THE METS BOUNTY

The Mets will again start the new year with one of the league's most impressive starting rotations. And an impossible task to try to keep this core of hard throwing starters on the team for the long term.

As the New York Daily News reported recently, GM Sandy Alderson has the task of trying to control the rotation for longer than their current projected arbitration years.

The idea of a contract extension is that a team offers guaranteed money through a players’ arbitration years in exchange for the first few years of the players’ free agency. Usually the player gets less money than he ideally would get on the open market, but more than he would in arbitration. They are assured that money whether he suffers a long-term injury or his level of play drops off. For a team built around pitching and these young arms in particular (and a team whose farm system is light on top pitching prospects) these decisions are going to be an increasingly important part of shaping the franchise’s future over the next few years.

Alderson said he would not rule out talking to a pitcher’s agent about an extension during the 2017 season, but indicated it was not something he was contemplating before the Mets get to Port St. Lucie.

“I am not going to say we would do or we are not going to do it,” Alderson said of looking to lock up one of their talented young arms long term during the season, “but heading into spring training, it’s not likely going to happen.”

Matt Harvey will be the first of the Mets’ young arms who will test the team’s future plans. He is in his second year of arbitration eligibility and under the Mets’ control for just two more seasons. This is really the last winter the Mets could expect any possible value in an extension. After an All-Star season in 2013, he missed 2014 after Tommy John surgery. He pitched 218 innings, a record for a pitcher in his first season back from the elbow surgery, going 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA in 2015. He struggled most of the 2016 season with command and was shut down in early July after surgery to address the circulation issues associated with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.

Jacob deGrom, who was given an extra year of arbitration through the Super-2 designation this winter, would be the ideal candidate for the Mets to discuss an extension with this winter.
DeGrom had a disappointing 2016, going 7-6 with a 3.04 ERA, after a Rookie of the Year season in 2014 and a stellar 14-8 (2.54 ERA) season in 2015. He had Tommy John early in his minor league career and was shut down early in 2016 to have surgery to move the ulnar nerve in his elbow.
Harvey said earlier this month that the surgery had relieved the issues of numbness in his fingers and he is seeing results as he works through his offseason throwing program. DeGrom was still waiting to begin his throwing program earlier this month when he spoke to reporters. Older than Harvey, deGrom will be 32 when he finally reaches free agency and could be more open to the idea of an extension.

Zack Wheeler is in his first year of arbitration eligibility and reaches free agency after the 2019 season, deGrom after 2020 and Stephen Matz and Noah Syndergaard are only under control through the 2021 season.

So the Mets have a wealth of starting pitchers for the next two seasons. However, the Mets are still running a tight team budget. As much as the talent of the franchise rests with starting pitching, the field position lacks key superstars. Re-signing Yoenis Cespedes was a mandatory cost to hold the fans' off-season attention. But with David Wright's continuing health issues, and no natural center fielder on the roster, the Mets do have glaring holes in their line up.

It is doubtful that the Mets will trade any of their starters to close the line up gaps with hitters. The Mets need to have depth at starter because its power arms are prone to injury.

PESSIMISTS

After the opening victory over the Nationals, the Cubs were  21-6. A 77.8 win percentage leads the majors. On pace for a record 126 wins. Even if the team goes .500 for the rest of the season, the Cubs will finish with 96 wins.

All is well on the North Side.

The stat of the night was the fact that the Cubs have won 33 of Kyle Hendricks' 50 games as a starter. That is a 66.0 winning percentage. That is incredibly good for a fifth starter. In his 50 Cub starts, Hendricks' record is 17-11, 3.45 ERA, 1.123 WHIP and 5.1 WAR. One would be hard pressed to find a better fifth starter.

But a certain segment of the fan base and media are pessimists. They worry about the Cubs pitching as compared to the young arms of the Mets. They may be uncomfortable with the soft stuff of Hendricks, but so long as he has confidence in his pitches, he can paint the corners with his two-seamer. They worry about John Lackey's age and rough couple of games for the Cubs. Lackey brings to the mound a mean streak of a junkyard dog. This compliments John Lester's apparent inner anger every time he pitches. This is in a stark contrast to Jake Arrieta's zen like machine performances.

