The Cubs surged into first before the AS break, but now have begun to wobble in the heat of July.
Kyle Hendricks is not the old Hendricks, a pinpoint professor in the art of pitching. Teams have finally figured him out. An 88 mph fastball is not his out pitch. Batters are now sitting on change ups that are in the hitting zone. As Hendricks relies more on off-speed stuff on the corners, umpires are taking away is major advantage by calling more balls. Patient hitters and smaller strike calls is making Hendricks an average pitcher. It could change if he uses his fastball more to keep the batters honest and off-guard.
Kris Bryant was pulled from the line-up because of his shoulder issue. He said before the ASG that it was an injury that he will have to deal with throughout the season. But word is that he cannot even swing the bat. That means a probable DL stint and the return of Bote at third. Having Bryant out of the line-up puts more pressure on Rizzo, who is trying to hit his way out of his own personal slump by leading off. But Maddon will have to move Rizzo out of the #1 spot to increase scoring chances if Bryant goes on the DL.
Yu Darvish is becoming a real bad issue. The Cubs were happy that Darvish yesterday threw 16 pitches off the mound after three weeks of rest. Sixteen pitches is not a start. It seems that Darvish's progress has been painstakingly slow. The front office is counting more on Drew Smyly coming off Tommy John surgery than Darvish. Montgomery was great when he first took Darvish's spot in the rotation, but now after a half dozen starts, he is falling back into being an average starter (which ironically is better than the Cubs original 4th and 5th starters).
Javy Baez is trying to do too much. He got throw out again for aggressive baserunning. He needs to calm down and let the team win games. Baez is the Cubs current MVP. He is the only true five tool player on the roster who can make exciting plays at the plate and in the field. But Baez has a history of coming unglued at the bat. Let us see if he has matured enough to adjust to his new leader-by-example role.
The bullpen was re-tooled in order to be ready for the post-season. Brandon Morrow was the new closer, and Maddon kept him on the light work load. But Morrow got hurt anyway (which is his M.O.). The rotation has been sub-par all year, with very few quality starts. More times than not, starters are barely throwing five innings - - - which taxes the bullpen to the extreme that now four different position players have thrown in relief. Jesse Chavez acquisition was needed to find a "rubber" arm veteran who can do long relief, short relief, close and spot start. But asking Chavez to be the bullpen godsend is asking too much.
The Cubs offense still runs in feast or famine mode. They score a lot of runs, or they score very little. Consistency in the batting order could be blamed for the hot and cold mentality, but Maddon would disagree. He wants to use his entire roster to keep them fresh and in the game. But since the ASG, he has literally given up midway through 2 games (for losses).
The Cubs probably need to make a big move at the trade deadline, but they do not have any great minor league prospects to trade. And Theo and Jed are in love with "their" guys to trade away Happ, Schwarber or Almora.
Showing posts with label Rizzo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rizzo. Show all posts
July 25, 2018
June 28, 2017
WALKING ON EGG SHELLS
Jake Arrieta does have a slow delivery to the plate when runners are on base.
Runners can get a good jump on him.
Miguel Montero is an average catcher with a below average throw out ratio
of runners trying to steal.
Of course, that is a bad combo. And the Nationals stole a team record 7 bases last night to prove it.
So after the game, Montero goes off and blames Arrieta for the 7 steals (even though one of his throws bounced 20 feet in front of second.)
Anthony Rizzo publicly blasts Montero's comments as being "unprofessional."
Normally, these spats are kept behind clubhouse doors. But it shows that the 2016 Happy Happy Cubs clubhouse is not that cheery anymore. One incident sparked a wild fire explosion which quickly led to the front office designating Montero for assignment. Players must have been walking on egg shells for the underwhelming performance for one rant to turn into a job termination bullet.
That means the Cubs have 10 days to trade him (like they did this week with LHP Rosscup) or Montero becomes a free agent (and the Cubs must pay the remaining balance on his large 2017 contract).
The Cubs have not put together consistent total games together all season. The Cubs are mired in a .500 record by playing like an average team. The Montero release is not a turning point in the season but evidence of the open, bleeding sore that is the 2017 season.
Some believe that Maddon lost his position as leader during Game 7 of the World Series. The players only meeting led by Jason Heyward was meant to show the world that the players could win the game in spite of their manager's questionable moves. Maybe Maddon's happy talk and laid back behavior has worn thin with the roster. The players certainly have not shown the drive to succeed like they did last year. The off-season was filled with celebration, admiration and endorsement deals. The Cubs basked in their great accomplishment to the detriment of this season's preparation.
Now with nagging injuries cropping up around the team, and objective performance stats waning on all fronts, the front office is also walking on egg shells. The expectation of ownership and fans was high - - - to repeat the World Series. Ricketts have poured millions into the Wrigley Field experience but if the Cubs tank this year, that investment is at risk.
Montero being released so quickly is a symptom of a greater Cub problem. He may just be the first man in the lifeboat in a sinking season.
Runners can get a good jump on him.
Miguel Montero is an average catcher with a below average throw out ratio
of runners trying to steal.
Of course, that is a bad combo. And the Nationals stole a team record 7 bases last night to prove it.
So after the game, Montero goes off and blames Arrieta for the 7 steals (even though one of his throws bounced 20 feet in front of second.)
Anthony Rizzo publicly blasts Montero's comments as being "unprofessional."
Normally, these spats are kept behind clubhouse doors. But it shows that the 2016 Happy Happy Cubs clubhouse is not that cheery anymore. One incident sparked a wild fire explosion which quickly led to the front office designating Montero for assignment. Players must have been walking on egg shells for the underwhelming performance for one rant to turn into a job termination bullet.
That means the Cubs have 10 days to trade him (like they did this week with LHP Rosscup) or Montero becomes a free agent (and the Cubs must pay the remaining balance on his large 2017 contract).
The Cubs have not put together consistent total games together all season. The Cubs are mired in a .500 record by playing like an average team. The Montero release is not a turning point in the season but evidence of the open, bleeding sore that is the 2017 season.
Some believe that Maddon lost his position as leader during Game 7 of the World Series. The players only meeting led by Jason Heyward was meant to show the world that the players could win the game in spite of their manager's questionable moves. Maybe Maddon's happy talk and laid back behavior has worn thin with the roster. The players certainly have not shown the drive to succeed like they did last year. The off-season was filled with celebration, admiration and endorsement deals. The Cubs basked in their great accomplishment to the detriment of this season's preparation.
Now with nagging injuries cropping up around the team, and objective performance stats waning on all fronts, the front office is also walking on egg shells. The expectation of ownership and fans was high - - - to repeat the World Series. Ricketts have poured millions into the Wrigley Field experience but if the Cubs tank this year, that investment is at risk.
Montero being released so quickly is a symptom of a greater Cub problem. He may just be the first man in the lifeboat in a sinking season.
May 23, 2016
THE CALL UP
The Cubs offense has become dormant.
I could not watch yesterday's Rizzo's at-bats. He was swinging at pitches while on his knees.
His form is his rookie season Padre bad. He needs to take a day off to clear his head, but the Cubs roster does not have a real back up plan (Baez is not the answer).
When Szczur came off the DL (and Heyward did not go on the DL), the Cubs made the move of designating for assignment relief pitcher Ramirez. This move kept three catchers on the roster. That signals that Montero is not fully healthy (since Ross caught two games in a row). Keeping a marginal emergency third catcher with no offense/OBP is not helping scoring runs.
The call-up needed is Iowa 1B Dan Vogelbach.
He has hit some monster home runs in his sixth minor league season. In 39 games, he has hit .319, 7 HR and 31 RBI. He only has played first base which limits what he can go on the major league roster.
But Kyle Schwarber's surprise promotion did spark the 2015 Cubs. The current Cubs need some sort of instant offense capability since the line up is currently in a collective funk.
The only other option would be catcher Wilson Contreras, but the front office is adamant about not starting service time on him. Contreras, 24, is in his 8th minor league season. He is currently hitting .328, 3 HR, 20 RBI in 37 games. He has played catcher, first base, third base and left field. He would fit the Maddon versatility mold.
Theo Epstein predicted last week the Cubs were going to have a slow, sluggish period. Well, the Cubs are in that rut. The Cubs need to find some offense quickly of the hot start and comfortable lead in the NL Central can evaporate.
