Once the self-evaluation is completed, the Cubs front office should have a check list of items to correct/fill for 2018.
The shake-up in the coaching staff gives a clear message that last season's players were underperforming or lacking in development.
Even if the Cubs can get more production from Schwarber, Heyward, Russell, Baez and Almora, it cannot make up for the gaping holes in the 25 man roster.
PITCHING:
An aging Jon Lester leads the rotation, followed by Hendricks and Quintana. The entire rotation last season did not get into the 7th inning enough times to save the bullpen from being worn thin. Lester threw 180.2 IP/32 GS = 5.63 IP/GS. Henricks threw 139 IP/24 GS = 5.70 IP/GS. Quintana threw 84 IP/14 GS = 6 IP/GS. Over an entire season of 32 starts, these three will log in 557 IP.
A team needs to cover 1458 IP during a season. If you get 7 IP/starter, that covers 1,000 IP. That leaves 458 IP divided amongst 8 bullpen arms or 57.1 IP per reliever. Considering the specialization of the bullpen, that means each reliever probably gets 55 or more game appearances.
If your 4th and 5th starters only average 5 IP/start, that means the projected 2018 starters are only going to cover 857 innings. That is short 143 IP which adds to the bullpen arms an average 75 IP per reliever or a 31.5 percent increase in workload.
So the Cubs really need to find two starting pitchers capable of a) starting 32 games, and b) pitching at least 6 IP/GS to save the bullpen. Those workhorse starters are hard to find or expensive to acquire.
HITTING:
The Cubs really need more .300 bats in the line up. OBP stats are great, but the Cubs tend to feast or famine on home run hitters. A .300 hitting lead off man could solve many of the offensive issues of not having a set order, men on base for the heart of the order, and too many platoons. The Cubs really need to find a set batting order so players can know their roles, and get comfortable in the daily routine of preparation and play.
It really depends on how management views Almora, Happ and Schwarber. Are these three players everyday starters or are they trade chips?
If they are platoon players, then it may be better served to find everyday starters in CF and LF (preferably .300 hitter candidates).
The same is true with Zobrist and Heyward. Are they going to be regular starters or will they now become bench players due to their hitting woes?
If they are bench players, it may come to moving Bryant to the outfield, Baez to third and Happ to second.
CHECKLIST:
1. Lead off hitter, OF candidate with .300 career BA.
2. Two starting pitchers.
3. Four relief pitchers, including a closer.
4. Back up veteran catcher.