So far the Cubs starting rotation has been solid.

But there is a probability that one or more of the starters will get hurt or go through a mid season slump (most nominate Hammel). The one major complaint against the front office is that Theo-Jed have not drafted and developed a starting pitcher (Hendrick is a carryover from the prior regime.) Even though the Cubs have used 47 percent of their draft choices on pitchers, it is the quality young hitters that have been the beacons to success.

There was a rebuild theory that you drafted the best bats early (since they are easier to project at the major league level) over pitching (because of potential arm issues) then buy starters in the open market when you are ready to compete. You get your fielders under cheap control while you pay a premium for known, quality starting pitching.

But everyone is looking for pitching since it can stop quality hitting. There is a shortage of quality guys. That is why the Mets home grown armada of starters is the envy of the league.

So far, the Cubs have weathered injuries to their platoon left fielder, starting catcher, and 5th outfielder. The pitching staff has not been stressed to date because the Cubs offense continues to set a ridiculous pace of a plus 96 run differential.

But the problem in last post-season was that the Cubs only had two trusted starters, Arrieta and Lester. Lackey was brought in to be that post season #3, but his age and a long day game summer season could put him into the bad Hammel camp. No one knows if Hendricks can handle the pressure of being a #3 post season pitcher (which could lead to being a game 7 starter). There is no one in Iowa (AAA) ready, willing or able to be a #3 starter in the majors. No one wants to the Cubs to part with their young stud talent (Baez, Almora, McKinney, Contreras) for starting pitching, but you never can tell when a championship window opens and closes. Ask the Nationals about that.

THREE STRIKES

The only way for Major League Baseball to get serious on banning illegal substances from the game is to enforce its existing rules to the fullest extent allowed under the current CBA. The Mets have learned that lesson very quickly last week. Whether the players will see this as a wake-up call, we still do not know. From the NY Post:

That’s three strikes for Jenrry Mejia, and he’s out.

The right-hander, who pitched for the Mets in five of the past six seasons, has become the first player in baseball history to receive a permanent suspension for using illegal performance-enhancing drugs. Major League Baseball announced Friday that Mejia, 26, committed a third offense under its drug program — all within the last year — this time testing positive for Boldenone, an anabolic steroid.
The suspension can last as little as two years, however, if Mejia succeeds on an application, as is his collectively bargained right, for reinstatement.

Hector Gomez, a Dominican sports journalist, reported late Friday that Mejia denied any wrongdoing.
“It’s not like they [MLB] say,” Mejia said, according to Gomez. “I’m sure I did not use anything.”
Mejia, who had been pitching in winter ball in his native Dominican Republic, added, “I will appeal. Win or lose, I have a lot of faith. I have to clear my name. … I will not stand idly by. I will take this case to the bitter end.”

It’s possible Mejia was referring to the reinstatement application down the road. He already had his chance to appeal before the verdict was announced.

Mejia got caught while still serving his second infraction, which drew him a 162-game suspension last July 28; he had 99 games left and was due to return to the Mets in late July. His first suspension, lasting 80 games, went into effect last April.

“We were deeply disappointed to hear that Jenrry has again violated Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program,” the Mets said in a statement. “We fully support MLB’s policy toward eliminating performance enhancing substances from the sport. As per the Joint Drug Program, we will have no further comment on this suspension.”

“I honestly can’t find the words that would correctly convey my disbelief,” said former Met Michael Cuddyer, who played briefly with Mejia last season before retiring in December.

As per the Joint Drug Program’s terms, Mejia can submit his application for reinstatement no earlier than one year following the imposition of his suspension — Feb. 12, 2017, in other words — and his case must be heard by the commissioner within 30 days of filing the request. The commissioner must then notify the player of his decision within 30 days of the hearing.

Even if the commissioner ruled in Mejia’s favor, the pitcher still could not become an active player until he completes a two-year banishment. If the commissioner ruled against Mejia — and you can expect MLB to be quite unsympathetic to such a plea — then Mejia could take his case to an independent arbitrator. Once again, if the arbitrator decided that Mejia could come back, the suspension still would last for two years. So Mejia can’t pitch in organized baseball until 2018 at the earliest.

