UNWATCHABLE

 The summer of 2021 was the season of the unwatchable Cubs.

A bad team made of mostly old, journeyman AAA players. There has been no indication that will change in the off-season. David Ross, when asked about his 2022 starting rotation, could only say Hendricks and Mills.

Another indictment of the Cubs farm system for not developing one solid starter during the Theo era. But the problem is that Hendricks has been pitching like a #3 and Mills a #5 starter. An ace #1 starter is a pitcher who can give you a complete game. A #2 pitcher gets you into the 8th on a regular basis. A #3 starter gets you 7 innings; #4 6 innings and #5 through five. But Cub starters are barely reaching five innings pitched on a consistent basis. The young arms of Alzolay, Thompson and Steele seem like middle relievers at best (as Steve Stone said "all relievers are failed starters.")

The 2021 Cubs tried to sell nostalgia to the fans with the return of Arrieta but that was a bust from the get-go. The "lovable losers" train no longer runs after the Cubs won the championship. Fans expected more from their team for the prices they are currently paying. 

Are the Cubs going to spend big money for two free agent starters when they let Darvish go for next to nothing?

A closer by committee does solidify a modern pitching staff. Except for Heuer in the Sox trade, the rest of the arms are pretty much replacement level. The bullpen will be blown up again to be filled with new journeymen arms.

2022 is the last year of Ross' contract. I wonder if he will extend himself to shepherd a low budget rebuild. Or will he chance it that Theo will take a job with the imploding Mets franchise? 

You can tell how screwed up the franchise is when you cannot even tell who are the daily TV and radio broadcasters. The revolving door of people in the booth is symbolic of the turn style of marginal talent on the field.

STOP THE NONSENSE

 MLB is trying to right the sinking ship of offense by experimenting with more rule changes.  We know Big Data is causing hitters to become free swingers and not contact hitters. But constant rule changes to try to increase scoring is bad for baseball.

Major League Baseball announced that it will experiment with a pair of new rules during the 2021 Atlantic League season: a “double-hook” implementation of the designated hitter and moving the pitching rubber back one foot. MLB and the Atlantic League began a partnership back in 2019 wherein the latter would serve as a testing ground for rule changes and pace-of-play alterations.

The “double-hook” designated hitter rule will be in place for the entirety of the 2021 Atlantic League season. Under the new rule, a team will lose its designated hitter once the starting pitcher is pulled from the game. From that point forth, the team will need to either deploy a pinch-hitter or allow a relief pitcher to bat in what was the designated hitter’s place.

The goal of the rule, per the league, is to “incentivize teams to leave their starting pitchers in longer, increase the value of starters who can work deeper into games and increase the strategic element in the late innings of a game.”

Turning to the pitching rubber experiment, that change will only be implemented in the second half of the Atlantic League season. (The first-half data will then be compared to second-half data as a direct point of comparison.) MLB’s release notes that the average fastball velocity has risen from 91.6 mph in 2010 to 93.3 mph in 2021. The league posits that a hitter’s reaction time on a 93.3 mph pitch thrown from 61 feet, six inches is approximately the same as the reaction time on a 91.6 mph pitch thrown from 60 feet, six inches.

Trying to use statistics to prove your case will not work here. These rule changes will only HURT pitchers. Pitchers moving back a foot will throw off all the mechanics and location control they have learned their entire careers. Moving back the rubber will mean some pitchers will throw harder in order to keep their velocity level at the plate. That will lead to more arm and shoulder injuries. 

The double-hook DH rule is worse than the regular DH rule. You penalize the team for taking out a starting pitcher, but you are really penalizing a pitcher by keeping him on the mound longer than he can physically go. Again, if a pitcher is struggling and needs to be pulled but you lose a valuable bat in the process, what is a manager to do? Keep a pitcher out their to hurt themselves mentally or physically? Besides, the whole DH rule was to stop pitchers getting hurt at the plate (HBP) or running the bases. Now, you want to have those issues thrown at relief pitchers? And where is a manager to get all those pinch hitters when rosters are so tight?

And these rule changes do nothing to improve the game. Like the runner on second in extra innings, it is more a distraction than valid solution. If you want offense, team should look at the Dodgers who are tearing up the league. If you want offense, teach your hitters how to hit instead of swinging at the fences in a "home run or bust" mentality. Tell your players that a strike out is a bad thing that can get you benched instead of being "just another out." 

 

THE REASONS

 It finally hit me. The reasons why the game of baseball is in decline.

Teams have special coaches, labs, and stat sheets on each player. Baseball has attempted to squeeze the game into a series of numbers.

Teams can use methods to strengthen a pitcher's arm, to increase the velocity of pitches and to increase the amount of spin on the ball. But they do not teach how to pitch at the pro level.

Teams can measure bat speed, exit velocity and launch angles for hitters. But they do not teach how to make contact, how to hit in situations or how to advance runners. 

Teams have done little to increase techniques in fielding. Teams have given up on teaching base running skills. Those are lost skill sets.

Baseball is a rare sport where the defense starts the action of each play. One would think it would be an advantage to improve your defense in order to win more games. 

The analytical side of baseball is driving the sport towards extinction. Players get paid because of their stats. Teams allegedly win because they use stats, the probabilities, on each play. Teams use the shift because of the stats of a hitter's spray chart. And batters keep grounding into the shift because they refuse to hit to the opposite field because their stats say power is in the pull field.

Early this season, the Cubs bemoaned the fact that a team of good hitters could not string two hits in a row. The experts and talking heads were at a loss on why. The reason is simple: the Cubs lack any .300 hitters. Contact hitters who can get on base. To put pressure on the opposing pitcher and defense. The Cubs have had no .300 hitter in the regular line up for years. It is a glaring hole in the line up but in the analytical world, batting average is a relic from the past. Strike outs are not cursed anymore because home runs are viewed as the most efficient scoring device. So the Cubs have a philosophy of home run swing or bust. And bust it is most of the time. 

Baseball is an ebb of flow of action and pauses. The pauses give fans an opportunity to digest the situation, the strategy and react. The drama, the contact of the bat to the ball, happens in a blink of an eye, as players scatter around the field in a century old ballet of roles. But the tenor of the sport now mirrors a video game, a series of computer coded numbers and very few different outcomes.

