The fall out continues on the Samardzija-Hammel trade.
Again, any criticism of the Cubs front office getting prospects in return has been met with vile abuse.
Hammel was signed to be traded for prospects. That was a given.
Samardzija was also going to be traded since the Cubs could not sign him to a long term deal.
The Cubs got the A's best two prospects in Addison Russell and Billy McKinney. That is what excites the pro-Theo crowd. It follows "the Plan" of rebuilding the farm by acquiring quality prospects. That is the way the front office is going to operate.
It is fine that fans buy into the Plan of gathering prospects. Many vocal fans have bought it hook, line and sinker. They have bought into the "hope" that these prospects will be great players, foundational talent that will win championships. Hope is an expectation not a guarantee.
But early on, several people questioned the Plan as being too narrow for a big market club like the Cubs. No one except a few bottom small market teams can expect to compete by just using home grown talent. Statistically, only 6 percent of prospects make the majors. What the Cubs are trying to goose is that percentage by doubling down on prospects via trade in order to boost the percentage. Again, that is a strategy that may work.
People give Epstein and Hoyer the benefit of the doubt because they won championships with the Red Sox. But the foundation of that team was built by Dan Duquette, not Theo. And Boston spent huge on free agent talent, something that Ricketts has not authorized during his tenure. And with ownership set to spend $575 million on real estate developments, with no large new revenue streams like broadcast revenue in the near future, it is doubtful that the Cubs will be able to spend like Boston did on championship caliber free agents.
The vast majority of baseball teams have a balanced approach to creating their rosters. They draft amateur talent. They develop quality baseball players. They trade for players to fill needs. They sign impact free agents to fit needs. The Cubs focus on one aspect of a normal approach to team building makes the plan riskier. Prospects are just prospects until they make significant contributions at the major league level.
The smallest market teams put more emphasis on home grown talent due to budget restrictions of operating in a small media market. But those teams get league money to stay "competitive." Even if you buy into the Theo plan of developing a pipeline of young talent that will be the envy of baseball, consider this: the Royals have been basically in rebuild mode since 1985. The first hard phase came to hit in 1994; and the second phase of the rebuild that continues to today began in 2004. As a result, the Royals have yet to get to the post-season. Royals prospects have been in the top player lists for decades, yet the team has not performed as well as their minor league scouting reports.
The mantra this week is that the Cubs have so many talented athletes that they can move the excess infielders to any position and they will succeed. Perhaps, but in the mental game of baseball each player's comfort level is different. Even veterans like Alfonso Soriano took years to adapt to a new position. The pressure on rookies to hit and learn a new position adds to a stressful situation.
The list of under 25 prospects is large: Baez, Alcantara, Soler, Bryant, Almora, Russell, McKinney, Schwarber, Edwards, Candelario, Vogelbach and Johnson. Not all of them will make it to the Cubs major league roster. But proponents of the plan counter by saying that several of these quality prospects can be used to acquire major leaguers like Giancarlo Stanton via trades. Perhaps, but All-Star caliber talent rarely get moved in trades unless they are about to become expensive free agents, at which point it makes more sense to make the best offer to the FA and keep your top prospects.
The other problem with hanging all your chips on prospects is the unknown time table. With each promotion comes greater competition. A Class A phenom can hit his ceiling in Class AA. There are volumes of Class AAA wunderkinds who turn out to be replacement level major leaguers. Everyone is looking for their own Miguel Cabrera to burst on the scene. But that is as rare as finding diamonds in the beach sand.
The proponents of the prospect plan cover their ears when anyone tries to raise a counter-position to the plan. They will not accept any alternatives because they are fully invested in the promise. The promise was a championship. They don't want to even think about the possibility of the prospect plan being a failure because their is no Plan B. There is no goat, black cat or Bartman to blame for that failure.
We all hope that the Cubs get their act together and bring a great team to the majors. The fan base has been waiting for more than a century. But the mere acquisition of prospects does not automatically equate to success. Fans who pay premium prices for major league games have grown tired of the hope and dream story of prospects. At a certain point in the near future, the prospect story needs to play the big theater at Clark and Addison.
From a baseball business perspective, fans should be concerned about the direction of the team. Theo was hired to bring a championship caliber team to Wrigley Field. The Cubs are a major league franchise. The team is asking its fans to pay major league premium prices for Cubs games. The focus of any business should be customer service today not a promise that customer service will "hopefully" be better in the future. If Theo thought he would have more power and control over the club than he did in Boston, then he made a foolish mistake. The business side run by Crane Kenney controls the budgets and revenue. Theo may be handcuffed but it has been reported that the team has increased its scouting department, used more money to sign amateur talent, upgraded facilities and developed foreign academies. The one thing that has not been fully addressed is the major league team, which fields a small market AAA team on a daily basis. The prospect story does not make the Cubs any better on the field in 2015.
The final problem is that the prospect plan has no end game. Epstein refuses to discuss when the new, quality talent will reach the Cubs and make significant contributions. Is it 2016? 2017? 2018? Or even 2020? Some fans and media commentators question why certain prospects seem to be "held back" year after year in the minor league system. Other teams promote their potential stars quickly. Is it the fear of failure? That if the first prospects that hit the majors do not do well, is their a final fan revolt? Does the plan collapse crumble on the weight of expectations? That is the huge gamble on prospects - - - no one truly knows until they reach the majors whether they are any good.