I could not watch yesterday's Rizzo's at-bats. He was swinging at pitches while on his knees.
His form is his rookie season Padre bad. He needs to take a day off to clear his head, but the Cubs roster does not have a real back up plan (Baez is not the answer).
When Szczur came off the DL (and Heyward did not go on the DL), the Cubs made the move of designating for assignment relief pitcher Ramirez. This move kept three catchers on the roster. That signals that Montero is not fully healthy (since Ross caught two games in a row). Keeping a marginal emergency third catcher with no offense/OBP is not helping scoring runs.
The call-up needed is Iowa 1B Dan Vogelbach.
He has hit some monster home runs in his sixth minor league season. In 39 games, he has hit .319, 7 HR and 31 RBI. He only has played first base which limits what he can go on the major league roster.
But Kyle Schwarber's surprise promotion did spark the 2015 Cubs. The current Cubs need some sort of instant offense capability since the line up is currently in a collective funk.
The only other option would be catcher Wilson Contreras, but the front office is adamant about not starting service time on him. Contreras, 24, is in his 8th minor league season. He is currently hitting .328, 3 HR, 20 RBI in 37 games. He has played catcher, first base, third base and left field. He would fit the Maddon versatility mold.
Theo Epstein predicted last week the Cubs were going to have a slow, sluggish period. Well, the Cubs are in that rut. The Cubs need to find some offense quickly of the hot start and comfortable lead in the NL Central can evaporate.
October 5, 2015
THE CUBS SEASON WAR
The 2015 Cubs surprised the world by going 97-65. They ended 20 games better than my pre-season prediction. The Pythagorean record for the Cubs this year was 90-72. I equate the difference in manager Joe Maddon, who would get a 7.0 WAR, for his unique style of getting a team of veterans and youngsters to gel in such a short period of time.
But the Cubs team was really dominated by their starting players, with three who really carried the team on their backs and into the playoffs.
Regular season position players/WAR:
Montero, c 1.8
Rizzo, lf 6.3
Russell, ss 3.4
Castro, 2b 0.7
Bryant, 3b 6.0
Coghlan, lf 1.9
Fowler, cf 2.2
Soler, rf (0.1)
Position starters totaled 22.2 WAR of the team total 23.3 WAR, or 95.3% of total offense WAR.
Regular season starting pitchers and closer/WAR:
Arrieta, sp 8.6
Lester, sp 2.9
Hendricks, sp 1.7
Hammel, sp 1.6
Haren, sp 0.2
Rondon, cl 2.1
These key pitchers totalled 17.1 WAR of the team total 18.5 WAR or 92.4% of total pitching WAR.
Arrieta's individual WAR was 50.3 % of the total team pitching WAR.
Rizzo's individual WAR was 27% of the total team offense WAR.
Bryant's individual WAR was 25.75% of the total team offense WAR.
Arrieta, Rizzo and Bryant carried more than half their position team WAR.
Combined, these three players had 50% of total team WAR.
But the Cubs team was really dominated by their starting players, with three who really carried the team on their backs and into the playoffs.
Regular season position players/WAR:
Montero, c 1.8
Rizzo, lf 6.3
Russell, ss 3.4
Castro, 2b 0.7
Bryant, 3b 6.0
Coghlan, lf 1.9
Fowler, cf 2.2
Soler, rf (0.1)
Position starters totaled 22.2 WAR of the team total 23.3 WAR, or 95.3% of total offense WAR.
Regular season starting pitchers and closer/WAR:
Arrieta, sp 8.6
Lester, sp 2.9
Hendricks, sp 1.7
Hammel, sp 1.6
Haren, sp 0.2
Rondon, cl 2.1
These key pitchers totalled 17.1 WAR of the team total 18.5 WAR or 92.4% of total pitching WAR.
Arrieta's individual WAR was 50.3 % of the total team pitching WAR.
Rizzo's individual WAR was 27% of the total team offense WAR.
Bryant's individual WAR was 25.75% of the total team offense WAR.
Arrieta, Rizzo and Bryant carried more than half their position team WAR.
Combined, these three players had 50% of total team WAR.
March 19, 2015
WHO'S IN SECOND?
The curious part of Joe Maddon's spring training routine has been his batting orders. They are all over the place. But one oddity keeps cropping up: batting Anthony Rizzo in the #2 spot.
Traditionally, No. 2 hitters have great bat control, patience to coax a walk and can bunt, move runners over and get on base with their speed.
However, Sabermetric diehards favor putting the best batters in that position because No. 2 hitters typically get 18 more at-bats per season than the player batting third.
The purpose of constructing a batting order to put players in the best position to create run scoring opportunities. One puts good hitting, on base hitters ahead of power hitters. It adds to the chance of scoring multiple runs with one swing of the bat. “The whole point is to feed the guys that drive in points,” Maddon said. “That’s what the whole thing is — who feeds that, and who’s the guy that, if you have a productive bottom part of the batting order, who takes advantage of that?”
So far, Maddon has placed Rizzo, believed to be the best consistent hitter in the regular line up, five times in the second slot. Reserve outfielder Chris Denorfia has batted second four times and utilityman Arismendy Alcantara twice. Last season, Alcantara batted second 14 times while playing CF, a position he lost to current leadoff man Dexter Fowler.
Javy Baez led the Cubs last season with 52 starts there, but his high strike out profile forces Maddon to put him down the lineup.
By putting Rizzo in the second slot, Maddon has been penciling in Starlin Castro in the third spot. Castro does not do very well batting third. Some say that Castro's best spot is leadoff, like his mentor Alfonso Soriano, because he would see more fast balls. Castro has spent most of his career batting second, so why fix something that is not broken?
The one thing that needs to happen soon (with less than three weeks to Opening Night) is for Maddon to settle on a set line up card. Players prefer to have a set order so they can prepare their roles in advance of game day. A player is a creature of habit.
It would seem the final lineup card could look like this:
1. Fowler cf
2. Castro ss
3. Rizzo 1b
4. Soler rf
5. Montero c
6. Coghlan lf
7. Olt 3b
8. LaStella/Alcantara 2b
9. Pitcher
This line up presupposes that Baez goes down to Iowa to work on his strike out issues. If not, he flips the order with Coghlan at #6. When Bryant is called up, he goes to clean up and the rest of the order moves down a slot.
Traditionally, No. 2 hitters have great bat control, patience to coax a walk and can bunt, move runners over and get on base with their speed.
However, Sabermetric diehards favor putting the best batters in that position because No. 2 hitters typically get 18 more at-bats per season than the player batting third.
The purpose of constructing a batting order to put players in the best position to create run scoring opportunities. One puts good hitting, on base hitters ahead of power hitters. It adds to the chance of scoring multiple runs with one swing of the bat. “The whole point is to feed the guys that drive in points,” Maddon said. “That’s what the whole thing is — who feeds that, and who’s the guy that, if you have a productive bottom part of the batting order, who takes advantage of that?”
So far, Maddon has placed Rizzo, believed to be the best consistent hitter in the regular line up, five times in the second slot. Reserve outfielder Chris Denorfia has batted second four times and utilityman Arismendy Alcantara twice. Last season, Alcantara batted second 14 times while playing CF, a position he lost to current leadoff man Dexter Fowler.
Javy Baez led the Cubs last season with 52 starts there, but his high strike out profile forces Maddon to put him down the lineup.
By putting Rizzo in the second slot, Maddon has been penciling in Starlin Castro in the third spot. Castro does not do very well batting third. Some say that Castro's best spot is leadoff, like his mentor Alfonso Soriano, because he would see more fast balls. Castro has spent most of his career batting second, so why fix something that is not broken?
The one thing that needs to happen soon (with less than three weeks to Opening Night) is for Maddon to settle on a set line up card. Players prefer to have a set order so they can prepare their roles in advance of game day. A player is a creature of habit.
It would seem the final lineup card could look like this:
1. Fowler cf
2. Castro ss
3. Rizzo 1b
4. Soler rf
5. Montero c
6. Coghlan lf
7. Olt 3b
8. LaStella/Alcantara 2b
9. Pitcher
This line up presupposes that Baez goes down to Iowa to work on his strike out issues. If not, he flips the order with Coghlan at #6. When Bryant is called up, he goes to clean up and the rest of the order moves down a slot.