HITTERS RULE REALIGNMENT

It was a game of musical chairs and Yoenis Cespedes was the last free agent outfielder standing.

He did not get the mega-deal that he was looking for in free agency. In fact, it really comes down to a one year deal with an insurance bonus in case of injury.

Cespedes re-signed with the Mets for 3 years/$75 million deal with a one year opt out clause. That means he will be playing in 2016 for another round of free agency. That should be good for the Mets.
If he gets hurt, he can keep the $50 million guarantee for the next two years.

It was a good and necessary deal for the Mets. The New York Times baseball writer remarked  that  re-signing of Cespedes should go a long way towards restoring fan trust in the organization. The club has taken a lot of flak in recent years for perceived penny pinching and a failure to make big, meaningful moves in the offseason. Much of that can be blamed upon the Bernie Madoff scandal and the fact that minority stakes can be redeemed like loan payments in the near future.

The Mets needed a power hitter to compliment their young starting pitching staff. Cespedes is the key in their line up. But some observe that Cespedes is targeted to play center field, which is not his strong suit.

Yahoo Sports wrote that based on past performance, Cespedes can be a disaster in center field. He has excellent arm strength but he has poor route running and quick recognition skills that a good CF needs to cover ground in both left center and right center. 


In a perfect world, Cespedes would DH for the Mets. And this may be why this off-season there has been more and more talk about bringing the DH to the National League. The Cubs would like to see the DH since Kyle Schwarber is a hitter without a position. He wants to catch but the organization does not believe he has the defensive skills to play behind the plate everyday. However, Schwarber disagrees. Schwarber is a pure hitter who is willing to play an uncomfortable left field in order to get in the line up. He may be best suited as a first basemen, but Rizzo has that position locked up. So the Cubs front office would love to have the DH option for Joe Maddon. 

But that is the last, clear difference between the American and National leagues. As an old school baseball fan, I enjoy the strategy and nuisances of having pitchers bat in the NL. And it is always fun to see good hitting pitchers (which the Cubs have actually been blessed with in the past decade) help their own cause. It is ironic that the best youth hitters are most likely the best hitters on their team gets lost as a prospect moves his way through academic and pro levels of development.

If the NL goes the route of the DH, then there really is no need to have separate leagues anymore. This would spread the discussion of major realignment of all the 30 teams. 

You can divide 30 teams evenly by 6 divisions of 5 teams each. The playoffs get easier with the 6 divisional winners making the playoffs and two "wild cards" for any division rounding out the competition. The best regular season records control home field advantage throughout the playoffs, including the World Series.

The only reasons to realign baseball is to cut down on travel expenses and increase regional rivalries, since it is possible that drawing in-park attendance may become a major factor as cable television ratings continue to decline.

For example, the Midwest division seems easy:

Twins, Brewers, Cubs, White Sox, Royals, Cardinals.

In fact, this division has "double" rivalries built in, such as the Cardinals-Royals and Cardinals-Cubs; Cubs-Cardinals and Cubs-White Sox, etc.

The Western division also seems easy:

Mariners, Giants, A's, Angels, Dodgers, Padres.

The South gets spread between all three time zones:

Diamondbacks, Rangers, Astros, Rockies, Marlins, Rays.

The Central would run North to South:

Blue Jays, Tigers, Indians, Pirates, Reds, Braves.

That leaves the East Coast teams:

Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Orioles, Phillies, Nationals.

LEARNING EXPERIENCE

There are measuring posts throughout everyone's life.

Milestones and millstones where one can take stock.

Tuesday night was one of those moments.

Just as the Chicago Bulls had to defeat their nemesis, the Pistons;
Just as the Blackhawks had to defeat their bitter rival, the Red Wings,
the Cubs have to learn to win in the post season when the pressure is at its peak.

“We haven’t played our best baseball and they’ve pitched really well,” Theo Epstein said to a throng of reporters after the 5-2 defeat.

Down 3-0 in a series is a death sentence. Only one team, the 2004 Red Sox have come back from that sinkhole.  Some people may think there is still hope, but when the skies opened up with rain in the last inning, it was a signal that the heavenly water would mask the tears of the fans in the stands.

