MLB Trade Rumors starts the Hot Stove League with predictions on Chicago teams signing any of the Top 50 free agents.
MLBTR predicts the Cubs have the
best shot to sign Jon Lester, Russell Martin, David Robertson, Justin
Masterson and Jake Peavy.
For the White Sox, MLBTR predicts Victor Martinez, Colby Rasmus and Luke Gregorson.
This speculative exercise presupposes that the teams will actually have sufficient funds to acquire these free agents.
As for the Cubs, signing five free agents for 2015 season is a pipe dream. Ownership is not going to green light Theo Epstein spending $400 million in new player deals when the Ricketts are attempting to sell part of the team to raise cash for their real estate ventures.
Catcher Martin will decline a qualifying $15.3 million offer from the Pirates, which puts his price tag at $16 million/season in a long term deal. Do the Cubs then keep a more affordable Wellington Castillo, or trade him? Martin does not make a good fit for the Cubs. He probably makes more sense with the White Sox.
Ace starter Lester is the top FA, and he will command Kershaw money ($250 million). If the Cubs actually knew that their top prospects were really going to be quality major leagues (Alcantara, Baez, Soler, Bryant, Russell, Almora), then going "all in" for Lester would make some sense. There is no objective argument to pay a starter that kind of money if the jury is still out on whether the Plan will work (and considering the Cubs have no Plan B).
Relief pitcher Robertson is going to be the highest paid bullpen guy on the market, going to get at least a $50 million deal. The Cubs bullpen was not really the problem. On the other hand, the White Sox could use Robertson and Gregorson.
Masterson makes less sense now, since the Cubs re-signed Yoshi Wada for a one year, $4 million deal. The front office has acquired a group of middle of the road, change of scenery starters (Turner, Droubront) to fill out the spring rotation without signing a FA. Masterson makes more sense as a right handed starter in the middle of the Sox 2015 rotation.
Martinez, at 35, cannot catch very many games. He is a DH/1B candidate who wants a four year deal. He really does not help the Sox that much; finding a DH in the AL can be done in-house (Viecido). Rasmus was a touted prospect who has not met expectations. The Sox already have a solid CF (Eaton). Rasmus hit .225, 18 HR, 40 RBI, 0.9 WAR for the Blue Jays.