Baseball has always been about numbers. Sacred numbers. But numbers are leading it to its downfall.

THE URGENCY OF HURLING

 New team President Jed Hoyer spoke to NBC Chicago Sports. 

“When you talk about urgency of this team, and it’s been stated,” team president Hoyer said, referencing a roster full of players on the one-year contracts. “We need to play well out of the gate. That doesn’t mean we have to play well the first two weeks. But when you think about the first half of the season, we need to put ourselves in position to be a buyer, to be a team that’s competing. 

"That’s probably a slightly different feeling than you might have had two or three years ago when all these guys are [are much further from free agency],” said Hoyer, who’s optimistic he’ll have a lot of payroll flexibility in July, depending on attendance allowances as COVID-19 restrictions presumably are lifted gradually into the summer. 

There is no way around the Truth: this is the last season for "The Core," the foundation players who won the championship. It really is the last gasp for the Cubs to try to win another championship before sinking in the total rebuild muck.

But this talk makes some fans hurl. The Yu Darvish trade was an early White Flag deal in which the Cubs could never recover. Marquee not showing live Cub spring training games is a cheap farce in a year public relations is needed to bring back fans to baseball.

The urgency to sign pitchers like Shelby Miller and Jake Arrieta past their primes is an indication of the one-and-done front office mentality. The starting rotation is a mess. The bullpen is also a mess. The farm system is a disaster. 

The only bright side is that most of the NL Central had their own talent fire sales due to financial pressures from 2020. Only the Cardinals made a splash to become the front runner in a weak division. The Cubs 2021 plan is hoping other teams stumble and their old veterans somehow find some magic to outperform expectations. Expectations that are very low.

With as many as 18 players on the Cubs’ projected 26-man Opening Day roster are players expected to be in walk years (either free agents at the end of the year or facing club-option decisions for 2022), the do-or-die mentality seems to be not there. There is such little local media coverage one wonders if the pandemic has sapped all interest in the team.

One can see now why Theo Epstein bailed on his last contract year to not oversee this pending dumpster fire. With ownership claiming biblical losses (of their own bad business practices), the Cubs are no longer the lovable losers but a failed dynasty. The team lacks an identity. It also lacks talent. It woefully lacks depth. 2021 is shaping up as a season to forget before it starts.

ANOTHER LISTLESS SPRING

 The Cubs start another season with very little competition for roster spots.

The Cubs went into the winter hibernation in early fire sale mode. The Yu Darvish salary dump and the owners cry of "biblical losses" due to the pandemic were not greatly received by Cub fans. The Atlanta Braves, the only publicly held team, reported a 2020 operating loss of $54 million.  The league claims $2.8 billion in losses (if Braves are average team, the league claim is double). 

A round of journeymen signings leads the Cubs who are really on the last year of the championship core window (which has effectively closed). Bringing back Jake Arrieta after two below average years is not a solution to a rotation that lost 4/5ths of last year's opening day starters. 

Barring any injury, this appears to be your Opening Day roster:

Starting Rotation: Hendricks, Davies, Arrieta, Mills, Williams

Catchers: Contreras, Romine

Infielders: Rizzo (1b), Hoerner (2b/ss), Bote (2b/3b), Baex (ss), Bryant (3b)

Outfielders: Happ, Heyward, Pederson, Marisnick

Bullpen: Kimbrel (closer), Workman, Winkler, Ryan, Wick, Wieck, Chafin, Tempera, Alzolay

Not a dominating team with any real depth.

The bullpen is basically last year's hit and miss crew. Kimbrel is still the closer by default since Jeffries left for free agency. Out of the mix are two of last year's spot starters: Alzolay and Rea.

The only bright spot is that only the Cardinals seemed to have attempted to improve their roster with the Arenaldo trade. The rest of the division have been salary cutting veterans. But it will be another long 2020 type season as the pandemic starts its fourth wave right around Opening Day.

MORE CHANGES

It is official: the minor and Mexican leagues have canceled their 2020 seasons.

If there will be pro ball, it will be MLB.

It is still a big "if."

With a 60 man roster for a 60 game season, general managers and field skippers are going into a new frontier. It is possible that a .500 team will make the playoffs. It is also possible that a 5 game losing streak could be a death sentence.

A few managers have already decided that they will do 6 or 7 man rotations. However, the starting pitchers may not be able to give consistent 6 IP/ start (this was last year's trend.) Middle relievers may be the most valuable players on the roster.

With every pitcher having to throw to at least 3 batters, the concept of an "opener" is still in play, but probably will not be used based on the lack of starters who can throw deep into a game.

However, as we discussed in the past, it may be time to think about pitching staffs as "pods," squads of pitchers assigned to navigate a game. The opening day roster is 30 players so most teams will have at least 15 pitchers available. In game 1, pitchers A, B, C and D are assigned to throw at least 7 innings. Players X and Y are designated "game closers" for 8th and 9th inning, if available. In game 2, pitchers E, F, G, and H have the same 7 IP assignment. In game 3, pitchers I, J, K and L are assigned 7 IP. Pitcher Z (the 15th man) is the "stopper," who can come in any inning to stop an opponent's rally. It is also noteworthy that MLB dropped the field player's ability to pitch in games so in blow out games, your reserve outfielder can pitch.

The "pod" system is probably ideal for a staff of all middle relievers and closers. But since MLB's restart is going to be less than a spring training, one should look at the beginning of the real season as an extended exhibition schedule.

The use of the DH will be problematic for NL teams. Frank Thomas said it took him a long time to adjust being a DH (almost an entire year.) When you play in the field, you have the rhythm of the game. Your mind is constantly in game focus. If you are a DH, you are on the bench - - - separated from "the action." Every at bat is like "pinch hitting." Rarely do pinch hitters put up MVP numbers.

Another change will be MLB coverage. Media reporters to access to managers and players will be non-existent. Radio and TV announcers may not even travel with the team. Social distancing means no locker room interviews or on-field celebrations. With no fans in the stands, telecasts will be either silent, erie or artificially enhanced by sound engineers.

But the biggest change could happen in 2021. If owners think they can use a 60 man roster for an entire season, the current MiLB development leagues could evaporate. MLB wanted this year to eliminate 42 team affiliates. Instead, it got them all. Minor league owners now see 19 months without a dime of revenue (95% is based on home game fan attendance.) Teams can save millions in minor league agreements if they have a 30 man roster and a 30 man taxi squad.

