Baseball free agency is getting very interesting.
Free agency was meant to give players freedom to find
a new club, balance family lifestyle with professional duties
and to make more money.
But for the two superstars, this FA season is turning sour.
They interviewed with very few teams.
Current reports state that Phillies, Yankees and White Sox
interviewed with Machado, while the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies
and Cardinals spoke to Harper after he rejected the Nats offer.
Both players don't want to play for the Phils (who seem to
be offering the most money). Both players prefer to play
for the Yankees, but the Yanks have no interest in Harper.
It just leaves Machado with the Yankees, who have signaled
they are not going to spend heavily this off season on players
and the White Sox, who have never spent heavily on free agency.
It just leaves Harper with the Phils as both the Dodgers and
Cubs claim not to have payroll room to sign him, and the Cardinals
don't seem to be the black knight willing to cough up $400 million
on one player.
One speculates that Harper may have to throttle back his 10 year
megacontract demand and take a 5 year deal with an opt out after
3 season (so he can get to FA again before 30). That kind of deal
could open up one or two more teams to bottom feed if the number
is not $40 million/year but more like $25 to $30 million/year.
In other words, Harper may have to settle for a J.D. Martinez
type of deal just before spring training begins.
And considering the current roller coaster stock market where
rich men's savings are are getting whipsawed with losses, team
owners are extra wary of signing a huge contract with problematic players.
This appears not to be collusion but basic economics. Teams are not growing
local revenue streams. A big market team signing a Machado or Harper will not
add any significant numbers to attendance revenue. Cord cutting has hurt
cable operators who see the sports license fees as a major reason households
do not want to pay increasing monthly cable bills.
Organizations are now more focused on the draft, international free agents
and the trade market to structure their minor and major league systems. Draft
choices are more important than major free agent signings. Major free agency
signings cripple payroll flexibility, can hit the team with luxury taxes and
potentially block rising homegrown stars in their minor league system.
Machado and Harper played so well during their career to earn a Tier 1 free agent
status. But by playing so well, they trapped themselves into a very limited market.
Teams and smart players who sign early in free agency, tend to do better at managing
the organizational budgetary pressures. Teams would rather fix their bullpens with
one or two relievers than sign a big money free agent hitter (with subpar defensive
stats).
Also, teams have wised up and do not bid against themselves. At the winter meetings,
teams interested in free agents gave agents their best offer (like the Nationals did to Harper
at the end of the season.) It is no longer an auction where the agent controls the flow
of bids or pits teams against each other. Teams with strict ownership budget guidelines
do not have the time or resources to go with the flow in an active auction setting.
Machado and Harper have probably gotten the "best" offers from the various suitors.
And those offers may have been less than their own perceived market value.
So the agents are playing the sports media card, telling Philadelphia their client(s) don't
want to play there (in hopes the Phils will increase their offer) or to have secondary clubs
make a second raise in their final bid to snare a superstar.
It is a cat and mouse, risk reward type of game that many teams have an advantage. But there
are always some teams that pay stupid money on players who underperform, get hurt or
handcuff the organizational budgets for years. All the big market teams have their golden anchor contracts choking their books. It is harder for player agents to navigate around those ships
trapped in their own dead money harbors.
Showing posts with label Yankees. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Yankees. Show all posts
December 27, 2018
February 16, 2018
CC THIS TO AGENTS AND PLAYERS
The New York Daily News published an article from Yankees spring training which puts into focus the current frozen free agent market from the viewpoint of a veteran player near the end of his career.
CC Sabathia told the Daily News he knows exactly how he'd feel if he was in Jake Arrieta's position as being an unsigned free agent after spring training has started for teams.
"I'd be panicking," Sabathia said. "I don't know him at all, but just to see guys in spring training getting ready and things like that and you have a family and you're trying to figure stuff out factors into how you pitch and play."
Sabathia said the off-season moved slow for him to get a deal. "Everything was kind of moving slow for me, too," said Sabathia, who signed a one-year, $10 million deal to remain with the Yankees. "I just thought that was kind of the pace of the off-season, but I've never seen what we've been going through this year. It's crazy. I was just happy I was able to get (my deal) done."
The paper cites many factors have been cited as possible reasons for the offseason hot-stove freeze, which has caused a rift between the league and the players' union, but Sabathia gave an interesting perspective on the issue.
"It's a combination of all of them," Sabathia said. "When I was a free agent you got paid off of what you did. Now guys are going to get paid for what they can do throughout that contract. It's just a different landscape in baseball, the way teams are changing. GMs are getting younger and smarter and they want to get more value out of their players."
Asked about the possibility of a strike, Sabathia replied: "I don't know about that. Maybe we shorten the years that you go to free agency. Make it four years instead of six, so guys that have a chance to be in their 20s going into free agency instead of 30."
Sabathia is a veteran pitcher who was once a premier starter, fell to hard times, and mounted a comeback to continue to play in the majors. But he sees the writing on the wall that many agents and players apparently do not see. The structure of team management has changed from the old school baseball scouting system to a hybrid of new, young, tech smart and stat driven analysis. And clubs have decided that going younger (and cheaper) does not hurt their product or prospects for a post-season. You don't need a veteran all-star stocked roster in order to get to the playoffs. So the economics of the game is rapidly changing; the players union got caught in the winds of change with no avenue of recourse until the next collective bargaining meeting.
CC Sabathia told the Daily News he knows exactly how he'd feel if he was in Jake Arrieta's position as being an unsigned free agent after spring training has started for teams.
"I'd be panicking," Sabathia said. "I don't know him at all, but just to see guys in spring training getting ready and things like that and you have a family and you're trying to figure stuff out factors into how you pitch and play."
Sabathia said the off-season moved slow for him to get a deal. "Everything was kind of moving slow for me, too," said Sabathia, who signed a one-year, $10 million deal to remain with the Yankees. "I just thought that was kind of the pace of the off-season, but I've never seen what we've been going through this year. It's crazy. I was just happy I was able to get (my deal) done."
The paper cites many factors have been cited as possible reasons for the offseason hot-stove freeze, which has caused a rift between the league and the players' union, but Sabathia gave an interesting perspective on the issue.
"It's a combination of all of them," Sabathia said. "When I was a free agent you got paid off of what you did. Now guys are going to get paid for what they can do throughout that contract. It's just a different landscape in baseball, the way teams are changing. GMs are getting younger and smarter and they want to get more value out of their players."
Asked about the possibility of a strike, Sabathia replied: "I don't know about that. Maybe we shorten the years that you go to free agency. Make it four years instead of six, so guys that have a chance to be in their 20s going into free agency instead of 30."
Sabathia is a veteran pitcher who was once a premier starter, fell to hard times, and mounted a comeback to continue to play in the majors. But he sees the writing on the wall that many agents and players apparently do not see. The structure of team management has changed from the old school baseball scouting system to a hybrid of new, young, tech smart and stat driven analysis. And clubs have decided that going younger (and cheaper) does not hurt their product or prospects for a post-season. You don't need a veteran all-star stocked roster in order to get to the playoffs. So the economics of the game is rapidly changing; the players union got caught in the winds of change with no avenue of recourse until the next collective bargaining meeting.
December 11, 2017
THEY DID IT!
Well, a Giancarlo Stanton deal got done. And the Cubs were no where in the neighborhood.
The Yankees made a fantastic deal to acquire the power hitting MVP.
Yahoo Sports summarizes the deal: The Marlins will receive veteran second baseman Starlin Castro, Yankees No. 9 minor league prospect, right-hander Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers in exchange for Stanton and approximately $30 million. The New York Post reports the $30 million will only be paid out in full if Stanton elects not to opt out after the 2020 season. The Yankees will absorb the remaining $265 million left on his contract.
With the price break the Yankees are getting in the deal, it is likely the Yankees will be able to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold in 2018. After offloading Castro’s $7.57 million salary and taking into account the $25 million Stanton is due next season, the club is looking at a payroll increase of just under $17.5 million. The $30 million the Yankees receive from Miami will be paid out in $3 million installments to help offset the luxury tax restrictions each year.
Pitcher Guzman is expected to break into the big leagues as soon as 2019. The 21-year-old pitched exclusively out of the rotation for Low-A Staten Island last season with a 5-3 record in 13 starts and a 2.30 ERA, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.9 SO/9 through 66 2/3 innings.
Devers, 18, was also included in the deal. The shortstop/DH made his first foray into pro ball in 2017, slashing a combined .245/.336/.342 with 13 extra-base hits and 16 stolen bases in 216 PA for the Yankees’ rookie-level affiliates in the Gulf Coast League and Dominican Summer League.
The Marlins were desperate to unload Stanton's contract and the Yankees got a bargain fire-sale price for the one of the best hitters in baseball.
As I said previously, it would not have taken much to get Stanton on the Cubs roster. And Stanton would have solved a major problem in the Cubs everyday lineup: consistent hitting for average and power.
The Marlins only received a starting second baseman, the Yankees fifth best pitching prospect, and a low level minor leaguer. Miami also lost a great deal of production: Castro hit .300, 16 HR, 63 RBI with a 2.0 WAR as compared to Stanton's .281 BA, 59 HR, 132 RBI and 7.6 WAR.
Look at this way: would you trade Javy Baez, No. 4 prospect SP Alex Lange and a low Class A minor leaguer for Stanton?
Of course you would. That is the basic cost the Marlins were looking to take to get rid of Stanton. So I am surprised that the Cubs were not a factor in the Stanton trade discussions. Yankees GM Cashman made the deal of the year.
The Yankees made a fantastic deal to acquire the power hitting MVP.
Yahoo Sports summarizes the deal: The Marlins will receive veteran second baseman Starlin Castro, Yankees No. 9 minor league prospect, right-hander Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers in exchange for Stanton and approximately $30 million. The New York Post reports the $30 million will only be paid out in full if Stanton elects not to opt out after the 2020 season. The Yankees will absorb the remaining $265 million left on his contract.
