March 30, 2014

GOOD . . . BUT THAT GOOD?

SI.com reports on the details on Miguel Cabrera's record setting contract extension with the Tigers:

Being spurned by reigning AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer hasn’t reined in the Tigers’ desire to spend big. On Thursday, they reached an agreement with two-time AL MVP winner Miguel Cabrera on an eight-year extension running through 2023, worth roughly $248 million.  While there’s little doubt that the 30-year-old slugger (31 on April 18) is the best hitter in baseball right now, this record-setting contract locks in what’s likely to be his decline phase at a fairly steep price.


Scherzer turned down a Tiger offer of a reported $144 million. Apparently, that budget line will pay for about half of Cabrera's new deal. Cabrera was owed $44 million remaining on his current deal (eight years, $152.3 million), so he is now guaranteed a total of $292 million over the next 10 years, surpassing Alex Rodriguez’s 10-year, $275 million deal.

The $31 million average annual value over the new portion of the deal eclipses the $30.7 million of pitching ace Clayton Kershaw's own contract extension. Cabrera has a pair of vested optionsvalued at $30 million apiece tacked onto the end of the deal.

During his Tigers tenure, Cabrera has won three straight batting titles, led the league in OBP three times and in slugging percentage twice, all while helping the Tigers to three straight AL Central flags. He won the Triple Crown in 2012, the first player to do so since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967.

In his tenure with Detroit, he has led the league in hitting; his .327 batting average, .588 slugging percentage, 163 OPS+, 229 doubles, 227 homers and 737 RBI are all MLB highs, with the on-base percentages of Joey Votto (.421) and Joe Mauer (.411) the only ones surpassing his .407. He hasn’t led the league in Wins Above Replacement at any time since the trade thanks to below-average defense, but his 36.4 WAR across that span is second only to Albert Pujols’ 38.3.

But giving a 30 year old player nearly $300 million for the back end of his career in the new non-PED era really a good idea?

One can say that owners never learn their lessons about spending like drunken sailors. Very recent examples in the Angels roster, Pujols and Hamilton, have started to seriously break down after signing large megadeals. A-Rod was the poster boy for not signing expensive long term deals, that even the rolling in money Yankees could not get rid of him. 

It helps that the Tigers are owned by an old pizza billionaire who wants to win at any cost a championship.

It guarantees Cabrera will be a Tiger for life. It guarantees Cabrera and his family will have generational wealth. In the short term, it may keep the Tigers on track to win another AL Central crown. But long term, the massive amount of salary invested in one player will come back to hurt the team. Even the Cubs new front office felt the yoke of the Soriano contract for many years, including this year's final dead money payment. The Cubs have used the past payroll errors to justify a total rebuild of the team with young, contract friendly players.