It would mean that there would be thousands of minor league free agents without a club contract. It would also mean that the minor league system would be all independent leagues without MLB support. It would make college players stay longer in school in order to polished before being drafted by a team. MLB could see colleges as development leagues like the NFL does.

The final great change from this pandemic season is the sudden backbone of the union. It did not back down from its positions. It is taking hard line stances against the owners as a prelude to the next CBA in 2021-22.

NEW PITCHING STAFFS

As baseballs are flying out of ball parks at record numbers, the whole concept of a pitching staff is slowly beginning to change.

Starters are no longer geared toward pitching to contact or going complete games. It is now a rarity that a starter goes past 7 innings.  The new normal is 5 innings. This puts a huge strain on the bullpen, which is now bloated to at least 9 relievers.

Some managers are using "bullpen" days to get through series. The relief corps pitch the entire game, usually 2 or 3 innings for long relievers and then the set up men and closer.  A few managers have decided to start a tough reliever to get through the top of the order, then bring in their normal starter in the second inning. This avoids seeing the opponent's top three hitters three times in a game (as stats show a dramatic fall off in pitching performance the third time through the line up card).

The need for bullpen arms absorbing more innings per season is not lost on GMs (or player agents). Middle relievers or swingmen have had steady salary increases in free agency because teams now find Andrew Miller type relievers golden (they can be middle inning "stoppers," long relievers or even closers).

There are still several stud "ace" starters in the major leagues. But there are turning into baseball's dinosaurs: high salaries and less performance.

The real push for change in starting pitching is going to be economic.

The Cubs example is telling: the team was squeezed by an business mandate not to go over the luxury cap of $206 million. The five starters are being paid $85.5 million for 2019. That is 41.5% of the lux cap space. The 9 relievers in the bullpen are being paid $55.6 million. That is 27.2 % of the lux cap space. In total, pitching at the start of the season took up $141.1 million (68.7%) of payroll budget. Or an average of $10.1 million/pitcher.

That only leaves $64.9 million to be distributed to 11 position players (for an average of $5.9 million per player.) This is why the Cubs could not make any major off-season moves for position bats because it is hard to find very good every day players for $6 million/year. Veteran bench players get that kind of money.

The budget dollars will be allocated away from pitching toward hitting if traditional starter roles are going to be decreased in the near future. (We have discussed the concept of pitching pods in the past; a system where 3 pitchers are grouped together to pitch a game; 4 pods equal 12 pitchers - - - with two additional relievers in reserve. It is a modified bullpen game but with designated pitching squads instead of a traditional rotation.)  A pitching staff of relievers may cost $6 million/arm or $84 million, which is still less than the Cubs opening rotation cost of $85.5 million. Then you almost have double the amount to spend on position players.

Will this work? We will not know until it is tried and tested in a real season(s).

MID SEASON ADJUSTMENTS

It is hard to miss a significant change in major league pitching since the All-Star break.

MLB is still on pace to hit a record number of home runs (with the modified baseball still being denied by the commissioner). Pitchers, specifically starters in the early innings, were getting crushed by the home run ball. Part of the issue was that batters were taking more pitches to work favorable counts. Part of the issue was that umpires were calling tight strike zones which frustrated many pitchers to the point of losing control, getting into early high pitch count/leveraged situations.

Pitchers tried to combat these issues with using their change-up as their "out" pitch. It worked for a while until many sluggers decided to wait (and feast) on the change. Now, pitchers were suddenly throwing batting practice to good hitters. In retaliation, pitchers tried to pitch "old school" inside. This has resulted in many hit batters and fights. The Pirates took it too far in headhunting the Reds which resulted in an epic brawl and many suspensions.

Recently, pitchers have gotten a break. Umpires are now calling the high strike. Batters have been stat analyzed to death on launch angle, exit velocity, contact zones and count management to be able to predict pitches below the waist that can get the right attack angle to hit home runs. Batters are having a hard time adjusting to the high fastball which for most of the season was called a ball. (Traditionalists believe the strike zone is from the jersey letters to the knees. Umpires each call a different strike zone each game; most having it at lower rib cage to knees, plus or minus a few inches outside the plate corner.)

The high strike call is the pitcher's best friend. Batters have a hard time getting launch angle contact with the high strike since they have conditioned themselves to put the bat angle below their hands through the zone. Even with contact with high fastballs, they are usually spoiled or popped up.

For this evolution in balls and strikes to occur, two independent things had to converge: the umpires deciding to call a high strike and pitchers willing to risk throwing high strikes in leveraged situations.

OPENERS & CLOSERS

There is an earthquake type shift in front offices. The glory days of "ace" starting pitchers are going to start to fade . . .  fast. Just like the NFL has caused the running back position to become a generic commodity in its pass-happy offenses, baseball is soon going to put less emphasis on starting rotations to win games.

The trend has been accelerating this year. A report indicated that the amount of innings pitched by MLB starters is down 37 percent. It means that starters are pitching more than 2 innings less than they did a decade ago. It is apparent when you watch games. It is now a rarity for a starter to pitch into the 7th inning. A generation ago, starters all took the mound with the one goal of tossing a complete game. Today, starters are content with finishing just 5 innings.

Teams are constructing their bullpens not as emergency help for faltering starters but as a machine to win games. During Kansas City's World Series runs, it developed a killer bullpen of three dominant, "shut down" arms in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. If the Royals were winning after 6, the game was over. The emphasis began to shift to the back three or four innings and not the front five.

Stats gurus have allegedly found that starting pitchers get hammered more when a batter sees them for the third time during a game. The logic is that the batter has now seen all the pitches of the starter so he can better anticipate what he will see. Also, the stat men found that the key innings in a game for a starter are the 2nd to 7th. Therefore, the Padres developed the concept of an "opener," a relief pitcher who would throw the first inning then give way to the starting pitcher. That means the starter will see the top of the opponent's order one less time during the game. This is how odd pitching metrics have gotten.

