SHUFFLING THE DECK CHAIRS

 Everyone knows the Cubs are a sinking ship. Tom Ricketts continues to declare "biblical" losses during the 2020 season. Theo Epstein could not part the sea of red ink. So Theo decided to bail; he cut a deal where his friend, Jed Hoyer, would retain his job with the new President title. The move saves Ricketts $10 million in Theo's 2021 salary. (The Athletic reported that recently the Cubs laid off 100 employees which we assume does not count the scouting and minor league staff let go early in the year.)

The Cubs are still a highly leveraged (debtor) team. The Ricketts family is also highly leveraged due to their overbuilding around Wrigley Field. The pandemic crushed their real estate holdings as many tenants, including Joe Maddon's restaurant, went out of business. Tom Ricketts had convinced his parents that the Cubs were a money making machine even in bad times (under the Tribune ownership).

But the Cubs bowing out early in the playoffs since the World Championship has hurt the club, both financially and structurally. Theo and Jed put all their eggs in early first round (can't miss) prospects like Bryant, Schwarber, Almora and Happ while overpaying for free agents to fill roster gaps (especially in pitching.) 

Since 2016, the team core (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras and Schwarber) have not lived up to high expectations. Instead of a dynasty, the Cubs gained one World Championship (which was a generational accomplishment not to be dismissed in their legacy). But as 2021 is around the corner, the cupboard is bare.

Three fifths of the starting rotation is gone to free agency. The core of Bryant, Baez, Rizzo and Schwarber are in their final contract years. The Cubs minor league system is devoid of any major prospects. The system ranked 26th with Nico Hoerner the only Top 100 prospect.

2021 appears heading toward a "crash and burn" season. The pundits believe the Cubs should trade their pending free agents to get something for them (other than a compensation draft pick). But others note that those players are coming off bad seasons so they have little trade value. A few writers even speculated that the Cubs could non-tender Schwarber to save his projected $8 million arbitration award. No team is going to take Bryant and his $18.5 million projected salary as a rental player, especially with his injury history and poor 2020 stats.

The only players with real trade value are Darvish and Hendricks. But Hoyer cannot be insane to trade away his remaining starters for prospects. Internal candidates to fill the rotation are Mills, Alzolay and Rea. Ian Happ was the only player to show a break out potential to other clubs. But trading Happ leaves Almora the sole center field candidate.

Even though money came off the books (Lester, Chatwood, Quintana), that money appears to be lost in 2021 as Ricketts clearly indicated that the payroll must come down substantially. As of today, there is not one AAA player who projects to be a starting MLB player. 

Another problem is that the fan base may not support another complete tear-down rebuild. The Cubs were good enough in a bad division to have middle round draft picks but it will be more hit and miss since the scouting department was gutted in 2020. Player development has always been an issue for this team. Hoyer indicated that he may rely more on advanced stats than scouting eyes. But that has been the problem with stat overload on major league players (and a rotation of coaches preaching new approaches). 

The Epstein era had the Worst of Times and the Best of Times and now fades back to the Worst of Times. For diehard Cub fans, the White Sox resurgence with young, exciting players, is going to be bitter pill to swallow as the Cubs begin to wallow.

THE ROAD AHEAD

 The Cubs dismal playoff run ended in another whimper.

Since the 2016 Championship, the Cubs have steadily gone down hill in October.

And it is surprising since they had home field advantage for this run.

The promise of a Cub dynasty was an illusion.

Theo Epstein has one season left on his contract. He will leave the Cubs because he is being handcuffed by the Cubs business side and the bitter taste of bad contracts which led to his down fall.

The Cubs only have 16 players under contract for 2021 (assuming the Cubs are not stupid to exercise $25 million option on Lester).

The projected payroll for those 16 is still $162 million.

Another $16 million is minimum to fill out 40 man roster. That is $178 million.
You have your starting OF and IF in tact, but no bench.
And you only have two starting pitchers (Darvish and Hendricks).
And you are stuck with Kimbrel as your closer (Jeffrees is a FA).

Consideringwe estimate  Ricketts lost at least $75 million on baseball and his failing real estate development (many tenants went bust during the pandemic), the Cubs will not spend any money (again) as the core 4 become free agents after 2021 (Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Schwarber). There will be no "let's go for it" final charge by this team. It looks more likely it will fizzle before the end of next spring training.

The prospect of another LONG rebuild is here. The Cubs minor league system is barren. Epstein did not draft and develop one quality starting pitcher during his tenure. The post-2020 pandemic season may lead to a very tense stand-off with the players union in the last year of the CBA. Owners will demand lowering the luxury tax (as a means of repressing salaries). Owners will probably try to keep the 60 man bubble taxi squad program in lieu of spending millions on a minor league system that did not play in 2020. (It is important to note that minor league players won the first part of their class action lawsuit against minor league owners and MLB for being paid less than the minimum wage.)

Another fall out from 2020 is that the Cubs (and most clubs) terminated most of their scouting and training staffs in order to save money. The Cubs were an administrative top heavy organization so it is doubtful that Epstein in his final year will have the budget to spend to re-hire his former troops.

If the Cubs 2020 was a lost season, then 2021 could be a dead one.

NEW PITCHING STAFFS

As baseballs are flying out of ball parks at record numbers, the whole concept of a pitching staff is slowly beginning to change.

Starters are no longer geared toward pitching to contact or going complete games. It is now a rarity that a starter goes past 7 innings.  The new normal is 5 innings. This puts a huge strain on the bullpen, which is now bloated to at least 9 relievers.

Some managers are using "bullpen" days to get through series. The relief corps pitch the entire game, usually 2 or 3 innings for long relievers and then the set up men and closer.  A few managers have decided to start a tough reliever to get through the top of the order, then bring in their normal starter in the second inning. This avoids seeing the opponent's top three hitters three times in a game (as stats show a dramatic fall off in pitching performance the third time through the line up card).

The need for bullpen arms absorbing more innings per season is not lost on GMs (or player agents). Middle relievers or swingmen have had steady salary increases in free agency because teams now find Andrew Miller type relievers golden (they can be middle inning "stoppers," long relievers or even closers).

There are still several stud "ace" starters in the major leagues. But there are turning into baseball's dinosaurs: high salaries and less performance.

The real push for change in starting pitching is going to be economic.

The Cubs example is telling: the team was squeezed by an business mandate not to go over the luxury cap of $206 million. The five starters are being paid $85.5 million for 2019. That is 41.5% of the lux cap space. The 9 relievers in the bullpen are being paid $55.6 million. That is 27.2 % of the lux cap space. In total, pitching at the start of the season took up $141.1 million (68.7%) of payroll budget. Or an average of $10.1 million/pitcher.

