SNY reviews the Starlin Castro trade:
How Castro fared in 2016:
There were positives, yet some results left something to be desired
concerning Castro's performance last season. It is difficult to get
upset with 51 extra-base hits from a second baseman, but Castro has room
for offensive improvement after hitting .270 with a .300 on-base
percentage and a .433 slugging percentage (.734 OPS, 93 OPS+ and 94
wRC+). In his first full season as a second baseman, Castro wasn't awful
at the position, but the club hopes he can improve in the department in
which advanced metrics cast an ill light (-8 defensive runs saved).
Castro's OPS was significantly higher than the collections of
players from 2014 (.693) and 2015 (.683), so in that respect, the
Yankees received improved production from the position without spending
an exorbitant salary (just under $8 million in 2016 and $10 million in
2017). Better, the Yankees ended up receiving Adam Warren, whom they traded for Castro, back in the Aroldis Chapman deal last summer, so the move was more or less like signing a young free agent.
What to expect in 2017
With seven years of major-league experience under his belt, if
Castro is going to turn into an elite player, the time should be now.
Unfortunately, Castro's inability to be more selective at the plate will
likely deter him from turning in the monster season that he could with a
different approach at the plate.
Castro has averaged just 3.67 pitches per plate appearance in his
career (league average during the time frame was 3.83) and his career
contact rate at pitches outside the zone is 66.9 percent
(league averages have sat between 62-64 percent during his career). I'm
not suggesting that Castro try to work more walks -- that's completely
out of his comfort zone (his career-best walk rate is 6.2 percent in
2014; the league average was 7.6 percent). However, he might benefit
from swinging at better pitches in an effort to increase the potential
balls he contacts result in base hits. Castro could further work to
reduce strikeouts, in which he set a career-high rate (19.3 percent) in
2016.
In his early seasons with the Cubs, Castro benefited from an
inflated batting average with balls in play (BABIP) which elevated his
on-base percentage. As his BABIP dropped in subsequent seasons, so has
his on-base percentage. Castro getting on base just 30 percent of the
time is a hindrance to the lineup and something he has the capability
to remedy.
It is safe to assume that Castro can minimally attain 50-plus
extra-base hits again in 2017. The upside with Castro is 60 extra base
hits -- think 35 doubles and 25 home runs. The frustrating part with
Castro is that he continually leaves people wanting more. The talent
certainly exists, but whether Castro has the necessary drive to push
himself enough to elevate his game is questionable.
In the field, any improvement would again come from Castro putting
in extra effort. Castro has the benefit of having a full season playing
second base under his belt, so the growing pains should be diminished.
While Castro has the ability to turn in the fantastic play, the mind
lapses and being a poor position for routine grounders drag his
performance and metrics down.
Bottom line
Castro is a fine player. The Yankees are not breaking the bank to
employ him and at the moment he is not blocking any minor leaguers.
However, while Castro flashes spurts of brilliance at the plate and in
the field, the knock is taking his talent and matching it with
full-blown effort through an entire season. Until Castro improves his
approach at the plate and his all-around focus, he will be viewed a nice
piece, not the elite star he has the potential to reach.
MY TAKE:
The Yankees clearly won the trade by obtaining Castro and getting Warren back (because Chapman was leaving for free agency at the end of season and the Yanks had no chance of winning the AL East).
Castro had a 2.1 oWAR and a 1.2 overall WAR in 2016. Warren contributed a negative 0.9 WAR when he was with the Cubs.
Granted, Ben Zobrist had a better year. He had a 4.2 oWAR and 3.8 overall WAR in 2016.
With the emergence of Javy Baez, we don't know how much playing time Zobrist will have in 2017. But it is clear that Castro did not have a starting job in Chicago so he had to be traded to give Joe Maddon the championship roster pieces.
