Once the self-evaluation is completed, the Cubs front office should have a check list of items to correct/fill for 2018.
The shake-up in the coaching staff gives a clear message that last season's players were underperforming or lacking in development.
Even if the Cubs can get more production from Schwarber, Heyward, Russell, Baez and Almora, it cannot make up for the gaping holes in the 25 man roster.
PITCHING:
An aging Jon Lester leads the rotation, followed by Hendricks and Quintana. The entire rotation last season did not get into the 7th inning enough times to save the bullpen from being worn thin. Lester threw 180.2 IP/32 GS = 5.63 IP/GS. Henricks threw 139 IP/24 GS = 5.70 IP/GS. Quintana threw 84 IP/14 GS = 6 IP/GS. Over an entire season of 32 starts, these three will log in 557 IP.
A team needs to cover 1458 IP during a season. If you get 7 IP/starter, that covers 1,000 IP. That leaves 458 IP divided amongst 8 bullpen arms or 57.1 IP per reliever. Considering the specialization of the bullpen, that means each reliever probably gets 55 or more game appearances.
If your 4th and 5th starters only average 5 IP/start, that means the projected 2018 starters are only going to cover 857 innings. That is short 143 IP which adds to the bullpen arms an average 75 IP per reliever or a 31.5 percent increase in workload.
So the Cubs really need to find two starting pitchers capable of a) starting 32 games, and b) pitching at least 6 IP/GS to save the bullpen. Those workhorse starters are hard to find or expensive to acquire.
HITTING:
The Cubs really need more .300 bats in the line up. OBP stats are great, but the Cubs tend to feast or famine on home run hitters. A .300 hitting lead off man could solve many of the offensive issues of not having a set order, men on base for the heart of the order, and too many platoons. The Cubs really need to find a set batting order so players can know their roles, and get comfortable in the daily routine of preparation and play.
It really depends on how management views Almora, Happ and Schwarber. Are these three players everyday starters or are they trade chips?
If they are platoon players, then it may be better served to find everyday starters in CF and LF (preferably .300 hitter candidates).
The same is true with Zobrist and Heyward. Are they going to be regular starters or will they now become bench players due to their hitting woes?
If they are bench players, it may come to moving Bryant to the outfield, Baez to third and Happ to second.
CHECKLIST:
1. Lead off hitter, OF candidate with .300 career BA.
2. Two starting pitchers.
3. Four relief pitchers, including a closer.
4. Back up veteran catcher.
Showing posts with label winter meetings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label winter meetings. Show all posts
November 16, 2017
November 8, 2016
WINTER IS UPON US
The 2016 Cubs went 103-58 in the regular season. It had a team WAR of 57.4 (Hitting 37.4 + Pitching 20.0).
Currently, four key players will not be back.
Dexter Fowler: 13 HR, 48 RBI, 13 SB, .276 BA, 4.2 WAR
Jason Hammel: 15010, 166.2 IP, 1.206 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
David Ross: 10 HR, 32 RBI, .229 BA, 1.7 WAR
A. Chapman: 1-1, 1.01 ERA, 16 SV, 0.825 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
For the lack of starting pitching on the free agent market, the release of Hammel's option gives Hammel, 34, leverage to find a new landing spot on a team of his own choosing. It appears lefty Mike Montgomery will take over the 4th starter role in 2017.
Fowler, 30, declined a mutual option to again chase free agency. Last season he was close to signing with Baltimore. Rumors have it that the Blue Jays will take a run at him. It would appear Albert Almora will be the new center fielder. Whether he can be a lead off hitter is unknown.
Ross, 39, decided to retire after a memorable World Series run. He will walk away from the game, take some time off, and probably return in some coaching role. Who will be Jon Lester's new personal catcher. An angry Miguel Montero, who is still owned one year/$14 million from the Cubs, would be the leading candidate over Willson Contreras, who will catch the major of games in 2017. Most people doubt that after his knee injury, Kyle Schwarber will be able to catch games.
Chapman, 28, is set for a big payday in a very good closer free agent class. This leaves a void for Rondon, Strop or Edwards to be used as a closer by committee situation. The bullpen will get murkier as Travis Wood is also a free agent. Wood, 29, went 4-0, 2.55 ERA in 77 GP, 1.131 WHIP and 0.5 WAR. He fell out of favor with Maddon in the playoffs.
The four key departures equates to 14.1 % of total Team WAR.
The hitters departure equates to 15.8% of total Fielder WAR while the pitchers are 11% of Team Pitching WAR.
There will also be positional issues in the 2017 roster. Schwarber has shown he is built to be a DH. But the front office is so enamored with his bat that he falls into the category of a "no trade" player. But as a valuable asset, Schwarber could yield a top line starting pitcher like a Chris Sale.
The Winter Meetings start with the Cubs as the World Champions. Everyone will be gunning at the Cubs in 2017 to measure their own roster strengths. The championship hangover could hurt Chicago with a slow start. Depth, especially in starting rotation, will be an ongoing concern.
Currently, four key players will not be back.
Dexter Fowler: 13 HR, 48 RBI, 13 SB, .276 BA, 4.2 WAR
Jason Hammel: 15010, 166.2 IP, 1.206 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
David Ross: 10 HR, 32 RBI, .229 BA, 1.7 WAR
A. Chapman: 1-1, 1.01 ERA, 16 SV, 0.825 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
For the lack of starting pitching on the free agent market, the release of Hammel's option gives Hammel, 34, leverage to find a new landing spot on a team of his own choosing. It appears lefty Mike Montgomery will take over the 4th starter role in 2017.
Fowler, 30, declined a mutual option to again chase free agency. Last season he was close to signing with Baltimore. Rumors have it that the Blue Jays will take a run at him. It would appear Albert Almora will be the new center fielder. Whether he can be a lead off hitter is unknown.
