UP THE DOWN GRADE

 Let us look at the Cubs current major league roster depth chart:

LF: Open 

CF: Happ

RF: Heyward

3B: Bryant

SS: Baez

2B: Hoerner

1B: Rizzo

C: Contreras

SP1: Hendricks

SP2: Davies

SP3: Mills

SP4: Open

SP5: Open

Closer: Kimbrel

Bryant, Baez and Rizzo will be free agents after 2021.

Heyward and Kimbrel are untradeable due to their dead money contracts.

Even if you move Bryant to LF and Bote to third, how is this roster going to be any better than 2020?

Losing Lester, Chatwood and Darvish from the rotation is a killer issue. Will you go with inexperienced pitchers like Alzolay, Rea and Marquez to be placeholders?

The roster down grades are apparent in the OF, starting rotation, bullpen and closer.

With Contreras, Bryant and Baez being actively shopped by Jed Hoyer, who knows what dumpster fire will take the field during spring training.

PROBLEMS

The Cubs are at a cross road. It can take the first fork and try to regain its championship form by spending a lot of money in free agency to compete with the Dodgers, Nationals and Yankees. Or it can take the second fork and try to bandage its wounds with the hope that the current core will rebound to their 2016 performance levels.

The Cubs are also at a financial cross road. 2016's success saw massive spikes in the costs of going to a Cub game. The gravy train was open for business. But a slow start and the novelty of not winning haven been worn off, made a destination to Wrigley not a prime ticket in 2017. Even during the playoffs, tickets were being sold under face value. The Ricketts problem continues to be how to maximize revenue for their huge development costs outside of Wrigley. If fans don't have to be part of the "experience" of winning (since they experienced the championship already), then the Cubs have to try to excite the fan base with a "dynasty team."

But Theo has been under a tight financial budget for the last three seasons. It is unlikely that the front office will be given a blank check to solve its baseball operation problems.

Part of the current issues are self-inflicted philosophical errors. The draft strategy has been simple: in the early rounds take the best college hitter available (Bryant, Schwarber, Happ). All three have made it quickly to the majors, with a varying degree of success. At the same time, the front office felt that signing free agent pitchers was the way to build a rotation. Then the final piece was to overdraft pitchers with the statistical hope that a few would pan out. In the Epstein Cub era, he has not developed one major league starting pitcher.

There are no potential solutions in Iowa. The AAA staff has not shown promise.
Starters:
Brooks: 8-10, 6.12 ERA
Perez: 7-10, 5.01 ERA
Freeoff: 2-8, 4.40 ERA
Buchannon: 7-2, 4.46 ERA
Kelly: 7-5, 4.46 ERA
Tseng: 6-1, 1.80 (7.50 ERA in two major league starts)
Zastryzny: 2-3, 5.94 ERA.

Closer:
Carasiti: 21 saves, 1-3, 3.26 ERA, 1.45 WHIP.
 
And this problem led to the Cubs trying to trade for pitching. Pitching is the diamond asset in most organizations. It takes a fortune to give up on young pitchers. This year the Cubs paid the price to get Quintana for the stretch run. Arrieta, Strop, Hendricks, Davis, and Montgomery came through trades. But is really hard to find a AAAA pitcher who just needs "a change of scenery" to blossom into a star.

The minor league system is out of high value assets. In Iowa, only two players had good seasons. Catcher Catatini hit .342, with 10 HR and 61 RBI. He has been on the major league roster and appears to be the 2017 back up to Contreras. Infielder Freeman hit .306, 3 HR, 31 RBI appears to be a defensive utility man at best.

Who are the Cubs most valuable trade assets?

Bryant and Rizzo, but they are going no where. They are the face of the franchise that needs "star power" to hold fan interest.

Russell and Baez are similar players that could anchor the middle infield for years to come. If one had to guess, the front office to keep Baez over Russell.

Contreras has worked his way to untouchable status. He may be the best catcher in the NL. He could become the next Molina.

Schwarber, Almora and Happ are all outfielders with various skill levels. Schwarber is a pure hitter than does not hit the ball as much as everyone thought he would. He is turning into an Adam Dunn/DH. Almora is one of Epstein's guys, a #1 pick, who does not get enough opportunities under Maddon's managing style. Happ is an infielder who is playing the outfield in order to get his bat into the lineup, but in a desperate time to find playoff offense, Maddon sat Happ on the bench.