September 5, 2014
REBOUNDS
Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo's seasons are all but over due to injury. Castro caused a high ankle sprain when he stumbled a slide into home plate. Rizzo has been having back soreness/tightness. Of the two injuries, Rizzo seems to be more troublesome long term.
But most believe that Castro and Rizzo's 2014 seasons were good "bounce back" years.
Castro:
2013: .245 BA, 10 HR, 44 RBI, .284 OBP, -0.6 WAR
2014: .292 BA, 14 HR, 65 RBI, .292 OBP, 2.1 WAR
Rizzo:
2013: .233 BA, 23 HR, 80 RBI, .323 OBP, 2.8 WAR
2014: .278 BA, 30 HR, 71 RBI , .375 OBP, 3.8 WAR
Both players increased their batting averages by more than 40 points.
Both players increased their home run totals.
Both players increased their on-base percentages.
While Castro's defense improved from .967 to .973 fielding percentage,
Rizzo's went down from .997 to .993. Both players have a better fielding reputation
than from observation (range, mental errors, out of position sets, etc.) But most
fans think their defense is adequate for the offensive production they create.
With better hitters around them in the line-up, one could hope that Castro and Rizzo will have better years in 2015. But nothing is a guarantee.
There will be injuries to take care of. There will be the added pressure to win (something that has been lacking the past several seasons). They will have the added exposure to be team leaders, and be more media savvy as the bandwagon begins to re-fill with believers.
But most believe that Castro and Rizzo's 2014 seasons were good "bounce back" years.
Castro:
2013: .245 BA, 10 HR, 44 RBI, .284 OBP, -0.6 WAR
2014: .292 BA, 14 HR, 65 RBI, .292 OBP, 2.1 WAR
Rizzo:
2013: .233 BA, 23 HR, 80 RBI, .323 OBP, 2.8 WAR
2014: .278 BA, 30 HR, 71 RBI , .375 OBP, 3.8 WAR
Both players increased their batting averages by more than 40 points.
Both players increased their home run totals.
Both players increased their on-base percentages.
While Castro's defense improved from .967 to .973 fielding percentage,
Rizzo's went down from .997 to .993. Both players have a better fielding reputation
than from observation (range, mental errors, out of position sets, etc.) But most
fans think their defense is adequate for the offensive production they create.
With better hitters around them in the line-up, one could hope that Castro and Rizzo will have better years in 2015. But nothing is a guarantee.
There will be injuries to take care of. There will be the added pressure to win (something that has been lacking the past several seasons). They will have the added exposure to be team leaders, and be more media savvy as the bandwagon begins to re-fill with believers.
July 14, 2014
ALL STAR BREAK
The Cubs have had three All-Stars this year.
Jeff Samardzija counts, but since he was traded to Oakland, is not on the NL roster.
Starlin Castro was put on the NL roster, and Anthony Rizzo was voted in by the supplemental ballot.
In theory, these are the teams best players. In fact, the Cubs traded away 1/3 of the best players this season in another hopeful trade for the future.
Baseball America has four Cubs in its Midseason Top 50 Prospects list.
At number 2, Kris Bryant. We are all aware that Bryant has hit at every level in the minors. He is currently at AAA Iowa, with management telling fans that there is no chance that he will be promoted this year.
At number 5, newly acquired Addison Russell. This shortstop has missed most the season with injuries, but BA and other scouting organizations believe Russell was on the fast track within the A's organization to make the majors in 2015. The Cubs have put him in Class AA which tracks more towards a debut in 2016.
At number 7, Javy Baez, who was the unanimous top Cub prospect until Bryant was drafted. Baez is at AAA Iowa, and he has had an uneven season so far but shows the flashes of the power bat.
At number 33, infielder Arismendy Alcantara. Ironically, the lowest level top prospect made it to the majors first. Alcantara has raised eyebrows by his hitting and speed. In only 5 games, he is hitting .391, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 6 runs scored and a 0.7 WAR. Many believe Darwin Barney should be Wally Pipped to allow Alcantara to play the rest of the season at second base.
The team may want fans to believe that the other Cub prospects will have the same type of smashing debuts as Alcantara, but that performance is rare.
The Cubs sit at the bottom of the NL Central with a record of 40-54. The team is on pace for a 93 loss season. The Alcantara call up gives a temporary jolt in the "we got great prospects coming up" story line, but it won't hold fan attention for very long.
Jeff Samardzija counts, but since he was traded to Oakland, is not on the NL roster.
Starlin Castro was put on the NL roster, and Anthony Rizzo was voted in by the supplemental ballot.
In theory, these are the teams best players. In fact, the Cubs traded away 1/3 of the best players this season in another hopeful trade for the future.
Baseball America has four Cubs in its Midseason Top 50 Prospects list.
At number 2, Kris Bryant. We are all aware that Bryant has hit at every level in the minors. He is currently at AAA Iowa, with management telling fans that there is no chance that he will be promoted this year.
At number 5, newly acquired Addison Russell. This shortstop has missed most the season with injuries, but BA and other scouting organizations believe Russell was on the fast track within the A's organization to make the majors in 2015. The Cubs have put him in Class AA which tracks more towards a debut in 2016.
At number 7, Javy Baez, who was the unanimous top Cub prospect until Bryant was drafted. Baez is at AAA Iowa, and he has had an uneven season so far but shows the flashes of the power bat.
At number 33, infielder Arismendy Alcantara. Ironically, the lowest level top prospect made it to the majors first. Alcantara has raised eyebrows by his hitting and speed. In only 5 games, he is hitting .391, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 6 runs scored and a 0.7 WAR. Many believe Darwin Barney should be Wally Pipped to allow Alcantara to play the rest of the season at second base.
The team may want fans to believe that the other Cub prospects will have the same type of smashing debuts as Alcantara, but that performance is rare.
The Cubs sit at the bottom of the NL Central with a record of 40-54. The team is on pace for a 93 loss season. The Alcantara call up gives a temporary jolt in the "we got great prospects coming up" story line, but it won't hold fan attention for very long.
June 2, 2014
SICK
Apparently, there are never enough cooks to spoil a PR disaster.
Before Milwaukee's opening game thumping of the Cubs, Anthony Rizzo spoke to reporters. He said he was sick about talking about the stalled Wrigley Field rebuilding plans.
“They told us, again, that we were going to get approved and it didn’t get approved,” Rizzo said to CSNChicago reporter. “So I know a lot of guys are not happy about that. It’s kind of a shame, because we get excited about it.
“They’re working their tails off. But, again, it got shut down. It’s kind of a bummer, because we all thought it was going to happen. And now it’s kind of just wait-and-see.”
Except, Rizzo is dead wrong in his assessment of the situation. It is one thing to parrot the corporate line, it is another to understand it.
"They" must mean the Cubs executives, who have been "working their tails off" to get construction going but "got shot down."
Except, it is the Cubs who derailed their own plans.
The Cubs massive real estate development project was APPROVED last year by the city. Construction was supposed to start LAST YEAR.
But Ricketts and management failed to start the work. The Cubs blocked the Cubs on this point.
And it is naive to say that the new plans which significantly alter the old plans would be "rubber stamped" by the city because the new features are needed by the Cubs. All the brick and ivy at Wrigley is landmarked, meaning that it cannot be changed because it is the historical feature of the ball park. The brick and ivy is Wrigley Field. To alter or destroy the outfield walls destroys the iconic state of Wrigley Field. Why ownership wants to blow up the charm of Wrigley is simple: money. The obsession for new revenue streams means blowing up the past on the non-guaranteed hope for the future.
Why Rizzo and the players would be unhappy with the Cubs not getting the city and neighborhood to roll over and play dead is odd. Unless the players were promised more money from the new revenue streams or they think the payroll will skyrocket, it is only selfish desire for money . . . so there is the synch with ownership. But just to get a better clubhouse and work out facilities . . . again, the Cubs did not need anyone's approval to do that work. Ricketts just refused to do any work because of the threat of a lawsuit his people say he will easily win.
Rizzo may be sick of the politics of the Wrigleyville construction projects, but the fans are sick about the state of the Cubs team. The Cubs are the worst team in the majors. The Cubs have become unwatchable. People are tuning the Cubs out faster than ever before; work men may be able to do the actual construction during games because no one will be around to care about any obstructed views.
