Baseball is very popular in South Korea. Many KBO stars have made it to the U.S. major leagues. The nation takes pride in its national team when it plays in international contests.
South Korea is a nation of only 51 million. It does field one league with ten sponsored teams (major corporations). The teams play 144 games in the regular season.
But the championship playoffs are interesting alternative to the American version of the post-season.
Five teams make the playoffs in Korea.
The 4th and 5th place teams are the Wild Cards. They play a one game winner-take-all contest. The winner of this Wild Card games goes on to play a best of five series against the 3rd place club the Semi-Playoff.
The winner of the Semi-Playoff plays the 2nd place team in a best of five Playoff series.
Then the winner of the Semi-Playoff series plays the 1st place team for the championship. The championship series is best of seven.
What is clear about the KBO playoff format is that it rewards regular season play. The regular season winner has an automatic berth in the championship series. It also makes teams that finish lower than the league winner to "earn" their way to the championship round.
One negative to this format is that the league regular season winner has to wait until their opponent goes through a playoff gauntlet. This year's Wild Card game was held on October 16. The first championship game (against the 1st and 2nd place clubs) began on November 4.
MLB continues to talk about future expansion or re-alignment. That also means potential more playoff games, which in the current format dilutes regular season accomplishments of the best teams.
Showing posts with label championship. Show all posts
Showing posts with label championship. Show all posts
November 9, 2018
April 18, 2017
THE CURSE REVIVED
The Cubs continued to bask in the glow of the championship.
But that light is turning dark.
The Cubs have lost 4 home games in a row for the first time in three years.
The championship hangover continues.
And then there is the weirdness about their diamond rings.
When shown after the ceremony, it was learned that on the inside there was an image of a goat.
Why is there a goat on a Cubs ring?
When Ricketts purchased the club, they were adamant that they did not believe in any curses. When Epstein arrived in town to run the team, he said he did not believe in curses - - - and he came from Boston, the home of the Bambino Curse. He said building a quality organization leads to championships. And he backed up his words with an aggressive and painful rebuilding program.
So by putting a goat on the championship ring, the Ricketts have directly acknowledged the mythical curse. There was no logical reason to do so. And some fans, seeing the Cubs are in a slow, bad baseball start, will believe that putting the goat on the championship ring has revived the curse.
But as gracious and generous the Ricketts family was at the ring ceremony, the Sun Times reported that there is an another strange twist in the Cubs championship. The paper reported:
The Cubs organization is handing out World Series Championship rings to players and other employees, describing the bling as a “priceless memento of the greatest championship quest in all of sports.”
In fact, each ring does have a price — $1, to be precise — even though appraisers say they could fetch anywhere from $50,000 to $250,000 on the open market.
That’s because the rings come with strings attached. The Cubs are discouraging ring recipients from selling the hardware. But if they get the urge, the Cubs reserve the right to buy each ring back for $1, according to a memo the organization is asking each ring recipient — including players — to sign.
“We regret the formal nature of this memo, and we do not intend for this information to overshadow our joy in being able to provide this ring to you,” the memo states. “However, we think it is important to communicate this information to you.”
Those planning to sell “or otherwise transfer your ring,” must give the Cubs written notice of “the proposed transaction and a complete accounting of the terms. If the Cubs elect not to purchase the ring, then you may transfer it according to the terms you provided to the Cubs; however, each subsequent owner shall also be bound by these terms in the event of a subsequent proposed sale or other transfer.”
The memo makes an exception for rings that are given as gifts — say to a child, spouse or grandchild. Cubs spokesman Julian Green stated that it was not unusual for this stipulation.
However, Sun Times contacted the White Sox about their 2005 championship rings, The Sox said the rings given to players and staff had no conditions attached to them. The Sox said that the rings were gifts to the players who could do whatever they wanted with them.
And sports writers have never heard of this stipulation in past champions.
It seems like a petty power grab by the Ricketts to assert control over their players and their assets. The players "earned" those rings by performing at the highest level. The players success has directly increased the Ricketts' value of the club by approximately two billion dollars. So why are the owners trying to seize back the $70,000 ring if a player needs to convert it to cash?
It is the same reason why Crain's reported earlier in the year that the Ricketts push to control the surrounding Wrigley Field blocks is pushing old neighborhood merchants farther and farther away from the facility. By pushing away the competition, the Cubs are casting a monopoly upon fans coming to games with pre-game merchandise sales at their huge new store and beer or food stands outside the park. It comes down to the Ricketts continuing philosophy (that blew a part the rooftop settlement) that only the family has the right to make any money off the Cubs. And this includes the players and their championship rings.
We all know stories of players after their careers are over who become down on their luck. Many players do not save their wealth, or find themselves making poor investment decisions because their focus was on their career and not business. Many athletes get into bitter, expensive divorces where cash is the only way out. So the Ricketts have effectively "cursed" their future former championship players with a "generous gift" that is only worth $1 outside the family. Experts believe that a championship ring of Bryant, Rizzo or Lester could command $250,000 or more on the open, auction market. But instead, the Ricketts want fans to pay them $10,000 for a cheaper replica of the ring.
The whole ring dynamic tarnishes the Cubs championship.
But that light is turning dark.
The Cubs have lost 4 home games in a row for the first time in three years.
The championship hangover continues.
And then there is the weirdness about their diamond rings.
When shown after the ceremony, it was learned that on the inside there was an image of a goat.
Why is there a goat on a Cubs ring?
When Ricketts purchased the club, they were adamant that they did not believe in any curses. When Epstein arrived in town to run the team, he said he did not believe in curses - - - and he came from Boston, the home of the Bambino Curse. He said building a quality organization leads to championships. And he backed up his words with an aggressive and painful rebuilding program.
So by putting a goat on the championship ring, the Ricketts have directly acknowledged the mythical curse. There was no logical reason to do so. And some fans, seeing the Cubs are in a slow, bad baseball start, will believe that putting the goat on the championship ring has revived the curse.
But as gracious and generous the Ricketts family was at the ring ceremony, the Sun Times reported that there is an another strange twist in the Cubs championship. The paper reported:
The Cubs organization is handing out World Series Championship rings to players and other employees, describing the bling as a “priceless memento of the greatest championship quest in all of sports.”
In fact, each ring does have a price — $1, to be precise — even though appraisers say they could fetch anywhere from $50,000 to $250,000 on the open market.
That’s because the rings come with strings attached. The Cubs are discouraging ring recipients from selling the hardware. But if they get the urge, the Cubs reserve the right to buy each ring back for $1, according to a memo the organization is asking each ring recipient — including players — to sign.
“We regret the formal nature of this memo, and we do not intend for this information to overshadow our joy in being able to provide this ring to you,” the memo states. “However, we think it is important to communicate this information to you.”
Those planning to sell “or otherwise transfer your ring,” must give the Cubs written notice of “the proposed transaction and a complete accounting of the terms. If the Cubs elect not to purchase the ring, then you may transfer it according to the terms you provided to the Cubs; however, each subsequent owner shall also be bound by these terms in the event of a subsequent proposed sale or other transfer.”
The memo makes an exception for rings that are given as gifts — say to a child, spouse or grandchild. Cubs spokesman Julian Green stated that it was not unusual for this stipulation.
However, Sun Times contacted the White Sox about their 2005 championship rings, The Sox said the rings given to players and staff had no conditions attached to them. The Sox said that the rings were gifts to the players who could do whatever they wanted with them.
And sports writers have never heard of this stipulation in past champions.
It seems like a petty power grab by the Ricketts to assert control over their players and their assets. The players "earned" those rings by performing at the highest level. The players success has directly increased the Ricketts' value of the club by approximately two billion dollars. So why are the owners trying to seize back the $70,000 ring if a player needs to convert it to cash?
It is the same reason why Crain's reported earlier in the year that the Ricketts push to control the surrounding Wrigley Field blocks is pushing old neighborhood merchants farther and farther away from the facility. By pushing away the competition, the Cubs are casting a monopoly upon fans coming to games with pre-game merchandise sales at their huge new store and beer or food stands outside the park. It comes down to the Ricketts continuing philosophy (that blew a part the rooftop settlement) that only the family has the right to make any money off the Cubs. And this includes the players and their championship rings.
We all know stories of players after their careers are over who become down on their luck. Many players do not save their wealth, or find themselves making poor investment decisions because their focus was on their career and not business. Many athletes get into bitter, expensive divorces where cash is the only way out. So the Ricketts have effectively "cursed" their future former championship players with a "generous gift" that is only worth $1 outside the family. Experts believe that a championship ring of Bryant, Rizzo or Lester could command $250,000 or more on the open, auction market. But instead, the Ricketts want fans to pay them $10,000 for a cheaper replica of the ring.
The whole ring dynamic tarnishes the Cubs championship.
April 17, 2017
THE HANGOVER
Last season, it took the Cubs 31 games to lose their 6th game of the season.
In 2017, it took 12 games.
A 19 game swing even early in the season is a huge red flag.
There is probably a huge championship hangover, with all the celebrations and
spring press expectations for a repeat.
The players off-seasons were probably quite different than seasons past in having to deal with the celebrity interaction with fans about the championship.
The Cubs were only swept once last season. The Pirates took that honor over the weekend when the Cubs re-tooled bullpen blew up.
