November 30, 2014

BA RULE 5 DRAFT LIST

Baseball America, the bible of the minor leagues, has a list of the most intriguing prospects available at the winter meetings Rule 5 draft. Though the Cubs have a full 40 man roster, it is subject to at least three waivers to make room for other acquisitions. The Cubs, like most other teams that have picked a Rule 5 choice (and have to keep him on the major league roster for entire season), have had mixed results.

Here is the list with some personal commentary.

Steven Baron, c, Mariners: An excellent defensive catcher who made it to Double-A last year. His bat is light but he’s not completely lost at the plate, so a team in need of a backup catcher could do a lot worse. Both the Cubs and White Sox are in need for depth at catching. However, the White Sox are looking to upgrade their catcher right now, while the Cubs should be content with Castillo for another year (even despite the Martin FA reports). Baker was a nominal back up last season, so anything is an upgrade on the Cub roster.
Mark Canha, 1b, Marlins: A team looking for a backup corner bat could be interested. Canha has an above-average hit tool with average power. Primarily a first baseman, he can play third base or left field in a pinch, which gives him a potential backup role. He faced a numbers game with the Marlins, as Justin Bour (on the 40-man roster) has a pretty similar profile. Bour is a former Cub prospect, so from a valuation standpoint the Cubs probably will not be interested. The White Sox have added LaRoche to the 1B mix, but still need a back up third baseman.
Edgar de la Rosa, rhp, Tigers: Like velocity? The massive 6-foot-8 de la Rosa can run it up to 100 mph at his best and pairs it with a usable change-up. One Florida State League evaluator said he “goes to the mound with a 7 fastball every start.” He was a starter in high Class A this past season, but would fit in a big league bullpen. The White Sox love Big Arms and power pitchers. The White Sox have a need to shore up their bullpen. The White Sox also have not been hesitant to promote young arms to the team to be coached by pitching guru Don Cooper. If available, the White Sox could chose de la Rosa as a cheap alternative to additional free agent arms.
Delino DeShields, of, Astros: Some teams will be turned off by his well-documented problems with not always showing his best effort—he’s been pulled from multiple games over the years for not running out balls. But other teams may be intrigued by some of the best tools in the Rule 5 draft. The minors’ only 10-100 man ever (12 home runs, 101 steals in 2012), DeShields plays an adequate center field, can also play second base, has more pop than most speedsters and has shown excellent on-base skills. Can a change of scenery do a player a mental make-over? Maybe, maybe not. But since the Cubs have nothing really spectacular in the outfield (except the hope of Soler in RF), De Shields, or someone like him,  could actually give the team a real lead off hitter. Another cheap alternative to a free agent.
Jarlin Garcia, lhp, Marlins: Big arm who would be making a massive jump from low Class A Greensboro to the big leagues; Garcia has earned above-average grades for his fastball (91-94 mph most nights) and curve. He also finished strong, with a 1.03 ERA in his final 35 innings. Class A pitchers elevated to the majors rarely do well; the level of competition jump is too steep. Unless a team already has a solid bullpen, stashing a guy for mop up duty really regresses a pitcher's progress with little return. Most teams will pass here.
Mychal Givens, rhp, Orioles: The converted shortstop has plus velocity (93-95 mph), a solid slider and he throws from a low slot that makes it hard for righthanders to pick up the ball. This guy seems like a righty specialist/project that maybe a team with a deep bullpen can use. Does not fit into Cubs or White Sox plans.
Jandel Gustave, rhp, Astros: In a game in which power arms are coveted, Gustave throws as hard as anyone. Up to 100 mph at his best, Gustave would be making a massive leap to the big leagues. He struggled in the low Class A Midwest League. But a team that isn’t going to compete for a playoff spot in 2015 could decide to stash him in a limited role.  A better ceiling than Givens, but the same leap to the majors problems. But the White Sox brass could be awed by triple digit fastball to take a flyer on him.
Gregory Infante, rhp, Blue Jays: A big league alum (2010 with the White Sox), Infante can’t paint the corners, but his top-of-the-scale fastball (91-97 mph and has touched 100) plus an average slider was effective enough in limited action in Double-A and Triple-A last season. He’s throwing well in the Venezuelan League for La Guaira. A team without a proven or reliable 5th starter could go for a pitcher with some experience (and the White Sox know him), but the inability to control the plate means more minor league seasoning; pass.
Andrew McKirahan, lhp, Cubs: He’s a lefty who has come on lately. A reliever at Texas, McKirahan had Tommy John surgery in 2012 which cost him much of two seasons and has set him back in his development. He started to return to form this season as his fastball jumped up to 92-96 mph this year that he mixes with a fringe-average breaking ball. Just don’t expect him to be a lefty specialist. McKirahan has been tougher on righthanders than lefthanded hitters every where he’s gone since he returned to the mound after his surgery. Rarely do teams select a player who is basically still in rehab mode to a major league contract. This is why the Cubs did not protect him in the draft, injury history is a major factor for teams not to select a Rule 5 candidate.
Breyvic Valera, 2b, Cardinals: An athletic second baseman who had a great start in high Class A and was OK in Double-A last season, Valera also played in the Arizona Fall League (13-for-39). He has always drawn tons of walks but has zero power. He doesn’t play shortstop effectively, which limits his chances of sticking as a backup utility infielder but he can also play in the outfield. That said, the Cardinals acquired and protected middle infielders Ty Kelly and Dean Anna over keeping Valera. If the White Sox trade SS Ramirez in the off-season, the team may want to add depth in the middle infield. But Valera is too raw to give a bench position in 2015.