Multiple reports having Kris Bryant turning down a $200 million extension offer from the Cubs.
Bryant's agent, Scott Boras, is looking for his MVP winner in three years to hit the open market. A market, which two years ago, thought Bryce Harper would potentially reach the $400 million mark. But Boras and other top agents hit the wall last season when the free agent market tanked on star players. Harper's market value has plummeted with the misfortunes of the Nationals. Being a diva and not a five tool player has hurt Harper's valuation. But the market makers, the large big budget teams, are now more concerned about staying under the luxury tax or spending caps to bankrupt their draft picks and international pool money.
For the Cubs to even offer Bryant such a deal after his weak 2018 campaign is telling; someone in management thinks the Cubs window of opportunity for championships is longer than three years. But to offer any player $200 million is a risky proposition. Bryant has had various injuries that kept him out of the lineup for 60 games. Most troublesome is a shoulder injury for which rest did not help. It screwed up his batting mechanics to the point where he became a weak singles hitter. The Cubs do not need another .275 BA, big money singles hitter (i.e. Heyward.)
Player salaries continued to rocket northward from 2009 to 2016. In 2009 free agency, a star player would receive approximately $1.3 million/WAR. By 2012, the value increased to $3.3 million. It peaked around $6 million/WAR. Last off-season, J.D. Martinez had a 4.2 WAR. He was one of the few power hitting free agents. After a long wait, Boston signed him for decrease in his asking price, around $5.6 million/WAR. Other free agents got less.
Bryant and his agent are still miffed that their grievance on manipulating service time cost Bryant an earlier escape into free agency. But the Cubs did pay him more money than the minimum prior to arbitration eligibility. The Cubs have paid record arb awards to Bryant. He will make from $14 to 16 million in 2019. If you look at Martinez's Red Sox valuation, Bryant only had 1.9 WAR in 2018. That would equate to only a $10.4 million 2019 salary. Bryant's 2019 salary is still based on "talent" and not "performance," something Theo Epstein was in general bitter about his team during the post-season press conference. He had earned a record for a first-year arbitration-eligible player
$10.85 million in 2018.
To offer Bryant $20 million/year extension means that the Cubs would not exercise the option on Hamels. The team would have to shed more money to keep under the salary cap, probably packaging Russell ($3 million), Schwarber ($1.3 million) and Chatwood ($12.5 million) in order to pay for Bryant's extension. All three of those Cub players are at their lowest trade value. They may have gone stale from their prospect-scouting talent projections based on recent performance.
Boras may still be misreading the future of MLB. The bottom of the market could crash in the next three years because MLB cannot count on a billion dollar national television deal. MLB teams cannot reasonably believe they will get a billion dollar windfall by creating their own Yankee network or Dodgers channel because cable operators are bleeding to death by cord cutters who refuse to pay for sports channels. Boras and other agents may think smart owners may cash out their investment in the next few years so some new rich guy will come to the table ready to spend money for "star" players. So the odds are that Bryant will take a dangerous jog down the path of free agency.
Showing posts with label Bryant. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bryant. Show all posts
October 11, 2018
July 25, 2018
SECOND HALF ISSUES
The Cubs surged into first before the AS break, but now have begun to wobble in the heat of July.
Kyle Hendricks is not the old Hendricks, a pinpoint professor in the art of pitching. Teams have finally figured him out. An 88 mph fastball is not his out pitch. Batters are now sitting on change ups that are in the hitting zone. As Hendricks relies more on off-speed stuff on the corners, umpires are taking away is major advantage by calling more balls. Patient hitters and smaller strike calls is making Hendricks an average pitcher. It could change if he uses his fastball more to keep the batters honest and off-guard.
Kris Bryant was pulled from the line-up because of his shoulder issue. He said before the ASG that it was an injury that he will have to deal with throughout the season. But word is that he cannot even swing the bat. That means a probable DL stint and the return of Bote at third. Having Bryant out of the line-up puts more pressure on Rizzo, who is trying to hit his way out of his own personal slump by leading off. But Maddon will have to move Rizzo out of the #1 spot to increase scoring chances if Bryant goes on the DL.
Yu Darvish is becoming a real bad issue. The Cubs were happy that Darvish yesterday threw 16 pitches off the mound after three weeks of rest. Sixteen pitches is not a start. It seems that Darvish's progress has been painstakingly slow. The front office is counting more on Drew Smyly coming off Tommy John surgery than Darvish. Montgomery was great when he first took Darvish's spot in the rotation, but now after a half dozen starts, he is falling back into being an average starter (which ironically is better than the Cubs original 4th and 5th starters).
Javy Baez is trying to do too much. He got throw out again for aggressive baserunning. He needs to calm down and let the team win games. Baez is the Cubs current MVP. He is the only true five tool player on the roster who can make exciting plays at the plate and in the field. But Baez has a history of coming unglued at the bat. Let us see if he has matured enough to adjust to his new leader-by-example role.
The bullpen was re-tooled in order to be ready for the post-season. Brandon Morrow was the new closer, and Maddon kept him on the light work load. But Morrow got hurt anyway (which is his M.O.). The rotation has been sub-par all year, with very few quality starts. More times than not, starters are barely throwing five innings - - - which taxes the bullpen to the extreme that now four different position players have thrown in relief. Jesse Chavez acquisition was needed to find a "rubber" arm veteran who can do long relief, short relief, close and spot start. But asking Chavez to be the bullpen godsend is asking too much.
The Cubs offense still runs in feast or famine mode. They score a lot of runs, or they score very little. Consistency in the batting order could be blamed for the hot and cold mentality, but Maddon would disagree. He wants to use his entire roster to keep them fresh and in the game. But since the ASG, he has literally given up midway through 2 games (for losses).
The Cubs probably need to make a big move at the trade deadline, but they do not have any great minor league prospects to trade. And Theo and Jed are in love with "their" guys to trade away Happ, Schwarber or Almora.
Kyle Hendricks is not the old Hendricks, a pinpoint professor in the art of pitching. Teams have finally figured him out. An 88 mph fastball is not his out pitch. Batters are now sitting on change ups that are in the hitting zone. As Hendricks relies more on off-speed stuff on the corners, umpires are taking away is major advantage by calling more balls. Patient hitters and smaller strike calls is making Hendricks an average pitcher. It could change if he uses his fastball more to keep the batters honest and off-guard.
Kris Bryant was pulled from the line-up because of his shoulder issue. He said before the ASG that it was an injury that he will have to deal with throughout the season. But word is that he cannot even swing the bat. That means a probable DL stint and the return of Bote at third. Having Bryant out of the line-up puts more pressure on Rizzo, who is trying to hit his way out of his own personal slump by leading off. But Maddon will have to move Rizzo out of the #1 spot to increase scoring chances if Bryant goes on the DL.
Yu Darvish is becoming a real bad issue. The Cubs were happy that Darvish yesterday threw 16 pitches off the mound after three weeks of rest. Sixteen pitches is not a start. It seems that Darvish's progress has been painstakingly slow. The front office is counting more on Drew Smyly coming off Tommy John surgery than Darvish. Montgomery was great when he first took Darvish's spot in the rotation, but now after a half dozen starts, he is falling back into being an average starter (which ironically is better than the Cubs original 4th and 5th starters).
Javy Baez is trying to do too much. He got throw out again for aggressive baserunning. He needs to calm down and let the team win games. Baez is the Cubs current MVP. He is the only true five tool player on the roster who can make exciting plays at the plate and in the field. But Baez has a history of coming unglued at the bat. Let us see if he has matured enough to adjust to his new leader-by-example role.
The bullpen was re-tooled in order to be ready for the post-season. Brandon Morrow was the new closer, and Maddon kept him on the light work load. But Morrow got hurt anyway (which is his M.O.). The rotation has been sub-par all year, with very few quality starts. More times than not, starters are barely throwing five innings - - - which taxes the bullpen to the extreme that now four different position players have thrown in relief. Jesse Chavez acquisition was needed to find a "rubber" arm veteran who can do long relief, short relief, close and spot start. But asking Chavez to be the bullpen godsend is asking too much.
The Cubs offense still runs in feast or famine mode. They score a lot of runs, or they score very little. Consistency in the batting order could be blamed for the hot and cold mentality, but Maddon would disagree. He wants to use his entire roster to keep them fresh and in the game. But since the ASG, he has literally given up midway through 2 games (for losses).
The Cubs probably need to make a big move at the trade deadline, but they do not have any great minor league prospects to trade. And Theo and Jed are in love with "their" guys to trade away Happ, Schwarber or Almora.
February 3, 2018
NEW PARADOX
In the past, players were given new contracts based upon past performance. Mega-deals like Albert Pujols Angels' contract has been a disaster because as the superstar aged, his performance was bound to decline. Teams are more aware of "dead money" deals having a substantial negative impact on their team's payroll and finances (aren't the Mets still paying Bobby Bonilla?)
This off-season has been a turning point. General managers are not paying for "past" performance as much as looking forward with new metrics to determine if a free agent is worthy of a $100 million deal.
When the news broke that the Cubs avoided arbitration with Kris Bryant by inking him to a record $10.8 million deal, I thought the Cubs overpaid to keep him happy. Some believe teams give large contracts to controlled players as a means of trying to get a "home town discount" when they reach free agency.
Bryant's large contract allowed Mookie Betts to best the Red Sox at his arbitration hearing, earning a new deal at $10.5 million.
The consensus standard measure for player value has been WAR. In the past, $5.5 million in value was attached to each 1.0 WAR. In other words, a starting position player (2.0 WAR) should be making $11 million.
When we look at the Bryant contract on a valuation standard, he had a 6.1 WAR in 2017. Under the old standard, his value was $33.55 million. He played well above his salary. In his 2018 deal, Bryant's salary valuation is only $1.77 million/WAR.
The same is true for Betts. His performance standard last season was worth $35.2 million. Under his 2018 deal, Betts' salary valuation is only $1.64 million/WAR.
Both the Cubs and Red Sox expect that Bryant and Betts will have equally good seasons as last year. They are both young and have not hit their "prime" production years.
But if big market teams look closely, their current superstar players are getting good contracts well below past FA dynamics. Bryant and Betts are being paid at a rate one-third of the old FA standard. Some would say Bryant and Betts would have been the top two free agents if they were not arbitration eligible. So if these players are getting under $11 million, why should any other FA get more?
Players and agents may not sense this economic earthquake shift in valuation considerations.
