RIZZOWORLD

A post-season review of Cubs starter Anthony Rizzo has turned as harsh as the Chicago winter.

Matthew Pouliot of Rotoworld opined that Rizzo was one of the majors most "over rated" first basemen:

Anthony Rizzo -- Cubs - I didn't think I was down on Rizzo, but he has an average draft position of 101 at Yahoo so far, while I place him 157th in the top 300. On the one hand, it looks like quite a fluke that Rizzo hit just .233 last season, given his obvious power and the fact that his strikeout rate was below the league average. Still, I think he's more of a .260-.270 guy than someone likely to hit .280-.290. Also, he has a really crummy lineup around him again. The Cubs got OBPs of .321 and .310 from the top two spots in the lineup ahead of Rizzo last year, and they've done nothing to upgrade over the winter. Actually, they've most likely downgraded, since David DeJesus had a .341 OBP in his 66 games as a leadoff man last season. I have Rizzo posting the same kind of OPS as guys ahead of him like Eric Hosmer, Morales and Mike Napoli, but I expect him to lag behind all of those guys in RBI.

Numbers don't lie. And the fact that the Cubs are a bad team does not help a middle of the line up hitter's production.

However, Rizzo has put up a 2.4 WAR (2012) and 2.6 WAR (2013) which are solid starter numbers. He has hit 39 HR and driven in 137 RBI as a Cub which an average 19.5 HR and 68.5 RBI. People expect 30 HR and 100 RBI seasons from Rizzo, which means that he would have to increase his offensive production by 46 to 54 percent in order to attain those goals.  In order to do that, the Cubs team would have to increase its team on-base percentage by a similar amount in order for Rizzo to have base runners in front of him and the ability to see better pitches. Currently, the Cubs have no lead off or number two hitter to set the table, or a solid #4 threat to protect Rizzo in the third slot in the order. One solution is to move Starlin Castro to lead off and let him swing away. However, that move creates Castro as a mini-Soriano, which may not be a good thing over the long term.

LAHAIR TODAY GONE TOMORROW

We probably have unwittingly witnessed history this season: an All-Star to a nobody in less than one month.

The Cubs Byran LaHair may be in the AAAA Hall of Fame for busting out a first half of the season with power and average to be awarded an All-Star selection, and then to obscurity when the Cubs called up prospects Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson.

LaHair joins a line of Cubs AAA players that toiled in the minors most of their careers, putting up huge offensive numbers, making a debut splash then burn out quickly like a July 4th firework.The league's pitchers caught up to his power zones; and there was not place to play regularly in the field.

In 9 minor league seasons, LaHair hit 159 HRs, drove in 651 RBI with a .295 career average. But neither his old club, the Mariners, or the Cubs had room for him on their major league roster. So at age 29, LaHair got his first chance for a full major league season. Which was cut short less than halfway through.

When he hit his 15th home run yesterday in Milwaukee, it was his first shot since July 4th. He got in the lineup for a resting Soriano in left field. He returns to bench for the next series. He knows his role and accepts it. He told ESPNChicago "It's definitely tough. It's not something that I'm used to and it's definitely not something I like. I have a role now and I'm just trying to the best job I can possibly do and learn that role."

He has only started five times since August 4th, and pulled in one game for a pinch hitter. The Cubs tried to trade him before the deadline, but no other team seemed interested in him (including a package deal with Dempster to the Dodgers).

So LaHair sits on the bench with 15 HR, 34 RBI, .254 BA, .338 OBP waiting for limited playing time.

It is clear that LaHair is not in the Cubs rebuilding plans. Rizzo is the long term solution at first base. The Cubs are trying out Jackson for the rest of this year, and have many more outfielders moving up the system for next season. But for a front office that says it is keen on the idea of "assets" being moved to acquire more assets, the LaHair situation basically destroys any value he has to the Cubs, as a player or as a bargaining chip. Baseball can be a cruel business. Opportunities usually only knock once (especially when a promoted player is older).

FIRST BASE BLOCK

A sly general manager in a position of need should look to other clubs to find a player to help improve his own roster. A good way to find a major league ready prospect to see who is being blocked from being promoted from AAA. A highly paid free agent signee or an All-Star at the current major league roster spot will block a AAA player at the same position from being promoted.

The Cubs have a void to fill at first base. Derek Lee held down that spot for years (effectively blocking the promotion of Cub prospects) and Carlos Pena held the position last season. But Pena is a free agent looking for a three year deal the Cubs cannot pay, so the team needs to fill that important spot in the order.

Early in the post season, the discussion of Theo Epstein's compensation with Boston (and the possibility of a trade to make amends) led us to find that the Red Sox have a AAA first base prospect who had fallen out of favor: Lars Anderson.

Anderson, 24, AAA stats:  14 HR,  78 RBI,  5 SB .265 BA .791 OPS .992 Fielding %

He fits the Epstein criteria of being a young player. Anderson will be blocked at first base and DH spot in Boston in 2012.

The next name were heard of was Kendry Morales. After the Angels signed Albert Pujols, the Angels have a surplus of first basemen. However, Morales has been injured for the past two years and would be a risky investment.

Recently, the Padres made a big trade of their Number One starter to the Reds for prospects, including a first baseman. This led to the speculation that the Padres AAA first baseman, Antony Rizzo, was going to be blocked from a promotion in 2012.

Rizzo, 22, AAA stats: 26 HR 101 RBI 7 SB .331 BA 1.056 OPS .985 Fielding %

Again, Rizzo fits the Epstein model of being a young talent with upside potential.

But to pry an Anderson or Rizzo from their current teams would take a major deal. Such a deal would involve Matt Garza. Besides the Padres or Red Sox, the Yankees are also in the market for starters. The Yanks have Texiera at first for the long term, so their AAA first baseman is Jorge Vazquez.

Vazquez, 29 AAA stats: 32 HR, 93 RBI, 0 SB, .262 BA, .830 OPS , .992 Fielding %

Vazquez has the power numbers to be a first baseman, but the negative is that he is 29 years old. After a certain point, players that have not been promoted by this age get labeled "AAAA players."

However, when you look at these three blocked prospects, the Cubs have their own home solution who had better stats than any of them: Bryan LaHair.

LaHair, 29, AAA stats: 38 HR 109 RBI, 2 SB, .331 BA OPS  1.070, .992 Fielding %

Considering that the Cubs have no power hitting back up first baseman on the roster, any of these prospects could be viable alternatives or bench players in 2012.