Zobrist and Heyward are declining players who have no trade clauses. They have to be slated to be expensive bench players in 2018. Which means the Cubs are in a market for a power hitting right fielder.

The Cubs current depth chart shows the holes to fill:

ROTATION: Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN.
BULLPEN:
Closer: UNKNOWN
Set up Man: UNKNOWN
Relievers: Strop, Montgomery, Wilson, Edwards, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN.

POSITION STARTERS:
OUTFIELD: Schwarber, Almora, UNKNOWN
Reserve OF: Heyward, Happ

Infield: Bryant, Russell, Baez, Rizzo
Catcher: Contreras
Reserves: Caratini, LaStella 

FIVE REASONS

There are good reasons for the Cubs to repeat their championship in 2017. There are also bad reasons why the team will not defend its crown.

FIVE REASONS CUBS CAN REPEAT

1. Kyle Schwarber.

Having Schwarber for a full season is a significant upgrade to the offense. His serious knee injury downgrades the offensive depth at the catching position, and adds to left field negative defensive stats, but Schwarber is the inspirational contact hitter the Cubs lineup really needs to help settle it into a consistent machine.

2. Experience.

The experience factor is huge. The current Cubs now know how to win. They know how to pace themselves through a season. Pitchers are now more savvy on conserving their energy for a long season. Position players know how Maddon likes to move them around on the field and in the line up.

3.  Wade Davis.

Davis is no Chapman, but he is a quality closer. Last season, Davis went 2-1, 1.87 ERA, 27 saves and 1.131 WHIP for a 1.8 WAR.  He will add the stabilizer to another bullpen in the midst of a retooling. If Davis cannot go, the Cubs have some insurance with Rondon, Strop and Uehara who have closed games in the past.

4. Less Pressure.

The Cubs enter this season with less expectations. Fans are still drifting on Cloud Nine with their first multi-generational championship season. They are not clamoring for a repeat with the drumbeat of a spoiled brat. The players themselves have less pressure on to win a championship. They can continue to relax and play the game instead of grinding out wins. This Cubs team is best when it takes a carefree approach.

5. Javy Baez.

Baez was the most electric player in the World Baseball Championship (WBC) series. He now rates as an international superstar player. He has the skills and the flash to become a national baseball icon. The Cubs will have to get him more playing time because his talent demands it. And the fans want to see him play.

FIVE REASONS CUBS CANNOT REPEAT

1. Injuries.

Some core aspects of the team are young. But the starting pitching staff (Lester, Arrieta and Lackey) have experience but there is always the nagging thought of reliability. The Cubs went through 2016 without a significant long term injury to key players. The odds are against them this year. When Rizzo had back tightness early in spring training, it was dismissed quickly. But if you look at the roster, there are positions like first base and starting rotation that is devoid of quality depth.

2. Rotation.

Maddon has set his rotation: Lester, Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson and Hendricks.  Lester deserves the status of being the ace of the staff. Arrieta has been unreal at times. Lackey being the 3rd starter shows the level of concern. He is at the end of the line as a 5th starter. Brian Anderson is the new guy having a terrible spring. But Mike Montgomery has not blown him away to earn the starting spot. In fact, Maddon likes Montgomery as swing man in the bullpen. Hendricks being the 5th starter may be the best one in the National League, but it is a protection move from the career workload of innings pitched last season. This season's rotation does not seem as strong as last year's.

3. Log jams.

The players get along. The clubhouse seems to be a happy place. But this year there will be some tension over the amount of playing time for position players. There will be public debates on how much playing time Baez gets as compared to Zobrist, Schwarber or even a LaStella. Even though Maddon can move players to multiple positions, he will not be able to appease each of them because they believe they have earned a full time starting position. Depth is a great asset but it can be a liability of dissent. If the Cubs have significant injuries, one or more of their young players could be pressured to be traded to shore up the roster. That can create tension between the manager and the front office.