With the price break the Yankees are getting in the deal, it is likely the Yankees will be able to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold in 2018. After offloading Castro’s $7.57 million salary and taking into account the $25 million Stanton is due next season, the club is looking at a payroll increase of just under $17.5 million. The $30 million the Yankees receive from Miami will be paid out in $3 million installments to help offset the luxury tax restrictions each year.
Pitcher Guzman is expected to break into the big leagues as soon as 2019. The 21-year-old pitched exclusively out of the rotation for Low-A Staten Island last season with a 5-3 record in 13 starts and a 2.30 ERA, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.9 SO/9 through 66 2/3 innings.
Devers, 18, was also included in the deal. The shortstop/DH made his first foray into pro ball in 2017, slashing a combined .245/.336/.342 with 13 extra-base hits and 16 stolen bases in 216 PA for the Yankees’ rookie-level affiliates in the Gulf Coast League and Dominican Summer League.
The Marlins were desperate to unload Stanton's contract and the Yankees got a bargain fire-sale price for the one of the best hitters in baseball.
As I said previously, it would not have taken much to get Stanton on the Cubs roster. And Stanton would have solved a major problem in the Cubs everyday lineup: consistent hitting for average and power.
The Marlins only received a starting second baseman, the Yankees fifth best pitching prospect, and a low level minor leaguer. Miami also lost a great deal of production: Castro hit .300, 16 HR, 63 RBI with a 2.0 WAR as compared to Stanton's .281 BA, 59 HR, 132 RBI and 7.6 WAR.
Look at this way: would you trade Javy Baez, No. 4 prospect SP Alex Lange and a low Class A minor leaguer for Stanton?
Of course you would. That is the basic cost the Marlins were looking to take to get rid of Stanton. So I am surprised that the Cubs were not a factor in the Stanton trade discussions. Yankees GM Cashman made the deal of the year.
December 8, 2017
JUST DO IT!
The news broke early this morning that should have the Cubs front office changing everything they planned for this off-season.
Yahoo Sports quotes a Miami-based host for SiriusXM who has been all over the Giancarlo Stanton story, reported that the reigning NL MVP will not approve a trade to either the Giants or the Cardinals. Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins so he has all the leverage on where he will go. He is under contract control through the 2020 season.
Furthermore, the report says Stanton "would" accept a trade to four teams and they’re the four teams that were in the ALCS and NLCS: the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Astros.
Clearly, Stanton wants to win NOW.
What the Cubs need to do is make a strong pitch for Stanton NOW.
Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton I made on August 16, 2017:
1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.
And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal, now probably more than that figure), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.
For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.
In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.
The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:
1. Baez or Russell. A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).
2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF). Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.
3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.
4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.
5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.
If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.
The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.
As a footnote to the argument, the Cubs would have to either extend the opt out clause with Stanton or pay less in major league talent for a potential 2-year contract (maybe three players and a prospect). The Cubs spent $13 million/season on Chatwood to be the 4th starter. So the team is still under budget (but with several key roles to fill including the closer position).
But this is a one-in-a-generation type move. The three years Stanton has to his opt out is the prime years for the current Cubs core. It also fits into the time frame for the Cubs to attempt to launch their own Cubs channel. Stanton is a superstar who solves a major problem in the current lineup: a consistent hitter that other teams fear.
Yahoo Sports quotes a Miami-based host for SiriusXM who has been all over the Giancarlo Stanton story, reported that the reigning NL MVP will not approve a trade to either the Giants or the Cardinals. Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins so he has all the leverage on where he will go. He is under contract control through the 2020 season.
Furthermore, the report says Stanton "would" accept a trade to four teams and they’re the four teams that were in the ALCS and NLCS: the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Astros.
Clearly, Stanton wants to win NOW.
What the Cubs need to do is make a strong pitch for Stanton NOW.
Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton I made on August 16, 2017:
1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.
And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal, now probably more than that figure), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.
For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.
In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.
The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:
1. Baez or Russell. A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).
2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF). Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.
3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.
4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.
5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.
If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.
The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.
As a footnote to the argument, the Cubs would have to either extend the opt out clause with Stanton or pay less in major league talent for a potential 2-year contract (maybe three players and a prospect). The Cubs spent $13 million/season on Chatwood to be the 4th starter. So the team is still under budget (but with several key roles to fill including the closer position).
But this is a one-in-a-generation type move. The three years Stanton has to his opt out is the prime years for the current Cubs core. It also fits into the time frame for the Cubs to attempt to launch their own Cubs channel. Stanton is a superstar who solves a major problem in the current lineup: a consistent hitter that other teams fear.
May 8, 2017
108 & OUT
It took 6 hours and 5 minutes to shatter many records. The 18 inning Sunday night contest between the Yankees and Cubs was the longest interleague game in history. It also crushed the number of strikeouts in a game with 48. Of the 108 outs, 44.4 percent were by strike out. Yankees set a franchise record by striking out 26 batters in a game, while also recording a history 22 strikeouts on their own.
The Cubs used 22 players, including 8 pitchers. Only 8 batters got a hit during the marathon game.
The Cubs mounted a 9th inning comeback, erasing a 3 run deficit off Yankees star closer, Chapman.
But during the game, Baez hit a stinger foul off the top of his foot. Hobbled, he stayed in the game and played second. Rizzo was hit on the forearm with a fastball. He also stayed in the game in some pain, but an x-ray later showed no broken bones.
The Cubs had 108 outs but could only score 4 runs in 18 innings. The Cubs left 18 runners on base (10 courtesy of Yankee walks). 108 was a magical number in 2016. But in 2017, it merely reflects the doldrums of the post championship hangover the Cubs are experiencing this season.
The Cubs got swept by their mirror cousins. The Yankees, the old money team that used to try to buy championships with expensive free agents, now boasts a young core as talented as the 2016 Cubs. Rookie outfielder Judge leads the majors with 13 HRs. Outfielder Hicks provides speed on the bases. Gregorius and Castro are a young double play combination. The Yanks boast two quality catchers in Sanchez and Romine, who can also play first.
The Yankees are 20-5 while the Cubs are slumping at 16-15. If this was a statement series or a test of how good your team is, then the Yankees won by a wide margin. The Yankees have quietly emerged as the best team in the AL East because the ongoing bean ball war distraction between the Red Sox and Orioles.
The Cubs used 22 players, including 8 pitchers. Only 8 batters got a hit during the marathon game.
The Cubs mounted a 9th inning comeback, erasing a 3 run deficit off Yankees star closer, Chapman.
But during the game, Baez hit a stinger foul off the top of his foot. Hobbled, he stayed in the game and played second. Rizzo was hit on the forearm with a fastball. He also stayed in the game in some pain, but an x-ray later showed no broken bones.
The Cubs had 108 outs but could only score 4 runs in 18 innings. The Cubs left 18 runners on base (10 courtesy of Yankee walks). 108 was a magical number in 2016. But in 2017, it merely reflects the doldrums of the post championship hangover the Cubs are experiencing this season.
The Cubs got swept by their mirror cousins. The Yankees, the old money team that used to try to buy championships with expensive free agents, now boasts a young core as talented as the 2016 Cubs. Rookie outfielder Judge leads the majors with 13 HRs. Outfielder Hicks provides speed on the bases. Gregorius and Castro are a young double play combination. The Yanks boast two quality catchers in Sanchez and Romine, who can also play first.
The Yankees are 20-5 while the Cubs are slumping at 16-15. If this was a statement series or a test of how good your team is, then the Yankees won by a wide margin. The Yankees have quietly emerged as the best team in the AL East because the ongoing bean ball war distraction between the Red Sox and Orioles.
January 15, 2017
CASTRO
SNY reviews the Starlin Castro trade:
How Castro fared in 2016:
There were positives, yet some results left something to be desired concerning Castro's performance last season. It is difficult to get upset with 51 extra-base hits from a second baseman, but Castro has room for offensive improvement after hitting .270 with a .300 on-base percentage and a .433 slugging percentage (.734 OPS, 93 OPS+ and 94 wRC+). In his first full season as a second baseman, Castro wasn't awful at the position, but the club hopes he can improve in the department in which advanced metrics cast an ill light (-8 defensive runs saved).
Castro's OPS was significantly higher than the collections of players from 2014 (.693) and 2015 (.683), so in that respect, the Yankees received improved production from the position without spending an exorbitant salary (just under $8 million in 2016 and $10 million in 2017). Better, the Yankees ended up receiving Adam Warren, whom they traded for Castro, back in the Aroldis Chapman deal last summer, so the move was more or less like signing a young free agent.
What to expect in 2017
With seven years of major-league experience under his belt, if Castro is going to turn into an elite player, the time should be now. Unfortunately, Castro's inability to be more selective at the plate will likely deter him from turning in the monster season that he could with a different approach at the plate.
Castro has averaged just 3.67 pitches per plate appearance in his career (league average during the time frame was 3.83) and his career contact rate at pitches outside the zone is 66.9 percent (league averages have sat between 62-64 percent during his career). I'm not suggesting that Castro try to work more walks -- that's completely out of his comfort zone (his career-best walk rate is 6.2 percent in 2014; the league average was 7.6 percent). However, he might benefit from swinging at better pitches in an effort to increase the potential balls he contacts result in base hits. Castro could further work to reduce strikeouts, in which he set a career-high rate (19.3 percent) in 2016.
In his early seasons with the Cubs, Castro benefited from an inflated batting average with balls in play (BABIP) which elevated his on-base percentage. As his BABIP dropped in subsequent seasons, so has his on-base percentage. Castro getting on base just 30 percent of the time is a hindrance to the lineup and something he has the capability to remedy.
It is safe to assume that Castro can minimally attain 50-plus extra-base hits again in 2017. The upside with Castro is 60 extra base hits -- think 35 doubles and 25 home runs. The frustrating part with Castro is that he continually leaves people wanting more. The talent certainly exists, but whether Castro has the necessary drive to push himself enough to elevate his game is questionable.
In the field, any improvement would again come from Castro putting in extra effort. Castro has the benefit of having a full season playing second base under his belt, so the growing pains should be diminished. While Castro has the ability to turn in the fantastic play, the mind lapses and being a poor position for routine grounders drag his performance and metrics down.