Most people believe the Cubs will be fine. The Reds are not sustainable in first place in the NL Central. The Cardinals are in panic mode after dropping to dead last without a pulse. The early season is not a prediction of October. But, every game counts the same in the end. The Cubs are only on pace to win 81 games, which would be a huge nuclear meltdown if it would occur.
There was no drama, no real competition in spring training. It was a quiet, professional work out. The pundits believed that it would take 5 appearances before the pitchers would get into their groove.
The concern about new closer Davis was wrong. He is off to a good start; 1-0, 6 G, 2 SV, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP.
It is the middle of the bullpen that has been surprisingly bad.
Grimm: 6 G, 9.53 ERA, 1.59 WHIP
Strop: 6 G, 0-1, 9.00 ERA , 2.00 WHIP
Uehara: 7 G, 3.18 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
Montgomery, 0-2, 4 G, 3.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
The WHIP numbers indicate control issues which have led to half of the team's current losses.
It looks like the back end of the pen is set with Davis at closer, and Edwards and Rondon as 8th inning set up men. But since Maddon does not want to overtax his starters early in the season, long relievers like Montgomery and Grimm have to step it up. The bridge to the back end of the pen is broken.
What will cure a weak middle bullpen? An explosive offense.
The Cubs team batting average of .240 ranks 7th of 15 in the NL.
The Cubs 47 runs scored is 11th in the NL.
The Cubs 9 HR is last in the NL.
The Cubs OBP of .366 is 3rd in the NL.
The Cubs can get on base, but cannot get timely hitting to score adequate runs.
The tipping point will be May 1. That is when you will really know if your team is a contender or a pretender.
In 2017, it took 12 games.
A 19 game swing even early in the season is a huge red flag.
There is probably a huge championship hangover, with all the celebrations and
spring press expectations for a repeat.
The players off-seasons were probably quite different than seasons past in having to deal with the celebrity interaction with fans about the championship.
The Cubs were only swept once last season. The Pirates took that honor over the weekend when the Cubs re-tooled bullpen blew up.
Most people believe the Cubs will be fine. The Reds are not sustainable in first place in the NL Central. The Cardinals are in panic mode after dropping to dead last without a pulse. The early season is not a prediction of October. But, every game counts the same in the end. The Cubs are only on pace to win 81 games, which would be a huge nuclear meltdown if it would occur.
There was no drama, no real competition in spring training. It was a quiet, professional work out. The pundits believed that it would take 5 appearances before the pitchers would get into their groove.
The concern about new closer Davis was wrong. He is off to a good start; 1-0, 6 G, 2 SV, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP.
It is the middle of the bullpen that has been surprisingly bad.
Grimm: 6 G, 9.53 ERA, 1.59 WHIP
Strop: 6 G, 0-1, 9.00 ERA , 2.00 WHIP
Uehara: 7 G, 3.18 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
Montgomery, 0-2, 4 G, 3.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
The WHIP numbers indicate control issues which have led to half of the team's current losses.
It looks like the back end of the pen is set with Davis at closer, and Edwards and Rondon as 8th inning set up men. But since Maddon does not want to overtax his starters early in the season, long relievers like Montgomery and Grimm have to step it up. The bridge to the back end of the pen is broken.
What will cure a weak middle bullpen? An explosive offense.
The Cubs team batting average of .240 ranks 7th of 15 in the NL.
The Cubs 47 runs scored is 11th in the NL.
The Cubs 9 HR is last in the NL.
The Cubs OBP of .366 is 3rd in the NL.
The Cubs can get on base, but cannot get timely hitting to score adequate runs.
The tipping point will be May 1. That is when you will really know if your team is a contender or a pretender.
April 11, 2017
BANNER NIGHT
Waiting two hours watching ESPN filler was like 108 years of torture.
Instead of a 6:15 p.m. championship ceremony, it was put off by the Cubs until 8:15 p.m. The team could have done all the opening junk before the rains hit around 7 p.m. but the PR people did not want to repeat the White Sox home opener stinker where the players were introduced and the game was not played.
The banner raising ceremony lasted too long. The temperature dropped 30 degrees from the time the pregame show started until the first pitch was thrown. But for the Cub players, the 45 minutes used to wander around the field and into the center field stands to timidly raise the WS banner was circus animal parade overkill. It looked like they were on an elementary school field trip to a textile mill. And only a few of them got to pull on the cord to actually raise the banner.
Then the cameras followed them through the underbelly of the bleachers, and past the new metal dungeons called the bullpens, and back into the light of the field. This time, Anthony Rizzo emerged holding the championship trophy. From the march to home plate, the players followed his lead, then dispersed when he handed the trophy to Tom Ricketts. Many people may have lost the symbolism of that moment: the players who won the championship were giving it to ownership who will keep it for themselves.
In the constant re-construction of Wrigley Field, the team installed four new flagpoles in center field. In the past, banners flew on the foul pole standards or on top of the upper deck roof. But now there are new flag poles for the banners. The one oddity is that the fourth pole now has the 2016 NL pennant on it (which someone diminishes the other NL championships). I thought that they would raise the banner on the old center field scoreboard flag pole since this scoreboard is now merely an unused shadow of its former glory. Who needs pennants to tell the standings? Use it to fill the banners on those flag poles. But the team wanted BIG banners and more space to fly in last night's stiff winds.
ESPN announcers stressed for hours that this was the celebration of a championship season for players and fans. True. But it also marks the end of last season's wonderful run, and the beginning of the 2017 title defense. And it also marks the end of innocent traditions of baseball history as the Cathedral of Baseball is now another modern park with all the trappings of commercialism.
The start of another rash of merchandising sales, such as the special gold lettering Cubs home jerseys, were already on sale before the game. The championship banners will be for sale, too. And as Crain's pointed out before the game, the new "Park" construction outside Wrigley is forcing old merchants blocks away from Wrigley Field as the Cubs continue to monopolize the block around the field with its own proprietary and expensive merch centers.
Instead of a 6:15 p.m. championship ceremony, it was put off by the Cubs until 8:15 p.m. The team could have done all the opening junk before the rains hit around 7 p.m. but the PR people did not want to repeat the White Sox home opener stinker where the players were introduced and the game was not played.
The banner raising ceremony lasted too long. The temperature dropped 30 degrees from the time the pregame show started until the first pitch was thrown. But for the Cub players, the 45 minutes used to wander around the field and into the center field stands to timidly raise the WS banner was circus animal parade overkill. It looked like they were on an elementary school field trip to a textile mill. And only a few of them got to pull on the cord to actually raise the banner.
Then the cameras followed them through the underbelly of the bleachers, and past the new metal dungeons called the bullpens, and back into the light of the field. This time, Anthony Rizzo emerged holding the championship trophy. From the march to home plate, the players followed his lead, then dispersed when he handed the trophy to Tom Ricketts. Many people may have lost the symbolism of that moment: the players who won the championship were giving it to ownership who will keep it for themselves.
In the constant re-construction of Wrigley Field, the team installed four new flagpoles in center field. In the past, banners flew on the foul pole standards or on top of the upper deck roof. But now there are new flag poles for the banners. The one oddity is that the fourth pole now has the 2016 NL pennant on it (which someone diminishes the other NL championships). I thought that they would raise the banner on the old center field scoreboard flag pole since this scoreboard is now merely an unused shadow of its former glory. Who needs pennants to tell the standings? Use it to fill the banners on those flag poles. But the team wanted BIG banners and more space to fly in last night's stiff winds.
ESPN announcers stressed for hours that this was the celebration of a championship season for players and fans. True. But it also marks the end of last season's wonderful run, and the beginning of the 2017 title defense. And it also marks the end of innocent traditions of baseball history as the Cathedral of Baseball is now another modern park with all the trappings of commercialism.
The start of another rash of merchandising sales, such as the special gold lettering Cubs home jerseys, were already on sale before the game. The championship banners will be for sale, too. And as Crain's pointed out before the game, the new "Park" construction outside Wrigley is forcing old merchants blocks away from Wrigley Field as the Cubs continue to monopolize the block around the field with its own proprietary and expensive merch centers.
March 25, 2017
FIVE REASONS
There are good reasons for the Cubs to repeat their championship in 2017. There are also bad reasons why the team will not defend its crown.
FIVE REASONS CUBS CAN REPEAT
1. Kyle Schwarber.
Having Schwarber for a full season is a significant upgrade to the offense. His serious knee injury downgrades the offensive depth at the catching position, and adds to left field negative defensive stats, but Schwarber is the inspirational contact hitter the Cubs lineup really needs to help settle it into a consistent machine.
2. Experience.
The experience factor is huge. The current Cubs now know how to win. They know how to pace themselves through a season. Pitchers are now more savvy on conserving their energy for a long season. Position players know how Maddon likes to move them around on the field and in the line up.
3. Wade Davis.
Davis is no Chapman, but he is a quality closer. Last season, Davis went 2-1, 1.87 ERA, 27 saves and 1.131 WHIP for a 1.8 WAR. He will add the stabilizer to another bullpen in the midst of a retooling. If Davis cannot go, the Cubs have some insurance with Rondon, Strop and Uehara who have closed games in the past.
