TINKERING FOR OFFENSE

One of the reasons teams now go less on starting rotations to more workload on bullpens is the disabled list. Yahoo Sports:

One of the changes brought forth by the 2016 Collective Bargaining Agreement was the reduction of the minimum disabled list stay from 15 days to ten days. At the time this seemed like a win-win. If they only faced being out ten days rather than 15, players would be under less pressure to play through an injury. Likewise, teams would be less likely to play shorthanded while injuries were assessed.

Teams began to use the DL as a means of cycling pitchers on and off the roster, allowing them to bring in fresh arms with greater frequency. The result: a significant increase in the amount of players used, particularly relief pitchers. Bullpenning strategies that have developed over the past couple of years have been greatly aided by a shorter DL stay. Such strategies, in turn, have contributed to a reduction in offense.

The Associated Press reports Major League Baseball has proposed going back to a 15-day disabled list and increasing the time optioned players usually must spend in the minor leagues, a person familiar with the negotiations tells The Associated Press, moves aimed at reducing the use of relief pitchers and reviving offense.

This bargained for operational rule does get more players on active major league rosters (with prorate MLB pay and benefits) so the union must like the 10 day DL. But perhaps the owners have found that adding players to payrolls (with benefits count toward the luxury cap) for the sole purpose of extending the 25 man roster to a turn style 30 man team is not worth the cost.  

MLB does want offense. The home run derby days during the Steroid Era helped keep baseball from having serious financial issues. If the game is deemed "boring" for lack of scoring, then casual fans will swipe their streaming device to find some other form of entertainment.

THE SHIFT TOWARD OFFENSE

More and more sports leagues are trying to increase "offense" and "scoring" in order to lock in casual viewers into fans.  There is almost a video game expectation that sports leaders want to market toward the public whom are immersed in their Fortnite and other battle royale games.

MLB has been whining about its game for a long time. First it was too much pitching. "Women love the long ball" campaign helped fuel the specter of the steroid era and juiced baseballs. Second, it was pace of play. Games were getting too long, people could not pay attention. Third, it was "engaging" the fans during games by pushing MLB stat and fantasy apps on their phones (ironically, causing fans in the stands to pay less attention to the actual game.)

The current bane of the MLB is the over-gospel use of advanced stats to "improve" the game. The current foil is the defensive shift. The shift is ruining the game, so they say. It is taking away hitting, run scoring - - - offense.

There is nothing against the rules about where you can place fielders on any given play, except for the pitcher, who has be in contact with the rubber 60 feet 6 inches away from the plate, and the catcher who has to sit in the catcher's box behind the plate. Otherwise, a team could place the seven other fielders in the infield - - - as close to the plate as possible (in bunting situations).

Advanced statistics provide data that shows tendencies of hitters. But even general experience will tell you that certain hitters are "pull" hitters and others "slap" or opposite field hitters. Pitchers have been taught to pitch against those tendencies. But adding another fielder, usually in the short outfield, takes away base hits, or so is the theory.

Yahoo Sports notes that the overall analysis of the shift is unclear.

The usage of shifts has gone from a rarity to begin the decade, to almost routine in 2018.
In 2010, Fangraph’s data on the frequency of defensive shifting shows that the Tampa Bay Rays under manager Joe Maddon employed the shift against a league-leading 261 batters.

In 2018, Maddon’s Cubs actually employed the lowest number of shifts to opposing batters with 631. But that low number is still nearly 150 percent higher than the league high just eight years ago.
In fact, only five teams, the Cubs, Angels, Padres, Rangers and Cardinals, shifted for less than 1,000 batters in 2018. The Chicago White Sox set the pace, shifting for 2,150 batters. Overall, teams shifted 17 percent of the time during the past regular season, which is nearly one in every five batters.

It has undeniably become a big part of the strategy across MLB. But has it really impacted the game in a negative way?

The success rate varies, and like all aspects of baseball relies on a degree of luck. Fangraphics digested the types of shifts being used, and the accompanying success rates. The five teams that shifted most frequently (infield and outfield) in 2018 did so an average of 11.9 times per game, with opposing batters averaging 3.3 hits against per games. That’s a .277 batting average. The five teams that shifted the least averaged five shifts per games. Opposing batters averaged 1.5 hits, or a .300 average.

Does that mean shifting more is better? Does that tell us that shifting is even having a notable impact? Not necessarily is the correct answer to both, yet there’s a crowd that’s convinced it’s unfairly dragging down offense in MLB.

There are some variables those numbers don’t account for. It doesn’t tell us the number of times a shifted defender saved a hit, or how often a hit went through his vacated position. But the overriding numbers tell the real story. Shifting does more to get people talking than it does to drain offense from the game.

The best way to counter a shift is to hit the ball where they are not. To stop the shift, a batter needs to be able to place the ball in the vacated area. And that usually means bunting the ball for a base hit. But that is viewed as a cowardly or unmanly way to get a hit. But it is not. It is part of the game. But players and agents focus more on the glamor stats: like HRs and RBIs than whether you got a measly bunt single.

