Despite what Anthony Rizzo will say at the fan convention, the Cubs are not ready to contend. The 2015 team is still the 2014 team with some new window dressing. Jon Lester was a major signing, but he merely takes the place of tough luck Jeff Samardzija at the top of the rotation. Jason Motte takes a veteran presence in the bullpen over an effective youngster in Justin Grimm. The rest of the new Cubs are merely different journeymen replacing other journeymen.
The roster is a puzzle with many broken pieces.
As it stands now, three or four pitchers are on the outside looking in, considering that new manager Joe Maddon is moving to an NL club that needs to manufacture runs to win (and means a longer bench).
The starting rotation is pretty well set by contract restrictions: (* left hander)
1. Lester *
2. Arrieta
3. Hammel
4. Hendricks
5. E. Jackson
Jackson will continue to be a starter because there is no need for a pouty reliever. Jackson may be so damaged with control issues as to be untradeable by spring training. Jackson's presence in the rotation will displace either Wood, Wada, Doubront, Turner and Grimm from starting role. Likewise, the five out of luck starters are vying for only two spots in the bullpen.
Bullpen:
6. Closer: Rondon
7. Set Up: Motte
8. 7th/8th: Strop
9. 6/7th: Ramirez
10. Long relief: Wada *
11. Long relief: T. Wood *
Having both Wada and Wood as long reliever/spot starters may be necessary as the Cubs are still short on proven lefty relievers. Ortiz or Rosscup are not better than Wada or Wood.
Now, the Cubs could try to stock pile starters in Iowa with Wood, Doubront, Turner and Grimm. but that begins to be an expensive AAA rotation.
As for the position players, there are some serious weakness throughout. As many writers have pointed out, the Cubs really only have two set position players: Castro and Rizzo. The rest of the position players have yet to prove themselves as long term viable solutions on a competitive club.
The projected starters are:
12. Montero, C
13. Rizzo, 1B
14. Baez, 2B
15. Castro, SS
16. Valbuena, 3B
17. Coghlan, LF
18. Alcantara, CF
19. Soler, RF
The bench seems to fall like this:
20. Ross, C
21. Castillo, C
22. La Stella, 2B/IN
23. Olt, 3B/1B
24. Denorfia, LF
25. Sweeney, OF
There are two many catchers on this roster. Ross stays as Lester's personal catcher. The trade for Montero does not appear to be an upgrade over Castillo. Unless Castillo can learn first base, he is more valuable than Olt long term, especially when Kris Bryant is promoted in May (Olt would be the cut). Valbuena would become the super-infield sub taking time away from La Stella. The outfield platoon of Coghlan/Denorfia is still weak, and Alcantara is still better suited to play second base than center field and move Castro to LF and Baez to shortstop.
Projected: Alternative:
OF: Coghan/Denorfia, Alcantara, Soler OF: Castro, Coghlan, Soler
3B: Valbuena 3B: Bryant
SS: Castro SS: Baez
2B: Baez 2B: Alcantara
1B: Rizzo 1B: Rizzo
C: Montero C: Castillo
The alternative line-up in my opinion is better defensively than the projected one. And for those who agree that keeping Bryant down on the farm for two weeks to two months to add a contract year of control is contrary to the team's "statement" that the Cubs will contend in 2015. To contend, you have to play your best players, period. Not hold them back to get another arbitration year. Besides Castillo, no one on the Cubs projected bench could start for any NL team, let alone make most of them.
I would expect at least two more key moves to sort out the roster. One has to center around keeping/sending Jackson and Wood. The other is trading Castillo for hopefully, a solid outfield starter.