4. Less Pressure.
The Cubs enter this season with less expectations. Fans are still drifting on Cloud Nine with their first multi-generational championship season. They are not clamoring for a repeat with the drumbeat of a spoiled brat. The players themselves have less pressure on to win a championship. They can continue to relax and play the game instead of grinding out wins. This Cubs team is best when it takes a carefree approach.
5. Javy Baez.
Baez was the most electric player in the World Baseball Championship (WBC) series. He now rates as an international superstar player. He has the skills and the flash to become a national baseball icon. The Cubs will have to get him more playing time because his talent demands it. And the fans want to see him play.
FIVE REASONS CUBS CANNOT REPEAT
1. Injuries.
Some core aspects of the team are young. But the starting pitching staff (Lester, Arrieta and Lackey) have experience but there is always the nagging thought of reliability. The Cubs went through 2016 without a significant long term injury to key players. The odds are against them this year. When Rizzo had back tightness early in spring training, it was dismissed quickly. But if you look at the roster, there are positions like first base and starting rotation that is devoid of quality depth.
2. Rotation.
Maddon has set his rotation: Lester, Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson and Hendricks. Lester deserves the status of being the ace of the staff. Arrieta has been unreal at times. Lackey being the 3rd starter shows the level of concern. He is at the end of the line as a 5th starter. Brian Anderson is the new guy having a terrible spring. But Mike Montgomery has not blown him away to earn the starting spot. In fact, Maddon likes Montgomery as swing man in the bullpen. Hendricks being the 5th starter may be the best one in the National League, but it is a protection move from the career workload of innings pitched last season. This season's rotation does not seem as strong as last year's.
3. Log jams.
The players get along. The clubhouse seems to be a happy place. But this year there will be some tension over the amount of playing time for position players. There will be public debates on how much playing time Baez gets as compared to Zobrist, Schwarber or even a LaStella. Even though Maddon can move players to multiple positions, he will not be able to appease each of them because they believe they have earned a full time starting position. Depth is a great asset but it can be a liability of dissent. If the Cubs have significant injuries, one or more of their young players could be pressured to be traded to shore up the roster. That can create tension between the manager and the front office.
4. Malaise.
The Ricketts family's 2017 focus is not on the Cubs but all its real estate projects around Wrigley Field. The Chicago real estate market is not in rebound mode. For the second consecutive year, Cook County and Chicago led the nation in population flight. The large corporate base that used to spend millions on sky boxes and luxury tickets has been tempered in the metro area. The Cubs raised ticket prices an average of 31 percent in order to capture more revenue from the Cubs while the slow construction of new revenue sources goes on. Epstein has acknowledged that the Cubs did not do much this off-season because he is under a strict budget cap. Ricketts does not want to spend any money on baseball luxury taxes as he had to do last season. As such, Epstein is again cornered with having to find a creative solution to a money squeeze. The last thing he wants to do is to trade away young, cheap and talented players to shore up his pitching staff. But he might have to do it since the organization has no minor league pitching depth.
5. Maddon.
Maddon kept his team loose and on the same page since his tenure as the Cubs skipper. His magic act has led to a championship. He deserves some credit for the team's success. But his juggling act, tee shirt slogans and funny bits can prove to be tiresome to some veteran players who may want more professionalism on the team than a fraternity carnival. If there was a tipping point against Maddon, it was in the Series where many of his moves got immediately questioned by both players and fans. One can pinpoint the players only rain delay meeting that could be the first rail split between manager and his players when they decided to win the series in spite of their manager's moves. Maddon still needs to both motivate and develop his players through another season. He now has to balance bigger egos and real competition for positions. It will be a new minefield to navigate especially when the local press is ready, willing and able to criticize his every move.
FIVE REASONS CUBS CAN REPEAT
1. Kyle Schwarber.
Having Schwarber for a full season is a significant upgrade to the offense. His serious knee injury downgrades the offensive depth at the catching position, and adds to left field negative defensive stats, but Schwarber is the inspirational contact hitter the Cubs lineup really needs to help settle it into a consistent machine.
2. Experience.
The experience factor is huge. The current Cubs now know how to win. They know how to pace themselves through a season. Pitchers are now more savvy on conserving their energy for a long season. Position players know how Maddon likes to move them around on the field and in the line up.
3. Wade Davis.
Davis is no Chapman, but he is a quality closer. Last season, Davis went 2-1, 1.87 ERA, 27 saves and 1.131 WHIP for a 1.8 WAR. He will add the stabilizer to another bullpen in the midst of a retooling. If Davis cannot go, the Cubs have some insurance with Rondon, Strop and Uehara who have closed games in the past.
4. Less Pressure.
The Cubs enter this season with less expectations. Fans are still drifting on Cloud Nine with their first multi-generational championship season. They are not clamoring for a repeat with the drumbeat of a spoiled brat. The players themselves have less pressure on to win a championship. They can continue to relax and play the game instead of grinding out wins. This Cubs team is best when it takes a carefree approach.
5. Javy Baez.
Baez was the most electric player in the World Baseball Championship (WBC) series. He now rates as an international superstar player. He has the skills and the flash to become a national baseball icon. The Cubs will have to get him more playing time because his talent demands it. And the fans want to see him play.
FIVE REASONS CUBS CANNOT REPEAT
1. Injuries.
Some core aspects of the team are young. But the starting pitching staff (Lester, Arrieta and Lackey) have experience but there is always the nagging thought of reliability. The Cubs went through 2016 without a significant long term injury to key players. The odds are against them this year. When Rizzo had back tightness early in spring training, it was dismissed quickly. But if you look at the roster, there are positions like first base and starting rotation that is devoid of quality depth.
2. Rotation.
Maddon has set his rotation: Lester, Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson and Hendricks. Lester deserves the status of being the ace of the staff. Arrieta has been unreal at times. Lackey being the 3rd starter shows the level of concern. He is at the end of the line as a 5th starter. Brian Anderson is the new guy having a terrible spring. But Mike Montgomery has not blown him away to earn the starting spot. In fact, Maddon likes Montgomery as swing man in the bullpen. Hendricks being the 5th starter may be the best one in the National League, but it is a protection move from the career workload of innings pitched last season. This season's rotation does not seem as strong as last year's.
3. Log jams.
The players get along. The clubhouse seems to be a happy place. But this year there will be some tension over the amount of playing time for position players. There will be public debates on how much playing time Baez gets as compared to Zobrist, Schwarber or even a LaStella. Even though Maddon can move players to multiple positions, he will not be able to appease each of them because they believe they have earned a full time starting position. Depth is a great asset but it can be a liability of dissent. If the Cubs have significant injuries, one or more of their young players could be pressured to be traded to shore up the roster. That can create tension between the manager and the front office.
4. Malaise.
The Ricketts family's 2017 focus is not on the Cubs but all its real estate projects around Wrigley Field. The Chicago real estate market is not in rebound mode. For the second consecutive year, Cook County and Chicago led the nation in population flight. The large corporate base that used to spend millions on sky boxes and luxury tickets has been tempered in the metro area. The Cubs raised ticket prices an average of 31 percent in order to capture more revenue from the Cubs while the slow construction of new revenue sources goes on. Epstein has acknowledged that the Cubs did not do much this off-season because he is under a strict budget cap. Ricketts does not want to spend any money on baseball luxury taxes as he had to do last season. As such, Epstein is again cornered with having to find a creative solution to a money squeeze. The last thing he wants to do is to trade away young, cheap and talented players to shore up his pitching staff. But he might have to do it since the organization has no minor league pitching depth.
5. Maddon.
Maddon kept his team loose and on the same page since his tenure as the Cubs skipper. His magic act has led to a championship. He deserves some credit for the team's success. But his juggling act, tee shirt slogans and funny bits can prove to be tiresome to some veteran players who may want more professionalism on the team than a fraternity carnival. If there was a tipping point against Maddon, it was in the Series where many of his moves got immediately questioned by both players and fans. One can pinpoint the players only rain delay meeting that could be the first rail split between manager and his players when they decided to win the series in spite of their manager's moves. Maddon still needs to both motivate and develop his players through another season. He now has to balance bigger egos and real competition for positions. It will be a new minefield to navigate especially when the local press is ready, willing and able to criticize his every move.
February 16, 2017
MADDON BEING ?
Spring training usually opens with hope and optimism.
But Cubs camp opened with the strange ramblings of its manager, Joe Maddon.
Maddon spent a great deal of time inarticulately trying to explain his tee-shirt slogan for the 2017 campaign. It left the packed room of reporters puzzled by his statements.
Maddon rambled on with his buzzwords for the new year: uncomfortable, authenticity and heart. In a long speech, he tried to communicate that he wanted his players to continue to feel "uncomfortable" in order for there to be growth. He wanted his players to retain their authenticity. Except, Maddon was not really discussing his desire that his players retain their reliability. He was off in his own tangent. He also stressed that he wanted the team to retain its Heart, which may or may not refer to the players resolve and love of the game.
Maddon, having won the World Series, could have been more reserved and stately in addressing the media. It raised immediate questions of whether Maddon's 2016 routine is going to work in 2017.
In 2016, Maddon kept his squad loose with antics, dress up days and pajama flights. He wanted his young squad to keep playing the game fun. It was a pressure valve release mechanism. The team bought into his management style.
