The Cubs traded 3B Luis Valbuena and SP Dan Straily to Houston for CF Dexter Fowler.
Fowler, 28, is in his last arb contract year (he is asking $10.5 million compared to an $8.5 million Houston counter). Valbuena hit .249, 15 HR, 51 RBI for the Cubs in 2014. Fowler hit .276 BA, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 11 SB, .375 OBP. The WAR numbers are about the same: Fowler 1.8, Valbuena 1.6.
Fowler is a bad outfielder. He had a negative 1.8 dWAR last season. He had a .983 fielding percentage. His career dWAR is negative 3.2.
The trade makes little sense. Fowler displaces Alcantara in CF (who has shown some power despite his small frame) and displaces Valbuena's power at third (until Bryant is called up). Yes, the Cubs have new potential power sources in Baez, Soler and Bryant to make up that difference (approx. 30 HR deficit).
Since Bryant is not going to be on the opening day roster, the Cubs will weaken their defense by playing someone else at third. Candidates including moving Baez to third (opening the second slot for LaStella and/or Alcantara) or giving the job back to Olt. Rumors have it that Alcantara is going to be the super-sub like Bonifacio was early last year.
Whether new manager Maddon can figure out a consistent line up card is doubtful. It looks like another mash-up of platoon type bench players.
Projected starters:
1. Fowler CF
2. Castro SS
3. Rizzo 1B
4. Soler RF
5. Baez/Olt 3B
6. Coghlan/Denorfia LF
7. Montero C
8. LaStella/Alcantara 2B