Yesterday, Rizzo had a meltdown at home plate during the Brewer series finale. He was called out on a well framed pitch. He went after the umpire (the Cubs were down at this point) and was ejected from the game. He had to be restrained . . . . which is a surprise for one of the young "core" leaders of the club. Rizzo's ejection did not cost the Cubs the game per se, but if one cannot control one's emotions that will hurt the team (i.e., Mike Olt replaced him at first).
Maybe Samardzijaism - - - sick of losing - - - has finally caught up with Rizzo.
Before Milwaukee's opening game thumping of the Cubs, Anthony Rizzo spoke to reporters. He said he was sick about talking about the stalled Wrigley Field rebuilding plans.
“They told us, again, that we were going to get approved and it didn’t get approved,” Rizzo said to CSNChicago reporter. “So I know a lot of guys are not happy about that. It’s kind of a shame, because we get excited about it.
“They’re working their tails off. But, again, it got shut down. It’s kind of a bummer, because we all thought it was going to happen. And now it’s kind of just wait-and-see.”
Except, Rizzo is dead wrong in his assessment of the situation. It is one thing to parrot the corporate line, it is another to understand it.
"They" must mean the Cubs executives, who have been "working their tails off" to get construction going but "got shot down."
Except, it is the Cubs who derailed their own plans.
The Cubs massive real estate development project was APPROVED last year by the city. Construction was supposed to start LAST YEAR.
But Ricketts and management failed to start the work. The Cubs blocked the Cubs on this point.
And it is naive to say that the new plans which significantly alter the old plans would be "rubber stamped" by the city because the new features are needed by the Cubs. All the brick and ivy at Wrigley is landmarked, meaning that it cannot be changed because it is the historical feature of the ball park. The brick and ivy is Wrigley Field. To alter or destroy the outfield walls destroys the iconic state of Wrigley Field. Why ownership wants to blow up the charm of Wrigley is simple: money. The obsession for new revenue streams means blowing up the past on the non-guaranteed hope for the future.
Why Rizzo and the players would be unhappy with the Cubs not getting the city and neighborhood to roll over and play dead is odd. Unless the players were promised more money from the new revenue streams or they think the payroll will skyrocket, it is only selfish desire for money . . . so there is the synch with ownership. But just to get a better clubhouse and work out facilities . . . again, the Cubs did not need anyone's approval to do that work. Ricketts just refused to do any work because of the threat of a lawsuit his people say he will easily win.
Rizzo may be sick of the politics of the Wrigleyville construction projects, but the fans are sick about the state of the Cubs team. The Cubs are the worst team in the majors. The Cubs have become unwatchable. People are tuning the Cubs out faster than ever before; work men may be able to do the actual construction during games because no one will be around to care about any obstructed views.
Yesterday, Rizzo had a meltdown at home plate during the Brewer series finale. He was called out on a well framed pitch. He went after the umpire (the Cubs were down at this point) and was ejected from the game. He had to be restrained . . . . which is a surprise for one of the young "core" leaders of the club. Rizzo's ejection did not cost the Cubs the game per se, but if one cannot control one's emotions that will hurt the team (i.e., Mike Olt replaced him at first).
Maybe Samardzijaism - - - sick of losing - - - has finally caught up with Rizzo.
March 4, 2014
LINE UP CONSTRUCTION
There are various theories on how a manager should construct his line up card.
A group of statisticians and sabermetric guys have proposed that the numbers show that:
A. Lefty/right platoon situations do work. Right handed hitters hit lefty pitchers better; and vice versa.
B. High on-base percentage players are more valuable than free swingers (i.e. hitters who cannot get on base by walk or hit-by-pitch).
C. Team speed at critical positions is important to avoid double plays (which destroys run production opportunities).
The two critical stats in their minds are
OBP = (hits + walks+ hit by pitches)/plate appearances
OPS = OBP + (total bases/at bats)
There is a theory that this is the format for a good National League line up:
1. Lead off hitter should be the highest OBP hitter on the team.
2. Second hitter should be the second highest OBP hitter, preferable with speed to avoid double plays.
3. The third hitter should be the highest OPS hitter on the team.
4. The clean up hitter should be the second highest OPS hitter on the team. The #3 and #4 hitters are the main gears in driving in runs.
5. The fifth hitter should be the third highest OBP hitter or third highest OPS hitter if statistically close.
6. The sixth hitter should be the third or fourth highest OPS hitter on the team.
7. The seventh batter should be the best OPS starter left.
8. The eighth hitter should be the best OBP starter left, so that the pitcher in the #9 slot can sacrifice him into scoring position to have the best hitters on the team come up at the top of the order.
On the other hand, shouldn't the best line up card have the best hitters at the top of the order?
If the key stat is OPS (which incorporates OBP into the formula),
the true meaning of OPS can be condensed as follows:
OPS = H/SF + TB/AB
A random player is chosen to discuss: Starlin Castro.
In 2013, he played in 161 games. He had a .245 BA, .284 OBP and .631 OPS. He hit 10 HR, 44 RBI and 9 SB with a negative 0.6 WAR.
Castro's 2013 condensed OPS = 163 H/1SF + 231 TB/666AB
Castro's condensed OPS = 163 77/222.
What jumps out is that this result nearly matches Castro's HIT total.
In 2013, Anthony Rizzo played in 160 games. By comparison, he hit .233 BA, .323 OBP, .724 OPS with 23 HR, 80 RBI, 6 SB and 2.6 WAR. By all measures, Rizzo had a better season than Castro.
Rizzo's 2013 condensed OPS = 141 H/2SF + 254 TB/606AB
Rizzo's condensed OPS = 70 557/606
What jumps out is that this number is nearly one-half of Rizzo's hit total (which is skewered by the fact he had one more sacrifice fly than Castro did).
If you believe that a sacrifice is a "productive out," then it should not have so much negative drag in judging a player's offensive production.
Statistics can be manipulated to achieve certain results. Baseball is another example of trying to glean a bigger pitcher from smaller quantitative analysis of putting game action into numbers.
But one cannot lose simple common sense. In order to have the best line up, the key statistic for all hitters is HITS. The team's best hitters should be at the top of the order.
Based on last year's stats, the 2013 Cubs order should have been:
1. Castro, ss 163
2. Rizzo, 1b, 141
3. Schierholtz, rf, 116
4. Castillo, c, 104
5. Barney, 2b, 104
6. Soriano, lf, 92
7. Valbuena 3b 72
8. DeJesus, cf, 71
A group of statisticians and sabermetric guys have proposed that the numbers show that:
A. Lefty/right platoon situations do work. Right handed hitters hit lefty pitchers better; and vice versa.
B. High on-base percentage players are more valuable than free swingers (i.e. hitters who cannot get on base by walk or hit-by-pitch).
C. Team speed at critical positions is important to avoid double plays (which destroys run production opportunities).
The two critical stats in their minds are
OBP = (hits + walks+ hit by pitches)/plate appearances
OPS = OBP + (total bases/at bats)
There is a theory that this is the format for a good National League line up:
1. Lead off hitter should be the highest OBP hitter on the team.
2. Second hitter should be the second highest OBP hitter, preferable with speed to avoid double plays.
3. The third hitter should be the highest OPS hitter on the team.
4. The clean up hitter should be the second highest OPS hitter on the team. The #3 and #4 hitters are the main gears in driving in runs.
5. The fifth hitter should be the third highest OBP hitter or third highest OPS hitter if statistically close.
6. The sixth hitter should be the third or fourth highest OPS hitter on the team.
7. The seventh batter should be the best OPS starter left.
8. The eighth hitter should be the best OBP starter left, so that the pitcher in the #9 slot can sacrifice him into scoring position to have the best hitters on the team come up at the top of the order.
On the other hand, shouldn't the best line up card have the best hitters at the top of the order?
If the key stat is OPS (which incorporates OBP into the formula),
the true meaning of OPS can be condensed as follows:
OPS = H/SF + TB/AB
A random player is chosen to discuss: Starlin Castro.
In 2013, he played in 161 games. He had a .245 BA, .284 OBP and .631 OPS. He hit 10 HR, 44 RBI and 9 SB with a negative 0.6 WAR.
Castro's 2013 condensed OPS = 163 H/1SF + 231 TB/666AB
Castro's condensed OPS = 163 77/222.