Mental errors by the Cubs outnumbered the physical errors by 10 to 1.

Joe Maddon was out-managed by Terry Collins.

The Mets pitching has been far superior. They realized that throwing fastballs to the Cubs was a recipe for disaster. So it was an overload of secondary pitches, which the Cub hitters failed to adjust to in the first three games.

The Cubs pitching looks gassed from a long season. A piece meal bullpen has now started to crack. The Mets continued to put pressure on the base paths causing the Cubs defenders to make mistakes. The Mets manufactured runs while the Cubs were passively waiting to hit home runs.

One would have hoped that the Cub players would have gotten better as as series progressed, but the "cold" start continued through last night's game. Tonight, with Hammel on the mound with a shorter leash than Hendricks, it will be another "bullpen" game which shows how far behind the Cubs are from the Mets, who will throw another very good rookie starter, Steven Matz, in Game 4.

The Mets are poised to make deep runs for the next several years. They have been compared to the Atlanta Braves who had a stellar pitching staff of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. Starting pitching is the hardest asset to develop or find. That is why star starters are commanding $20 million per season.

The Cubs must now know that the axiom that good pitching defeats good hitting has merit. The Cubs need two or three more quality starters in order to compete with the Cardinals and Pirates. The free agent market has many quality pitchers, but the price tag may be too high to snare a Greinke, Price or Zimmerman.

The Cubs also have to learn that next season the expectations are going to be sky high. They also must realize that teams of destiny, like the Nationals the past few seasons, don't mean anything if you cannot perform under the pressure of the limelight.

The Cubs exceeded everyone's expectations this season, including the front office. But 2016 seems to be the year that the promise of hope is erased with the expectation of a championship or bust. The Cubs do not have the pitching in the minor leagues to fill in the huge holes in the rotation. The Cubs need more consistency from the #3 and 4 starters. Also, the bullpen will have to be rebuilt. The Cubs still need more consistent hitters in the lineup so as not to rely on home run or bust. The team cannot rely on the "core" of Rizzo, Bryant and Schwarber to create the offense. Fowler will be gone in free agency so the team has a major hole at lead off to fill.

It was good and surprising season for the Cubs. Bonus baseball was great.
2016 is the real turning point for the franchise.

TWO WAYS TO BUILD A CORE

The NLCS comes down to two teams that built their core two different ways.

The Mets have drafted and developed pitchers as a priority.

The Cubs have drafted and developed hitters as a priority.

The Mets used free agency and trades to acquire bats to compliment their young pitching staff.

The Cubs used free agency and trades to acquire arms to compliment their young hitters.

It now seems that both philosophies have merit.

If one looks at the Mets young core of pitchers, we find:

DeGrom 4.7 WAR, 14-8, 2.59 ERA, 0.970 WHIP
Syndergaard 2.1 WAR, 9-7, 3.24 ERA, 1.047 WHIP
Matz (only 6 GP) 1.2 WAR, 4-0, 2.27 ERA, 1.234 WHIP
Harvey 5.2 WAR, 13-8, 2.71 ERA, 1.019 WHIP

These four young starters combined for a collective 13.2 WAR and 30 wins of the team's 90 (33.3%).

If one looks at the Cubs young core of hitters, we find:
Bryant 5.9 WAR, .275 BA, 26 HR, 99 RBI
Russell 3.3 WAR, .242 BA, 13 HR, 54 RBI
Schwarber 1.7 WAR, .246 BA, 16 HR, 43 RBI
Rizzo 6.2 WAR, .278 BA, 31 HR, 101 RBI

These four young hitters combined for a collective 17.1 WAR and 302 RBI of the team's 657 (49.6%).

As you can tell, these eight players are the keys to the NLCS. One team will (for at least this season) validate their rebuild plan with a trip to the World Series.

METS HERO

Daniel Murphy displayed rare high level baseball IQ in the deciding playoff game against the Dodgers.

With a huge infield shift on, Murphy was on first base with one out. The batter walked, and Murphy started to jog to second, then turned on the gas as he got to the bag since no one was covering third base!

He stole third base from first on an out!

It is such a mindboggling play that rarely happens.