It was reported Yu Darvish had one five-year contract offer. But apparently, he rejected it since it has been two weeks and he remains unsigned. It may have been from the Twins or the Brewers (who have moved on to discuss trading power hitter Domingo Santana to the Rays for SP Chris Archer.) One report had Darvish looking for more than $150 million. Any long term deal would put the 31 year old pitcher past his "prime" years.
If Darvish is looking for a 5 year/$150 million contract, the annual salary hit to a team would be $30 million. Darvish's 2017 WAR was 3.8. Under the old WAR metric, his value would be $20.9 million. Under the new metric, it is only $7.6 million. There is an ocean of difference between these two figures. And that is why both sides seem to be waiting out the off-season, playing payroll "chicken."
But the teams do have an incentive not to flinch or cave. The big money teams, the past spenders who set the free agent marketplace, has all decided that the luxury tax hits and loss of draft position is more costly in the long run that signing expensive free agents in a "win now" annual business model. Teams see young core controllable players on the Cubs and Astros rosters wearing championship rings. They want to copy that blueprint for success.
The longest contract signed this off-season was Lorenzo Cain and the Brewers: 5 years, $80 million. Cain had an excellent 2017 campaign. He had a 5.3 WAR. Under the old system, his performance value would be $29.15 million. Cain signed his deal with an average salary of $16 million/year. Under the new metric, he is getting $3 million/WAR, a 45 percent discount from the past standard.
Players want to get paid what they are worth. But the definition of worth is rapidly changing in baseball. As spring training gates open in less than two weeks, it will be interesting to see how many Andre Dawson situations will happen at the fence line. (Dawson was a FA with no suitors. So he went to Cubs camp with a blank check and asked the Cubs to give him a contract on the team's terms.)
This off-season has been a turning point. General managers are not paying for "past" performance as much as looking forward with new metrics to determine if a free agent is worthy of a $100 million deal.
When the news broke that the Cubs avoided arbitration with Kris Bryant by inking him to a record $10.8 million deal, I thought the Cubs overpaid to keep him happy. Some believe teams give large contracts to controlled players as a means of trying to get a "home town discount" when they reach free agency.
Bryant's large contract allowed Mookie Betts to best the Red Sox at his arbitration hearing, earning a new deal at $10.5 million.
The consensus standard measure for player value has been WAR. In the past, $5.5 million in value was attached to each 1.0 WAR. In other words, a starting position player (2.0 WAR) should be making $11 million.
When we look at the Bryant contract on a valuation standard, he had a 6.1 WAR in 2017. Under the old standard, his value was $33.55 million. He played well above his salary. In his 2018 deal, Bryant's salary valuation is only $1.77 million/WAR.
The same is true for Betts. His performance standard last season was worth $35.2 million. Under his 2018 deal, Betts' salary valuation is only $1.64 million/WAR.
Both the Cubs and Red Sox expect that Bryant and Betts will have equally good seasons as last year. They are both young and have not hit their "prime" production years.
But if big market teams look closely, their current superstar players are getting good contracts well below past FA dynamics. Bryant and Betts are being paid at a rate one-third of the old FA standard. Some would say Bryant and Betts would have been the top two free agents if they were not arbitration eligible. So if these players are getting under $11 million, why should any other FA get more?
Players and agents may not sense this economic earthquake shift in valuation considerations.
It was reported Yu Darvish had one five-year contract offer. But apparently, he rejected it since it has been two weeks and he remains unsigned. It may have been from the Twins or the Brewers (who have moved on to discuss trading power hitter Domingo Santana to the Rays for SP Chris Archer.) One report had Darvish looking for more than $150 million. Any long term deal would put the 31 year old pitcher past his "prime" years.
If Darvish is looking for a 5 year/$150 million contract, the annual salary hit to a team would be $30 million. Darvish's 2017 WAR was 3.8. Under the old WAR metric, his value would be $20.9 million. Under the new metric, it is only $7.6 million. There is an ocean of difference between these two figures. And that is why both sides seem to be waiting out the off-season, playing payroll "chicken."
But the teams do have an incentive not to flinch or cave. The big money teams, the past spenders who set the free agent marketplace, has all decided that the luxury tax hits and loss of draft position is more costly in the long run that signing expensive free agents in a "win now" annual business model. Teams see young core controllable players on the Cubs and Astros rosters wearing championship rings. They want to copy that blueprint for success.
The longest contract signed this off-season was Lorenzo Cain and the Brewers: 5 years, $80 million. Cain had an excellent 2017 campaign. He had a 5.3 WAR. Under the old system, his performance value would be $29.15 million. Cain signed his deal with an average salary of $16 million/year. Under the new metric, he is getting $3 million/WAR, a 45 percent discount from the past standard.
Players want to get paid what they are worth. But the definition of worth is rapidly changing in baseball. As spring training gates open in less than two weeks, it will be interesting to see how many Andre Dawson situations will happen at the fence line. (Dawson was a FA with no suitors. So he went to Cubs camp with a blank check and asked the Cubs to give him a contract on the team's terms.)
June 28, 2016
BASEBALL SURPRISES
The game of baseball never ceases to surprise you.
A fan can never truly say "I've seen it all."
Last night in Cincinnati, Kris Bryant did something no other baseball player had ever done. And when you see what he accomplished, you are surprised that he was the first.
Bryant set career highs with three home runs and five extra-base hits on Monday to help the Chicago Cubs beat the Reds 11-8.
Bryant became the fifth player in the past 100 years to go 5-for-5 with five extra-base hits in a game. He joined Josh Hamilton (2012), Steve Garvey (1977), Joe Adcock (1954) and Lou Boudreau (1946).
According to Elias Sports Bureau research, Bryant is the youngest player in Cubs history to hit three home runs in a game. He is 10 days younger than Ernie Banks was when he accomplished the feat in 1955. Elias also notes that Bryant's 16 total bases on Monday are the most by a Cub in the modern era.
Bryant's box score included three home runs and two doubles. No one in baseball history had that combination of five hits in a game. And that is the surprising thing: we have seen four home run games, wild extra inning contests, 20 plus runs scoring days - - - but never a player hit 3 HR and 2 doubles in a contest.
Bryant was in a zone because none of his home runs were cheap. They were long, towering blasts.
In another oddity, according to research by ESPN Stats & Information, Bryant is the first player in at least 100 years to hit three home runs and play three different positions (third base, right field and left field). Joe Maddon changing his positions did not affect Bryant at the plate. There is a comfort zone Bryant has reached in his second full season in the majors. And for the Cubs, that may be the foundation pillar for more modern baseball firsts.
A fan can never truly say "I've seen it all."
Last night in Cincinnati, Kris Bryant did something no other baseball player had ever done. And when you see what he accomplished, you are surprised that he was the first.
Bryant set career highs with three home runs and five extra-base hits on Monday to help the Chicago Cubs beat the Reds 11-8.
Bryant became the fifth player in the past 100 years to go 5-for-5 with five extra-base hits in a game. He joined Josh Hamilton (2012), Steve Garvey (1977), Joe Adcock (1954) and Lou Boudreau (1946).
According to Elias Sports Bureau research, Bryant is the youngest player in Cubs history to hit three home runs in a game. He is 10 days younger than Ernie Banks was when he accomplished the feat in 1955. Elias also notes that Bryant's 16 total bases on Monday are the most by a Cub in the modern era.
Bryant's box score included three home runs and two doubles. No one in baseball history had that combination of five hits in a game. And that is the surprising thing: we have seen four home run games, wild extra inning contests, 20 plus runs scoring days - - - but never a player hit 3 HR and 2 doubles in a contest.
Bryant was in a zone because none of his home runs were cheap. They were long, towering blasts.
In another oddity, according to research by ESPN Stats & Information, Bryant is the first player in at least 100 years to hit three home runs and play three different positions (third base, right field and left field). Joe Maddon changing his positions did not affect Bryant at the plate. There is a comfort zone Bryant has reached in his second full season in the majors. And for the Cubs, that may be the foundation pillar for more modern baseball firsts.
June 1, 2016
LITTLE LEAGUE
When Joe Maddon inserted Kris Bryant at shortstop for an inning late in the Dodger game, one reaction was that the move was "little league."
He is moving players around like a little league manager, Bruce Levine said on the radio. Levine also noted that the Cub players do not fear playing new positions.
But that still begs the question: why?
No team has won the World Series by fielding eight utility players.
By playing players out of the normal position a) increases the chance of injury (Schwarber in LF); and b) lessens the quality of defense (Heyward in CF). It is very rare for a player to be very good at more than one position. Ben Zobrist has made a career on being a super utility player (SS, 2B, 3B, OF). Javy Baez's best position is shortstop. He has the arm and range to play third and second base.
Other than Zobrist and Baez, no other Cub players are plus defenders outside their natural position. It is fine to send Bryant to LF to insert Baez at third when a ground ball pitcher like Jon Lester is on the mound.
But most players will tell you that they like a normal routine. They are creatures of habit.
But Maddon is not. He likes to keep the team loose, and off-guard. Putting Bryant at shortstop was a wake up call to the bench. Bryant did not have a ball hit to him or had to make a play at short, but objectively, it could have been one of those WTF moments. A grounder deep in the hole could cause Bryant to strain muscles or his arm trying to make a jump throw to first. Or worse, trying to make the double play at second base moving his body across the bag, throwing against his body and being hit by a base runner.
A manager needs to be a risk assessment manager. There is no upside for Bryant playing shortstop. The risk of injury against his routine positioning and throwing motions makes it an accident waiting to happen. Bryant has shown he is an above average third baseman. He is OK in left field. Let him play his natural position so he can concentrate on hitting.
He is moving players around like a little league manager, Bruce Levine said on the radio. Levine also noted that the Cub players do not fear playing new positions.
But that still begs the question: why?
No team has won the World Series by fielding eight utility players.
By playing players out of the normal position a) increases the chance of injury (Schwarber in LF); and b) lessens the quality of defense (Heyward in CF). It is very rare for a player to be very good at more than one position. Ben Zobrist has made a career on being a super utility player (SS, 2B, 3B, OF). Javy Baez's best position is shortstop. He has the arm and range to play third and second base.
Other than Zobrist and Baez, no other Cub players are plus defenders outside their natural position. It is fine to send Bryant to LF to insert Baez at third when a ground ball pitcher like Jon Lester is on the mound.
But most players will tell you that they like a normal routine. They are creatures of habit.
But Maddon is not. He likes to keep the team loose, and off-guard. Putting Bryant at shortstop was a wake up call to the bench. Bryant did not have a ball hit to him or had to make a play at short, but objectively, it could have been one of those WTF moments. A grounder deep in the hole could cause Bryant to strain muscles or his arm trying to make a jump throw to first. Or worse, trying to make the double play at second base moving his body across the bag, throwing against his body and being hit by a base runner.