Closers used to be just mop up guys. Now, they are the highest paid bullpen pieces because for some mental reason, not every relief pitcher can get the last three outs in a game. Closers typically have one lights-out pitch; a 100 mph fastball, or a devastating fork ball. They are strike out pitchers. Teams now set up their bullpens just to get to the closer.

With starters only covering 5 innings, they are really no different than traditional "long" relievers who can spot start or throw 3 innings in a game. Long relievers are not paid as well as starters or closers. But in the new pitching playbook, they may become even more valuable.

Some teams without a decent fifth starter will result to having a "bullpen" day where long relievers will try to get 6 innings in the book before turning it over to the last three bullpen arms. In the near future, all teams may employ bullpen days for every game.

Teams are already carrying 12 or 13 pitchers on the 25 man roster. That is why so many teams, especially the Cubs, try to find bench players who can play multiple positions because they have very limited substitutes. The idea of expanding the roster to 26 players does not mean an extra bat will be added to help managers. Some teams are now employing the dual role of a pitcher/position player. The Reds have a relief pitcher who also can bat well and play the outfield. It is not usual for star pitchers to be the best player on their youth, high school or college teams. And it is not usual that they used to be the best hitter and fielder at multiple positions. But they lose part of the skill set when they just concentrate on pitching.

Even colleges are now concentrating on developing relief pitchers such as closers. In the past, Steve Stone remarked that all relief pitchers were "failed" starter. College World Series teams often have designated closers. Minor league systems now quickly separate prospects into starters and relievers as it is now just as important to find closers and long relievers.

Ownership has a vested stake in this new pitching philosophy. It should cost less payroll. the age of the $20-30 million starter will be over. Relief pitchers salaries have been going up recently, but closers usually top out around fifth starter money. If a team can save half of the starters annual salary, that is pure profit to the owners.

JAKE YU

It was reported that the Cubs made the same basic offer to both Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish.
Arrieta wanted more money so he left for a disappointing free agency. Darvish signed with the Cubs with disappointing results.

How different would it be if Arrieta stayed with the Cubs? No one knows for sure.

Since leaving the Cubs, Arrieta has started 48 games, thrown 276.1 IP, giving up 107 ER, 97 BB with a 1.335 WHIP. His record is 18-17.

Since joining the Cubs, Darvish has started 24 games, thrown 137 IP, giving up 76 ER, 70 BB with a 1.365 WHIP. His record is 3-7.

Since leaving the Cubs, Arrieta's WAR is 4.1.  Darvish's Cub WAR is 0.4.

You really cannot say that Arrieta is "ten times" better than Darvish, but he had been more durable. Durable until he left his last start with elbow issues. It appears he has bone spurs which will require surgery so he will be out for an extended time period.

The rehash of this debate continues because the Cub front office continues to frustrate fans by not signing and developing starting pitching prospects. Zero. Adbert Alzolay was sent back to the minors have a weak start.

At the start of the season, many sports reporters questioned whether the age of the starting rotation would bite the Cubs. With Cole Hamels on the DL and Kyle Hendricks coming off the DL, the lack of rotation depth is clear. Spot starts by Tyler Chatwood will not cut it in the second half. Montgomery is not the same pitcher he was two years ago.

During the cross town series, Cub fans complained about the Quintana trade as Eloy Jiminez rocked a homer and Dylan Cease made his first career MLB start. Again, the Cubs made that trade because they needed to win then with a veteran arm. As the White Sox rebuild progresses,  the eventual Cubs tear down comes closer on the horizon.

ANOTHER ARM

The Cubs first round draft choice was a college starting pitcher.

MLB.com stated:

27) Cubs: Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State

This is the biggest surprise of the first round so far, as Jensen was ranked No. 99 on our ranking of the top 200 Draft prospects. There's a lack of college pitching in this Draft, however, and we may see more teams push some college arms up their Draft boards, as the Cubs appeared to here. Jensen has one of the best fastballs in the college class, usually working at 94-98 mph and maintaining his velocity into the late innings. The secondary stuff is inconsistent, as is his control, and he doesn't have a real big frame (6-foot, 180 pounds), so he could be a reliever.

It is surprising that the Cubs reached for a third round prospect in the first round. It is another small frame pitcher who projects to be a reliever.
First round arms are supposed to be starters (unless you are a dominant career closer like the White Sox Burdi) because all relievers are failed starters.

High velocity throwers are nice, but can they pitch to make outs?

The reason the Cubs picked a college pitcher: to try to fast track him to the majors. The minor league system is devoid of any immediate help for the pitching staff. Could Jensen's velocity be enough to be a late season call-up to bolster an overworked bullpen? It is doubtful. But the Cubs window for a second championship run is closing fast with the improvements in their own division rivals.

The Cubs in the Theo era have NEVER developed their own starting pitcher. The first round choice is already pegged for relief duty by scouts. 

It appears that the Cubs cannot solve their pitching problems by spending any money. Kimbrel and Keuchel are unrestricted free agents, but the Cubs are not thought to be interested in either. Ricketts has said he would not allow the Cubs to go over the luxury cap (where the Cubs payroll was on Game 1). The front office has been squeezing nickels out of dimes to supplement the roster. When the Indians gave up on Carlos Gonzalez (he was hitting .210), the Cubs picked him up for a prorated league minimum (from part of the payroll savings of not paying Zobrist who is on the restricted list). This is like trying to find lost change under the sofa cushions in order to buy a pizza.

Do not be surprised if the Cubs front load more pitchers in this year's draft because that seems to be the overriding need for the system.

TANDEM

Yu Darvish had another Yu is Darbage outing. Four innings pitched, 97 pitches, 6 walks, one run . . .  his control was awful enough to get seven strikeouts.

Montgomery came back from his injury rehab to throw five innings of winning relief.

Which leads to a problem and a solution.

Darvish cannot command his stuff. Montgomery wants to be a starter. Darvish has such a fragile mental state that Maddon has to take baby steps with him. Monty has been the good soldier since he became a Cub.

At some levels in minor league baseball, teams have a "tandem" system for starting pitchers. In a game, one starter is delegated to throw 3 or 4 innings and then another starter comes in to throw 3 or 4 innings. In theory, this is less strain on a young arm by limiting innings per start. But at the same time, it helps to build up arm strength.