Ross, 39, decided to retire after a memorable World Series run. He will walk away from the game, take some time off, and probably return in some coaching role. Who will be Jon Lester's new personal catcher. An angry Miguel Montero, who is still owned one year/$14 million from the Cubs, would be the leading candidate over Willson Contreras, who will catch the major of games in 2017. Most people doubt that after his knee injury, Kyle Schwarber will be able to catch games.
Chapman, 28, is set for a big payday in a very good closer free agent class. This leaves a void for Rondon, Strop or Edwards to be used as a closer by committee situation. The bullpen will get murkier as Travis Wood is also a free agent. Wood, 29, went 4-0, 2.55 ERA in 77 GP, 1.131 WHIP and 0.5 WAR. He fell out of favor with Maddon in the playoffs.
The four key departures equates to 14.1 % of total Team WAR.
The hitters departure equates to 15.8% of total Fielder WAR while the pitchers are 11% of Team Pitching WAR.
There will also be positional issues in the 2017 roster. Schwarber has shown he is built to be a DH. But the front office is so enamored with his bat that he falls into the category of a "no trade" player. But as a valuable asset, Schwarber could yield a top line starting pitcher like a Chris Sale.
The Winter Meetings start with the Cubs as the World Champions. Everyone will be gunning at the Cubs in 2017 to measure their own roster strengths. The championship hangover could hurt Chicago with a slow start. Depth, especially in starting rotation, will be an ongoing concern.
December 10, 2015
AAA DRAFT SELECTIONS
The Cubs minor league system is not know for being deep in pitching.
So it was surprising to note that four minor league Cub pitchers were taken in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 draft at the Winter Meetings.
The results of Cub farm hands changing teams:
Cincinnati Reds took Pin-Chieh Chen, 2B, Cubs
AA/AAA Age 23: 5 HR 46 RBI 21 SB, .263 BA
Los Angeles Angels took Ariel Ovando, LHP, Cubs, RF/1B
2014 A ball hitting: 1 HR 14 RBI .237 BA in 58 games
2015 Rk pitching: 15 games 21 IP 4-0 0.43 ERA, 0.952 WHIP
A converted hitter into a pitcher with little experience is kind of a wild card pick.
New York Yankees took Julian Aybar, RHP, Cubs
Age 23, Rk pitching 20 games: 8-1, 1.82 ERA, 0.882 WHIP
St. Louis Cardinals took Michael Heesch, LHP, Cubs
Age 25
In 2014 A/AAA: 4-1, 2.03 ERA, 1.147 WHIP in 25 games
In 2015 A+ ball : 8-2, 2.24 ERA, 1.259 WHIP in 33 games
Heesch was on some prospect boards:
The 25-year old left-handed starter (22 games, 22 starts) was the Cubs 8th round pick in 2012. This year he spent the entire season in advanced-A going 8-2 with a 2.24 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and held opponents to a .238 average. He throws a heavy fastball in the low 90′s with good tailing action that actually broke 4 bats in a two innings span this year. The 6’5 pitcher could fit the a roster as a LOOGY after holding lefty hitters to a .165/.259/.186 slash line in 2015.
So it was surprising to note that four minor league Cub pitchers were taken in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 draft at the Winter Meetings.
The results of Cub farm hands changing teams:
Cincinnati Reds took Pin-Chieh Chen, 2B, Cubs
AA/AAA Age 23: 5 HR 46 RBI 21 SB, .263 BA
Los Angeles Angels took Ariel Ovando, LHP, Cubs, RF/1B
2014 A ball hitting: 1 HR 14 RBI .237 BA in 58 games
2015 Rk pitching: 15 games 21 IP 4-0 0.43 ERA, 0.952 WHIP
A converted hitter into a pitcher with little experience is kind of a wild card pick.
New York Yankees took Julian Aybar, RHP, Cubs
Age 23, Rk pitching 20 games: 8-1, 1.82 ERA, 0.882 WHIP
St. Louis Cardinals took Michael Heesch, LHP, Cubs
Age 25
In 2014 A/AAA: 4-1, 2.03 ERA, 1.147 WHIP in 25 games
In 2015 A+ ball : 8-2, 2.24 ERA, 1.259 WHIP in 33 games
Heesch was on some prospect boards:
The 25-year old left-handed starter (22 games, 22 starts) was the Cubs 8th round pick in 2012. This year he spent the entire season in advanced-A going 8-2 with a 2.24 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and held opponents to a .238 average. He throws a heavy fastball in the low 90′s with good tailing action that actually broke 4 bats in a two innings span this year. The 6’5 pitcher could fit the a roster as a LOOGY after holding lefty hitters to a .165/.259/.186 slash line in 2015.
December 3, 2014
NOTES ON THE CUBS
With the winter meetings fast approaching, and the non-tender deadline past, the Cubs like all other teams should be finalizing their winter plans.
It is like an X-Mas list self-evaluation.
The Outfield. The rock band is still better than the current Cub players. A platoon of Coghlan-Riggiano, Alcantara and Soler does not bode well for 2015 and beyond. Soler is the new prototypical free swinger - - - high torque, high power, home runs or bust mentality like Baez. Can he mature and adjust in his first full season is the open question. Alcantara is still playing out of position; he is much more valuable as a second baseman. More likely than not, other clubs will be asking about him in trade because of his power. Left field is barren. Perhaps, this open stance is because the front office is looking to fill it with either Baez, Bryant or even Castro.
Evaluation: Need major upgrades in left field and center field.
The Infield. The front office continues to claim that Castro is the Cubs core shortstop now and in the future. However, he is the most valuable trade chip the team has (as the Yankees need to replace Jeter). Baez plays a better shortstop than Castro, and Alcantara plays a better second than Baez. Rizzo is going to anchor first base for a long time so that is the only position that is set. Third base is being held for Bryant, who wants to play there and not in the outfield. It is usually better to transition a potential star at his natural position rather than having him learn a new position at the same time as learning major league pitching. Valbuena may also be a trading chip at the winter meetings.