Bottom line
Castro is a fine player. The Yankees are not breaking the bank to employ him and at the moment he is not blocking any minor leaguers. However, while Castro flashes spurts of brilliance at the plate and in the field, the knock is taking his talent and matching it with full-blown effort through an entire season. Until Castro improves his approach at the plate and his all-around focus, he will be viewed a nice piece, not the elite star he has the potential to reach.
MY TAKE:
The Yankees clearly won the trade by obtaining Castro and getting Warren back (because Chapman was leaving for free agency at the end of season and the Yanks had no chance of winning the AL East).
Castro had a 2.1 oWAR and a 1.2 overall WAR in 2016. Warren contributed a negative 0.9 WAR when he was with the Cubs.
Granted, Ben Zobrist had a better year. He had a 4.2 oWAR and 3.8 overall WAR in 2016.
With the emergence of Javy Baez, we don't know how much playing time Zobrist will have in 2017. But it is clear that Castro did not have a starting job in Chicago so he had to be traded to give Joe Maddon the championship roster pieces.
How Castro fared in 2016:
There were positives, yet some results left something to be desired concerning Castro's performance last season. It is difficult to get upset with 51 extra-base hits from a second baseman, but Castro has room for offensive improvement after hitting .270 with a .300 on-base percentage and a .433 slugging percentage (.734 OPS, 93 OPS+ and 94 wRC+). In his first full season as a second baseman, Castro wasn't awful at the position, but the club hopes he can improve in the department in which advanced metrics cast an ill light (-8 defensive runs saved).
Castro's OPS was significantly higher than the collections of players from 2014 (.693) and 2015 (.683), so in that respect, the Yankees received improved production from the position without spending an exorbitant salary (just under $8 million in 2016 and $10 million in 2017). Better, the Yankees ended up receiving Adam Warren, whom they traded for Castro, back in the Aroldis Chapman deal last summer, so the move was more or less like signing a young free agent.
What to expect in 2017
With seven years of major-league experience under his belt, if Castro is going to turn into an elite player, the time should be now. Unfortunately, Castro's inability to be more selective at the plate will likely deter him from turning in the monster season that he could with a different approach at the plate.
Castro has averaged just 3.67 pitches per plate appearance in his career (league average during the time frame was 3.83) and his career contact rate at pitches outside the zone is 66.9 percent (league averages have sat between 62-64 percent during his career). I'm not suggesting that Castro try to work more walks -- that's completely out of his comfort zone (his career-best walk rate is 6.2 percent in 2014; the league average was 7.6 percent). However, he might benefit from swinging at better pitches in an effort to increase the potential balls he contacts result in base hits. Castro could further work to reduce strikeouts, in which he set a career-high rate (19.3 percent) in 2016.
In his early seasons with the Cubs, Castro benefited from an inflated batting average with balls in play (BABIP) which elevated his on-base percentage. As his BABIP dropped in subsequent seasons, so has his on-base percentage. Castro getting on base just 30 percent of the time is a hindrance to the lineup and something he has the capability to remedy.
It is safe to assume that Castro can minimally attain 50-plus extra-base hits again in 2017. The upside with Castro is 60 extra base hits -- think 35 doubles and 25 home runs. The frustrating part with Castro is that he continually leaves people wanting more. The talent certainly exists, but whether Castro has the necessary drive to push himself enough to elevate his game is questionable.
In the field, any improvement would again come from Castro putting in extra effort. Castro has the benefit of having a full season playing second base under his belt, so the growing pains should be diminished. While Castro has the ability to turn in the fantastic play, the mind lapses and being a poor position for routine grounders drag his performance and metrics down.
Bottom line
Castro is a fine player. The Yankees are not breaking the bank to employ him and at the moment he is not blocking any minor leaguers. However, while Castro flashes spurts of brilliance at the plate and in the field, the knock is taking his talent and matching it with full-blown effort through an entire season. Until Castro improves his approach at the plate and his all-around focus, he will be viewed a nice piece, not the elite star he has the potential to reach.
MY TAKE:
The Yankees clearly won the trade by obtaining Castro and getting Warren back (because Chapman was leaving for free agency at the end of season and the Yanks had no chance of winning the AL East).
Castro had a 2.1 oWAR and a 1.2 overall WAR in 2016. Warren contributed a negative 0.9 WAR when he was with the Cubs.
Granted, Ben Zobrist had a better year. He had a 4.2 oWAR and 3.8 overall WAR in 2016.
With the emergence of Javy Baez, we don't know how much playing time Zobrist will have in 2017. But it is clear that Castro did not have a starting job in Chicago so he had to be traded to give Joe Maddon the championship roster pieces.
December 17, 2016
LIFE OF LUXURY
The Associated Press reported a record six teams
are paying baseball's luxury tax this season, led by the Los Angeles
Dodgers at $31.8 million and the New York Yankees at $27.4 million, the 14th straight year New York has had to pay the tax.
Other taxed clubs include Boston ($4.5 million), Detroit ($4
million), San Francisco ($3.4 million) and the World Series champion
Chicago Cubs ($2.96 million).
Los Angeles owes for the fourth
consecutive year and like New York pays at a 50 percent rate on the
amount above the $189 million threshold. The Dodgers paid a record $43
million for 2015, and their four-year total is $113 million.
Boston and San Francisco pay at a 30
percent rate as offenders for the second straight year, and Detroit and
the Cubs - a first-time payer - are at 17.5 percent.
The purpose of the
luxury tax in an effort to slow spending by large-market clubs and
combined with revenue sharing has helped increase the competitive of
small-market teams and those in the middle.
The threshold increases to $195
million next year under the new labor contract, and tax rates go up,
too. There will be additional surtaxes, raising the rate to as much as
95 percent for the amount above $235 million, with the increase to be
phased in for 2017 at the midpoint between the old and new rules.
Los Angeles lowered its payroll from a
record $291 million last year to just under $255 million, which topped
the major leagues for the third straight year. For purposes of the tax,
which uses average annual values and includes benefits, the Dodgers'
payroll was nearly $253 million.
Luxury tax payrolls figure to
increase slightly across the major leagues next year because of a
provision in the labor contract calling for the inclusion of salaries of
players sent outright to the minors starting this Dec. 1.
The Yankees' regular payroll was
second at $224.5 million, up slightly from last year's $223.6 million,
followed by Boston ($200.6 million), Detroit ($199 million), the Cubs
($182 million), San Francisco ($181 million) and the Los Angeles Angels
($173 million).
Milwaukee had the lowest payroll at
$65.5 million, down from $98 million last year. Tampa Bay was at $67
million, down from $77 million.
The AP report said that spending on 40-man major league payrolls totaled nearly $4.1 billion, an increase of $200 million.
There is an old saying that a team cannot "buy" a championship. But last year, the majority of big spending teams did well.
The Cubs got 103 wins, Boston 93, Dodgers 91, Giants 87, Detroit 86 and the Yankees 84. That is 544 total team wins by the luxury tax group or a winning percentage of .560 (about 91 wins).
There is an old saying that a team cannot "buy" a championship. But last year, the majority of big spending teams did well.
The Cubs got 103 wins, Boston 93, Dodgers 91, Giants 87, Detroit 86 and the Yankees 84. That is 544 total team wins by the luxury tax group or a winning percentage of .560 (about 91 wins).
July 26, 2016
THE TRADE
The Cubs overpaid for a 10 week regular season rental player.
Aroldis Chapman is an elite closer. Chapman, 28, has the highest strikeout rate per nine innings in baseball, and his fastball was recently clocked at 105 mph. The left-hander has a 2.01 ERA in with 20 saves in 21 opportunities for the Yankees.
In order to get the deal done, the Cubs sent four players to New York: #1 prospect Gleyber Torres, #4 prospect OF Billy McKinney, swingman P Adam Warren (who Chicago got from NY in the Starlin Castro trade) and Class A OF Rashad Crawford.
Torres, 19, was the main chip in the deal. He is projected to have plus defensive skills. But he was going to blocked at the major league level by Addison Russell and Javy Baez.
Warren was a mixed bag as Maddon did not use him consistently as the Yankees did last season as a starter and long reliever. McKinney came over from Oakland in the Russell deal, but he seems to also be blocked by Albert Almora who will succeed Dexter Fowler in CF in 2017.
The Yankees were adamant about getting four players for Chapman, because last off-season they traded four players to the Reds to get Chapman, who was in hot water for an alleged domestic violence investigation.
Chapman and his agent negotiated a 30 game suspension with the league which allowed Chapman to earn enough service time this year to become a free agent this off-season. As a Scott Boras client, Chapman will test the free agent market. He had said he had a preference to re-signing with the Yanks.
So Chapman is clearly a rental player for the Cubs.
Some fans may not like the idea of a bad person coming into the good clubhouse the Cubs have fostered under Joe Maddon. Apparently, Ricketts and the front office spoke to Chapman and set forth their expectations of him and his conduct. In a press release, Chapman said he accepted the league punishment and is working with his girlfriend to raise their daughter. Whether this partial apology will stop fans or the media from questioning Chapman is another matter.
The four players traded for Chapman does improve the back of the bullpen.
However, the four players traded for Chapman could have been used to pry a controllable starting pitcher from a team like the Rays. The Cubs had been advertising that they wanted to get a controllable starting pitcher prior to the Mike Montgomery trade.
But it appears Theo and Jed are in "win now" mode - - - a championship this season or bust. The trade allows Rondon and Strop to pitch the 8th and 7th innings, with Montgomery and Wood being situational pitchers, and Nathan, Edwards and Grimm in mop up roles.
Aroldis Chapman is an elite closer. Chapman, 28, has the highest strikeout rate per nine innings in baseball, and his fastball was recently clocked at 105 mph. The left-hander has a 2.01 ERA in with 20 saves in 21 opportunities for the Yankees.
In order to get the deal done, the Cubs sent four players to New York: #1 prospect Gleyber Torres, #4 prospect OF Billy McKinney, swingman P Adam Warren (who Chicago got from NY in the Starlin Castro trade) and Class A OF Rashad Crawford.