What jumps out is that this result nearly matches Castro's HIT total.
In 2013, Anthony Rizzo played in 160 games. By comparison, he hit .233 BA, .323 OBP, .724 OPS with 23 HR, 80 RBI, 6 SB and 2.6 WAR. By all measures, Rizzo had a better season than Castro.
Rizzo's 2013 condensed OPS = 141 H/2SF + 254 TB/606AB
Rizzo's condensed OPS = 70 557/606
What jumps out is that this number is nearly one-half of Rizzo's hit total (which is skewered by the fact he had one more sacrifice fly than Castro did).
If you believe that a sacrifice is a "productive out," then it should not have so much negative drag in judging a player's offensive production.
Statistics can be manipulated to achieve certain results. Baseball is another example of trying to glean a bigger pitcher from smaller quantitative analysis of putting game action into numbers.
But one cannot lose simple common sense. In order to have the best line up, the key statistic for all hitters is HITS. The team's best hitters should be at the top of the order.
Based on last year's stats, the 2013 Cubs order should have been:
1. Castro, ss 163
2. Rizzo, 1b, 141
3. Schierholtz, rf, 116
4. Castillo, c, 104
5. Barney, 2b, 104
6. Soriano, lf, 92
7. Valbuena 3b 72
8. DeJesus, cf, 71
February 27, 2014
LEADERSHIP
The Cubs have asked Anthony Rizzo take a leadership role when the young prospects hit camp and make it to the major league roster. Rizzo is inclined to help his team out. He understands that the front office has made him one of their "core" players for the future. But being told to be a leader, and actually being one, are two different things.
Leadership and clubhouse chemistry are hard concepts to quantify in major league sports. There have been some teams where players hated each other, like the Bill Martin Yankees, but still won. There were some teams where the players hated management or ownership, like the Finley Oakland A's or the Black Sox, but still won. A little team edge can be helpful at times.
On the other side, bad chemistry can be a disaster. A prime example is the 2004 Cubs, who imploded in September in a vile rants against even their own broadcasters. Losing has a cascade effect on some players - - - who lose focus, then seek to blame others for their poor performance.
There are two types of sports leaders. First, is the rah-rah, talkative, inspirational leader. This is the kind of guy who does not have to be the best player on the team, but he is the one with the most passion to win. They speak their mind, call out their teammates, help younger players and calm clubhouse incidents before they get out of control. Organizations cannot teach that type of assertive personality. You have to be born with it. A.J. Pierzynski is a recent example of an on-field, take charge player who led by example and who was not afraid to speak his mind.
Second, is the leader by example. Other players will listen or follow a successful player because those players want to be as successful. The mindset is that if that player is so good, I need to learn what he is doing so I can be as good. This is especially true for young prospects who need some guidance from a successful veteran that has dealt with the stress, slumps, disappointments and successes early in one's career. Greg Maddux was a quiet leader who knew his stuff and shared his knowledge with young pitchers.
From all accounts, Rizzo is a nice guy. But he is not an outspoken agenda setter. And his performance on the field has been not up to expectations. Losing season after losing season will slowly permeate his leadership Q like smokey bacon wrapped around a grilling hot dog. Players want to win, but at a certain point in time, they can learn to accept losing because there are little to no adverse consequences to their individual careers.
The problem is that no matter who is left when the Almoras, Brandts, Edwards arrive at Wrigley, it is possible that the Cub veterans may have played their entire careers on losing, noncompetitive baseball teams.
Leadership and clubhouse chemistry are hard concepts to quantify in major league sports. There have been some teams where players hated each other, like the Bill Martin Yankees, but still won. There were some teams where the players hated management or ownership, like the Finley Oakland A's or the Black Sox, but still won. A little team edge can be helpful at times.
On the other side, bad chemistry can be a disaster. A prime example is the 2004 Cubs, who imploded in September in a vile rants against even their own broadcasters. Losing has a cascade effect on some players - - - who lose focus, then seek to blame others for their poor performance.
There are two types of sports leaders. First, is the rah-rah, talkative, inspirational leader. This is the kind of guy who does not have to be the best player on the team, but he is the one with the most passion to win. They speak their mind, call out their teammates, help younger players and calm clubhouse incidents before they get out of control. Organizations cannot teach that type of assertive personality. You have to be born with it. A.J. Pierzynski is a recent example of an on-field, take charge player who led by example and who was not afraid to speak his mind.
Second, is the leader by example. Other players will listen or follow a successful player because those players want to be as successful. The mindset is that if that player is so good, I need to learn what he is doing so I can be as good. This is especially true for young prospects who need some guidance from a successful veteran that has dealt with the stress, slumps, disappointments and successes early in one's career. Greg Maddux was a quiet leader who knew his stuff and shared his knowledge with young pitchers.
From all accounts, Rizzo is a nice guy. But he is not an outspoken agenda setter. And his performance on the field has been not up to expectations. Losing season after losing season will slowly permeate his leadership Q like smokey bacon wrapped around a grilling hot dog. Players want to win, but at a certain point in time, they can learn to accept losing because there are little to no adverse consequences to their individual careers.
The problem is that no matter who is left when the Almoras, Brandts, Edwards arrive at Wrigley, it is possible that the Cub veterans may have played their entire careers on losing, noncompetitive baseball teams.
February 14, 2014
RIZZOWORLD
A post-season review of Cubs starter Anthony Rizzo has turned as harsh as the Chicago winter.
Matthew Pouliot of Rotoworld opined that Rizzo was one of the majors most "over rated" first basemen:
Numbers don't lie. And the fact that the Cubs are a bad team does not help a middle of the line up hitter's production.
However, Rizzo has put up a 2.4 WAR (2012) and 2.6 WAR (2013) which are solid starter numbers. He has hit 39 HR and driven in 137 RBI as a Cub which an average 19.5 HR and 68.5 RBI. People expect 30 HR and 100 RBI seasons from Rizzo, which means that he would have to increase his offensive production by 46 to 54 percent in order to attain those goals. In order to do that, the Cubs team would have to increase its team on-base percentage by a similar amount in order for Rizzo to have base runners in front of him and the ability to see better pitches. Currently, the Cubs have no lead off or number two hitter to set the table, or a solid #4 threat to protect Rizzo in the third slot in the order. One solution is to move Starlin Castro to lead off and let him swing away. However, that move creates Castro as a mini-Soriano, which may not be a good thing over the long term.
Matthew Pouliot of Rotoworld opined that Rizzo was one of the majors most "over rated" first basemen:
Anthony Rizzo -- Cubs - I didn't think I was down on Rizzo, but he has an average
draft position of 101 at Yahoo so far, while I place him 157th in the
top 300. On the one hand, it looks like quite a fluke that Rizzo hit
just .233 last season, given his obvious power and the fact that his
strikeout rate was below the league average. Still, I think he's more of
a .260-.270 guy than someone likely to hit .280-.290. Also, he has a
really crummy lineup around him again. The Cubs got OBPs of .321 and
.310 from the top two spots in the lineup ahead of Rizzo last year, and
they've done nothing to upgrade over the winter. Actually, they've most
likely downgraded, since David DeJesus had a .341 OBP in his 66 games as
a leadoff man last season. I have Rizzo posting the same kind of OPS as
guys ahead of him like Eric Hosmer, Morales and Mike Napoli, but I
expect him to lag behind all of those guys in RBI.
Numbers don't lie. And the fact that the Cubs are a bad team does not help a middle of the line up hitter's production.
However, Rizzo has put up a 2.4 WAR (2012) and 2.6 WAR (2013) which are solid starter numbers. He has hit 39 HR and driven in 137 RBI as a Cub which an average 19.5 HR and 68.5 RBI. People expect 30 HR and 100 RBI seasons from Rizzo, which means that he would have to increase his offensive production by 46 to 54 percent in order to attain those goals. In order to do that, the Cubs team would have to increase its team on-base percentage by a similar amount in order for Rizzo to have base runners in front of him and the ability to see better pitches. Currently, the Cubs have no lead off or number two hitter to set the table, or a solid #4 threat to protect Rizzo in the third slot in the order. One solution is to move Starlin Castro to lead off and let him swing away. However, that move creates Castro as a mini-Soriano, which may not be a good thing over the long term.