Murphy recognized the situation, and knew the rule that the ball was still live to rush to third base. The Dodgers were caught flat footed on a defensive play. One would think either the shortstop or the pitcher should have moved toward third base to stop Murphy from advancing to third.

But the runner's heads' up play  put him on third base which was the deciding play of the game. The next batter hit a deep sacrifice fly to right field so Murphy scored to tie the game.

Later, Murphy hit the game winning home run.

There is more pressure on players in the post season because there is more at stake, more viewers, and bigger plays because of the stage. Murphy met all those pressures and performed well above average, which gave his team the victory.

RECORD DEBUT

We knew the Mets were loaded with young starting pitching.

Well, the best of the bunch made his debut Sunday. In record fashion.

Steven Matz limited the Reds to two runs on five hits and three walks while striking out six in 7⅔ innings in his major league debut. 

Yet manager Terry Collins was more thrilled with the offense Matz provided. The southpaw drove in four runs, the most ever by a pitcher in a debut in major league history. It also was the most RBIs by a Met -- pitcher or position player -- in a major league debut in franchise history.

"I love hitting, so it's pretty cool to have that record," Matz said.

A good hitting pitcher is as rare as a perfect game.

While Matz stroked his way into the record books, more Cub fans begin to grumble at Joe Maddon's line up card where the pitcher is hitting eighth in critical situations. The losing streak does not help, and Maddon has been consistent with his explanation that batting a pitcher in the 8th spot gives Addison Russell better pitches therefore, better for his development. In essence, Maddon is sacrificing scoring opportunities to develop a young player. This shows that the Cubs were not planning to be a contender this season.

Starters BA for the Cubs:

Hammel .216
Wood     .120
Hendricks .074
Arrieta   .034
Lester .000

Maybe the Cubs should concentrate more on developing contact hitting pitchers.
  

HARVEY & PRO PITCHING

Matt Harvey is a good pitcher . . . . very good. Jason Hammel is a good pitcher . . . pretty good.

It was one of those classic pitcher duels on a cold Chicago evening.

It was also nice to get a fresh broadcast perspective on the Cubs. ESPN's crew did a good, balanced job on their coverage. For all the side nonsense and controversy, Curt Schilling does know about pitching. (Poor Doug Glanville, he was exiled to Siberia in CF for most of the game.)

The game and the commentary should be a documentary for young pitchers on how to become quality major league starters. Location, command and pitch efficiency were all on display last night.

As Schilling eluded, a top pitcher can control a game from the mound, but an ace pitcher can get himself out of jams even when he makes "mistakes" such as a breaking ball that backs up into the zone (in a few occasions, it backed up inside jamming the hitter into lining out.) It was a clinic on cold weather pitching, the grip, the strategy to attack pitchers and fielders in such conditions.

This is the hardest transition for pro pitchers. It is not about getting strikeouts, it is about getting outs. It is about how to set up a hitter to a) swing and miss; b) take a strike; c) or induce preferred contact such as a ground ball to start a double play. Most young pitchers who have dominant fastball rely too much on it to get the big leagues. However, the problem is that every major league hitter can gauge a fastball, adjust and crush it.

Both starters were excellent last night:

Harvey threw 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 9K, 2 BB. He threw 100 pitches, 70 for strikes (70%).

Hammel threw 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 BB. He threw 97 pitches, 68 for strikes (70.1%).

Cub manager Joe Maddon is becoming a risk taker. In the 9th after Anthony Rizzo got a single, Maddon replaced his best hitter with a pinch runner, Matt Sczcur. In a tie game that could go to extra innings, this seemed to be an odd move. Then Starlin Castro got a single, with Sczcur getting to third base. This put additional pressure on the Mets bullpen. An intentional walk, then a strike out to Jorge Soler, Mets closer Jeurys Familia walked Coghlan to give the Cubs the win.

It was the bullpen that cost the Mets the game. As discussed, the game of baseball is now constructed to rely more on a solid bullpen than on five solid starting pitchers. Teams are carrying 11 or 12 pitchers now just to bolster the bullpen which is now expected to take the game from the 7th inning to the end game after game. It is rare to get a box score where both starting pitchers throw past the 7th inning.