A manager needs to be a risk assessment manager. There is no upside for Bryant playing shortstop. The risk of injury against his routine positioning and throwing motions makes it an accident waiting to happen. Bryant has shown he is an above average third baseman. He is OK in left field. Let him play his natural position so he can concentrate on hitting.
December 15, 2015
SERVICE TIME
Service time earned towards free agency was collectively bargained between the players union and MLB. A contract is a contract; a deal is a deal.
Back in May, Kris Bryant's agent groused about the Cubs "holding back" his star player from the major leagues. But it standard procedure of front offices to balance promoting rookies to the major league roster vs. how many "years of control" do they have with the player. Control means cost control.
But Bryant's agent, the boisterous Scott Boras, comes to the annual Winter Meetings with a chip on his shoulder. He again cries foul on how the Cubs treated his star client.
Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said the club has been aware of the Major League Baseball Players Association action since May. “Nothing’s really changed since then,” Hoyer said. “The fact that the news came out today doesn’t really change anything about where we are. Obviously, we feel like we were in the right, but I’m not going to comment on the case or open this back up.”
“It was filed in May – and to the best of my knowledge – it sits in the same place it has been,” Hoyer said. “It’s something we’ve known about for a long time. And it certainly doesn’t change our impression of the player or his representation at all. We’ve got a great relationship with Kris. We’ve got a great relationship with Scott.”
The Yahoo! Sports report also identified Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco as involved in the grievance process. Franco (170) and Bryant (171) finished just short of the 172 days needed for a full year of service, closing their free-agent windows until after the 2021 season.
Setting service-time clocks for elite young players is essentially viewed as standard operating procedure within front offices and Bryant became a billboard for the issue in spring training.
Bryant – the second overall pick in the 2013 draft – began this year as Baseball America’s No. 1 prospect after hitting .325 with 43 homers and 110 RBI in 2014.
“I think Kris proved his point that he didn’t need any further minor-league (experience),” Boras said during last month’s GM meetings in South Florida. “Unless you can argue the seven games of Triple-A baseball dramatically allowed him to improve, I think he proved his point that he’s an All-Star player and a huge part of a franchise. Our point was that in the ethic of the game, I think it’s good for Kris – and for the fans and everyone (else) – that they understand that the rules of the game often allow teams to do things that are unrelated to the best interests of the team or the true talent evaluation of the player," Boras said.
He added, “It’s perfectly appropriate under the rules for clubs to say that they can do that. I just think you (should) have (better rules), a better ethic to it. Because in the end, we want to make sure our fans know the best players are always playing in the big leagues all the time.”
But it is part of the rules and the teams have a right to use the rules to their benefit. It is not that Bryant will be starving or not have his own free agency payday down the road. It is not an ethical issue but a contractual one.
And with the current CBA expiring after next season, this topic will be brought up by the players' agents as something that needs to be changed. The owners will fight back, knowing that the "sports bubble" of cable and network television money may soon burst by all the young cable-cutters who are finding entertainment on other technology platforms.
Back in May, Kris Bryant's agent groused about the Cubs "holding back" his star player from the major leagues. But it standard procedure of front offices to balance promoting rookies to the major league roster vs. how many "years of control" do they have with the player. Control means cost control.
But Bryant's agent, the boisterous Scott Boras, comes to the annual Winter Meetings with a chip on his shoulder. He again cries foul on how the Cubs treated his star client.
Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said the club has been aware of the Major League Baseball Players Association action since May. “Nothing’s really changed since then,” Hoyer said. “The fact that the news came out today doesn’t really change anything about where we are. Obviously, we feel like we were in the right, but I’m not going to comment on the case or open this back up.”
“It was filed in May – and to the best of my knowledge – it sits in the same place it has been,” Hoyer said. “It’s something we’ve known about for a long time. And it certainly doesn’t change our impression of the player or his representation at all. We’ve got a great relationship with Kris. We’ve got a great relationship with Scott.”
The Yahoo! Sports report also identified Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco as involved in the grievance process. Franco (170) and Bryant (171) finished just short of the 172 days needed for a full year of service, closing their free-agent windows until after the 2021 season.
Setting service-time clocks for elite young players is essentially viewed as standard operating procedure within front offices and Bryant became a billboard for the issue in spring training.
Bryant – the second overall pick in the 2013 draft – began this year as Baseball America’s No. 1 prospect after hitting .325 with 43 homers and 110 RBI in 2014.
“I think Kris proved his point that he didn’t need any further minor-league (experience),” Boras said during last month’s GM meetings in South Florida. “Unless you can argue the seven games of Triple-A baseball dramatically allowed him to improve, I think he proved his point that he’s an All-Star player and a huge part of a franchise. Our point was that in the ethic of the game, I think it’s good for Kris – and for the fans and everyone (else) – that they understand that the rules of the game often allow teams to do things that are unrelated to the best interests of the team or the true talent evaluation of the player," Boras said.
He added, “It’s perfectly appropriate under the rules for clubs to say that they can do that. I just think you (should) have (better rules), a better ethic to it. Because in the end, we want to make sure our fans know the best players are always playing in the big leagues all the time.”
But it is part of the rules and the teams have a right to use the rules to their benefit. It is not that Bryant will be starving or not have his own free agency payday down the road. It is not an ethical issue but a contractual one.
And with the current CBA expiring after next season, this topic will be brought up by the players' agents as something that needs to be changed. The owners will fight back, knowing that the "sports bubble" of cable and network television money may soon burst by all the young cable-cutters who are finding entertainment on other technology platforms.
November 23, 2015
MOST VALUABLE
Kris Bryant won the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Joe Maddon won the NL Manager of the Year award.
Who was more valuable to the Cubs 2015 season?
Bryant had a stellar 5.9 WAR. I previously calculated that Maddon's managerial WAR was 7.0. Bryant's WAR could have increased by .40 WAR if he was not held back at the beginning of the season. This is a bar debate with no correct answer.
How does Bryant compare to other Cubs ROY?
In 1961, Billy Williams won with a 1.2 WAR. His Hall of Fame career of 16 full seasons yielded a 63.5 WAR. This is the gold standard for Cub ROY winners.
In 1962, Ken Hubbs won the award with a replacement level zero WAR. This must have been a down year in the NL, because Hubbs led the league in strike outs. He must have been an exceptional defender. Tragically, he was killed in an accident and he only played 2 full seasons in the majors (with accrued 1.1 WAR).
In 1989, Jerome Walton won with a 1.9 WAR. He was one of the those "five tool" players that GMs at the time started to fawn over. Over Walton's 10 year ML career, he amassed only a 3.7 WAR.
In 1998, Kerry Wood won the award with a 3.9 WAR. The next year he was injured (an omen for his career), but in 14 seasons he did end with a 26.7 WAR.
In 2008, Geo Soto won the rookie award with a 3.3 WAR, which was unique because there were few power hitting catchers in the league. After 8 seasons, Soto has a 11.4 WAR. He is still an active major leaguer.
Bryant's rookie season (measured by WAR) was 4.9 times better than Williams' rookie year. Bryant's single season WAR is 9.2 percent of Williams' career WAR. Clearly, Bryant is the "best" Cub rookie of the year winner.
But as the list foretells, a ROY plaque does not mean a long or stellar career.
If you use 2.0 WAR as being a "starter" level, only Williams meets that standard. Wood is at 1.9 and Soto is at 1.425. That means one in five ROY winners have very good major league careers.
Bryant and the Cubs should be proud of the ROY achievement, but it does not mean Bryant will be guaranteed a Hall of Fame plaque in Cooperstown.
Joe Maddon won the NL Manager of the Year award.
Who was more valuable to the Cubs 2015 season?
Bryant had a stellar 5.9 WAR. I previously calculated that Maddon's managerial WAR was 7.0. Bryant's WAR could have increased by .40 WAR if he was not held back at the beginning of the season. This is a bar debate with no correct answer.
How does Bryant compare to other Cubs ROY?
In 1961, Billy Williams won with a 1.2 WAR. His Hall of Fame career of 16 full seasons yielded a 63.5 WAR. This is the gold standard for Cub ROY winners.
In 1962, Ken Hubbs won the award with a replacement level zero WAR. This must have been a down year in the NL, because Hubbs led the league in strike outs. He must have been an exceptional defender. Tragically, he was killed in an accident and he only played 2 full seasons in the majors (with accrued 1.1 WAR).
In 1989, Jerome Walton won with a 1.9 WAR. He was one of the those "five tool" players that GMs at the time started to fawn over. Over Walton's 10 year ML career, he amassed only a 3.7 WAR.
In 1998, Kerry Wood won the award with a 3.9 WAR. The next year he was injured (an omen for his career), but in 14 seasons he did end with a 26.7 WAR.
In 2008, Geo Soto won the rookie award with a 3.3 WAR, which was unique because there were few power hitting catchers in the league. After 8 seasons, Soto has a 11.4 WAR. He is still an active major leaguer.
Bryant's rookie season (measured by WAR) was 4.9 times better than Williams' rookie year. Bryant's single season WAR is 9.2 percent of Williams' career WAR. Clearly, Bryant is the "best" Cub rookie of the year winner.
But as the list foretells, a ROY plaque does not mean a long or stellar career.
If you use 2.0 WAR as being a "starter" level, only Williams meets that standard. Wood is at 1.9 and Soto is at 1.425. That means one in five ROY winners have very good major league careers.
Bryant and the Cubs should be proud of the ROY achievement, but it does not mean Bryant will be guaranteed a Hall of Fame plaque in Cooperstown.
October 7, 2015
FIRST GUESSING
I think Maddon is overdoing it, again.
Word is that he will start Tommy LaStella at third base,
move Bryant to the big LF area, and move Schwarber to RF.
Why mix and match now?
LaStella is not a starter. He is not the best infield defender
(Baez). And Coghlan has more power than LaStella,
which is more important in a close game with a fastball
pitcher like Cole on the mound.
No, you play your best your best eight starters from the start of the game.
If Schwarber is a liability in the wide acreage of LF, move him to right field.
He has already played a couple games there. Then insert Coghlan in LF,
and keep Bryant at his natural position, third.
With Arrieta on the mound, there should be less emphasis on defense because
he is a strike out pitcher with command. Against Cole, you need quick offense
and power bats in the lineup.
Word is that he will start Tommy LaStella at third base,
move Bryant to the big LF area, and move Schwarber to RF.
Why mix and match now?