But some writers question whether the "rain delay" players meeting in Game 7 changes the Maddon coaching chemistry. It was the players who were upset with Maddon's decision making in Games 6 and 7. The bottom line from numerous sources after the series confirmed that the players took it upon themselves to win the championship in spite of Maddon's moves. It was not a full blown mutiny, but it was the first crack in the genius armor.
Some pundits do not believe that grizzly veterans like John Lackey or Jon Lester are going to put up with the off-the-field clubhouse antics of magicians, side shows and zoo animal diversions. Some believe it is time to take the club to a professional level. The players are now veterans. They know what it takes to win a championship. They do not need to be coddled or treated like children.
And things may not be perfect in 2017. The Giants won a world series, then failed to get in the playoffs the next year, then won it all again the following year. Baseball is a game of attrition. The Cubs weathered Kyle Schwarber's lost season and Jason Heyward's batting slump. The Cubs lucked out with a healthy and productive five man rotation.
There were many questions that have not been answered by the Cubs. The off-season collection of cast-off starters to stock AAA Iowa enough to hold the rotation together for a full season when Lackey may be on his last fumes? Will Mike Montgomery become a quality starter or fade to an expendable arm like he did in Seattle? Can the Cubs pitching staff overcome the losses of Jason Hammel and Travis Wood's contributions? Will the young players like Schwarber and Javy Baez get enough playing time to soothe their egos? Will Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant continue to improve or will they have a regression year as the league studies their tendencies?
If Maddon continues to be the lovable, hippie uncle to his players, one wonders how long will it take for the players to zone out and disconnect from the Maddon circus wagon. The showman needs to show the baseball world that last year's managerial run was not a fluke. Early statistical projections have the Cubs sitting at 91 wins, which is more than a 10 percent decline from 2016. It is clear that media honeymoon period with the media is over. Maddon is going to get more criticism in 2017 than in the past. His team is expected to repeat, a feat that has not been accomplished since the Big Red Machine of the 1970s. This spring Maddon may need to re-invent himself to meet this challenge.
But Cubs camp opened with the strange ramblings of its manager, Joe Maddon.
Maddon spent a great deal of time inarticulately trying to explain his tee-shirt slogan for the 2017 campaign. It left the packed room of reporters puzzled by his statements.
Maddon rambled on with his buzzwords for the new year: uncomfortable, authenticity and heart. In a long speech, he tried to communicate that he wanted his players to continue to feel "uncomfortable" in order for there to be growth. He wanted his players to retain their authenticity. Except, Maddon was not really discussing his desire that his players retain their reliability. He was off in his own tangent. He also stressed that he wanted the team to retain its Heart, which may or may not refer to the players resolve and love of the game.
Maddon, having won the World Series, could have been more reserved and stately in addressing the media. It raised immediate questions of whether Maddon's 2016 routine is going to work in 2017.
In 2016, Maddon kept his squad loose with antics, dress up days and pajama flights. He wanted his young squad to keep playing the game fun. It was a pressure valve release mechanism. The team bought into his management style.
But some writers question whether the "rain delay" players meeting in Game 7 changes the Maddon coaching chemistry. It was the players who were upset with Maddon's decision making in Games 6 and 7. The bottom line from numerous sources after the series confirmed that the players took it upon themselves to win the championship in spite of Maddon's moves. It was not a full blown mutiny, but it was the first crack in the genius armor.
Some pundits do not believe that grizzly veterans like John Lackey or Jon Lester are going to put up with the off-the-field clubhouse antics of magicians, side shows and zoo animal diversions. Some believe it is time to take the club to a professional level. The players are now veterans. They know what it takes to win a championship. They do not need to be coddled or treated like children.
And things may not be perfect in 2017. The Giants won a world series, then failed to get in the playoffs the next year, then won it all again the following year. Baseball is a game of attrition. The Cubs weathered Kyle Schwarber's lost season and Jason Heyward's batting slump. The Cubs lucked out with a healthy and productive five man rotation.
There were many questions that have not been answered by the Cubs. The off-season collection of cast-off starters to stock AAA Iowa enough to hold the rotation together for a full season when Lackey may be on his last fumes? Will Mike Montgomery become a quality starter or fade to an expendable arm like he did in Seattle? Can the Cubs pitching staff overcome the losses of Jason Hammel and Travis Wood's contributions? Will the young players like Schwarber and Javy Baez get enough playing time to soothe their egos? Will Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant continue to improve or will they have a regression year as the league studies their tendencies?
If Maddon continues to be the lovable, hippie uncle to his players, one wonders how long will it take for the players to zone out and disconnect from the Maddon circus wagon. The showman needs to show the baseball world that last year's managerial run was not a fluke. Early statistical projections have the Cubs sitting at 91 wins, which is more than a 10 percent decline from 2016. It is clear that media honeymoon period with the media is over. Maddon is going to get more criticism in 2017 than in the past. His team is expected to repeat, a feat that has not been accomplished since the Big Red Machine of the 1970s. This spring Maddon may need to re-invent himself to meet this challenge.
November 6, 2016
THAT WAS QUICK
The parade had not even started before the angry trolls and out-of-town columnists began to sandbag the historic Cub championship.
It was not mere jealousy. It was more like contempt.
The Lovable Losers moniker has been destroyed in dramatic fashion. The Cubs re-cemented themselves as the national baseball team, to the disdain of the folks in Boston or New York or St. Louis.
It may also be a combination of fear. Fear that the Cubs could go on a vintage Yankees run of several consecutive championship seasons. The young is is still very young. Most of the starting pitchers will be back in 2017. The Cubs could still spend more (given the chance by ownership) to get replacement free agents. Yes, other NL clubs are looking down the double barrel of a shotgun.
There may be also a sense in the negative fandom of other teams that their punching bag is gone. A security blanket that their own team does not suck as bad as the Cubs. The Cubs were destined to never be good. There were annual "Cubbie occurrences" which sabotaged their seasons. People outside Chicago loved to watch the slow car crash that was the Old Cubs.
But that has now changed - - - forever.
There is no Next Year. There is no joke that the Cubs "can't lose today (because they are not playing.)" There are a hoard of screaming people waving "W" blankets in the streets and bars throughout the country. They are the New Cub Nation. Their overwhelming release of joy and relief was a tsunami of emotions for generations of fans, alive and dead.
The Game 7 telecast was the highest rated baseball game in 15 years. A media pundit may conclude in a few years that Cubs-Indians World Series was the turning point to put baseball back on the same television platform as the NFL, which has been the dominate American sports franchise but is now under the pressure of significant ratings drop.
The Cubs victory puts pressure on other teams and fans to be introspective and critical of their own teams success and failures. And that is usually not an easy thing. Being a fan is a form of escapism. Being a Cub fan was a form of communal penance for a long forgotten sin.
One of the least recognized fears is the Fear of Success. If you attain something important in your life, there is a sudden panic realization of "what's next?!" Pause for a moment. You are no longer a door mat. You have achieved a life dream. You have had the greatest release of endorphin rush for the past two weeks. You have been in the clouds for the past 36 hours. It is like opening the greatest Christmas present, ever.
How do you top this feeling?
You don't. It is a once in a lifetime burst of wonderment and joy. It cannot be repeated at the same level of newness, surprise or desire. "Just win one in my lifetime" prayer has been answered by the baseball gods.
Even if there is a second, third or fourth championship (like the Bulls or Blackhawks), the first one is the most memorable, the most important, the most connected to the fans. it would be nice to go on a long run of winning to help enhance today's accomplishment. It gives one more ammo in bar talks comparing other teams to the Cubs.
But fans, especially the casual ones, will not mortgage their homes, max out their credit cards, ditch school or work, to spend 10 days in Wrigleyville buying expensive playoff tickets, $150 cover charges just to get into bars to eat and drink during games, or spend $50 for special event T-shirts. No, those premium prices will plummet in 2017. Supply and demand. The 2016 Cubs supplied what the fans always wanted - - - the championship. The 2017 Cubs could repeat, but fans who tapped out to see the promised land will not have the same level of interest to spend $3,000 for a playoff ticket. The casual fan caught up in the moment may not return. The demand for Cubs stuff, including games, will decline so the supply (cost) will have to be lowered to sustain a reasonable, connected fan base.
The great irony is that a Cubs world championship is probably the worst thing to happen to the Ricketts family. They paid a premium for the team because of its history and loyal fan base. The Cubs sold the possibility of ending a century of futility. They are paying a fortune to build a Disneyland of commercial properties around Wrigley Field. This season they received no revenue from these huge real estate projects. If the fan base does temper its expectations and spending habits, the Ricketts may be building an entire white elephant entertainment district.
There will be plenty of Christmas boxes filled with the discount championship logos. And by the time spring training will arrive in Arizona, there will be no crushing presence of whether "this is the year?" because 2016 was The Year. Hope will turn to Expectation of a repeat, but there will not be the emotional investment if the Cubs fail to achieve a second title. And thus, the Cubs marquee franchise will settle down into the peer group of being a very good team year over year to the knowledgeable fan. The only bristle will be the arguments with other team fans on where this Cub team ranks in history of the game. Or the fact the Cubs have only one title in 108 years. So what? Cubs diehards will reply. It does not matter anymore. The Cubs are the World Champions. That can never be taken away or diminished in bar talk or negative columns. It will be the permanent memory in the psyche of many people - - - hardwired in like the memories of where you were when JFK was assassinated, or when the planes hit the towers on 9/11. But this will be a joyful memory that will comfort people for a long, long time.
