DUBIOUS ACCOMPLISHMENT

 The Cubs ended 2021 with many records. Bad records. 

The Cubs used a record 69 different players. Forty-four (44) players made their ML debut with the Cubs, ten more than the previous team record set in 2013. The Cubs also used a record 9 catchers in one season.

A host of scrambled letters went through the club house turn style: Tyler Payne, Joe Biagini, Erik Castillo, Trent Giambrone and Tyler Ladendorf made their footnotes in Cub history. None made a lasting impact or really part of any future plans.

It was an all-out fire drill sending rookie fire fighters after the forest had been burnt to the ground. 

Of the Cubs Top 30 prospects, OF Brennan Davis and LHP Brailyn Marquez will be rushed into 2022 duty. If Willson Contreras is traded then C Miquel Amaya will take his place with a long learning curve ahead of him. The rest of the Top 10 have call up years in 2023 and beyond.

The Cubs will have the 7th pick in the next Draft. If the pattern holds, Hoyer will pick the best college bat available in hopes of moving the selection through the minors quickly. But the Cubs drafting record is more dubious than their team's collapse and fire sale.

Expect 2020 to be the journeymen tour of major and minor league career AAAA players getting a cup of coffee on the Cubs roster. Expect another 90 plus loss season.

FREE AGENCY OR NOT

Jed Hoyer is about to start his first in-charge free agency as the baseball CEO of the Cubs. His first interviews will be for a new general manager. The Cubs have been operating without won since Hoyer was promoted when Theo Epstein left the club. It is not like having a GM would have made the Cubs 2021 fortunes any better. The orders were to sell and sell often. From the preseason Darvish salary dump to the late July fire sale, the Cubs were never going to be competitive or relevant. 

Hoyer spoke recently to the media. He said the Cubs would be "really active" in free agency.

But that does not mean GOOD free agents will be coming to Chicago.

On the contrary, top free agents will see the Cubs as a play pen for 30 year old minor league journeymen. The minors have been void of creating quality players, especially starting pitchers. It seems the 2021 tank is the only plan the organization has put money back in the Ricketts bank accounts.

The Cubs are set to rocket down from $215 million payroll to small market $60 million in a matter of years. There is no rational belief that the owners are willing to spend anything on the Cubs after suffering alleged "biblical" losses during the pandemic. Those losses were surely bolstered by mismanagement, taking a cue from the strange season of broadcaster carousel in the Marquee booth. Is everyone now a 1099 freelance sportscaster?

The Cubs were so bad so often that it was hard to even root for them to fail because there is no hope for the future. Hoyer was head of scouting and the minor leagues which were floundering until he was promoted to GM instead of being fired. His resume contains 180 drafted pitchers with no quality starter being developed during his tenure. This year's parade of starting pitchers seemed like an improv audition for the fifth starter/long relievers: Steele, Thompson, Alzolay, Mills, and Sampson. With Hendricks performance slipping to a #3 or #4 starter, things do not look good for 2022.

Pundits may call for one or two free agent starters, but in reality you need four. And the Cubs are not going to pay for four aces, or four #2s. Top free agent starters like Robbie Ray (30), Max Scherzer (37), Noah Syndergaard (29), Marcus Stroman (30) or even often injured Carlos Rodon (29) are not coming to the North Side.

And neither are quality free agent position players. The nostalgia signing of Jake Arrieta was a bust. Bringing back Baez, Rizzo or Bryant seems like rubbing salt into the wounds of the lack of a promised dynasty of championships. The top stars are the free agent shortstops (with Baez probably ranking #6 in that list). Nico Hoerner is your 2022 shortstop with Nick Madrigal as the pivot man second baseman. Frank Schwindel has the same WAR as Rizzo so he is the probable first sacker. Third base is an open competition between Patrick Wisdom and David Bote. Willson Contreras is the starting catcher. The outfield is really the open sports, but Jason Heyward's contract makes him the default right fielder. Happ, Martini, Thompson or Ortega really are bench players masquerading as starting outfielders.

Basically, the 90 plus loss 2021 Cubs are going to be your 95 plus loss 2022 Cubs.

CUBS FARM SYSTEM

A quality prospect pipeline is the key to long term success. That is what Theo Epstein has been preaching since he arrived in Chicago.

The Cubs’10 best prospects ranked by Baseball America (with my commentary):

1. Gleyber Torres: Still only 19 years old, the Venezuelan shortstop finished last season at advanced Class-A Myrtle Beach. Another reason why Starlin Castro was expendable; Torres will be major league ready in three years just as Addison Russell is reaching his professional stride. It gives the Cubs more infield flexibility or a valuable trade chip in 2020.