It would be nice to hear the view of the late Tony Gywnn on the shift controversy. He probably would have told you that a batter has to make the adjustments. If you looked at his hitting chart, you could see that he sprayed the ball to all parts of the ball park. He was not a pure pull hitter, or an opposite field slap hitter. Just as others were taught to hit the ball "up the middle" to get solid contact, Gwynn was a pure hitter capable of adjusting his swing to the pitch, circumstance and the elements. But that type of hitting dedication is rare. It would seem scapegoating the shift instead of telling players to adjust is the easy way out to jump start some more offense.

There are old schoolers who just go by the mantra "hit em where they ain't." Some hitting coaches are now focused in on "launch angles" and contact velocity as the statistical means to get past the shift, because harder ground balls get through the shift faster, and no one can catch a HR ball except a fan in the stands.

Baseball should do nothing to affect the strategy evolutions in the game. Let the shift ride out its fad until the next great Big Data thing happens.

THE EARLY LINE

By most expectations, the Cubs are off to a bad start. Going 2-2 against the AAA Dead Fish is not what people thought of Cubs after spring training.

But the same problems from last season's disappointment are cropping up again.

After 5 games, the Cubs are batting .204. The team has struck out 58 times in 229 plate appearances. That is more than a quarter of at bats. The Cubs have not scored in 17 innings.

People realize that the Cubs offense is falling back in the trap of "home run or bust" approach to the plate. As noted in the last few years, the Cubs have bashers not contact hitters. Many clubs have a balanced lineup with .300 hitters and RBI guys. The 2018 Astros have 4 of their 9 hitters batting over .300. In 2017, the Astros had 6 players (with 2 utility guys) hitting at or over .300. In 2017, the Cubs had only one player (reserve catcher Rene Rivera) hit over .300.

Just as bad is the starting pitching. Traditionally, a team looked to its rotation to eat up innings (because starters were the best pitchers on your staff). Teams now expect starters to get to 200 IP (which is well below a generation ago where 250 IP was the norm). Even so, teams have to cover at least 1476 innings per season. If starters cover 1000 IP, that means the bullpen must cover 476 IP. In an 8 man bullpen, that means about 60 IP per reliever (which equates to almost 60 appearances per bullpen arm). That represents a lot of wear and tear on bullpen arms which now have to cover a third of each contest.

The Cubs starters have only thrown 25.2 IP in the first five games, or only 49.2 percent of games. The starters should be covering 67 percent.

It may be a small sample size, but it is still evidence of issues that need to be resolved by Maddon and the coaching staff. The Cubs needed to get off to a fast start to not give the Brewers or Cardinals any confidence to contend in the NL Central. The Cubs should have feasted on Marlins and Reds pitching.

THE LOST ART OF THE STEAL

Baseball has become a station to station game.

It is rare to find an aggressive team using speed as a weapon.

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton is single-handedly bringing back one of the most exciting feats in Major League Baseball, the stolen base. 

On Monday night, Hamilton stole four bases against the Minnesota Twins giving him 40 for the season. The second-year outfielder is now on pace to steal 86 bases, which would make him the first player to steal at least 80 bases in a single season since Rickey Henderson (93) and Vince Coleman (81) both did it in 1988.

But what is really amazing is that 86 stolen bases may actually be a low bar for Hamilton. He has stolen more than 100 in the minor leagues. He's getting better at stealing bases as the season goes on, and he is still not very good at the most important aspect of base thievery: getting on base.

 On base percentage (OBP) is one of those sabermetrics that new wave GMs like on their roster. But without a corresponding recognition for the stolen base to move runners into scoring position, it still takes a walk or base hit to move them around the base paths. And considering the average team hits .250 or so, that is only a one in four chance to advance a runner from first to second.

Scouts will tell you the one thing teams cannot teach players is speed. You either have it or you do not. Speed on the base paths makes the opposing pitcher think about runners. Any distraction to a pitcher's concentration is a plus for the batting team. Small advantages can create big innings.

So why has the stolen base been downplayed by teams? Teams are looking for more rounded players. Normally a speed merchant is usually a good field, no hit narrow skill set player. Teams are looking for five tool players who can hit for average, power and drive in runs. In some ways, the Earl Weaver three run HR strategy is still in vogue, even when hitters are getting dominated by pitchers this year.

Manufacturing runs through steals, hit and run plays, taking an extra base on an outfield hit are all fading from the team's fundamental playbooks. Teams don't teach base running fundamentals. Look at how many stupid running plays you see in an average game. Players should never run themselves into an easy tag out. But it happens all the time. And players have no idea how to slide into a base, or to avoid a tag.

A base stealer is a valuable commodity. But no one seems to really care to exploit one of the game's rules, except Hamilton and the Reds.

A NIGHT OF SOLER POWER

When Jorge Soler hit his first two home runs against Cincinnati, one thing was readily apparent: Soler was no longer over-torquing his back swing.  He is big and strong enough to make a normal short stride swing to clear the fences.

This is in stark contrast to last season's call up where Soler (as well as Javy Baez, and then Starlin Castro falling into the habit) of overswinging to generate 16 inch softball hitter power.