It was not mere jealousy. It was more like contempt.
The Lovable Losers moniker has been destroyed in dramatic fashion. The Cubs re-cemented themselves as the national baseball team, to the disdain of the folks in Boston or New York or St. Louis.
It may also be a combination of fear. Fear that the Cubs could go on a vintage Yankees run of several consecutive championship seasons. The young is is still very young. Most of the starting pitchers will be back in 2017. The Cubs could still spend more (given the chance by ownership) to get replacement free agents. Yes, other NL clubs are looking down the double barrel of a shotgun.
There may be also a sense in the negative fandom of other teams that their punching bag is gone. A security blanket that their own team does not suck as bad as the Cubs. The Cubs were destined to never be good. There were annual "Cubbie occurrences" which sabotaged their seasons. People outside Chicago loved to watch the slow car crash that was the Old Cubs.
But that has now changed - - - forever.
There is no Next Year. There is no joke that the Cubs "can't lose today (because they are not playing.)" There are a hoard of screaming people waving "W" blankets in the streets and bars throughout the country. They are the New Cub Nation. Their overwhelming release of joy and relief was a tsunami of emotions for generations of fans, alive and dead.
The Game 7 telecast was the highest rated baseball game in 15 years. A media pundit may conclude in a few years that Cubs-Indians World Series was the turning point to put baseball back on the same television platform as the NFL, which has been the dominate American sports franchise but is now under the pressure of significant ratings drop.
The Cubs victory puts pressure on other teams and fans to be introspective and critical of their own teams success and failures. And that is usually not an easy thing. Being a fan is a form of escapism. Being a Cub fan was a form of communal penance for a long forgotten sin.
One of the least recognized fears is the Fear of Success. If you attain something important in your life, there is a sudden panic realization of "what's next?!" Pause for a moment. You are no longer a door mat. You have achieved a life dream. You have had the greatest release of endorphin rush for the past two weeks. You have been in the clouds for the past 36 hours. It is like opening the greatest Christmas present, ever.
How do you top this feeling?
You don't. It is a once in a lifetime burst of wonderment and joy. It cannot be repeated at the same level of newness, surprise or desire. "Just win one in my lifetime" prayer has been answered by the baseball gods.
Even if there is a second, third or fourth championship (like the Bulls or Blackhawks), the first one is the most memorable, the most important, the most connected to the fans. it would be nice to go on a long run of winning to help enhance today's accomplishment. It gives one more ammo in bar talks comparing other teams to the Cubs.
But fans, especially the casual ones, will not mortgage their homes, max out their credit cards, ditch school or work, to spend 10 days in Wrigleyville buying expensive playoff tickets, $150 cover charges just to get into bars to eat and drink during games, or spend $50 for special event T-shirts. No, those premium prices will plummet in 2017. Supply and demand. The 2016 Cubs supplied what the fans always wanted - - - the championship. The 2017 Cubs could repeat, but fans who tapped out to see the promised land will not have the same level of interest to spend $3,000 for a playoff ticket. The casual fan caught up in the moment may not return. The demand for Cubs stuff, including games, will decline so the supply (cost) will have to be lowered to sustain a reasonable, connected fan base.
The great irony is that a Cubs world championship is probably the worst thing to happen to the Ricketts family. They paid a premium for the team because of its history and loyal fan base. The Cubs sold the possibility of ending a century of futility. They are paying a fortune to build a Disneyland of commercial properties around Wrigley Field. This season they received no revenue from these huge real estate projects. If the fan base does temper its expectations and spending habits, the Ricketts may be building an entire white elephant entertainment district.
There will be plenty of Christmas boxes filled with the discount championship logos. And by the time spring training will arrive in Arizona, there will be no crushing presence of whether "this is the year?" because 2016 was The Year. Hope will turn to Expectation of a repeat, but there will not be the emotional investment if the Cubs fail to achieve a second title. And thus, the Cubs marquee franchise will settle down into the peer group of being a very good team year over year to the knowledgeable fan. The only bristle will be the arguments with other team fans on where this Cub team ranks in history of the game. Or the fact the Cubs have only one title in 108 years. So what? Cubs diehards will reply. It does not matter anymore. The Cubs are the World Champions. That can never be taken away or diminished in bar talk or negative columns. It will be the permanent memory in the psyche of many people - - - hardwired in like the memories of where you were when JFK was assassinated, or when the planes hit the towers on 9/11. But this will be a joyful memory that will comfort people for a long, long time.
November 3, 2016
FAILURE WAS NOT AN OPTION
This season started with hope. There were high expectations for the Cubs.
Since spring training, I thought the key to the season would be Kyle Schwarber. His photo was on this blog for the season. But then he got injured in an outfield collision, he was gone for the season. Two torn ligaments. He would be out to at least spring training.
But by midseason, expectations turned into the final mission: championship or bust.
Clearly, the 2016 Cubs were the best team on paper and in the field. The team had the luxury of five quality starting pitchers. The young core was supplemented by new, energized rookies. Knock on a redwood, the Cubs did not have any further significant injuries, especially to their starting pitchers.
Two midseason pick ups helped the final push. Long relief starter Mike Montgomery and ace closer Aroldis Chapman. The bullpen was set up for a lights out finish.
The mild concerns going into the post season were typical. Would the young Cub players handle the pressure of 108 years of media and fan angst? Would Joe Maddon suddenly change his style to start to overthink and overmanage games? The latter did come true, even in the critical Game 7 decision to pull Kyle Hendricks with a large lead in favor a Jon Lester who threw at least 2 side sessions waiting in the bullpen for two innings. Maddon second guessed his own pregame blue print when he brought Lester in with a man on base (instead of starting a clean inning.) The same was true with Chapman.
The saving grace to any Maddon miscues was Terry Francona's own blueprint to use only 3 starters in the series. Running his ace to start three games in 10 days had to have helped the Cub hitters adjust to his curve ball. The idea of having a Kluber-Miller-Allen 9 inning game to win the Series was sound. It was just the Cubs did not cooperate. Or not cooperate fully, since the Indians had several dramatic comebacks in the game to take it to extra innings.
The Indians had three chances to win it. Francona managed Games 5, 6 and 7 as they were final games. He did not want to let up. That is why he is one of the better skippers in the game. But the Indians were just short on big game heroics. In an irony, the Cubs turned into the better AL club with a DH stroking the ball and a better running game.
So I was at peace during the game. No emotional roller coaster as happened to many family members and friends who lived and died on every pitch. I had predicted Cubs in 5. I thought the last three games set up well for the Cubs starters. The one thing that I kept saying was that the Cubs had to win the championship this season. This was The Year.
The reason was simple. It is so hard to repeat in professional sports, especially baseball with its long season and heavy toll on athletes. 2015 was the dress rehearsal for the Big Dance.
The 2016 Cubs are a very likeable team. The chemistry and purpose was shown when Jason Heyward, mired in a season long funk, spoke to players during the rain delay about being teammates and picking each other up (especially Chapman who had blown the lead). Players said afterward that helped pick them up for the 10th inning and eventual victory.
There will be many players not on the squad next season, including Chapman, Ross, Jason Hammel, Dexter Fowler, and many bullpen arms. But they will have the vivid memory of being part of the team that won the most important championship in Chicago history. As Jason Stark wrote, it was the greatest post season baseball Game 7 contest in history.
All Hail the Cubs, champions of the world. We spent way too much time watching Cub baseball this summer. We drank way too much watching Cub post season games in the bars or at Wrigley Field. We spent way too much money on tickets and merchandise to physically grasp The Moment. So many people shed a tear for those who missed out on this life milestone.
The Cubs accomplished something they set out to do in Spring Training. Win. Win it All. Well done.
Since spring training, I thought the key to the season would be Kyle Schwarber. His photo was on this blog for the season. But then he got injured in an outfield collision, he was gone for the season. Two torn ligaments. He would be out to at least spring training.
But by midseason, expectations turned into the final mission: championship or bust.
Clearly, the 2016 Cubs were the best team on paper and in the field. The team had the luxury of five quality starting pitchers. The young core was supplemented by new, energized rookies. Knock on a redwood, the Cubs did not have any further significant injuries, especially to their starting pitchers.
Two midseason pick ups helped the final push. Long relief starter Mike Montgomery and ace closer Aroldis Chapman. The bullpen was set up for a lights out finish.
The mild concerns going into the post season were typical. Would the young Cub players handle the pressure of 108 years of media and fan angst? Would Joe Maddon suddenly change his style to start to overthink and overmanage games? The latter did come true, even in the critical Game 7 decision to pull Kyle Hendricks with a large lead in favor a Jon Lester who threw at least 2 side sessions waiting in the bullpen for two innings. Maddon second guessed his own pregame blue print when he brought Lester in with a man on base (instead of starting a clean inning.) The same was true with Chapman.
The saving grace to any Maddon miscues was Terry Francona's own blueprint to use only 3 starters in the series. Running his ace to start three games in 10 days had to have helped the Cub hitters adjust to his curve ball. The idea of having a Kluber-Miller-Allen 9 inning game to win the Series was sound. It was just the Cubs did not cooperate. Or not cooperate fully, since the Indians had several dramatic comebacks in the game to take it to extra innings.