Torres, 19, was the main chip in the deal. He is projected to have plus defensive skills. But he was going to blocked at the major league level by Addison Russell and Javy Baez.
Warren was a mixed bag as Maddon did not use him consistently as the Yankees did last season as a starter and long reliever. McKinney came over from Oakland in the Russell deal, but he seems to also be blocked by Albert Almora who will succeed Dexter Fowler in CF in 2017.
The Yankees were adamant about getting four players for Chapman, because last off-season they traded four players to the Reds to get Chapman, who was in hot water for an alleged domestic violence investigation.
Chapman and his agent negotiated a 30 game suspension with the league which allowed Chapman to earn enough service time this year to become a free agent this off-season. As a Scott Boras client, Chapman will test the free agent market. He had said he had a preference to re-signing with the Yanks.
So Chapman is clearly a rental player for the Cubs.
Some fans may not like the idea of a bad person coming into the good clubhouse the Cubs have fostered under Joe Maddon. Apparently, Ricketts and the front office spoke to Chapman and set forth their expectations of him and his conduct. In a press release, Chapman said he accepted the league punishment and is working with his girlfriend to raise their daughter. Whether this partial apology will stop fans or the media from questioning Chapman is another matter.
The four players traded for Chapman does improve the back of the bullpen.
However, the four players traded for Chapman could have been used to pry a controllable starting pitcher from a team like the Rays. The Cubs had been advertising that they wanted to get a controllable starting pitcher prior to the Mike Montgomery trade.
But it appears Theo and Jed are in "win now" mode - - - a championship this season or bust. The trade allows Rondon and Strop to pitch the 8th and 7th innings, with Montgomery and Wood being situational pitchers, and Nathan, Edwards and Grimm in mop up roles.
April 2, 2016
SHUT OUTS
The season has not started by millions of baseball fans will be shut out.
NY Post reports the continuing saga of sports teams and cable operators over team license fees.
Cable operators are winning.
The head butt over broadcast rights fees continues at the start of the season by big carriage standoffs for regional sports networks in New York and Los Angeles.
The LA Times reports that Time Warner Cable sweetened its deal for SportsNet LA, the exclusive TV home of the Dodgers, but no deal has been come to pass.
The cable provider, which already cut the channel’s price by 30 percent for one year, offered pay-TV providers a new six-year deal to carry the regional sports net.
The first year would be at the lower $3.50-a-month introductory price with the rate ticking up in subsequent years, according to the LA Times, citing a source close to the talks.
So far, AT&T’s DirecTV and other pay-TV operators in Southern California have not responded to the latest offer, which means some 3 million homes in Southern California will miss out on Dodgers games for a third straight season.
The billion dollar Dodger cable network deal was based upon full coverage of the LA area. That has not happened, and it makes future megachannel deals unlikely for teams, including the Cubs.
The same situation is playing out in the New York area. YES, which airs Yankees games, has been blacked out on Comcast since November amid a carriage dispute with the network’s majority owner, 21st Century Fox.
The blackout affects about 900,000 Comcast subscribers who live in New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania.
Under its old contract, Comcast was guaranteed the lowest price because of a so-called “most favored nation” clause. It wants to continue that even though it lost its title as the biggest pay-TV provider to the combined AT&T- DirecTV.
NY Post reports the continuing saga of sports teams and cable operators over team license fees.
Cable operators are winning.
The head butt over broadcast rights fees continues at the start of the season by big carriage standoffs for regional sports networks in New York and Los Angeles.
The LA Times reports that Time Warner Cable sweetened its deal for SportsNet LA, the exclusive TV home of the Dodgers, but no deal has been come to pass.
The cable provider, which already cut the channel’s price by 30 percent for one year, offered pay-TV providers a new six-year deal to carry the regional sports net.
The first year would be at the lower $3.50-a-month introductory price with the rate ticking up in subsequent years, according to the LA Times, citing a source close to the talks.
So far, AT&T’s DirecTV and other pay-TV operators in Southern California have not responded to the latest offer, which means some 3 million homes in Southern California will miss out on Dodgers games for a third straight season.
The billion dollar Dodger cable network deal was based upon full coverage of the LA area. That has not happened, and it makes future megachannel deals unlikely for teams, including the Cubs.
The same situation is playing out in the New York area. YES, which airs Yankees games, has been blacked out on Comcast since November amid a carriage dispute with the network’s majority owner, 21st Century Fox.
The blackout affects about 900,000 Comcast subscribers who live in New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania.
Under its old contract, Comcast was guaranteed the lowest price because of a so-called “most favored nation” clause. It wants to continue that even though it lost its title as the biggest pay-TV provider to the combined AT&T- DirecTV.
December 29, 2015
THE HIGH COST OF RENTAL PLAYERS
MLBTR reports that the Yankees paid a high price to acquire a closer.
After months of trying to add a third dominant reliever to their bullpen, the Yankees on Monday announced the acquisition of left-hander Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for a quartet of minor leaguers. Third baseman Eric Jagielo will head to Cincinnati, as will second baseman Tony Renda and right-handers Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham. Chapman will presumably slide into the Yankees’ closer role, combining with fellow southpaw Andrew Miller and right-hander Dellin Betances to create perhaps the most formidable bullpen trio in all of Major League Baseball next season.
Chapman, 27, is arguably baseball’s best relief pitcher, is set to become a free agent in 2017. But there is a domestic violence allegations that ultimately halted a trade to the Dodgers from being finalized earlier this month. Chapman is currently being investigated by the league, and if he is found in violation of the league’s new domestic violence policy, he could fall short of the six years service time needed to become a free agent. It would seem the Yankees acquired Chapman in order to have exclusive negotiating rights to him during the 2016 season.
Cincinnati is the garage sale rebuild mode after trading All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier to the White Sox. The Reds have added two minor leaguers from the Yankees’ second tier of prospects (Jagielo #6 prospect and Davis #10 prospect) in addition to a pair of prospects that didn’t crack the Top 30 lists of either MLB.com or Baseball America.
Jagielo, 23, was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft out of Notre Dame. A knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery shortened his 2015 season, but when he was healthy, he batted .284/.347/.495 with nine homers in 58 games/248 plate appearances at the Double-A level. MLB.com’s scouting report notes that Jagielo is strong and has “good loft in his swing,” giving him the ability to drive the ball to all fields. His penchant for strikeouts (23.3 percent in 2015; 24.4 percent in 2014) is a red flag, but MLB.com notes that he draws enough walks to post sound OBP numbers even if his batting average is lackluster. The question surrounding Jagielo is whether he’ll stay at third base or move across the diamond to first, as questions about his range and arm strength are oft-cited strikes against him. Despite those potential issues, MLB.com did rate him as the No. 7 third-base prospect in the game.
As for Davis, Norris notes in his scouting report over at BA that alterations to his delivery led to a breakout of sorts in 2015. Davis pitched to a combined 3.86 ERA with 8.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in in 130 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. The mechanical changes resulted in increased velocity, per Norris, who writes that Davis sits 93 to 95 mph with his heater — a pitch that is complemented by a sharp mid-70s curve and a low-80s changeup. BA indicates that he could be a mid-rotation starter, while MLB.com notes that he has good control but spotty command (i.e. throws strikes but doesn’t command the pitches within the strike zone) and could be best suited for a relief role, where his velocity could approach triple digits.
The Yankees acquired Renda, 24, from the Nationals this past season in exchange for right-hander David Carpenter. The fleet-footed infielder batted .269/.330/.358 in 532 Double-A plate appearances between the two organizations, adding three homers and 23 steals (in 29 attempts). Renda rated 12th among Nationals farmhands last season and was 22nd on MLB.com’s Top 30 at the time of the trade to the Yankees in early June. BA praised his compact swing and line-drive stroke in last winter’s scouting report, noting that his bat has a chance to be above-average, and he’s tough to strike out. He’s drawn praise for his makeup and work ethic as well as his advanced bat control while noting that he lacked power.
Cotham, who turned 28 in November, made his big league debut with the Yankees this past season but struggled, yielding seven runs on 14 hits (four homers) and a walk with 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings. That 11-to-1 K/BB ratio is encouraging, however, as is the 1.74 ERA that Cotham recorded in 31 innings at the Triple-A level, where he struck out 30 batters and walked just five. Cotham worked exclusively out of the bullpen between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015, totaling a 2.21 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He could potentially step directly into the Reds’ bullpen, where he’d bring a fastball that averaged 92.6 mph in his brief big league tenure this past season.
MLBTR concludes that the Reds added mid-level prospects and an MLB-ready bullpen arm in exchange for one year of the game’s best closer. Some may think the return is somewhat disappointing in a vacuum, it’s clear that Chapman’s domestic violence allegations rightly lowered the asking price and prevented Cincinnati from maximizing his value in a trade. But in reality, the Reds did receive four (4) prospects with potential upsides to add depth to their minor league system.
The Reds ended last season with five rookie starting pitchers. The team is on a development track by quickly advancing prospects to the major leagues. In that type of environment, there is an incentive for players to work harder to get to the majors quicker - - - which can quickly mold a core of good, young players.
After months of trying to add a third dominant reliever to their bullpen, the Yankees on Monday announced the acquisition of left-hander Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for a quartet of minor leaguers. Third baseman Eric Jagielo will head to Cincinnati, as will second baseman Tony Renda and right-handers Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham. Chapman will presumably slide into the Yankees’ closer role, combining with fellow southpaw Andrew Miller and right-hander Dellin Betances to create perhaps the most formidable bullpen trio in all of Major League Baseball next season.
Chapman, 27, is arguably baseball’s best relief pitcher, is set to become a free agent in 2017. But there is a domestic violence allegations that ultimately halted a trade to the Dodgers from being finalized earlier this month. Chapman is currently being investigated by the league, and if he is found in violation of the league’s new domestic violence policy, he could fall short of the six years service time needed to become a free agent. It would seem the Yankees acquired Chapman in order to have exclusive negotiating rights to him during the 2016 season.