Evaluation: Need upgrade at third (which could be Bryant in June), stability up the middle.
Catcher. There has been a lot of negativity on Castillo. It seems to be mostly unfounded. He is a better defensive catcher than most people think. He is in the upper half in regard to catcher BA. The most probably detriment is potential injury history. But he grades out as a starter. The Cubs were reported to be on the Martin free agent negotiations. With Martin signing with the Blue Jays, the odd man out is D. Navarro, the ex-Cub, who hit .274, 12 HR, 69 RBI in 2014. He could be an upgrade, but not at the cost of a young middle infielder. Baker is a weak back up catcher, so anyone would be an improvement (except for Koy Hill).
Evaluation: Either keep Castillo as the #1, or trade big for an upgrade (Gattis).
Starting Pitching: This has been the trade bin for the Cubs the past several years. The trade and turnover of the starters has been remarkable. The question is whether the Cubs will stop trading starters and actually build a core staff. Arrieta has shown some good stuff, but throughout his career he has never put together back-to-back solid years. Hendricks had a nice debut season, but the league will adjust to him quickly. Neither Arrieta or Hendricks are lock down #1 starters. Wada and Wood are lefty #5 starters at best. E. Jackson is the lump of coal in the stocking. He was supposed to be a solid innings eater, but has been terrible. (There have been plenty of rumors that other teams like him, but no trades means no real interest.) The Cubs have a bunch of other journeymen (Turner, Doubront, Roach, Straily) from other clubs who add spot starter depth.
Evaluation: The Cubs need three quality starters in order to compete. The minor league system is not going to produce quality starters for some time.
Bullpen. The rest of the pitching staff performed above expectations. Grimm, Parker, Ramirez, Strop and Rondon all did quite well in their respective roles. The only upgrade could be adding a lefty specialist to the mix.
Evaluation: The core group is solid, but adding left handers is a possibility.
It is like an X-Mas list self-evaluation.
The Outfield. The rock band is still better than the current Cub players. A platoon of Coghlan-Riggiano, Alcantara and Soler does not bode well for 2015 and beyond. Soler is the new prototypical free swinger - - - high torque, high power, home runs or bust mentality like Baez. Can he mature and adjust in his first full season is the open question. Alcantara is still playing out of position; he is much more valuable as a second baseman. More likely than not, other clubs will be asking about him in trade because of his power. Left field is barren. Perhaps, this open stance is because the front office is looking to fill it with either Baez, Bryant or even Castro.
Evaluation: Need major upgrades in left field and center field.
The Infield. The front office continues to claim that Castro is the Cubs core shortstop now and in the future. However, he is the most valuable trade chip the team has (as the Yankees need to replace Jeter). Baez plays a better shortstop than Castro, and Alcantara plays a better second than Baez. Rizzo is going to anchor first base for a long time so that is the only position that is set. Third base is being held for Bryant, who wants to play there and not in the outfield. It is usually better to transition a potential star at his natural position rather than having him learn a new position at the same time as learning major league pitching. Valbuena may also be a trading chip at the winter meetings.
Evaluation: Need upgrade at third (which could be Bryant in June), stability up the middle.
Catcher. There has been a lot of negativity on Castillo. It seems to be mostly unfounded. He is a better defensive catcher than most people think. He is in the upper half in regard to catcher BA. The most probably detriment is potential injury history. But he grades out as a starter. The Cubs were reported to be on the Martin free agent negotiations. With Martin signing with the Blue Jays, the odd man out is D. Navarro, the ex-Cub, who hit .274, 12 HR, 69 RBI in 2014. He could be an upgrade, but not at the cost of a young middle infielder. Baker is a weak back up catcher, so anyone would be an improvement (except for Koy Hill).
Evaluation: Either keep Castillo as the #1, or trade big for an upgrade (Gattis).
Starting Pitching: This has been the trade bin for the Cubs the past several years. The trade and turnover of the starters has been remarkable. The question is whether the Cubs will stop trading starters and actually build a core staff. Arrieta has shown some good stuff, but throughout his career he has never put together back-to-back solid years. Hendricks had a nice debut season, but the league will adjust to him quickly. Neither Arrieta or Hendricks are lock down #1 starters. Wada and Wood are lefty #5 starters at best. E. Jackson is the lump of coal in the stocking. He was supposed to be a solid innings eater, but has been terrible. (There have been plenty of rumors that other teams like him, but no trades means no real interest.) The Cubs have a bunch of other journeymen (Turner, Doubront, Roach, Straily) from other clubs who add spot starter depth.
Evaluation: The Cubs need three quality starters in order to compete. The minor league system is not going to produce quality starters for some time.
Bullpen. The rest of the pitching staff performed above expectations. Grimm, Parker, Ramirez, Strop and Rondon all did quite well in their respective roles. The only upgrade could be adding a lefty specialist to the mix.
Evaluation: The core group is solid, but adding left handers is a possibility.
November 22, 2014
WINTER ROSTER
The Cubs added RHP C.J. Edwards to the protected 40 man roster. The Cubs 40 man roster stands at 39, which means the team has one space to fill via free agency or selecting another team's unprotected player at the winter meetings in December.
It also means that despite the hype of making a lot of moves, the Cubs are probably going to do just one (and most likely not a major move).
If there are players on the roster "bubble" (could easily be cut or waived to sign another player), there any many to choose from:
Watkins seems to be expendable since the Cubs just acquired LaStella.
Villanueva and Olt seem to be expendable when Kris Bryant hits the majors.
Szczur and Lake have not shown any consistent production to stick as a 5th outfielder.