October 31, 2013
August 23, 2013
WAITING FOR A LIFE RAFT
Dale Sveum has been called a homeless man wearing a nice warm up jacket. This week he lamented that he was just going to try to get through the last five weeks of the season. There are not many major league assets to use. There are no supermagical winning streaks in the dugout.
Sveum did a 180 by taking demoted Castro from the 8th spot in the lineup to lead off. It was to put less pressure on Castro, but in some respects it adds to the kid's thinking process because lead off hitters are expected to do certain things: walk, bunt, get on base, steal bases.
Sveum also moved Rizzo to the #2 spot in the order to take the pressure off the young hitter that goes with the 3, 4 and 5 slots. But really, how much different would Rizzo be in the second slot? He has not shown the consistence of being able to hit and run, give himself up to move runners along, or drive balls into the gaps for extra bases.
In reality, Sveum is now using the final weeks of the season as prequel spring training. He is managing like spring training, moving players to the top of the order to get more at-bats. It is a surrender to the reality that this is another lost season for the Cubs, whom are wavering between the 5th and 6th worst record in baseball.
Castro did nothing special leading off against the Nats. Rizzo did have two home runs which was an unexpected change of pace. But both players are stuck in the low .240s BA with large holes in their swings. They have been treading water most of the season. Now that Sveum has called a seasonal time out, maybe the pressure will be finally off the youngsters to "not think" about their performance and just go out and play baseball. That is basically what Castro told reporters before his lead off assignment; that there are too many voices in his head - - - he really only needs to be himself. One would have thought he could have come to that conclusion months ago, but better late than never.
Sveum did a 180 by taking demoted Castro from the 8th spot in the lineup to lead off. It was to put less pressure on Castro, but in some respects it adds to the kid's thinking process because lead off hitters are expected to do certain things: walk, bunt, get on base, steal bases.
Sveum also moved Rizzo to the #2 spot in the order to take the pressure off the young hitter that goes with the 3, 4 and 5 slots. But really, how much different would Rizzo be in the second slot? He has not shown the consistence of being able to hit and run, give himself up to move runners along, or drive balls into the gaps for extra bases.
In reality, Sveum is now using the final weeks of the season as prequel spring training. He is managing like spring training, moving players to the top of the order to get more at-bats. It is a surrender to the reality that this is another lost season for the Cubs, whom are wavering between the 5th and 6th worst record in baseball.
Castro did nothing special leading off against the Nats. Rizzo did have two home runs which was an unexpected change of pace. But both players are stuck in the low .240s BA with large holes in their swings. They have been treading water most of the season. Now that Sveum has called a seasonal time out, maybe the pressure will be finally off the youngsters to "not think" about their performance and just go out and play baseball. That is basically what Castro told reporters before his lead off assignment; that there are too many voices in his head - - - he really only needs to be himself. One would have thought he could have come to that conclusion months ago, but better late than never.
August 22, 2013
IS CASTRO BROKEN?
New National David DeJesus was asked about Starlin Castro's recent problems. He told reporters that Castro needs to become a club house leader, "on and off the field." The "off the field" comment was quite puzzling, especially from a recent teammate.
Castro came to the big leagues out of necessity. He has a quick free swinging bat that could handle major league pitching. The Cubs were about to blow up the team, but needed someone to give fans a reason to come to games. Like a zoo or a circus, the big top banner was that the Cubs finally had a "home grown" superstar in the making in Castro.
After a stunning debut, Castro racked up 390 hits in his first two professional seasons. He was a two time All Star. His fielding was below par, but we were told he was still young. He would improve in all facets of his game.
Now in his fourth season, Castro looks broken. He does not like hitting 8th in the lineup. He told his manager so. But afterward, he went 0-4 with a strikeout and a massively spastic error on a routine double play throw to first. He has 15 errors so far this season. That does not include mental errors or lapses in the field, including allowing a runner from third to score on an infield fly out.
Castro is batting a career low .240, with 7 HR and 32 RBI. He has only 3 RBI total in the second half of the season. He has only 8 stolen bases (Soriano had 10 when he was traded). Castro has a negative 0.7 WAR, which means he is playing below a AAA player value.
Why such a huge tailspin? There are several things, factual and speculation, that are cited as reasons. First, the Cubs front office has a philosophy that players should have a high OBP which means that walks are just as important as hits. Castro, as free swinger, rarely walked. The Cubs wanted him to take more pitches. They wanted him to wait for a pitch that he could drive for a home run. They wanted more power production from him. Well, there are some players who do not fit the high OBP, power to the alley mode.
Second, there are too many voices in his head. He has gone through a handful of batting coaches, including three this season (Rowson, Deer and Sveum). Maybe Castro cannot process so much information or guidance. Castro could be confused by mixed signals. Or maybe, Castro has tuned them all out. In any case, he should have been able to revert to his old hitting ways but this year he has been unable to do so.
Third, Sveum said that at some point Castro needs to figure things out for himself. When a manager washes his hands of the issue and puts everything on the player to fix himself, that is not quite the role of a manager. A manager is supposed to be the one in charge of getting the team to play its best by putting players in the best opportunity to succeed. By Sveum calling out Castro and demoting him in the lineup is like letting Castro hang out to dry. Perhaps, Castro needs to be coddled and not criticized by his manager. Positive reinforcement instead of negative actions.
Fourth, Castro is a highly paid professional. He should take it upon himself to be prepared to play every day. Which brings us back to the DeJesus "off the field" comment. We don't know what DeJesus meant but we can infer that Castro may be partying too much off the field which could affect his ability to play. Soriano, his mentor, liked to party and have a good time. He got angry when his manager would not tell him in advance if he would have a day off so he could party harder. Perhaps, some of Soriano's bad social habits have rubbed off on Castro.
Fifth, the lack of concentration and focus especially in the field has most fans worried that something is wrong with Castro. Speculation has run the gambit from having an attention deficit disorder to laziness to being hungover. Only his manager and teammates would know for sure, but those same potential demons were in play during his first All-Star years. Another rationale is that once Castro signed his big money contract extension, the incentive to perform well faded from his consciousness. Often times, players with big contracts underperform just as players who are in the last year of their contracts tend to overperform. A contract or a starting job is a key motivator for athletes. Part of the problem is that Castro has no current competition for his starting shortstop job. Such security could lead to a lax attitude toward his own game.
Can this tailspin be corrected? Only time will tell. But Castro has become Sveum's whipping boy when things go wrong. Anthony Rizzo is having a similar bad season, but Rizzo does not get the same attention or team scrutiny that Castro has received to date.
Castro came to the big leagues out of necessity. He has a quick free swinging bat that could handle major league pitching. The Cubs were about to blow up the team, but needed someone to give fans a reason to come to games. Like a zoo or a circus, the big top banner was that the Cubs finally had a "home grown" superstar in the making in Castro.
After a stunning debut, Castro racked up 390 hits in his first two professional seasons. He was a two time All Star. His fielding was below par, but we were told he was still young. He would improve in all facets of his game.
Now in his fourth season, Castro looks broken. He does not like hitting 8th in the lineup. He told his manager so. But afterward, he went 0-4 with a strikeout and a massively spastic error on a routine double play throw to first. He has 15 errors so far this season. That does not include mental errors or lapses in the field, including allowing a runner from third to score on an infield fly out.
Castro is batting a career low .240, with 7 HR and 32 RBI. He has only 3 RBI total in the second half of the season. He has only 8 stolen bases (Soriano had 10 when he was traded). Castro has a negative 0.7 WAR, which means he is playing below a AAA player value.
Why such a huge tailspin? There are several things, factual and speculation, that are cited as reasons. First, the Cubs front office has a philosophy that players should have a high OBP which means that walks are just as important as hits. Castro, as free swinger, rarely walked. The Cubs wanted him to take more pitches. They wanted him to wait for a pitch that he could drive for a home run. They wanted more power production from him. Well, there are some players who do not fit the high OBP, power to the alley mode.
Second, there are too many voices in his head. He has gone through a handful of batting coaches, including three this season (Rowson, Deer and Sveum). Maybe Castro cannot process so much information or guidance. Castro could be confused by mixed signals. Or maybe, Castro has tuned them all out. In any case, he should have been able to revert to his old hitting ways but this year he has been unable to do so.