That only leaves $64.9 million to be distributed to 11 position players (for an average of $5.9 million per player.) This is why the Cubs could not make any major off-season moves for position bats because it is hard to find very good every day players for $6 million/year. Veteran bench players get that kind of money.

The budget dollars will be allocated away from pitching toward hitting if traditional starter roles are going to be decreased in the near future. (We have discussed the concept of pitching pods in the past; a system where 3 pitchers are grouped together to pitch a game; 4 pods equal 12 pitchers - - - with two additional relievers in reserve. It is a modified bullpen game but with designated pitching squads instead of a traditional rotation.)  A pitching staff of relievers may cost $6 million/arm or $84 million, which is still less than the Cubs opening rotation cost of $85.5 million. Then you almost have double the amount to spend on position players.

Will this work? We will not know until it is tried and tested in a real season(s).

OPENERS & CLOSERS

There is an earthquake type shift in front offices. The glory days of "ace" starting pitchers are going to start to fade . . .  fast. Just like the NFL has caused the running back position to become a generic commodity in its pass-happy offenses, baseball is soon going to put less emphasis on starting rotations to win games.

The trend has been accelerating this year. A report indicated that the amount of innings pitched by MLB starters is down 37 percent. It means that starters are pitching more than 2 innings less than they did a decade ago. It is apparent when you watch games. It is now a rarity for a starter to pitch into the 7th inning. A generation ago, starters all took the mound with the one goal of tossing a complete game. Today, starters are content with finishing just 5 innings.

Teams are constructing their bullpens not as emergency help for faltering starters but as a machine to win games. During Kansas City's World Series runs, it developed a killer bullpen of three dominant, "shut down" arms in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. If the Royals were winning after 6, the game was over. The emphasis began to shift to the back three or four innings and not the front five.

Stats gurus have allegedly found that starting pitchers get hammered more when a batter sees them for the third time during a game. The logic is that the batter has now seen all the pitches of the starter so he can better anticipate what he will see. Also, the stat men found that the key innings in a game for a starter are the 2nd to 7th. Therefore, the Padres developed the concept of an "opener," a relief pitcher who would throw the first inning then give way to the starting pitcher. That means the starter will see the top of the opponent's order one less time during the game. This is how odd pitching metrics have gotten.

Closers used to be just mop up guys. Now, they are the highest paid bullpen pieces because for some mental reason, not every relief pitcher can get the last three outs in a game. Closers typically have one lights-out pitch; a 100 mph fastball, or a devastating fork ball. They are strike out pitchers. Teams now set up their bullpens just to get to the closer.

With starters only covering 5 innings, they are really no different than traditional "long" relievers who can spot start or throw 3 innings in a game. Long relievers are not paid as well as starters or closers. But in the new pitching playbook, they may become even more valuable.

Some teams without a decent fifth starter will result to having a "bullpen" day where long relievers will try to get 6 innings in the book before turning it over to the last three bullpen arms. In the near future, all teams may employ bullpen days for every game.

Teams are already carrying 12 or 13 pitchers on the 25 man roster. That is why so many teams, especially the Cubs, try to find bench players who can play multiple positions because they have very limited substitutes. The idea of expanding the roster to 26 players does not mean an extra bat will be added to help managers. Some teams are now employing the dual role of a pitcher/position player. The Reds have a relief pitcher who also can bat well and play the outfield. It is not usual for star pitchers to be the best player on their youth, high school or college teams. And it is not usual that they used to be the best hitter and fielder at multiple positions. But they lose part of the skill set when they just concentrate on pitching.

Even colleges are now concentrating on developing relief pitchers such as closers. In the past, Steve Stone remarked that all relief pitchers were "failed" starter. College World Series teams often have designated closers. Minor league systems now quickly separate prospects into starters and relievers as it is now just as important to find closers and long relievers.

Ownership has a vested stake in this new pitching philosophy. It should cost less payroll. the age of the $20-30 million starter will be over. Relief pitchers salaries have been going up recently, but closers usually top out around fifth starter money. If a team can save half of the starters annual salary, that is pure profit to the owners.

LAME DUCKS

Maddon said Morrow, who currently is on the 10-day injured list, struggled in his recovery from throwing off the mound earlier this week.

"The bounceback after the last time out wasn't as good," Maddon said. "So, we've got to back off of him once again and just slow things down. That's just where he's at. It's not unlike what had been going on (last season). It was all trending very well and then, like I said, this last time, just not as good. So, we just have to pay attention to what he's saying."

Pat Hughes was marveling yesterday  on the radio that the home crowd could reach 38,000.
Really? A 70 degree Saturday on a holiday weekend and only get 38,000 fans? It should have been
48,000 standing room only. But the game casts continue to hard sell single game, special event and
suite ticket packages like a desperate snake oil salesman. It is another sign that money is tight for the Cubs. Every unsold ticket is a lost asset.

It does go to show that Ricketts have clamped down on pennies and dimes for the baseball club.
Morrow cannot be counted on returning, and there is zero movement to find his replacement.
Kimbrel is still unemployed which is baffling for clubs in need of relief pitching.

But Theo has repeated his Boston downfall: overspending on players who underperform.
Morrow $21 million; Chatwood $33 million; Darvish $126 million = $180 million bust.
If you add the Hamels $20 million option to cover for the bad Darvish deal, that is an entire
season salary budget on four players.

As Maddon is the lame duck manager, I now wonder if cutting off the dollar taps by ownership
is a real signal that Theo & his Gang are also lame ducks (Theo only has 2 years to go on his contract).

Kenney continues to hype that the new Cubs channel will be like finding an untapped gold mine,
but he is as delusional as Theo was with his recent pitching acquisitions. The Dodger Network deal has been a disaster for broadcast partner Time-Warner. Regional sports networks are in flux due to the Disney-Fox merger. The Cubs trying to start their own network in an era of cord cutting cable viewers without a strong local partner is a recipe for disaster.

The Cubs struggled to get to .500, then Darvish gave up two back-to-back jacks in the first inning to set the tone for another bad day. He calmed down some, but was pulled again in the fifth inning when the offense failed to show up. Now, Chatwood takes the mound for a Lester DL start. The consensus is today's pitching is going to be bad as Chatwood became the lame duck when Hamels returned to help anchor the rotation.

The old saying is true: you cannot win the division early in the season, but you can certainly lose it. The NL Central continues to be highly competitive, with the Pirates surging past the Brewers into first place.

TILT

The Cubs have started the urgency of the 2019 campaign like a bunch of Keystone cops falling over each other. It started with horrible pitching, then moved on to terrible fielding, then moved on to lack of hitting, and finally to questionable base running. After another bullpen meltdown, Jon Lester claimed that the team feels "the pressure" from the front office.

