Part of the MLB Trade Rumors live chat from December 29:
Cubs (Comment)
2:01
Seems they just gave away Darvish. Also are Cubs in rebuild now.
Steve Adams (Response)
2:03
They
pretty much did. They're a worse team now with Davies than with Darvish
and Caratini, and no one else they acquired will help them before 2023.
This team won the division and went to the playoffs -- and despite the
fact that no one else in the NL Central is trying, the Cubs are content
to just deliberately get worse. I'd be furious if I were a Cubs fan.
"I'd be furious if I were a Cubs fan."
The Cubs are not in a rebuild. They are in a tear down. Epstein left early because he did not want the terrible job to trade away or cut his "friends" (players he signed). One commentator said of the Darvish deal, he did not realize that Jed Hoyer was still working for the Padres.
It does send an awful message to Cub Land.
It was reported that the Cubs lost $200 million in 2020. However, if you look closely, that is an exaggeration. And most of the losses were self-inflicted by ownership.
The Cubs biggest problem was its television deal. Or lack of one. The Marquee Network was a first year failure. Comcast did not pay the Cubs network until October. The national TV revenue was probably cut to a third. The Cubs current radio rights deal is very small when it burned itself by leaving WGN in a bumbling fashion. The Cubs probably had total broadcast revenue of $25 million.
But the Cubs payroll of $214 million was prorated down to $71 million. Plus, the Cubs saved on not funding any minor league affiliates. Plus, early in the year, the Cubs laid off most of its scouting and development staff. In reality, the "baseball operations" may have lost $50 million in 2020.
But the Ricketts biblical horror has to do with the fact no fans came to games. They claim that 67 percent of their revenue comes from fans attending games. Again, there is no way to know if that is true. But the argument is mixing apples and oranges as a great portion of Ricketts family revenue comes from non-baseball operations. Wrigley Field is a separate revenue entity. Ricketts lost all extra concert revenues. The bars and restaurants in Gallagher Way had no thirsty fans to spend big money pre and post games. There were several tenants in Ricketts buildings that went out of business, including Joe Maddon's restaurant, meant that rental revenues were seriously down. The hotel was closed for the entire year, so no revenue from that property. The other ancillary businesses, such as the parking lot revenue, also evaporated. But part of the problem of Ricketts financial cries is that they overbuilt the neighborhood, relied on public support at inflated prices, and bombed at creating their own cash cow network. If Ricketts lost $200 million, it is fair to guess that most of it is from bad ancillary business operations.
As it stands today, the Cubs projected 2021 payroll is $122 million. If the Cubs trade of Darvish is any indication, the pending free agents of Bryant (owed $18.6 M), Rizzo ($16.5 M) and Baez ($11 M) are also trade targets (but at much lesser value than Darvish). You might as well add Hendricks ($14 M) to the fire sale bargain bin. If you trade those players, Ricketts lops off another $60.1 million in payroll. NOW, YOU CAN BOAST you are at $62 million, small market level which means you may be able to break even on the baseball side in 2021.
It is obvious that Ricketts and the front office do not care about the fans. The Cubs WON the division this year. The Reds and Brewers already signaled that they were giving up on 2021. The Pirates are already in the early stages of a complete rebuild. The Cardinals lost veterans and seem to be willing to stay pat this off-season. The NL Central is going to be a weak and crappy division that the Cubs could win again if the team stayed as is.
To say that Davies, Mills, Alzolay and Rea are just as good as Darvish, Lester, Chatwood and Quintana is an insult. The Cubs currently only have TWO outfielders listed on their 40 man roster. It speaks to the fact that the 2021 roster will be filled in with cheap, journeymen players at the end of their careers. It stinks like the teams Epstein pulled together during his rebuild (the ones he wanted losses from to get high, no risk first round draft picks).
The one elephant in the room that the Ricketts cannot see is that the great Cub fandom is not going to pay premium prices to watch a crappy, tear down AAA team play at Wrigley Field. Fans do not have to - - - they have their World Series Championship and those memories. The Cubs lost their "lovable loser" badge in favor of dynasty championship franchise. The latter did not materialize even though the Cubs did make the playoffs. The bitter taste is that the young core that has aged out underperformed (sat on their laurels) with only one World Series appearance.
This tear down will be brutal and further be financially destructive to ownership who still thinks owning the "Cubs brand" is like printing money. The pandemic may not be under control until July, 2021 when the vaccines will be readily available to the general public. The middle class that lost their businesses due to lock down closures, bankruptcies and lack of employment opportunities is not going to be season ticket holders or even cable subscribers as the season starts.
No one is going to shed a "tear" for ownership during the tear down because the Ricketts are not very well liked in Chicago. The family politics and relationship with Sinclair still irks some fans. People will not pay premium dollars for an inferior product when there is a young and exciting baseball team on the South Side of town.