The Indians had three chances to win it. Francona managed Games 5, 6 and 7 as they were final games. He did not want to let up. That is why he is one of the better skippers in the game. But the Indians were just short on big game heroics. In an irony, the Cubs turned into the better AL club with a DH stroking the ball and a better running game.
So I was at peace during the game. No emotional roller coaster as happened to many family members and friends who lived and died on every pitch. I had predicted Cubs in 5. I thought the last three games set up well for the Cubs starters. The one thing that I kept saying was that the Cubs had to win the championship this season. This was The Year.
The reason was simple. It is so hard to repeat in professional sports, especially baseball with its long season and heavy toll on athletes. 2015 was the dress rehearsal for the Big Dance.
The 2016 Cubs are a very likeable team. The chemistry and purpose was shown when Jason Heyward, mired in a season long funk, spoke to players during the rain delay about being teammates and picking each other up (especially Chapman who had blown the lead). Players said afterward that helped pick them up for the 10th inning and eventual victory.
There will be many players not on the squad next season, including Chapman, Ross, Jason Hammel, Dexter Fowler, and many bullpen arms. But they will have the vivid memory of being part of the team that won the most important championship in Chicago history. As Jason Stark wrote, it was the greatest post season baseball Game 7 contest in history.
All Hail the Cubs, champions of the world. We spent way too much time watching Cub baseball this summer. We drank way too much watching Cub post season games in the bars or at Wrigley Field. We spent way too much money on tickets and merchandise to physically grasp The Moment. So many people shed a tear for those who missed out on this life milestone.
The Cubs accomplished something they set out to do in Spring Training. Win. Win it All. Well done.
April 4, 2016
THE KEY TO THE SEASON
One word: Schwarber.
Of all the Cubs who may improve or flounder in their sophomore season, Kyle Schwarber is the one player that fills the entire spectrum of fan ecstasy to doubt. He is the key to the Cubs season.
He has the compact swing to make contact on any count and on any pitch. However, he only hit .246 last season. He is projected to have 294 AB, 16 HR, 47 RBI which is similar to his 2015 numbers. That may be fine for a bench player, but not a starter.
Schwarber appears to be Jason Hammel's personal catcher, by default. The Cubs are going to give Schwarber the opportunity to play the position he wants to play, catcher. So Schwarber will get 30 games behind the plate, or 40 AB.
Schwarber appears to be set for a platoon in LF with Jorge Soler. An even split would be 66 games or 264 AB.
Schwarber will DH in AL games so that may be another dozen or 48 AB.
That gets him up to 352 AB, or 19.7 % more AB than projected at Baseball Reference.
But it also shows that Schwarber, at best, will start in 98 games this season. Is that enough to get him into a steady rhythm and habit where he can maintain his batting concentration for a full season like he did in the minors?
And what happens when he gets into his first slump? Will Joe Maddon continue to play him, or with all the other options he has, does Maddon go with the "hot" hand. And in close games when defense is a premium, will Maddon defer to better defenders such as Ross, Montero or Szczur?
We hope that Schwarber has a break out year like Kris Bryant did in 2015 (.275 BA, 26 HR, 99 RBI).
The public knows the Cubs can be good, very good because they surprised the world last year. Most of the young Cubs still have not hit their professional ceiling (such as Addison Russell, who writers believe will have the break-out season). The Cubs have a lot of moving parts, and sometimes just one gear can gum up the entire machine.
Schwarber will still be the fan favorite because his hustle and his monster HRs. But there is going to be added pressure this year because the Cubs have made it clear that the catcher of the future is not Schwarber but Wilson Contreras, who will start in AAA Iowa.
Of all the Cubs who may improve or flounder in their sophomore season, Kyle Schwarber is the one player that fills the entire spectrum of fan ecstasy to doubt. He is the key to the Cubs season.
He has the compact swing to make contact on any count and on any pitch. However, he only hit .246 last season. He is projected to have 294 AB, 16 HR, 47 RBI which is similar to his 2015 numbers. That may be fine for a bench player, but not a starter.
Schwarber appears to be Jason Hammel's personal catcher, by default. The Cubs are going to give Schwarber the opportunity to play the position he wants to play, catcher. So Schwarber will get 30 games behind the plate, or 40 AB.
Schwarber appears to be set for a platoon in LF with Jorge Soler. An even split would be 66 games or 264 AB.
Schwarber will DH in AL games so that may be another dozen or 48 AB.
That gets him up to 352 AB, or 19.7 % more AB than projected at Baseball Reference.
But it also shows that Schwarber, at best, will start in 98 games this season. Is that enough to get him into a steady rhythm and habit where he can maintain his batting concentration for a full season like he did in the minors?
And what happens when he gets into his first slump? Will Joe Maddon continue to play him, or with all the other options he has, does Maddon go with the "hot" hand. And in close games when defense is a premium, will Maddon defer to better defenders such as Ross, Montero or Szczur?
We hope that Schwarber has a break out year like Kris Bryant did in 2015 (.275 BA, 26 HR, 99 RBI).
The public knows the Cubs can be good, very good because they surprised the world last year. Most of the young Cubs still have not hit their professional ceiling (such as Addison Russell, who writers believe will have the break-out season). The Cubs have a lot of moving parts, and sometimes just one gear can gum up the entire machine.
Schwarber will still be the fan favorite because his hustle and his monster HRs. But there is going to be added pressure this year because the Cubs have made it clear that the catcher of the future is not Schwarber but Wilson Contreras, who will start in AAA Iowa.
December 11, 2015
SHOCK AND AWE
Multiple reports state that the Cubs will sign free agent Justin Heyward.
This is a shocking development since the Cubs have been gerrymandering their books in order to sign Ben Zobrist and John Lackey.
It may go back to a comment made last week.
"We have a sense of urgency. We have a short championship window."
Jed Hoyer said that last week.
Talk about "the Plan" being turned inside out.
The front office has been frantic in their change in philosophy, spending
2015 "leftover" money (maybe the extra revenue from this post season),
deferring/back loading contracts and trading veterans for salary dumps.
Perhaps it is because Theo Epstein's contract expires in October 2016.
Perhaps the writing is on the wall that the Boom Revenue of 2020 is a mirage.
Perhaps because the Cubs won't be able to afford signing Bryant, Schwarber,
Soler and Russell.
And because the core of the pitching staff is on the downside of career
(Lester and Lackey) and one (Arrieta) who had an unrepeatable magical season.
One report said the Nationals offered Heyward $200 million. The Cub report says Heyward will sign for less than $200 million.
Analysts have had a wide range of opinions on Heyward's value, from a low of $100 million to a high end $192 million. It was reported that Heyward was looking for $24 million/season, money usually reserved for power hitters like Pujols and Cano (Heyward only hit .293, 13 HR, 60 RBI last year).
There is also an open question whether Heyward can play an expanded center field between slow footed, negative defenders Schwarber and Soler.
By coming to the Cubs, Heyward can hide in the shadows of other players such as Lester, Rizzo, Bryant and Schwarber.
And the Cubs have gone "all in" in 2016 so that may have convinced Heyward to sign with Chicago.
This is a shocking development since the Cubs have been gerrymandering their books in order to sign Ben Zobrist and John Lackey.
It may go back to a comment made last week.
"We have a sense of urgency. We have a short championship window."
Jed Hoyer said that last week.
Talk about "the Plan" being turned inside out.
The front office has been frantic in their change in philosophy, spending
2015 "leftover" money (maybe the extra revenue from this post season),
deferring/back loading contracts and trading veterans for salary dumps.
Perhaps it is because Theo Epstein's contract expires in October 2016.
Perhaps the writing is on the wall that the Boom Revenue of 2020 is a mirage.
Perhaps because the Cubs won't be able to afford signing Bryant, Schwarber,
Soler and Russell.
And because the core of the pitching staff is on the downside of career
(Lester and Lackey) and one (Arrieta) who had an unrepeatable magical season.
One report said the Nationals offered Heyward $200 million. The Cub report says Heyward will sign for less than $200 million.
Analysts have had a wide range of opinions on Heyward's value, from a low of $100 million to a high end $192 million. It was reported that Heyward was looking for $24 million/season, money usually reserved for power hitters like Pujols and Cano (Heyward only hit .293, 13 HR, 60 RBI last year).
There is also an open question whether Heyward can play an expanded center field between slow footed, negative defenders Schwarber and Soler.
By coming to the Cubs, Heyward can hide in the shadows of other players such as Lester, Rizzo, Bryant and Schwarber.
And the Cubs have gone "all in" in 2016 so that may have convinced Heyward to sign with Chicago.
October 21, 2015
LEARNING EXPERIENCE
There are measuring posts throughout everyone's life.
Milestones and millstones where one can take stock.
Tuesday night was one of those moments.
Just as the Chicago Bulls had to defeat their nemesis, the Pistons;
Just as the Blackhawks had to defeat their bitter rival, the Red Wings,
the Cubs have to learn to win in the post season when the pressure is at its peak.
“We haven’t played our best baseball and they’ve pitched really well,” Theo Epstein said to a throng of reporters after the 5-2 defeat.