There was always a question on why Montgomery's minor league rehab was to stretch him out like a starting pitcher. The Cubs have their long reliever with Chatwood. But perhaps the Cubs inability to get a real closer is making the front office think about moving Chatwood to a late inning role.

But in the Marlins game, it was shown that the combination of Darvish and Montgomery can work in a "tandem" situation. I would not be surprised that Montgomery will not be used until Darvish's next scheduled start.

QUALITY START

What is a real "quality start?"

MLB defines a quality start as:

A starting pitcher records a quality start when he pitches at least six innings and allows three earned runs or fewer. A starting pitcher has two jobs: to prevent runs and get outs. The quality start statistic helps to quantify which pitchers did a "quality" job in those two departments.

This definition of a "quality" yields an absurd result: a pitcher who allows three earned runs over six innings would have an ERA of 4.50 -- not good -- and yet he still receives a quality start. 

Bill James addressed this in his 1987 Baseball Abstract, saying the hypothetical example (a pitcher going exactly 6 innings and allowing exactly 3 runs) was extremely rare among starts recorded as quality starts, and that he doubted any pitchers had an ERA over 3.20 in their quality starts. This was later confirmed through computer analysis of all quality starts recorded from 1984 to 1991, which found that the average ERA in quality starts during that time period was 1.91.

Former pitcher Carl Erskine said "in my day, a quality start was a complete game ... you gave everybody a day's rest." This view was also echoed by Fergie Jenkins who often said that it was his job every time he took the job was to have a complete game win. If he was going against an opponent like Bob Gibson, he knew that he could only give up one or two runs tops in order to win the game.

Growing up, it was the consensus gold standard for a pitcher to have an ERA under 3.00.

To get to that level, a pitcher would have to have these types of starts in order to get the win:

5 IP 1 ER = 1.80 ERA
6 IP 2 ER = 3.00 ERA
9 IP 3 ER = 3.00 ERA

2.57 ERA for 7 IP with 2 ER, but 3.86 ERA with 3 ER.
2.25 ERA for 8 IP with 2 ER, but 3.36 ERA with 3 ER.

Therefore, a quality start should be a scaled event for starting pitchers at points of 1, 2 and 3 earned runs allowed to get under 3.00 ERA.

The oddity in this analysis plays into the rise in the bullpen managed game. A starter with 1 ER in 5 IP can be pulled for a shut down bullpen of under 2.00 ERA to get under a 3.00 ERA for the entire game. Stat men claim that starter's batting average against climbs dramatically when facing a hitter the third time in a game. Managers are not only managing the pitch count but also the number of times through the batting order.

Conclusion: a quality start should be any start that yields a 3.00 ERA or under.

BAD RULE CHANGES

Despite the increasing bad blood between the players union and owners in regard to the stagnant free agent market, MLB is pushing forward with some terrible rule changes.

CHANGES EFFECTIVE IN 2019
 
Inning breaks: Subject to discussions with broadcast partners, inning breaks will be reduced from 2:05 to 2:00 in local games and from 2:25 to 2:00 in national games. The Commissioner’s Office retains the right to further reduce the breaks to 1:55 in local and national games for the start of the 2020 season.


REACTION: Hold my beer!!!!! That is a whopping 6 minutes of alleged time saved during a game.

Trade Deadline: The waiver trade period will be eliminated. The July 31 Trade Deadline will be the only deadline. Players may still be placed and claimed on outright waivers after July 31, but trades will no longer be permitted after that date.


REACTION: A hard deadline affects all teams the same. The change in the waiver rule only helps bad teams who can make a claim of a good player trying to be sent down (when another player is activated from the DL).

All Star Game: As far as the game itself is concerned, the 10th inning -- and all subsequent innings -- of All-Star Games that go into extra innings will begin with a runner on second base.



REACTION: A horrid rule!  It FUNDAMENTALLY alters the foundation of the game: earning your way on base by a hit, a walk, a dropped third strike or catcher interference. But to put a runner in scoring position with no outs is a face slap to the origins of the game AND the poor pitcher who starts the inning in an artificial hole. This does not speed up the game because the pitcher now has to slow down and concentrate more, since the runner on second is trying to steal the signs.

Home Run Derby: Total player prize money for the Home Run Derby will be increased to $2.5 million. The winner receives $1 million.



REACTION: Who cares? It is an exhibition game.

Mound visits: The maximum number of mound visits per team will be reduced from six to five per game. MLB had instituted an initial mound-visit limitation prior to the 2018 season.


REACTION: Woo-hoo Johnny, that change saves a whopping 4 minutes in game time (2 minutes each for each team.)

CHANGES IN 2020 SEASON:
 
Active roster provisions: The roster size from Opening Day through Aug. 31 will increase from 25 to 26 (with the minimum number of active players rising from 24 to 25, and roster sizes for doubleheaders rising from 26 to 27).


REACTION: Adding another player but limiting the number of pitchers on the roster to 13 in regular season (and 14 in September) does nothing to help the players union beef on service time. Contending teams used to call up a half dozen players to help them win games down the stretch; including more relievers and specialty players like pinch runners or defensive specialists who could not make the regular season roster. Also, it is not like the 26th man is going to be a big money veteran player. More likely it will be the team's best AAAA earning the minimum salary.

The 40-man active roster for September will be eliminated. From Sept. 1 through the end of the regular season, all clubs will carry 28 players.


REACTION: Again, adding just two players does not help if a team is struggling with a tired arm pitching staff (especially with new restrictions on batters relievers must face and the inability to use position players as mop up guys). In the past, a team could bring up 15 players or their entire 40 man roster up in September. No one did, but they could. If a team does not want to pay for extra players, why penalize a team that wants or needs to do so?

Furthermore, the number of pitchers a club can carry on the active roster will be capped at a certain number, to be decided by a joint committee. (But MLB is suggesting 13 in regular season; 14 in September). To adhere to that rule, clubs will have to designate each of their players as either a pitcher or a position player prior to each player’s first day on the active roster for a given season. That designation cannot change for the remainder of the season.

Position players will not be allowed to pitch except in the following scenarios:

They are designated as a “Two-Way Player.” A player can only qualify for this designation if he accrues at least 20 Major League innings pitched and at least 20 Major League games started as a position player or designated hitter (with at least three plate appearances in each of those games) in either the current or the prior season.

