April 9, 2014

A BAD SOLUTION

ESPN's Buster Olney reported that at least one MLB executive has proposed a radical solution to a mild problem.  Olney's source stated that the game should be changed to seven (7) innings.

It would sure solve the 8th and 9th inning closer problems for many clubs.

But it really makes no sense.

Here are the issues MLB is stewing about:

1. The games are too long in duration. Most games now run more than three hours.

2. MLB  is having trouble attracting young fans. The next generation has a perceived shorter attention span.

3. Teams are struggling with injuries, especially with pitchers.

First, the broadcasters would probably like to block out two and half hour blocks on a consistent basis to throw in another syndicated program with possibly more advertising profitability in some markets. However, baseball prides itself on being a historical game - - - which has not changed its basic format in more than 125 years. In that way, people can make player comparisons between eras. A 9 inning game is the standard for all pitching and hitting records.

Second, a study last year indicated that in a three hour game, there is only about 18 minutes of actual "action" on the playing field. If someone wants to speed the game along, batters should not step out after every pitch and/or pitchers should actually throw the next pitch within a few seconds. The expanded use of replay will add several minutes to every game. But, for a fan in the stands, baseball is a "social" game where you sit with friends with the ability to converse between the action. The next generation may have a problem with such basic social skills as conversation, but that is hardly a reason to upend an entire sports legacy.

Third, the specialization of the game is actually hurting the contest. Old school players from even the 1960s and 1970s were expected to start and finish each game, especially the pitchers. Hall of Fame caliber pitchers like Nolan Ryan or Fergie Jenkins expected to throw complete games. Many teams only had four man rotations and limited bullpen arms. But the game got caught up with the numbers of pitches, pitch counts, wear-and-tear on arm strength to morph into a controlled restriction of pitchers ability to pitch complete games. The advent of the bullpen specialist, from the long reliever to the lefty strike out guy, to the set up man and closer put starters on the course to pitch 100 tosses or 5 or 6 innings a start. The amount of pitching changes also slows down the game. Despite all the metrics to keep pitchers healthy, there is no clear evidence that pitching less actually helps.

On the flip side, many owners would want their fans to stay in the ball park as long as possible to purchase merchandise and high-priced concessions. Modern ball parks open the gates earlier or have upscale restaurants to draw fans in both pre-game and post-game. For most fans going to a game, they have already made the decision to make "a day of it."  So, MLB focus on time of game is more to do with their network partners than ball park fans. But many clubs have learned recently that there is more money to be made in broadcasting than in attendance.

A seven inning game would have great ramifications on the sport. It would reduce the innings by 22.2 percent. It would reduce the amount of plate appearances by each player by at least 22.2 percent. With less innings to play, there will be a lesser need for 25 players on the roster. One could easily see a team wanting to save money by cutting a bullpen arm and a bench player to have a 23 man roster for the season. There would be less opportunity for scoring (home runs, triples, etc.). The average starting fielder may not even reach 500 AB in a season.  All of the historic records would become meaningless in any comparison arguments. Baseball would effectively close its books on the past.

The bottom line is that money will make the final decision. If MLB and owners believe it is in their best profitable interest to shorten the game to seven innings, it will be done. But it would seem that decision would be the ultimate Hail Mary pass.