July 11, 2017

BREAK DOWN

Two games under .500. Five and one-half games behind the NL Central leader.
The Milwaukee Brewers would have been thrilled with that position prior to the All-Star game.

But it is the Cubs that are in that unexpected position, looking up at the rebuilding Brewers.

It has been a rocky 2017 campaign for the Cubs. The team has only one 5 game win streak and one 4 game win streak. The team has one 5 game losing streak and two 4 game losing streaks.

The vaulted Cub defense from 2016 has been terrible. The Cubs are 14th in the NL in errors and 13th in the league in fielding percentage.

The offense has not been exempt from criticism.

Runs Scored: 399/ 11th in NL
Hits: 706/14th
HR: 117/6th
BA: .239/14th
SB: 26/14th

The pitching numbers show a sad tale as well.

ERA: 4.10/5th in NL
CG: 1/6th
SHO: 0/10th
Runs Allowed: 399/5th
Earned Runs Allowed: 358/4th
Home Runs Allowed: 105/7th
Strikeouts: 763/4th
Walks: 309/10th

The cringe worthy stat is 1st Inning starting pitching (from ESPN):

Pitcher            2017 ERA             2016 ERA
Lackey             6.35                          4.01
Lester               7.85                          3.76
Arrieta              6.50                          2.52
Anderson         21.94                         4.30
Hendricks         5.73                          3.72
Butler               4.09                           8.04
Montgomery    7.11                           4.37

Rotation:          7.34                           3.85


A few years ago, the White Sox had a similar problem with a few of their starting pitchers. Steve Stone remarked that a rough first inning to him meant that the pitcher did not throw enough warm-up pitches prior to the game. He was not in game condition. The first inning was really the last stages of a normal warm up routine. Some pitchers coming off injury or protecting from injury tend to cut back on warm up tosses. The Cubs went into spring training with the direct order not to overwork their starting pitchers who threw into November. But that order may have carried over into the regular season.

A couple of Cubs starters also remarked that there was going to be an adjustment to the pregame rituals since the bullpen was no longer on Wrigley Field. Pitchers said they used to get positive energy from the fans in the stands when they warmed up. But now that they are under the bleachers, they do not get the crowd noise, the atmosphere of the pregame or the exact weather conditions on the field.

The Cubs have broken down in all phases of the game: hitting, pitching and fielding.

The excuses have to be laid to rest this late in the season:

The team is still young; they will get better. Except, there is no historical evidence that the young players hitting below .230 are going to hit .300 when they have never hit that high in the major league careers. There is something to the sophomore slump in the majors because the other teams find weaknesses in their opponents, especially batters.

Once the summer heats up, so will the bats. This is a false myth. In Chicago, it has been above average in temperature since May. The Cub bats have been consistently mediocre all season, especially with runners in scoring position.

The NL Central is weak so the Cubs can easily come back to win it. No one believed the Brewers were contenders but they have been on top for most of the season. They believe they can win it. Their make-up contest blow-out against the Cubs was a statement game. The team will get back its best starting pitcher, Chase Anderson, from his second oblique injury. Rumors have it that the Brewers could trade for Jose Quintana which would solidify their rotation for a stretch run. In addition, the Pirates came to town before the break and beat up the Cubs. They may have turned their season around with a revived Andrew McCutheon.

The Cubs won it last year; they know what to do to win it this year. This assumes that the 2017 Cubs are the same as the 2016 team. The current Cubs are missing the leadership of David Ross (especially when it comes to talking to the starting pitchers). The team is also missing its lead off hitter in Dexter Fowler. As a carryover from Game 7, the team may have stopped listening to sugar-coated hipness of Joe Maddon's happy team routine. The Cubs accomplished a serious goal last season in winning the World Series. This year, the Cubs do not have the same type of goal or a sense of urgency to contend.

More die-hard fans feel that the 2017 Cubs will be a major disappointment and they may end the season a below .500 club. It will really depend on whether the Cubs can start off hot after the All-Star game.