Extra innings.
In any game in which his team is losing or winning by more than six runs when he enters as a pitcher.


REACTION: I guess this is the Otani Rule, where clubs will have to scout Japan to find the next SP-OF star. This anal retentive rule about telling the world if you are a position player or pitcher is stupid. They are all BASEBALL PLAYERS. As kids, we played all the positions depending on the circumstances. I can see dumb unintended consequences such as a manager pulling his pitcher and place him in the outfield for a reliever (which is still fine), then have the reliever get an out then switch with the original pitcher (because who says a reliever has to pitch 3 "consecutive" batters, see below). Let the managers manage for gosh sakes.

Three-batter minimum for pitchers: Rule 5.10(g) will be amended to require that starting pitchers and relief pitchers must pitch to either a minimum of three batters or to the end of a half-inning, with exceptions for incapacitating injury or illness. This will effectively end the so-called “LOOGY” (left-handed one-out guy) and other specialist roles in which pitchers are brought in for one very specific matchup.

REACTION: Another terrible rule because it destroys in-game strategy. The rule is another feeble attempt to speed up play, but it will not do it because the new rule forces a manager to leave a starter in longer. A struggling starter takes more time between pitches. A reliever is on a shorter pitch count than a starter, so instead of throwing a dozen pitches in consecutive days, a reliever can be used up after one appearance. That creates more wear and tear on pitchers . . . equates to more injuries and expensive DL time.

Injured list: The minimum time a player spends on the injured list will be increased back to 15 days from 10, and the minimum assignment period of pitchers who are optionally assigned to the minors will increase from 10 days to 15. MLB had reduced the minimum injured list period to 10 days prior to the 2017 season to reduce the incentive for teams to play shorthanded or for players having to play at less than full strength. However, teams manipulated the rule change to rotate relievers on and off their active rosters, thereby maintaining a full stash of rested arms, which resulted in more pitching changes.


REACTION: Teams were trying to PUT THE BEST PRODUCT on the field. Now, they are penalized for using their full 40 man roster? If MLB wants more action by having tired, injured and bad players on the field, then let the batters hit off tees and run around the bases like little kids.

None of these rule changes help the game. It is trying to hack a quality video game. 

If you really want to speed up play of the game, do not allow batters to leave the batter's box after the first pitch (except if they are knocked down or a foreign object gets into their eyes). A batter takes 10 seconds between pitches to re-set his gloves and armor. In a 300 pitch game, that is 50 minutes of dead air. Once a batter is in the box, the ball remains live. If he steps out, the pitcher can throw home for a ball or strike. Remember, current rules allow the umpire not the player to call time out. Umpires can speed up the game by not giving batters unlimited time outs to step out of the box. In fact, quick pitchers like Mark Buerhle got the game into a fast rhythm that home plate umpires liked (and subliminally helped him with calls).

THE BANE OF THE CUBS

The Great Failure of Team Theo is the lack of development of one starting pitcher.

The Tribune's Mark Gonzalez finds that this is a troublesome development, especially when Theo's Plan B, buy pitching, has hit a fiscal brick wall. The Cubs traded one of the few pitching prospects, Dylan Cease, to the White Sox (with star OF prospect Eloy Jimenez) for Jose Quintana, a quality starter for a team in the position to win now.

Cease was still in low Class A at the time — two full seasons after returning from surgery.

The Cubs have been open about their failure to develop a deep pool of homegrown pitchers despite an abundance of candidates, and they have vowed to push those pitchers harder than in the past.

“We have to re-evaluate what we’ve been doing because it hasn’t been working,” Jason McLeod, the Cubs’ senior vice president of scouting and player development, said last month at the Cubs Convention. “It’s really that — looking at ourselves and looking at some of the things we can do to change that.”

Given the age and cost of their projected 2019 rotation, the Cubs have an urgent need to develop young starting pitchers. Cole Hamels (age 35), John Lester (35) and  Yu Darvish (32) will earn $62.5 million in base salaries, with Hamels scheduled to be a free agent after this season and Lester after 2020 unless he meets certain innings benchmarks.

Cease, one of seven pitchers selected by the Cubs in the first 10 rounds of the 2014 draft, isn’t the only pitching prospect the Cubs have traded for veteran help. They dealt 2013 10th-round pick Zack Godley to land catcher Miguel Montero in 2014. And they traded 2012 supplemental first-round pick Paul Blackburn in a deal for Mike Montgomery in 2016. The result has been a reliance on the free-agent and trade markets to fill out their rotation at a high cost. None of those pitchers have set the league on fire.

We have expressed frustration in the past as half of the draft classes were used on pitching prospects.
The irony is that the Cubs scouting department and minor league coaches are good at drafting and signing hitters as the roster is full of home grown talent. The best prospects are still in Class A, a long way from showing any major league potential.

Some teams seem to have a higher level of competence than others. The White Sox have a ton of quality starting pitchers in their minor league system. Their problem is that they cannot draft and develop hitters (especially under the Kenny Williams GM days).

The only way the Cubs can change this major sink hole is to hire the best pitching development coordinators from a proven major league organization. But that is easier said than done.

TINKERING FOR OFFENSE

One of the reasons teams now go less on starting rotations to more workload on bullpens is the disabled list. Yahoo Sports:

One of the changes brought forth by the 2016 Collective Bargaining Agreement was the reduction of the minimum disabled list stay from 15 days to ten days. At the time this seemed like a win-win. If they only faced being out ten days rather than 15, players would be under less pressure to play through an injury. Likewise, teams would be less likely to play shorthanded while injuries were assessed.

Teams began to use the DL as a means of cycling pitchers on and off the roster, allowing them to bring in fresh arms with greater frequency. The result: a significant increase in the amount of players used, particularly relief pitchers. Bullpenning strategies that have developed over the past couple of years have been greatly aided by a shorter DL stay. Such strategies, in turn, have contributed to a reduction in offense.

The Associated Press reports Major League Baseball has proposed going back to a 15-day disabled list and increasing the time optioned players usually must spend in the minor leagues, a person familiar with the negotiations tells The Associated Press, moves aimed at reducing the use of relief pitchers and reviving offense.