Cincinnati is the garage sale rebuild mode after trading All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier to the White Sox. The Reds have added two minor leaguers from the Yankees’ second tier of prospects (Jagielo #6 prospect and Davis #10 prospect) in addition to a pair of prospects that didn’t crack the Top 30 lists of either MLB.com or Baseball America.
Jagielo, 23, was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft out of Notre Dame. A knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery shortened his 2015 season, but when he was healthy, he batted .284/.347/.495 with nine homers in 58 games/248 plate appearances at the Double-A level. MLB.com’s scouting report notes that Jagielo is strong and has “good loft in his swing,” giving him the ability to drive the ball to all fields. His penchant for strikeouts (23.3 percent in 2015; 24.4 percent in 2014) is a red flag, but MLB.com notes that he draws enough walks to post sound OBP numbers even if his batting average is lackluster. The question surrounding Jagielo is whether he’ll stay at third base or move across the diamond to first, as questions about his range and arm strength are oft-cited strikes against him. Despite those potential issues, MLB.com did rate him as the No. 7 third-base prospect in the game.
As for Davis, Norris notes in his scouting report over at BA that alterations to his delivery led to a breakout of sorts in 2015. Davis pitched to a combined 3.86 ERA with 8.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in in 130 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. The mechanical changes resulted in increased velocity, per Norris, who writes that Davis sits 93 to 95 mph with his heater — a pitch that is complemented by a sharp mid-70s curve and a low-80s changeup. BA indicates that he could be a mid-rotation starter, while MLB.com notes that he has good control but spotty command (i.e. throws strikes but doesn’t command the pitches within the strike zone) and could be best suited for a relief role, where his velocity could approach triple digits.
The Yankees acquired Renda, 24, from the Nationals this past season in exchange for right-hander David Carpenter. The fleet-footed infielder batted .269/.330/.358 in 532 Double-A plate appearances between the two organizations, adding three homers and 23 steals (in 29 attempts). Renda rated 12th among Nationals farmhands last season and was 22nd on MLB.com’s Top 30 at the time of the trade to the Yankees in early June. BA praised his compact swing and line-drive stroke in last winter’s scouting report, noting that his bat has a chance to be above-average, and he’s tough to strike out. He’s drawn praise for his makeup and work ethic as well as his advanced bat control while noting that he lacked power.
Cotham, who turned 28 in November, made his big league debut with the Yankees this past season but struggled, yielding seven runs on 14 hits (four homers) and a walk with 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings. That 11-to-1 K/BB ratio is encouraging, however, as is the 1.74 ERA that Cotham recorded in 31 innings at the Triple-A level, where he struck out 30 batters and walked just five. Cotham worked exclusively out of the bullpen between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015, totaling a 2.21 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He could potentially step directly into the Reds’ bullpen, where he’d bring a fastball that averaged 92.6 mph in his brief big league tenure this past season.
MLBTR concludes that the Reds added mid-level prospects and an MLB-ready bullpen arm in exchange for one year of the game’s best closer. Some may think the return is somewhat disappointing in a vacuum, it’s clear that Chapman’s domestic violence allegations rightly lowered the asking price and prevented Cincinnati from maximizing his value in a trade. But in reality, the Reds did receive four (4) prospects with potential upsides to add depth to their minor league system.
The Reds ended last season with five rookie starting pitchers. The team is on a development track by quickly advancing prospects to the major leagues. In that type of environment, there is an incentive for players to work harder to get to the majors quicker - - - which can quickly mold a core of good, young players.
December 9, 2015
CASHING OUT
Starlin Castro should have been traded two years ago to the Yankees. Well, some may think it was better later than never.
Castro's trade to the Yankees was a salary dump move by the Cubs in order to sign Ben Zobrist. Zobrist, who has had a fabulous history as a super utility guy, had a significant drop off in his WAR last season. At 35 and in a full time role in a major market, one would expect Zobrist's contract will have some dead money attached to it.
Last season with two clubs, Zobrist hit .276 with 13 HR and 56 RBI. His WAR was 1.9. In his prior four years his WAR totals were 4.9, 5.0, 5.7, and 8.7. In ten major league seasons, his career WAR is 38.5.
Zobrist's 4 year/$56 million deal was about a third less than the claimed deal he had with the Mets at $80 million. Still, it more than double last year's salary.
With these two moves, by my calculation the Cubs have hit the ceiling of their 2016 payroll budget. This means that the Cubs will have a CF platoon of Coghlan and Szczur.
Mark Gonzales of the Tribune reports the way that the contracts of John Lackey and Zobrist were structured would allow the Cubs to continue to look for pitching as well as address their void in center field with the expected departure of free agent center fielder Dexter Fowler.
"We’ll continue to pursue smaller moves for depth," President Theo Epstein said. "Obviously we’d welcome an impact move if it’s out there. All the moves we have been pursuing previously here are potentially alive for us."
Zobrist's four-year, $56 million contract was structured so that he'll receive a $2 million bonus with a $10 million salary in 2016, followed by salaries of $16 million in 2017 and 2018 and $12 million in 2019.
Lackey will receive a $7 million bonus with a salary of $12.5 million in 2016 and 2017. The Cubs have earmarked about $90 million to 12 players for 2016 - including $11 million for since-departed Edwin Jackson.
The Cubs were looking to obtain cheap, young, controllable pitchers. Adam Warren from the Yankees meets those requirements. Warren, 28, is a classic 6th starter/long reliever. He probably will make the opening day roster as swing man out of the pen if Jason Hammel is still on the roster, or as a long shot to be the 5th starter. With this move, either Grimm or Ramirez is on the bullpen bubble.
The Cubs front office has used all of its powder this off-season, mostly bringing in veterans to shore up a few holes, and juggling a tight payroll budget. Joe Maddon said to the press that repeating last season's 97 wins would be a challenge. That is not what fans want to hear.
Castro's trade to the Yankees was a salary dump move by the Cubs in order to sign Ben Zobrist. Zobrist, who has had a fabulous history as a super utility guy, had a significant drop off in his WAR last season. At 35 and in a full time role in a major market, one would expect Zobrist's contract will have some dead money attached to it.
Last season with two clubs, Zobrist hit .276 with 13 HR and 56 RBI. His WAR was 1.9. In his prior four years his WAR totals were 4.9, 5.0, 5.7, and 8.7. In ten major league seasons, his career WAR is 38.5.
Zobrist's 4 year/$56 million deal was about a third less than the claimed deal he had with the Mets at $80 million. Still, it more than double last year's salary.
With these two moves, by my calculation the Cubs have hit the ceiling of their 2016 payroll budget. This means that the Cubs will have a CF platoon of Coghlan and Szczur.
Mark Gonzales of the Tribune reports the way that the contracts of John Lackey and Zobrist were structured would allow the Cubs to continue to look for pitching as well as address their void in center field with the expected departure of free agent center fielder Dexter Fowler.
"We’ll continue to pursue smaller moves for depth," President Theo Epstein said. "Obviously we’d welcome an impact move if it’s out there. All the moves we have been pursuing previously here are potentially alive for us."
Zobrist's four-year, $56 million contract was structured so that he'll receive a $2 million bonus with a $10 million salary in 2016, followed by salaries of $16 million in 2017 and 2018 and $12 million in 2019.
Lackey will receive a $7 million bonus with a salary of $12.5 million in 2016 and 2017. The Cubs have earmarked about $90 million to 12 players for 2016 - including $11 million for since-departed Edwin Jackson.
The Cubs were looking to obtain cheap, young, controllable pitchers. Adam Warren from the Yankees meets those requirements. Warren, 28, is a classic 6th starter/long reliever. He probably will make the opening day roster as swing man out of the pen if Jason Hammel is still on the roster, or as a long shot to be the 5th starter. With this move, either Grimm or Ramirez is on the bullpen bubble.
The Cubs front office has used all of its powder this off-season, mostly bringing in veterans to shore up a few holes, and juggling a tight payroll budget. Joe Maddon said to the press that repeating last season's 97 wins would be a challenge. That is not what fans want to hear.
December 1, 2015
YES NETWORK TOLD NO
Over the holiday weekend, Comcast just dropped the YES network.
Putting together the pieces, the cable operator said it was too expensive to carry the network. From reports: Comcast dropped YES Network, the television home of the New York Yankees, Brooklyn Nets and other programming, in Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania at midnight Wednesday.
The Yankees have a 20 percent stake in YES, while 21st Century Fox owns the remaining 80 percent. Comcast claims Fox's demand for a 33 percent increase in subscriber fees is too high for the network, which leans heavily on its Yankees programming for viewers. The two parties' previous agreement expired earlier this year during the Yankees' season. Comcast and Fox agreed to temporary deals to keep broadcasting during the Yankees' playoff hunt.
However, now that the season is over and the Nets are one of the worst teams in the NBA, Comcast has hardened its line and Fox won't budge. The final midnight deadline passed, and YES Network was blacked out.
Comcast said in a statement:
YES Network carried approximately 130 baseball games this past season and well over 90 percent of our 900,000 plus customers who receive YES Network didn’t watch the equivalent of even one quarter of those games during the season, even while the Yankees were in the hunt for a playoff berth. Viewership of the network in the baseball offseason is even lower. FOX and the Yankees are asking all of our customers to pay them hundreds of millions of dollars over the next several years to continue receiving the channel. The price FOX and the Yankees are requiring from our customers is not acceptable given the Network’s minimal viewership, which is why we have decided we can no longer justify continuing to carry the Network. YES simply does not present an appropriate price-value proposition for our customers.
A Comcast spokesman declined to comment on whether negotiations would continue.
Comcast has 900,000 YES subscribers in Pennsylvania, Connecticut and New Jersey — the latter two states will be most affected by the loss of hometown sports broadcasts. Comcast is not currently franchised in New York, where YES will continue to broadcast. With the Yankees season over and the Brooklyn Nets off to a less-than-stellar start, losing nine of the last 10 games, the YES Network may not have much leverage on its side at the moment. Moreover, the network is the most costly regional sports network, according to SNL Kagan, raking in $4.89 a month on average per cable TV customer. YES Network is carried in more than nine million homes in the New York market.
