Well, a Giancarlo Stanton deal got done. And the Cubs were no where in the neighborhood.
The Yankees made a fantastic deal to acquire the power hitting MVP.
Yahoo Sports summarizes the deal: The Marlins will receive veteran second baseman Starlin Castro, Yankees No. 9 minor league prospect, right-hander Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers in exchange for Stanton and approximately $30 million. The New York Post reports the $30 million will only be paid out in full if Stanton elects not to
opt out after the 2020 season. The Yankees will absorb the remaining
$265 million left on his contract.
With the price break the Yankees are getting in the deal, it is likely the Yankees will be able to avoid going over the luxury
tax threshold in 2018. After offloading Castro’s $7.57 million salary
and taking into account the $25 million Stanton is due next season, the
club is looking at a payroll increase of just under $17.5 million. The $30 million the Yankees receive from Miami will be
paid out in $3 million installments to help offset the luxury tax restrictions each year.
Pitcher Guzman is expected to break into the big leagues as soon as 2019.
The 21-year-old pitched exclusively out of the rotation for Low-A Staten
Island last season with a 5-3 record in 13 starts and a
2.30 ERA, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.9 SO/9 through 66 2/3 innings.
Devers, 18, was also included in the deal. The
shortstop/DH made his first foray into pro ball in 2017, slashing a
combined .245/.336/.342 with 13 extra-base hits and 16 stolen bases in
216 PA for the Yankees’ rookie-level affiliates in the Gulf Coast League
and Dominican Summer League.
The Marlins were desperate to unload Stanton's contract and the Yankees got a bargain fire-sale price for the one of the best hitters in baseball.
As I said previously, it would not have taken much to get Stanton on the Cubs roster. And Stanton would have solved a major problem in the Cubs everyday lineup: consistent hitting for average and power.
The Marlins only received a starting second baseman, the Yankees fifth best pitching prospect, and a low level minor leaguer. Miami also lost a great deal of production: Castro hit .300, 16 HR, 63 RBI with a 2.0 WAR as compared to Stanton's .281 BA, 59 HR, 132 RBI and 7.6 WAR.
Look at this way: would you trade Javy Baez, No. 4 prospect SP Alex Lange and a low Class A minor leaguer for Stanton?
Of course you would. That is the basic cost the Marlins were looking to take to get rid of Stanton. So I am surprised that the Cubs were not a factor in the Stanton trade discussions. Yankees GM Cashman made the deal of the year.
Showing posts with label Stanton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stanton. Show all posts
December 11, 2017
December 8, 2017
JUST DO IT!
The news broke early this morning that should have the Cubs front office changing everything they planned for this off-season.
Yahoo Sports quotes a Miami-based host for SiriusXM who has been all over the Giancarlo Stanton story, reported that the reigning NL MVP will not approve a trade to either the Giants or the Cardinals. Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins so he has all the leverage on where he will go. He is under contract control through the 2020 season.
Furthermore, the report says Stanton "would" accept a trade to four teams and they’re the four teams that were in the ALCS and NLCS: the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Astros.
Clearly, Stanton wants to win NOW.
What the Cubs need to do is make a strong pitch for Stanton NOW.
Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton I made on August 16, 2017:
1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.
And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal, now probably more than that figure), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.
For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.
In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.
The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:
1. Baez or Russell. A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).
2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF). Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.
3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.
4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.
5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.
If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.
The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.
As a footnote to the argument, the Cubs would have to either extend the opt out clause with Stanton or pay less in major league talent for a potential 2-year contract (maybe three players and a prospect). The Cubs spent $13 million/season on Chatwood to be the 4th starter. So the team is still under budget (but with several key roles to fill including the closer position).
But this is a one-in-a-generation type move. The three years Stanton has to his opt out is the prime years for the current Cubs core. It also fits into the time frame for the Cubs to attempt to launch their own Cubs channel. Stanton is a superstar who solves a major problem in the current lineup: a consistent hitter that other teams fear.
Yahoo Sports quotes a Miami-based host for SiriusXM who has been all over the Giancarlo Stanton story, reported that the reigning NL MVP will not approve a trade to either the Giants or the Cardinals. Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins so he has all the leverage on where he will go. He is under contract control through the 2020 season.
Furthermore, the report says Stanton "would" accept a trade to four teams and they’re the four teams that were in the ALCS and NLCS: the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Astros.