Yes, Theo Epstein was mad at the end of last season. He wants the players to take accountability for their performance. Prospects are no longer potential players. He wants results. Now.

But in reality, Epstein is both diverting the blame and redirecting his anger against ownership. He created this roster of underperforming, overpaid pitchers. He created the atmosphere of dread by not extending Joe Maddon's contract. He overspent on players in the past two seasons which gave him no payroll flexibility in this off-season to fix any glaring problems.

In all levels of the organization, the Cubs have fallen flat on their faces.

The fan angst will boil with another Yu Darvish start. He says he is fine; his pitching coach thinks there is a problem with his pelvic tilt; or vice versa. The embrace of big data in pitching (the
Cubs have a motion capture system where each pitcher in spring training threw a "base line" delivery) is further messing with the mental aspects of the pitcher's routine. Carl Edwards suddenly showed up in the first series with a new (illegal) delivery. There is no confidence that the coaching staff has any real insight or control of the staff.

But things get stranger. In the midst of the losing streak, David Bote suddenly gets a five year, $15 million extension. WTF? Bote got an extension before Schwarber, Almora, Baez or Contreras? Bote is not even a STARTER. Why is he getting a raise five times more than he would normally earn? Is Theo a spendthrift? Or was this giving ownership a quick middle finger? Clearly, the front office is also on tilt with this extension.

The team is playing bad, the front office has no answers, and the Brewers are off to a hot start. This all plays into the gloom and doom of the season opening 9 game road trip.

ODDITIES FROM CUB CAMP

It was very strange that the Cubs reworked new reliever Brach's contract.

The Cubs just signed him, but then after a week of spring training, decided to rework the deal.

The deal basically back loaded the original money into the second year, saving about a million dollars in payroll for 2019.

If the Cubs are so tight with cash now to rework a middle reliever's new deal, things are going to be a problem throughout the season if injuries to pitchers come to the forefront as many experts have predicted. The reason for this situation has been that Epstein and Hoyer have yet to draft and develop any major league starting pitcher. Instead, they have had to rely on more expensive, veteran arms to fill the pitching staff. Worse, the Cubs farm system now ranks near the bottom.

Another oddity is that there really is no competition for any roster spot. Usually there is a competition for at least a bench role or a starting pitcher or relief arms. But the Cubs, since they did not do any major moves, are basically bringing back the 2018 squad. Delcasco replaced LaStella as the last bench player. Brach replaces Chavez.

As a result, Cub fans have not been excited about spring training. Most of the recent off season news have been about off-the-field transgressions by players and ownership. The PERCOTA prediction of 79 wins did not sit well with the club (even though the history of those predictions is very poor). But the rest of the NL Central has improved more so than the Cubs.

It is also odd that a team with 95 victories is making their star manager go through the final season of his contract without an extension. The writing seems to be on the wall that the front office is at odds with Maddon over how he has run the club. But the front office also has to be held accountable for the revolving door of hitting instructors. Maddon, and his $6 million salary, appear to be gone at the end of the season, barring a World Championship.

The question remains will the players play hard for a lame duck manager. A few need to prove themselves: Bryant and Darvish coming back from injuries; Contreras from a bad year at the plate.

The Cubs will start the season with the bad finish of 2018 front and center. Is there enough leaders in the young core to motivate the club to keep the championship window open?

PAINTED IN THE CORNER

The Cubs bumping up to the luxury tax threshold which Ownership refuses to surpass, the Cubs have to go to battle with the guys they have under contract.

The lack of flexibility and the vacuum of AAA talent has painted the Cubs front office into a corner.

How trapped are they?

This year, very.

Next year?

The following contracts are set to fall off the books for 2020:

Hamels SP $20 million
Zobrist IN $12 million
Chisek RP $6.5 million
Kintzler RP $5 million

A total of $43.5 million will be freed up next season.

Is that a lot?

Probably not.

If you add in the exit of Joe Maddon's $6 million salary, the net figure probably goes up to $48.5 million.

The problem is that the Cubs have been in a cycle of constantly rebuilding their pitching staff because the Epstein-McLeod scouting machine has failed to draft and develop a quality starting pitcher. They don't have the pitching prospects to make veteran trades so they continually have to overpay for relief pitchers. This off-season the Cubs had to lurk around the discount bin to land Brach.With Morrow's return uncertain, there seems to be the likelihood of a closer-by-committee bullpen.

NEW METRICS PLAYER VALUE

The Machado rumors heated up with contradictory reports on the White Sox latest offer
(is it 7 years or 8 years? $200 million or $225 million?)

I read an interesting follow up article on the new aspect of the off-season: "player values."
Player agents are using the old system to value their clients: WAR from past seasons
was worth $8 to 10 million.

Teams have economists look at a new stat: player revenue generation. How much more
revenue does a free agent bring to the team? Teams found it is only about $1.5 million/WAR.

The great divide in valuation is probably better expressed as what a player brings to the table.
If a team is about winning, great. But most teams are now about making money because of
high debt loads and investors wanted return on their investment (dividends).

A team like the White Sox could get a substantial revenue jump with signing Machado.
If he draws in another 5,000 fans a home game, that would be at least $20 million in new revenue.
But that may not be enough to get his $30 million/season asking price. If he draws 10,000 more
fans per game, then he works as a profit center and a good team investment.

Teams like the Nationals are already at their local revenue ceiling. Signing Harper would not
increase the top line at all. How many new season ticket holders will there be if Harper re-signs?
Not many.

This is why teams are more focused on touting and developing their minor league players.
When they get to the majors, they are paid a league minimum. For home games, it costs
the team about $6,800. If a rookie can generate enough buzz to get more than 140 new fans
through the gate, the team is making positive revenue growth at minimum cost.

Teams are now looking at two component for player value. First, past performance metrics.
Second, cost-benefit analysis on whether the player will enhance local revenues. The latter seems
to be gathering more traction in front offices.

CATCH-22

You are damned if you do; and damned if you don't.


Catch-22.


It continues to be a quiet off-season for the Cubs, though president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said in the Chicago Tribune  that the team remains active in exploring various options for upgrades.  “There are times to be aggressive and times to be patient, and there are times when you can be aggressive and times where you have to be patient,” Epstein said.  “Every off-season is unique. We’re working hard, and there are a lot of things we’re trying to do behind to the scenes to make sure we have a successful season next year.  I know thus far we haven’t added the big names that get the fans excited. I understand that’s part of the expectations in the off-season.”  Trades, more so than free agents, have taken up much of Epstein’s time as of late, he told Paul Sullivan.  They cannot make a big play for a free agent like Bryce Harper only if they can carve out enough payroll room.