>>>> Two key points from the reports: 1. YES Network was extremely expensive to pass on to cable viewers, which shows in that only 10% of Comcast customers carried the channel. 2. The YES network received about $53 million per year from Comcast, which is a huge revenue source.
This also bodes ill for the Cubs planned 2020 launch of the Cubs Network. New York-New Jersey-Philadelphia market is about double the Chicago television market. The YES Network wanted a 33% increase in its carriage fees. Now, cable operators have been losing subscribers for years, mostly from the high cost of sports channels that many do not want to have on their bills. Comcast made a business decision that puts approximately 225,000 Yankee-Nets fans in the dark.
If you try to tie down the projected Cubs numbers off the YES model, with a 10 percent saturation rate, the Cubs cable base would be around 450,000 paid viewers, at only $13.5 million in annual revenue. This is a far cry from the billion dollar Dodger network deal, which now seems like a total disaster for Time Warner cable, the Dodgers' partner.
ESPN has been the kingpin in cable channels, but its luck has turned for the worse.
A steep drop in subscribers over the last two years has resulted in a $900 million annual hit to ESPN's bottom line.Analyst reports and SEC filings indicate that between 2013 to 2015, ESPN lost about 7 million total subscribers, with the flagship channels ESPN and ESPN 2 each dropping 4 percent from a high of 99 million to 95 million subs today. Dropping most dramatically was ESPN Classic, which is down 16.1 percent to 26 million subscribers.
The launch last year of the SEC Network, which has around 63 million subs, has helped "mask" a huge drop in affiliate revenue from ESPN's other networks. Based on an average per-subscriber carriage fee of $6.61 for ESPN, $0.83 for ESPN2, $0.63 for the SEC Network and $0.22 for ESPNU, the national sports conglomerate is taking in around $650 million less each year in affiliate fees compared to two years ago.
Meanwhile, he estimates the resulting loss of advertiser reach has shaved off another $200 million to $300 million from ESPN's bottom line.
So the gold standard of cable sports channels is getting hammered by lower subscriber base and declining cable advertising revenues. If ESPN and YES have major problems with their sports networks, how can anyone in the Cubs business office think they can do better on a more limited product in a smaller market?
Putting together the pieces, the cable operator said it was too expensive to carry the network. From reports: Comcast dropped YES Network, the television home of the New York Yankees, Brooklyn Nets and other programming, in Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania at midnight Wednesday.
The Yankees have a 20 percent stake in YES, while 21st Century Fox owns the remaining 80 percent. Comcast claims Fox's demand for a 33 percent increase in subscriber fees is too high for the network, which leans heavily on its Yankees programming for viewers. The two parties' previous agreement expired earlier this year during the Yankees' season. Comcast and Fox agreed to temporary deals to keep broadcasting during the Yankees' playoff hunt.
However, now that the season is over and the Nets are one of the worst teams in the NBA, Comcast has hardened its line and Fox won't budge. The final midnight deadline passed, and YES Network was blacked out.
Comcast said in a statement:
YES Network carried approximately 130 baseball games this past season and well over 90 percent of our 900,000 plus customers who receive YES Network didn’t watch the equivalent of even one quarter of those games during the season, even while the Yankees were in the hunt for a playoff berth. Viewership of the network in the baseball offseason is even lower. FOX and the Yankees are asking all of our customers to pay them hundreds of millions of dollars over the next several years to continue receiving the channel. The price FOX and the Yankees are requiring from our customers is not acceptable given the Network’s minimal viewership, which is why we have decided we can no longer justify continuing to carry the Network. YES simply does not present an appropriate price-value proposition for our customers.
A Comcast spokesman declined to comment on whether negotiations would continue.
Comcast has 900,000 YES subscribers in Pennsylvania, Connecticut and New Jersey — the latter two states will be most affected by the loss of hometown sports broadcasts. Comcast is not currently franchised in New York, where YES will continue to broadcast. With the Yankees season over and the Brooklyn Nets off to a less-than-stellar start, losing nine of the last 10 games, the YES Network may not have much leverage on its side at the moment. Moreover, the network is the most costly regional sports network, according to SNL Kagan, raking in $4.89 a month on average per cable TV customer. YES Network is carried in more than nine million homes in the New York market.
>>>> Two key points from the reports: 1. YES Network was extremely expensive to pass on to cable viewers, which shows in that only 10% of Comcast customers carried the channel. 2. The YES network received about $53 million per year from Comcast, which is a huge revenue source.
This also bodes ill for the Cubs planned 2020 launch of the Cubs Network. New York-New Jersey-Philadelphia market is about double the Chicago television market. The YES Network wanted a 33% increase in its carriage fees. Now, cable operators have been losing subscribers for years, mostly from the high cost of sports channels that many do not want to have on their bills. Comcast made a business decision that puts approximately 225,000 Yankee-Nets fans in the dark.
If you try to tie down the projected Cubs numbers off the YES model, with a 10 percent saturation rate, the Cubs cable base would be around 450,000 paid viewers, at only $13.5 million in annual revenue. This is a far cry from the billion dollar Dodger network deal, which now seems like a total disaster for Time Warner cable, the Dodgers' partner.
ESPN has been the kingpin in cable channels, but its luck has turned for the worse.
A steep drop in subscribers over the last two years has resulted in a $900 million annual hit to ESPN's bottom line.Analyst reports and SEC filings indicate that between 2013 to 2015, ESPN lost about 7 million total subscribers, with the flagship channels ESPN and ESPN 2 each dropping 4 percent from a high of 99 million to 95 million subs today. Dropping most dramatically was ESPN Classic, which is down 16.1 percent to 26 million subscribers.
The launch last year of the SEC Network, which has around 63 million subs, has helped "mask" a huge drop in affiliate revenue from ESPN's other networks. Based on an average per-subscriber carriage fee of $6.61 for ESPN, $0.83 for ESPN2, $0.63 for the SEC Network and $0.22 for ESPNU, the national sports conglomerate is taking in around $650 million less each year in affiliate fees compared to two years ago.
Meanwhile, he estimates the resulting loss of advertiser reach has shaved off another $200 million to $300 million from ESPN's bottom line.
So the gold standard of cable sports channels is getting hammered by lower subscriber base and declining cable advertising revenues. If ESPN and YES have major problems with their sports networks, how can anyone in the Cubs business office think they can do better on a more limited product in a smaller market?
September 23, 2015
THE PRICE TO PAY
From the NY Post:
TORONTO – David Price remind you of anyone?
A lefty who combines the qualities of both a workhorse and an ace. A guy with a Cy Young in the bank. A No. 1 starter traded during his walk year, excelling for a franchise (the Blue Jays) that has not been to the postseason in ages (since 1993).
He is pretty much the closest thing to CC Sabathia since Sabathia, a lefty workhorse ace who had won a Cy Young when he was traded in his walk year (2008) to a Brewers team he spearheaded to its first playoff berth since 1982.
The Yankees essentially planned for 12 months to move heaven, earth and ultimately $161 million to assure they signed Sabathia, and now Sabathia looms as a major reason why the Yankees will probably not even be in play for Price this offseason.
No matter what has happened the past few years, I believe Sabathia was a superb signing — and ultimately re-signing — for the Yankees. He was the ace on a champion (2009), a terrific competitor and a clubhouse stabilizer.
But he is part of an older, expensive group (with Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, in particular) that has spooked even the usually aggressive factions of the Yankees hierarchy about lavish long-term contracts – particularly for pitchers in their 30s with big workloads. Price turned 30 in August and has thrown the fourth-most innings in the majors since 2010.
Price’s brilliance with the Blue Jays has done much to assure he gets at least the seven-year, $210 million pact Max Scherzer received last offseason. The Blue Jays have never given a free-agent contract of more than five years, and no one expects incoming team president Mark Shapiro – with his conservative background in Cleveland – to alter that, though the groundswell to keep Price in Toronto will be similar to the clamor for Yoenis Cespedes in Queens.
>>>> The article makes some valid points, which all teams, including the Cubs, should take into consideration during the winter free agent market.
The Cubs already banked $155 million on an "ace," Jon Lester, who has been good but not as good as Jake Arrieta. Price is expected to get at least $210 million. It is hard to imagine that the Cubs "business" people will want to tie up $365 million on two pitchers in their 30s.
Jerry Reinsdorf always put his foot down on any long term pitching contract. He feared pitchers broke down more than hitters; and that even without injury, pitchers sometimes lose their stuff. But agents and the market frenzy has driven up contact years from 3 or 4 to 7 to 10. The back end of the contracts seem to have a tendency to be "dead money" that hampers teams from making moves in the future.
The Yankees were the poster child for big spending, high profile free agent signings. But things started to change when the team did not re-sign their own guy, Robinson Cano. The front office has started to believe in taking compensation and regular draft picks to shore up their long term roster holes. Sabathia's deal is haunting them to play it more conservatively with free agents.
Whether other teams have "buyer's remorse" over past free agent deals is another question. If a GM can convince an owner that the team is one player away from a title, then it is possible to green light potential dead money deal.
TORONTO – David Price remind you of anyone?
A lefty who combines the qualities of both a workhorse and an ace. A guy with a Cy Young in the bank. A No. 1 starter traded during his walk year, excelling for a franchise (the Blue Jays) that has not been to the postseason in ages (since 1993).
He is pretty much the closest thing to CC Sabathia since Sabathia, a lefty workhorse ace who had won a Cy Young when he was traded in his walk year (2008) to a Brewers team he spearheaded to its first playoff berth since 1982.
The Yankees essentially planned for 12 months to move heaven, earth and ultimately $161 million to assure they signed Sabathia, and now Sabathia looms as a major reason why the Yankees will probably not even be in play for Price this offseason.
No matter what has happened the past few years, I believe Sabathia was a superb signing — and ultimately re-signing — for the Yankees. He was the ace on a champion (2009), a terrific competitor and a clubhouse stabilizer.
