When Clayton Kershaw broke the bank with his new contract, which pays him an average annual salary of $30 million, that is the "ace" of ace money.
In six major league seasons, Kershaw has amassed an amazing record. He is 77-46, 2.60 ERA and 32.3 WAR. In 2013, his WAR was 7.8.
If one uses the range of player value of being $5.5 million per win above replacement, Kershaw's 2013 value would have been $42.9 million.
In contrast, the Cubs "ace" last season was Jeff Samardzija. However, he only had a 1.0 WAR in 2013. That would mean his value would be around $5.5 million. He has asked in arbitration for $6.2 million. This may be a little high, but starting pitching is a premium position. However, the Cubs definitely low balled him with their arbitration figure of $4.4 million. If the Cubs win the arbitration, it would be much easier to trade a 200 IP player at that lower salary figure.
But what is truly the realistic value of a starting rotation? Unless you have an unlimited budget, you can't stack five All-Star quality (5.0 WAR plus) pitchers.
Realistically, a starting rotation would be like this:
1. Pitcher A with a 5.0 WAR, an All-Star caliber player
2. Pitcher B with a 4.0 WAR, a very good pitcher.
3. Pitcher C with a 3.0 WAR, a solid starter.
4. Pitcher D with a 2.0 WAR, a starter who has consistency issues to be around a .500 pitcher.
5. Pitcher E with a 1.0 WAR, just above AAA replacement level.
If you look at it this way, Samardzija would fit the "value" of a 5th starter and not a staff "ace."
Many people believe Travis Wood had a better year than Samardzija, and the stats would back that up. Wood had a 2013 WAR of 4.4, which would make him a rock solid #2 starter.When Edwin Jackson was a National his last season, he had a 2.0 WAR which put him as a #4 starter on a good Nat team which was about right. The Cubs paid him a premium to be the #3 starter, but last season Jackson's WAR was a negative 1.3, which would have been below a #5 starter.
If Samardzija is the Cubs ace at 1.0 WAR, then the Cubs would be fielding four other starters at replacement level, which actually could happen in 2014 if the Cubs trade Wood. But of the two, Wood is more valuable than Samardzija.