During the cable pregame, there was some discussion on how good and young the Mets pitching staff is - - - that it could contain five aces. The staff is jelling to comparisons of the great Atlanta Braves staffs of the 1990s. So there is a natural thought pattern that the Cubs and Mets would be ideal trade partners since the Cubs have a surplus of young hitters.

A few people believe that the Mets would be foolish to trade any of their young starters. Finding an ace pitcher is very hard. Finding more than one is rare. Having three or more on a staff is unheard of. One commentator believed that he would never trade a HOF caliber starter for a HOF caliber hitter.

The example would be trading Harvey for Kris Bryant.

Bryant is expected to play 155 games in the field, bat .275, hit 30 HR, 85 RBI.
Harvey is expected to start 33 games, have 16 wins, 2.37 ERA, 1.000 WHIP and 5.0 WAR.

Yes, Bryant will play in more games, but his production and impact  is the 4 times he is at the plate. Harvey directly impacts 20 percent of the Mets starts, and controls the ball for at least 25 batters a game.

It is often said that great pitching will temper great hitting. So who is more valuable?

A professional pitcher like Harvey may be more valuable as a central foundation piece for a franchise. Quality starts create stability in the pitching staff. Quality starts give teams the ability to win series. Winning series consistently means a winning record and playoff berth. A professional pitcher will share his knowledge of the game with his teammates, thus increasing the coaching efficiency of the team. (Greg Maddux was credited with the same mentoring in Atlanta and Chicago).

The Mets rebuilt their franchise through young starting pitching. The Cubs have rebuilt their franchise on young power hitters. It will be interesting to see which club has the better run, short and long term.

DIFFERENT APPROACH

The Mets have had a series of quality young starters come to the majors. In this homestand, the Mets latest young gun, Noah Syndergaard made his debut.

He threw 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 6 K and 4 BB. He threw 103 pitches, 56 for strikes (54.3%). The Mets lost the game to the Cubs, behind Jake Arrieta who went 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 10 K, and 2 BB. Arrieta threw 116 pitches, 70 for strikes (60.3%).

An infield hit by Kris Bryant, who flew down the first base line, kept an inning going with two outs. It seemed to rattle Syndergaard. He threw many more pitches because of that hustle play, so it ended his night early.

What was interesting to see is the contrasting styles of the two starters.

Syndergaard has a short arm power delivery which can get his fast ball up to 97 mph. His motion is a bit of a mechanical cheat to increase velocity since he is whipping his forearm and wrist during the motion to the plate. This adds velocity but it also adds torque to his elbow ligaments.

Young pitchers are fixated from youth baseball through the minors on two points: fastball velocity and strikeout totals. Those two stats gets pitchers noticed in high school, college, the draft and signing a pro contract. Young pitchers try to get the most velocity they can with their mechanics. Every person is built differently; each with his own body tolerances and elasticity. Chris Sale has mastered a buggy whip delivery which most other pitchers could never control. During the telecast, Syndergaard was compared to Wade Miller, a former pitcher with a short arm delivery.

Miller had a so-so career. He had shoulder and elbow problems which caused him several stints on the disabled list. And that should be the concern for the Mets, that Syndergaard's delivery could increase the risk of injury. During his pro start, one could tell that he began to fall off the side of the mound instead of pushing straight toward the plate. This slide adds another motion (or force plane) to an otherwise stressful delivery.

In contrast, Arrieta has a long straight arm motion delivery to the plate. It is a circular catapult-like motion that looks "easy" and flowing. Pitching coaches like this style of delivery because it puts less stress on shoulder and elbow. And that this motion is easily repeatable - - - getting a pitcher in an early game rhythm is important.

Arrieta averaged 4.83 pitches per out in his victory.
Syndergaard averaged 6.4375 pitches per out.

Rookie pitchers tend to try to overpower hitters because that is what has worked throughout their development. But pitching in the majors is more an art form than power play. Arrieta was much more efficient in getting outs, therefore he lasted longer in the game. And being efficient does not mean Arrieta could not gather strike out victims.

It is clear that Arrieta is a more polished pitcher than Syndergaard. However, if Syndergaard can keep off the disabled list he should be another fine addition to the young Mets rotation.