Clearly, Stanton wants to win NOW.
What the Cubs need to do is make a strong pitch for Stanton NOW.
Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton I made on August 16, 2017:
1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.
And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal, now probably more than that figure), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.
For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.
In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.
The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:
1. Baez or Russell. A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).
2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF). Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.
3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.
4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.
5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.
If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.
The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.
As a footnote to the argument, the Cubs would have to either extend the opt out clause with Stanton or pay less in major league talent for a potential 2-year contract (maybe three players and a prospect). The Cubs spent $13 million/season on Chatwood to be the 4th starter. So the team is still under budget (but with several key roles to fill including the closer position).
But this is a one-in-a-generation type move. The three years Stanton has to his opt out is the prime years for the current Cubs core. It also fits into the time frame for the Cubs to attempt to launch their own Cubs channel. Stanton is a superstar who solves a major problem in the current lineup: a consistent hitter that other teams fear.
August 16, 2017
THE BOLDEST MOVE
Jeffrey Loria is the worst MLB baseball owner. He is a crass, arrogant and flippant businessman who even sued his Marlin season ticket holders. But he was clever enough to bamboozle a brothel stadium from the taxpayers of Miami. Now, he is in the midst of trying to sell his team for $1.2 billion to an investment group led by former Yankee Derek Jeter (who wants to put no money into the club but have an equity position and total control over the franchise.)
The Marlins weak attendance and fan base mirrors its weak performance. Despite the millions in incentives and baseball revenue sharing, the Marlins are expected to lose $60 million this season.
When a business wants to sell at top dollar, it needs to massage its balance sheet to make a buyer think he is getting a great deal. The only way a small market club can do that is to cut payroll, the team's largest cost center.
News filtered today that the Marlins star player, Giancarlo Stanton, cleared waivers. After the trade deadline, teams put their players through waivers to clear them for possible August trades prior to the September 1 playoff roster deadline. (The other use of the waiver system is to try to get rid of an expensive contract.)
The Marlins are committed to six players $95 million in 2018 ($25 million is to Stanton).
Stanton, 27, hit his 44th HR of the season. He has achieved 5.2 WAR so far this year. At a salary of $14.5 million, his performance has outpaced his contract by $14.1 million. Next year, his contract jumps to $25 million. He is signed for 10 years at $295 million, but he can opt out after the 2020 season at age 30 (after being paid $77 million for three years).
Stanton is a legitimate superstar. He already has a 32.7 WAR. In 7.5 years, he has 252 HR, 634 RBI, .359 OBP, .268 BA.
Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton:
1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.
And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.
For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.
In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.
The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:
1. Baez or Russell. A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).
2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF). Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.
3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.
4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.
5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.
If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.
The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.
If any team trades for Stanton, it would not be a blockbuster move - - - but a nuclear one.
The Marlins weak attendance and fan base mirrors its weak performance. Despite the millions in incentives and baseball revenue sharing, the Marlins are expected to lose $60 million this season.
When a business wants to sell at top dollar, it needs to massage its balance sheet to make a buyer think he is getting a great deal. The only way a small market club can do that is to cut payroll, the team's largest cost center.
News filtered today that the Marlins star player, Giancarlo Stanton, cleared waivers. After the trade deadline, teams put their players through waivers to clear them for possible August trades prior to the September 1 playoff roster deadline. (The other use of the waiver system is to try to get rid of an expensive contract.)
The Marlins are committed to six players $95 million in 2018 ($25 million is to Stanton).
Stanton, 27, hit his 44th HR of the season. He has achieved 5.2 WAR so far this year. At a salary of $14.5 million, his performance has outpaced his contract by $14.1 million. Next year, his contract jumps to $25 million. He is signed for 10 years at $295 million, but he can opt out after the 2020 season at age 30 (after being paid $77 million for three years).
Stanton is a legitimate superstar. He already has a 32.7 WAR. In 7.5 years, he has 252 HR, 634 RBI, .359 OBP, .268 BA.
Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton:
1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.
And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.
For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.
In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.
The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:
1. Baez or Russell. A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).
2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF). Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.
3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.
4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.
5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.
If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.
The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.
If any team trades for Stanton, it would not be a blockbuster move - - - but a nuclear one.
