November 14, 2014

STANTON AND DELIVER

Giancarlo Stanton could be argued as the best major league baseball player in the NL (Clayton Kershaw fans excepted). Stanton, 25, has amassed a 21.2 career WAR in just 5 seasons, an average of 4.24 WAR/season. In his first year of arbitration, he was awarded $6.5 million. He has two arb years left before FA in 2017.

He is expected to break the bank either way. Several reports state that the Marlins are hot to get Stanton signed for a long, long term deal. ESPN reports it could be a 12 year $300 million deal, while CBS Sports thinks the number could be 13 years $320 million. This is record shattering territory.

Stanton commands these high numbers because of his consistent performance. Season WAR totals: 2.8, 4.1, 5.5, 2.3, and 6.5.  His career average for a 162 game season: 39 HR, 102 RBI, .271 BA.

If one uses $5 million/WAR valuation, then Stanton being paid $6.5 million in 2014 was a steal. His performance value would have been $32.5 million. Even if Stanton's arbitration award doubles, he is still only getting paid half his value.

So it may be in the best interests of the player (and his agent) to tap the current controlled value into a long term deal. Teams only do long term deals if it is advantageous to it. The Marlins are a terrible dysfunctional organization with a cheap and arrogant owner. The team burned Miami taxpayers on a new stadium deal; had a fire sale of their veteran talent; and even fired Ozzie Guillen early in his contract term (some of that was Ozzie being Ozzie). Stanton is the one and only shining grace for the franchise.

If one uses the qualifying offer amount of $15.3 million as the floor to negotiations for a top player like Stanton, even a short term extension through his arbitration plus one year of FA would cost the Marlins $46 million. It would be a pay increase for the player, but still very undervalued even at average career WAR ($63.6 million). So the team has to pay a premium to keep Stanton for any free agent year. And it seems to top tier number is Kershaw's $25 million per season number.

Stanton could sign a three year extension for $75 million and hit the free agent market at age 28 for an A-Rod shattering next deal. It comes down to reward of a higher pay day against the risk of premature injury prior to free agency.

In 2012, the Marlins had the 7th highest payroll at $118 million. Then the fire sale, and dropped to the bottom at $36 million in 2013 and $46 million in 2014. Even under the short extension play above, the Marlins would be paying Stanton more than 50% of their payroll on one player. Throughout sports leagues, putting so much capital in one player is dangerous and at times, counterproductive (look at the Bulls and injured Derek Rose who eats of 36% of the team's cap space).

But keeping Stanton may be the Marlins only way to save the franchise from total ruin.

I would expect that any long term deal would be stair-stepped in value (putting more on the back end) hoping that the Marlins could catch fire and be playoff competitive (which equates to more gross revenue). A 10 year extension could be (in millions): $15, 20, 25, 25, 30, 30, 35, 35, 40, 40. That makes the deal worth $295 million. Stanton would become a rich free agent at age 35, and depending on his condition, he could get a Victor Martinez final deal of 4 year/$68 million. 

In any event, there will be no charitable tag days ahead for Stanton.

But based upon his statistical value, Stanton has a limited market in trade or in free agency. Very few teams are willing to spend $200 million on one player. Teams would rather keep their top prospects than trade them for expensive veterans. Even the Dodgers and Angels have overspent in the last few seasons, and they now have payroll digestive problems.

A player is worth what the market will bear. Stanton is going to stretch that market to its outer limits.