Ken Rosenthal wrote that baseball’s “current economic system is outdated and flawed.”  Teams are increasingly leery of signing players to ultra-long contracts, yet are also just as worried about signing players to contracts with fewer years but higher average annual salaries out of fear of crossing the luxury tax threshold.  The result is “baseball’s version of a Catch-22,” Rosenthal writes, and he also points out that teams seem unnaturally adverse to making luxury tax payments given that relatively tiny amount of money actually spent on the tax.


Rosenthal's analysis is only rudimentary. Baseball's economic business model is changing towards uncertainty. The sport has had very good revenue, but the idea that current revenue partners like cable television distributors are going to poor billions into national and local TV rights is a thing of the past. Cable viewership is being slashed on a monthly basis. The main entertainment demographic (24-54) is moving quickly toward on-demand choices through streaming services, internet videos and on-line game platforms.


Baseball, first and foremost, is a business. On both sides of the labor issue. Each side wants to get the maximum out of a contract. Owners have been burned by long term deals that turn into dead money. Players want to be paid for past performance and/or market values tied to other (better) players rather than statistical projections of future performance (which is usually less valuable).


A team wanting to sign a $400 million player contract for 10 years must have some reasonable guarantee that their team net revenue is going to go up at least $40 million a year. With some teams local broadcast rights hovering around that number to begin with, it is extremely difficult to think that those fees will double overnight to pay for a superstar. And teams with high attendance cannot imagine that signing a superstar will increase the gate and ticket revenue. Many teams believe that they have hit revenue ceilings.


As such, owners will not lose money long term. Ownership is getting more cautious and strict on how much money a GM can spend on players. These are not artificial constraints but business reality for teams with high debt loads, and mortgage covenants. Player agents do not realize the potential squeeze some teams may be under.


 The other aspect of cost control is a team's minor league system. More GMs are focused on building a deep minor league system because those players can be cost controlled for six years. Teams have found winning formulas by playing young players at the major league level. You do not have to field a team of All-Stars (at high salaries) to be playoff competitive.


This is the second off-season where the new economic shift is taking agents back a few steps from their client expectations. Only one team, the Phillies, announced that they were willing to spend like a drunken sailor. But there has been little action as quality first and second tier players start to get antsy as winter rolls toward spring.

MASH UNIT

Did Theo's parents want to become a doctor? A hospital administrator?
Because he keeps running an expensive and dumb MASH unit.

But his latest signing makes absolutely no sense at all:

Former A's pitcher Kendall Graveman is not likely to pitch in 2019. He underwent Tommy John surgery this last July and was non-tendered by  Oakland in November. The Chicago Cubs just signed the injured free agent $575,000 anyway. The Cubs have a history of signing unsigned, injured players to pay for their year of rehab. But why? The player would have to do that on his own. I am not aware of any other major league team signing injured players NOT to play them.

This deal is being sold as a long-term return for Chicago. Not necessarily in 2019, but in 2020. While Graveman’s contract will pay him just more than half a million dollars to rehab, it’s the player option for $3 million going into next year’s off-season is the alleged selling point for both sides.



The deal gives the 28-year-old RHP a little more than a full year to get himself healthy and prove that he can pitch the way he did from 2015-17 when he posted a 4.11 ERA over 407 innings with 255 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.359. But those numbers are not stellar for a starting pitcher.


If for some reason Graveman can make it back in 2019, the Cubs will give him a payday of about $2 million, according to Fancred’s Jon Heyman.

But here is the problem: TJ surgery rehab averages 19 months. At best, he comes back mid-September to throw in a couple of games to get $2 million?????  Even if he does not pitch but is fully recovered, why did the Cubs not keep a TEAM OPTION to sign him for 2020?  Graveman can take the Cubs money, get healthy and walk away into the free agent market to make more money as a STARTING pitcher. Do the Cubs think they are "buying" his loyalty for a half million dollars? Think again. If Graveman does not return to form, which is possible, then he gets to stick the Cubs with the option of $3 million more to continue to rehab or sit out another season.

It is stupid to pay a free agent money to rehab when you can spend the major league minimum for a player who will actually be on the major league roster in 2019 (i.e. a player like Bote).

The Cubs have done some strange things this off-season, but this move is absolutely the dumbest thing the front office has done. The team stated it is short of financial capital to make moves this off-season, but this signing is literally throwing money at a player who cannot contribute anything of meaningful value in 2019.

PAINTED INTO A CORNER

Have you noticed that the Cubs have not been mentioned in any
trade rumors or free agent negotiations?

I heard last week on the radio that one reason may be that
Theo "borrowed" from this year's baseball budget to pay for
Darvish, Morrow and Chatwood. So that may be a bitter pill
on any future spending because it was already spent.

Plus, Darvish, Morrow and Chatwood represent $41.5 million
in 2019 payroll. Add in Heyward, it jumps to 61.5 million
or almost a third of 2019 total payroll budget.

The Cubs are on the hook for $158 million on 13 signed players.
The Cubs still have to sign 27 other players to make the 40 man
roster - - - with some expensive arbitration players like Bryant
in the mix.

The projected salaries for the arb players:

• Kris Bryant (3.171) – $12.4MM
• Kyle Hendricks (4.081) – $7.6MM
• Javier Baez (3.089) – $7.1MM
• Addison Russell (3.167) – $4.3MM
• Kyle Schwarber (3.086) – $3.1MM
• Mike Montgomery (3.089) – $3.0MM
• Carl Edwards Jr. (2.134) – $1.4MM

That totals at least $38.9 million. I think Bryant will get more.

That leaves another 20 players, even at the minimum of $555,000
or $11.1 million creating a current projected payroll of
$208.00 which is dead on the luxury tax number.

This is the corner that Theo has painted himself in.

And last week, he admitted that 2019 is going to be difficult.

On Thursday, Epstein  called the 2019 season a year of ‘‘reckoning’’ for the organization.

As the SunTimes reported,  Epstein  made it clear that, barring moves that free up significant payroll space, the Cubs won’t be adding a nine-figure commitment to their books for the fourth time in five years.

The big, problematic contracts with large balances are clear:   Jason Heyward’s $184 million deal  Yu Darvish’s $126 million contract, and  the $25.5 million owed to right-hander Tyler Chatwood the next two years.

‘‘You can’t just keep shopping without making things fit for your roster and for your payroll and the situation that you’re in,’’ Epstein said. ‘‘I understand the desire for a big name every winter, and there are winters where we do acquire a big name and there will be winters where we don’t acquire a big name. I don’t know what category this winter will fall into yet, but there’s a chance that it’s going to be a winter where we don’t acquire a big name from outside the organization.’’