March 2, 2015
PROTECTING THE STAR
The helmet looks like a hybrid batting and football face guard helmet. It will be interesting to see if Stanton has any vision issues with the metal guard in picking up launch points of various pitchers.
With the league trying to mandate that pitchers were protective skull caps (to lessen the impact of hot shots up the middle), the evolution of baseball protective gear has been slow. But with so much money invested long term in player contracts, teams now have the incentive to protect their circus animals to avoid dead money issues.
November 14, 2014
STANTON AND DELIVER
Giancarlo Stanton could be argued as the best major league baseball player in the NL (Clayton Kershaw fans excepted). Stanton, 25, has amassed a 21.2 career WAR in just 5 seasons, an average of 4.24 WAR/season. In his first year of arbitration, he was awarded $6.5 million. He has two arb years left before FA in 2017.
He is expected to break the bank either way. Several reports state that the Marlins are hot to get Stanton signed for a long, long term deal. ESPN reports it could be a 12 year $300 million deal, while CBS Sports thinks the number could be 13 years $320 million. This is record shattering territory.
Stanton commands these high numbers because of his consistent performance. Season WAR totals: 2.8, 4.1, 5.5, 2.3, and 6.5. His career average for a 162 game season: 39 HR, 102 RBI, .271 BA.
If one uses $5 million/WAR valuation, then Stanton being paid $6.5 million in 2014 was a steal. His performance value would have been $32.5 million. Even if Stanton's arbitration award doubles, he is still only getting paid half his value.
So it may be in the best interests of the player (and his agent) to tap the current controlled value into a long term deal. Teams only do long term deals if it is advantageous to it. The Marlins are a terrible dysfunctional organization with a cheap and arrogant owner. The team burned Miami taxpayers on a new stadium deal; had a fire sale of their veteran talent; and even fired Ozzie Guillen early in his contract term (some of that was Ozzie being Ozzie). Stanton is the one and only shining grace for the franchise.
If one uses the qualifying offer amount of $15.3 million as the floor to negotiations for a top player like Stanton, even a short term extension through his arbitration plus one year of FA would cost the Marlins $46 million. It would be a pay increase for the player, but still very undervalued even at average career WAR ($63.6 million). So the team has to pay a premium to keep Stanton for any free agent year. And it seems to top tier number is Kershaw's $25 million per season number.
Stanton could sign a three year extension for $75 million and hit the free agent market at age 28 for an A-Rod shattering next deal. It comes down to reward of a higher pay day against the risk of premature injury prior to free agency.
In 2012, the Marlins had the 7th highest payroll at $118 million. Then the fire sale, and dropped to the bottom at $36 million in 2013 and $46 million in 2014. Even under the short extension play above, the Marlins would be paying Stanton more than 50% of their payroll on one player. Throughout sports leagues, putting so much capital in one player is dangerous and at times, counterproductive (look at the Bulls and injured Derek Rose who eats of 36% of the team's cap space).
But keeping Stanton may be the Marlins only way to save the franchise from total ruin.
I would expect that any long term deal would be stair-stepped in value (putting more on the back end) hoping that the Marlins could catch fire and be playoff competitive (which equates to more gross revenue). A 10 year extension could be (in millions): $15, 20, 25, 25, 30, 30, 35, 35, 40, 40. That makes the deal worth $295 million. Stanton would become a rich free agent at age 35, and depending on his condition, he could get a Victor Martinez final deal of 4 year/$68 million.
In any event, there will be no charitable tag days ahead for Stanton.
But based upon his statistical value, Stanton has a limited market in trade or in free agency. Very few teams are willing to spend $200 million on one player. Teams would rather keep their top prospects than trade them for expensive veterans. Even the Dodgers and Angels have overspent in the last few seasons, and they now have payroll digestive problems.
A player is worth what the market will bear. Stanton is going to stretch that market to its outer limits.
He is expected to break the bank either way. Several reports state that the Marlins are hot to get Stanton signed for a long, long term deal. ESPN reports it could be a 12 year $300 million deal, while CBS Sports thinks the number could be 13 years $320 million. This is record shattering territory.
Stanton commands these high numbers because of his consistent performance. Season WAR totals: 2.8, 4.1, 5.5, 2.3, and 6.5. His career average for a 162 game season: 39 HR, 102 RBI, .271 BA.
If one uses $5 million/WAR valuation, then Stanton being paid $6.5 million in 2014 was a steal. His performance value would have been $32.5 million. Even if Stanton's arbitration award doubles, he is still only getting paid half his value.