So the Cubs have potentially five (5) additional 40 man roster spots available to upgrade their spring training roster. But if recent history is any tell, they are not anxious to pull the trigger on any substantial changes. One spot has to go to Bryant. Another spot may be for Addison Russell.
The above roster is the blueprint for 2015. Depth is still an issue. Young players adjusting to the majors is another issue.
As it stands today, the rotation seems to be Arrieta, Hendricks, Jackson, Wada, Wood with Turner, Doubront and Straily as injury replacements. This would be a downgrade from the 2014 starting rotation (Samardzjia and Hammel).
An outfield of Coghlan/Ruggiano, Alcantara and Soler is suspect.
The infield has Castro and Rizzo, but can Baez play better at second? Is Valbuena going to stay as a bench player until Bryant is called up in June - - - or will the team trade him at the winter meetings (thus allowing Olt to be the caretaker)?
It also means that despite the hype of making a lot of moves, the Cubs are probably going to do just one (and most likely not a major move).
| # | Pitchers | B/T | Ht | Wt | DOB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | Jake Arrieta | R-R | 6'4" | 225 | Mar 6, 1986 |
| 32 | Dallas Beeler | R-R | 6'5" | 210 | Jun 12, 1989 |
| 22 | Felix Doubront | L-L | 6'2" | 225 | Oct 23, 1987 |
| C.J. Edwards | R-R | 6'2" | 155 | Sep 3, 1991 | |
| 52 | Justin Grimm | R-R | 6'3" | 210 | Aug 16, 1988 |
| 28 | Kyle Hendricks | R-R | 6'3" | 190 | Dec 7, 1989 |
| 36 | Edwin Jackson | R-R | 6'3" | 210 | Sep 9, 1983 |
| 43 | Eric Jokisch | R-L | 6'2" | 185 | Jul 29, 1989 |
| Joseph Ortiz | L-L | 5'7" | 175 | Aug 13, 1990 | |
| 50 | Blake Parker | R-R | 6'3" | 225 | Jun 19, 1985 |
| 54 | Neil Ramirez | R-R | 6'4" | 190 | May 25, 1989 |
| Donn Roach | R-R | 6'0" | 195 | Dec 14, 1989 | |
| 56 | Hector Rondon | R-R | 6'3" | 180 | Feb 26, 1988 |
| 59 | Zac Rosscup | R-L | 6'2" | 205 | Jun 9, 1988 |
| 63 | Brian Schlitter | R-R | 6'5" | 235 | Dec 21, 1985 |
| 19 | Dan Straily | R-R | 6'2" | 215 | Dec 1, 1988 |
| 46 | Pedro Strop | R-R | 6'1" | 220 | Jun 13, 1985 |
| 38 | Jacob Turner | R-R | 6'5" | 215 | May 21, 1991 |
| 67 | Tsuyoshi Wada | L-L | 5'11" | 180 | Feb 21, 1981 |
| 37 | Travis Wood | R-L | 5'11" | 175 | Feb 6, 1987 |
| 53 | Wesley Wright | R-L | 5'11" | 185 | Jan 28, 1985 |
| # | Catchers | B/T | Ht | Wt | DOB |
| 12 | John Baker | L-R | 6'1" | 215 | Jan 20, 1981 |
| 5 | Welington Castillo | R-R | 5'10" | 210 | Apr 24, 1987 |
| 51 | Rafael Lopez | L-R | 5'9" | 190 | Oct 2, 1987 |
| # | Infielders | B/T | Ht | Wt | DOB |
| 7 | Arismendy Alcantara | S-R | 5'10" | 170 | Oct 29, 1991 |
| 9 | Javier Baez | R-R | 6'0" | 190 | Dec 1, 1992 |
| 13 | Starlin Castro | R-R | 6'0" | 190 | Mar 24, 1990 |
| Tommy La Stella | L-R | 5'11" | 185 | Jan 31, 1989 | |
| 30 | Mike Olt | R-R | 6'2" | 210 | Aug 27, 1988 |
| 44 | Anthony Rizzo | L-L | 6'3" | 240 | Aug 8, 1989 |
| 24 | Luis Valbuena | L-R | 5'10" | 200 | Nov 30, 1985 |
| 61 | Christian Villanueva | R-R | 5'11" | 210 | Jun 19, 1991 |
| 45 | Logan Watkins | L-R | 5'11" | 195 | Aug 29, 1989 |
| # | Outfielders | B/T | Ht | Wt | DOB |
| 8 | Chris Coghlan | L-R | 6'0" | 195 | Jun 18, 1985 |
| 21 | Junior Lake | R-R | 6'3" | 215 | Mar 27, 1990 |
| 20 | Justin Ruggiano | R-R | 6'1" | 210 | Apr 12, 1982 |
| 68 | Jorge Soler | R-R | 6'4" | 215 | Feb 25, 1992 |
| 6 | Ryan Sweeney | L-L | 6'4" | 225 | Feb 20, 1985 |
| 41 | Matt Szczur | R-R | 6'1" | 195 | Jul 20, 1989 |
If there are players on the roster "bubble" (could easily be cut or waived to sign another player), there any many to choose from:
Watkins seems to be expendable since the Cubs just acquired LaStella.
Villanueva and Olt seem to be expendable when Kris Bryant hits the majors.
Szczur and Lake have not shown any consistent production to stick as a 5th outfielder.
So the Cubs have potentially five (5) additional 40 man roster spots available to upgrade their spring training roster. But if recent history is any tell, they are not anxious to pull the trigger on any substantial changes. One spot has to go to Bryant. Another spot may be for Addison Russell.
The above roster is the blueprint for 2015. Depth is still an issue. Young players adjusting to the majors is another issue.
As it stands today, the rotation seems to be Arrieta, Hendricks, Jackson, Wada, Wood with Turner, Doubront and Straily as injury replacements. This would be a downgrade from the 2014 starting rotation (Samardzjia and Hammel).