Nothing is more telling that the Cubs are up against the payroll wall than:

1. Having to trade Smyly's $7 million contract in order to exercise the $20 million option on Hamels.

2. Not having $4 million extra to spend to re-sign Chavez to stabilize a bullpen that will now not have Morrow at the start of the season (he had late elbow surgery in November after sitting out the second half of the season).

Other media outlets outside of Chicago have reported that other teams have heard that the Cubs do not have money to spend to sign top tier free agents. 

Adding to the problem is that the Cubs have very little trade capital. The Cubs farm system is near the lower ranks in MLB. On a scouting scale of 20-80, the Cubs best prospect rates 50. And the Cubs best prospects are at the Class A level. The only trading chips then are on the major league roster, but those candidates (besides Baez) had very down years.

The Cubs overspent in the past years after they tanked to stockpile high draft choices. The plan worked and a championship was won. But the plan was unsustainable when ownership was directing massive resources ($750 million) on non-baseball improvements and business enterprises. The Cubs team is left high and dry with their old roster and bad contract decisions.

 

2019 will be a year of transition. The Cubs players could rebound to have a chance for another championship. Or the team could see their championship window shut. There are no guaranteed dynasties in sports even if you throw a lot of money at it . . .  just think of the 1985 Bears.

TOP SPENDERS

The Associated Press broke down this year's big spenders, i.e. the Usual Suspects.

The New York Yankees are on track to open the season this week with baseball's seventh-highest payroll, their lowest ranking since 1992.

The Boston Red Sox will top the major leagues at about $223 million, ending the Los Angeles Dodgers' four-year run as the top spender. San Francisco will be second at around $203 million, and the Chicago Cubs are set to be third at about $183 million.

The Dodgers and Washington Nationals will each be at approximately $180 million, and the Los Angeles Angels will be next at about $170 million. The Yankees will be at around $167 million — their lowest payroll since 2003.

 Most of these teams were at the top last year on the big spender list. So much so that most of the teams did not add very much "new" payroll above last year's total.

With the luxury tax at $197 million, the Red Sox and Giants are going to get hit with a surcharge (and be really hurt in 2019 if they are over the amount for a second year in a row). The Cubs, Dodgers and Nationals have only a marginal threshold to stay under the cap. Barring a significant injury, these clubs will stand pat during the season.

The Yankees are interesting because they have room to sign a valuable free agent left on the board (Greg Holland?) if the need arises in the near future. The Yankees lineup is powerful, even with the Bird injury. Even so, the prospect of the Yankees having $36 million more to spend in 2019 when Bryce Harper hits the open market will be a story line for this year.

Baseball has developed a harsh bell curve in salary structures. As the big teams continue to spend, the small market teams seem to have contracted their payrolls to the point where the union is crying foul. The Rays, Pirates and Marlins have been giving away veteran players in exchange for "controllable" year prospects (at major league minimum salaries.) The concept of the tear down rebuild has worked for the last two World Series champions, so the union cannot claim that that business model is flawed. However, the Marlins and Rays seem to be in perpetual rebuild mode.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/national-business/article206913694.html#storylink=cpy

WAIT TO NEXT YEAR

The hot stove league is colder than the outside temperature.

There have been many reasons and theories floated about on why several marquee free agents have not signed contracts a month or so before pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

Player agents think "collusion" by owners in trying to cut down player salaries.

Teams retort that they are being cautious about spending, especially the big market spenders like the Yankees and Dodgers who have been aggressively managing their rosters to get under the luxury tax threshold. The CBA's luxury tax is a soft salary cap - - - it does not stop a team from over spending that amount, but it comes with increasing severe penalties including loss of draft picks.

Under the current trend, baseball draft picks are more important than signing a old free agent. General managers believe in the mantra of "controllable" players - - - young stars that the team can hold onto for six seasons. A team with a core group of players in their mid-20s (like the 2016 Cubs) can win a championship at league minimum salaries. The league emphasis now is on drafting and developing home grown players, and pushing them through the minor league system faster.

Owners are getting leery of having large amounts of "dead money" on the books. A veteran free agent wants more years to their final contract than their performance. Teams used to view the extra two years on a long term deal a player "bonus." But with the tax ramifications and the looming prospect of broadcast revenue going down (as cable viewership and advertising rates to drop by 2020), owners do not want to be spending tens to hundreds of millions of dollars on players who are no longer on their roster.

Some teams are also gearing up for tax code changes. Two have been touched upon briefly in the media: new depreciation rules and entertainment deductions. Under the Bill Veeck Rule, baseball teams were allowed to depreciate player contracts (Veeck convinced the IRS that a player's performance level will drop over age like a piece of equipment) as well as deduct the actual salary paid to the player. This double deduction was a tax windfall to teams, especially with big money deals. But that is apparently going away under the recently passed tax bill. On the revenue side, limits on corporate entertainment expenses will adversely impact sky box sales and corporate season tickets given to clients or vendors. Teams cannot budget renewals of those big ticket items if corporations will not be able to deduct the cost.

And then there is future spending concept.

Next year's free agent market is much better than 2018: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Kuechel, Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy, Adam Jones, Gio Gonzalez, Andrew Miller, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, Andrew McCutchen, and Craig Kimbrel could be available.

As Yahoo Sports reported, Cubs team chairman Tom Ricketts and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein talked about that dynamic during the Cubs Convention this past weekend. "It's a number of factors. Every team has to make decisions in their own best interest, and that's what's going on," Epstein said  when asked why this off-season has been so slow-moving. "But there's some macroeconomic trends in the game that probably after the last collective-bargaining agreement teams are just trying to position themselves the best way they can, probably in some cases with one eye on next season's free-agent market, trying to get their payroll where they want it to be. It's hard to say it's any one reason. It's probably a combination of factors. But I don't know that we've ever seen anything quite like this."

"Next year's free-agent class is different than this year's free-agent class," Ricketts said, putting it mildly. "I think what you're seeing with teams out there would rather have dry powder a year from now. … There's a lot of pieces and parts, but ultimately, I think teams are trying to keep their powder dry."

Perhaps, but the Cubs' front office keeps stating its desire to add a starting pitcher before this off-season is over. Epstein opened the door to that acquisition perhaps not being of the bank-breaking variety, though, indicating over the weekend that it could be a move that simply provides depth for a starting staff realistically no deeper than five guys at the moment. Until then, Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish and Alex Cobb are still the top free agent starters who have not generated much interest or a bidding war for their services.