Down 3-0 in a series is a death sentence. Only one team, the 2004 Red Sox have come back from that sinkhole. Some people may think there is still hope, but when the skies opened up with rain in the last inning, it was a signal that the heavenly water would mask the tears of the fans in the stands.
Mental errors by the Cubs outnumbered the physical errors by 10 to 1.
Joe Maddon was out-managed by Terry Collins.
The Mets pitching has been far superior. They realized that throwing fastballs to the Cubs was a recipe for disaster. So it was an overload of secondary pitches, which the Cub hitters failed to adjust to in the first three games.
The Cubs pitching looks gassed from a long season. A piece meal bullpen has now started to crack. The Mets continued to put pressure on the base paths causing the Cubs defenders to make mistakes. The Mets manufactured runs while the Cubs were passively waiting to hit home runs.
One would have hoped that the Cub players would have gotten better as as series progressed, but the "cold" start continued through last night's game. Tonight, with Hammel on the mound with a shorter leash than Hendricks, it will be another "bullpen" game which shows how far behind the Cubs are from the Mets, who will throw another very good rookie starter, Steven Matz, in Game 4.
The Mets are poised to make deep runs for the next several years. They have been compared to the Atlanta Braves who had a stellar pitching staff of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. Starting pitching is the hardest asset to develop or find. That is why star starters are commanding $20 million per season.
The Cubs must now know that the axiom that good pitching defeats good hitting has merit. The Cubs need two or three more quality starters in order to compete with the Cardinals and Pirates. The free agent market has many quality pitchers, but the price tag may be too high to snare a Greinke, Price or Zimmerman.
The Cubs also have to learn that next season the expectations are going to be sky high. They also must realize that teams of destiny, like the Nationals the past few seasons, don't mean anything if you cannot perform under the pressure of the limelight.
The Cubs exceeded everyone's expectations this season, including the front office. But 2016 seems to be the year that the promise of hope is erased with the expectation of a championship or bust. The Cubs do not have the pitching in the minor leagues to fill in the huge holes in the rotation. The Cubs need more consistency from the #3 and 4 starters. Also, the bullpen will have to be rebuilt. The Cubs still need more consistent hitters in the lineup so as not to rely on home run or bust. The team cannot rely on the "core" of Rizzo, Bryant and Schwarber to create the offense. Fowler will be gone in free agency so the team has a major hole at lead off to fill.
It was good and surprising season for the Cubs. Bonus baseball was great.
2016 is the real turning point for the franchise.
Milestones and millstones where one can take stock.
Tuesday night was one of those moments.
Just as the Chicago Bulls had to defeat their nemesis, the Pistons;
Just as the Blackhawks had to defeat their bitter rival, the Red Wings,
the Cubs have to learn to win in the post season when the pressure is at its peak.
“We haven’t played our best baseball and they’ve pitched really well,” Theo Epstein said to a throng of reporters after the 5-2 defeat.
Down 3-0 in a series is a death sentence. Only one team, the 2004 Red Sox have come back from that sinkhole. Some people may think there is still hope, but when the skies opened up with rain in the last inning, it was a signal that the heavenly water would mask the tears of the fans in the stands.
Mental errors by the Cubs outnumbered the physical errors by 10 to 1.
Joe Maddon was out-managed by Terry Collins.
The Mets pitching has been far superior. They realized that throwing fastballs to the Cubs was a recipe for disaster. So it was an overload of secondary pitches, which the Cub hitters failed to adjust to in the first three games.
The Cubs pitching looks gassed from a long season. A piece meal bullpen has now started to crack. The Mets continued to put pressure on the base paths causing the Cubs defenders to make mistakes. The Mets manufactured runs while the Cubs were passively waiting to hit home runs.
One would have hoped that the Cub players would have gotten better as as series progressed, but the "cold" start continued through last night's game. Tonight, with Hammel on the mound with a shorter leash than Hendricks, it will be another "bullpen" game which shows how far behind the Cubs are from the Mets, who will throw another very good rookie starter, Steven Matz, in Game 4.
The Mets are poised to make deep runs for the next several years. They have been compared to the Atlanta Braves who had a stellar pitching staff of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. Starting pitching is the hardest asset to develop or find. That is why star starters are commanding $20 million per season.
The Cubs must now know that the axiom that good pitching defeats good hitting has merit. The Cubs need two or three more quality starters in order to compete with the Cardinals and Pirates. The free agent market has many quality pitchers, but the price tag may be too high to snare a Greinke, Price or Zimmerman.
The Cubs also have to learn that next season the expectations are going to be sky high. They also must realize that teams of destiny, like the Nationals the past few seasons, don't mean anything if you cannot perform under the pressure of the limelight.
The Cubs exceeded everyone's expectations this season, including the front office. But 2016 seems to be the year that the promise of hope is erased with the expectation of a championship or bust. The Cubs do not have the pitching in the minor leagues to fill in the huge holes in the rotation. The Cubs need more consistency from the #3 and 4 starters. Also, the bullpen will have to be rebuilt. The Cubs still need more consistent hitters in the lineup so as not to rely on home run or bust. The team cannot rely on the "core" of Rizzo, Bryant and Schwarber to create the offense. Fowler will be gone in free agency so the team has a major hole at lead off to fill.
It was good and surprising season for the Cubs. Bonus baseball was great.
2016 is the real turning point for the franchise.
March 15, 2015
THE GOOD BAD PROBLEM
The Cubs have talked themselves into another problem.
First, it was owner Tom Ricketts who cheerleaded his thoughts to proclaim at the Cub convention that the 2015 squad was going to win the NL Central. Second, new Theo Epstein and his management crew seconded that sentiment, which put fans into an over-optimistic fever. Third, Joe Maddon came out of the box saying the same thing: the Cubs will win the division. Fourth, many players started repeating this hype.
All is well and good if there was a chance in hell for such instant success. But there are more believers than realists.
But since the team talked itself into promising a divisional championship, and a play off birth this year, Ricketts and management need to do whatever it takes to make that happen. They have obligated themselves to do whatever is reasonable and necessary to compete and win every contest this season as the Cardinals and Pirates will field strong teams.
So when #1 prospect comes to spring training, the media is told Kris Bryant will not make it to the opening day roster, even though the team traded away the caretaker 3B Luis Valbuena in the off-season. No, Bryant will have to stay in Iowa for business reasons, so to withhold the path to early free agency five years down the road. The fans don't want "business" reasons to interfere with "winning the division" assurances. Ricketts is a millionaire, the team is worth more than a billion dollars, pay Bryant when the time comes but play him now. There is no reason to candy coat a winning culture with a cheapskate excuse.
To complicate things is that Bryant is putting shock and awe in the stands. So far, Bryant's production has been Ruthian: 20 AB, 9, H, .450 BA, 6 HR, 9 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K, .522 OBP, 1.400 SLG and 1.922 OPS. Yes, spring training stats can be misleading but Bryant is so far ahead of any other Cub that it is more than noticeable. He is now in the direct comparison with Mike Trout rookie season.
So if the Cubs stick to their plan to stash Bryant in Iowa for no reason except to save money down the road, and the Cubs miss the playoffs by one, two, five, ten or X games because Bryant was not on the roster at the beginning, there could be a peasant revolt at Clark and Addison.
Because, fans know that if Bryant struggles on the opening day roster, the Cubs could send him back to Iowa to regain his form. The probability is that Bryant will not struggle when he hits the majors which means the Cubs management is in a bind. If they are lying about winning this season (in order to sell tickets and merchandise to pay for all the real estate projects) with the real projection championship run in two, three or four years from now, then holding back Bryant makes some sense (but not a lot). If management truly believes that this is the year for winning the NL Central, then it should field the best team possible - - - which includes starting Bryant at third base on Opening Night.
The Cubs painted themselves in a corner. They hyped the team and young prospects as champions, but are trying to hold back potentially their best player from the team.
UPDATE: Bryant was not in Sunday's line up due to minor "shoulder soreness." The team says he will be okay. But this is one of the reasons to keep Bryant off the opening day roster, a minor injury. The second is to keep him down to work on his fielding fundamentals.
The weekend radio sports talk shows were fairly livid about the prospect of Bryant not making the major league team from Day One. A few suggested the Cubs could get an extra year by sitting him down for the equivalent of 9 games instead of the projected 30+. If management has its way, then the team may lose 2 games with Bryant not on the roster. And if the team is supposed to "contend" for the division crown, two games is a lot.
First, it was owner Tom Ricketts who cheerleaded his thoughts to proclaim at the Cub convention that the 2015 squad was going to win the NL Central. Second, new Theo Epstein and his management crew seconded that sentiment, which put fans into an over-optimistic fever. Third, Joe Maddon came out of the box saying the same thing: the Cubs will win the division. Fourth, many players started repeating this hype.
All is well and good if there was a chance in hell for such instant success. But there are more believers than realists.
But since the team talked itself into promising a divisional championship, and a play off birth this year, Ricketts and management need to do whatever it takes to make that happen. They have obligated themselves to do whatever is reasonable and necessary to compete and win every contest this season as the Cardinals and Pirates will field strong teams.
So when #1 prospect comes to spring training, the media is told Kris Bryant will not make it to the opening day roster, even though the team traded away the caretaker 3B Luis Valbuena in the off-season. No, Bryant will have to stay in Iowa for business reasons, so to withhold the path to early free agency five years down the road. The fans don't want "business" reasons to interfere with "winning the division" assurances. Ricketts is a millionaire, the team is worth more than a billion dollars, pay Bryant when the time comes but play him now. There is no reason to candy coat a winning culture with a cheapskate excuse.