2. Willson Contreras: The potential catcher of the future won a Southern League batting title with Double-A Tennessee last year. If the Kyle Schwarber catching experiment fails, Contreras will quickly move up to the major league club. David Ross will retire after this season, so Contreras has the possibility of becoming the starting catcher in 2018.

3. Ian Happ: The Cubs hope the ninth overall pick in last year’s draft can become a reliable second baseman. If not, they believe in the switch-hitting profile at the University of Cincinnati. Jason McLeod – the vice president overseeing scouting and player development – used a comparison from his time with the Boston Red Sox: Jed Lowrie with a little more power. Happ is another Theo "pick the best hitter available" draft choice. Instead of going for need (pitching) Happ enters a potential crowded infield unless they ask him to develop multiple skills (which Maddon likes in his players). Happ played all 67 A level games in the OF hitting .259 with 9 HR and 33 RBI. He could fast track if his hitting improves into a 4th OF player.

4. Duane Underwood: Probably the most promising pitching prospect in a farm system that doesn’t have many projectable frontline starters, though right elbow inflammation limited him to less than 80 innings last season. Theo and Jed have a terrible resume on drafting and developing Cub pitchers. To date, no one has made the major league roster. All pitching arms have been acquired in trade. It may be the philosophical question of draft hitting, trade or acquire pitching but the Cubs have used more than 47 percent of their selections on pitchers.Underwood, 21, has been stuck in A ball for the past three years.

5. Dylan Cease: There are only 24 innings on the right-hander’s professional resume, but the Cubs used money saved from Schwarber’s below-slot deal to take a chance on a Tommy John case with 100-mph velocity. “The upside is tremendous,” McLeod said. “But where he is right now is very, very far away. He’s one of the guys we’re really excited to see coming into 2016.” The White Sox have been extremely successful in drafting and developing power arms, usually the best college pitcher available. This may be the Cubs first real keeper in the Epstein era, but he probably grades out as a back of the bullpen arm.

6. Albert Almora: The first player drafted here by the Epstein administration (sixth overall in 2012) is projected to begin this season as Triple-A Iowa’s center fielder. Almora stock as the #1 prospect continues to fade. He is now listed as the #5 prospect but some other team scouts don't see a great impact major league player. A full 2015 season in AA led to a .272 BA and .976 fielding average. He is scheduled to start at CF in Iowa. It will be interesting to see if Heyward struggles in CF whether the Cubs will be forced to move up a CF prospect.

7. Billy McKinney: The Oakland A’s packaged their 2013 first-round pick with Russell in the Jeff Samardzija/Jason Hammel trade and the outfielder has put up a .798 OPS during his minor-league career. McKinney has moved past Almora to the #2 prospect. He also played in AA last year, batting .285 with .986 fielding percentage. At some point either McKinney or Almora will be the odd man out on the roster.

8. Oscar De La Cruz: With mid-90s velocity and a 6-foot-4, 200-pound frame, the Cubs hope this right-hander can develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter. But he is still years away, approaching his 21st birthday and with no experience above the A-ball level. In three years of rookie and A ball, he has 28 starts, going 15-4 with 2.60 ERA and 1.063 WHIP. Those are quality numbers but will he be promoted quickly through the system? He may be another three plus years away from a major league try out.

9. Eloy Jimenez: Coming out of the same international class as Torres, the Cubs gave the outfielder a $2.8 million signing bonus in the summer of 2013. In 2 seasons at rookie and A ball, 99 games total, he has hit 10 HR, 60 RBI, .262 BA. He projects as a corner outfielder but since the signing there has been little buzz about his game.

10. Jeimer Candelario: The Arizona Fall League Fall Star appears to be blocked as long as Bryant is playing third base on the North Side. He has been around since 2011 in the system. Last year in A-AA, he hit 10 HR, 64 RBI,.277 BA and .951 fielding percentage at 3B. He will probably stay at AA to start 2016 and may wind up as part of a trade for starting pitcher down the line.

The Cubs landed six players on MLB.com’s rankings of the 100 best prospects in the game: Torres (No. 28); Contreras (No. 50); Happ (No. 76); Underwood (No. 77); Almora (No. 86); and McKinney (No. 88).

Baseball Prospectus included six Cubs prospects on its Top 101 for 2016: Torres (No. 41); Contreras (No. 57); Happ (No. 67); McKinney (No. 74); Almora (No. 83); and Eddy Julio Martinez (No. 97).

Of the top 10 Cubs prospects, Contreras seems to be the sole lock to be an important Cub piece in the near future.