This bargained for operational rule does get more players on active major league rosters (with prorate MLB pay and benefits) so the union must like the 10 day DL. But perhaps the owners have found that adding players to payrolls (with benefits count toward the luxury cap) for the sole purpose of extending the 25 man roster to a turn style 30 man team is not worth the cost.  

MLB does want offense. The home run derby days during the Steroid Era helped keep baseball from having serious financial issues. If the game is deemed "boring" for lack of scoring, then casual fans will swipe their streaming device to find some other form of entertainment.

GAME CHANGER

Justin Verlander spoke to the media about the scandal of the Astros "spying" on their opponent's dugout. He said the company line about the spy was really trying to see if the Red Sox were cheating.

But he went on to say something about sign stealing and speeding up pace of play. Yahoo Sports quotes the Astro ace from his Thursday press conference:

Given that cameras are everywhere, do you have any ideas how to make the sign stealing stuff go away, whether it’s wireless headsets, the communication —

It’s a good question. You know, honestly, I think something that came up for me in talking about pace of game might also help, which is, like you said, some wireless — you see in the NFL with the quarterback, a way to converse between pitcher and catcher and honestly between manager and catcher. I thought — I brought this issue to MLB last year and thought that for pace of game that could probably save 20 minutes a game.
You think of all the signs everybody’s going through — between pitcher/catcher, manager/catcher, especially when a guy gets on second base, I mean the game comes to a halt when that happens because of all the technology and we know that you need to be aware of it.

But I think that can also help. It’s not going to help pitch tipping, but I think it will help a lot with the sign stuff. And I think — I mean, I think this is a lot to do about nothing. I think it’s more peace of mind for the pitchers. Like I said, especially in the playoffs, you don’t want there to be any lingering doubt of anything. You want the only reason you get beat to be because you got beat. You don’t want to have to think it’s something else. That’s why you’re seeing all these advanced signs.

Yahoo Sports calculated that the wireless signal calling could speed up the average game by 10 minutes.

But this discussion does not really address the REAL problem. The real problem is that managers and coaches are trying to micromanage the game into a video realm. In the past, the pitcher and catcher had their own "books" on how to get players out. They would review their pitching strategy for the entire game. The catcher would not look to the dugout before each pitch. He would put down the sign and the pitcher, the ultimate one in control of the situation, would agree or shake off the sign. A pitcher knows what is working that day; he knows how he feels. He should have the baseball IQ to pitch to the situation.  

The NFL having an offensive coordinator calling every play through a headset actually turns the game into a battle of sideline guys. The view from the sideline is not the same from that behind center. The QB is the one who sees the flow of the defense; he can see the matchups at the line of scrimmage. But he is told what to do. He is not supposed to audible. He calls the play and has to get through his check downs quickly before being hit by a defender. 

In the past, the quarterback called the plays. Peyton Manning was the last traditional QB in the game. He called all the plays because he was a "coach" on the field. He understood defenses. He understood his players strengths and weaknesses. He could game plan and adapt on the fly. That is why he was a great, winning QB. 

If you want to speed up the game AND bring it back to its roots, the pitcher (like an old school QB) should call his own pitches, take command of his own performance and own his own accountability. That would be a real game changer.

PHILOSOPHY OF NEW STATS

Baseball core principles are changing as advanced stats become the norm.

Batting averages, the key stat in a hitter's success, are now downplayed or discarded in favor of OBP or OPS. The league is now flooded with .230 hitters with high strike out rates because power stats are more "valuable" than a single or a single out (strikeout). If a lineup is filled with .230 hitters, it is more prone to long batting slumps. In 2018, the Cubs found that out the hard way by scoring one or fewer runs in 41 games.

No one is trying to find a traditional lead off hitter. A person who hits for high average, can work a walk, and steal a base with ease. The reason is that stat men believe a steal is a risky and worthless strategy. Teams no longer think on ways to "manufacture" a run when the trend is still the 3- run HR or bust mentality.

There are so many .230 BA strike out machines that pitchers no longer have to "pitch to contact." In other words, starters use to have to conserve energy to pitch 8 innings/start. But today, they are nibble on the corners and try to "trick" batters into missed swings. Other pitchers just rely on two pitches, a fastball and an off-speed pitch, and throw as hard as possible knowing that they are on a 100 pitch count. It does not matter if you are in the third or sixth, at 100 you are going to get yanked. So wins, an old measure of starting pitcher success, is another meaningless stat in the modern age. Pitchers don't have the mind set to go out a "win" a complete game because management has diminished their role by bolstering the bullpen to finish games. It also is driven by the fact that pitchers give up more hits the third time around in the batting order. So teams are planning to get a pitcher, however effective, out by the time the batting order rolls around for the third time.

All the nibbler pitchers have increased the time of games, and contributed to the wide variance in strike zones called by umpires. In the past, a quality pitcher will blister the zone with his best pitch challenging the hitter to hit it. Now, batters are sitting back looking for "a mistake" to hit. Since the pitcher has the advantage, most do themselves no great service by throwing outside the zone.

Traditional pitching coaches preach that it is not velocity that matters most in pitching, it is movement. But velocity speed guns are still the primary tool to evaluate pitchers. A 100 mph straight fast ball can be hit by any major talent. It is the 94 mph pitch that moves sideways or plummets down that causes batters more problems. Bruce Sutter was an ace closer not because he had a dynamic fastball, but because he developed the original fork ball, an enticing pitch that looked like a heart of the plate fastball until it dropped off a table at the last moment. Sutter was looking for swings and misses, but he could throw his fork ball for called strikes. He was a pitcher not a thrower.

A pitcher has a plan for each batter, because each batter has a hole in his swing. A sinker ball master can have opponents beat the ball to the infielders for easy outs. Such a plan limits the starter's pitch count and gets the entire team into the game. A thrower gets on the mound a rears back for every pitch. He does not really know where it will land because control is not his primary principle.

With all the new stat analysis, what is lost is the more basic elements of the game: runs and outs. Each team has 27 outs to score runs. How you use those outs to get runs is important. A "productive" out such as a sacrifice bunt, hitting to the opposite field, a sacrifice fly are all downplayed today. Teams have horrible collective stats with runners in scoring position. Why? An individual stat priority takes precedence over the proper situational play like moving the runner over, of choking up on the bat to hit a single instead of a home run. Scoring runs should be the priority of every player, but there is now an inherent bias to put individual stats (that's how players are paid) ahead of the team.