To complicate things is that Bryant is putting shock and awe in the stands. So far, Bryant's production has been Ruthian: 20 AB, 9, H, .450 BA, 6 HR, 9 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K, .522 OBP, 1.400 SLG and 1.922 OPS. Yes, spring training stats can be misleading but Bryant is so far ahead of any other Cub that it is more than noticeable. He is now in the direct comparison with Mike Trout rookie season.
So if the Cubs stick to their plan to stash Bryant in Iowa for no reason except to save money down the road, and the Cubs miss the playoffs by one, two, five, ten or X games because Bryant was not on the roster at the beginning, there could be a peasant revolt at Clark and Addison.
Because, fans know that if Bryant struggles on the opening day roster, the Cubs could send him back to Iowa to regain his form. The probability is that Bryant will not struggle when he hits the majors which means the Cubs management is in a bind. If they are lying about winning this season (in order to sell tickets and merchandise to pay for all the real estate projects) with the real projection championship run in two, three or four years from now, then holding back Bryant makes some sense (but not a lot). If management truly believes that this is the year for winning the NL Central, then it should field the best team possible - - - which includes starting Bryant at third base on Opening Night.
The Cubs painted themselves in a corner. They hyped the team and young prospects as champions, but are trying to hold back potentially their best player from the team.
UPDATE: Bryant was not in Sunday's line up due to minor "shoulder soreness." The team says he will be okay. But this is one of the reasons to keep Bryant off the opening day roster, a minor injury. The second is to keep him down to work on his fielding fundamentals.
The weekend radio sports talk shows were fairly livid about the prospect of Bryant not making the major league team from Day One. A few suggested the Cubs could get an extra year by sitting him down for the equivalent of 9 games instead of the projected 30+. If management has its way, then the team may lose 2 games with Bryant not on the roster. And if the team is supposed to "contend" for the division crown, two games is a lot.
February 5, 2015
TO CONTEND OR NOT TO CONTEND
To contend, or not to contend, that is the question.
If the Cubs really believe they are going to contend for a division title and a deep post-season run, then is the current roster a viable blueprint for success.
By all measures, no.
Left field platoon is bad. A center field placeholder is bad. A right fielder rookie who swings the bejesus out of himself with each pitch may struggle with major league off-speed stuff.
Third base is still underwhelming until Kris Bryant arrives; but he is no "sure thing." Remember, Mike Olt was a sure thing for the Rangers.
Javy Baez needs to learn second base, cut down on his strikeouts and be a consistent player.
The team believes that it has upgraded its catching with Montero and Ross, leaving the trade value of Welington Castillo falling toward spring training.
There is no guarantee that Arrieta and Hendricks will build upon their surprising 2014.
Ownership and management have publicly stated that this team is ready to contend now. But that is the same marketing line Ricketts gave the public when he first bought the team. "We are only one or two players away."
The Cubs are still one, two, three, four, eight, ten players away.
One cannot plug in minor league stats on a line up card as future major league performance. In fact, most players lose a quarter to half of production value. Some, like Olt, lose almost 2/3 of batting average. There are so many factors, including mental pressure and stress, that major league players face which cause hot prospects to cool.
That is why some teams, like the Tigers, traded away their top prospects for known veterans. As a result, the Tigers have been in contention for many seasons. But the Cubs do not want to work that way. The management gurus have fallen in love with their acquisitions. Cub fans with short memories will realize that the last general manager, Jim Hendry, also loved his prospects so much he would never trade them. Those prospects did not pan out.
So when the Cubs continue to say that the team will contend in 2015, it is another ring of false hope. For if it was true, and money was no object to obtain a priceless championship, the Cubs would have signed James Shields by now.
If the Cubs really believe they are going to contend for a division title and a deep post-season run, then is the current roster a viable blueprint for success.
By all measures, no.
Left field platoon is bad. A center field placeholder is bad. A right fielder rookie who swings the bejesus out of himself with each pitch may struggle with major league off-speed stuff.
Third base is still underwhelming until Kris Bryant arrives; but he is no "sure thing." Remember, Mike Olt was a sure thing for the Rangers.
Javy Baez needs to learn second base, cut down on his strikeouts and be a consistent player.
The team believes that it has upgraded its catching with Montero and Ross, leaving the trade value of Welington Castillo falling toward spring training.
There is no guarantee that Arrieta and Hendricks will build upon their surprising 2014.
Ownership and management have publicly stated that this team is ready to contend now. But that is the same marketing line Ricketts gave the public when he first bought the team. "We are only one or two players away."
The Cubs are still one, two, three, four, eight, ten players away.
One cannot plug in minor league stats on a line up card as future major league performance. In fact, most players lose a quarter to half of production value. Some, like Olt, lose almost 2/3 of batting average. There are so many factors, including mental pressure and stress, that major league players face which cause hot prospects to cool.
That is why some teams, like the Tigers, traded away their top prospects for known veterans. As a result, the Tigers have been in contention for many seasons. But the Cubs do not want to work that way. The management gurus have fallen in love with their acquisitions. Cub fans with short memories will realize that the last general manager, Jim Hendry, also loved his prospects so much he would never trade them. Those prospects did not pan out.
So when the Cubs continue to say that the team will contend in 2015, it is another ring of false hope. For if it was true, and money was no object to obtain a priceless championship, the Cubs would have signed James Shields by now.
January 29, 2015
CORPORATE SHILLING
Patrick Mooney reports on a notion tossed around by baseball agent Scott Boras.
Having seen the media circus and national attention the NFL gets for its Super Bowl Week, Boras wants MLB to adopt the same format: have a World Series Week at a rotating neutral site.
“Baseball is serving up great steaks and we’re serving it in a drive-thru window,” Boras said. “We’ve got to change that. We need a ‘World Series Week.’ We need the World Series in one city, so that all journalists, from all over the world, can plan a year in advance and come to one place, stay there and watch these two teams go at it for seven days in one spot.”
“We’re talking about the betterment of baseball,” Boras said. “If we continue to do this on a regional scale, we’re going to lose something that baseball deserves. And what it deserves is world attention. And to keep the product at that level, you’ve got to create a platform (so) the world can attend.
“Most corporations and most journalists and most everyone involved — because you don’t know where the World Series is going to be until a day or two in advance — they have not budgeted (for it). They have not funded it. There’s no plan for the attention required to go and focus (on it).
“There’s so much more we can do when we know where the World Series is at. We can have so many events. We can involve corporations. We can have national media, international media. (But not knowing) where the World Series is going to be is making it a regional event.”
But one needs to realize that Boras is talking from a bias. He would like to see MLB generate a ton more money for the league and teams so the money pool grows to pay his clients more money in free agency. As we have seen, professional sports franchises are hitting the ceiling on broadcast revenue channels. Actual fan attendance will probably go down as many teams continue to price the average family out of baseball as an entertainment option.
Adopting another sports "championship set up" can lead to disaster. When the PGA adopted NASCAR's end of season points qualifying system to pare down the field to a small championship chase, it continues to be a confusing disaster. It was so much easier to crown a golf champion based upon earnings rather than a made up point system.
The greatest obstacle to a World Series Week would be the possibility it would take away a national fan base of Cub loyalists the opportunity to see a World Series played at Wrigley would be anarchy at its highest level.
Having seen the media circus and national attention the NFL gets for its Super Bowl Week, Boras wants MLB to adopt the same format: have a World Series Week at a rotating neutral site.
“Baseball is serving up great steaks and we’re serving it in a drive-thru window,” Boras said. “We’ve got to change that. We need a ‘World Series Week.’ We need the World Series in one city, so that all journalists, from all over the world, can plan a year in advance and come to one place, stay there and watch these two teams go at it for seven days in one spot.”
“We’re talking about the betterment of baseball,” Boras said. “If we continue to do this on a regional scale, we’re going to lose something that baseball deserves. And what it deserves is world attention. And to keep the product at that level, you’ve got to create a platform (so) the world can attend.
“Most corporations and most journalists and most everyone involved — because you don’t know where the World Series is going to be until a day or two in advance — they have not budgeted (for it). They have not funded it. There’s no plan for the attention required to go and focus (on it).
“There’s so much more we can do when we know where the World Series is at. We can have so many events. We can involve corporations. We can have national media, international media. (But not knowing) where the World Series is going to be is making it a regional event.”
But one needs to realize that Boras is talking from a bias. He would like to see MLB generate a ton more money for the league and teams so the money pool grows to pay his clients more money in free agency. As we have seen, professional sports franchises are hitting the ceiling on broadcast revenue channels. Actual fan attendance will probably go down as many teams continue to price the average family out of baseball as an entertainment option.
Adopting another sports "championship set up" can lead to disaster. When the PGA adopted NASCAR's end of season points qualifying system to pare down the field to a small championship chase, it continues to be a confusing disaster. It was so much easier to crown a golf champion based upon earnings rather than a made up point system.
The greatest obstacle to a World Series Week would be the possibility it would take away a national fan base of Cub loyalists the opportunity to see a World Series played at Wrigley would be anarchy at its highest level.
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