Third, Sveum said that at some point Castro needs to figure things out for himself. When a manager washes his hands of the issue and puts everything on the player to fix himself, that is not quite the role of a manager. A manager is supposed to be the one in charge of getting the team to play its best by putting players in the best opportunity to succeed. By Sveum calling out Castro and demoting him in the lineup is like letting Castro hang out to dry. Perhaps, Castro needs to be coddled and not criticized by his manager. Positive reinforcement instead of negative actions.
Fourth, Castro is a highly paid professional. He should take it upon himself to be prepared to play every day. Which brings us back to the DeJesus "off the field" comment. We don't know what DeJesus meant but we can infer that Castro may be partying too much off the field which could affect his ability to play. Soriano, his mentor, liked to party and have a good time. He got angry when his manager would not tell him in advance if he would have a day off so he could party harder. Perhaps, some of Soriano's bad social habits have rubbed off on Castro.
Fifth, the lack of concentration and focus especially in the field has most fans worried that something is wrong with Castro. Speculation has run the gambit from having an attention deficit disorder to laziness to being hungover. Only his manager and teammates would know for sure, but those same potential demons were in play during his first All-Star years. Another rationale is that once Castro signed his big money contract extension, the incentive to perform well faded from his consciousness. Often times, players with big contracts underperform just as players who are in the last year of their contracts tend to overperform. A contract or a starting job is a key motivator for athletes. Part of the problem is that Castro has no current competition for his starting shortstop job. Such security could lead to a lax attitude toward his own game.
Can this tailspin be corrected? Only time will tell. But Castro has become Sveum's whipping boy when things go wrong. Anthony Rizzo is having a similar bad season, but Rizzo does not get the same attention or team scrutiny that Castro has received to date.
May 13, 2013
ANOTHER EARLY EXTENSION
The cornerstone of the New Cubs Way is to overspend. It is like a person who earns one dollar but then has an uncontrollable urge to immediately spend two dollars.
The Cubs signed another young player to a long term extension. Several reports state that Anthony Rizzo will receive a $41 million extension covering 2013-2019 with two club options. The total value of the contract is approximately $70 million. The two options for 2020 and 2021 are for $14.5 million each.
This is the second major long term commitment made by the Cubs. Last season, the Cubs signed Starlin Castro is a seven year deal that locks him up through 2019. That deal was worth $60.5 million with a $16 million club option in 2020. Castro made the jump from the minimum salary to $5 million this year.
Is Rizzo worth an average of $6.83 million per year?
When Castro got his pay day, he had played in 445 games. He had hit 27 HR, 185 RBI, 57 SB and .296 BA in three seasons. He had a career 8.0 WAR.
Rizzo only has 173 career games. He has hit 25 HR, 85 RBI, .253 BA, 9 SB and a career 3.2 WAR.
Castro had a better track record before his extension. But in the year after, Castro's production has dropped to 3 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB, .272 BA in 37 games of 2013. It is not surprising that often young players who get early big money extensions have their performance drop off. It is human nature. They have been rewarded for a massive increase in future performance, but there is no incentive to continue to hone one's skills. Castro has not improved his game; some would say his defense continues to be troublesome.
The Cubs are trying to play the Tampa Bay game of signing their young stars to long term contracts. Except, that is still a minority view point. These extensions are guaranteed and more costly than the stair step contract increases that arbitration grants players.
Fans can debate whether this is a good move to sign a young player without a full season of major league experience to a deal that locks him up to 2020. Other factors in the decision could be the marketing fingerprint of having a program cover boy year after year. But again, the counterbalance is a simple two words: Micah Hoffpauir. He had an All-Star first half in 2009, and was out of the majors less than a year later.
But this really signals that there will be no competition for Rizzo at first base. That means the Cubs best power hitter, Dan Vogelbach (in Class A ball) should start playing LF if the front office has any plans for him.
The Cubs signed another young player to a long term extension. Several reports state that Anthony Rizzo will receive a $41 million extension covering 2013-2019 with two club options. The total value of the contract is approximately $70 million. The two options for 2020 and 2021 are for $14.5 million each.
This is the second major long term commitment made by the Cubs. Last season, the Cubs signed Starlin Castro is a seven year deal that locks him up through 2019. That deal was worth $60.5 million with a $16 million club option in 2020. Castro made the jump from the minimum salary to $5 million this year.
Is Rizzo worth an average of $6.83 million per year?
When Castro got his pay day, he had played in 445 games. He had hit 27 HR, 185 RBI, 57 SB and .296 BA in three seasons. He had a career 8.0 WAR.
Rizzo only has 173 career games. He has hit 25 HR, 85 RBI, .253 BA, 9 SB and a career 3.2 WAR.
Castro had a better track record before his extension. But in the year after, Castro's production has dropped to 3 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB, .272 BA in 37 games of 2013. It is not surprising that often young players who get early big money extensions have their performance drop off. It is human nature. They have been rewarded for a massive increase in future performance, but there is no incentive to continue to hone one's skills. Castro has not improved his game; some would say his defense continues to be troublesome.
The Cubs are trying to play the Tampa Bay game of signing their young stars to long term contracts. Except, that is still a minority view point. These extensions are guaranteed and more costly than the stair step contract increases that arbitration grants players.
Fans can debate whether this is a good move to sign a young player without a full season of major league experience to a deal that locks him up to 2020. Other factors in the decision could be the marketing fingerprint of having a program cover boy year after year. But again, the counterbalance is a simple two words: Micah Hoffpauir. He had an All-Star first half in 2009, and was out of the majors less than a year later.
But this really signals that there will be no competition for Rizzo at first base. That means the Cubs best power hitter, Dan Vogelbach (in Class A ball) should start playing LF if the front office has any plans for him.
June 26, 2012
THE FRANCHISE ARRIVES
Anthony Rizzo makes his Cubs debut tonight against the Mets. Rizzo, the centerpiece in an off-season trade to build the farm system under new management, is the latest "can't miss" prospect to wear the Cubs uniform (remember, Felix Pie and Corey Patterson). Some moderate observers wondered at the time of the trade whether if Rizzo was such a great prospect, did the Padres trade him away in order to get the Reds top first base prospect in the Latos deal?
Rizzo only had a short taste of the majors in San Diego. He did not do well. The expectation balloon burst on that short trip to the Bigs. In 49 games, he hit only .141, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .281 OBP.
But Rizzo has nothing more to prove in the minors.
At Iowa, his numbers were giant: .342 BA, .405 OBP, 23 HR, 62 RBI in 70 games.
In his 6 minor league seasons (445 GP), he has a career .303 BA, 87 HR, 343 RBI, 23 SB, .372 OBP and fielding percentage of .989.
In an unscientific newspaper poll, the expectations for Rizzo's major league career broke down as follows:
43% believed he would have an All-Star type career
42% believed he would be a decent major league ball players
8% believed that he would have a Hall of Fame career
7% thought he would be a bust.
Optimists project that Rizzo in a full major league season could hit .297 24 HR, 97 RBI 6 SB.
That would be a very good offensive player. But if he cannot adjust to major league pitching like in his San Diego experience, realistic projections would be tempered by 15 to 50 percent.
With the Cubs on a record pace for losses in a season, the idea of promoting Rizzo to be The Franchise, the cornerstone of the Epstein team of the future is a huge burden to place on a 22 year old. His presence in the line up is not going to lift the team into competing for the NL Central title this year. All it does is give season ticket holders "hope" for the future and a reason to show up at Wrigley and spend money to fill Ricketts coffers.
Rizzo only had a short taste of the majors in San Diego. He did not do well. The expectation balloon burst on that short trip to the Bigs. In 49 games, he hit only .141, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .281 OBP.
But Rizzo has nothing more to prove in the minors.
At Iowa, his numbers were giant: .342 BA, .405 OBP, 23 HR, 62 RBI in 70 games.
In his 6 minor league seasons (445 GP), he has a career .303 BA, 87 HR, 343 RBI, 23 SB, .372 OBP and fielding percentage of .989.
In an unscientific newspaper poll, the expectations for Rizzo's major league career broke down as follows:
43% believed he would have an All-Star type career
42% believed he would be a decent major league ball players
8% believed that he would have a Hall of Fame career
7% thought he would be a bust.
Optimists project that Rizzo in a full major league season could hit .297 24 HR, 97 RBI 6 SB.
