 2014 slide is of some concern, which is why Wada was re-signed for 2015.
Lester pitched for Boston and Oakland last year, compiling a 16-11 record, 2.46 ERA, 1.102 WHIP and 4.6 WAR. In his 9 seasons, Lester is 116-67, 3.58 ERA, 32.6 WAR.
From a valuation standpoint, Lester's current WAR equates to $23 million/ year. If one projects out Lester, who will be 31, over the 6 seasons with a 10 percent decline in effectiveness, it is expected that he will contribute another 21.52 WAR, which would put the contract value of the deal at $107.6 million. Therefore, the Cubs paid a 44 percent premium over the expected value of Lester in the next 6 years.
In order for the Lester deal to work out, the Cubs need to score more runs. A lot more runs. This will push the team to promote Kris Bryant earlier than expected, which should appease the fans.
November 24, 2014
SEEING RED
If there was ever a team that should go "all in" in 2015, it is the Cincinnati Reds.
Yes, the Cardinals have been the dominant team in the NL Central, and the Pirates have risen from the bottom to be a contender, but the Reds have one last chance with the current core roster to make a charge.
Many rumors are spreading around the Reds trading off pieces. But some would question why.
Yes, 4/5ths of the current rotation (Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon) are all free agents following the 2015 season. That is the reason why the Reds should go all out to win in 2015. It will be nearly impossible to rebuild that rotation quickly in today's baseball economics.
In 2014, the Reds finished 76-86, 14 GB in the standings.
The team just needs to tweak the bullpen, shore up the outfield with some power and hope the injury bug does not bite them hard.
The Braves are very much shopping Justin Upton but they are requesting a higher return than they received earlier this week when they dealt their other corner outfielder, Jason Heyward.
In exchange for Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden, Atlanta received from St. Louis a pretty good starter with four years of control in Shelby Miller plus pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins.
Like Heyward, Upton can be a free agent after this season and is due $14.5 million in 2015 compared to the $8.3 million that Heyward will earn. Nevertheless, the Braves think Upton has greater value in the trade market because his overall offense — particularly his power — is superior. Upton hit 29 homers and Heyward 11. And Upton brings righty power, which is in particularly short demand.
This would one of those "all in" one year or bust deals if the Reds took a flyer on Upton. It would send a strong message: win now, or go home. Actually, that should be every team's message every spring.
Yes, the Cardinals have been the dominant team in the NL Central, and the Pirates have risen from the bottom to be a contender, but the Reds have one last chance with the current core roster to make a charge.
Many rumors are spreading around the Reds trading off pieces. But some would question why.
Yes, 4/5ths of the current rotation (Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon) are all free agents following the 2015 season. That is the reason why the Reds should go all out to win in 2015. It will be nearly impossible to rebuild that rotation quickly in today's baseball economics.
In 2014, the Reds finished 76-86, 14 GB in the standings.
The team just needs to tweak the bullpen, shore up the outfield with some power and hope the injury bug does not bite them hard.
The Braves are very much shopping Justin Upton but they are requesting a higher return than they received earlier this week when they dealt their other corner outfielder, Jason Heyward.
In exchange for Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden, Atlanta received from St. Louis a pretty good starter with four years of control in Shelby Miller plus pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins.
Like Heyward, Upton can be a free agent after this season and is due $14.5 million in 2015 compared to the $8.3 million that Heyward will earn. Nevertheless, the Braves think Upton has greater value in the trade market because his overall offense — particularly his power — is superior. Upton hit 29 homers and Heyward 11. And Upton brings righty power, which is in particularly short demand.
This would one of those "all in" one year or bust deals if the Reds took a flyer on Upton. It would send a strong message: win now, or go home. Actually, that should be every team's message every spring.
March 27, 2014
SOX ROTATION
White Sox manager Robin Ventura explained that he wanted to break up his lefty starters in the 2014 rotation. There are a few reasons for this move.
Typically, teams order their rotation from their best pitcher ("the staff ace") down in quality to the fifth starter position.
Since the leagues are primarily right handed dominate in pitching and hitting, the left handed starter is an unusual occurrence during a series. But the White Sox are primarily a left handed starting rotation against primarily right handed teams.
Managers believe that you want to keep your opponent off balance during a game or series. That is why pitching coaches like the idea of staggering types of pitchers throughout the rotation so another team does not get comfortable against, say fastball pitcher, fastball pitcher, fastball pitcher.
The same is true on the offensive side. Managers do not want pitchers to face a primarily one sided line up because the pitcher and umpire can get into a strike zone groove against one type of batter. By changing from a righty hitter to a lefty hitter makes the pitcher and catcher throw to a different strike zone, which in theory, evens out the pitching and hitting strategies.
So the White Sox rotation will be LHP Sale, RHP Paulino, LHP Quintana, RHP E. Johnson and LHP Danks. If you order the strength of the starters, it would run: #1, #4, #2, #5 and #3.
In high school chess tournaments, teams are supposed to rank their players by their chess ratings so equal level players would face off with each other. However, there were times when freshman or new team players would not have a high rating but would be above their level of competition. A captain could take advantage of that difference and keep stronger under the radar players at the low end of the tournament bracket, making sure for some easy wins. The same could be said for the White Sox rotation.
Danks may be the strongest #5 starter in the American League. Quintana is clearly the second best starter on the staff, but he will be throwing mostly against other teams' #3 starters. By moving Paulino to the #2 overslot, it puts higher quality pitchers at the back of the rotation which could equate to a pitching advantage.
Typically, teams order their rotation from their best pitcher ("the staff ace") down in quality to the fifth starter position.
Since the leagues are primarily right handed dominate in pitching and hitting, the left handed starter is an unusual occurrence during a series. But the White Sox are primarily a left handed starting rotation against primarily right handed teams.
Managers believe that you want to keep your opponent off balance during a game or series. That is why pitching coaches like the idea of staggering types of pitchers throughout the rotation so another team does not get comfortable against, say fastball pitcher, fastball pitcher, fastball pitcher.
The same is true on the offensive side. Managers do not want pitchers to face a primarily one sided line up because the pitcher and umpire can get into a strike zone groove against one type of batter. By changing from a righty hitter to a lefty hitter makes the pitcher and catcher throw to a different strike zone, which in theory, evens out the pitching and hitting strategies.
So the White Sox rotation will be LHP Sale, RHP Paulino, LHP Quintana, RHP E. Johnson and LHP Danks. If you order the strength of the starters, it would run: #1, #4, #2, #5 and #3.
In high school chess tournaments, teams are supposed to rank their players by their chess ratings so equal level players would face off with each other. However, there were times when freshman or new team players would not have a high rating but would be above their level of competition. A captain could take advantage of that difference and keep stronger under the radar players at the low end of the tournament bracket, making sure for some easy wins. The same could be said for the White Sox rotation.
Danks may be the strongest #5 starter in the American League. Quintana is clearly the second best starter on the staff, but he will be throwing mostly against other teams' #3 starters. By moving Paulino to the #2 overslot, it puts higher quality pitchers at the back of the rotation which could equate to a pitching advantage.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)