An outfield of Coghlan/Ruggiano, Alcantara and Soler is suspect.
The infield has Castro and Rizzo, but can Baez play better at second? Is Valbuena going to stay as a bench player until Bryant is called up in June - - - or will the team trade him at the winter meetings (thus allowing Olt to be the caretaker)?
November 28, 2013
OFF SEASON BULLPEN
Most people gravitate towards the poor offense the Cubs had in 2013. However, looking at the bullpen as we head into the off-season, there is also concern in the pitching department. Per ESPN:
Chicago Cubs
2013 statistics: 4.04 ERA (13th), .736 OPS (13th), 20.4% K rate (12th), 10.3% BB rate (14th)
Record: 21-31, 39 saves, 26 blown saves, 48-14 when leading after six innings
Closer: Open for battle
Top setup guys: James Russell, Blake Parker
Others: Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon, Daniel Bard, Chang-Yong Lim, Brooks Raley, Carlos Villanueva, Kyuji Fujikawa
Free agents: Kevin Gregg, Matt Guerrier
Gregg and Guerrier will not be bad in 2014. The Cubs had the fourth-most blown saves in the majors in 2013, so the entire pen shares blame. The Cubs had counted on Fujikawa, a closer in Japan, to serve in that role but he underwent Tommy John surgery after pitching just six innings. It is unclear when he will return so there will be an open competition for closer.
Strop appears to be the in-house favorite to be promoted to closer, but the Orioles had given up on him due to his inconsistent control. Parker struck out 55 in 46.1 innings but doesn't have live fastball to get out of 9th inning jams. Bard is struggling in the winter ball. None of the current relievers seem to be a knock-out closer in 2014.
In addition, Rondon, the Rule 5 pick up last year, will most likely be returned to the minors for additional seasoning like the Cubs did with Lendy Castillo. Depending on what the Cubs do with Jeff Samardzija, Villaneuva could be the 5th starter or long reliever next season, a role he did okay with in 2013. Lim and Raley are replacement level soft tossers. Russell may have been overworked to the point of ineffectiveness.
So it is possible that the Cubs will need to drastically re-tool the pen this off-season. Strop, Parker, Villaneuva and Russell are the only known commodities. That means the Cubs will need to find at least four more bullpen arms by the end of spring training.
Chicago Cubs
2013 statistics: 4.04 ERA (13th), .736 OPS (13th), 20.4% K rate (12th), 10.3% BB rate (14th)
Record: 21-31, 39 saves, 26 blown saves, 48-14 when leading after six innings
Closer: Open for battle
Top setup guys: James Russell, Blake Parker
Others: Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon, Daniel Bard, Chang-Yong Lim, Brooks Raley, Carlos Villanueva, Kyuji Fujikawa
Free agents: Kevin Gregg, Matt Guerrier
Gregg and Guerrier will not be bad in 2014. The Cubs had the fourth-most blown saves in the majors in 2013, so the entire pen shares blame. The Cubs had counted on Fujikawa, a closer in Japan, to serve in that role but he underwent Tommy John surgery after pitching just six innings. It is unclear when he will return so there will be an open competition for closer.
Strop appears to be the in-house favorite to be promoted to closer, but the Orioles had given up on him due to his inconsistent control. Parker struck out 55 in 46.1 innings but doesn't have live fastball to get out of 9th inning jams. Bard is struggling in the winter ball. None of the current relievers seem to be a knock-out closer in 2014.
In addition, Rondon, the Rule 5 pick up last year, will most likely be returned to the minors for additional seasoning like the Cubs did with Lendy Castillo. Depending on what the Cubs do with Jeff Samardzija, Villaneuva could be the 5th starter or long reliever next season, a role he did okay with in 2013. Lim and Raley are replacement level soft tossers. Russell may have been overworked to the point of ineffectiveness.
So it is possible that the Cubs will need to drastically re-tool the pen this off-season. Strop, Parker, Villaneuva and Russell are the only known commodities. That means the Cubs will need to find at least four more bullpen arms by the end of spring training.
November 24, 2013
WINTER ROSTER
The Cubs will probably enter the Winter Meetings with this active roster:
Just before the deadline, the Cubs added Arismendy Alcantara (2B/SS), Dallas Beeler (RHP) to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft at the Winter Meetings.
Looking at this roster, we can begin to eliminate those players who really have no future with the new front office: 3B Josh Vitters, OF Brett Jackson, OF Matt Szczur. Whether any of these "old" prospects have any trade value except for exchanging "change of scenery" players is debatable.
Then we have the journeymen'replacement players who have no future as being part of the "core" rebuild: RP Alberto Cabrera, RP Hector Rondon, RP Zac Rosscup, 2B Logan Watkins, OF Brian Bogusevic, OF Ryan Sweeney.
Then you have projected utility/bench guys for other teams: 2B Barney, 1B Mat Gamel, IN Donnie Murphy, IN Luis Valbuena, 3B Christian Villaneuva, OF Junior Lake.
If one has to rank the player values (for trade purposes), this is what I get:
1. Travis Wood, LHP: There would no reason to trade Wood as he appears to be the most consistent starter.
2. Nate Schierholtz, OF: After a career best offensive season, it would probably be best to trade him at his peak.
3. Jeff Samardzija, RHP: Since there is other team interest in the Shark, he has value, especially since he hit 200 IP this season.
4. Wellington Castillo, C: There is a shortage of power hitting catchers in baseball, so Castillo's value is very good. However, since the Cubs have no heir apparent in the organization, Castillo will not be traded.
5. Starlin Castro, SS: Castro is an interesting candidate because he is still young, and has had success in the past. Some teams may think they can "fix" his swing to bring back his production. But after a regression year, his trade value has taken a hit.