That would be a very good offensive player. But if he cannot adjust to major league pitching like in his San Diego experience, realistic projections would be tempered by 15 to 50 percent.
With the Cubs on a record pace for losses in a season, the idea of promoting Rizzo to be The Franchise, the cornerstone of the Epstein team of the future is a huge burden to place on a 22 year old. His presence in the line up is not going to lift the team into competing for the NL Central title this year. All it does is give season ticket holders "hope" for the future and a reason to show up at Wrigley and spend money to fill Ricketts coffers.
May 1, 2012
CALL UPS
There are various rumblings from fans when will the Cubs 2.0 management call up hot prospects Rizzo and B. Jackson. The simple answer is in 2013. That is not a joke.
The new breed of general manager is more focused on controlling their prospects free agency time line than quickly promoting a player to the major league roster. The reason is simple: after a certain time period, a good prospect can turn into a Super Two ( two plus years of ML service) as being the top 17 percent of the rookie crop, which means one less year of arbitration (one year earlier for free agency). The status also means a bump in pay, too. So cost conscious teams want to limit the amount of Super Twos on their roster.
The Cubs rank last in power stats. LaHair has half of the team's total HR total. The current starting outfield (Soriano, Campana and DeJesus) have zero. Statistically, LaHair may be the second best NL hitter behind LA's Kemp. LaHair's fast start is another reason that Rizzo will remain in Iowa for the full season.
Another reason is that the Cubs are on pace to lose 106 games. An 8-15 April does not show the team is ready to compete for the division. Why start the free agency clock when the team is not going to contend?
A third reason may be marketing. By leaving Jackson and Rizzo at Iowa to build up monster numbers, the Cubs PR machine will use them as new hope for 2013 (in an attempt to get season ticket renewals from an exhausted fan base). Yes, it is a cheap and unrealistic ploy on the team's part.
Another reason Jackson and Rizzo will not be called up soon is that they are effectively blocked by current players. Manager Sveum has stated that Campana is going to play 80% of the remaining games as his center fielder. That blocks Jackson from playing every day. Campana is a one dimensional player (speed) compared to a five tool prospect like Jackson. But Sveum thinks he can use Campana in the second hole and create some offensive, steals and scoring chances for the middle of the order.
LaHair's fast start blocks the need for Rizzo to be called up to play first. LaHair has no other natural position to go to; playing him in LF instead of Soriano makes the team weaker, since Soriano is still the number one HR power source on the club. Playing RF instead of DeJesus would be a stretch because LaHair is not fast to cover that corner. It would also highlight a potential mistake in signing DeJesus in the first place, a thing that the new administration would loath to give the media fodder to criticize the Theocracy.
Rizzo and Jackson are part of the Cubs future. But the Future is still a long ways away.
The new breed of general manager is more focused on controlling their prospects free agency time line than quickly promoting a player to the major league roster. The reason is simple: after a certain time period, a good prospect can turn into a Super Two ( two plus years of ML service) as being the top 17 percent of the rookie crop, which means one less year of arbitration (one year earlier for free agency). The status also means a bump in pay, too. So cost conscious teams want to limit the amount of Super Twos on their roster.
The Cubs rank last in power stats. LaHair has half of the team's total HR total. The current starting outfield (Soriano, Campana and DeJesus) have zero. Statistically, LaHair may be the second best NL hitter behind LA's Kemp. LaHair's fast start is another reason that Rizzo will remain in Iowa for the full season.
Another reason is that the Cubs are on pace to lose 106 games. An 8-15 April does not show the team is ready to compete for the division. Why start the free agency clock when the team is not going to contend?
A third reason may be marketing. By leaving Jackson and Rizzo at Iowa to build up monster numbers, the Cubs PR machine will use them as new hope for 2013 (in an attempt to get season ticket renewals from an exhausted fan base). Yes, it is a cheap and unrealistic ploy on the team's part.
Another reason Jackson and Rizzo will not be called up soon is that they are effectively blocked by current players. Manager Sveum has stated that Campana is going to play 80% of the remaining games as his center fielder. That blocks Jackson from playing every day. Campana is a one dimensional player (speed) compared to a five tool prospect like Jackson. But Sveum thinks he can use Campana in the second hole and create some offensive, steals and scoring chances for the middle of the order.
LaHair's fast start blocks the need for Rizzo to be called up to play first. LaHair has no other natural position to go to; playing him in LF instead of Soriano makes the team weaker, since Soriano is still the number one HR power source on the club. Playing RF instead of DeJesus would be a stretch because LaHair is not fast to cover that corner. It would also highlight a potential mistake in signing DeJesus in the first place, a thing that the new administration would loath to give the media fodder to criticize the Theocracy.
Rizzo and Jackson are part of the Cubs future. But the Future is still a long ways away.
January 7, 2012
RIZZO TRADE
The reaction to the Cubs trade for Padre prospect Anthony Rizzo has been mixed; the fan base has been underwhelmed by the moves of Epstein and Hoyer this off-season.
Rizzo was one of the players San Diego received from Theo's Red Sox in the Adrian Gonzalez deal. But once new Pads GM Josh Byrnes took over for Hoyer, he traded to young starter Matt Latos to the Reds for prospect Alonso, thereby creating a jam at first base with Rizzo.
So it is apparent that the scouts and GM in San Diego thought better of Alonso than Rizzo as the first baseman of the future. Rizzo fizzled in his time in the majors last season, batting a mere .141. However, in Triple A, he had good power numbers (but LaHair had slightly better overall numbers at Iowa, and better numbers with lesser at bats with the Cubs.)
Fans were upbeat about the new Cub management team finding a solution at first base, then paused when Hoyer said that Rizzo needed "more time to develop." That leaves LaHair as the placeholder at first base in 2012. Most project a sophomore slump a la Micah Hoffpauir for LaHair.
But some fans are weary of the trade of Andrew Cashner, a known commodity, for a "prospect." Cashner, who was misused last season which contributed to his shoulder injury, will return to the bullpen in San Diego. In a pitcher friendly park, he is projected to be the set-up man with about 10 wins, 35 holds and an ERA under 3.00 (a right handed Sean Marshall). Then, he is in line to be promoted to replace Health Bell as the Padre closer, a role he had in college.
There is no guarantee that LaHair is a late bloomer, or that Rizzo is a AAAA player like Hoffpauir.
But one thing is clear, Epstein and Hoyer are discounting the Hendry prospects and signees like week old tuna at the fish market. Gone are Colvin, LeMathieu, Cashner, and Marshall. It puts a bull's eye on the back of Cubs #1 prospect, Brett Jackson, on whether he will be in the Cubs 2012 plans.
Rizzo was one of the players San Diego received from Theo's Red Sox in the Adrian Gonzalez deal. But once new Pads GM Josh Byrnes took over for Hoyer, he traded to young starter Matt Latos to the Reds for prospect Alonso, thereby creating a jam at first base with Rizzo.
So it is apparent that the scouts and GM in San Diego thought better of Alonso than Rizzo as the first baseman of the future. Rizzo fizzled in his time in the majors last season, batting a mere .141. However, in Triple A, he had good power numbers (but LaHair had slightly better overall numbers at Iowa, and better numbers with lesser at bats with the Cubs.)
Fans were upbeat about the new Cub management team finding a solution at first base, then paused when Hoyer said that Rizzo needed "more time to develop." That leaves LaHair as the placeholder at first base in 2012. Most project a sophomore slump a la Micah Hoffpauir for LaHair.
But some fans are weary of the trade of Andrew Cashner, a known commodity, for a "prospect." Cashner, who was misused last season which contributed to his shoulder injury, will return to the bullpen in San Diego. In a pitcher friendly park, he is projected to be the set-up man with about 10 wins, 35 holds and an ERA under 3.00 (a right handed Sean Marshall). Then, he is in line to be promoted to replace Health Bell as the Padre closer, a role he had in college.
There is no guarantee that LaHair is a late bloomer, or that Rizzo is a AAAA player like Hoffpauir.
But one thing is clear, Epstein and Hoyer are discounting the Hendry prospects and signees like week old tuna at the fish market. Gone are Colvin, LeMathieu, Cashner, and Marshall. It puts a bull's eye on the back of Cubs #1 prospect, Brett Jackson, on whether he will be in the Cubs 2012 plans.
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