A quality prospect pipeline is the key to long term success. That is what Theo Epstein has been preaching since he arrived in Chicago.
The Cubs’10 best prospects ranked by Baseball America (with my commentary):
1. Gleyber Torres: Still only 19 years old, the Venezuelan shortstop finished last season at advanced Class-A Myrtle Beach. Another reason why Starlin Castro was expendable; Torres will be major league ready in three years just as Addison Russell is reaching his professional stride. It gives the Cubs more infield flexibility or a valuable trade chip in 2020.
2. Willson Contreras: The potential catcher of the future won a Southern League batting title with Double-A Tennessee last year. If the Kyle Schwarber catching experiment fails, Contreras will quickly move up to the major league club. David Ross will retire after this season, so Contreras has the possibility of becoming the starting catcher in 2018.
3. Ian Happ: The Cubs hope the ninth overall pick in
last year’s draft can become a reliable second baseman. If not, they
believe in the switch-hitting profile at the University of Cincinnati.
Jason McLeod – the vice president overseeing scouting and player
development – used a comparison from his time with the Boston Red Sox:
Jed Lowrie with a little more power. Happ is another Theo "pick the best hitter available" draft choice. Instead of going for need (pitching) Happ enters a potential crowded infield unless they ask him to develop multiple skills (which Maddon likes in his players). Happ played all 67 A level games in the OF hitting .259 with 9 HR and 33 RBI. He could fast track if his hitting improves into a 4th OF player.
4. Duane Underwood: Probably the most promising
pitching prospect in a farm system that doesn’t have many projectable
frontline starters, though right elbow inflammation limited him to less
than 80 innings last season. Theo and Jed have a terrible resume on drafting and developing Cub pitchers. To date, no one has made the major league roster. All pitching arms have been acquired in trade. It may be the philosophical question of draft hitting, trade or acquire pitching but the Cubs have used more than 47 percent of their selections on pitchers.Underwood, 21, has been stuck in A ball for the past three years.
5. Dylan Cease: There are only 24 innings on the
right-hander’s professional resume, but the Cubs used money saved from
Schwarber’s below-slot deal to take a chance on a Tommy John case with
100-mph velocity. “The upside is tremendous,” McLeod said. “But where he is right now
is very, very far away. He’s one of the guys we’re really excited to see
coming into 2016.” The White Sox have been extremely successful in drafting and developing power arms, usually the best college pitcher available. This may be the Cubs first real keeper in the Epstein era, but he probably grades out as a back of the bullpen arm.
6. Albert Almora: The first player drafted here by
the Epstein administration (sixth overall in 2012) is projected to begin
this season as Triple-A Iowa’s center fielder. Almora stock as the #1 prospect continues to fade. He is now listed as the #5 prospect but some other team scouts don't see a great impact major league player. A full 2015 season in AA led to a .272 BA and .976 fielding average. He is scheduled to start at CF in Iowa. It will be interesting to see if Heyward struggles in CF whether the Cubs will be forced to move up a CF prospect.
7. Billy McKinney: The Oakland A’s packaged their
2013 first-round pick with Russell in the Jeff Samardzija/Jason Hammel
trade and the outfielder has put up a .798 OPS during his minor-league
career. McKinney has moved past Almora to the #2 prospect. He also played in AA last year, batting .285 with .986 fielding percentage. At some point either McKinney or Almora will be the odd man out on the roster.
8. Oscar De La Cruz: With mid-90s velocity and a
6-foot-4, 200-pound frame, the Cubs hope this right-hander can develop
into a middle-of-the-rotation starter. But he is still years away,
approaching his 21st birthday and with no experience above the A-ball
level. In three years of rookie and A ball, he has 28 starts, going 15-4 with 2.60 ERA and 1.063 WHIP. Those are quality numbers but will he be promoted quickly through the system? He may be another three plus years away from a major league try out.
9. Eloy Jimenez: Coming out of the same
international class as Torres, the Cubs gave the outfielder a $2.8
million signing bonus in the summer of 2013. In 2 seasons at rookie and A ball, 99 games total, he has hit 10 HR, 60 RBI, .262 BA. He projects as a corner outfielder but since the signing there has been little buzz about his game.
10. Jeimer Candelario: The Arizona Fall League Fall Star appears to be blocked as long as Bryant is playing third base on the North Side. He has been around since 2011 in the system. Last year in A-AA, he hit 10 HR, 64 RBI,.277 BA and .951 fielding percentage at 3B. He will probably stay at AA to start 2016 and may wind up as part of a trade for starting pitcher down the line.
The Cubs landed six players on MLB.com’s rankings of the 100 best
prospects in the game: Torres (No. 28); Contreras (No. 50); Happ (No.
76); Underwood (No. 77); Almora (No. 86); and McKinney (No. 88).
Baseball Prospectus included six Cubs prospects on its Top 101 for
2016: Torres (No. 41); Contreras (No. 57); Happ (No. 67); McKinney (No.
74); Almora (No. 83); and Eddy Julio Martinez (No. 97).
Of the top 10 Cubs prospects, Contreras seems to be the sole lock to be an important Cub piece in the near future.