But he is part of an older, expensive group (with Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, in particular) that has spooked even the usually aggressive factions of the Yankees hierarchy about lavish long-term contracts – particularly for pitchers in their 30s with big workloads. Price turned 30 in August and has thrown the fourth-most innings in the majors since 2010.
Price’s brilliance with the Blue Jays has done much to assure he gets at least the seven-year, $210 million pact Max Scherzer received last offseason. The Blue Jays have never given a free-agent contract of more than five years, and no one expects incoming team president Mark Shapiro – with his conservative background in Cleveland – to alter that, though the groundswell to keep Price in Toronto will be similar to the clamor for Yoenis Cespedes in Queens.
>>>> The article makes some valid points, which all teams, including the Cubs, should take into consideration during the winter free agent market.
The Cubs already banked $155 million on an "ace," Jon Lester, who has been good but not as good as Jake Arrieta. Price is expected to get at least $210 million. It is hard to imagine that the Cubs "business" people will want to tie up $365 million on two pitchers in their 30s.
Jerry Reinsdorf always put his foot down on any long term pitching contract. He feared pitchers broke down more than hitters; and that even without injury, pitchers sometimes lose their stuff. But agents and the market frenzy has driven up contact years from 3 or 4 to 7 to 10. The back end of the contracts seem to have a tendency to be "dead money" that hampers teams from making moves in the future.
The Yankees were the poster child for big spending, high profile free agent signings. But things started to change when the team did not re-sign their own guy, Robinson Cano. The front office has started to believe in taking compensation and regular draft picks to shore up their long term roster holes. Sabathia's deal is haunting them to play it more conservatively with free agents.
Whether other teams have "buyer's remorse" over past free agent deals is another question. If a GM can convince an owner that the team is one player away from a title, then it is possible to green light potential dead money deal.
June 25, 2015
TRADE BLOCKS
Why some teams handcuff themselves by giving players "trade blocks" in their contracts is one of those annoying realities of baseball. It is a player perk that agents have been pushing for, even in the richest of contract deals. In normal business, an employee has some say in where he or she works if there is a company consolidation, merger or relocation. Employees can leave their companies and find new jobs to their liking in any city they choose. So in that sense, star baseball players with no trade clauses are similar to other parts of the American employment landscape.
If it is not the money, then it should be about winning. But some players have home life quality of life issues to think about, too. That may be the hidden driving force on why more and more players are demanding trade blocks.
Hamels may not have an adversity to the State of Texas, because it is reported that talks with the Rangers have been made about a trade. The Rangers and the Yankees are in the mix because
both of whom could use an upgrade to their pitching staffs as they
approach the All-Star break. Hamels is set to earn $70.5 million between
2016 and 2018, and while his price tag isn't holding big money teams like the Rangers or Yankees from swinging a deal, the cost in return players and prospects may be the key.
But it hurts a GM that he can leverage a star player on the market if the player's contract effectively eliminates two-thirds of the potential trade partners. The Yanks and Rangers know this, too. If the Phillies are looking for a big haul (like a team's #1 and #2 prospects, a major league ready pitcher and some additional bullpen help) the Astros have a deeper farm system than the Yankees.
There will be soon daily speculation stories about Hamels. In the end, he may not even be moved by the Phils.
If it is not the money, then it should be about winning. But some players have home life quality of life issues to think about, too. That may be the hidden driving force on why more and more players are demanding trade blocks.
Phillies ace pitcher Cole Hamels is adamant about one
thing: he will not be suiting up for the Houston Astros. According to KHOU,
the left-hander's contract accords him up to 20 teams that he can
refuse to be traded to, and the Astros are at the top of the list
despite leading their division and boasting an outstanding pitching
staff.
Hamels has turned out a decent
season for the Phillies so far, sitting on a 5-5 record with a 3.55 FIP
and 103 strikeouts through 94 1/3 innings. His 2.96 ERA is the 11th best
among National League starters, and though his efforts have yielded a
team-best 1.7 fWAR, the Phillies can better utilize him as a trade chip
during the weeks leading up to the trade deadline.
But it hurts a GM that he can leverage a star player on the market if the player's contract effectively eliminates two-thirds of the potential trade partners. The Yanks and Rangers know this, too. If the Phillies are looking for a big haul (like a team's #1 and #2 prospects, a major league ready pitcher and some additional bullpen help) the Astros have a deeper farm system than the Yankees.
There will be soon daily speculation stories about Hamels. In the end, he may not even be moved by the Phils.
June 20, 2015
3000 HITS
Alex Rodriguez became the 29th player in major league history to make it to 3,000 hits.
He hit a home run in his first at bat.
It is semi-ironic since A-Rod is going to be remembered throughout history as one of those who used performance enhancing drugs to power his way through the record books.
Many believe that it does not matter. Baseball history is filled with stories of players trying to get an edge, from scuffing the ball to taking uppers. Steroid use will only be a footnote in the Cooperstown history book.
The discussion usually centers upon how hard is it to get 3,000 hits.
From the standpoint of a full time starter, and qualification for a batting title (502 at bats), that means a career .300 hitter would get 150 hits per season. The simple calculation is that a player needs 150 hits per season for 20 years.
Is it harder to get 300 wins?
A starter will have 32 chances each season. Even if he wins half his games (16), he would need 18.75 seasons to get to 300. But pitchers rarely make all 32 starts, or average 16 wins a season for an entire career. Greg Maddux had 15 or more wins in 18 of his 23 seasons as a major league pitcher to total 355 career wins. There are only 24 players with 300 wins.
But now with pitch counts and specialty relievers in the bullpen, starters may not get the chance to gain wins if they are only required to pitch 5 or 6 innings per contest even in tied or close games.
The consensus is that it is harder to get 300 wins than 3,000 hits.
He hit a home run in his first at bat.
It is semi-ironic since A-Rod is going to be remembered throughout history as one of those who used performance enhancing drugs to power his way through the record books.
Many believe that it does not matter. Baseball history is filled with stories of players trying to get an edge, from scuffing the ball to taking uppers. Steroid use will only be a footnote in the Cooperstown history book.
The discussion usually centers upon how hard is it to get 3,000 hits.
From the standpoint of a full time starter, and qualification for a batting title (502 at bats), that means a career .300 hitter would get 150 hits per season. The simple calculation is that a player needs 150 hits per season for 20 years.
Is it harder to get 300 wins?
A starter will have 32 chances each season. Even if he wins half his games (16), he would need 18.75 seasons to get to 300. But pitchers rarely make all 32 starts, or average 16 wins a season for an entire career. Greg Maddux had 15 or more wins in 18 of his 23 seasons as a major league pitcher to total 355 career wins. There are only 24 players with 300 wins.
But now with pitch counts and specialty relievers in the bullpen, starters may not get the chance to gain wins if they are only required to pitch 5 or 6 innings per contest even in tied or close games.
The consensus is that it is harder to get 300 wins than 3,000 hits.
February 14, 2015
A-ROID
Alex Rodriguez apparently apologized this week to his team.
Whether the Yankees want or need A-Rod back in the fold is the $60 million question.
$60 million is what A-Rod is owed on his deal. It may be more with home run bonus clauses. The Yankees have tried to find a way out of the contract, claiming A-Rod breached it, but MLB and the players union would probably not allow it.
Rodriguez is 39. He played in only 44 games last season. He hit .244.
He is the poster child for cheating, PED use. He apologized once before, and kept on using by all accounts in the Biogenesis scandal.
So why would the Yankees want an old, drug broken cancer in their clubhouse?
Rodriguez wants to play and he will probably fight his way through the door.
But the team does not have to allow it. They can pay him off and cast him aside like many other aged, dead money ball players.
The Yankees are all about pride and winning. The team has finished second and third in the AL East the last two seasons, with win totals around 84.5.
Most people in NY believe A-Rod can't field well anymore. He is a defensive liability. At best, he would be a DH. But a DH with probable limited power. But the team already has Garrett Jones and Chris Young to platoon at DH.
It is how much of a media circus the Yankees are willing to take in 2015.
If baseball really wants to send a message about the steroid era, A-Rod should never play another game. But in essence, A-Rod still wins by cheating: he gets paid for his past enhanced performance.
Whether the Yankees want or need A-Rod back in the fold is the $60 million question.
$60 million is what A-Rod is owed on his deal. It may be more with home run bonus clauses. The Yankees have tried to find a way out of the contract, claiming A-Rod breached it, but MLB and the players union would probably not allow it.
Rodriguez is 39. He played in only 44 games last season. He hit .244.
He is the poster child for cheating, PED use. He apologized once before, and kept on using by all accounts in the Biogenesis scandal.
So why would the Yankees want an old, drug broken cancer in their clubhouse?
Rodriguez wants to play and he will probably fight his way through the door.
But the team does not have to allow it. They can pay him off and cast him aside like many other aged, dead money ball players.
The Yankees are all about pride and winning. The team has finished second and third in the AL East the last two seasons, with win totals around 84.5.
Most people in NY believe A-Rod can't field well anymore. He is a defensive liability. At best, he would be a DH. But a DH with probable limited power. But the team already has Garrett Jones and Chris Young to platoon at DH.
It is how much of a media circus the Yankees are willing to take in 2015.
If baseball really wants to send a message about the steroid era, A-Rod should never play another game. But in essence, A-Rod still wins by cheating: he gets paid for his past enhanced performance.
December 5, 2014
PULLING THE TRIGGER
Everyone knew the Yankees were in the market for a shortstop replacement. We thought that the Cubs would be an ample trading partner for the Yankees. For whatever reason, nothing gelled in that regard because the Yankees apparently found their replacement middle infielder.
The Yankees acquired Didi Gregorius from the Diamondbacks in a three way trade with Tigers. Gregoriusis a typical good glove weak bat shortstop. But he has major league experience.
The Tigers get a fifth starter in pitcher Shane Green. In his short career, he is about an average major league starter which is okay in the back of a deep rotation.