4. Malaise.

The Ricketts family's 2017 focus is not on the Cubs but all its real estate projects around Wrigley Field. The Chicago real estate market is not in rebound mode. For the second consecutive year, Cook County and Chicago led the nation in population flight. The large corporate base that used to spend millions on sky boxes and luxury tickets has been tempered in the metro area. The Cubs raised ticket prices an average of 31 percent in order to capture more revenue from the Cubs while the slow construction of new revenue sources goes on. Epstein has acknowledged that the Cubs did not do much this off-season because he is under a strict budget cap. Ricketts does not want to spend any money on baseball luxury taxes as he had to do last season. As such, Epstein is again cornered with having to find a creative solution to a money squeeze. The last thing he wants to do is to trade away young, cheap and talented players to shore up his pitching staff. But he might have to do it since the organization has no minor league pitching depth.

5. Maddon.

Maddon kept his team loose and on the same page since his tenure as the Cubs skipper. His magic act has led to a championship. He deserves some credit for the team's success. But his juggling act, tee shirt slogans and funny bits can prove to be tiresome to some veteran players who may want more professionalism on the team than a fraternity carnival. If there was a tipping point against Maddon, it was in the Series where many of his moves got immediately questioned by both players and fans. One can pinpoint the players only rain delay meeting that could be the first rail split between manager and his players when they decided to win the series in spite of their manager's moves. Maddon still needs to both motivate and develop his players through another season. He now has to balance bigger egos and real competition for positions. It will be a new minefield to navigate especially when the local press is ready, willing and able to criticize his every move.

FLYERS

The Cubs continue to take flyers on injured pitchers.

First, Joe Nathan was signed to a contract even though he was not close from returning from TJ surgery. He is not even close to starting rehab assignment.

Second, the Cubs traded for Aaron Brooks who was on the DL at the time. Brooks now makes his way to Iowa after spending the first half of the season on the disabled list. Brooks played for Nashville, Oakland, Omaha and Kansas City last season after a mid-season trade. He went 3-4 with a 6.67 ERA in 13 big league games and was 7-5 with a 3.72 ERA in 20 Triple-A appearances.

Now, the Cubs claimed A. J. Alvarez off waivers from Oakland. Alvarez is coming off March elbow surgery. Prior to that, he had a 9.00 ERA. He was activated by the Iowa Cubs to work in the bullpen.

The Iowa Cubs already had seven pitchers on the DL/restricted list. In addition, the Cubs have Zac Rosscup and Dallas Beeler on the 40 man 60-day DL.

Epstein-Hoyer have a habit of signing injured players in hope that they can fight lightning in a bottle, gold at the end of the rainbow, or high reward from a low risk move. But it does show how week the organization's pitching is throughout the minors. Five out the first six draft choices this year were right handed college pitchers - - - presumably more ready to contribute in the high minors or major leagues.

The Cubs bullpen, especially Richard and Grimm, is the weakest link on the roster. Rumors continue to spread that the Cubs have talked to the Yankees about one of their three power bullpen arms. We shall see.

In addition, the Cubs used 71 percent of their  2016 draft choices (27/38) on pitchers.  Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago reports that the Cubs used 80 draft picks on pitchers between 2012 and 2015 and not one has thrown a single pitch for the major-league club yet.

The league average is about 50 percent of draft choices are pitchers. In the Epstein era to date, the Cubs have selected 53.5 percent pitchers in the draft.

The Cubs selected  Oklahoma State University right-hander Thomas Hatch with their first pick in the Third Round. Hatch missed the entire 2015 season with an elbow injury, but he’s come back from that sprained ulnar collateral ligament to perform as a redshirt sophomore (7-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 102 strikeouts against 28 walks through 112-plus innings). He’s listed at 6-foot-1, 190 pounds for a Cowboys team trying to advance to the College World Series this weekend.  

“It’s something that certainly we have to be aware of,” said senior vice president Jason McLeod, who oversees the scouting and player development departments. “We know that it’s in his past, but we’re confident in making the selection that he’s going to be healthy going forward.

“We always know when you draft a player who’s had a medical occurrence in his past it’s always a risk. But (it’s) weighing all the factors, getting to know the player himself, the competitor that he is.
“I just saw him a couple weeks ago at the Big 12 tournament. The stuff coming out of his hand, how he’s commanding everything, and more so just how this guy competed every week and how he performed every week, we felt very good to get him there.”

The Cubs also went with right-handed college pitchers in rounds four through six: California Baptist’s Tyson Miller; Duke’s Bailey Clark; and Cal State Fullerton’s Chad Hockin (a grandson of Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew). As well as rounds eight through 10: Haverford’s Stephen Ridings; Dartmouth’s Duncan Robinson; and Michigan State’s Dakota Mekkes.