LaStella is not a starter. He is not the best infield defender
(Baez). And Coghlan has more power than LaStella,
which is more important in a close game with a fastball
pitcher like Cole on the mound.
No, you play your best your best eight starters from the start of the game.
If Schwarber is a liability in the wide acreage of LF, move him to right field.
He has already played a couple games there. Then insert Coghlan in LF,
and keep Bryant at his natural position, third.
With Arrieta on the mound, there should be less emphasis on defense because
he is a strike out pitcher with command. Against Cole, you need quick offense
and power bats in the lineup.
October 5, 2015
THE CUBS SEASON WAR
The 2015 Cubs surprised the world by going 97-65. They ended 20 games better than my pre-season prediction. The Pythagorean record for the Cubs this year was 90-72. I equate the difference in manager Joe Maddon, who would get a 7.0 WAR, for his unique style of getting a team of veterans and youngsters to gel in such a short period of time.
But the Cubs team was really dominated by their starting players, with three who really carried the team on their backs and into the playoffs.
Regular season position players/WAR:
Montero, c 1.8
Rizzo, lf 6.3
Russell, ss 3.4
Castro, 2b 0.7
Bryant, 3b 6.0
Coghlan, lf 1.9
Fowler, cf 2.2
Soler, rf (0.1)
Position starters totaled 22.2 WAR of the team total 23.3 WAR, or 95.3% of total offense WAR.
Regular season starting pitchers and closer/WAR:
Arrieta, sp 8.6
Lester, sp 2.9
Hendricks, sp 1.7
Hammel, sp 1.6
Haren, sp 0.2
Rondon, cl 2.1
These key pitchers totalled 17.1 WAR of the team total 18.5 WAR or 92.4% of total pitching WAR.
Arrieta's individual WAR was 50.3 % of the total team pitching WAR.
Rizzo's individual WAR was 27% of the total team offense WAR.
Bryant's individual WAR was 25.75% of the total team offense WAR.
Arrieta, Rizzo and Bryant carried more than half their position team WAR.
Combined, these three players had 50% of total team WAR.
But the Cubs team was really dominated by their starting players, with three who really carried the team on their backs and into the playoffs.
Regular season position players/WAR:
Montero, c 1.8
Rizzo, lf 6.3
Russell, ss 3.4
Castro, 2b 0.7
Bryant, 3b 6.0
Coghlan, lf 1.9
Fowler, cf 2.2
Soler, rf (0.1)
Position starters totaled 22.2 WAR of the team total 23.3 WAR, or 95.3% of total offense WAR.
Regular season starting pitchers and closer/WAR:
Arrieta, sp 8.6
Lester, sp 2.9
Hendricks, sp 1.7
Hammel, sp 1.6
Haren, sp 0.2
Rondon, cl 2.1
These key pitchers totalled 17.1 WAR of the team total 18.5 WAR or 92.4% of total pitching WAR.
Arrieta's individual WAR was 50.3 % of the total team pitching WAR.
Rizzo's individual WAR was 27% of the total team offense WAR.
Bryant's individual WAR was 25.75% of the total team offense WAR.
Arrieta, Rizzo and Bryant carried more than half their position team WAR.
Combined, these three players had 50% of total team WAR.
August 3, 2015
MADDONING GAME
It was one of those unnerving games.
The whole purpose of video replay was to avoid arguments between managers and umpires.
On a stretch play at first base, the runner was called safe because Anthony Rizzo did not keep his
foot on the base. Fair enough, but Joe Maddon challenged the play. It was upheld. Maddon went out to argue, and immediately got tossed by the umpire. Maddon had the right to challenge the play, but he was very dumb in arguing after the replay when the call was upheld.
The next dumb play occurred on the base paths. The Cubs, like most major league teams, have troubles running the bases. It is incredible that teams don't teach base running fundamentals anymore. Or that players don't care how to run to and slide into each base.
Kris Bryant hit a single to center which was going to score a runner at home. The throw was cut off as Bryant was trying to stretch his single to second on the throw. The cut-off throw to second was close but Bryant slide in head-first into second to beat the tag. In the process Bryant's body slide into the second baseman who applied a hard tag to his head and neck.
As a result, Bryant complained that he was "woozy" to the point of being taken out of the game.
Sports teams are well aware of concussions. There are new treatment protocols to protect athletes from brain injuries.
There was no reason for Bryant to slide head first into second base. Studies have shown that a head first slide into the bag is slower than a regular slide. Also, it is more dangerous to slide head first into the play.
The Cubs still won the game without Maddon on the bench or Bryant playing the rest of the game. But neither of those events should have happened in the game.
Also as a footnote, people were puzzled when James Russell batted in the pitcher's spot late in Sunday's game. Well, it is because the Cubs are carrying no bench players. With Bryant taken out for injury, only Ross and Denorfia were left on the bench. The Cubs are carrying 14 pitchers at the moment, which means only three position reserves. That is also maddening.
The whole purpose of video replay was to avoid arguments between managers and umpires.
On a stretch play at first base, the runner was called safe because Anthony Rizzo did not keep his
foot on the base. Fair enough, but Joe Maddon challenged the play. It was upheld. Maddon went out to argue, and immediately got tossed by the umpire. Maddon had the right to challenge the play, but he was very dumb in arguing after the replay when the call was upheld.
The next dumb play occurred on the base paths. The Cubs, like most major league teams, have troubles running the bases. It is incredible that teams don't teach base running fundamentals anymore. Or that players don't care how to run to and slide into each base.
Kris Bryant hit a single to center which was going to score a runner at home. The throw was cut off as Bryant was trying to stretch his single to second on the throw. The cut-off throw to second was close but Bryant slide in head-first into second to beat the tag. In the process Bryant's body slide into the second baseman who applied a hard tag to his head and neck.
As a result, Bryant complained that he was "woozy" to the point of being taken out of the game.
Sports teams are well aware of concussions. There are new treatment protocols to protect athletes from brain injuries.
There was no reason for Bryant to slide head first into second base. Studies have shown that a head first slide into the bag is slower than a regular slide. Also, it is more dangerous to slide head first into the play.
The Cubs still won the game without Maddon on the bench or Bryant playing the rest of the game. But neither of those events should have happened in the game.
Also as a footnote, people were puzzled when James Russell batted in the pitcher's spot late in Sunday's game. Well, it is because the Cubs are carrying no bench players. With Bryant taken out for injury, only Ross and Denorfia were left on the bench. The Cubs are carrying 14 pitchers at the moment, which means only three position reserves. That is also maddening.
June 16, 2015
STARTING ANOTHER CLOCK
The Cubs will call up catcher Kyle Schwarber to play DH during the next week in AL ball parks.
Schwarber, 22, has been playing in Class AA Tennessee. In 58 games, he has hit 13 HR, 39 RBI and had a .320 BA.
In comparison, in 2014 Kris Bryant was also 22 in AA ball. In 68 games, he hit 22 HR, 58 RBI and had a .355 BA.
The plan is clear. The idea is to get Schwarber some major league experience then put him back in AAA Iowa to finish his quick development. A few scouts believe Schwarber has the best bat skills in the organization. He was drafted as a catcher, but he readily admits that he was never fully taught how to catch games. In the Cub system, he has played mostly catcher, but also some left field and DH (17 games in Tennessee this year). The Cubs anticipated calling him up some time this season with those DH at-bats (which is sometimes difficult for position players to adjust to, i.e. Adam LaRoche with the White Sox.)
By calling up Schwarber, it starts his major league service time earlier than many people expected since the Cubs are all about long term control of their prospects. But it does acclimate Schwarber to the intense Chicago media in a non-pressure situation.
With Miguel Montero beginning to slump, and David Ross never considered an offensive force (currently batting .167), the idea of having Schwarber in a September run is a possibility since Joe Maddon liked the idea of having three catchers on his roster. Schwarber gives him the flexibility to have a real bench person who has played multiple positions.
Many thought that the Cubs would force Bryant to LF. But Bryant is clearly more comfortable playing third base. He has played well enough to stay there. The same could be true for Schwarber if he sticks at catcher, it would give the Cubs a major jolt in offensive production from that position.
The Cubs are currently in third place with a 34-27 record, 7 games behind the Cardinals. However, the Cubs have only a +6 run differential. With the second place Pirates playing much better, the Cubs need to find more consistent offense in order to stay within reach of the playoffs. The Schwarber move is part of that plan.
Schwarber, 22, has been playing in Class AA Tennessee. In 58 games, he has hit 13 HR, 39 RBI and had a .320 BA.
In comparison, in 2014 Kris Bryant was also 22 in AA ball. In 68 games, he hit 22 HR, 58 RBI and had a .355 BA.
The plan is clear. The idea is to get Schwarber some major league experience then put him back in AAA Iowa to finish his quick development. A few scouts believe Schwarber has the best bat skills in the organization. He was drafted as a catcher, but he readily admits that he was never fully taught how to catch games. In the Cub system, he has played mostly catcher, but also some left field and DH (17 games in Tennessee this year). The Cubs anticipated calling him up some time this season with those DH at-bats (which is sometimes difficult for position players to adjust to, i.e. Adam LaRoche with the White Sox.)
By calling up Schwarber, it starts his major league service time earlier than many people expected since the Cubs are all about long term control of their prospects. But it does acclimate Schwarber to the intense Chicago media in a non-pressure situation.
With Miguel Montero beginning to slump, and David Ross never considered an offensive force (currently batting .167), the idea of having Schwarber in a September run is a possibility since Joe Maddon liked the idea of having three catchers on his roster. Schwarber gives him the flexibility to have a real bench person who has played multiple positions.
Many thought that the Cubs would force Bryant to LF. But Bryant is clearly more comfortable playing third base. He has played well enough to stay there. The same could be true for Schwarber if he sticks at catcher, it would give the Cubs a major jolt in offensive production from that position.
The Cubs are currently in third place with a 34-27 record, 7 games behind the Cardinals. However, the Cubs have only a +6 run differential. With the second place Pirates playing much better, the Cubs need to find more consistent offense in order to stay within reach of the playoffs. The Schwarber move is part of that plan.
April 17, 2015
A NEW GOD ARRIVES
Kris Bryant today makes his major league debut. He was drafted two years ago by the Cubs, a move that I endorsed before the draft because Bryant was the best player in the draft. He has not disappointed in his short minor league career. Last season, in 138 games, he hit 43 HR, 110 RBI, 15 SB, .325 BA, .438 OBP and .661 SLG.
The "excuse" to call him up today is that injuries to Mike Olt and Tommy LaStella created a need to promote a third baseman. It happens to fall on the cut off date which allows the Cubs to hold onto Bryant for another contract year.