6. Anthony Rizzo, 1B: Rizzo is in the same position as Castro, a regressive season after a lot of front office hype. Despite the press releases, Rizzo is barely an average first baseman defensively. The NL is looking for power hitting first basemen, but his poor BA devalues him.
7. Donnie Murphy, IN: A scrap heap in-season signing, Murphy surprised everyone with his power and play at third base. However, every team passed on his services before last season started; he may be one of those journeyman guys that a contender may want to solidify their bench.
8. Chris Rusin, LHP: He has show some ability as a starter, and lefty starters are in demand; but he is not overpowering pitcher so a team with a large ball park (like San Diego) would be suited for him. His trade value is low because he projects at best as a 4th starter on the right team. The Cubs probably think he is more valuable staying a Cub in 2014.
9. Pedro Strop, RHP: Strop was traded by the Orioles because of his inconsistent control. He got some of that back with the Cubs, so some teams may like to have his arm in their pen. However, given the uncertainty of the Cubs bullpen, Strop won't be traded.
10. Brooks Raley, LHP: Like Rusin, he has show some ability as a starter, and lefty starters are in demand; but he is not overpowering pitcher so a team with a large ball park (like San Diego) would be suited for him. His trade value is low because he projects at best as a 5th-6th starter. I think the Cubs would package him in a trade to get more value.
| # | Pitchers | B/T | Ht | Wt | DOB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | Jake Arrieta | R-R | 6'4" | 225 | Mar 6, 1986 |
| 28 | Daniel Bard | R-R | 6'4" | 215 | Jun 25, 1985 |
| 55 | Alberto Cabrera | R-R | 6'4" | 210 | Oct 25, 1988 |
| 11 | Kyuji Fujikawa | L-R | 6'0" | 190 | Jul 21, 1980 |
| 52 | Justin Grimm | R-R | 6'3" | 200 | Aug 16, 1988 |
| 36 | Edwin Jackson | R-R | 6'3" | 210 | Sep 9, 1983 |
| 12 | Chang-Yong Lim | R-R | 5'11" | 175 | Jun 4, 1976 |
| 50 | Blake Parker | R-R | 6'3" | 225 | Jun 19, 1985 |
| 43 | Brooks Raley | L-L | 6'3" | 200 | Jun 29, 1988 |
| Neil Ramirez | R-R | 6'4" | 190 | May 25, 1989 | |
| 56 | Hector Rondon | R-R | 6'3" | 180 | Feb 26, 1988 |
| 59 | Zac Rosscup | R-L | 6'2" | 205 | Jun 9, 1988 |
| 18 | Chris Rusin | L-L | 6'2" | 195 | Oct 22, 1986 |
| 40 | James Russell | L-L | 6'4" | 200 | Jan 8, 1986 |
| 29 | Jeff Samardzija | R-R | 6'5" | 225 | Jan 23, 1985 |
| 46 | Pedro Strop | R-R | 6'0" | 215 | Jun 13, 1985 |
| 33 | Carlos Villanueva | R-R | 6'2" | 215 | Nov 28, 1983 |
| 41 | Arodys Vizcaino | R-R | 6'0" | 190 | Nov 13, 1990 |
| 37 | Travis Wood | R-L | 5'11" | 175 | Feb 6, 1987 |
| # | Catchers | B/T | Ht | Wt | DOB |
| 53 | Welington Castillo | R-R | 5'10" | 210 | Apr 24, 1987 |
| # | Infielders | B/T | Ht | Wt | DOB |
| 15 | Darwin Barney | R-R | 5'10" | 185 | Nov 8, 1985 |
| 13 | Starlin Castro | R-R | 5'10" | 190 | Mar 24, 1990 |
| Mat Gamel | L-R | 6'1" | 220 | Jul 26, 1985 | |
| 8 | Donnie Murphy | R-R | 5'10" | 190 | Mar 10, 1983 |
| Mike Olt | R-R | 6'2" | 210 | Aug 27, 1988 | |
| 44 | Anthony Rizzo | L-L | 6'3" | 240 | Aug 8, 1989 |
| 24 | Luis Valbuena | L-R | 5'10" | 170 | Nov 30, 1985 |
| 61 | Christian Villanueva | R-R | 5'11" | 160 | Jun 19, 1991 |
| 5 | Josh Vitters | R-R | 6'2" | 200 | Aug 27, 1989 |
| 22 | Logan Watkins | L-R | 5'11" | 175 | Aug 29, 1989 |
| # | Outfielders | B/T | Ht | Wt | DOB |
| 47 | Brian Bogusevic | L-L | 6'3" | 220 | Feb 18, 1984 |
| 7 | Brett Jackson | L-R | 6'2" | 220 | Aug 2, 1988 |
| 21 | Junior Lake | R-R | 6'3" | 215 | Mar 27, 1990 |
| 19 | Nate Schierholtz | L-R | 6'2" | 215 | Feb 15, 1984 |
| 68 | Jorge Soler | R-R | 6'4" | 215 | Feb 25, 1992 |
| 6 | Ryan Sweeney | L-L | 6'4" | 225 | Feb 20, 1985 |
| 72 | Matt Szczur | R-R | 6'1" | 195 | Jul 20, 1989 |
Just before the deadline, the Cubs added Arismendy Alcantara (2B/SS), Dallas Beeler (RHP) to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft at the Winter Meetings.
Looking at this roster, we can begin to eliminate those players who really have no future with the new front office: 3B Josh Vitters, OF Brett Jackson, OF Matt Szczur. Whether any of these "old" prospects have any trade value except for exchanging "change of scenery" players is debatable.
Then we have the journeymen'replacement players who have no future as being part of the "core" rebuild: RP Alberto Cabrera, RP Hector Rondon, RP Zac Rosscup, 2B Logan Watkins, OF Brian Bogusevic, OF Ryan Sweeney.