So it may be in the best interests of the player (and his agent) to tap the current controlled value into a long term deal. Teams only do long term deals if it is advantageous to it. The Marlins are a terrible dysfunctional organization with a cheap and arrogant owner. The team burned Miami taxpayers on a new stadium deal; had a fire sale of their veteran talent; and even fired Ozzie Guillen early in his contract term (some of that was Ozzie being Ozzie). Stanton is the one and only shining grace for the franchise.
If one uses the qualifying offer amount of $15.3 million as the floor to negotiations for a top player like Stanton, even a short term extension through his arbitration plus one year of FA would cost the Marlins $46 million. It would be a pay increase for the player, but still very undervalued even at average career WAR ($63.6 million). So the team has to pay a premium to keep Stanton for any free agent year. And it seems to top tier number is Kershaw's $25 million per season number.
Stanton could sign a three year extension for $75 million and hit the free agent market at age 28 for an A-Rod shattering next deal. It comes down to reward of a higher pay day against the risk of premature injury prior to free agency.
In 2012, the Marlins had the 7th highest payroll at $118 million. Then the fire sale, and dropped to the bottom at $36 million in 2013 and $46 million in 2014. Even under the short extension play above, the Marlins would be paying Stanton more than 50% of their payroll on one player. Throughout sports leagues, putting so much capital in one player is dangerous and at times, counterproductive (look at the Bulls and injured Derek Rose who eats of 36% of the team's cap space).
But keeping Stanton may be the Marlins only way to save the franchise from total ruin.
I would expect that any long term deal would be stair-stepped in value (putting more on the back end) hoping that the Marlins could catch fire and be playoff competitive (which equates to more gross revenue). A 10 year extension could be (in millions): $15, 20, 25, 25, 30, 30, 35, 35, 40, 40. That makes the deal worth $295 million. Stanton would become a rich free agent at age 35, and depending on his condition, he could get a Victor Martinez final deal of 4 year/$68 million.
In any event, there will be no charitable tag days ahead for Stanton.
But based upon his statistical value, Stanton has a limited market in trade or in free agency. Very few teams are willing to spend $200 million on one player. Teams would rather keep their top prospects than trade them for expensive veterans. Even the Dodgers and Angels have overspent in the last few seasons, and they now have payroll digestive problems.
A player is worth what the market will bear. Stanton is going to stretch that market to its outer limits.
September 13, 2014
THE FACE OF THE FRANCHISE
Giancarlo Stanton is the face of the Marlins franchise. He is the team's best player by a wide margin.
Stanton, 24, was leading the league in home runs (37), RBI (105), slugging percentage (.555) and OPS (.950). In 2014, he had a 5.8 WAR. In his five years in the majors, his career WAR is 18.4.
He is always a trade rumor candidate. He has shown consistent power over the past five seasons. In any trade, Miami would get a blockbuster package in return.
But the Marlins have done fire sales in the past. And the fan base stays away in droves. Any team needs at least one player who performs well, stays out of trouble, and is fan friendly. Stanton is the face of the Marlins; an All-Star player with Hall of Fame potential.
Thursday night, Stanton was hit in the face with a fastball. Stanton took an 88-mph fast in the mouth off Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Mike Friers in the 5th inning. Stanton was taken off the field in an ambulance and is reported to have suffered multiple facial fractures, lacerations, and dental damage. He is likely out for the remainder of the season.
This is a player's worst nightmare, getting hit in the head. Cubs fans will remember that rookie prospect Adam Greenberg's first major league at-bat ended with him being hit by a pitch. That one pitch ended Greenberg's baseball career.
No matter what happens next, this injury will affect Stanton. One's body will program itself to defend against danger. His basic survival instinct may kick in for a split second to protect himself from inside pitches. Batting and contact with a baseball itself is a matter of split second coordination. In addition, there may be lingering effects from the facial fractures or possible eyesight issues to concussion concerns.
For baseball superstars, the high return in compensation is also tempered by high risk. One play can end a career. One injury can end a career.
Stanton, 24, was leading the league in home runs (37), RBI (105), slugging percentage (.555) and OPS (.950). In 2014, he had a 5.8 WAR. In his five years in the majors, his career WAR is 18.4.