There is so much hype about Bryant's debut, it harks back to only two short years ago when the last great prospect, Brett Jackson, arrived at Wrigley. Jackson had hit 15 HR, 47 RBI, stole 27 bases, hit .256 with .338 OBP and .479 SLG prior to his call-up, but he was touted as a five-tool player. In his 44 game debut, Jackson failed. It started a quick fall out of the organization for the team's #1 prospect.
Or in 2008, Micah Hoffpauir in 71 games in AAA hit 25 HR, 100 RBI and hit .362. His major league career bloomed for a half season (with an All Star selection), then faded faster than a shooting star.
We expect Bryant to be different than Jackson or Hoffpauir. The front office hopes Bryant will be different. The business side of the team needs Bryant to be different.
Fans salivate that the "final" piece of the puzzle is now on the team. But this glosses over a growing issue - - - the stellar bullpen is starting to come a part with injuries (Grimm, now Ramirez). But for now, in a suddenly warm day in Chicago, the sunshine spotlight will fall on Bryant.
How Maddon uses him in the lineup is going to be interesting. Maddon continues to move people around the order. I would prefer that he settle in a set lineup card. By moving the traditional #2 hitter to the 9th spot, he is giving Rizzo and Soler an extra at-bat or two during a series. With Bryant in the middle of the order, Soler will have some greater protection.
1. Fowler cf
2. Rizzo 1b
3. Soler rf
4. Bryant 3b
5. Castro ss
6. Montero c
7. Coghlan lf
8. Pitcher p
9. Alcantara 2b
The "excuse" to call him up today is that injuries to Mike Olt and Tommy LaStella created a need to promote a third baseman. It happens to fall on the cut off date which allows the Cubs to hold onto Bryant for another contract year.
There is so much hype about Bryant's debut, it harks back to only two short years ago when the last great prospect, Brett Jackson, arrived at Wrigley. Jackson had hit 15 HR, 47 RBI, stole 27 bases, hit .256 with .338 OBP and .479 SLG prior to his call-up, but he was touted as a five-tool player. In his 44 game debut, Jackson failed. It started a quick fall out of the organization for the team's #1 prospect.
Or in 2008, Micah Hoffpauir in 71 games in AAA hit 25 HR, 100 RBI and hit .362. His major league career bloomed for a half season (with an All Star selection), then faded faster than a shooting star.
We expect Bryant to be different than Jackson or Hoffpauir. The front office hopes Bryant will be different. The business side of the team needs Bryant to be different.
Fans salivate that the "final" piece of the puzzle is now on the team. But this glosses over a growing issue - - - the stellar bullpen is starting to come a part with injuries (Grimm, now Ramirez). But for now, in a suddenly warm day in Chicago, the sunshine spotlight will fall on Bryant.
How Maddon uses him in the lineup is going to be interesting. Maddon continues to move people around the order. I would prefer that he settle in a set lineup card. By moving the traditional #2 hitter to the 9th spot, he is giving Rizzo and Soler an extra at-bat or two during a series. With Bryant in the middle of the order, Soler will have some greater protection.
1. Fowler cf
2. Rizzo 1b
3. Soler rf
4. Bryant 3b
5. Castro ss
6. Montero c
7. Coghlan lf
8. Pitcher p
9. Alcantara 2b
April 1, 2015
FOOL'S GOLD
Those who praise Theo Epstein's plan for long term success of the Cubs believe the decision to send Kris Bryant to the minors for 12 games in order to keep him under control for another full contract season is a no-brainer.
Yes, the current collective bargaining agreement harshly defines service time and club control of players. Yes, it makes sense to keep Bryant for a 7th year during his projected peak production years.
Yes, no matter what Epstein and the front office says, sending Bryant down was purely "a business decision."
Own it.
Instead, the Cubs use excuses that Bryant needs some final development. It could be adjusting to the outfield (but if that was so, he could have played more than one game in LF during spring training) or resting his sore shoulder (that is what the DL is for).
Owner Tom Ricketts has said time and time again to fans that money would be no object in fielding a championship caliber team. The Cubs went out and spent $155 million on pitcher Jon Lester, who happens to be nursing a dead arm. The Cubs still owe Edwin Jackson $26 million in dead money. So if the Cubs truly believe money is no issue, then it should not matter what Bryant is worth in Year 7.
Own it. Pay it.
Unless of course, you don't want to pay market value to Bryant in Year 7. A small market team would be desperate to keep a star player, a draw, for as long as possible at a 25% discount (last year of arbitration to FMV). People perceive the Cubs as not a small market team, but at times they act like one.
When management says there are only one or two players away from the playoffs, do they really mean what they say? Ricketts said that in Year One and beyond as the team sunk to the bottom of the barrel. But Epstein's plan was to be bad in order to get high draft picks and more signing bonus money. On paper, it is working as the scouting services and writers believe the Cubs have one of the strongest farm systems in the game.
A small market team trades "hope" for fan support. Small market teams must rely on their farm system and prospect player development in order to compete against large market clubs. The Cubs have marketed "hope" for the past three seasons. Fans have being putting up top dollar to see the touted prospects. It is a tease to sell a mega-prospect to season ticket holders, then withhold his debut.
Some seasoned fans are tuned into this drama as the Cubs were advertising last weekend that Opening Night tickets were still available for purchase (as part of 12 game season ticket packages). That in itself is surprising considering the Cubs don't have any bleacher seats available for that game.
Fans really don't care about Bryant's Year 7. If he is good, the Cubs said money was no object.
But there is no guarantee that Bryant will even be a Cub 7 years from now. Or that he will command superstar contract status.
Here is a historical list of the Cubs top prospects:
2015: Bryant, waiting in AAA
2014: Javy Baez, demoted to Iowa
2013: Baez
2012: Brett Jackson, demoted and out of the organization
2011: Chris Archer, traded for Matt Garza, starter for the Rays
2010: Starlin Castro, Cubs starting shortstop
2009: Josh Vitters, demoted and out of the organization
2008: Vitters
2007: Felix Pie, bench journeyman out of the organization
2006: Pie
2005: Brian Dopirak, out of baseball
2004: Angel Guzman, journeyman pitcher who mostly played outside organization
2003: Hee Seop Choi, out of baseball
2002: Mark Prior, injury killed career early
2001: Corey Patterson, bench journeyman out of the organization
2000: Patterson
Bryant's closest comparison is Jackson, who was great in the minors but only had a cup of coffee in the majors (the strikeout ratio at the plate doomed his playing career). Baez is following in Jackson's footsteps. One would hope Bryant would be different. But then, Micah Hoffpauir destroyed minor league pitching in 2008 and 2010 but his Cub career quickly fizzled out after 2.5 seasons.
Whether Bryant is real gold (which the vast majority including myself believe) or fool's gold can only be determined by his actual playing time in the majors. Does he have anything further to learn in the minors? No. Did the Cubs have some reason to keep a valuable asset under control for the longest possible time? Yes. Does control issues matter when you are projecting a fight for a playoff spot this year? No.
Perhaps, the real issue is the Cubs mixed messages to fans. The flames of championship fireworks is what people have latched onto - - - because it is a good story. But the cold water of reality is that there are so many variables and historical evidence that a prospect's resume is no indication of future success that people should be more guarded with their expectations.
But guarded expectations does not sell tickets.
Yes, the current collective bargaining agreement harshly defines service time and club control of players. Yes, it makes sense to keep Bryant for a 7th year during his projected peak production years.
Yes, no matter what Epstein and the front office says, sending Bryant down was purely "a business decision."
Own it.
Instead, the Cubs use excuses that Bryant needs some final development. It could be adjusting to the outfield (but if that was so, he could have played more than one game in LF during spring training) or resting his sore shoulder (that is what the DL is for).
Owner Tom Ricketts has said time and time again to fans that money would be no object in fielding a championship caliber team. The Cubs went out and spent $155 million on pitcher Jon Lester, who happens to be nursing a dead arm. The Cubs still owe Edwin Jackson $26 million in dead money. So if the Cubs truly believe money is no issue, then it should not matter what Bryant is worth in Year 7.
Own it. Pay it.
Unless of course, you don't want to pay market value to Bryant in Year 7. A small market team would be desperate to keep a star player, a draw, for as long as possible at a 25% discount (last year of arbitration to FMV). People perceive the Cubs as not a small market team, but at times they act like one.
When management says there are only one or two players away from the playoffs, do they really mean what they say? Ricketts said that in Year One and beyond as the team sunk to the bottom of the barrel. But Epstein's plan was to be bad in order to get high draft picks and more signing bonus money. On paper, it is working as the scouting services and writers believe the Cubs have one of the strongest farm systems in the game.
A small market team trades "hope" for fan support. Small market teams must rely on their farm system and prospect player development in order to compete against large market clubs. The Cubs have marketed "hope" for the past three seasons. Fans have being putting up top dollar to see the touted prospects. It is a tease to sell a mega-prospect to season ticket holders, then withhold his debut.
Some seasoned fans are tuned into this drama as the Cubs were advertising last weekend that Opening Night tickets were still available for purchase (as part of 12 game season ticket packages). That in itself is surprising considering the Cubs don't have any bleacher seats available for that game.
Fans really don't care about Bryant's Year 7. If he is good, the Cubs said money was no object.
But there is no guarantee that Bryant will even be a Cub 7 years from now. Or that he will command superstar contract status.
Here is a historical list of the Cubs top prospects:
2015: Bryant, waiting in AAA
2014: Javy Baez, demoted to Iowa
2013: Baez
2012: Brett Jackson, demoted and out of the organization
2011: Chris Archer, traded for Matt Garza, starter for the Rays
2010: Starlin Castro, Cubs starting shortstop
2009: Josh Vitters, demoted and out of the organization
2008: Vitters
2007: Felix Pie, bench journeyman out of the organization
2006: Pie
2005: Brian Dopirak, out of baseball
2004: Angel Guzman, journeyman pitcher who mostly played outside organization
2003: Hee Seop Choi, out of baseball
2002: Mark Prior, injury killed career early
2001: Corey Patterson, bench journeyman out of the organization
2000: Patterson
Bryant's closest comparison is Jackson, who was great in the minors but only had a cup of coffee in the majors (the strikeout ratio at the plate doomed his playing career). Baez is following in Jackson's footsteps. One would hope Bryant would be different. But then, Micah Hoffpauir destroyed minor league pitching in 2008 and 2010 but his Cub career quickly fizzled out after 2.5 seasons.