Then you have projected utility/bench guys for other teams: 2B Barney, 1B Mat Gamel, IN Donnie Murphy, IN Luis Valbuena, 3B Christian Villaneuva, OF Junior Lake.
If one has to rank the player values (for trade purposes), this is what I get:
1. Travis Wood, LHP: There would no reason to trade Wood as he appears to be the most consistent starter.
2. Nate Schierholtz, OF: After a career best offensive season, it would probably be best to trade him at his peak.
3. Jeff Samardzija, RHP: Since there is other team interest in the Shark, he has value, especially since he hit 200 IP this season.
4. Wellington Castillo, C: There is a shortage of power hitting catchers in baseball, so Castillo's value is very good. However, since the Cubs have no heir apparent in the organization, Castillo will not be traded.
5. Starlin Castro, SS: Castro is an interesting candidate because he is still young, and has had success in the past. Some teams may think they can "fix" his swing to bring back his production. But after a regression year, his trade value has taken a hit.
6. Anthony Rizzo, 1B: Rizzo is in the same position as Castro, a regressive season after a lot of front office hype. Despite the press releases, Rizzo is barely an average first baseman defensively. The NL is looking for power hitting first basemen, but his poor BA devalues him.
7. Donnie Murphy, IN: A scrap heap in-season signing, Murphy surprised everyone with his power and play at third base. However, every team passed on his services before last season started; he may be one of those journeyman guys that a contender may want to solidify their bench.
8. Chris Rusin, LHP: He has show some ability as a starter, and lefty starters are in demand; but he is not overpowering pitcher so a team with a large ball park (like San Diego) would be suited for him. His trade value is low because he projects at best as a 4th starter on the right team. The Cubs probably think he is more valuable staying a Cub in 2014.
9. Pedro Strop, RHP: Strop was traded by the Orioles because of his inconsistent control. He got some of that back with the Cubs, so some teams may like to have his arm in their pen. However, given the uncertainty of the Cubs bullpen, Strop won't be traded.
10. Brooks Raley, LHP: Like Rusin, he has show some ability as a starter, and lefty starters are in demand; but he is not overpowering pitcher so a team with a large ball park (like San Diego) would be suited for him. His trade value is low because he projects at best as a 5th-6th starter. I think the Cubs would package him in a trade to get more value.
August 26, 2013
40 GOOD MEN
After the season, the Cubs can only protect 40 players on their off-season roster (in addition to the younger minor league prospects not subject to the Rule 5 draft).
The Cubs current 40 man roster is as follows:
Pitchers: (24)
Jake Arrieta
Scott Baker DL
Michael Bowden
Alberto Cabrera
Rafael Dolis DL
Kyuji Fujikawa
Kevin Gregg
Justin Grimm
Matt Guerrier DL
Edwin Jackson
Trey McNutt
Blake Parker
Zach Putnam DL
Brooks Raley
Neil Ramirez
Hector Rondon
Chris Rusin
James Russell
Jeff Samardzija
Eduardo Sanchez
Pedro Strop
Carlos Villanueva
Arodys Vizcaino DL
Travis Wood
Catchers: (3)
JC Boscan
Wellington Castillo
Dioner Navarro
Infielders: (10)
Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro
Donnie Murphy
Mike Olt
Cody Ransom
Anthony Rizzo
Luis Valbuena DL
Christian Villanueva
Josh Vitters
Logan Watkins
Outfielders: (11)
Brian Bogusevic
Cole Gillespie
Brett Jackson
Junior Lake
Darnell McDonald
Thomas Neal DL
Dave Sappelt
Nate Schierholtz
Jorge Soler
Ryan Sweeney DL
Matt Szczur
The Cubs currently have 48 players under control due to the those on injured reserve. There will be some movement to protect their top five or so Rule 5 minor league players, so the Cubs at a minimum will need to pare 13 players off the 40 man roster.
A few will fall off by their own accord as FAs: Baker, Gregg, Navarro.
A few more will drop off by virtue of their age and career status: Boscan, McDonald, Guerrier.
A few more will probably drop off because they have fallen out of favor with the front office (deemed no longer key prospects): Dolis, McNutt, Vitters, B. Jackson, Sappelt, Scuzur.
Then there are the journeymen who have no foundational future with the Cubs: Ransom, Gillespie, Neal.
That are 15 cuts right off the top.
That leaves the 2014 Cubs "core" as:
Pitchers: (19)
Jake Arrieta
Michael Bowden
Alberto Cabrera
Kyuji Fujikawa
Justin Grimm
Edwin Jackson
Blake Parker
Zach Putnam DL
Brooks Raley
Neil Ramirez
Hector Rondon
Chris Rusin
James Russell
Jeff Samardzija
Eduardo Sanchez
Pedro Strop
Carlos Villanueva
Arodys Vizcaino DL
Travis Wood
Catchers: (1)
Wellington Castillo
Infielders: (8)
Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro
Donnie Murphy
Mike Olt
Anthony Rizzo
Luis Valbuena DL
Christian Villanueva
Logan Watkins
Outfielders: (5)
Brian Bogusevic
Junior Lake
Nate Schierholtz
Jorge Soler
Ryan Sweeney DL
33 players leaves 7 promotions/acquisitions during the off season.
The 2014 rotation would seem to be Samardzija, T. Wood (LHP), E. Jackson, Arrieta, Rusin (LHP)
Grimm, Carlos Villanueva and injured Arodys Vizcaino are possible starters as well.
The 2014 infield would seem to be set, too. 1B: Rizzo, 2B: Barney, SS: Castro, 3B: Murphy (or Olt if he gets his act together in the minors).
The 2014 outfield seems to be another sore spot. LF: Sweeney or Bogusevic, CF: Lake, RF: Schierholtz. Lake may have a sophomore slump and the rest appear to be journeymen bench players since Soler will not be up next year.