IMPACT PROSPECTS

SB Nation believes that there are three possible "impact" prospects for 2015.

An impact prospect is a rookie who bursts on the scene as an unbelievable All-Star caliber player like the Angels Mike Trout.

Kris Bryant is projected to be the best prospect in baseball.  In Double- and Triple-A, the 22-year-old obliterated the competition, bashing 43 homers in 138 games while batting .325. He probably strikes out too much, but the competition in Triple-A isn't going to teach him anything: he'll never feel compelled to adjust if he can put up Triple Crown numbers in spite of any issues.  PECOTA, which is often critical of prospects, sees Bryant batting .261/.351/.515 as a rookie which would be a pretty good debut.

The Mets have the best pitching prospect in Noah Syndergaard. But the Mets' rotation right now is set, with Bartolo Colon as fifth starter. Unless he is traded to a contender, or someone gets hurt and a spot opens, then Syndergaard could be the one filling it. The 21 year old starter managed to strike out nearly 10 batters per inning in Triple-A last season. He is expected to burst on the NY scene.

The White Sox have the makings of a great rotation thanks to Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Jeff Samardzija. If they were inclined, they could put 2014 first-round pick Carlos Rodon in their rotation as well -- it won't be out of spring training, but with only John Danks and Hector Noesi in his way, he just might get that push sooner than later. Rodon has only thrown 24 innings in the minors, but finished his first pro season at Triple-A. Rondon has incredible stuff (comparable to Sale's) and already ranks among the game's best pitching prospects in spite of his inexperience. He could end up being a midseason difference maker in that rotation, one that propels the White Sox to the playoffs for the first time since 2008.

A LETTER

After discussing the Mets fan "loyalty letter" with friends, they suggested I write one on behalf of the Cubs.  This is what I wrote:

Five score and six years ago, our fathers brought forth in this city, a new championship, conceived in grit and determination, and dedicated to the proposition that all Cub fans are loyal and true.

Now we are engaged in a great civil unrest - - -  we can not hit - - - we can not field - - - on this hallow ground, Wrigley Field. The players, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated this franchise, far above fans power to add or detract victories. The baseball world will little note, no long remember, what we say today, but we can never forget what the 1908 Cubs did. That is for us, the living fan, rather, to be dedicated to the Cubs cause and the unfinished work which those champions fought as so nobly advanced. It is rather for us fans to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us - - - to support a failing franchise - - - so that these champion dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the full measure of devotion - - - that we highly resolve here that these dead champions shall not have died in vain - - - that this Cub nation, under Ricketts, shall have a new birth of performance - - - and that the support of the fans, by the fans, for the fans, shall not perish from this season.

STAGES

The New York Mets blasted an email throughout its mailing lists this week which took many off guard. It was basically a letter to their fan base extolling them to take a "loyalty oath" to support the team, especially in the upcoming series against the Yankees.

Now, why would a bunch of ex-Met players sign on to this letter is unclear. But the tone of the email got several writers, including a New York Post columnist in an angry mood. He reminded the team that the team has been horrible for the last several years. That the team did little to change the steady decline since its last playoff appearance. The franchise had been rocked by ownership scandal (the Madoff case) and fans were asked to pay more and more for a lesser product on the field.

The Mets may have misread the fans anger against ownership and management as losing interest in the team. But, in some circles, an angry fan base shows their passion for their team. They don't like losing, and neither should the team.

The takeaway from this controversy was anger is good; apathy is death.

In some respects, the Cubs are in worse shape than the Mets. The Mets are averaging 27,000 at Citifield (19th in the majors) while the Cubs are scrapping around 30,000 per home game. But the Cubs no-shows seem to have been accelerating the past two seasons. That is the most important signal of the state of the fan base.

There are several stages to a fan's appreciation of their team. First is basic joy to watch and experience their team play the sport at a high level. But if the team starts to lose regularly, or starts to look like the players are not hustling (or just going through the motions), then indifference sets in. Indifference is the "take it or leave it" attitude on whether to go or watch a game. A fan becomes a neutral observer (at best) rather than an interested spectator. The next stage is anger. When a fan gets angry, he knows what is wrong with his team. He knows how to solve the problems he sees with his team. But he is angry that the team is not correcting those mistakes or making any effort to change for the better. Anger is a high energy state of mind which can easily drain a fan's passion so he turns to apathy for his team.