Front offices continue to hire cheaper, non-old school managers who management can control more with stats than gut strategy. The game is morphing into a video game without controllers.

BULLPENNING

In the evolution of baseball strategy, the role of the starting pitcher has diminished dramatically. In the past, including the modern golden era of the 1960s and even through to early 2000s, a premium position was starting pitcher. Aces were paid like stars. They were expected to pitch 7 or 8 quality innings for 35 times a season. They were expected to win 20 games. The mental position was that once I got the ball on the mound in the first inning, I would not leave until the game was over.

But there has been a sudden shift in pitching philosophy. The idea of a complete game by a starter is ancient history. Starters are now expected to only pitch through the 5th of 6th inning. Bullpens have expanded to 8 or 9 relievers making the bench for position players extremely small.

Tampa Bay started to carry this trend to a new level by "bullpenning" games. The stat mavens have concluded that starters get weaker as they go through the opponent's lineup a second or third time. Therefore, to eliminate that outcome, a manager will take out a starter, however effective that day, for a series of bullpen arms. But the Rays have started to adopt a more radical approach: start games with bullpen arms and let starters become long, middle relievers. It has worked as the Rays have the best team ERA since May.

Some people are not happy.

The Oakland Athletics are among Major League Baseball’s most surprising contending teams this season. The Athletic website reports that a late-season change in pitching philosophy could threaten to disrupt the relationship between the players and front office.

It all started over the weekend when the A’s became the latest team to adopt the “bullpenning” approach to pitching. Scheduled starter Daniel Mengden arrived to the ballpark for Saturday’s game against the Seattle Mariners expecting to begin his usual pregame routine. That’s when manager Bob Melvin informed him of the change in plans.

Instead, reliever Liam Hendriks was getting the starting nod as an opener, while Mendgen only knew he’d be pitching multiple innings in relief. The confusion admittedly led to frustration, and Mendgen’s performance suffered as a result.

Rather than go through one warm up routine, Mendgen was asked to warm up three different times before entering in the third inning. Seattle took advantage of the staggered Mendgen, scoring three runs in two innings. Now the entire A’s clubhouse seems to be wondering if bullpenning is necessary to achieve their goals.

The A’s obviously took notice of Tampa Bay’s success. Injuries to starters Sean Manaea and Brett Anderson left their rotation depth even thinner, Oakland's management decided bullpenning can help cover their rotation shortcomings. In long stretches during the season with no days off, a manager, including Cubs Joe Maddon, have had to resort to a "bullpen" game where a long reliever started hoping to get 3 or 4 good innings of work, then have the rest of the pen mop up. No starters were sacrificed in bullpen games.

Starting pitchers are creatures of habit. They prefer getting to the ballpark knowing what they have to do and when they have to do it to get ready. They have a set time to prepare for each game. They go over hitter charts with the catcher and bench coach. The pitcher starts his long toss and long bullpen session to get ready for the first inning. IN that preparation, a starter can see what pitches are actually working that day, and to adapt prior to seeing the first batter. It is totally different for a bullpen arm, who may only have 5 minutes to warm up (sometimes less).

“It’s going to affect the routine a little bit,” Mengden said after Saturday’s game. “But you have to adjust to it. It’s a little different sitting down for an inning or two in the bullpen. But playing at this level you have to be ready for anything and make adjustments on the fly.”

Mendgen adjusted well the second time he was asked to follow a reliever, tossing 4 2/3 scoreless innings of relief in Tuesday’s game against the New York Yankees. However, frustration remains in the clubhouse because such a drastic change came without any warning. Players like knowing what’s going on, and like being able to prepare ahead of time.

Whether this is a trend, or part of an effort to reduce costs (relievers are less expensive than starters) will be seen. Tampa Bay is not in a pennant race, but the A's are in one.

MORE COLE IN YOUR STOCKING

The Cubs were forced to make a move. Tyler Chatwood had another aggravating outing of walking 6 batters and putting the team into an early, big deficit.  Yu Darvish has been slow in his recovery to the point the team is now counting on a TJ-rehabber in Drew Smyly to make an impact in September.

So the Cubs made a trade for a second or third tier veteran starter in Cole Hamels. He has a no-hitter and a WS ring on his resume, but he has struggled for the Rangers this season. As MLBTR reports, the 34-year-old Hamels isn’t the ace that he once was, and he’s had his share of struggles in 2018 — albeit nearly all of them coming at his homer-happy home stadium in Arlington. Hamels is surrendering home runs at a career-worst rate, but it’s somewhat telling that 16 of the 23 round-trippers he’s yielded have come at Globe Life Park. Hamels has a 6.41 ERA, a 6.16 FIP and a 4.49 xFIP when pitching at home this season but a 2.93 ERA, 4.17 FIP and 3.83 xFIP on the road.

This is the same logic Theo used to justify signing Chatwood to a three year deal. Get him out of the hitter friendly Coors Field climate, and he will do great. It is apparent that throwing strikes or allowing home runs is not solely dependent on the climate.

The Cubs rotation, except for Lester, cannot get through five innings in any consistent manner. Hamels has to fit into the fourth or fifth starter role with the mentality of six plus innings in order to save the bullpen. Hendricks had another iffy outing, Quintana has had one quality start and two good ones in his last three, and Montgomery is hitting the wall by the fifth inning.

I suspect that Montgomery will move back into the bullpen as the long relief, emergency closer role from 2016.  Hamels will be in the rotation until Darvish returns. Then the real decision has to be made: keep sending Chatwood out to the mound to wet the bed, or go to a six man rotation (which Lester opposes.) You cannot trust the lack of command in Chatwood to be a leveraged relief pitcher. You can't waste Hamels potential for eating early innings in the bullpen.

In 20 starts this year, Hamels is 5-9, 4.72 ERA, 1.373 WHIP, 0.8 WAR. He is averaging 5 2/3 IP per start. If he fits into the rotation, the Cubs could probably count on 10-12 more starts from him (which would be slightly better than Chatwood's numbers). 

The Cubs gave up two minor league pitchers and a possible player-to-be-named later for Hamels. The Rangers will still eat most of the money owed to Hamels. Whether Hamels has anything left in the tank is the value of this trade.