The Cubs also have other looming financial commitments if you look further into the future. Kris Bryant (who just set an arbitration renewal record deal), Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell and Javy Baez are all slated to become free agents after the 2021 season. The team's top four starting pitchers - Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana and Tyler Chatwood - are all slated to become free agents after the 2020 season. 

Epstein has admitted in the past that he has had to be creative in structuring his payroll because he is working with a tight budget from the business side of the team. Saving money on this year's budget can be used next year. But Epstein is also very fond about "his guys" like Schwarber, Bryant and Russell to let them get away to free agency. He needs to start balancing long term extension offers to the key players. 

So this off-season will probably remain very quiet until the end of January as teams take a much longer term view of their operations and finances.

TRASH CAN FIRE

The Miami Marlins are a trash can fire that is soon to spread throughout baseball's reputation.

MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred insisted Wednesday that the commissioner’s office was not aware before the sale of the team that the Marlins’ new owners planned to dramatically slash payroll, a fact disputed by two people directly involved in the negotiating process.

In a combative interview on ESPN Radio, host Dan Le Batard told Manfred: “We are starting with a lie” when Manfred said he did not know the plans of new owners Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman during the approval process.

“I’m not going to have you call me a liar!” Manfred said.

In Chicago, we were acutely aware of the sale process when the bankrupt Tribune company sold the Cubs to the Ricketts family. MLB has strict financial review of any team bidders. MLB has rules in place on team debt ratios and ownership capital requirements. MLB also has access to team financials in regard to revenue sharing and luxury tax formulas. It also has had to step in to actually advance payroll for several clubs in the last decade. Every bidder needs to provide MLB with a detailed business plan so owners who vote on the franchise transfer can be assured that the new owners will not bankrupt the team.

Two people directly involved in the sales process said that Jeter and Sherman were required to tell other owners their intentions with payroll during the approval process, and that they informed the other owners that payroll would be cut from $115 million to the $85 million to $90 million range, with $85 million used at times and $90 million other times in those discussions.

Last year’s team would have cost about $140 million if it were kept together. The Marlins’ current projected payroll for 2018 stands at about $94 million after the team traded Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna.

Pressed by Le Batard about whether he was aware of Jeter’s plan, Manfred said: “No. We did not have player specific plans from the Miami Marlins or any other team during the approval ownership process. Those are decisions the individual owners make. We do not approve operating decisions by any ownership, new owner or current owners. As a result, the answer is no.”

Just as any bidder does due diligence to set its offer price, MLB does a due diligence on potential ownership groups, including their background, business skills and financial deep pockets. MLB was aware that the Jeter group borrowed more than $400 million of the sale price. With that debt load, the bank would need to have security and covenants for timely principal and interest payments over the short term of the obligation.

Besides Jeter coming to town to burn down the roster, Marlins fans were upset that Jeter kicked out fan ambassadors and terminated a long time scout while he was in the hospital. The new ownership immediately dismissed four well-known Marlins executives:  special assistant to the president Jeff Conine, who goes by the nickname Mr. Marlin, and three special assistants to the owner — Hall of Famers Andre Dawson and Tony Perez, and former manager Jack McKeon, who led the Marlins to the 2003 World Series championship.

Jeter was also criticized for not attending the Winter Meetings. Jeter also avoided the press after the Stanton trade. 

However, this week Jeter held a tense town hall with season-ticket holders Tuesday night. He was taken to task by angry fans. Jeter was under fire for selling off the team’s best players in a payroll slashing move that agent Scott Boras called MLB’s “pawn shop.” The Giancarlo Stanton trade for a nominal return angered fans as well as the Marlins have also traded notable big-name (and big-money) players like Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna this offseason.

Several fans questioned Jeter's moves and motivation. One fan mocked the $1.2 billion sale of the Marlins, saying Jeter spent "$1.2 billion and then ran out of money," ESPN reported.

Another fan told Jeter: "You act like you ran out of money. You're not going to win here with dancing girls. You're going to win with ballplayers who know how to win. The fans are alienated. They're upset. That's what you're dealing with here."

One memorable exchange involved "Marlins Man," a Marlins fan famous for traveling around the country to various high-profile sporting events and being seen on television wearing bright orange Marlins gear. He told Jeter he wouldn't pay high prices for a "triple-A team."

Marlins Man also asked to be more involved with the team. Jeter apparently drew laughs by offering to let him throw out the first pitch if he renewed his season tickets on a 10-year plan.

At times, the meeting got messy. The Miami Herald reported a crying fan told Jeter they could have signed a pitcher and contended for the playoffs, to which Jeter asked which pitchers they could have signed. When Jeter told fans to be patient, an older man said he didn't have many more years left.
The Marlins have posted a losing record for eight straight seasons and have not made the playoff since 2002. Jeter tried to explain his rationale to the angry fans.

"You can't throw money at a problem and dig a bigger and bigger hole and not have any depth in the organization,'' Jeter said. "You have to build from the bottom up. "I hear your pain. I know you've been through a lot. But we're trying to build something that is sustainable, and this is the only way to do it."

Other teams have announced rebuild plans (such as the Astros, Cubs and White Sox) with the expectation to fans that there would be some lean years ahead.  But Jeter's plan was crude, arrogant and condescending to fans without a clear explanation of how ownership is going to create a championship team. Trading away all your good players for no real value not only hurts the fan base but destroys clubhouse chemistry. Several Marlins players are now demanding trades because the roster has been gutted to be not competitive in 2018.

When former owner Jeff Loria owned the Marlins, he was a laughingstock in the league. He was crude, brash and blind to the needs of his own fan base. He once sued his own season ticket holders who complained they were not getting what they had been promised. With the sale of the franchise, fans thought they would be getting an owner with a new vision for the future. Instead, they got a harsher version of the former hated owner, Loria 2.0.

And MLB gets a major hit to its reputation for allowing a new owner to crash and burn a franchise within a few weeks of taking it over.

NEW NORMAL

You will soon hear the rumblings by agents about collusion.

Collusion in sports is where teams actively get together to adversely impact player contracts and benefits.

In this off-season, not one free agent player has received more than a three year contract.

The largest pitching contract had been Chatwood's three year, $38 million deal.

The hot stove league has been very cool, especially with top name pitchers like Darvish and Arrieta looking for 5 or 6 year deals near the $200 million range.

But the climate around baseball front offices has changed. Sabermetrics has given general managers new tools to evaluate (and in negotiations, de-value) players performance. The new CBA rules regarding the penalties for breaching the luxury tax threshold in multiple years have made even big money teams like the Yankees and Dodgers punting many player contracts to get under the $195 million cap.