He is always a trade rumor candidate. He has shown consistent power over the past five seasons. In any trade, Miami would get a blockbuster package in return.
But the Marlins have done fire sales in the past. And the fan base stays away in droves. Any team needs at least one player who performs well, stays out of trouble, and is fan friendly. Stanton is the face of the Marlins; an All-Star player with Hall of Fame potential.
Thursday night, Stanton was hit in the face with a fastball. Stanton took an 88-mph fast in the mouth off Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Mike Friers in the 5th inning. Stanton was taken off the field in an ambulance and is reported to have suffered multiple facial fractures, lacerations, and dental damage. He is likely out for the remainder of the season.
This is a player's worst nightmare, getting hit in the head. Cubs fans will remember that rookie prospect Adam Greenberg's first major league at-bat ended with him being hit by a pitch. That one pitch ended Greenberg's baseball career.
No matter what happens next, this injury will affect Stanton. One's body will program itself to defend against danger. His basic survival instinct may kick in for a split second to protect himself from inside pitches. Batting and contact with a baseball itself is a matter of split second coordination. In addition, there may be lingering effects from the facial fractures or possible eyesight issues to concussion concerns.
For baseball superstars, the high return in compensation is also tempered by high risk. One play can end a career. One injury can end a career.
November 14, 2013
HOT AIR STOVE
Last night, the winter hot stove rumor mill started to pump out a lot of heated gas.
It was reported that the rumor was the Cubs would trade Starlin Castro and Junior Lake to the Marlins for OF Giancarlo Stanton. Only in a Cubs dream. When the season ended, the Marlins were adamant that they were not going to trade Stanton.
Stanton, 24, is the Marlin franchise. Last season in 116 games, he hit 24 HR, 62 RBI, .249 BA and .365 OBP and 2.4 WAR. In his four year career, he has hit 117 HR, 294 RBI, .265 BA, .354 OBP, 14.8 WAR.
In comparison, Castro's 2013 WAR was negative 0.6 and Lake's 0.8. Castro's career WAR is only 7.4 over four seasons.
To make a trade make sense, the Cubs would have to add another starter with a WAR more than 2.2 per season (a commodity the Cubs do not have) plus additional prospects.
But this is silly trade speculation on the part of media, fans, and agents who want to stir the pot at the winter meetings so their clients names are in the newspapers as being seen as something valuable.
There is no question that Castro and/or Lake could be traded this off season. Really, no one on the Cub roster is untouchable. However, it would be a public relations disaster to trade away a "core" player for more prospects when management just told its season ticket holders that their plan is just about ready to come together with the core prospects.
It was reported that the rumor was the Cubs would trade Starlin Castro and Junior Lake to the Marlins for OF Giancarlo Stanton. Only in a Cubs dream. When the season ended, the Marlins were adamant that they were not going to trade Stanton.
Stanton, 24, is the Marlin franchise. Last season in 116 games, he hit 24 HR, 62 RBI, .249 BA and .365 OBP and 2.4 WAR. In his four year career, he has hit 117 HR, 294 RBI, .265 BA, .354 OBP, 14.8 WAR.
In comparison, Castro's 2013 WAR was negative 0.6 and Lake's 0.8. Castro's career WAR is only 7.4 over four seasons.
To make a trade make sense, the Cubs would have to add another starter with a WAR more than 2.2 per season (a commodity the Cubs do not have) plus additional prospects.
But this is silly trade speculation on the part of media, fans, and agents who want to stir the pot at the winter meetings so their clients names are in the newspapers as being seen as something valuable.
There is no question that Castro and/or Lake could be traded this off season. Really, no one on the Cub roster is untouchable. However, it would be a public relations disaster to trade away a "core" player for more prospects when management just told its season ticket holders that their plan is just about ready to come together with the core prospects.
December 31, 2012
WHAT PRICE FOR THE NEXT PUJOLS?
There have been several reports that the Marlins are not shopping star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, but the team "is willing to listen" to any offers.
Baseball News Source website wrote an article on that subject, and defined potential suitors for Stanton down to five teams, including the Cubs.
So why is Stanton so important? Some consider him the next Albert Pujols. He is only 23 years old, and under a team's control for the next four seasons.
