THE GOOD BAD PROBLEM

The Cubs have talked themselves into another problem.

First, it was owner Tom Ricketts who cheerleaded his thoughts to proclaim at the Cub convention that the 2015 squad was going to win the NL Central.  Second, new Theo Epstein and his management crew seconded that sentiment, which put fans into an over-optimistic fever. Third, Joe Maddon came out of the box saying the same thing: the Cubs will win the division. Fourth, many players started repeating this hype.

All is well and good if there was a chance in hell for such instant success. But there are more believers than realists.

But since the team talked itself into promising a divisional championship, and a play off birth this year, Ricketts and management need to do whatever it takes to make that happen. They have obligated themselves to do whatever is reasonable and necessary to compete and win every contest this season as the Cardinals and Pirates will field strong teams.

So when #1 prospect comes to spring training, the media is told Kris Bryant will not make it to the opening day roster, even though the team traded away the caretaker 3B Luis Valbuena in the off-season. No, Bryant will have to stay in Iowa for business reasons, so to withhold the path to early free agency five years down the road. The fans don't want "business" reasons to interfere with "winning the division" assurances. Ricketts is a millionaire, the team is worth more than a billion dollars, pay Bryant when the time comes but play him now. There is no reason to candy coat a winning culture with a cheapskate excuse.

To complicate things is that Bryant is putting shock and awe in the stands. So far, Bryant's production has been Ruthian: 20 AB, 9, H, .450 BA, 6 HR, 9 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K, .522 OBP, 1.400 SLG and 1.922 OPS. Yes, spring training stats can be misleading but Bryant is so far ahead of any other Cub that it is more than noticeable. He is now in the direct comparison with Mike Trout rookie season.

So if the Cubs stick to their plan to stash Bryant in Iowa for no reason except to save money down the road, and the Cubs miss the playoffs by one, two, five, ten or X games because Bryant was not on the roster at the beginning, there could be a peasant revolt at Clark and Addison.

Because, fans know that if Bryant struggles on the opening day roster, the Cubs could send him back to Iowa to regain his form. The probability is that Bryant will not struggle when he hits the majors which means the Cubs management is in a bind. If they are lying about winning this season (in order to sell tickets and merchandise to pay for all the real estate projects) with the real projection championship run in two, three or four years from now, then holding back Bryant makes some sense (but not a lot). If management truly believes that this is the year for winning the NL Central, then it should field the best team possible - - - which includes starting Bryant at third base on Opening Night.

The Cubs painted themselves in a corner. They hyped the team and young prospects as champions, but are trying to hold back potentially their best player from the team.

UPDATE: Bryant was not in Sunday's line up due to minor "shoulder soreness."  The team says he will be okay.  But this is one of the reasons to keep Bryant off the opening day roster, a minor injury. The second is to keep him down to work on his fielding fundamentals.

The weekend radio sports talk shows were fairly livid about the prospect of Bryant not making the major league team from Day One. A few suggested the Cubs could get an extra year by sitting him down for the equivalent of 9 games instead of the projected 30+. If management has its way, then the team may lose 2 games with Bryant not on the roster. And if the team is supposed to "contend" for the division crown, two games is a lot.

WHAT IS THE FUTURE?

As the trading deadline dust settled last night, and the Cubs being one-hit by the Pirates at a very empty Wrigley Field, one must ask whether this is the franchise bottom and/or the start of the new team construction under Epstein and Hoyer?

On the current roster, who are the players that are clearly the Cubs future?

In the outfield, Soriano, DeJesus and LaHair are not the future. The Cubs tried to unload Soriano and LaHair this year, but with no real takers. Soriano's contract alone anchors him to LF, but he is on the decline. LaHair has turned into another old AAAA player.

In the infield, Valbuena, Barney are not the future. Valbuena is a journeyman covering the bag because the woeful Ian Stewart got hurt (he is also not part of the future rebuild). Barney may be a nice scrappy little player in the popular Ryan Theriot mode, but he is not as productive as the Pirates' Neil Walker (11 HRs, 56 RBI). In modern baseball you need position players with more offensive pop than average defense.  Rizzo and Castro are in the Cubs future.

Behind the plate, Clevenger and Castillo will have to earn their keep quickly. The Cubs will have to promote more and more young pitchers through the system quicker than normal because ownership and the fan base cannot wait to 2015 for a competitive squad. They will platoon for the rest of this summer.

In the rotation, Garza is not the future as the Cubs really wanted to trade him but an injury cost them to opportunity to make the big deal. It is highly unlikely the Cubs will spend big money on a contract extension with Garza, who has not shown Verlander-ace performance while in a Cub uniform. Samardzija is on the fence; as a first year starter he is playing for a contract and a raise. Since the Cubs kept him out of trade discussions means they want to keep him around, at least for the short term. Travis Wood, by default, has to be part of the future rotation, as the only viable lefty starter in the organization.
Volstad, Coleman, Germano appear to be spot starters and placeholders and not keys to the rebuilding plan.

In the bullpen, only Jeff Russell appears to be part of the future. Marmol's inconsistency and his contract dooms him to be moved in the off-season. Maine, Mateo,  Corpas and Camp are not long term assets. Besides, most scouts believe the four right handed pitchers the Cubs obtained at the trade deadline all project to bullpen relievers.

In the minors, who is supposed to be the future? The rebuilding and roster turnover has to begin next year in earnest.

At Iowa, Brett Jackson is the CF in waiting; except his strike out totals are looming large. Josh Vitters has been the perennial third base prospect for years. Due to the lack of depth, he will get his shot next season.

The Cubs front office has an arbitrary 500 AB quota for AAA position players before promotion to the majors, so prospects like Lake, Baez, Sczur, Torreyes must wait at least two years before being "ready" for promotion.

And it will take an IBM supercomputer to sort out all the pitchers the Cubs have acquired in the last six months to see if any of them are keepers.

So as it stands today, the Cubs future is in the hands of the following players:
Castro, Rizzo, Samardzija, T. Wood, Russell, B. Jackson and Vitters.