NEW ARM OLD STORY

Steve Stone once said that all bullpen arms are failed starters.

The Cubs under Theo have failed to draft and develop one starter of their own.

The streak continues even though the team called up one fading prospect.

The Cubs have optioned infielder Jeimer Candelario to Triple-A Iowa and added Pierce Johnson to their bullpen.

Johnson — the first pitcher the Theo Epstein regime drafted for the Cubs — will be available to make his big-league debut against the Cincinnati Reds.

Johnson — the 43rd overall pick out of Missouri State University in 2012 and the compensation for losing free agent Aramis Ramirez — struggled with command issues and health problems as a starter and pivoted toward a bullpen role last summer.

Johnson went 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA in 12 appearances for Iowa this season, putting up 21 strikeouts against 11 walks and 15 hits through 14 innings.

But when Johnson was drafted, the front office painted the picture that he was the prototype pitcher the Cubs would stock pile in the minors. It never happened. Even though more than 50% of all Cub draft selections have been pitchers, none have made the majors as a starter. The inability to develop a home grown starter is the black hole in the Cubs organization. Every team is desperate for pitching, especially quality inning-eating starters. The premium spot is an ace starter. The inability to develop starters has led the Cubs to the market to overspend on free agents and pitchers on the decline in their careers.

But as we have seen this season, a starting rotation can crumble quickly. A five-man Opening Day rotation now looks for a 5th starter, and two replacements for Arrieta and Lackey when their deals expire at the end of the year. Some predict that Arrieta and Lackey may not last the entire season. It then gets to the proposition of Peter stealing to pay Paul; trading the depth of position prospects to either rent or take on a bad contract at the deadline for an experienced major league starter.

WHAT PRICE FOR THE NEXT PUJOLS?

There have been several reports that the Marlins are not shopping star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, but the team "is willing to listen" to any offers.

Baseball News Source website wrote an article on that subject, and defined potential suitors for Stanton down to five teams, including the Cubs.

So why is Stanton so important?  Some consider him the next Albert Pujols. He is only 23 years old, and under a team's control for the next four seasons.

And his production has been outstanding. Last season, in 501 PA he hit .290, 37 HR, 86 RBI, 6 SB, .361 OBP, .604 SLG, and 5.4 WAR.  For his short three seasons, he has a career .270 BA, 93 HR, 232 RBI, 16 SB, .350 OBP, .553 SLG and 9.0 WAR. You can plug him into right field and he will produce offense. He is a below average right fielder.

So any team should be willing to cut off their left arm to acquire a young All-Star talent.

So the author of the BNS article thought the Cubs could put together a reasonable package to acquire Stanton.

First, with the long term deal for Starlin Castro, top infield prospect Javier Baez could be tempting trade bait. Baez, age 20, absolutely mashed in the Minors during 2012.
Between Single-A and Advanced-A, the right-handed hitter posted a combined .294/.346/.543 line with 16 HR, 46 RBI, 50 R, and 24 SB in jut 321 PA’s.

Second, the Cubs would need to send a top prospect outfielder in the deal. It could be either Jorge Soler or Albert Almora. Since Soler is closer to the big leagues, one would think Almora would be the choice.  The 18 year-old Almora, who is from Florida, was the Cubs sixth overall pick from the 2012 draft, and immediately impressed the franchise with a .321/.331/.464 line in 145 PA’s in the low minors.

Third, since the Cubs have found their long term solution at first base in Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs will have no place for power hitting 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach.  The 20 year-old Vogelbach enjoyed one of the most impressive Minor League seasons out there. Between Rookie-Ball and Single-A (Short-Season), the left-handed hitter sported a .322/.410/.641 line with 17 HR, 62 RBI, and 39 R. With his OPS at 1.051, you have to be excited about this guy’s future as a hitter.

So the author concludes that a package that contains Baez, Almora and Vogelbach could land a current start in Stanton. I think it would cost even more than that; the Marlins would also try to pry away at least two top pitching prospects to sweeten the deal. The Cubs list Trey McNutt as their #8 prospect and Pierce Johnson #10.

For any franchise, this would be a once in a lifetime type of trade.  However, Stanton may be so valuable that in the end the Marlins will keep him until his 2017 free agency year.

TRADE REVIEW

Some people in LA rue the day the Dodgers made the $250 million trade with the Red Sox, as the team continues to under perform.

How are the ex-Cub players doing in their pennant chases?

Maholm as a Cub in 21 games, went 9-6, 3.74 ERA with 1.238 WHIP. In Atlanta, in 8 games, he is 3-4, 4.28 ERA and 1.324 WHIP.  He is below his Cub par with the Braves so far.

Reed Johnson as a Cub in 76 games hit 3 HR, 16 RBI, .302 BA. In Atlanta, in 26 games, he has hit 0 HR, 4 RBI and .313 BA. He was brought in as a bench player, so he is probably on par so far with the Braves.

Dempster as a Cub in 16 games went 5-5, 2.25 ERA and 1.038 WHIP. In Texas, in 8 gqames, he is 6-1, 4.11 ERA and 1.291 WHIP.  Dempster, with more offensive support, is doing exactly what the Rangers want him to do: post wins.

Soto as a Cub in 52 games hit 6 HR, 14 RBI, .199 BA. In Texas, in 33 games, he is hitting 3 HR, 17 RBI and .213 BA. He is slightly improved over his Cub stats as a Ranger.