The Diamondbacks get two players: lefty Robbie Ray, who last year posted a 1.59 ERA through is first five starts at Triple-A, with a 21/5 K/BB ratio in 28 innings, showing his promise, but he is not a flawless prospect, and shortstop Domingo Leyba from the Tigers. He’s only 19 and hasn’t played above A-ball, but he hit very well across two levels in 67 games last season. In leagues in which he was very young.
Apparently, the Yankees were eager to get a deal to solidify their shortstop position before the winter meetings. If the Cubs were inclined to trade a surplus middle infielder to a team that really needed one, this could be a missed opportunity.
The Yankees acquired Didi Gregorius from the Diamondbacks in a three way trade with Tigers. Gregoriusis a typical good glove weak bat shortstop. But he has major league experience.
The Tigers get a fifth starter in pitcher Shane Green. In his short career, he is about an average major league starter which is okay in the back of a deep rotation.
The Diamondbacks get two players: lefty Robbie Ray, who last year posted a 1.59 ERA through is first five starts at Triple-A, with a 21/5 K/BB ratio in 28 innings, showing his promise, but he is not a flawless prospect, and shortstop Domingo Leyba from the Tigers. He’s only 19 and hasn’t played above A-ball, but he hit very well across two levels in 67 games last season. In leagues in which he was very young.
Apparently, the Yankees were eager to get a deal to solidify their shortstop position before the winter meetings. If the Cubs were inclined to trade a surplus middle infielder to a team that really needed one, this could be a missed opportunity.
November 26, 2014
ROLLINS DOWN THE RIVER
Jayson Stark reported that the Yankees and Phillies discussed a trade of 35 year old shortstop Jimmy Rollins.
The Phils downplayed the report, stating that Rollins would be hard to replace. Rollins and some other veterans were reportedly at odds with new manager Ryne Sandberg's style.
Rollins is due $11 million this season and his contract is up at the end of 2015. Rollins hit .243 with 55 RBI and stole 28 bases in 2014.
The Yankees need a veteran to replace Derek Jeter.
As proposed here many times, Starlin Castro would be an option for New York. He is young, under a team friendly contract, and the Cubs have a surplus of middle infielders.
But the asking price would be high.
And the Yankees are not known for having a deep minor league system.
But if the Yanks are looking at a 35 year old shortstop for one year, then there is a hint of desperation.
That is the best trade partner one can have.
The Phils downplayed the report, stating that Rollins would be hard to replace. Rollins and some other veterans were reportedly at odds with new manager Ryne Sandberg's style.
Rollins is due $11 million this season and his contract is up at the end of 2015. Rollins hit .243 with 55 RBI and stole 28 bases in 2014.
The Yankees need a veteran to replace Derek Jeter.
As proposed here many times, Starlin Castro would be an option for New York. He is young, under a team friendly contract, and the Cubs have a surplus of middle infielders.
But the asking price would be high.
And the Yankees are not known for having a deep minor league system.
But if the Yanks are looking at a 35 year old shortstop for one year, then there is a hint of desperation.
That is the best trade partner one can have.
November 14, 2014
JETER REPLACEMENT
The quest for Derek Jeter's replacement has begun. The NY Post speculates on a prime target of the Yankee search:
One shortstop who at least has the Yankees intrigued as they rev up their efforts to find Derek Jeter’s successor is Texas’ Elvis Andrus.
The Yankees would have to feel Andrus is a buy-low candidate whose downturn on both sides of the ball in 2014 was reversible and that, at 26, his best years are ahead of him.
Andrus’ eight-year, $120 million extension does not even begin until next season and runs through at least 2022. Texas would love to unload that deal as it searches this market for starting pitching. The Rangers can go inexpensive in the middle infield with some combination of Rougned Odor, Jurickson Profar and Luis Sardinas. However, they would be more comfortable doing that if they knew for sure Profar was going to be healthy moving forward after missing all of 2014 after tearing (then re-tearing) a muscle in his shoulder.
Andrus has played at least 145 games in each of his six Rangers seasons. However, he has yet to translate the promise he showed in helping Texas win the AL pennant in 2010 and 2011 into becoming a star-level player.
He was said to show up overweight last year and that negatively impacted his season. Andrus hit .263 with a .647 OPS in 2014 and, while he stole 27 bases, his 15 caught stealings led the AL. He was 42 out of 50 in 2013.
Starlin Castro is a better bargain for the Yankees. He is signed through 2019 for only $44 million (with a $16 million team option in 2020). Castro has a 9.4 career WAR (2.0 WAR in 2015). I have speculated for more than a year that Castro to the Yankees would make sense. The problem is the Yankees don't have much major league ready prospects that the Cubs could want (with the exception of AA catcher Gary Sanchez, #2 ranked prospect). But Yankee cash can smooth out any transaction.
A story like this one in the Post will start to kick the tires on other clubs to start discussing potential deals with the Yankees. And other teams looking for a shortstop will start to contact the Cubs, who have four major league ready middle infielders (Castro, Baez, Alcantara and Russell) ready for action. I expect one of these four to be traded in 2015, most likely for starting pitching.
One shortstop who at least has the Yankees intrigued as they rev up their efforts to find Derek Jeter’s successor is Texas’ Elvis Andrus.
The Yankees would have to feel Andrus is a buy-low candidate whose downturn on both sides of the ball in 2014 was reversible and that, at 26, his best years are ahead of him.
Andrus’ eight-year, $120 million extension does not even begin until next season and runs through at least 2022. Texas would love to unload that deal as it searches this market for starting pitching. The Rangers can go inexpensive in the middle infield with some combination of Rougned Odor, Jurickson Profar and Luis Sardinas. However, they would be more comfortable doing that if they knew for sure Profar was going to be healthy moving forward after missing all of 2014 after tearing (then re-tearing) a muscle in his shoulder.
Andrus has played at least 145 games in each of his six Rangers seasons. However, he has yet to translate the promise he showed in helping Texas win the AL pennant in 2010 and 2011 into becoming a star-level player.
He was said to show up overweight last year and that negatively impacted his season. Andrus hit .263 with a .647 OPS in 2014 and, while he stole 27 bases, his 15 caught stealings led the AL. He was 42 out of 50 in 2013.
Starlin Castro is a better bargain for the Yankees. He is signed through 2019 for only $44 million (with a $16 million team option in 2020). Castro has a 9.4 career WAR (2.0 WAR in 2015). I have speculated for more than a year that Castro to the Yankees would make sense. The problem is the Yankees don't have much major league ready prospects that the Cubs could want (with the exception of AA catcher Gary Sanchez, #2 ranked prospect). But Yankee cash can smooth out any transaction.
A story like this one in the Post will start to kick the tires on other clubs to start discussing potential deals with the Yankees. And other teams looking for a shortstop will start to contact the Cubs, who have four major league ready middle infielders (Castro, Baez, Alcantara and Russell) ready for action. I expect one of these four to be traded in 2015, most likely for starting pitching.
November 12, 2014
TEAMS IN PLAY
This off-season, there have been a few clear signals from teams on the verge of being highly competitive.
The Angels and Phillies have strongly indicated that they will be sitting out this free agent market. They do not want to add to existing high payrolls. In fact, they would like to shed some high cost talent. The Phillies are willing to trade anyone on their roster, including Cole Hammels, for the right deal (at least three top prospects). The Dodgers also seem to want to pare back their excess outfield talent under new team President Friedman.
The Mariners, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers appear poised to make a run at bolstering their teams. The Rangers have a protected top draft pick so they could have their cake and it eat it to by signing a top free agent (who refused a qualifying offer). Likewise, the Tigers will get at least one supplemental first round pick for losing a quality free agent to another team (Max Scherzer). The Yankees have been playing possum this off-season, which means that they will make a run at the top guys. The Red Sox always seem to be circling for an acquisition.
The national media is convinced the Cubs will make a splash, but I don't think so. The Cubs are still filling the kiddy pool with water.
The Mariners have been spending money in recent years, but have not come to critical mass. The rumor is that the team will go after Hanley Ramirez and Victor Martinez, two older players, which means that 2015 projects to an "all in" season for Seattle. Detroit is in a similar position: so close, yet so far away from that desperate championship. If the Tigers lose Martinez and Scherzer, then they will have to replace a DH and SP of like quality (David Price may be part of that answer).
If one looks for a dark horse team to fly under the radar and pick up a "name" this off-season, it could be the Cardinals. With SP Kyle Lohse being paid only $500,000 at the end of a front loaded contract, the Redbirds actually have his "real value" plus another SP budget slot to pay a top tier FA $20 million plus.
The Angels and Phillies have strongly indicated that they will be sitting out this free agent market. They do not want to add to existing high payrolls. In fact, they would like to shed some high cost talent. The Phillies are willing to trade anyone on their roster, including Cole Hammels, for the right deal (at least three top prospects). The Dodgers also seem to want to pare back their excess outfield talent under new team President Friedman.
The Mariners, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers appear poised to make a run at bolstering their teams. The Rangers have a protected top draft pick so they could have their cake and it eat it to by signing a top free agent (who refused a qualifying offer). Likewise, the Tigers will get at least one supplemental first round pick for losing a quality free agent to another team (Max Scherzer). The Yankees have been playing possum this off-season, which means that they will make a run at the top guys. The Red Sox always seem to be circling for an acquisition.
The national media is convinced the Cubs will make a splash, but I don't think so. The Cubs are still filling the kiddy pool with water.
The Mariners have been spending money in recent years, but have not come to critical mass. The rumor is that the team will go after Hanley Ramirez and Victor Martinez, two older players, which means that 2015 projects to an "all in" season for Seattle. Detroit is in a similar position: so close, yet so far away from that desperate championship. If the Tigers lose Martinez and Scherzer, then they will have to replace a DH and SP of like quality (David Price may be part of that answer).
If one looks for a dark horse team to fly under the radar and pick up a "name" this off-season, it could be the Cardinals. With SP Kyle Lohse being paid only $500,000 at the end of a front loaded contract, the Redbirds actually have his "real value" plus another SP budget slot to pay a top tier FA $20 million plus.
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