THE LOST ART OF THE STEAL

Baseball has become a station to station game.

It is rare to find an aggressive team using speed as a weapon.

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton is single-handedly bringing back one of the most exciting feats in Major League Baseball, the stolen base. 

On Monday night, Hamilton stole four bases against the Minnesota Twins giving him 40 for the season. The second-year outfielder is now on pace to steal 86 bases, which would make him the first player to steal at least 80 bases in a single season since Rickey Henderson (93) and Vince Coleman (81) both did it in 1988.

But what is really amazing is that 86 stolen bases may actually be a low bar for Hamilton. He has stolen more than 100 in the minor leagues. He's getting better at stealing bases as the season goes on, and he is still not very good at the most important aspect of base thievery: getting on base.

 On base percentage (OBP) is one of those sabermetrics that new wave GMs like on their roster. But without a corresponding recognition for the stolen base to move runners into scoring position, it still takes a walk or base hit to move them around the base paths. And considering the average team hits .250 or so, that is only a one in four chance to advance a runner from first to second.

Scouts will tell you the one thing teams cannot teach players is speed. You either have it or you do not. Speed on the base paths makes the opposing pitcher think about runners. Any distraction to a pitcher's concentration is a plus for the batting team. Small advantages can create big innings.

So why has the stolen base been downplayed by teams? Teams are looking for more rounded players. Normally a speed merchant is usually a good field, no hit narrow skill set player. Teams are looking for five tool players who can hit for average, power and drive in runs. In some ways, the Earl Weaver three run HR strategy is still in vogue, even when hitters are getting dominated by pitchers this year.

Manufacturing runs through steals, hit and run plays, taking an extra base on an outfield hit are all fading from the team's fundamental playbooks. Teams don't teach base running fundamentals. Look at how many stupid running plays you see in an average game. Players should never run themselves into an easy tag out. But it happens all the time. And players have no idea how to slide into a base, or to avoid a tag.

A base stealer is a valuable commodity. But no one seems to really care to exploit one of the game's rules, except Hamilton and the Reds.

A SECOND LIGHTNING ROD

If Major League Baseball had a big enough headache with Alex Rodriguez's return to the Yankees, the Josh Hamilton saga gets even more down the rabbit hole.

Hamilton has had his personal demons that have been documented in his minor league transgressions. During the spring, there was an alleged relapse. MLB wanted to suspend Hamilton under its substance abuse policy, but Hamilton and the union objected to any punishment, citing that Hamilton would have been a first timer under the major league CBA.

Hamilton avoided suspension after an arbitrator sided with him over Major League Baseball. His Angel teammates are waiting for his return, but during the home opener, Hamilton had no locker.

Angels owner Arte Moreno is upset with Hamilton. Moreno cited a provision in Hamilton's Angels contract that gave the club special remedies against any relapse. Since those type of contract provisions are not allowed under the CBA, the players union is quite upset with the Angel's owner.

Local reports indicate that  it’s a really ugly situation on a number of different levels that’s being made worse and worse by Moreno every time he opens his mouth. The entire Angels organization is handling this as poorly as possible in terms of public relations, managing the clubhouse, and - most importantly - treatment of people. It is clear that the Angels probably want to void Hamilton's deal, or the very least, not allow him to play for the Angels. This is the corner that the Yankees were pinned in all of last year with A-Rod.  But Rodriguez demanded his comeback and the team honoring his contract, which has a $6 million payment the next time A-Rod hits a HR. The Yankees will loathe writing that check.

But since teams cannot put in their own "morals" clauses into player contracts, the Angels are stuck with an underperforming, highly paid, broken down outfielder who has zero trade value.

DOWN IN THE DUMPSTER

Ryan Dempster has turned down at least three offers so far this off season.A two year deal with the Brewers for unknown money;2/$25 million from Red Sox and 2/$26 million from Royals.
Dempster wants a three year guaranteed deal.
He is 35, so this is his "last" deal of his career. He wants to cashout high for personal reasons.

But he is 35 and teams don't want to flush starter money downthe toilet.
In 2012, Dempster went 5-5, 2.24 ERA for the Cubs;but then after the trade to Texas, went 7-3, 5.09 ERA.It may have been a harsh adjustment to the AL, or it couldbe age catching up. The latter is what has some GMs worried.
He made $14 million last season, so he expects a raise fora combined 12-8, 3.38 ERA season.
But in his 15 seasons, he is a career 124-124, 4.33 ERA pitcher(with 87 saves).
As the winter meetings ended, most scribes were surprised by the lack of
major signings or major trades. Teams have gotten conservative on
their spending on big-name free agents.

For example, the Rangers decided not to make Josh Hamilton a
$100 million player. So his market was severely limited, as the Yankees
are cutting payroll to get under the luxury tax (and talking about trading
players like Granderson in order to do it) and the Red Sox are taking a
more short term view of players (with the signing of Victorino for 3 years).
That leaves Hamilton with one known suitor, the Mariners,  a bad team which
does not want to spend money just for publicity. Seattle may find it easier
to hold on to its pitching talent and trade prospects for a David DeJesus
type outfielder than do a long term deal with Hamilton.   But in the end,
the Mariners signed Jason Bay, who was released by the Mets.

So there is a waiting game in progress. Dempster may find more interest
after Greinke signs, but maybe not in a three year deal.