In addition, teams now believe major league "controllable" assets are more valuable than established free agent veterans. Fans have come around to believe in a team's "rebuilding" process to go through some very bad years on the road to a championship (see, the Cubs and the Astros).

The new rebuild model has a focus of developing a young core of position players that a team can control for six full seasons. In conjunction with that model, expensive starting pitching is being replaced with more bullpen arms. Last season, only 15 starters threw more than 200 innings. The rise of using bullpen arms in the 5th inning of games is becoming routine. Relievers are less expensive than starting pitchers (even though this off-season most of the moves have been overpaying relievers in two year deals).

Because starters have had long term deals with the fear that the back end is dead money, teams are tentative to overwork them in spring training and during the season. The result has not stopped injuries and TJ surgeries.

Very few teams have pitching depth in their minor league system. The White Sox are the exception. If a team can develop their own starting pitching, it can effectively save hundreds of millions of dollars in payroll obligations. Those savings could be used to pay for a stud free agent to fill a final roster need (a Bryce Harper or Manny Machado).

Teams have become much more principled in their decision making processes. In the past, only Jerry Reinsdorf had a strict rule not to sign a starting pitcher for more than 4 years. And when that rule was not followed, the Sox got burned (example, Jon Danks).

In the past, teams expected their rotation to handle more than 68 percent of the innings thrown during a season (1000 of 1458 IP). Now, it is down to 60 percent which puts another 125 IP on the bullpen. In order to cope with this production issue, teams may think about going with a 6th starter to take those 125 IP or have one or two long relievers capable of throwing 3 or 4 innings from the pen.

The only other way is to adapt pitching philosophy to get more outs. The Athletics had a development strategy that every pitcher in their system had to learn to throw a change-up. The change-up became the team's dominate strike out pitch. Last season, high power teams like the Cubs were caught off-guard by curve ball pitchers. It is said that any major league hitter can hit a fast ball. It is harder to adjust to a slide or straight curve ball after a fast ball sequence.

The star free agents may have to wait a long time this off-season before signing new deals. This plays well with teams who are looking for a discount in years and in average annual pay from players.

THE FUTURE

There has been one constant throughout the history of baseball: owners desire to make a profit.

In order to keep a competitive balance (and profit sharing), MLB has a luxury tax on payrolls currently pegged at $195 million. The penalty for going over the ceiling is 50 percent to 92 percent. This is a soft salary cap where big market teams like the Dodgers and Yankees can easily absorb.

But the future is rapidly changing that overspend model. The Yankees sold most of their interest in the YES Network, which was the cash cow that fueled those free agent filled teams. The Dodgers got a billion dollar team network deal with TW, which turned into a bust when cable operators balked at paying high subscription fees.

The cable industry, the tinder for the rapid rise in profits and player salaries, is losing three million subscribers a quarter. The biggest reason was the surcharge of sports network fees on monthly bills.  The second reason was the internet and other means of consuming sports than television sets. The third, and possibly most glaring reason, is that the younger generation is less interested in traditional sports franchises. Young kids are more involved in their technology of video games and e-sports than play baseball in the park. In addition, teams have made it almost cost prohibitive for a family to go attend a major league game.

The outside profit center for many teams, the publicly financed sweetheart ball park deal, like the cable money is going to go extinct. Not one publicly financed sports stadium has created an "economic boom" for the municipality. In fact, the associated debt with those deals can be crippling taxpayers. With more and more cities, counties and states in massive fiscal holes and bankruptcy, the community revolt against such capitalism welfare projects will end.

But on the other side, star players are looking for massive contracts. Bryce Harper nears free agency with agent speculation that he will demand anywhere from $30 million to $50 million per season. ESPN opined that Harper could easily become the first $500 million player in sports history. When baseball franchises are worth at the high tide level of $1.5 billion, a superstar player's demand for a third of the team value makes the business model absurd.

Teams are no longer owned or controlled by millionaires looking to massage their country club egos with sports championships. Most teams are corporations who have to answer to shareholders. Investors demand return on their capital in the form of dividends, earnings and appreciation. The easy cost control item on a team is payroll.

In the near future, baseball as a game will fundamentally change. There are growing calls to eliminate much of the subjective, human element of game by turning ball and strike calls over to computer grid technology. In essence, the game will be played without umpires - - - merely sensors and real time play reviews at the league office. But even the elimination of umpires will not drastically alter the erosion of the economics of the game.

If the next generation of fans accept virtual reality for reality, then baseball will probably forge ahead to create a digital platform to replace the timeless past time. Whether it be 3D or holographic representation of past, present or computer generated players, baseball could morph into super computer super charged video game.

Fans like their fantasy leagues. They like their smart phone apps. If baseball was compressed into a graphic rich, high octane video game, many would watch. The elimination of players, ball parks, infrastructure costs, team travel, etc. is like a dream to a team accountant.  If the owners can keep a fan base happy without incurring normal costs, then it is virtual game on.

Since most states have privacy and image rights laws, the new virtual baseball game would probably be run by superstar programmers than old player profiles. Instead of expensive Bryce Harper batting third for the Nationals, it could be RobotOF127. The league could set input parameters for team programmers in setting up algorithms for player stats/performance guides. The league would then run on its own servers simulated games using those team rosters. Whether there would be an real time manager making decisions or strategy calls would be possible. It would also be possible that teams would employ a few gamers to act as pitcher, hitters and fielders to add a "human" element to the simulated game.

Simulated games could be played quicker than real ones. Simulated seasons could be finished rather quickly. Playoff games could be subscription or theater events across the country (or across the globe).

One could argue that this is merely a technological fantasy. That there will always be enough players wanting to play professional sports to field teams. That may be true, but in some sports there is a major shift on whether the health risks outweigh the playing time. More parents are taking their children out of contact football at earlier ages. Even professional players are retiring early because of the current research on the ramifications of concussions. Football could be the first major sport to have a serious personnel shortage. In addition, marketing executives note that in order to capture fans early, those kids need to appreciate the sport, i.e. have played it at some level. That is the fantasy connection between seeing your favorite player juke through the line for a touchdown then going outside to play football with friends.

The same could hold true for baseball. It is a time consuming and expensive spectator sport. The lure of going to the ball park for a game is that it was a social event. There was enough time between pitches to converse with friends. But in this internet age, people are less social. They don't see the need to spend three hours talking to other people at an event. They can poke, text or email them.

All consumption of all forms of entertainment are under fire. Baseball is just one option in this ever changing landscape.

A SURPRISE EXTENSION

In Chicago, the talk was about possible extension for Champion Cub players like Kris Bryant or Jake Arrieta.  But it is the White Sox that raised eyebrows with a long term signing of their second year shortstop.