PREPARE DEPTH CHARGES

As spring training looms, the Cubs official website has a graphic on the team's current "depth chart."

It is probably the closest we can get to the mindset of the management.

The starting rotation:

Lester, Arrieta, Hammel, Hendrick, T. Wood.  (Wada, Turner, Doubront)

I would think Hammel would be #2, and the #5 slot a competition between Wood, E. Jackson, Turner and Doubront.

Outfield starters:

Coghlan, Fowler, Soler

No surprise here. The trade for Fowler puts Alcantara in utility role.

Infield starters:

Olt, Castro, Baez, Rizzo, Montero

With Valbuena traded for Montero, the third base caretaker position goes to Olt, who has just been plain terrible since becoming a Cub. If Bryant wants to play third, the position is wide open for him.

Bench players:

Alcantara, La Stella (infielders)
Szczur, Sweeney, Denorfia, Lake (outfielders)
Castillo, Ross, Lopez (catchers)

Bullpen:
Rondon (closer), Motte, Strop, Ramirez, Parker, Grimm, Rosscup, Schlitter, E. Jackson, German

UPDATE: The Cubs claimed left-handed relief pitcher Drake Britton from the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday. To make room on the roster, Chicago designated right-handed pitcher Gonzalez Germen for assignment.

With 13 known starting players (8 field + 5 starters), the team only has 12 positions left on the 25 man opening day roster.

Maddon's style has been comparable to NL skippers, so it is likely he would want another position player over a bullpen specialist in order to pinch hit, double move or platoon.

The Cubs will only carry one more catcher, Ross for Lester, so Castillo continues to the be odd man out.  Olt is the weak link in the infield, so Alcantara and La Stella have to make the club (with the prospect that Baez may have to learn another position, third, if Olt fails). The only outfielder who is going to be on the bench is Denorfia. Lake, Sweeney and Szczur have weak journeymen skills at this point in their careers. Alcantara will be the 5th outfielder-super sub like Bonifacio did last season.

With four bench bats, that leaves a maximum  8 bullpen slots. An extra starter, such as Wada or Doubront could make the club, leaving seven pure relievers on the roster.

The bullpen depth has Parker over Grimm which is odd, unless Grimm goes back to AAA to reconvert to being a starter. The fall of E. Jackson appears complete if he is the 9th bullpen option, a role which I don't believe he will take. The Cubs have dead money on his deal so it is possible he will be cut.

The bullpen chart only has one unproven lefty, Rosscup. It is possible that Ortiz or Wada will become the lefty reliever.

As one can judge, the Cubs still really have little depth throughout the 25 man roster. It is still dominated by utility journeymen hitters.

ADDING PIECES

The White Sox continue to shore up the roster by adding veteran depth.

Multiple reports state that utility infielder Emilio Bonifacio has signed with the South Siders. He will earn $3 million in 2015, and the option is valued at $4 million with a $1 million buyout.

Bonifacio will give the White Sox another option at second base following the trade of Marcus Semien to Oakland in the Samardzija deal.  Prospects Micah Johnson and Carlos Sanchez are the front runners to take the second base job, but the  29-year-old Bonifacio could conceivably earn the positio if the Sox want to continue their development in the minors.

If Johnson or Sanchez is the preferred choice out of Spring Training, the Sox will have a highly versatile utility player on their hands in Bonifacio at a reasonable price for someone that can handle a wide array of positions. The switch-hitting Bonifacio played second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield positions between the Cubs and Braves last season, batting .259/.305/.345 with 26 steals in 426 plate appearances along the way.

It seems to be a reasonable pick-up for the White Sox, since he can fill in at multiple positions, and can lead off with some reasonable stolen base speed as he did with the Cubs in early 2014.

DEPTH CHARTING

Realistically, one needs to view both the current, short term and long term depth chart of a team to objectively judge the health of the organization. A short term replacement would be someone called up to fill in for a starter due to injury, but for no longer than a season. Long term replacement is the projected player who will take over that position and keep it for several seasons (until free agency).

FIRST BASE:
Current Player: Rizzo, for whom the front office has invested the long term on his success.
Short Term replacement: None.
Long Term replacement: Vogelbach, a power hitting prospect who may move to the outfield.