Whether Bryant is real gold (which the vast majority including myself believe) or fool's gold can only be determined by his actual playing time in the majors. Does he have anything further to learn in the minors? No. Did the Cubs have some reason to keep a valuable asset under control for the longest possible time? Yes. Does control issues matter when you are projecting a fight for a playoff spot this year? No.
Perhaps, the real issue is the Cubs mixed messages to fans. The flames of championship fireworks is what people have latched onto - - - because it is a good story. But the cold water of reality is that there are so many variables and historical evidence that a prospect's resume is no indication of future success that people should be more guarded with their expectations.
But guarded expectations does not sell tickets.
March 30, 2015
CUBS BIG MOVES
The Cubs made its big spring roster moves. Kris Bryant and Addison Russell were reassigned to Iowa (because they are not yet on the 40 man roster) and Javy Baez was optioned to AAA (each player has three options years).
The reasons are clear but not without some controversy.
Bryant, who leads the majors with nine spring training home runs and battied .425 (17-for-40) with 15 RBIs in 14 games, was sent to the minors to start the season so that the Cubs will gain an extra year until he is eligible for free agency. Bryant's agent and many fans railed at the fact that the Cubs would put "a business decision" ahead of having the best 25 players on the field for opening day. And considering the Cubs ownership and management have told fans that the team is going to compete for the NL Central title and playoffs this year, not having probably your best hitter in the minors seems two-faced.
Further, the business decision is all based on the assumption that Bryant will still be productive SIX years from now. If you are in "win now" mode, you play your best players because your team may only have a small, one year window of opportunity (see, 2005 White Sox).
The Cubs claim that it was for developmental reasons. When Theo Epstein came to Chicago, he did have this arbitrary philosophy that minor league players need 500 AAA at-bats before being promoted to the major leagues. Bryant has had 297 ABs in AAA so far. That would mean Bryant is going to be in Iowa for more than the estimated two weeks since 200 ABs equates to another 35-40 games played for him to reach the 500 threshold. The Cubs will not admit this, but keeping Bryant down longer this season will help stop him from reaching Super Two status (the top 22 percent of rookie players in the game get a chance at early arbitration year).
It may take 30 games to train Bryant in left field duties. That is supposedly the plan if Mike Olt can be a passable third baseman. But based on Olt's Cub performance to date, Bryant is just as good fielder and a significantly better hitter than Olt. The Cubs have no other seasoned third baseman on the roster.
This could mean shortstop Russell, currently blocked by Starlin Castro, may also have to learn a new position in Iowa: third base. Russell looks like he has the body type that will fill out over time. He does have the arm strength to play the position. It was no surprise that despite batted .324 with a homer and six RBIs this spring, Russell was being sent to Iowa.
The Baez demotion took some people by surprise, maybe including manager Joe Maddon who has campaigned for days in keeping Baez on the roster for his fine defense and base running skills. But Baez struggled mightily this spring, batting just .173 with one homer, one RBI and 20 strikeouts in 52 at-bats. The slugging infielder had a whopping 95 strikeouts in 213 at-bats with the Cubs last season.
Baez has also not taken well to coaching in regard to his swing mechanics. The Cubs staff has tried to get Baez to shorten up his loopy power swing to cut down on the holes in the zone. The Cubs staff has also tried to get Baez to shorten his leg kick swing trigger. Apparently he tries the new mechanics in the batting cage, but not in game situations. Some felt that keeping Baez on the major league roster, he could get batting advice from the major league hitting coach and Maddon.
The fall out for these three roster moves is apparent:
Olt wins the starting third base position by default.
Arismendy Alcantara and Tommy LaStella will probably platoon at second base. Alcantara played CF for the Cubs last season, but is a natural second baseman who has some power. As camp began, LaStella was perceived as a utility-bench player.
The noise about trading Castro will die off with the move of Russell. But if Russell is not going to switch to third (or second if Alcantara returns to supersub role and Baez fails to cut down on strikeouts), then the pressure will be on management to move either Castro or Russell for a bigger piece of the championship puzzle (for example, a deal for major league ace starter like Cole Hamels).
The reasons are clear but not without some controversy.
Bryant, who leads the majors with nine spring training home runs and battied .425 (17-for-40) with 15 RBIs in 14 games, was sent to the minors to start the season so that the Cubs will gain an extra year until he is eligible for free agency. Bryant's agent and many fans railed at the fact that the Cubs would put "a business decision" ahead of having the best 25 players on the field for opening day. And considering the Cubs ownership and management have told fans that the team is going to compete for the NL Central title and playoffs this year, not having probably your best hitter in the minors seems two-faced.
Further, the business decision is all based on the assumption that Bryant will still be productive SIX years from now. If you are in "win now" mode, you play your best players because your team may only have a small, one year window of opportunity (see, 2005 White Sox).
The Cubs claim that it was for developmental reasons. When Theo Epstein came to Chicago, he did have this arbitrary philosophy that minor league players need 500 AAA at-bats before being promoted to the major leagues. Bryant has had 297 ABs in AAA so far. That would mean Bryant is going to be in Iowa for more than the estimated two weeks since 200 ABs equates to another 35-40 games played for him to reach the 500 threshold. The Cubs will not admit this, but keeping Bryant down longer this season will help stop him from reaching Super Two status (the top 22 percent of rookie players in the game get a chance at early arbitration year).
It may take 30 games to train Bryant in left field duties. That is supposedly the plan if Mike Olt can be a passable third baseman. But based on Olt's Cub performance to date, Bryant is just as good fielder and a significantly better hitter than Olt. The Cubs have no other seasoned third baseman on the roster.
This could mean shortstop Russell, currently blocked by Starlin Castro, may also have to learn a new position in Iowa: third base. Russell looks like he has the body type that will fill out over time. He does have the arm strength to play the position. It was no surprise that despite batted .324 with a homer and six RBIs this spring, Russell was being sent to Iowa.
The Baez demotion took some people by surprise, maybe including manager Joe Maddon who has campaigned for days in keeping Baez on the roster for his fine defense and base running skills. But Baez struggled mightily this spring, batting just .173 with one homer, one RBI and 20 strikeouts in 52 at-bats. The slugging infielder had a whopping 95 strikeouts in 213 at-bats with the Cubs last season.
Baez has also not taken well to coaching in regard to his swing mechanics. The Cubs staff has tried to get Baez to shorten up his loopy power swing to cut down on the holes in the zone. The Cubs staff has also tried to get Baez to shorten his leg kick swing trigger. Apparently he tries the new mechanics in the batting cage, but not in game situations. Some felt that keeping Baez on the major league roster, he could get batting advice from the major league hitting coach and Maddon.
The fall out for these three roster moves is apparent:
Olt wins the starting third base position by default.
Arismendy Alcantara and Tommy LaStella will probably platoon at second base. Alcantara played CF for the Cubs last season, but is a natural second baseman who has some power. As camp began, LaStella was perceived as a utility-bench player.
The noise about trading Castro will die off with the move of Russell. But if Russell is not going to switch to third (or second if Alcantara returns to supersub role and Baez fails to cut down on strikeouts), then the pressure will be on management to move either Castro or Russell for a bigger piece of the championship puzzle (for example, a deal for major league ace starter like Cole Hamels).
March 28, 2015
THE SCHILL
Theo Epstein was in the broadcast booth with color analyst and former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling. In their discussion, Schilling badgered Epstein about the Kris Bryant situation. Schilling said there was no doubt that Bryant was one of the best 25 players in the Cubs organization, so he should be on the opening day roster. Clearly, this is the player-agent position in this service time debate.
Epstein responded that when he was in Boston, he had many "top 25 player" prospects but he never added them to the opening day roster. It was his view it was better to call them up during the season rather than the pressure of opening day.
Give Schilling credit for not accepting that explanation. He continued to press Epstein on why the Cubs are not giving Bryant an opening day start. "Is is all about business?" Schilling asked. Epstein tried to deflect that statement by saying Bryant needed more minor league time for "his development." Schilling was not buying that line either. As we have discussed, the Cubs by keeping Bryant down in the minors to below 172 days of service time can add a year of control on his contract rights. Therefore, based on the objective evidence, Bryant's assignment to Iowa at the end of camp is purely a business move on the part of the Cubs.
Because if Bryant is called up in two weeks, how much more "development" did he get in Iowa?
And this is contrary to Joe Maddon's position on Javy Baez. Baez has had a terrible spring at the plate. His long swing opens him up to missing balls outside the zone, and hampers his ability to adjust to pitch speeds. Maddon and the new batting coach have been trying to work with Baez about shortening his set up and swing to make more consistent contact. So far, those instructions have not yielded any change.
Under normal circumstances, Baez would have been a candidate to start the season in the minors to work on developing his new swing. But Maddon likes Baez's defense so much, he wants to keep him on the roster and allow his major league coaching staff continue to work with Baez on his hitting.
So if Bryant is mashing it, and can play LF without mucking it up too badly, there is no logical reason for Bryant to be sent to Iowa and Baez to stay with the big club.
Epstein responded that when he was in Boston, he had many "top 25 player" prospects but he never added them to the opening day roster. It was his view it was better to call them up during the season rather than the pressure of opening day.
Give Schilling credit for not accepting that explanation. He continued to press Epstein on why the Cubs are not giving Bryant an opening day start. "Is is all about business?" Schilling asked. Epstein tried to deflect that statement by saying Bryant needed more minor league time for "his development." Schilling was not buying that line either. As we have discussed, the Cubs by keeping Bryant down in the minors to below 172 days of service time can add a year of control on his contract rights. Therefore, based on the objective evidence, Bryant's assignment to Iowa at the end of camp is purely a business move on the part of the Cubs.
Because if Bryant is called up in two weeks, how much more "development" did he get in Iowa?
And this is contrary to Joe Maddon's position on Javy Baez. Baez has had a terrible spring at the plate. His long swing opens him up to missing balls outside the zone, and hampers his ability to adjust to pitch speeds. Maddon and the new batting coach have been trying to work with Baez about shortening his set up and swing to make more consistent contact. So far, those instructions have not yielded any change.
Under normal circumstances, Baez would have been a candidate to start the season in the minors to work on developing his new swing. But Maddon likes Baez's defense so much, he wants to keep him on the roster and allow his major league coaching staff continue to work with Baez on his hitting.
So if Bryant is mashing it, and can play LF without mucking it up too badly, there is no logical reason for Bryant to be sent to Iowa and Baez to stay with the big club.