It is interesting to note that the 2014 line up players do not seem to have a lot of post-season trade value which in a backhanded complimentary way, solidifies their roles for the 2014 Cubs. It is also my opinion that the Cubs will not be active in the free agent market due to two circumstances: the payroll budget will continue to be forced down and that Ricketts will want to conserve funds to pay for his massive real estate development projects.
As for potential prospects being added to the 40 man this winter to protect them from Rule 5 draft, the top five are probably:
INF Arismendy Alcantara (#8 prospect), Gioskar Amaya (#20),
SP Eric Jokisch, LHP (threw a no hitter this season), Dae-Eun Rhee (24 year old AA pitcher)
OF Jae-Hon Ha (#16)
The players subject to Rule 5 loss include Casey Coleman, Lendy Castillo and Gerardo Concepcion.
This would leave the Cubs approximately two open spots to a) make another Rule 5 draft selection of their own - - - which have not been overwhelming so far or b) sign another rehabbing former major league pitcher with the hopes of flipping him for prospects at the 2014 trade deadline. Either option is not very appealing because it would signal that the Cubs plan to continue to mediocre roster plan for 2014 that has been in place in 2012 and 2013.
The Cubs current 40 man roster is as follows:
Pitchers: (24)
Jake Arrieta
Scott Baker DL
Michael Bowden
Alberto Cabrera
Rafael Dolis DL
Kyuji Fujikawa
Kevin Gregg
Justin Grimm
Matt Guerrier DL
Edwin Jackson
Trey McNutt
Blake Parker
Zach Putnam DL
Brooks Raley
Neil Ramirez
Hector Rondon
Chris Rusin
James Russell
Jeff Samardzija
Eduardo Sanchez
Pedro Strop
Carlos Villanueva
Arodys Vizcaino DL
Travis Wood
Catchers: (3)
JC Boscan
Wellington Castillo
Dioner Navarro
Infielders: (10)
Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro
Donnie Murphy
Mike Olt
Cody Ransom
Anthony Rizzo
Luis Valbuena DL
Christian Villanueva
Josh Vitters
Logan Watkins
Outfielders: (11)
Brian Bogusevic
Cole Gillespie
Brett Jackson
Junior Lake
Darnell McDonald
Thomas Neal DL
Dave Sappelt
Nate Schierholtz
Jorge Soler
Ryan Sweeney DL
Matt Szczur
The Cubs currently have 48 players under control due to the those on injured reserve. There will be some movement to protect their top five or so Rule 5 minor league players, so the Cubs at a minimum will need to pare 13 players off the 40 man roster.
A few will fall off by their own accord as FAs: Baker, Gregg, Navarro.
A few more will drop off by virtue of their age and career status: Boscan, McDonald, Guerrier.
A few more will probably drop off because they have fallen out of favor with the front office (deemed no longer key prospects): Dolis, McNutt, Vitters, B. Jackson, Sappelt, Scuzur.
Then there are the journeymen who have no foundational future with the Cubs: Ransom, Gillespie, Neal.
That are 15 cuts right off the top.
That leaves the 2014 Cubs "core" as:
Pitchers: (19)
Jake Arrieta
Michael Bowden
Alberto Cabrera
Kyuji Fujikawa
Justin Grimm
Edwin Jackson
Blake Parker
Zach Putnam DL
Brooks Raley
Neil Ramirez
Hector Rondon
Chris Rusin
James Russell
Jeff Samardzija
Eduardo Sanchez
Pedro Strop
Carlos Villanueva
Arodys Vizcaino DL
Travis Wood
Catchers: (1)
Wellington Castillo
Infielders: (8)
Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro
Donnie Murphy
Mike Olt
Anthony Rizzo
Luis Valbuena DL
Christian Villanueva
Logan Watkins
Outfielders: (5)
Brian Bogusevic
Junior Lake
Nate Schierholtz
Jorge Soler
Ryan Sweeney DL
33 players leaves 7 promotions/acquisitions during the off season.
The 2014 rotation would seem to be Samardzija, T. Wood (LHP), E. Jackson, Arrieta, Rusin (LHP)
Grimm, Carlos Villanueva and injured Arodys Vizcaino are possible starters as well.
The 2014 infield would seem to be set, too. 1B: Rizzo, 2B: Barney, SS: Castro, 3B: Murphy (or Olt if he gets his act together in the minors).
The 2014 outfield seems to be another sore spot. LF: Sweeney or Bogusevic, CF: Lake, RF: Schierholtz. Lake may have a sophomore slump and the rest appear to be journeymen bench players since Soler will not be up next year.
It is interesting to note that the 2014 line up players do not seem to have a lot of post-season trade value which in a backhanded complimentary way, solidifies their roles for the 2014 Cubs. It is also my opinion that the Cubs will not be active in the free agent market due to two circumstances: the payroll budget will continue to be forced down and that Ricketts will want to conserve funds to pay for his massive real estate development projects.
As for potential prospects being added to the 40 man this winter to protect them from Rule 5 draft, the top five are probably:
INF Arismendy Alcantara (#8 prospect), Gioskar Amaya (#20),
SP Eric Jokisch, LHP (threw a no hitter this season), Dae-Eun Rhee (24 year old AA pitcher)
OF Jae-Hon Ha (#16)
The players subject to Rule 5 loss include Casey Coleman, Lendy Castillo and Gerardo Concepcion.
This would leave the Cubs approximately two open spots to a) make another Rule 5 draft selection of their own - - - which have not been overwhelming so far or b) sign another rehabbing former major league pitcher with the hopes of flipping him for prospects at the 2014 trade deadline. Either option is not very appealing because it would signal that the Cubs plan to continue to mediocre roster plan for 2014 that has been in place in 2012 and 2013.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)