The Tribune reports the  Sox have signed 23-year-old shortstop Tim Anderson to a six-year contract extension.

The contract includes two club options that would give the Sox control of the 23-year-old through 2024 and would bring the value of the deal to $50.5 million if both are exercised. Anderson likely would have been arbitration-eligible for the 2020 season and a free agent after the 2022 season.

It is being reported that no player with less than a year of major-league service time has ever signed such a lucrative deal. Anderson, who hit .283/.306/.432 last year and struck out nine times as often as he walked in 410 at-bats while playing solid defense, will attempt to become the first homegrown White Sox position player to amass 10 WAR with the team since Joe Crede, who last played with the team in 2008. The story notes that Fangraphs only projects Anderson for a .260/.284/.381 batting line.

The White Sox have done well in drafting and developing pitching prospects. But the organization fell into a deep, dark hole when it came to developing position players and hitters. Anderson is really the first farm system position player that fans saw real potential.

But to knock out an extension THREE years before any normal club would even think about one is strange. Rookies often show promise in their first call up, but there is never a guarantee that they will put together a long term career. There is an air of desperation to calm the nerves of fans who don't like the concept of a "total rebuild." But this marks Anderson as one of the White Sox's new "core" players that the team will be built around. It seems like a risk that did not have to be taken so soon.

THE METS BOUNTY

The Mets will again start the new year with one of the league's most impressive starting rotations. And an impossible task to try to keep this core of hard throwing starters on the team for the long term.

As the New York Daily News reported recently, GM Sandy Alderson has the task of trying to control the rotation for longer than their current projected arbitration years.

The idea of a contract extension is that a team offers guaranteed money through a players’ arbitration years in exchange for the first few years of the players’ free agency. Usually the player gets less money than he ideally would get on the open market, but more than he would in arbitration. They are assured that money whether he suffers a long-term injury or his level of play drops off. For a team built around pitching and these young arms in particular (and a team whose farm system is light on top pitching prospects) these decisions are going to be an increasingly important part of shaping the franchise’s future over the next few years.

Alderson said he would not rule out talking to a pitcher’s agent about an extension during the 2017 season, but indicated it was not something he was contemplating before the Mets get to Port St. Lucie.

“I am not going to say we would do or we are not going to do it,” Alderson said of looking to lock up one of their talented young arms long term during the season, “but heading into spring training, it’s not likely going to happen.”

Matt Harvey will be the first of the Mets’ young arms who will test the team’s future plans. He is in his second year of arbitration eligibility and under the Mets’ control for just two more seasons. This is really the last winter the Mets could expect any possible value in an extension. After an All-Star season in 2013, he missed 2014 after Tommy John surgery. He pitched 218 innings, a record for a pitcher in his first season back from the elbow surgery, going 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA in 2015. He struggled most of the 2016 season with command and was shut down in early July after surgery to address the circulation issues associated with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.

Jacob deGrom, who was given an extra year of arbitration through the Super-2 designation this winter, would be the ideal candidate for the Mets to discuss an extension with this winter.
DeGrom had a disappointing 2016, going 7-6 with a 3.04 ERA, after a Rookie of the Year season in 2014 and a stellar 14-8 (2.54 ERA) season in 2015. He had Tommy John early in his minor league career and was shut down early in 2016 to have surgery to move the ulnar nerve in his elbow.
Harvey said earlier this month that the surgery had relieved the issues of numbness in his fingers and he is seeing results as he works through his offseason throwing program. DeGrom was still waiting to begin his throwing program earlier this month when he spoke to reporters. Older than Harvey, deGrom will be 32 when he finally reaches free agency and could be more open to the idea of an extension.

Zack Wheeler is in his first year of arbitration eligibility and reaches free agency after the 2019 season, deGrom after 2020 and Stephen Matz and Noah Syndergaard are only under control through the 2021 season.

So the Mets have a wealth of starting pitchers for the next two seasons. However, the Mets are still running a tight team budget. As much as the talent of the franchise rests with starting pitching, the field position lacks key superstars. Re-signing Yoenis Cespedes was a mandatory cost to hold the fans' off-season attention. But with David Wright's continuing health issues, and no natural center fielder on the roster, the Mets do have glaring holes in their line up.

It is doubtful that the Mets will trade any of their starters to close the line up gaps with hitters. The Mets need to have depth at starter because its power arms are prone to injury.

LIFE OF LUXURY

The Associated Press reported a record six teams are paying baseball's luxury tax this season, led by the Los Angeles Dodgers at $31.8 million and the New York Yankees at $27.4 million, the 14th straight year New York has had to pay the tax.

Other taxed clubs include Boston ($4.5 million), Detroit ($4 million), San Francisco ($3.4 million) and the World Series champion Chicago Cubs ($2.96 million).

Los Angeles owes for the fourth consecutive year and like New York pays at a 50 percent rate on the amount above the $189 million threshold. The Dodgers paid a record $43 million for 2015, and their four-year total is $113 million.

Boston and San Francisco pay at a 30 percent rate as offenders for the second straight year, and Detroit and the Cubs - a first-time payer - are at 17.5 percent.

The purpose of  the luxury tax in an effort to slow spending by large-market clubs and combined with revenue sharing has helped increase the competitive of small-market teams and those in the middle.

The threshold increases to $195 million next year under the new labor contract, and tax rates go up, too. There will be additional surtaxes, raising the rate to as much as 95 percent for the amount above $235 million, with the increase to be phased in for 2017 at the midpoint between the old and new rules.

Los Angeles lowered its payroll from a record $291 million last year to just under $255 million, which topped the major leagues for the third straight year. For purposes of the tax, which uses average annual values and includes benefits, the Dodgers' payroll was nearly $253 million.

Luxury tax payrolls figure to increase slightly across the major leagues next year because of a provision in the labor contract calling for the inclusion of salaries of players sent outright to the minors starting this Dec. 1.

The Yankees' regular payroll was second at $224.5 million, up slightly from last year's $223.6 million, followed by Boston ($200.6 million), Detroit ($199 million), the Cubs ($182 million), San Francisco ($181 million) and the Los Angeles Angels ($173 million).

Milwaukee had the lowest payroll at $65.5 million, down from $98 million last year. Tampa Bay was at $67 million, down from $77 million.

The AP report said that spending on 40-man major league payrolls totaled nearly $4.1 billion, an increase of $200 million.

There is an old saying that a team cannot "buy" a championship. But last year, the majority of big spending teams did well.

The Cubs got 103 wins, Boston 93, Dodgers 91, Giants 87, Detroit 86 and the Yankees 84. That is 544 total team wins by the luxury tax group or a winning percentage of .560 (about 91 wins).