March 22, 2015
ANNUAL PISSING CONTEST
Every spring, sports agent Scott Boras gets on his soap box to yell at owners about holding back his talent from accumulating service time toward free agency. Boras wants his clients in the majors as fast as possible because that speeds up the clock on signing big money deals.
The CBA has many holding patterns clubs can use to stop the clock.
Boras is railing against the Cubs early announced plan to shelve his client, Kris Bryant, in Iowa at the beginning of this season from anywhere from three weeks to three months. If Bryant accumulates 172 service days in his first call up, then he can be a free agent one year earlier. If he does not, the Cubs effectively control his contract for an additional season (which projects to be near his peak production).
In addition, if when a stud young player hits his season season, he could earn an "early year" if he qualifies as a Super 2, in the top 22 percent of players between years 2 and 3 of club control.
An early arbitration hearing gives the player a salary boost, then raises the salary flow for future arbitrations or contract extensions.
Boras claims that the Cubs owe it to their fans to put the best team on the field from Day One. That best team would include Bryant. He is right in that assertion.
The Cubs counter by saying this is a business. Bryant is still just a prospect. He needs time to develop, even though he has crushed every level of minor league play. Bryant needs to work on better defense at third, or switch to learning LF which is best done in the minors. The Cubs have some valid development points they can make to hold back Bryant.
But sitting Bryant in the minors, based on ZiPS projections of a full season, could cost the Cubs at least 2 games. If the Cubs truly believe they can contend or win the NL Central, 2 games could be the difference between a championship and disappointment. But that is the risk that the Cubs are willing to take in order to hold onto Bryant for an extra year.
The CBA has many holding patterns clubs can use to stop the clock.
Boras is railing against the Cubs early announced plan to shelve his client, Kris Bryant, in Iowa at the beginning of this season from anywhere from three weeks to three months. If Bryant accumulates 172 service days in his first call up, then he can be a free agent one year earlier. If he does not, the Cubs effectively control his contract for an additional season (which projects to be near his peak production).
In addition, if when a stud young player hits his season season, he could earn an "early year" if he qualifies as a Super 2, in the top 22 percent of players between years 2 and 3 of club control.
An early arbitration hearing gives the player a salary boost, then raises the salary flow for future arbitrations or contract extensions.
Boras claims that the Cubs owe it to their fans to put the best team on the field from Day One. That best team would include Bryant. He is right in that assertion.
The Cubs counter by saying this is a business. Bryant is still just a prospect. He needs time to develop, even though he has crushed every level of minor league play. Bryant needs to work on better defense at third, or switch to learning LF which is best done in the minors. The Cubs have some valid development points they can make to hold back Bryant.
But sitting Bryant in the minors, based on ZiPS projections of a full season, could cost the Cubs at least 2 games. If the Cubs truly believe they can contend or win the NL Central, 2 games could be the difference between a championship and disappointment. But that is the risk that the Cubs are willing to take in order to hold onto Bryant for an extra year.
March 15, 2015
THE GOOD BAD PROBLEM
The Cubs have talked themselves into another problem.
First, it was owner Tom Ricketts who cheerleaded his thoughts to proclaim at the Cub convention that the 2015 squad was going to win the NL Central. Second, new Theo Epstein and his management crew seconded that sentiment, which put fans into an over-optimistic fever. Third, Joe Maddon came out of the box saying the same thing: the Cubs will win the division. Fourth, many players started repeating this hype.
All is well and good if there was a chance in hell for such instant success. But there are more believers than realists.
But since the team talked itself into promising a divisional championship, and a play off birth this year, Ricketts and management need to do whatever it takes to make that happen. They have obligated themselves to do whatever is reasonable and necessary to compete and win every contest this season as the Cardinals and Pirates will field strong teams.
So when #1 prospect comes to spring training, the media is told Kris Bryant will not make it to the opening day roster, even though the team traded away the caretaker 3B Luis Valbuena in the off-season. No, Bryant will have to stay in Iowa for business reasons, so to withhold the path to early free agency five years down the road. The fans don't want "business" reasons to interfere with "winning the division" assurances. Ricketts is a millionaire, the team is worth more than a billion dollars, pay Bryant when the time comes but play him now. There is no reason to candy coat a winning culture with a cheapskate excuse.
To complicate things is that Bryant is putting shock and awe in the stands. So far, Bryant's production has been Ruthian: 20 AB, 9, H, .450 BA, 6 HR, 9 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K, .522 OBP, 1.400 SLG and 1.922 OPS. Yes, spring training stats can be misleading but Bryant is so far ahead of any other Cub that it is more than noticeable. He is now in the direct comparison with Mike Trout rookie season.
So if the Cubs stick to their plan to stash Bryant in Iowa for no reason except to save money down the road, and the Cubs miss the playoffs by one, two, five, ten or X games because Bryant was not on the roster at the beginning, there could be a peasant revolt at Clark and Addison.
Because, fans know that if Bryant struggles on the opening day roster, the Cubs could send him back to Iowa to regain his form. The probability is that Bryant will not struggle when he hits the majors which means the Cubs management is in a bind. If they are lying about winning this season (in order to sell tickets and merchandise to pay for all the real estate projects) with the real projection championship run in two, three or four years from now, then holding back Bryant makes some sense (but not a lot). If management truly believes that this is the year for winning the NL Central, then it should field the best team possible - - - which includes starting Bryant at third base on Opening Night.
The Cubs painted themselves in a corner. They hyped the team and young prospects as champions, but are trying to hold back potentially their best player from the team.
UPDATE: Bryant was not in Sunday's line up due to minor "shoulder soreness." The team says he will be okay. But this is one of the reasons to keep Bryant off the opening day roster, a minor injury. The second is to keep him down to work on his fielding fundamentals.
The weekend radio sports talk shows were fairly livid about the prospect of Bryant not making the major league team from Day One. A few suggested the Cubs could get an extra year by sitting him down for the equivalent of 9 games instead of the projected 30+. If management has its way, then the team may lose 2 games with Bryant not on the roster. And if the team is supposed to "contend" for the division crown, two games is a lot.
First, it was owner Tom Ricketts who cheerleaded his thoughts to proclaim at the Cub convention that the 2015 squad was going to win the NL Central. Second, new Theo Epstein and his management crew seconded that sentiment, which put fans into an over-optimistic fever. Third, Joe Maddon came out of the box saying the same thing: the Cubs will win the division. Fourth, many players started repeating this hype.
All is well and good if there was a chance in hell for such instant success. But there are more believers than realists.
But since the team talked itself into promising a divisional championship, and a play off birth this year, Ricketts and management need to do whatever it takes to make that happen. They have obligated themselves to do whatever is reasonable and necessary to compete and win every contest this season as the Cardinals and Pirates will field strong teams.
So when #1 prospect comes to spring training, the media is told Kris Bryant will not make it to the opening day roster, even though the team traded away the caretaker 3B Luis Valbuena in the off-season. No, Bryant will have to stay in Iowa for business reasons, so to withhold the path to early free agency five years down the road. The fans don't want "business" reasons to interfere with "winning the division" assurances. Ricketts is a millionaire, the team is worth more than a billion dollars, pay Bryant when the time comes but play him now. There is no reason to candy coat a winning culture with a cheapskate excuse.
To complicate things is that Bryant is putting shock and awe in the stands. So far, Bryant's production has been Ruthian: 20 AB, 9, H, .450 BA, 6 HR, 9 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K, .522 OBP, 1.400 SLG and 1.922 OPS. Yes, spring training stats can be misleading but Bryant is so far ahead of any other Cub that it is more than noticeable. He is now in the direct comparison with Mike Trout rookie season.
So if the Cubs stick to their plan to stash Bryant in Iowa for no reason except to save money down the road, and the Cubs miss the playoffs by one, two, five, ten or X games because Bryant was not on the roster at the beginning, there could be a peasant revolt at Clark and Addison.
Because, fans know that if Bryant struggles on the opening day roster, the Cubs could send him back to Iowa to regain his form. The probability is that Bryant will not struggle when he hits the majors which means the Cubs management is in a bind. If they are lying about winning this season (in order to sell tickets and merchandise to pay for all the real estate projects) with the real projection championship run in two, three or four years from now, then holding back Bryant makes some sense (but not a lot). If management truly believes that this is the year for winning the NL Central, then it should field the best team possible - - - which includes starting Bryant at third base on Opening Night.
The Cubs painted themselves in a corner. They hyped the team and young prospects as champions, but are trying to hold back potentially their best player from the team.
UPDATE: Bryant was not in Sunday's line up due to minor "shoulder soreness." The team says he will be okay. But this is one of the reasons to keep Bryant off the opening day roster, a minor injury. The second is to keep him down to work on his fielding fundamentals.
The weekend radio sports talk shows were fairly livid about the prospect of Bryant not making the major league team from Day One. A few suggested the Cubs could get an extra year by sitting him down for the equivalent of 9 games instead of the projected 30+. If management has its way, then the team may lose 2 games with Bryant not on the roster. And if the team is supposed to "contend" for the division crown, two games is a lot.
February 7, 2015
IMPACT PROSPECTS
SB Nation believes that there are three possible "impact" prospects for 2015.
An impact prospect is a rookie who bursts on the scene as an unbelievable All-Star caliber player like the Angels Mike Trout.
An impact prospect is a rookie who bursts on the scene as an unbelievable All-Star caliber player like the Angels Mike Trout.
Kris Bryant is projected to be the best prospect in baseball.
In Double- and Triple-A, the 22-year-old
obliterated the competition, bashing 43 homers in 138 games while
batting .325. He probably strikes out too much, but the competition in
Triple-A isn't going to teach him anything: he'll never feel compelled
to adjust if he can put up Triple Crown numbers in spite of any issues.
PECOTA, which is often critical of prospects, sees Bryant batting
.261/.351/.515 as a rookie which would be a pretty good debut.
The Mets have the best pitching prospect in Noah
Syndergaard. But the Mets' rotation right now is set, with Bartolo Colon as fifth starter. Unless he is traded to a contender, or
someone gets hurt and a spot opens, then Syndergaard could be the one
filling it. The 21 year old starter managed to strike out nearly 10 batters per inning in Triple-A last season. He is expected to burst on the NY scene.
The White Sox have the makings
of a great rotation thanks to Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Jeff
Samardzija. If they were inclined, they could put 2014 first-round pick
Carlos Rodon in their rotation as well -- it won't be out of spring
training, but with only John Danks and Hector Noesi in his way, he just
might get that push sooner than later. Rodon has only thrown 24 innings
in the minors, but finished his first pro season at Triple-A. Rondon has incredible stuff (comparable to Sale's) and already ranks among the game's best
pitching prospects in spite of his inexperience. He could end up being a
midseason difference maker in that rotation, one that propels the White
Sox to the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
November 12, 2014
SHOOTING FROM THE HIP
A
report surfaced Tuesday night that the Cubs and Nationals were engaged
in trade discussions about starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann.