And his production has been outstanding. Last season, in 501 PA he hit .290, 37 HR, 86 RBI, 6 SB, .361 OBP, .604 SLG, and 5.4 WAR. For his short three seasons, he has a career .270 BA, 93 HR, 232 RBI, 16 SB, .350 OBP, .553 SLG and 9.0 WAR. You can plug him into right field and he will produce offense. He is a below average right fielder.
So any team should be willing to cut off their left arm to acquire a young All-Star talent.
So the author of the BNS article thought the Cubs could put together a reasonable package to acquire Stanton.
First, with the long term deal for Starlin Castro, top infield prospect Javier Baez could be tempting trade bait. Baez, age 20, absolutely mashed in the Minors during 2012.
Between Single-A and Advanced-A, the right-handed hitter posted a combined .294/.346/.543 line with 16 HR, 46 RBI, 50 R, and 24 SB in jut 321 PA’s.
Second, the Cubs would need to send a top prospect outfielder in the deal. It could be either Jorge Soler or Albert Almora. Since Soler is closer to the big leagues, one would think Almora would be the choice. The 18 year-old Almora, who is from Florida, was the Cubs sixth overall pick from the 2012 draft, and immediately impressed the franchise with a .321/.331/.464 line in 145 PA’s in the low minors.
Third, since the Cubs have found their long term solution at first base in Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs will have no place for power hitting 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach. The 20 year-old Vogelbach enjoyed one of the most impressive Minor League seasons out there. Between Rookie-Ball and Single-A (Short-Season), the left-handed hitter sported a .322/.410/.641 line with 17 HR, 62 RBI, and 39 R. With his OPS at 1.051, you have to be excited about this guy’s future as a hitter.
So the author concludes that a package that contains Baez, Almora and Vogelbach could land a current start in Stanton. I think it would cost even more than that; the Marlins would also try to pry away at least two top pitching prospects to sweeten the deal. The Cubs list Trey McNutt as their #8 prospect and Pierce Johnson #10.
For any franchise, this would be a once in a lifetime type of trade. However, Stanton may be so valuable that in the end the Marlins will keep him until his 2017 free agency year.
Baseball News Source website wrote an article on that subject, and defined potential suitors for Stanton down to five teams, including the Cubs.
So why is Stanton so important? Some consider him the next Albert Pujols. He is only 23 years old, and under a team's control for the next four seasons.
And his production has been outstanding. Last season, in 501 PA he hit .290, 37 HR, 86 RBI, 6 SB, .361 OBP, .604 SLG, and 5.4 WAR. For his short three seasons, he has a career .270 BA, 93 HR, 232 RBI, 16 SB, .350 OBP, .553 SLG and 9.0 WAR. You can plug him into right field and he will produce offense. He is a below average right fielder.
So any team should be willing to cut off their left arm to acquire a young All-Star talent.
So the author of the BNS article thought the Cubs could put together a reasonable package to acquire Stanton.
First, with the long term deal for Starlin Castro, top infield prospect Javier Baez could be tempting trade bait. Baez, age 20, absolutely mashed in the Minors during 2012.
Between Single-A and Advanced-A, the right-handed hitter posted a combined .294/.346/.543 line with 16 HR, 46 RBI, 50 R, and 24 SB in jut 321 PA’s.
Second, the Cubs would need to send a top prospect outfielder in the deal. It could be either Jorge Soler or Albert Almora. Since Soler is closer to the big leagues, one would think Almora would be the choice. The 18 year-old Almora, who is from Florida, was the Cubs sixth overall pick from the 2012 draft, and immediately impressed the franchise with a .321/.331/.464 line in 145 PA’s in the low minors.
Third, since the Cubs have found their long term solution at first base in Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs will have no place for power hitting 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach. The 20 year-old Vogelbach enjoyed one of the most impressive Minor League seasons out there. Between Rookie-Ball and Single-A (Short-Season), the left-handed hitter sported a .322/.410/.641 line with 17 HR, 62 RBI, and 39 R. With his OPS at 1.051, you have to be excited about this guy’s future as a hitter.
So the author concludes that a package that contains Baez, Almora and Vogelbach could land a current start in Stanton. I think it would cost even more than that; the Marlins would also try to pry away at least two top pitching prospects to sweeten the deal. The Cubs list Trey McNutt as their #8 prospect and Pierce Johnson #10.
For any franchise, this would be a once in a lifetime type of trade. However, Stanton may be so valuable that in the end the Marlins will keep him until his 2017 free agency year.
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