SECOND BASE:
Current Player: Barney, who struggled at the plate last season.
Short Term Replacement: Watkins, who did not get an opportunity under Sveum.
Long Term replacement: Alcantara, a low level prospect that is starting to make reputation as a hitter.

SHORTSTOP:
Current Player: Castro, like Rizzo, is part of the front office's "core" roster players long term
Short Term Replacement: Baez, for whom the front office believes is still a shortstop and not a second or third baseman. Baez could force a move at this position within the next year.
Long Term replacement: Baez.

THIRD BASE:
Current Player: A probable replacement level platoon of Valbuena and Murphy.
Short Term Replacement: Rangers cast-offs Olt and Villanueva.
Long Term replacement: Bryant, who is one of the "core" players for the future.

CATCHER:
Current Player: Castillo, who will be given the opportunity to solidify the position.
Short Term replacement: Kottaras is nothing more than a marginal back-up if Castillo gets hurt.
Long Term replacement: None in the system.

LEFT FIELD:
Current player: Lake, who will get a full season opportunity to be a full time player.
Short Term replacement: Sweeney, who appears to be the 4th outfielder
Long Term replacement: Unknown, since it is possible that prospect infielders may be converted to outfield spots.

CENTER FIELD:
Current player: Ruggiano, for whom the front office just traded for this off-season.
Short Term replacement: Sweeney.
Long Term replacement: Almora, if he rises to his potential and gets around injury concerns.

RIGHT FIELD:
Current player: Schierholtz, who is the last year of his deal.
Short Term Replacement: AAA journeymen like Cunningham or Wells.
Long Term replacement: Soler, whose stock is slowly fading in prospect rankings, due partially to injury and attitude.

If one looks at positional depth, the Cubs only have one player, Sweeney, who equals the current starter as a short term replacement. The rest of the positions have no real short term depth, and the long term replacement players are mostly in the low minors (with the exception of Baez who will start at AAA Iowa in 2014).  None of the short term replacement players seem to have the ability to win or displace the current player, which is disheartening because objectively, the Cubs could use an upgrade all these positions (based on 2013 performance levels).

DEPTH CHARGES

The Cubs own web site reveals the current team depth chart:

LEFT FIELD
J. Lake

CENTER FIELD
J. Ruggiano
J. Lake
R. Sweeney

RIGHT FIELD
N. Schierholtz

SHORTSTOP
S. Castro
D. Barney
D. Murphy

2ND BASE
D. Barney
L. Watkins

1ST BASE
A. Rizzo

3RD BASE
D. Murphy
L. Valbuena

CATCHER
W. Castillo
G. Kottaras


ROTATION
1. T. Wood
2. E. Jackson
3. J. Samardzija
4. C. Rusin
5. J. Arrieta

BULLPEN
J. Veras (CL)
J. Russell
K. Fujikawa
A. Vizcaino
B. Parker
P. Strop
H. Rondon
C. Villanueva
A. Cabrera
J. Grimm
B. Raley
Z. Rosscup


The outfield seems pretty well set with Lake, Ruggs, and Schierholtz as starters with Sweeney as the back up. The Cubs failed to "upgrade" any of those positions, even though Lake still may have some upside potential.


The infield seems set as well, with Murphy/Valbuena platoon at third, Castro at short, Barney at second and Rizzo at first. Again, the Cubs failed to upgrade any of those positions.

At catcher, Castillo is the starter (barring injury) and Kottaras is the new back-up, which is a downgrade from Navarro.

The depth chart for the rotation is probably out of order, with Samardzija the default #1, Wood #2 and Jackson #3. Rusin gets a promotion to the #4 starter and Arrieta gets a chance at the 5th spot. Overall, the rotation seems slightly weaker than last season (Feldman was a consistent starter). Villaneuva could be a dark horse candidate to take the 5th starter role.

The bullpen has several names who will not make the 25 man roster, such as Vizcaino (injury rehab), Cabrera, Raley and Grimm (AAA). Veras takes over fro Gregg as closer, which may be a slight upgrade. Strop will be the set up man, again a slight upgrade. Fujikawa could be an improvement for the 7th if he is healthy since he was originally signed to be the closer. Parker was adequate in middle relief. Russell may have been overused and burned out. Overall, the bullpen could be a tad better but not much.

The Cubs have not done much to improve their major league roster during this off-season.