Paul Sullivan of the Tribune rebukes the story, stating a Cub source said there has been no discussions of a Zimmerman trade. "He is not available," according to the source.
At the moment Zimmerman would be a one-year rental. Zimmermann is owed $16.5 million in 2015 before becoming a free agent.
However, based on recent free-agent starting pitcher contracts, Zimmermann will be in line for more than $100 million. The guess here is that Zimmermann eventually signs for more than what Homer Bailey got (six years, $105 million) but less than what the Phillies gave Cliff Lee (five years, $120 million).
Something in the five-year, $115 million range seems appropriate for Zimmermann, who has a 2.96 ERA over the last three seasons in 96 starts
From the Cubs, the Phillies are likely seeking Kris Bryant and more in a Hamels trade. The Cubs appear unwilling to trade Bryant, their top prospect who hit .325 with 43 homers at Double A and Triple A this past season, his first full one in pro ball. That's just how negotiations begin.
Because Zimmermann is a rental, he would cost the Cubs less in the way of prospects. Chicago may be looking at parting with shortstop Starlin Castro in a proposed Zimmermann deal, or one of their lesser-but-still-intriguing prospects in utilityman Arismendy Alcantara or outfielder Albert Almora.
Other teams will be kicking the Cub tires for hot prospects like Bryant, Javy Baez and Addison Reed, because the Cubs have a surplus of infielders. The Cubs put a waiver claim on Cole Hamels last season, so that may indicate the team is willing to take on a $100 million pitching contract. The Phillies are having a fire sale now, and Hamels is still available in trade.
Zimmerman would cost less in trade than Hamels. Zimmerman's contract status versus Hamels' guarantees. The Cubs could flip Zimmerman at the deadline to restock their prospect list.
The problem with a megadeal at this time is that the Cubs really don't know what they really have with their prospects. Bryant could be the next Mike Schmidt or the next Mike Olt. In one respect, the highest value may be now, before any actual major league swings and misses. In another respect, if Bryant is the real deal, a starting All-Star position player is more valuable than a starting pitcher.
The Nationals would need an impact player in return since they are in championship mode. Alcantara does not make sense since the infield is set and Span in CF. Almora is still several years off. To trade Zimmerman, the Nats would need a major league ready pitcher in return (for at least depth) and the Cubs don't have anyone, unless you think Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has too many years of cost control to give up in a pitcher rental deal.
It is a long shot that the Cubs make a Zimmerman deal with the Nationals.
What is picking up early is a market for shortstops. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and Mariners are actively seeking a shortstop. The Cubs have three on the roster available for the right deal.
Paul Sullivan of the Tribune rebukes the story, stating a Cub source said there has been no discussions of a Zimmerman trade. "He is not available," according to the source.
At the moment Zimmerman would be a one-year rental. Zimmermann is owed $16.5 million in 2015 before becoming a free agent.
However, based on recent free-agent starting pitcher contracts, Zimmermann will be in line for more than $100 million. The guess here is that Zimmermann eventually signs for more than what Homer Bailey got (six years, $105 million) but less than what the Phillies gave Cliff Lee (five years, $120 million).
Something in the five-year, $115 million range seems appropriate for Zimmermann, who has a 2.96 ERA over the last three seasons in 96 starts
From the Cubs, the Phillies are likely seeking Kris Bryant and more in a Hamels trade. The Cubs appear unwilling to trade Bryant, their top prospect who hit .325 with 43 homers at Double A and Triple A this past season, his first full one in pro ball. That's just how negotiations begin.
Because Zimmermann is a rental, he would cost the Cubs less in the way of prospects. Chicago may be looking at parting with shortstop Starlin Castro in a proposed Zimmermann deal, or one of their lesser-but-still-intriguing prospects in utilityman Arismendy Alcantara or outfielder Albert Almora.
Other teams will be kicking the Cub tires for hot prospects like Bryant, Javy Baez and Addison Reed, because the Cubs have a surplus of infielders. The Cubs put a waiver claim on Cole Hamels last season, so that may indicate the team is willing to take on a $100 million pitching contract. The Phillies are having a fire sale now, and Hamels is still available in trade.
Zimmerman would cost less in trade than Hamels. Zimmerman's contract status versus Hamels' guarantees. The Cubs could flip Zimmerman at the deadline to restock their prospect list.
The problem with a megadeal at this time is that the Cubs really don't know what they really have with their prospects. Bryant could be the next Mike Schmidt or the next Mike Olt. In one respect, the highest value may be now, before any actual major league swings and misses. In another respect, if Bryant is the real deal, a starting All-Star position player is more valuable than a starting pitcher.
The Nationals would need an impact player in return since they are in championship mode. Alcantara does not make sense since the infield is set and Span in CF. Almora is still several years off. To trade Zimmerman, the Nats would need a major league ready pitcher in return (for at least depth) and the Cubs don't have anyone, unless you think Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has too many years of cost control to give up in a pitcher rental deal.
It is a long shot that the Cubs make a Zimmerman deal with the Nationals.
What is picking up early is a market for shortstops. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and Mariners are actively seeking a shortstop. The Cubs have three on the roster available for the right deal.
September 4, 2014
OUT OF POSITIONS
I don't really know why the Cubs continue down the Henry-Quade spectrum of playing second basemen all over the ball yard. Logan Watkins playing right field? Really? He plays well defensively at second. Alcantara in center? He is still learning the position on the fly which is very hard, since Jimmy Piersall said repeatedly that CF is the hardest outfield position to play. Baez is learning second, and is doing well, but when he fills in for Castro at short, Baez is much better SS than Castro.
I know the concept that managers and general managers like: versatility. If you can play more than one position, then the team has more options (platoons, double switches, etc.). But all those utility players, in general, have to be utility players because they can't hold down one position as a true starter. A team filled with utility players is just a replacement level team in training.
So it is a little surprising that Kyle Schwarber is being pegged as a catching prospect. In 72 pro games, he hit .344, 18 HR, 53 RBI and 1.061 OPS. He should start in Class AA in 2015, with a possible promotion to Iowa mid season if he continues to hit well.
Schwarber's draft scouting report showed that he was probably the best fundamental college hitter, but he did not have the defensive skill set (and body type) to be a catcher. Most organizations felt he was destined to play left field.
The same is actually the chord on third baseman Kris Bryant. His size and range questions had him moving his bat to left field. But Bryant has told the Cubs that he wants to continue to play third base. In 138 pro games, Bryant hit .325, 43 HR, 110 RBI and 1.098 OPS.
One takeaway from the success of both Schwarber and Bryant is that despite the perceived defensive short comings, both players are comfortable playing their current positions. And if they are comfortable on defense, then they have less to worry about at the plate.
It is in the Cubs best interest to accommodate them because the team has no alternative players who can put up .300 BA, 30 HR, 90 RBI production at catcher or third base.
You let them come to spring training and win their starting spots. If the next crop of prospects, like Addison Reed, are going to be the shortstop of the future, then Castro needs to move to another position or be traded to another team. That's how the system has worked for a century.
But by tagging Schwarber and Bryant as left fielders, you just move the position iceberg to the outfield but not solve the problem of getting the best hitters in the daily line up. Barring injuries, Jorge Soler is going to play right. Schwarber or Bryant do not have the speed to play center.
Here is the current "push" chart of prospects depth chart:
3B: Valbuena - - - -> Bryant
SS: Castro - - - > Russell
2B: Baez
1B: Rizzo
C: Castillo - - - > Schwarber
LF: Coghlan - - - > Castro?
CF: Alcantara - - - > Almora
RF: Soler
Valbuena, Coghlan, Watkins and Alcantara fall to their roles as utility players.
But this push chart also shows that despite the huzzah of a prospect pipeline, the Cubs organization is still very thin. But pundits believe that the team having so many similar good prospects is a "good problem" to have. The Cubs may have fallen in love with their collection of prospects, and over-value their talent level so as to freeze themselves out of key veteran trades in the future.
I know the concept that managers and general managers like: versatility. If you can play more than one position, then the team has more options (platoons, double switches, etc.). But all those utility players, in general, have to be utility players because they can't hold down one position as a true starter. A team filled with utility players is just a replacement level team in training.
So it is a little surprising that Kyle Schwarber is being pegged as a catching prospect. In 72 pro games, he hit .344, 18 HR, 53 RBI and 1.061 OPS. He should start in Class AA in 2015, with a possible promotion to Iowa mid season if he continues to hit well.
Schwarber's draft scouting report showed that he was probably the best fundamental college hitter, but he did not have the defensive skill set (and body type) to be a catcher. Most organizations felt he was destined to play left field.
The same is actually the chord on third baseman Kris Bryant. His size and range questions had him moving his bat to left field. But Bryant has told the Cubs that he wants to continue to play third base. In 138 pro games, Bryant hit .325, 43 HR, 110 RBI and 1.098 OPS.
One takeaway from the success of both Schwarber and Bryant is that despite the perceived defensive short comings, both players are comfortable playing their current positions. And if they are comfortable on defense, then they have less to worry about at the plate.
It is in the Cubs best interest to accommodate them because the team has no alternative players who can put up .300 BA, 30 HR, 90 RBI production at catcher or third base.
You let them come to spring training and win their starting spots. If the next crop of prospects, like Addison Reed, are going to be the shortstop of the future, then Castro needs to move to another position or be traded to another team. That's how the system has worked for a century.
But by tagging Schwarber and Bryant as left fielders, you just move the position iceberg to the outfield but not solve the problem of getting the best hitters in the daily line up. Barring injuries, Jorge Soler is going to play right. Schwarber or Bryant do not have the speed to play center.
Here is the current "push" chart of prospects depth chart:
3B: Valbuena - - - -> Bryant
SS: Castro - - - > Russell
2B: Baez
1B: Rizzo
C: Castillo - - - > Schwarber
LF: Coghlan - - - > Castro?
CF: Alcantara - - - > Almora
RF: Soler
Valbuena, Coghlan, Watkins and Alcantara fall to their roles as utility players.
But this push chart also shows that despite the huzzah of a prospect pipeline, the Cubs organization is still very thin. But pundits believe that the team having so many similar good prospects is a "good problem" to have. The Cubs may have fallen in love with their collection of prospects, and over-value their talent level so as to freeze themselves out of key veteran trades in the future.
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