Soler has made an adjustment, something hitting coach John Mallee tried with Baez.

Mallee, 45, begins his fifth season as a major league hitting coach, his first with the Cubs. He previously served as a big league hitting coach with the Marlins (2010-11) and Astros (2013-14). Overall, Mallee has 19 seasons of experience in pro baseball. Prior to moving to the big leagues, he spent eight-plus seasons as the Marlins minor league hitting instructor. A Chicago native, Mallee also served as a minor league hitting coach within the Brewers and Expos organizations starting in 1996. He spent two seasons as an infielder in the Phillies system from 1991-92.

In spring, Mallee was trying to get Baez to adjust his swing, especially during an at-bat. He wanted Baez to shorten his swing, "to allow him to stay in the hitting zone longer," as well as closing the huge holes in a long, loopy swing. Baez did make those adjustments in batting practice, but admitted that during games he would go back to his old ways. His old ways got him a surprising demotion to Iowa.

And maybe that demotion was a wake up call to the young players to listen to their coaches.

Joe Maddon has a very laid back approach to dealing with his players. He lets them prepare for games in their own ways and routines. He will only speak to them when he needs to speak to them. Maddon is more a funny uncle motivator than a hands-on teacher. He is trying to keep his team loose and relaxed even though the season started with a continuation of bad fundamentals and lack of plate discipline. 

Confidence is something that has to be turned on inside a person's head. Success is the fuel for self-confidence. Being confident at the plate means a batter will get more pitches and then better pitches to hit.

If Mallee has converted Soler into a more standard hitting posture and mechanics, that bodes well for the team because Soler needs to be a confident and consistent presence in the middle of the order.

TINKERING WITH THE BASICS

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports wrote:

Major League Baseball is considering altering the textbook definition of the strike zone for the first time in nearly two decades, fearful that the proliferation of the low strike has sapped too much offense from the game, league sources told Yahoo Sports.

Concern around baseball about the strike zone filtered down to the MLB’s Playing Rules Committee, which must formally adopt a rules change before it’s implemented. The committee will pay close attention to the size of the strike zone in 2015 with an eye on change as early as 2016 after studies showed it has expanded significantly since 2009, coinciding with a precipitous dip in run scoring. Of particular concern, sources said, is the low strike, a scourge not only because it has stretched beyond the zone’s boundaries but is considered a significantly more difficult pitch to hit.

Hardball Times study showed Runs per game fell to 4.07 in 2014, the lowest mark since 1981 and the 13th fewest since World War II. The reason for the runs per game drop is alleged to be the low strike zone.

Since 2009, the average size of the called strike zone has jumped from 435 square inches to 475 square inches, according to the article. The results: Pitchers are throwing more in the lower part of the zone, and hitters are swinging at an increased rate, knowing the tough-to-drive pitches will be called strikes.

However, the elephant in the room that no one sees is that the "dramatic" drop off of offense since 2009 is the reduction of PED use in baseball. A major reason for the increased offensive statistics was the use of steroids and HGH. When light hitting second basemen suddenly become home run hitters the era's offensive numbers are out of whack with traditional reality.

Now, since youth baseball, we were taught the strike zone was from the uniform letters (chest) to the knees. It was canon of the sport, just like the distance between the base paths.

However, baseball may be creating a problem it does not have.

The problem, league sources said, stems from technological leaps that caused unintended consequences. In 1996, when the league last changed the strike zone to extend it from the top of the knees to the bottom, beneath the hollow of the kneecap, it did so to encourage umpires to call knee-level strikes. The lower end of the zone, in practice, was about three-quarters of the way down the thigh, so the idea was that by adjusting the eye levels of umpires to look lower, the result would be a more traditional strike zone.

Then along came Questec, the computerized pitch-tracking system, followed by Zone Evaluation, the current version tied in to MLB’s PITCHf/x system. With a tremendous degree of accuracy – especially in recent years – the systems tracked textbook balls and strikes, and the home-plate umpires’ performances were graded on a nightly basis. Over time, not only did umpires’ strike zones move down to the knees, they went to the hollow and even a smidge below.

Prior to these changes, hitters were given a healthy sweet zone of the belt to the letters strike zone. Pitchers had a smaller window of opportunity to get batters out. So the development of "trick" pitches such as fork ball which dives from the smaller strike zone to below the knees was needed to equalize pitching vs. batting. But if you watch enough baseball, you can easily tell that there are many hitters who are "low ball" crushers of the ball, like long hitters in golf. In fact, most teams have detailed hitting zone charts for each player (you can see examples in your baseball video games). 

Baseball is a profession where players need to adapt their skills. Pitchers had to adapt to a squeezed strike zone that favored hitters. Now that the umpires are calling the low strike, hitters should need to adapt back to the traditional plate coverage from youth baseball drills. But since baseball worries that without big offensive ("chicks love the long ball"), it will lose the next generation of fans to high offensive sports like football and basketball.  It is an unjustified fear. Baseball's traditions are what keeps a loyal fan base engaged in the game.