Apathy is lack of interest, enthusiasm, or concern. Apathy is the kiss of death for a professional sports franchise. If a fan lacks interest, enthusiasm or concern for the daily ups and downs of his team, then the team loses someone who has in the past spend his or her time, money and resources to support the franchise. Apathy means lower attendance. Apathy means lower concession and licensing sales of merchandise. Apathy means lower television and broadcast ratings.  All of those things are happening to the Cubs.

Since the second year of Ricketts ownership, the Cubs have gone from a contending team to a pretender. Even the anger that the Cubs have been tanking their last two seasons in order to get highly regarded draft prospects as part of the rebuilding plan has started to wane as those touted prospects have never reached the majors.

When die-hard Cub fans become indifferent, it is a quick and slippery slope to apathy.

BREAK-OUT SEASON PROBLEMS

The New York Mets have a unique problem. One of their starting pitchers had a break-out season. And he won the NL Cy Young.  That should be a good problem to have, especially for the Mets franchise.

But the player is R.A. Dickey. The issues are:

1. He is 38 years old.
2. He is a knuckleball pitcher.
3. He has a had an average journeyman career.
4. He probably wants an expensive extension.
5. Knuckleball pitchers have inconsistent careers.

Dickey's career was unremarkable. He debuted in a short stint with the Rangers in 2001 at age 26. In 2003 and 2004 he was a part time starter, going 9-8 and 6-7 with ERAs over 5.00. He bounced around Seattle and Minnesota. In 2009, he went 1-1. 4.62 ERA in 35 games (1 start) for the Twins.
In 2010, he landed with the Mets as a starter and had is best year: 11-9, 2.84 ERA in 174 IP.  At age 36, the Mets signed him to a 3 year/$12.5 million deal.

Dickey was the first knuckleballer to win the Cy Young. He was also a late bloomer. Those two things go against a player. Knuckleball or junk pitchers are usually gimmicks players use to try to extend their careers a year or two. Knuckleballers have consistently and control problems. The only advantage of one is that there is less strain on the shoulder or arm. They become innings eaters, like Dickey last season with a league high 233.2 IP.

Most teams do not favor knuckleballers in the rotation. First, most scouts prefer balanced power pitchers who have an "out" pitch (a curve or a change). Second, most general managers prefer pitchers with multiple pitches (fastball, curve, change or slider) which gives managers more flexibility in case a pitcher does not have one pitch working during that start. Third, it takes a special catcher to catch a knuckleballer. Since most of the pitchers may go anywhere, including the dirt, it takes a toll on a catcher's back and knees. Fourth, the velocity of a knuckleball is dramatically less than a normal major league pitch. As a result, most good hitters can adjust quickly. And once a knuckler fails to knuckle, it turns into batting practice at 65 mph. Fifth, knuckleballs are difficult to throw for strikes. That leads to higher on-base percentages for opponents, and potential big innings.

Dickey throws his knuckleball "harder" than most pitchers of the genre. His knuckler is thrown in the high 70s. The twist with Dickey is that he throws his knuckle ball at two different speeds (one, 73-75, the other 76-80.) Most pitching coaches preach that the change in velocity of a pitch is a pitcher's greatest weapon against a major league hitter. It throws off the hitter's timing.

So Dickey is a unique pitcher. But he is also a pitcher that throws an historically inconsistent pitch.

Pitching is a premium in baseball. Dickey is an innings eater. He had a career year. The problem with the Mets is that Dickey will be asking for a contract extension. Is it good to sign a pitcher into their 40s? Or is it better to trade Dickey when his "value" as a starter is at its peak? Dickey went 20-6, 2.73 ERA in 34 games in 2012.

The Mets went 77-88, finishing 4th in the NL East. The team is caught in a near-rebuilding mode. They have two young pitchers who can compete for rotation spots. It is probably a coin flip of what the Mets will do with Dickey this off-season.