The Braves and the Rangers are content with the trades that they made because the ex-Cubs are contributing to their pennant runs.

The one person coming in via trade on the Cubs now is Anthony Recker, from Oakland. In 13 games as an A's, he hit only .129 with 0 HR and 0 RBI. In 4 games as a Cub, he is hitting .222 with 1 HR and 2 RBI. He is hardly the answer at catcher.

OH ME, OH MY

The Cubs were on the cusp of being the Big Loser in this trade season by not pulling the trigger on any deals. Well, there is an old adage in baseball circles: sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make.


After messing up the Dempster-Atlanta deal, the Cubs traded left handed starter Paul Maholm and reserve outfielder Reed Johnson and CASH considerations to the Braves for two minor league players, pitchers Jaye Chapman and Arodys Vizcaino. It appears to be an excellent deal for the Braves, who are in a pennant chase with the pitching rich Nationals. The Braves needed to bolster their rotation, and Maholm is a steady, veteran performer.

Maholm has a 3.74 ERA with 6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 49.9% ground ball rate in 120 1/3 innings for the Cubs this year. The 30-year-old has never thrown particularly hard; his average fastball checks in at 87.6 mph this year, according to FanGraphs. He earns a $4.75MM salary in 2012 and his contract includes a $6.5MM club option for 2013.  So the Braves control Maholm next season plus the Cubs are paying part of his contract going forward.

Johnson, 35, has a .307/.361/.452 batting line in 180 plate appearances this year. The right-handed hitter has played all three outfield positions for the Cubs and owns a career .313/.370/.469 line against left-handed pitching. He's signed to a one-year, $1.15MM contract and will hit free agency after the season.  Johnson is one of those deadline pick up that bolsters a team's bench and gives a manager more options down the September stretch, both pitch hitting and defensive replacement.

So what did the Cubs get back in return? Nothing close to what Dempster trade would have gotten them, quality prospect Randall Delgado.  Instead, the Cubs obtained A PITCHER ON THE DISABLED LIST with a major injury.


Vizcaino, who entered the 2012 season ranked by Baseball America as the 40th-best prospect in MLB, had Tommy John surgery this spring. The 21-year-old posted a 3.06 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 97 innings for three Braves affiliates as he made his way through Atlanta's minor league system in 2011. The right-hander reached the Major Leagues last year, posting a 4.67 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 17 relief appearances.
Clearly, the Braves fast tracked Vizcaino through the system to the majors where he had so-so results. A minor league phenom with major surgery is not that comforting or helpful in the near future. The success rate for pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery is good (some pitchers believe their arm is stronger than before), but some do not ever get back to their pre-surgery fastball speeds. Many have to adapt new, more arm friendly pitches, in order to stay on a career course. In normal rehab, it takes 18 months to 2 years until the player is ready to go full bore. So, the trade of Maholm's 18 months left on his contract is for nothing at this point.

Chapman, a 25-year-old right-hander, has a 3.52 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 in 53 2/3 innings of relief for Atlanta's Triple-A team so far in 2012. He has a career 3.95 ERA and 1.391 WHIP. He has been basically a reliever his entire minor league career. But in 101 games finished, he only has 28 saves. At 25, he appears to be a middle reliever candidate.

Was the Maholm deal a "make up trade" with the Braves for Dempster pulling a reversal no to the teams' earlier trade? The Cubs did not receive very much in return for Maholm and Johnson.

The Cubs also traded Geovany Soto. Soto should have been traded a year ago when he still had rookie of the year type potential on the trade market. But the Cubs kept Soto as the starter. Nagging injuries and bad swing mechanics doomed his value this season.


The Cubs traded Soto to the Rangers for Jacob Brigham, a AA minor league pitcher.
Soto, 29, has a .195/.278/.345 batting line in 194 plate appearances this year. The 2008 NL Rookie of the Year earns $4.3MM in 2012 and is on track to go to arbitration for the third time this offseason. However, the Cubs were going to non-tender him to save money which would have granted Soto free agency a year early. Clearly, the Rangers got Soto as catching insurance in case starter Mike Napoli or backup Yorvit Torrealba go down with injuries.

It was cheap insurance, too. Brigham, a 24-year-old right-hander, had been pitching at Double-A Frisco. He has a 4.28 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 124 innings over the course of 21 starts this year. Brigham is a fringe arm, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America. He has a below average career as a starter the past six years, with a .391 winning percentage and 4.40 ERA and 1.395 WHIP. At 24 and 6 seasons in his career but not out of AA ball yet means Brigham can't really be called a viable major league prospect at this point. After 6 seasons of development, a player should have already made it to AAA (and with some ML service time). But with Soto's weak bat, this was really a salary dump by the Cubs (possibly to off-set some of the money being sent to Atlanta in the Maholm deal).


Overall, the Cubs traded three players on the current major league roster for one prospect with major arm surgery and a borderline journeyman relief pitcher. 


The only thing the moves really does is to open up roster spaces. Maholm's spot in the rotation most likely will be filled by Volstad since Randy Wells went on the AAA DL is out for the season (thus ending his Cub career). Johnson's spot on the bench may be filled by a middle infielder like Cardenas. Promoting Brett Jackson to sit on the bench would not be a good move, unless Soriano or DeJesus is dealt. Wellington Castillo will replace Soto and platoon with Clevenger in an extended battle of who will become the starting 2013 catcher.