There are good reasons for the Cubs to repeat their championship in 2017. There are also bad reasons why the team will not defend its crown.
FIVE REASONS CUBS CAN REPEAT
1. Kyle Schwarber.
Having Schwarber for a full season is a significant upgrade to the offense. His serious knee injury downgrades the offensive depth at the catching position, and adds to left field negative defensive stats, but Schwarber is the inspirational contact hitter the Cubs lineup really needs to help settle it into a consistent machine.
2. Experience.
The experience factor is huge. The current Cubs now know how to win. They know how to pace themselves through a season. Pitchers are now more savvy on conserving their energy for a long season. Position players know how Maddon likes to move them around on the field and in the line up.
3. Wade Davis.
Davis is no Chapman, but he is a quality closer. Last season, Davis went 2-1, 1.87 ERA, 27 saves and 1.131 WHIP for a 1.8 WAR. He will add the stabilizer to another bullpen in the midst of a retooling. If Davis cannot go, the Cubs have some insurance with Rondon, Strop and Uehara who have closed games in the past.
4. Less Pressure.
The Cubs enter this season with less expectations. Fans are still drifting on Cloud Nine with their first multi-generational championship season. They are not clamoring for a repeat with the drumbeat of a spoiled brat. The players themselves have less pressure on to win a championship. They can continue to relax and play the game instead of grinding out wins. This Cubs team is best when it takes a carefree approach.
5. Javy Baez.
Baez was the most electric player in the World Baseball Championship (WBC) series. He now rates as an international superstar player. He has the skills and the flash to become a national baseball icon. The Cubs will have to get him more playing time because his talent demands it. And the fans want to see him play.
FIVE REASONS CUBS CANNOT REPEAT
1. Injuries.
Some core aspects of the team are young. But the starting pitching staff (Lester, Arrieta and Lackey) have experience but there is always the nagging thought of reliability. The Cubs went through 2016 without a significant long term injury to key players. The odds are against them this year. When Rizzo had back tightness early in spring training, it was dismissed quickly. But if you look at the roster, there are positions like first base and starting rotation that is devoid of quality depth.
2. Rotation.
Maddon has set his rotation: Lester, Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson and Hendricks. Lester deserves the status of being the ace of the staff. Arrieta has been unreal at times. Lackey being the 3rd starter shows the level of concern. He is at the end of the line as a 5th starter. Brian Anderson is the new guy having a terrible spring. But Mike Montgomery has not blown him away to earn the starting spot. In fact, Maddon likes Montgomery as swing man in the bullpen. Hendricks being the 5th starter may be the best one in the National League, but it is a protection move from the career workload of innings pitched last season. This season's rotation does not seem as strong as last year's.
3. Log jams.
The players get along. The clubhouse seems to be a happy place. But this year there will be some tension over the amount of playing time for position players. There will be public debates on how much playing time Baez gets as compared to Zobrist, Schwarber or even a LaStella. Even though Maddon can move players to multiple positions, he will not be able to appease each of them because they believe they have earned a full time starting position. Depth is a great asset but it can be a liability of dissent. If the Cubs have significant injuries, one or more of their young players could be pressured to be traded to shore up the roster. That can create tension between the manager and the front office.
4. Malaise.
The Ricketts family's 2017 focus is not on the Cubs but all its real estate projects around Wrigley Field. The Chicago real estate market is not in rebound mode. For the second consecutive year, Cook County and Chicago led the nation in population flight. The large corporate base that used to spend millions on sky boxes and luxury tickets has been tempered in the metro area. The Cubs raised ticket prices an average of 31 percent in order to capture more revenue from the Cubs while the slow construction of new revenue sources goes on. Epstein has acknowledged that the Cubs did not do much this off-season because he is under a strict budget cap. Ricketts does not want to spend any money on baseball luxury taxes as he had to do last season. As such, Epstein is again cornered with having to find a creative solution to a money squeeze. The last thing he wants to do is to trade away young, cheap and talented players to shore up his pitching staff. But he might have to do it since the organization has no minor league pitching depth.
5. Maddon.
Maddon kept his team loose and on the same page since his tenure as the Cubs skipper. His magic act has led to a championship. He deserves some credit for the team's success. But his juggling act, tee shirt slogans and funny bits can prove to be tiresome to some veteran players who may want more professionalism on the team than a fraternity carnival. If there was a tipping point against Maddon, it was in the Series where many of his moves got immediately questioned by both players and fans. One can pinpoint the players only rain delay meeting that could be the first rail split between manager and his players when they decided to win the series in spite of their manager's moves. Maddon still needs to both motivate and develop his players through another season. He now has to balance bigger egos and real competition for positions. It will be a new minefield to navigate especially when the local press is ready, willing and able to criticize his every move.
